Golden Globe Predictions and No Guts, No Glory!

by Sasha Stone

December 8, 2025

in BEST PICTURE, featured, No Guts No Glory, Uncategorized

Golden Globe Predictions and No Guts, No Glory!

The Golden Globes will announce tomorrow morning. You still have time to enter our contest. Click here. You can change it if you’d like up to the minute (if you picked Eva Victor for Musical/Comedy actress, she is in drama so you can redo your form).

The new Globes, as we call them, are roughly 300 or so international voters, many of them hand-picked to diversify the membership, and we don’t have a long enough history to go by. They aren’t the lifers that the Globes used to be. We could predict them based on a few key facts — they liked movie stars, they liked to mingle, and they were favorable to certain studios. But also, we kind of knew their tastes. These newbie voters, however, remain unpredictable and certainly no one should use them as any kind of strict barometer of how the Academy might vote, with the sole exception of the fact that the Academy did roughly the same thing: they added 3,000 voters over a period of a couple of years to diversify their membership. These are largely international voters. So there is some overlap.

Fernanda Torres winning Best Actress was a good sign she was going on to be nominated at the Oscars, along with I’m Still Here. But The Brutalist and Emilia Perez winning did not indicate the Anora sweep or the Mikey Madison win.

The Globes, like the Critics Choice, have six slots for nominees, making it less hard to predict than getting the five right for the Oscars. But since they divide their categories into Drama and Musical/Comedy, that leaves open some slots for contenders who might not show up anywhere else, especially in the drama category this year with so much of the heat in Musical/Comedy.

Those of us who have been predicting a long time usually default to the big stars when predicting the Globes. But these new voters are not as enamored with them so that makes it tricky. New pundits tend to over sample the international fare (I think) and lean in too much to the Cannes of it all. But who knows, the times they are a-changing and Hollywood is a-dying.

As I’ve said time and time again, the Oscars can help the film industry by shrinking Best Picture down to five and having some criteria about the movies nominated (wide release, made by a studio, etc). But the Globes have never been in the business of saving Hollywood like the Oscars traditionally were. So they are more or less free to do whatever they want.

There is however the detail of the Penske situation and how owning the Golden Globes, along with Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, Indiewire, Gold Derby and Rolling Stone has gummed up the works. There was, as I recall, some kind of massive buyout by studios to Penske and Co. to spend upwards of $100K to sit Globes voters down with “talent” of a movie, like Emilia Perez for instance. We have no idea how that has gone this year or who paid the big bucks but I think you can probably figure that out once the nominations drop on Monday.

Either way, here are our predictions for the Golden Globes! No Guts, No Glory at the end.

Sasha Stone

BEST PICTURE DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. Weapons
4. Frankenstein
5. It Was Just an Accident
6. Train Dreams

BEST DIRECTOR
————————————————————
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
3. Jodie Foster, A Private Life
4. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
5. Eva Victor, Sorry Baby
6. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
2. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
5. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
6. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

BEST FILM MUSICAL/COMEDY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Bugonia
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Jay Kelly
6. The Testament of Ann Lee

BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Emma Stone, Bugonia
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
6. Daniel Craig, Wake Up Dead Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
6. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

BEST FILM SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sinners
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Sentimental Value
6. Train Dreams

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
————————————————————
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Scarlet
6. Ne Zha 2

BEST NON-ENGLISH FILM
————————————————————
1. The Secret Agent
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. No Other Choice
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab
6. Sirat

BEST SCORE
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Wicked For Good
6. Train Dreams

Scott Kernen

BEST PICTURE DRAMA
————————————————————
1. It Was Just an Accident
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Sentimental Value
5. Frankenstein
6. The Secret Agent

BEST DIRECTOR
————————————————————
1. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
3. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
5. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
6. Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib

BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
3. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
5. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
6. Eva Victor, Sorry Baby

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
2. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
3. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
4. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
5. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
6. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

BEST FILM MUSICAL/COMEDY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Bugonia
4. No Other Choice
5. Jay Kelly
6. The Testament of Ann Lee

BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Emma Stone, Bugonia
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
6. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
6. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

BEST FILM SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Bugonia
6. Marty Supreme

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
————————————————————
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
3. Arco
4. Zootopia 2
5. In Your Dreams
6. Elio

BEST NON-ENGLISH FILM
————————————————————
1. It Was Just an Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab
6. Sound of Falling

BEST SCORE
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme
6. The Testament of Ann Lee

Jeremy Jentzen

BEST PICTURE DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Hamnet
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. Frankenstein
4. Train Dreams
5. Sentimental Value
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST DIRECTOR
————————————————————
1. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
2. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
4. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
3. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
5. Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?
6. Sydney Sweeney, Christy

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
————————————————————
1. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
2. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
3. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
4. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
5. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
6. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

BEST FILM MUSICAL/COMEDY
————————————————————
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Bugonia
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Jay Kelly
6. Wake Up Dead Man

BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
2. Emma Stone, Bugonia
3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
6. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
————————————————————
1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
6. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
————————————————————
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

BEST FILM SCREENPLAY
————————————————————
1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sentimental Value
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme
6. It Was Just an Accident

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
————————————————————
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Scarlet
6. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

BEST NON-ENGLISH FILM
————————————————————
1. It Was Just an Accident
2. The Secret Agent
3. Sentimental Value
4. No Other Choice
5. Sirat
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab

BEST SCORE
————————————————————
1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme
6. Train Dreams

Our No Guts, No Glory

Sasha Stone

Best Picture, Drama: Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere
Best Actor, Drama: Brad Pitt, F1
Best Actress, Drama: Sydney Sweeney in for Christy

Scott Kernen

1. Hind Rajab in Director
2. Eva Victor in Actress Drama
3. Wicked For Good snubbed in musical/comedy

Jeremy Jentzen

1. Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent) in for director

2. Song Sung Blue in Picture, Actor and Actress Comedy/Musical

3. Weapons gets in for picture and Julia Garner