PreReason tracks 38 financial metrics across Bitcoin, macro, derived, and mining categories. Each metric includes trend direction, momentum signals, percentile rankings, and confidence scores.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics (11)
Bitcoin Price: Current Bitcoin spot price in US dollars, updated every 2 minutes (CoinGecko)
Bitcoin Market Cap: Total Bitcoin market capitalization in USD (CoinGecko)
Bitcoin 24h Volume: Total Bitcoin trading volume over the past 24 hours in USD (CoinGecko)
Bitcoin 24h Change: Bitcoin price change percentage over the last 24 hours (CoinGecko)
Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin market cap percentage of total crypto market (CoinGecko)
Bitcoin Hash Rate: Total Bitcoin network computational hash rate in EH/s (Blockchain.com)
5-Year Treasury Yield: 5-year Treasury constant maturity rate (DGS5, daily). Belly of the curve; intermediate-term rate expectations.
30-Year Treasury Yield: 30-year Treasury constant maturity rate (DGS30, daily). Long-end real growth and inflation risk premium.
5-Year Breakeven Inflation: 5-year breakeven inflation rate (T5YIE, daily): difference between nominal and TIPS yield, the markets near-term inflation expectation.
10-Year Breakeven Inflation: 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE, daily): difference between nominal and TIPS yield, the markets medium-term inflation expectation.
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation: 5-year forward inflation expectation 5 years ahead (T5YIFR, daily). Cleanest available read of long-run inflation expectations stripped of near-term noise.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the US (MORTGAGE30US, weekly). Input to mortgage-treasury-spread derived metric.
10Y Treasury Auction Bid-to-Cover: Bid-to-cover ratio at the most recent 10-year Treasury note auction (TreasuryDirect). Above 2.5 reflects strong demand; below 2.0 signals weak demand.
30Y Treasury Auction Bid-to-Cover: Bid-to-cover ratio at the most recent 30-year Treasury bond auction (TreasuryDirect). Long-end demand thermometer.
Indirect Bidder Percentage: Share of accepted bids at the latest Treasury auction taken by indirect bidders (often foreign central banks and asset managers). Higher values indicate strong foreign / institutional sponsorship.
Primary Dealer Takedown Percentage: Share of accepted bids at the latest Treasury auction absorbed by primary dealers. High values often indicate weak end-buyer demand and dealers stepping in to fill the auction.
Days to Next Treasury Auction: Number of calendar days until the next scheduled Treasury auction (any tenor). Calendar lookahead to anticipate supply pressure on yields.
Effective Federal Funds Rate: The effective rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances overnight (FRED DFF, daily). Primary US monetary policy stance indicator.
ECB Deposit Facility Rate: European Central Bank rate paid on overnight deposits placed by euro area banks (FRED ECBDFR, daily). The de facto floor of the ECB policy corridor.
Bank of Japan Policy Rate: BOJ short-term policy rate target (FRED IRSTCB01JPM156N, monthly). Anchors the global carry-trade yield differential.
JPY/USD Exchange Rate: Yen per US Dollar (FRED DEXJPUS, daily). Higher = JPY weaker. Combined with fed-boj-spread for the full carry-trade-returns-proxy calculation.
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price: Brent crude oil price in USD per barrel (FRED DCOILBRENTEU, daily). The international oil benchmark.
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price: West Texas Intermediate crude oil price in USD per barrel (FRED DCOILWTICO, daily). The US oil benchmark, settled at Cushing OK.
CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX): CBOE OVX index measuring 30-day implied volatility on the USO oil ETF (FRED OVXCLS, daily). Oil-market analog to VIX. Spikes during oil supply shocks or demand collapses.
Weekly U.S. Crude Oil Ending Stocks: Total US crude oil inventory in thousand barrels (EIA WCESTUS1, weekly). Sourced from EIA opendata API directly. Requires EIA_API_KEY env var.
Weekly Working Gas in Storage (Lower 48): Total working natural gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 states, billion cubic feet (EIA NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF, weekly). Sourced from EIA opendata API directly.
GLD Daily Volume: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) daily share volume (Yahoo Finance v8 chart). Foundation for etf-gld-volume-zscore-30d.
USO Daily Volume: United States Oil Fund (USO) daily share volume (Yahoo Finance v8 chart). Foundation for etf-uso-volume-zscore-30d.
UUP Daily Volume: Invesco DB US Dollar (UUP) daily share volume (Yahoo Finance v8 chart). Foundation for etf-uup-volume-zscore-30d.
SPY (S&P 500 ETF): SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust - proxy for S&P 500 index (updates every 15 min)
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF): Invesco QQQ Trust - proxy for Nasdaq 100 index (updates every 15 min)
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): iShares Russell 2000 ETF - small cap proxy (updates every 15 min)
VXX (Volatility ETF): iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX - volatility proxy (updates every 15 min)
UUP (US Dollar ETF): Invesco DB US Dollar Index - DXY proxy (updates every 15 min)
GLD (Gold ETF): SPDR Gold Shares - gold spot price proxy (updates every 15 min during market hours)
GDX (Gold Miners ETF): VanEck Gold Miners ETF - basket of senior gold mining equities. GLD/GDX ratio is a classic miner-margin proxy.
GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF): VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF - basket of junior/exploration gold miners. GDXJ/GDX ratio is a risk-on / risk-off intra-mining indicator.
SLV (Silver ETF): iShares Silver Trust - silver bullion proxy (updates every 15 min during market hours)
SIL (Silver Miners ETF): Global X Silver Miners ETF - silver mining equity basket. SLV/SIL ratio mirrors the GLD/GDX miner-margin signal in silver.
USO (Oil Fund): United States Oil Fund - WTI crude oil futures-tracking ETF (updates every 15 min during market hours)
UNG (Natural Gas Fund): United States Natural Gas Fund - Henry Hub natural gas futures-tracking ETF (updates every 15 min during market hours)
CPER (Copper Fund): United States Copper Index Fund - SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return tracking ETF (updates every 15 min during market hours)
WEAT (Wheat Fund): Teucrium Wheat Fund - CBOT wheat futures-tracking ETF (updates every 15 min during market hours)
TLT (Long Treasury ETF): iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - long-duration Treasury bond proxy (updates every 15 min during market hours)
FXE (Euro ETF): Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust - euro spot currency proxy. Cross-checks the FRED EUR/USD series with a market-tradable instrument.
FXY (Japanese Yen ETF): Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust - yen spot currency proxy. Cross-checks the FRED JPY/USD series with a market-tradable instrument.
Calculated / Derived Metrics (54)
Treasury 10Y minus 3M Spread: Difference between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields (DGS10 - DGS3MO). Classic NY Fed recession indicator: persistent inversion historically precedes US recessions by 6-18 months.
Fed Funds minus ECB Deposit Spread: Difference between the effective Fed Funds rate and the ECB Deposit Facility rate. Tracks the relative tightness of US versus euro area monetary policy.
Fed Funds minus BOJ Policy Spread: Difference between the effective Fed Funds rate and the BOJ short-term policy rate. The widest leg of the global carry trade.
JPY Carry Trade Returns Proxy: Proxy for short-JPY long-USD carry-trade returns: rate-differential carry from fed-boj-spread combined with JPY/USD spot performance. Positive when the carry is paying off.
Carry Trade Returns Velocity (1d): 1-day change in carry-trade-returns-proxy. Sharp negative readings can flag carry unwinds (risk-off contagion).
Mortgage minus Treasury Spread: 30-year fixed mortgage rate minus the 10-year Treasury yield (MORTGAGE30US - DGS10). Widens during credit stress; compresses during easy-credit regimes.
IWM minus SPY 30d Credit Spread Proxy: Difference between SPY and IWM 30-day returns. When small caps lag the broad market, credit conditions are typically tightening (rough proxy for high-yield OAS widening).
SPY-VXX 30d Correlation: Rolling 30-day Pearson correlation of daily SPY and VXX returns. Normally strongly negative; readings near zero or positive can signal a regime change in equity-volatility dynamics.
Regime Stability Flag: Count of cross-regime input signals (net-liquidity, DXY, treasury-10y, hash-ribbon, SPY, VXX) that flipped 7d direction over the last 24h. 0 = perfectly stable; 6 = chaotic.
10-Year Real Treasury Rate: Treasury 10Y nominal yield minus 10Y breakeven inflation (DGS10 - T10YIE). The foundational driver of dollar strength: rising real rates pull capital toward USD; falling real rates support gold and risk assets.
Brent-WTI Spread: International (Brent) minus US (WTI) crude oil price in USD per barrel. Wider Brent premium reflects supply tightness in international waters (e.g., shipping disruptions). Negative readings (WTI > Brent) often coincide with US oversupply.
GLD 1h Velocity: 1-hour percentage change in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) intraday quote. Measures gold-spot tape acceleration during market hours.
CPER 1h Velocity: 1-hour percentage change in United States Copper Index Fund (CPER). Industrial-demand intraday tape signal during market hours.
USO 1h Velocity: 1-hour percentage change in United States Oil Fund (USO). Crude-oil intraday tape signal during market hours.
UUP 1h Velocity: 1-hour percentage change in Invesco DB US Dollar ETF (UUP). Dollar intraday tape signal during market hours.
Crude Oil Inventory 30d Z-Score: Rolling 30-day Z-score of weekly EIA crude oil ending stocks. Positive = building inventory above the trailing window (bearish oil); negative = drawing below (bullish oil).
Natural Gas Storage 30d Z-Score: Rolling 30-day Z-score of weekly EIA Lower-48 working gas in storage. Positive = inventory building above trailing window; negative = drawing below.
ECB minus BOJ Policy Spread: Difference between the ECB Deposit Facility rate and the BOJ short-term policy rate. Third leg of the Fed/ECB/BOJ policy-divergence triangle.
GLD Volume 30d Z-Score: Rolling 30-day Z-score of GLD daily volume. Positive = above-trend volume (heavy participation); negative = below-trend (thin participation). Powers volume-confirmation in commodities.gold + commodities.momentum.
USO Volume 30d Z-Score: Rolling 30-day Z-score of USO daily volume. Powers volume-confirmation in commodities.oil + commodities.momentum.
UUP Volume 30d Z-Score: Rolling 30-day Z-score of UUP daily volume. Powers volume-confirmation in fx.usd + fx.momentum.
Net Liquidity: Net liquidity proxy - Fed balance sheet minus reverse repo and Treasury account balances
Hash Ribbon: Hash rate momentum indicator - 30-day vs 60-day moving average ratio
MVRV Proxy: Market value to realized value estimate - gauges whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued
USDT Dominance: USDT share of total crypto market cap - risk-off/risk-on sentiment gauge
BTC 200-Day MA: 200-day simple moving average of BTC price, a key institutional support/resistance level
BTC Distance from 200D MA: Percentage distance of BTC price from its 200-day MA, measuring overextension or support proximity
Spot BTC ETF Net Flow (Daily): Daily net inflow/outflow across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs in USD millions (Farside Investors)
BTC 1-Hour Price Change %: Percentage change in Bitcoin price over the last hour, derived from price history (hourly cadence)
Raw Hashprice (Tick): Hashprice (USD per TH/s/day) recomputed on every CoinGecko price tick using the same formula as hourly hashprice
On-Chain Velocity (30d): Rolling 30-day on-chain transaction volume divided by current Bitcoin market cap, measuring network throughput intensity
Bitcoin Volume Z-Score (30d): D-097 confirmation/exhaustion overlay: standard-deviation distance of current 24h volume from the trailing 30-day mean
Mining & Energy Metrics (8)
Available through mining and energy briefings, not as standalone API endpoints.
Hashprice: Daily mining revenue per terahash per second. The core profitability metric for Bitcoin miners.
Hashprice 7d Smoothed: Seven-day simple moving average of hashprice. Dampens daily volatility from fee spikes and data lag.
Epoch Pace: Percentage deviation of actual block production time from the 10-minute target. Indicates whether the next difficulty adjustment will increase or decrease.
BTC Production Cost: Estimated cost to produce one Bitcoin, calculated across three tiers: electricity-only, cash operating expenses, and fully-loaded all-in cost.
Price-to-Production Ratio: Bitcoin market price divided by the Tier 2 (cash OPEX) production cost. Shows whether miners are operating profitably.
Gas Input Cost: Natural gas price converted to electricity-equivalent cost per kWh. Represents the energy input cost for gas-powered mining operations.
Energy Pressure: Composite signal measuring whether energy input costs are rising or falling relative to their recent trend. Combines multiple cost sources into a single directional indicator.
Natural Gas Price: Henry Hub natural gas spot price in $/MMBtu. The primary commodity input for gas-powered Bitcoin mining operations.