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5.2DiscreteRandomVariables|STAT200
STAT200
ElementaryStatistics
5.2DiscreteRandomVariables
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Probabilitydistribution:Atable,graph,orformulathatgivestheprobabilityofagivenoutcome'soccurrence
ProbabilityDistribution
Foradiscreterandomvariable,itsprobabilitydistribution(alsocalledtheprobabilitydistributionfunction)is
anytable,graph,orformulathatgiveseachpossiblevalueandtheprobabilityofthatvalue.
Note:Thetotalofallprobabilitiesacrossthedistributionmustbe1,andeachindividualprobabilitymustbe
between0and1,inclusive.
Example
Whatifweflippedafaircoinfourtimes?Whatarethepossibleoutcomes
andwhatistheprobabilityofeach?
Figure1belowisaprobabilitydistributionforthenumberofheadsin4
flipsofacoin.GiventhatP(Heads)=.50,theprobabilityofnotflipping
headsatallis1/16,or.0625.In6.25%ofalltrials,wecanexpectthat
therewillbenoheads.ThismaybewrittenasP(X=0)=.0625.Similarly,theprobabilityofflipping
headsonceinfourtrialsis4/16,or.25.In25%ofalltrials,wecanexpectthatheadswillbeflipped
exactlyonce.ThismaybewrittenasP(X=1)=.25.
Thisprobabilitydistributioncouldbeconstructedbylistingall16possiblesequencesofheadsand
tailsforfourflips(i.e.,HHHH,HTHH,HTTH,HTTT,etc.),andthencountinghowmanysequences
thereareforeachpossiblenumberofheads.Or,insection5.4youwillseehowthesecouldbe
computedusingbinomialrandomvariabletechniques.
Figure1.ProbabilityDistributionforNumberofHeadsin4FlipsofaCoin
Heads
Probability
1/16
4/16
6/16
4/16
1/16
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5.2DiscreteRandomVariables|STAT200
Example
Acensuswasconductedatauniversity.Allstudentswereaskedhow
manytattoostheyhad.
Figure2presentsaprobabilitydistributionforthediscretevariableof
numberoftattoosforeachstudent.Fromthistablewecanfindthat85%
ofstudentsinthepopulationdonothaveatattoo,12%ofstudentsinthe
populationhaveonetattoo,1.5%ofstudentsinthepopulationhavetwotattoos,andsoon.Thiscould
bewrittenasP(X=0)=.85,P(X=1)=.12,P(X=2)=.015,etc.
Figure2.ProbabiltyDistributionforNumberofTattoosEachStudentHasina
PopulationofStudents
Tattoos
Probability
.850
.120
.015
.010
.005
CumulativeProbabilities
Cumulativeprobability:Likelihoodofanoutcomelessthanorequaltoagivenvalueoccuring
Tofindacumulativeprobabilityweaddtheprobabilitiesforallvaluesqualifyingas"lessthanorequal"tothe
specifiedvalue.
Example
Supposewewanttoknowtheprobabilitythatthenumberofheadsinfourflipsislessthantwo.Ifwe
letXrepresentnumberofheadswegetonfourflipsofacoin,then:
Becausethisisadiscretedistribution,theprobabilityofflippinglessthantwoheadsisequalto
flippingoneorzeroheads:
P (X < 2) = P (X = 0 1)
Theprobabilityofflipping1headandtheprobabilityofflipping0headsaremutuallyexclusive
events.Thus,P (0 1) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)
WecanusethevaluesfromFigure1abovetosolvethisequation.
P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = (1/16) + (4/16) = 5/16
Cumulativedistribution:Alistingofallpossiblevaluesalongwiththeprobabilityofthatvalueandalllower
valuesoccuring(i.e.,thecumulativeprobability)
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5.2DiscreteRandomVariables|STAT200
Example
Cumulativeprobabilitiesarefoundbyaddingtheprobabilityuptoeachcolumnofthetable.InFigure
3wefindthecumulativeprobabilityforoneheadbyaddingtheprobabilitiesforzeroandone.The
cumulativeprobabilityfortwoheadsisfoundbyaddingtheprobabilitiesforzero,one,andtwo.We
continuewiththisprocedureuntilwereachthemaximumnumberofheads,inthiscasefour,which
shouldhaveacumulativeprobabilityof1.00because100%oftrialsmusthavefourorfewerheads.
Figure3.ProbabilityDistributionandCumulativeDistributionforNumberof
Headsin4Flips.
Heads
Probability
1/16
4/16
6/16
4/16
1/16
Cumulative
Probability
1/16
5/16
11/16
15/16
Example
Let'sconstructacumulativedistributionforthedataconcerningnumberoftattoos.
Figure4.ProbabilityDistributionandCumulativeDistributionforNumberof
TattoosEachStudentHasinaPopulationofStudents.
Tattoos
Probability
.850
.120
.015
.010
.005
Cumulative
Probability
.850
.970
.985
.995
Notethatthecumulativeprobabilityforthelastcolumnisalways1.Thatis,100%oftrialswillbelessthanor
equaltothemaximumvalue.
5.1RandomVariables(/stat200/node/142)
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5.3ExpectedValueofaDiscreteRandom
(/stat200/node/34)
Variable(/stat200/node/36)
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