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 ? Hepatitis?

? Hepatitis,
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#( jaundice and hepatitis)

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 ? Hepatitis?

? Hepatitis,
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BloodTest

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P(H=1) P(H=0)
H
0.05 0.95
h P(B=1 | H=h) P(B=0 | H=h)

1 0.95 0.05 B
0 0.03 0.97
h b P(J=1|h,b) P(J=0|h,b)
J
1 1 0.8 0.2

Node ~ Variable 1 0 0.8 0.2

0 1 0.3 0.7
Link ~ Causal dependency 0 0 0.3 0.7
CPTable ~ P(child | parents)
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P(J | H, B=0) = P(J | H, B=1) J, H !

P( J | H, B) = P(J | H)
J is INDEPENDENT of B, once we know H
Dont need B J arc!
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P(J | H, B=0) = P(J | H, B=1) J, H !

P( J | H, B) = P(J | H)
J is INDEPENDENT of B, once we know H
Dont need B J arc!
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Requires: P(H=1) known

P(J=1 | H=1) known
P(B=1 | H=1) known
(Only 5 parameters, not 7)

P(J=0 | H=1)
1
Hence: P(H=1 | B=1, J=0 ) = P(H=1) P(B=1 | H=1) P(J=0 |B=1,H=1)

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P(J=0 | B=1, H=1) = P(J=0 | H=1)

N.b., B and J ARE correlated a priori P(J | B ) P(J)

GIVEN H, they become uncorrelated P(J | B, H) = P(J | H)
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H Hepatitis P( B | J ) P(B) but
J Jaundice P( B | J,H ) = P(B|H)
B (positive) Blood test

ReadingAbility and ShoeSize are dependent,

P( ReadAbility | ShoeSize ) P( ReadAbility )
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P( ReadAbility | ShoeSize, Age ) = P( ReadAbility | Age )

Age

ShoeSize Reading
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If Alcohol, then expect Jaundice: Alcohol Hepatitis Jaundice

But only via Hepatitis: Alcohol and not Hepatitis Jaundice

P( J | A ) P( J ) but A
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