Chapter 2

Human development
and work: progress
and challenges
Infographic: Work engages the majority of people in the world

What 7.3 billion people do:

Insuffic
Suffi

No pension
ient pe

s
cien

Student
t pe our

nsion
Ch i
ch

ld l
nsio
ild
ho Not

ab

n
od in
ed ea
uc rly Older 4
ati
on than 6
million)
(582 W

ork
ing
-age
)
Children (1.9 billion

or
d nonpo
Employe

population (4.6 billion)

In school

r
l a bou ed
c
ced pla ed
For ly dis ploy
cib em
For Un
r
than g poo
day)

Unpa
(less Workin
$2 a

id ca
re

and what it means for human development:

Working-age population Children Older than 64
Enabling human potential
Students In school Sufficient pension
Employed nonpoor
Unpaid care workers
Not in early
Working poor Insufficient pension
childhood education
(less than $2 a day)
Unemployed
Forcibly displaced

Thwarting human potential Forced labour Child labour No pension

2.
Human development and work:
progressandchallenges
Over the past two decades, the world has made major strides in human development. Today, people are living longer, more
children are going to school and more people have access to clean water and basic sanitation. This progress goes hand
in hand with increasing incomes, leading to the highest standards of living in human history. A digital revolution connects
people across societies and countries. Just as important, political developments enable more people than ever to live under
democratic regimes. All these are important facets of human development.

The activities of 7.3billion people have con- The scale of human progress
tributed to this human progress in various and contributions of work
forms (see infographic at the beginning of the
chapter). Work has helped people achieve a Progress is evident for many measures of hu-
better standard of livingnot only in terms man developmentsuch as those for health,
of income, but also in terms of health and education, income, security and participation
education, major ingredients for enhancing ca- and for such composite indicators as the
pabilities. Work has also provided people with Human Development Index (HDI).
security, contributed to womens empower-
ment and enhanced participation in different Trends on the Human
spheres of human lives. Development Index
However, there are marked differences
in progress among regions, across countries In almost 25 years the world HDI value has
and within countries. Furthermore, serious increased by more than 20 percent and that
human deprivations remain, and the world of the least developed countries by more than
faces persistent inequality, along with climate 40percent. Every region of the world has seen
change and social, economic and environ- HDI gains. Over time and across all developing
mental vulnerabilities that could reverse regions, progress has been fairly steady, though
human advances and constrain wider choices at a slower pace during the last 15 years, with
for everyone. most having moved up through the human
At the same time, considerable human development classifications (figure 2.1).
potential remains unused. Millions of people These changes are also reflected in the num- Work has helped
are either out of work or working but still in ber of countries in each human development
poverty. Even though young people account classification. Between 1990 and 2014 for people achieve a
for around half the global population (and an 156 countries with comparable data covering better level of human
even larger share in some regions because of 98percent of the worlds population in 2014, development
a youth bulge), millions of young people are the number of countries in the very high hu-
unemployed, depriving the world of their dy- man development classification rose from 12
namism, creativity and innovation. Similarly, to 46, as the population in that group climbed
the employment potential of women remains from 0.5billion to 1.2billion. Over the same
substantially unused in various parts of the period the number of countries in the low hu-
world. man development classification fell from 62 to
Overcoming the existing human depriva- 43, as the population in that group fell from
tions and addressing the emerging human 3.2billion to 1.2billion (figure 2.2).
development challenges will require optimal Progress on the HDI has been considerable
use of the worlds human potential. Such use at the country level. For example, Ethiopia
would also accelerate the achievements in hu- increased its HDI value by more than half;
man development to date and impart human Rwanda by nearly half; five countries, includ-
progress with greater resilience. ing Angola and Zambia, by more than a third;

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 55

 FIGURE 2.1

Progress on the Human Development Index since 1990 has been fairly steady over time and across all
developing regions

Human development classification

Very high
0.800 or greater
Latin America &
High the Caribbean
0.7000.799 Europe & Central Asia
East Asia & the Pacific
Arab States
Medium
0.5500.699
South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa
Low
Less than
0.550

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Source: Human Development Report Office calculations.

and 23 countries, including Bangladesh, the

FIGURE 2.2 Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nepal,
by more than a fifth. It is also encouraging that
Between 1990 and 2014 the number of people
the fastest progress was among low human de-
living in countries in higher human development
classifications rose, while the number of people velopment countries.
living in countries in the low human development But it also reminds us that there is no automat-
classification fell ic link between income and human development.
Income enters into the HDI but is just one of its
People (billions) four indicators. Economic growth does not auto-
matically translate into higher human develop-
7
Very high ment. Equatorial Guinea and Chile have similar
human
6 development gross national incomes per capita (in purchasing
power parity terms) but different HDI values;
There is no automatic 5 High human by contrast, Gabon and Indonesia have different
development incomes but similar HDI values (figure 2.3).
link between work and 4 Improvements in overall HDI value were
human development also paced by progress in all HDI component
3
indicators, as well as in many of the non-HDI
Medium human
2 development dimensions of human developmentincome
poverty and hunger, health, education, gender
1 equality, access to basic social services, envi-
Low human ronmental sustainability and participation (see
0 development table A2.1 at the end of the chapter).
1990 2000 2014

Work has contributed to human

Note: Data are from a panel of 156 countries.
Source: Human Development Report Office calculations.
development achievements

The various activities of 7.3billion people have

contributed to human progress. Nearly a billion

56 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

people who work in agriculture and more than Innovations driven by creative expression FIGURE 2.3
500million family farms, which produce more are taking place in many other areas of work,
There is no automatic link
than 80percent of the worlds food, have con- including health, energy and finance, with the
between income and human
tributed to better health and nutrition of the potential to improve lives. When people are development, 2014
global population.1 Worldwide, the work of innovative and creative in their work, they can
Similar income, different HDI value
80 million workers in health and education advance human progress by making leaps in
has helped enhance human capabilities.2 More health care, education and other areas rather 25 .900
than a billion workers in services have contrib- than limiting advances to small increments. For 20
Chile
.800
uted to human progress.3 In China and India example, immunotherapy tries to enhance the Equatorial
15 .700
23million jobs were created in clean energy, al- immunity of healthy cells, rather than focusing Guinea
lowing workers to contribute to environmental on cancer cells, so that a bodys enhanced im- 10 .600

sustainability.4 munity can isolate the cancer cells and destroy 5 .500
Work undertaken for the care of others has them. This has been hailed as a new pillar in the
0 .400
contributed not only to accelerating and pro- war against cancer, particularly for lung cancer,
Income Human
tecting human development for present gen- which kills 354,000 Europeans and 158,000 (GNI per capita, Development
erations (for example, through care for older Americans every year.9 In energy the glass for thousands) Index

people and people with disabilities), but also buildings and cars has been designed to make
to creating human capabilities (for example, electricity from sunlight. Solar Impulse is an Same HDI value, different income
through care work for children). Care work experiment in solar-powered flight. Automated 25 .800

can be paid or unpaid and includes household wealth managers can offer sound financial ad- 20 .700
activities such as cooking, cleaning and collect- vice for a small fraction of the cost of a real-life Gabon
15 .600
ing water and fuelwood as well as tending to adviser. Indonesia
children, older people and the sick. When care More than 970million people62percent 10 .500

work is paid, it is often referred to as domestic of them in low- and lower middle-income 5 .400
work. The International Labour Organization countries, 12percent in upper middle-income
0 .300
estimates that there are at least 53million paid countries and 26 percent in high-income
Income Human
adult domestic workers worldwide, 83percent countrieswho engage in volunteer activity (GNI per capita, Development
of them women, and the number may be rising. each year have helped families and communi- thousands) Index

Between 1995 and 2010 the share of domestic ties, improving social cohesion and contrib- Source: Human Development Report Office
workers in total employment rose from nearly uting to the public good. Around two-thirds calculations.

6percent to 8percent in Latin America and the of volunteer work is performed in informal
Caribbean; it also rose in the Middle East and settings or through community mechanisms,
in Asia and the Pacific.5 This work is critical for such as watching a neighbours children, house
present and future human development. sitting and the like. The rest is channelled
Work has a societal value that goes beyond through organizations, typically nonprofits.
the gains of individual workers. More than The economic size of the volunteer economy
450 million entrepreneurs have contributed is estimated as equivalent to 2.4 percent of
to human innovation and creativity.6 Art con- global GDP.10 Older people in many countries
tributes to social cohesion and cultural identity also spend a considerable amount of time in
while at times generating income. The global voluntary work. In 2011, 33percent of people
market for artisan handcrafts alone was worth ages 5575 in the Netherlands and 30percent
an estimated $30billion in 2011. Handicraft of people ages 6574 in the United Kingdom
production and sales account for a substantial were involved in volunteering.11
share of GDP in some countries. In Tunisia The work of overseas workers and their
300,000 craft workers account for 3.8percent remittances have helped advance human
of GDP. In Thailand the number of craft work- development in both source and destination
ers is estimated at 2million. And in Colombia countries. Between 1990 and 2013 the number
craft production generates an annual income of of international migrants worldwide rose more
roughly $400million, including some $40mil- than 92million, to 247million, with most of
lion in exports.7 In developing countries the ex- the growth between 2000 and 2010. It is ex-
port of visual art in 2011 was around $9billion pected to surpass 250million in 2015. Of the
and that of publishing $8billion.8 143million in developed countries, 40percent

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 57

 were born in a developed country. Around half around the world is also not at the optimum
Shrinking contrasts in of international migrants are womenthe pro- level, with gender-based discrepancies in wages,
portion is slightly higher (around 52percent) job opportunities and career advancement.
human development and rising in developed countries and lower
achievement remain (around 43percent) and falling in developing Uneven human development
across and within countries.12 These people have contributed to achievements
the economic growth and income generation
regions and countries of destination countries and brought skills, Striking contrasts in human development
knowledge and creativity to these economies. achievements remain across and within regions
Remittances have been a major source of and countries. By 2014 all regions except
foreign exchange reserves for many developing Sub-Saharan Africa had reached the medium
countries, with considerable macroeconomic human development classification. Within
implications. But at the microeconomic level the low human development classification the
remittances have been the lifeline of many HDI value ranges from 0.348 for Niger to
households in terms of income, as well as in 0.548 for Nepal.
terms of resources for better health and edu- National HDI values can mask large differ-
cation. Officially recorded global remittances ences within countries, but countries may dis-
totalled $583billion, or more than four times aggregate the HDI to unmask the differences
the global official development assistance, in and use the results for proactive policies to
2014 and are projected to reach $586billion in provide more support to less developed areas.
2015. Officially recorded remittances to devel- Ethiopia has done so through its 2015 National
oping countries are expected to increase from Human Development Report (figure 2.5).
$436billion in 2014 to $440billion in 2015.13 Progress is also uneven across various human
The top recipients in 2014 were India ($70bil- development indicators: Between 1990 and
lion, or 4percent of GDP), China ($64billion, 2015 while the global prevalence of extreme
less than 1percent), the Philippines ($28bil- poverty was reduced from 47 percent to
lion, 10 percent) and Mexico ($25 billion,
2 percent). Remittance flows are even more FIGURE 2.5
important in some Eastern European and
Disaggregated Human Development Index values
Commonwealth of Independent States coun-
can unmask national averages: Ethiopia
tries: Remittances in Tajikistan were equivalent
FIGURE 2.4 to 49percent of GDP in 2013.14 Migrants also 2012/13
2004/05
send remittances through unofficial channels
Income poverty in Kyrgyzstan
or carry them when they return to their home Addis Ababa
would be much higher
without remittances country. Figure 2.4 reveals their importance for Harari
such human development outcomes as poverty
Income poverty rate (%) Tigray
reduction in Kyrgyzstan.
Without remittances Dire Dawa
45
Gambella
Serious human deprivations,
40 but considerable human Ben Gumuz

potential not in use SNNPR

Oromia
35
With remittances Despite overall gains in human development,
Amhara
not everyone has benefited. And serious human
30 deprivations remain in various areas of human Somali

lives. Furthermore, a huge amount of human Afar

2010 2011 2012 potential is not in use because of widespread
Note: Data refer only to official flows. unemployment, particularly among young 0 .200 .400 .600
Human Development Index value
Source: Data from a household budget
survey by the Kyrgyzstan National Statistical
people, and because many people are working
Committee. but remain impoverished, with limited work S NNPR is Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region.
choices. The paid work potential of women Source: UNDP 2015a.

58 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

14 percent (a 70 percent reduction), in Sub- of drinking water, compared with 84percent of
Saharan Africa it was reduced from 57percent rural populations.19
to only 41 percent (a 28 percent reduction). In all regions the HDI value is lower for
Between 2014 and 2016 less than 5 percent women than for men (table 2.1)women
of people in Latin America are estimated to fare better in only in 14 countries, including In all regions the
be malnourished, compared with 16 percent Barbados, Estonia, Poland and Uruguay.
in South Asia and 23percent in Sub-Saharan Even though the digital revolution has con- Human Development
Africa. In terms of stunting, children from the tributed substantially to human development Index value is lower for
poorest quintile of the population are more and revolutionized the world of work, as chap- women than for men
than twice as likely to be stunted as those from ter 3 shows, access to the digital revolution re-
the richest quintile.15 mains uneven, constraining the effects it could
In 2015 the child mortality rate was 11 have on human lives (box 2.1).
deaths per 1,000 live births for East Asia and 86 Within countries differences can be consid-
for Sub-Saharan Africa. The highest maternal erable across income, age and ethnic groups and
mortality ratio is in Sub-Saharan Africa (510 between rural and urban locations. In Malaysia
deaths per 100,000 live births), followed by in 2012 the richest 10percent of population
South Asia (190).16 In 2014 women accounted had 32percent of national income, while the
for more than half the worlds people living poorest 10 percent had only 2 percent.20 In
with HIV. And more than 70 percent of the Nepal about 10percent of Hill Brahmans (the
worlds people living with HIV were in Sub- upper caste) lived in income poverty in 2014,
Saharan Africa. Nearly 1.4 million newly in-
fected people were also in the region.17 Of the TABLE 2.1
57million out-of-school children at the prima-
ry level, 33million are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gender Development Index values by region, 2014
In developing countries children in the poorest
households are four times as likely to be out of Gender
Human Development Index Development
school as those in the richest households.18 In (HDI) value Index value
East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central (female HDI value/
Female Male male HDI value)
Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean the
Arab States 0.611 0.719 0.849
gross secondary enrolment ratio has surpassed
80percent, but in Sub-Saharan Africa it is less East Asia and the Pacific 0.692 0.730 0.948
than 50percent. Access to safe drinking water Europe and Central Asia 0.719 0.760 0.945
and basic sanitation is uneven between rural Latin America and the Caribbean 0.736 0.754 0.976
and urban areas around the world. Rural access
South Asia 0.525 0.655 0.801
has improved, but most progress has been in
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.480 0.550 0.872
urban areas. For example, 96percent of urban
populations have access to an improved source Source: Human Development Report Office calculations.

BOX 2.1

Uneven access to the digital revolution

Developed and developing countries: In 2015, 81per- Young and old: In 2013 people ages 24 and younger
cent of households in developed countries had Internet accounted for 42.4percent of the worlds population
access, compared with 34percent in developing coun- but 45percent of Internet users.
tries and 7percent in the least developed countries. Website content production: This is dominated
Urban and rural areas: In 2015, 89percent of the worlds by developed countries, which in 2013 accounted
urban population had 3G mobile broadband coverage, for 80 percent of all new domain-name registra-
compared with 29percent of its rural population. tions. Registrations from Africa were less than
Women and men: In 2013, 1.3billion women (37per- 1percent.
cent) and 1.5billion men (41percent) used the Internet.

Source: ITU 2013, 2015.

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 59

 compared with 44percent of Hill Dalits (lower Moldova ruralurban disparities in access to
caste).21 In 2012, 43percent of adults in South basic social services are sharp (figure 2.7). In
Africa were below the national poverty line, the Czech Republic the male unemployment
compared with 57 percent of children.22 The rate is 33percent among Roma and 5percent
prevalence of child poverty was also highest among non-Roma.23
among the poorest households (figure 2.6). In
Human development deficits
FIGURE 2.6
Apart from uneven achievements in human
Children in South Africa are not only disproportionately poor, but also more
development, deficits remain in many dimen-
concentrated in the poorest households, 2012
sions, impairing capabilities, opportunities and
(%)
thus human well-being.

40 Human Development Index shortfall

The HDI is a composite index with an upper

30
limit of 1.0. In 2014 the average global value
was 0.711, so there was a shortfall of 0.289.
20
One way of considering HDI progress is to con-
sider how some regions have cut their shortfall.
Adults
In East Asia and the Pacific the shortfall was
10 0.484 in 1990 and 0.290 in 2014, a narrowing
Children of 0.194 (40percent) and the steepest reduc-
tion among developing country regions (figure
0 2.8). In Sub-Saharan Africa the HDI shortfall
1 2 3 4 5
Poorest Richest
was whittled down by only about 20percent
Household wealth quintile
over the same period. One major challenge for
human development in the coming years is to
Source: Hall 2015.
reduce the HDI shortfall.

FIGURE 2.7 FIGURE 2.8

Access to basic social East Asia and the Pacific had the greatest reduction in Human Development Index shortfall among
services in Moldova is developing country regions over 19902014
unequal by ruralurban
locale, 2014 Human Development Index shortfall
.600
(% of population)
Absolute poverty rate 20%

5 Urban .500
30%
19 Rural
1990
Access to safe drinking water 40%
.400
69 30%

23 2014 33%
.300 28%
Access to sewerage
50
.200
1
Arab East Asia & Europe & Latin America South Sub-Saharan
Source: UNDP 2014c. States the Pacific Central Asia & the Caribbean Asia Africa

Source: Human Development Report Office calculations.

60 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

Multidimensional poverty rural areas having a higher prevalence than ur-
ban areas (figure 2.9).
The conventional measure of poverty considers In addition to considering indices of human
only income: People in extreme poverty live development and multidimensional poverty,
on less than $1.25 a day. But people can also it is useful to consider the absolute number of
be deprived of schooling, be undernourished people who are deprived (figure 2.10).
or lack access to safe drinking water. This
broader concept of poverty is reflected in the Huge human potential not in use
Multidimensional Poverty Index, a weighted
average of 10 indicators. A person is considered Despite impressive achievements in many areas,
to be in multidimensional poverty if she or he huge human potential remains unused. In 2015,
is deprived in at least a third of these indicators, 204 million people worldwideincluding Despite impressive
with each indicator having a defined depriva- 74million young people (ages 1524)were
tion level. unemployed.24 About 830million workers in achievements in
The Human Development Report has developing country regions live on less than $2 many ways, huge
been reporting Multidimensional Poverty a day.25 Half of workers and their families in de- human potential
Index estimates since 2010. This year the veloping countries live on less than $4 a day.26
Multidimensional Poverty Index is estimated The work potential for these people is not fully remains unused
for 101 countries (see table 6 in Statistical an- used or rewarded.
nex). The estimates suggest that about 1.5bil- Two groups whose work potential is not fully
lion people live in multidimensional poverty. used are women (particularly in the context of
Table 2.2 lists the five countries with the largest paid work) and younger people. Women are less
populations in multidimensional poverty; likely than men to seek or find paid work and are
however, the countries with the highest pro- less likely to have secure employment or senior
portions of their population in severe poverty positions when they are employed. Worldwide,
(deprived in more than half the dimensions) are the labour force participation rate (a measure of
Niger, South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, Burkina those active in the labour market) in 2015 was
Faso and Somalia, at more than 60percent, and around 50 percent among women, compared
Guinea-Bissau and Mali, at more than half. with 76percent among men.27 In the same year
The Multidimensional Poverty Index usually 47percent of working-age (ages 15 and older)
represents a national average, which can mask women were employed, compared with 72per-
disparities and large areas of deprivation within cent of men. Nearly 50 percent of employed
countries. In China an estimated 72 million women are in vulnerable employment, com-
people live in multidimensional poverty, but its pared with 44 percent of men.28 Worldwide,
prevalence varies greatly across provinces, with women hold only 18 percent of ministerial

TABLE 2.2

Countries with the most people in multidimensional poverty

Population in multidimensional poverty

Country Year (millions) (%)

Ethiopia 2011 78.9 88.2

Nigeria 2013 88.4 50.9
Bangladesh 2011 75.6 49.5
Pakistan 2012/2013 83.0 45.6
China 2012 71.9 5.2

Source: Human Development Report Office calculations using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and national household
surveys.

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 61

 FIGURE 2.9

Rural areas of China have a higher prevalence of multidimensional poverty than urban areas, 2012

People in multidimensional poverty (%)

11.4

8.1

China
average 5.2
3.5
2.8 2.3

Eastern Central Western Urban Rural

provinces provinces provinces
Multidimensional 0.011 0.014 0.052 0.009 0.036
Poverty Index value

Source: Human Development Report Office calculations based on data from the 2012 China Family Panel Studies.

FIGURE 2.10

Extent of human deprivations in the world

Poverty and hunger

Income poor 836 million (2015)

Chronic hunger 795 million (2014-16)

More than 1.5 billion Children stunted 161 million (2013)

workers worldwide Children underweight 90 (million 2015)

are in vulnerable
employment Health, mortality and education
Children dying before reaching age 5 6 million (2015)
Maternal mortality 290,000 (2013)
People living with HIV 37 million (2014)
Illiterate adults 780 million (2012)
Illiterate young people 103 million (2015)
Functionally illiterate people in OECD countries 160 million (2009)
Children not at school at primary level 57 million (2015)
Children not learning basic skills 250 million (2014)

Lack of access to basic social services

Safe water 663 million (2015)
Improved sanitation 2.4 billion (2015)
People resorting to open defecation 946 million (2015)
People living in urban slums 880 million (2015)

Source: UN 2015b; UNAIDS 2015; UNESCO 2013a, 2014.

62 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

positions, 22percent of parliamentary seats and share is in South Asia (82percent), followed
25percent of administrative and managerial po- by Sub-Saharan Africa (66 percent), East
sitions.29 Some 32percent of businesses do not and South-East Asia (65 percent) and Latin
have any female senior managers.30 See chapters America (51percent). Some 700million infor-
4 and 6 for more details on these issues. mal workers live in extreme poverty. In many
Workers are also staying unemployed longer. countries informal work accounts for a consid-
Even in the United States, where the recovery erable proportion of national nonagricultural
seems to have been stronger, at the end of May outputfor example, 46 percent in India in
2015 nearly 30percent of jobseekers were un- 2008. The proportion is also very high in some
employed for more than six months.31 This is West African countriesmore than 50percent
damaging for workers and for the economy, as in Benin, Niger and Togo.36
people out of work for a long period lose their
skills and struggle to find jobs at a similar skill Youth unemployment
level. Longer term unemployment (12 months
or more) pushes people towards informal Today more than half the worlds population is
sector, low-level, low-productivity jobs. It also under age 30.37 These young people are likely
makes them discouraged workersthat is, to be healthier and better educated than their Today more than half
people who would like to work but who do not parents and can take advantage of modern the worlds population
actively look for work for various reasons. communications technologies and media that is under age 30
Global employment growth has slowed to enable them to engage more fully in global
around 1.4percent a year since 2011, or far be- society. So they have higher work expectations
low the average annual growth rate of 1.7per- but many of them cannot find work.
cent during the pre-crisis years (20002007).32 In 2015, 74 million young people (ages 15-
Some 61million fewer people worldwide had 24) were unemployed.38 The youth-to-adult
jobs in 2014 than would have been the case unemployment ratio is at a historical peak and
if the pre-crisis trend had continued. And on is particularly high in the Arab States as well as
current trends, the number of global jobseek- in parts of Southern Europe and Latin America
ers could reach 215million by 2018, up from and the Caribbean.39 For example, the youth
206million in 2014.33 unemployment rate in 2014 was 3.4 times the
adult unemployment rate in Italy, nearly 3 times
Vulnerable work higher in Croatia and nearly 2.5 times higher in
the Czech Republic, Portugal and Slovakia. In
Worldwide, only half of workers were in wage absolute terms the youth unemployment rate
or salaried employment in 2014, with wide in these countries was also high53 percent
variations across regions. For countries with in Spain, 46percent in Croatia, 35percent in
data covering 84percent of global employment, Portugal and 30percent in Slovakia.40
26percent of employed people have a perma- The youth unemployment rate is highest in
nent contract, 13percent a temporary one and the Arab States, where in many countries of the
61 percent work without any contract. Part- region insufficient numbers of jobs are being
time work is widespread. For 86 countries with created for the increasingly educated workforce
data covering 65percent of global employment, (figure 2.11). For example, between 1995 and
more than 17percent of employed people work 2006 Egypt produced 5million college grad-
part time. Women are more likely to work part uates but generated only 1.8 million jobs in
time than men (24percent versus 12percent).34 skill-intensive service sectors (excluding con-
More than 1.5 billion workers worldwide struction and wholesale and retail trade).41
are in vulnerable employment. Vulnerable Youth unemployment is not confined to coun-
employment accounts for almost 80percent of tries with a young population. In countries with
work in low human development countries.35 an ageing population, such as Greece and Spain,
Most underemployed and underpaid workers more than half of economically active young
work informally. In most developing country people are unemployed, a situation worsened
regions informal work accounts for more than by persistently high school dropout rates. Early
half of nonagricultural workthe highest school leavers account for 28 percent of the

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 63

 FIGURE 2.11 the proportion of young people who are nei-
ther employed nor in education or training.45
The youth unemployment rate is highest in the Arab
Indeed, youth workforce participation is de-
States, 20082014
creasing everywhere. One consequence of low
participation and high youth unemployment
Arab States 29.0 is limited contributions or the late start
In 2015, 74 million East Asia and the Pacific 18.6 of contributionsfor retirement benefits.
Another is that rising youth unemployment,
young people Europe and Central Asia 19.5
particularly of the long-term sort, if left un-
Latin America
(ages 1524) were and the Caribbean 13.7 addressed, could leave economies with a lost
unemployed South Asia 10.9
generation of workers (box2.2).
As described in chapter 1, in 2012 some
Sub-Saharan Africa 13.5 21 million people worldwide were in forced
OECD 16.5 labour, 14million of them in labour exploitation
and 4.5million in forced sexual exploitation (in-
World 15.1
cluding forced prostitution and forced pornog-
raphy).46 And there were about 168million child
Source: Human Development Report Office calculations based on ILO (2015e). labourers.47 This human potential is wasted.

population ages 1824 in Spain, compared with Further human development

14percent across the European Union.42 Young challenges
unskilled workers have a much lower chance of
securing full-time work in the formal economy. There are human development challenges be-
Youth unemployment, exacerbated by the yond uneven human progress, existing human
2008 financial crisis and the global recession,
seems set to continue during the slow post-cri- BOX 2.2
sis growth. Between 2012 and 2020 almost
Impact of long-term youth unemployment
1.1 billion young jobseekers are expected to
enter the job market, many of them in South
Young people unemployed for long periods will not
Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.43 There is also
only suffer financially, but also start to lose their
mismatch between skills demanded and skills
skills, reducing their future work potential. And they
available. A mismatch in skills is associated lose self-esteem, with impacts on their well-being
with a high proportion of young people not and that of their family members. Youth unemploy-
in education, employment or training. One ment can also reduce a countrys economic potential
outcome of this phenomenon is high youth un- by underusing peoples capabilities. In addition, it
employment, as in Spain, where the youth un- undermines social cohesion, with the potential for
employment rate was more than 50percent in increases in crime, violence and social unrest, af-
early 2015.44 Developing countries face many fecting entire communities.
of the same issues but have to employ even One study of 69 countries found that being with-
more young peopleabsorbing not just the out a job translates into negative views about the
highly skilled and technologically savvy, but effectiveness of democracy, particularly among the
long-term unemployed.1 In North Africa postponing
also the growing bulge of young people with
the transition from youth to adulthood has fuelled
fewer skills, many of whom will need to work
resentment and unrest. In Somalia, where youth un-
in agriculture and basic services. employment stands at 67 percent, feelings of being
For many young workers the only route to socially excluded and financially marginalized make
employment in the formal economy is through young people more vulnerable to recruitment by
temporary work. They are thus more likely to extremist groups.2
be laid off, because many countries, particularly
in Europe, prioritize job protection for older Note
1. Altindag and Mocan 2010. 2. UNDP 2012c.
permanent workers. Since the start of the crisis, Source: Human Development Report Office.
numerous countries have seen a steep rise in

64 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

deprivations and lost human potentials. Some Sub-Saharan Africa and more than 25percent FIGURE 2.12
are already looming large (such as rising ine- lower in South Asia and the Arab States (table
Around 80percent of the
quality and climate change), some have been 2.3). In four countriesthe Central African
worlds people have just
changing rapidly in their extent and nature Republic, Comoros, Namibia and Sierra Leone 6percent of global wealth,
(such as human insecurity, shocks and vulnera- the Inequality-adjusted HDI value is more 2014
bilities) and some have full implications that are than 40percent lower. In 35 other countries it 1%
yet to be captured (such as population growth, is 3040percent lower.
growing urbanization and global epidemics). There have been sharp increases at the top
48%
of the income distribution. Between 1976 and
Rising inequality 2011 the share of total annual income received
by the richest 1 percent of the population
In recent years rising incomes around the world in the United States rose from 9 percent to 80%
have been accompanied by rising inequality in 20percent. Similarly, between 1980 and 2007
income, wealth and opportunities. Inequality the share received by the richest 1percent in
can be measured by the Gini coefficient, which the United Kingdom rose from 7 percent to
6%
is expressed as a value between 0 (everyone has 13percent.50 Some developing countries have
Global Global
the same) and 1 (one person has everything). similar patterns. In Colombia the richest 1per- population wealth
From 1990 to 2010 on average and taking cent of earners receives 20percent of national Source: Oxfam 2015.
into account population size, income inequali- income, and the situation is similar in South
ty increased 11percent in developing countries. Africa.51 The increasing income inequalities
A substantial majority of households in devel- in economies have affected labour more and
oping countriesmore than 75percent of the more, a point made by former United States
populationlive in a society where income is Labor Secretary Professor Robert Reich in a
more unequally distributed than in the 1990s. special contribution (signed box).
Income inequality is also a serious issue in With regard to global wealth, inequality is
developed countries. Between the 1990s and substantial. In fact, a small elite takes a large
2010 household income inequality increased share of global wealth. The richest 1 percent
9percent in high-income countries.48 Although held 48 percent of global wealth in 2014, a
income inequality across households has risen share projected to be more than 50percent in
in many countries, some estimates show that 2016.52 Around 80percent of the worlds peo-
it has fallen for the world as a whole as the ple have just 6percent of global wealth (figure Just 80 individuals
average incomes of developing and developed 2.12). Indeed, just 80 individuals together have
regions have been converging.49 as much wealth as the worlds poorest 3.5bil- together have as
Inequality can be measured by the Inequality- lion people. Such inequality has become a much wealth as
adjusted HDI. Each component is discounted serious problemboth for economic efficiency the worlds poorest
according to the extent of inequality in that and for social stability.53
component. The Inequality-adjusted HDI val- Inequalities extend beyond income. Wide- 3.5 billion people
ue is 33percent lower than the HDI value in spread inequality in opportunities persists,

TABLE 2.3

Human Development Index and Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index values for selected
regions, 2014

Human Development Inequality-adjusted Loss due to inequality

Index (HDI) value HDI value (%)

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.518 0.345 33.3

South Asia 0.607 0.433 28.7
Arab States 0.686 0.512 25.4
Latin America and the Caribbean 0.748 0.570 23.7

Source: Human Development Report Office calculations.

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 65

 SPECIAL CONTRIBUTION

Inequality and labour markets

The argument voiced in the late 19th century over alleged freedom of con- But as we should have learned a century ago, labour markets do not
tract was that any deal between employees and workers was perfectly fine exist in nature. They are created by human beings. The real question is how
if both sides voluntarily agreed to it. they are organized and for whose benefit.
So workers were worth no more than the wages they could command in In the late 19th century they were organized for the benefit of a few at
the labour market. And if they toiled 12 hour days in sweatshops for lack of the top.
any better alternative, it was not a problem. They had voluntarily agreed But by the middle of the 20th century they were organized for the vast
to those conditions. majority.
It was a time of great wealth for a few and squalor for many. And of During the 30 years after the end of World War II, as the economy
corruption, as the lackeys of robber barons deposited sacks of cash on the doubled in size, so did the wages of most Americansaccompanied by im-
desks of pliant legislators. proved hours and working conditions.
Eventually, after decades of labour strife and political tumult, the Yet since around 1980, even though the economy has doubled once again
20th century brought an understanding that capitalism requires minimum (the Great Recession notwithstanding), the wages of most Americans have
standards of decency and fairnessworkplace safety, a minimum wage, stagnated. And their benefits and working conditions have deteriorated.
maximum hours (and time-and-a-half for overtime) and a ban on child This is not because most Americans are worth less. In fact, worker pro-
labour. ductivity is higher than ever.
We also learned that capitalism needs a fair balance of power between It is because big corporations, Wall Street and some enormously wealthy
big corporations and workers. individuals have gained political power to organize the market in ways that
We achieved that through antitrust laws that reduced the capacity of have enhanced their wealth while leaving most Americans behind.
giant corporations to impose their will and through labour laws that allowed That includes trade agreements protecting the intellectual property of large
workers to organize and bargain collectively. corporations and Wall Streets financial assets but not American jobs and wages.
By the 1950s, when 35percent of private sector workers in the United Bailouts of big Wall Street banks and their executives and shareholders
States belonged to a labour union, they were able to negotiate higher wages when they cannot pay what they owe, but not of homeowners who cannot meet
and better working conditions than employers would otherwise have volun- their mortgage payments.
tarily provided. Bankruptcy protection for big corporations, allowing them to shed their
But now America seems to be heading back to the 19th century. debts, including labour contracts. But no bankruptcy protection for college gradu-
Corporations are shifting full-time work onto temps, freelancers ates overburdened with student debts.
and contract workers who fall outside the labour protections established Antitrust leniency towards a vast swathe of American industryincluding
decades ago. Big Cable (Comcast, AT&T, Time-Warner), Big Tech (Amazon, Google), Big
Meanwhile, the nations biggest corporations and Wall Street banks are Pharma, the largest Wall Street banks and giant retailers (Walmart).
larger and more potent than ever. But it also includes less tolerance towards labour unionsas workers
And labour union membership has shrunk to fewer than 7percent of trying to form unions are fired with impunity and more states adopt so-called
private sector workers. right-to-work laws that undermine unions.
So it is not surprising we are once again hearing that workers are worth We seem to be heading full speed back to the late 19th century. What
no more than what they can get in the market. will reverse it this time?

Robert Reich
Former United States Secretary of Labor

particularly for education. In the late 2000s in There are also serious inequalities in health.
South Asia children in the wealthiest quintile In Latin America and the Caribbean and in
were twice as likely as those in the poorest to East Asia children in the poorest asset quintile
complete primary school.54 are about three times more likely than those in

66 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

the richest to die before age 5. Health dispari- health care and social security, as well as retire- FIGURE 2.13
ties are also wide between urban and rural are- ment ages and pensionsissues that are taken
In low human development
as: In Latin America and the Caribbean child up in chapters 3 and 6.
countries the main driver of
mortality is a third higher in rural areas than in As a result of greater longevity and declining a high dependency ratio is a
urban areas.55 fertility, older people now make up an increas- young population, 2014
ing proportion of national populations. This
Ages 65
Population growth and structure ageing is reflected in the old-age dependency Under age 15 and older
ratio: the ratio of the number of people ages 65
Between 2015 and 2050 the worlds population and older to the number of people of working
Very high human development
is projected to rise from 7.3billion to 9.6bil- age (ages 1564). In developing country re-
lion. Most of this growth will be in developing gions the ratio was about 10percent in 2015.
countriesfrom 6.0 billion to 8.2 billion. A It is expected to rise to 47percent by 2050.60 High human development
substantial part of this is attributable to high Although ageing is a global phenomenon,
fertility in 15 countries, mostly least developed countries are at different stages depending on
countries, in Sub-Saharan Africa. By 2050, their levels of development and their stage in Medium human development
85 percent of the worlds people are project- the demographic transition (figure 2.13). In
ed to live in developing country regions.56 low human development countries the main
Low human development
Population growth has major implications for driver of a high dependency ratio is a young
human development and has a direct impact population (children under age 15). In very 60 40 20 20
on the lives of women and girlsincluding for high human development countries the demo- Share of working-age
the labour force and jobs, care work and social graphic pressures of old and young populations population (%)
protection, which are considered in chapters 4 are similar, but the older population will pre- Source: Human Development Report Office
and 6. Ageing is also a major issue. dominate fairly soon. calculations based on UNDESA (2013b).

One dimension of population growth is the

expansion of a sizeable global middle class, Growing urbanization FIGURE 2.14
defined as households with daily expenditure
In 1950 a third of the worlds
of $10$100 per capita (in purchasing power The world is experiencing an unprecedented
population lived in cities, in
parity terms).57 That global middle class is ex- transition from rural to urban living. In 1950 2000 nearly half were city
pected to be 4.9billionnearly 57percent of a third of the worlds population lived in cities, dwellers and by 2050 more
the global populationin 2030, with 3.2bil- in 2000, nearly half were city dwellers, and in than two-thirds will be
lion in Asia and the Pacific, mostly in China 2050 more than two-thirds of the worlds pop- 1950 Urban population1.2 billion
and India. Consumption by the middle class in ulation is projected to be living in urban areas Urban share of
the 10 countries with the largest middle-class (figure 2.14). This rapid increase will take place 29 the world
population (%)
population (Brazil, China, France, Germany, mainly in developing countries. Africa and Asia
India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, the Russian both still less urbanized than other regions
Federation and the United States) is forecast will have the fastest urban growth rates. Africas 2000 Urban population2.6 billion
to be $38 trillion in 2030.58 These shifts will urban population is projected to jump from
have major implications for the consumption 40percent today to 56percent by 2050, and
patterns and living standards of a large share of Asias from 48percent to 64percent.61 47
the global population and as a result for envi- One factor driving rapid urbanization in
ronmental sustainability and other aspects of developing countries is ruralurban migration
human development. motivated by better employment opportunities
2050 Urban population 6.2 billion
Thanks to technological advances in medi- in cities (pull factors). The largest ruralurban
cine, nutrition and sanitation infrastructures, migration is in China, where about 275million
people in most countries are living longer, with people, or more than a third of the labour force,
advances often improving the quantity and are migrant workers from the countryside.62
quality of basic social services, particularly in In many developing countries migration from 68
poor countries. Over the first decade of the rural areas to cities is driven at least partly by
21st century, global life expectancy increased natural disasters (such as floods) and increas-
by more than three years.59 Greater longevity ing land degradation and desertification that
Source: WEF 2015.
is a welcome sign of human development, but make agriculture difficult (push factors).
it raises new issues for public policies on work, For example, many people are migrating from

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 67

 drought-stricken areas in northeast Brazil to The increase has been driven principally by the
favelas in Rio de Janeiro.63 growing number of Afghan, Somali and Syrian
Urbanization has the potential to improve refugee children.69
Urbanization has the the economic well-being of societies. More Between 2000 and 2013 the worldwide
than half the worlds people live in cities, but cumulative death toll from violent extremism
potential to improve they generate more than 80percent of global acts intended to provoke a state of terror in
the economic well- GDP.64 In most countries the health of city the general public, a group of people or par-
being of societies, but dwellers has improved through access to better ticular peoplerose from 3,361 to 17,958.70
education and health care, better living condi- The Islamic State and associated armed groups
it also presents many tions and targeted public health interventions. have carried out brutal attacks on civilians
human development Cities hold promises for improving human in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and other countries,
challenges well-being.65 including killings, rape and sexual slavery,
Yet urbanization also presents many human torture, forced religious conversion and the
development challenges. It puts pressure on cit- conscription of children. Boko Haram has
ies infrastructuressuch as housing, electric- kidnapped and attacked civilians in Benin,
ity, drinking water and sanitationand may Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger, and Al
adversely affect residents quality of life. Nearly Shabaab militants have made similar attacks
40percent of the worlds urban expansion may in Somalia and Kenya. Originating in Uganda
be in slums, exacerbating economic disparities but operating in the Central African Republic,
and unsanitary conditions. Almost 700million the Democratic Republic of the Congo and
urban slum dwellers lack adequate sanitation, South Sudan, the Lords Resistance Army, a
which, along with the paucity of safe drinking militant cult group, has carried out human
water, raises the risk of communicable diseases atrocities.
such as cholera and diarrhoea, particularly People living with the threat of violence
among children.66 And urbanization creates from violent extremism and conflict not only
income and opportunity disparities, not only lose their freedom, but also have fewer op-
between rural and urban areas but also among portunities to expand their capabilities. With
socioeconomic groups in cities, boosting social basic infrastructures p hysical and social
tensions.67 destroyed, they have fewer opportunities
to earn a livelihood and less access to health
Human security services and schooling. Parents who fear for
the physical and sexual safety of their children
Human development is under threat from are likely to keep them out of school.71 Taken
many sources. In 2014 the world witnessed together, these conditions increase care respon-
widespread conflicts, violence and human sibilities within the home.
rights violations that resulted in the massive dis- Violent extremism and conflict also erode
placement of people, within and outside their collective human development. Intimidation
countries. At the end of 2014 almost 60mil- and violence can demoralize communities and
lion people had been displaced worldwide, the destroy social structures and political institu-
highest level recorded since the Second World tions, undermining cohesion and weakening
War. If these people were a nation, they would states. And violence targeted at particular
make up the 24th largest country in the world. groups can magnify existing societal cleavages.
Multiple conflicts took place in the Democratic Extremist groups regularly attack or threaten
Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, women and sexual, ethnic and religious minor-
South Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and ities, often using rape as an expression of power
Ukraine.68 and brutality.72 These threats are global, and
About a third of the 60million were refugees their effects cut across national bordersnot
or asylum seekers, and more than 38 million just because of the flows of refugees, but also
were displaced within the borders of their because of uncertainty about when and where
own countries. Based on available evidence, a terrorist attack might occur.
children accounted for half the global refugee Violent extremist activities and large-scale
population, the highest proportion in 10 years. conflicts make it difficult for governments

68 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

to provide essential social services such as Such violence impacts womens empower-
basic health care and education. An estimated ment. The full effects on human development
30million children are out of school in con- are difficult to measure, but there have been
flict-affected countries.73 Undereducated youth efforts to quantify some of the costs in finan-
with few economic opportunities are then sus- cial terms. In Australia the cost of domestic
ceptible to recruitment by extremists, increas- and nondomestic violence against women and
ingly over the Internet. For example, in Somalia children has been estimated at A$14billion a
youth engagement with Al Shabaab is driven by year. In Viet Nam domestic violence against
high unemployment, inadequate education and women costs nearly 1.4percent of GDP in lost
weak political participation.74 earnings and out-of-pocket spending to treat
health-related violence outcomes, leading to an
Womens empowerment overall output loss of 1.8percent of GDP.78

Womens empowerment requires female auton- Shocks, vulnerabilities and risks

omy in all areas of lifefinancial, economic,
political, social and cultural, in and outside For many societies, and particularly for poor Violent extremism
the home. Measures of gender parity are im- communities, human development is under-
proving, but gender parity may not lead to mined by multiple shocks, vulnerabilities and and conflict also
real empowerment in countries where overall risks: economic and financial crises, rising food erode collective
development is low. prices and food insecurities, energy price hikes, human development
Improvements in gender equalitythe so- emerging health risks and epidemics. Any of
cially constructed relations between men and these can slow, reverse or completely derail
womenhave also occurred. Women are better human development, as documented by the
represented in political decisionmaking, and in financial and economic crisis of 20082009. In
the workplace glass ceilings are at least crack- Latin America an additional 3.2million people
ing, if not breaking. Stereotyped gender roles live in poverty over what was expected without
are changing in many societies, as is sharing of the crisis.79 Globally there were at least 61mil-
responsibilities within households. lion fewer jobs in 2014 than expected.80
Even so, women are actively disempowered
by mutually reinforcing processes in every Emerging health risks
walk of life. They are held back by biases in
social beliefs, norms and cultural values. They Noncommunicable (or chronic) diseases have
face discrimination in economic, political and become a global health risk. They kill 38mil-
social structures as well as policies, institutions lion people a year, almost three-fourths of
and strategies. Too often they are constrained them (28million) in low- and middle-income
by real and perceived physical insecurity. countries. Cardiovascular disease accounts
Violence against women, including domestic for the most deaths due to noncommunicable
violence, is evident in all societies, among all diseases (about 18million), followed by cancer
socioeconomic groups and at all levels of edu- (8.2 million), respiratory disease (4 million)
cation. According to a 2013 global review, one and diabetes (1.5million).81
in three women (35percent) has experienced Tobacco accounts for around 6 million
physical or sexual intimate partner violence or deaths a year (including deaths due to second-
nonintimate partner sexual violence.75 But hand smoke), a figure projected to increase to
in some countries that share rises to 70 per- 8million by 2030.82 Two million women and
cent.76 More often than not, the violence goes childrenfour a minutedie prematurely due
unreported to the police. Interviews with to illness caused by indoor air pollution, pri-
42,000 women across the 28 EU member states marily from smoke produced while cooking.83
revealed that only 14 percent of women had Obesity, though preventable and reversible,
reported their most serious incident of intimate accounts for a growing share of noncommu-
partner violence, and merely 13 percent had nicable diseases. Over the past 20 years being
reported their most serious incident of nonin- overweight or obese has emerged as a world-
timate partner violence.77 wide scourge on health, initially in developed

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 69

 countries but now in developing countries, Leone the number of children under age 5
particularly in urban settings (figure 2.15). receiving treatment for malaria declined 39per-
Almost 30percent of the worlds population, cent between May and September 2014. Liberia
or 2.1billion people, are overweight or obese, saw the proportion of women giving birth with
62 percent of them in developing countries, the assistance of a skilled health care provider
with wide variations by region. The number of tumble from 52percent in 2013 to only 37per-
overweight children is projected to double by cent between May and August 2014.87
2030.84 Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone felt a total
Noncommunicable diseases are not only a fiscal impact from Ebola of over $500million
Noncommunicable matter of lifestyle, but also strongly related to in 2014, nearly 5 percent of their combined
poverty and deprivation. Poor people often GDP. In 2015 lost output was estimated to be
(or chronic) diseases have to consume low-priced, low-nutrition, more than 12percent of GDP.88 In addition,
have become a highly processed foods. So their intake is made the countries have suffered from reduced agri-
global health risk up largely of calories without micronutrients. cultural production, possible food insecurity,
The spread of noncommunicable diseases is lower wages and pauses in investment plans by
inherently linked to social influences. external partners.

Epidemics Climate change

The year 2014 saw a serious outbreak of the Around the world communities are steadily
Ebola virus. As of late May 2015 almost 27,000 becoming more vulnerable to the adverse
reported, confirmed, probable and suspected effects of climate change, including loss of bi-
cases and 11,000 deaths had been accounted odiversity. Most exposed are those who live in
for in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. More arid zones, on slopes, in areas with poor soils
than 5,000 children were infected, and 16,000 and in forest ecosystems. Estimates show that
children lost one or both parents or their pri- in 2002, these fragile lands supported around
mary caregiver.85 1.3billion people (double the number 50 years
Closed schools, threats to past health gains ago) and have been under increasing pressure.89
and economic declines are among the many Global emissions of carbon dioxide, which has
impacts of the Ebola outbreak. An estimated an impact on climate change, have increased
5million children were deprived of education 50percent since 1990.90
in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, where Climate change exacerbates all these vulner-
schools were closed for months.86 In Sierra abilities, fettering the choices of present and

FIGURE 2.15

Undernourishment and obesity rates vary by region, most recent year available

(% of population)
25

20

Undernourished
15

10

5
Obese

0
South East Asia & Sub-Saharan Latin America Europe & Middle East &
Asia the Pacific Africa & the Caribbean Central Asia North Africa

Source: World Bank 2015a.

70 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

future generations. Impacts are particularly se- The total damage was also lessdown from
vere on developing countries and their poorest the 20032013 annual average of $157billion
people, who often live in the most fragile eco- to $119billion in 2013 dollars. By number of
logical areas and depend directly on the natural deaths, of the 10 most affected countries in
environment for their lives and livelihoods. 2013, five were low- or lower middle-income.93
Climate change poses an existential threat to Since 2008 an estimated one person every
small island developing states. second has been displaced by a disaster, with
Water availability will be increasingly affect- 19.3million people forced to flee their homes
ed by climate change, which in Africa could in 2014 alone.94
expose 250 million people to greater water
stress. In some countries drought could halve
the yields from rainfed agriculture by 2020.91 Human development
Across Sub-Saharan Africa and South and East looking forward
Asia drought and rainfall variations could lead
to large productivity losses in cultivated food The record on human development has been
staples. mixedquite uneven across regions, among
The climate changes of recent decades have countries and between groups. While progress
probably already affected some health out- has been impressive on some fronts, considera-
comes. These changes were held responsible ble deprivations remain, all presenting tremen-
for 2.4 percent of worldwide diarrhoea cases dous challenges to human development. Table
and 6 percent of malaria cases in a few mid- A2.1 at the end of the chapter presents a bal-
dle-income countries in 2000.92 Small changes ance sheet of human progress and deprivations.
against a noisy background of other causal These dynamics must be seen in the context
factors are difficult to confirm. But once identi- of a changed world. The world today is very
fied, cases of causal attribution are strengthened different from the world in 1990, when the no-
by similar observations in different population tion of human development and its measures to
settings. assess human well-being were launched. The de-
The first detectable changes in human health velopment canvas has changed, global growth
may be alterations in the geographical range centres have shifted, important demographic
(latitude and altitude) and seasonality of cer- transitions have materialized and a fresh wave Climate change fetters
tain infectious diseases, including vectorborne of development challenges has emerged.
infections such as malaria and dengue fever, The notion of human development needs to the choices of present
and foodborne infections such as salmonello- be contextualized to make it a more relevant and future generations
sis, which peak in the warmer months. Warmer analytical foundation for dealing with emerg-
average temperatures combined with increased ing challenges in a changing world. Issues of in-
climatic variability could alter the pattern of dividual and collective capabilities and choices,
exposure to thermal extremes, with resultant their probable trade-offs in various situations,
health impacts in both summer and winter. the possible hierarchies among such choices,
By contrast, the public health consequences the intergenerational (for present as well as
of the disturbance of natural and managed future generations) choices and capabilities
food-producing ecosystems, rising sea levels (which reflect the notion of sustainability) and
and population displacements due to physical human development in situations of shocks
hazards, land loss, economic disruption and and vulnerabilities will have to be revisited to
civil strife may not become evident for several make the current framework more robust and
decades. relevant for the future.
Millions of people are also affected by nat- Thinking on some of these issues has already
ural disasters. Between 2003 and 2013 there begun. New notions of human well-being (such
were on average 388 natural disasters a year, af- as subjective well-being and happiness) have
fecting 216million people and killing 106,654. been proposed, and alternative options for
But in 2013 natural disasters were at their measuring it have been constructed (box 2.3).
lowest level in 16 years, with 330 disasters that Even for human development measures, several
affected 97million people and killed 21,610. innovative approaches have been experimented

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 71

 with in some national human development more ambitious international agenda like
reports (for example, using child mortality as the Post-2015 Development Agenda and the
the indicator for a long and healthy life in cal- Sustainable Development Goals, the High
culating the HDI for Madhya Pradesh, India). Level Panel on the Post-2015 Agenda con-
The above considerations imply that assess- vened by the UN Secretary-General in 2014
ing human well-being in a changed world has called for a data revolution. It emphasized the
to go beyond what was developed 25 years need to leave no one behind in the context of
ago. The need for exploring new measures the Post-2015 Development Agenda and to
and tools for monitoring and assessing human monitor the progress in achieving the agenda.
well-being has become more pronounced as Three issues need highlighting:
the world has been discussing the Post-2015 First, substantial quantities of real-time data
Development Agenda and the Sustainable can provide better information on, say, spikes
Development Goals, successors to the in prices of food staples that will dispro-
Millennium Development Goals. The agenda portionately impact the near-poor. Sensors,
and the goals are expected to provide a big push satellites and other tools produce real-time
in overcoming the remaining human develop- data on activities and vulnerabilitiesfor
ment gaps and challenges in coming years, but example, on deforestation, urbanization,
fresher, innovative and relevant assessment flooding and poverty indexing via images of
tools are needed for monitoring. Measuring tin roofs in Africa.
environmental sustainability and integrating it Second, big data analysis holds the promise
with overall measures for human well-being are of producing highly relevant information
priorities. almost instantaneously to levels hitherto
Three other challenges need to be addressed. undreamt of outside population censuses.95
First, measures and indicators have to be iden- For example, anonymized mobile phone
The notion of human tified so that the impacts of policy measures data can show flows of crowds and be used
can be quickly captured. Second, available in urban planning. Trends in millions of
development needs measures are often inadequate for assessing searches on the Internet and users posts on
to be contextualized human well-being at times of shocks and vul- social media offer insights into peoples opin-
for dealing with nerabilities; measures and indicators that can ions and priorities. Big data has the potential
forecast and capture the impacts of shocks and to be harnessed for diverse uses, including
emerging challenges vulnerabilities should be considered. Third, measurement of important indicators, cap-
in a changing world measures that are agile enough to provide quick turing attitudinal trends, monitoring health
policy guidance have to be explored. epidemics and providing real-time feedback
All these measures will require robust, on the efficacy of policymaking.96
consistent and credible data. Taking that Each day people send 294billion emails,
into account and also considering a much upload 100,000 gigabytes 97 of data to

BOX 2.3

Alternative measures of human well-being

To inform the public and broaden debate over the past has considered talking not just about GDP but about
15 years or so, several national governments have re- GWBgeneral well-being. This would involve generat-
leased comprehensive reports on national well-being. ing a single number that summarizes peoples feelings
Some of the earliest initiatives came from Australia, about many aspects of well-being. That might avoid the
Ireland and the United Kingdom. Rather than using com- need to assign weights to components, but it raises
posite indicators, as with the HDI, they have generally questions of data reliability and makes cross-country
involved a collection of individual indicators. comparisons difficult.
Other countries support subjective measures of All these approaches of well-being are being used
well-being or happiness. For example, Bhutan has a by a range of actors from government, academia, civil
Gross National Happiness Index. The United Kingdom society and beyond.

Source: Human Development Report Office.

72 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015

Facebook, generate 230million tweets and Third, many countries have combined tradi-
send and receive 1.3billion gigabytes of data tional and new methods of data collection Many countries have
over mobile phones. According to some esti- for censuses, ranging from administrative
mates, should current trends continue, there registers to mobile devices, geospatial in- combined traditional
will be 100billion times more data in 2035 formation systems and the Internet. Birth and new methods
than there is today.98 registration coverage has benefited from new of data collection
Such data are expanding understanding technologies: In Albania, Pakistan
of causation in an increasingly complex and other countries geo-mapping technol-
world and enabling rapid responses in some ogies have helped collect and visualize birth
humanitarian situations. But such data have registration data.
risksthe same data could be used to do In this changed and changing world, with
harm where privacy and anonymity are not a new development agenda and new devel-
fully respected. Notwithstanding the evident opment goals, human progress will depend
issues related to privacy and security, many critically on work by humankind. And making
researchers are engaged in identifying how full use of available human potential will be an
this large volume of informationgenerated important ingredient in overcoming existing
both incidentally and deliberately as billions human development deficits and addressing
of people go about their daily livescan emerging human development challenges. And
support sustainability and provide usable that has to be done in a changing world of work
insights for improving lives. the focus of the next chapter.

Chapter 2 Human development and work: progress and challenges | 73

TABLE A2.1

Balance sheet of human development

Progress Deprivations
Health
The global child mortality rate in 2015 is less than half the 1990 rate, having In 2015 almost 6million children worldwide died before reaching age 5. Almost
dropped from 90 deaths per 1,000 live births to 43or from about 12.7million to 3million of those deaths occurred during the first 28 days of life, the neonatal
6million in absolute terms. period.
Between 1990 and 2013 the global maternal mortality ratio dropped 45percent, In 2013 nearly 290,000 women worldwide died from causes related to pregnancy
from 380 deaths per 100,000 live births to 210. and childbirth.
Between 1995 and 2013 tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis and treatment In 2015 about 214million cases of malaria occurred around the world, and
interventions saved 37million lives worldwide. Between 2000 and 2015 malaria the disease killed about 472,000. In 2013, 11million people were living with
interventions saved 6.2million lives. And since 2000, global responses to HIV tuberculosis. And in 2014 an estimated 37million people were living with HIV.
have averted 30million new infections.
Education
The global youth literacy rate (ages 1524) increased from 83percent in 1990 Worldwide 780million adults in 2012 were illiterate, as were 103million young
to 91percent in 2015. The adult literacy rate (ages 15 and older) increased from people in 2015.
76percent to 86percent. There are 57million out-of-school children of primary school age around the
Between 1990 and 2015 the number of children enrolled in primary education world. One in six adolescents (ages 1416) does not complete primary school.
increased in all regionsand more than doubled in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Womens empowerment
In 42 countries women hold more than 30percent of seats in at least one chamber Globally women earn 24percent less than men and nearly 50percent of the
of national parliament. employed women are in vulnerable employment.
Access to basic social services
Access to an improved drinking water source has become a reality for 2.6billion Some 663million people worldwide draw water from an unimproved source.
people since 1990. In 2015, 2.4billion people worldwide did not use an improved sanitation facility,
Between 1990 and 2012 almost 2.1billion additional people worldwide gained and 946million people resorted to open defecation.
access to an improved sanitation facility.
Income and poverty
Between 1990 and 2015 the number of people living below $1.25 a day in In 2013 about 370million people in developing country regions were working but
developing country regions fell from 1.9billion to 836million. living on less than $1.25 a day.
The proportion of undernourished peopleindividuals unable to obtain enough In 20142016 nearly 795million people worldwide, about 780million of whom
food regularly to conduct an active and healthy lifedecreased in developing were in developing countries, suffered from chronic hunger. One in seven children
regions from 23.3percent in 19901992 to 12.9percent in 20142016. The worldwidean estimated 90million children under age 5is underweight, and
prevalence of stunting among children under age 5 fell from 40percent in 1990 to one in four children was stunted in 2015.
25percent globally in 2013. In 2014 the richest 1percent of the worlds people owned 48percent of global
The worlds gross national income per capita has gone up from PPP$8,510 in wealth, a share that could rise to more than 50percent in 2016.
1990to PPP$13,551 in 2013.
Participation
By the end of 2015 there will be 7.1billion mobile subscriptions and 3.2billion Of the worlds 7.3billion people in 2015, nearly 4billion people, the majority
Internet users in the world. By the end of 2014 there were more than a billion of whom live in developing country regions, do not have access to the Internet.
active users of Facebook per month and more than 300million active users of The unconnected are typically the worlds poorest and most disadvantaged
Twitter per month. populations.
Environmental sustainability
Between 2000 and 2010 the global net loss in forest fell from an average of About 1.3billion people in the world live on ecologically fragile land.
8.3million hectares a year to an average of 5.2million hectares a year thanks to Global emissions of carbon dioxide increased 50percent between 1990 and 2013.
afforestation and the natural expansion of forests.
Water scarcity affects more than 40percent of people around the world.
The world has also almost eliminated ozone-depleting substances, consumption
of which fell 98percent between 1986 and 2013.

Source: Human Development Report Office.

74 | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2015