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F A + BT: Project Management (MIIE 3240)

1. The document describes a linear trend forecasting method and provides data on car battery sales over 14 weeks. It asks to determine the trend line equation, predict future sales, and compare simple moving average, exponential smoothing, and best forecasting method. 2. It also provides daily sales data for a vehicle engine oil product over 15 days. It asks to do naive forecasting, predict future sales, compare simple moving average, exponential smoothing, and best forecasting method. 3. The document poses forecasting problems and questions using different time series data and methods to evaluate and select the best approach.

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69 views2 pages

F A + BT: Project Management (MIIE 3240)

1. The document describes a linear trend forecasting method and provides data on car battery sales over 14 weeks. It asks to determine the trend line equation, predict future sales, and compare simple moving average, exponential smoothing, and best forecasting method. 2. It also provides daily sales data for a vehicle engine oil product over 15 days. It asks to do naive forecasting, predict future sales, compare simple moving average, exponential smoothing, and best forecasting method. 3. The document poses forecasting problems and questions using different time series data and methods to evaluate and select the best approach.

Uploaded by

jebisha
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Project Management (MIIE 3240)

Practical Exercise

Linear Trend Method of Forecasting

Equation
Ft= a + bt

Ft = Forecast for period


a =Value of Ft at t=0
b = Slope of the line
t =Specific number of time periods.

Week Unit Sales


Problem 1:
1 700
Car batteries sales for a California based firm over the past 14
weeks are shown in the table below. Plot the data and visually 2 724
check to see if a linear trend line would be appropriate. 3 720
1) Determine the equation of the trend line, and predict the
4 728
sales for 11, 12 and 25th week.
2) 3 week Simple moving average and forecast for 15th week. 5 740
3) Exponential smoothing of α=0.3 and forecast for 15th week. 6 742
4) Suggest the best method of forecasting cars battery sales
7 758
using the given data.
8 750
9 770
10 775
11 650
12 640
13 600
14 680

Problem 2:
A Sales manager has been monitoring the sales of a certain product of vehicle engine oil. Daily sales
during the last 15 days were as follows:
1) Use Naïve forecast method to forecast 16th day.
2) Forecast the sale for 20, 23 and 31st day.
2) 5 week Simple moving average and forecast for 16th day.
3) Exponential smoothing of α=0.3 and forecast for 16th day.
4) Suggest the best method to forecast this data.

Day Number Sold


1 36
2 38
3 42
4 44
5 48
6 49
7 50
8 49
9 52
10 48
11 52
12 55
13 54
14 56
15 57

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