Seventh Grade Probability and Genetics

Unit
Lesson 1:
Introduction to Probability

Relevant Standards
Common Core State Standards (Mathematics):
MACC.7.SP.3.5. Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number
between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers
indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability
around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1
indicates a likely event.
Access Points: Cluster 3: Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate
probability models.

Formative Assessments
At critical times in the lesson, the teacher will ask a question that relates directly to the key concept
related to the prior tasks; students will respond with one or two sentences, quantitatively when
appropriate. Examples of these questions are included in the lesson plan.

Educative Assessment
Students will respond to the teacher’s questions on their worksheets and then orally. The teacher will
engage the students in the oral discussion and discuss the written responses with students individually.
Examples of these questions are included in the lesson plan.

Summative Assessment
1. Put the following events on a number line that estimates their probability:
a. Winning a raffle in which 200 tickets were sold and you purchased 5 tickets.
b. Winning a raffle in which 200 tickets were sold and you purchased 30 tickets.
c. Rain occurring at least once during the month of March at your house.
d. Everyone in the class having different birthdays.
2. Describe an example of a low probability, moderate probability, and high probability
event, different from those discussed in class or in this assessment.
a. COMMENTS ON QUESTION #1.
b. Theoretical probability is .025
c. Theoretical probability is .15. It is important that this point be to the right of the
response to (a).
d. This is very likely in most parts of the country.
e. Accept all reasonable answers; students should provide their reasoning for their
response. If the class has 23 students, the theoretical probability is approximately
 50%. For smaller classes, the probability is higher; for larger classes the
probability is lower.

Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will
a. understand that the likelihood of chance events occurring is called “probability” .
b. correctly express the probability of chance events that are likely, unlikely, and neither
likely nor unlikely on number lines that range from 0% to 100% and 0 to 1.
c. understand that when one chance event is more likely than another, the probability of the
former is greater than the probability of the latter.

Guiding Questions
1. What is probability?
2. How are the probabilities of chance events expressed numerically?

Prior Knowledge
For students to successfully complete this lesson, they must understand the relationship between fractions,
decimals, percentages, and ratios and be comfortable converting from one representation to another.

Teaching Phase:
Guided Practice and Assessments
*The script is provided simply as a guide for the lesson. The lesson should be modified as the
teacher sees fit.

Step 1:
Supply each child with a whiteboard, marker, and eraser.
The following are some alternatives to white boards:
 Have the student select his/her answers using the student response clickers, if available.
 Provide the students with pieces of paper on which they can record their answers.
 Select a few students to respond to your question out loud. Write the response he/she
provides on the board for all of the students to see. Ask the students to raise their hand in
support of one of the responses. Ask students to explain their choice of answer.

Step 2:
Lesson Introduction:
The lesson that we will work on today has to do with the likelihood of common events occurring. Some of
the time you will work alone and sometimes you will work in a group. Be sure to fill out the worksheet I
am now handing out to you as you work through today’s lesson.
Hand out the accompanying worksheet “Student Worksheet: Introduction to Probability.” (Alternative to
using the worksheet: Display the questions on a document camera, or write them on the board. Have the
students record their answers in a math journal or on a piece of paper.)
Step 3:
Formative Assessment (of prior knowledge):
Write “50%” on the board. Ask the students to write the decimal equivalent of 50% on their white boards
and hold them up for you to see. If there is no consensus among the students about the correct answer,
write the incorrect and correct answers on the board. Ask the students to raise their hand in support of one
of the answers. Pick students to explain why they chose the answer they did, until the class reaches
consensus on the correct answer. Alternatively, just explain which is the correct answer, which are the
incorrect answers, and why. Next, write “3/4” on the board. Ask the students to write ¾ as a percentage.
Repeat reporting out and consensus building steps. Now, ask the students to write the decimal equivalent
of 3/4 on their white board and hold it up for you to see. Repeat reporting out and consensus building
steps. Then, write “0” on the board and ask the students to write zero as a percentage on their boards.
Repeat reporting out and consensus building steps. Finally, write “1” on the board. Ask the students to
write 1 as a percentage on their boards. Repeat reporting out and consensus building steps. Tell the
students:
In order to complete today’s lesson, you will need to correctly make conversions between percentages,
decimals, and fractions, so remember what we just went over as you work through today’s lesson.

Step 4:
Now I want you to get back together with your group. Take about one minute, working with your group,
to come up with a list of some events or activities that you do, could do, or would want to do if you had
lots of money or some special skills, during your life. Write that list on your worksheet. When you are
done writing it on your worksheet, have one member of your group copy the list onto your white board.

While the students work on this, write the following three headings on the board: likely, unlikely,
neither likely nor unlikely. Next to this draw a number line.

0 .5 1.0
|---------------------------------------------------- |----------------------------------------------------|
50%

Okay, hold up your whiteboards so that I can see what you have written. In another place on the board,
or on a piece of paper below a document camera make a list of some of the events or activities that you
see on the students’ white boards. If possible, choose at least some events that are likely, unlikely, or
neither likely nor unlikely, and some funny or really obvious ones.
You can put your white boards down. I want three of you to come up to the board to help me record
these events under the correct heading. Point at the three headings you wrote on the board and pick three
students to come to the board. As I read the events out loud from this list, I want those of you still in your
seats to call out whether the event is likely, unlikely, or neither likely nor unlikely to happen in your
lifetime. I want those of you at the board to record the event under your heading if we agree as a class
that that is where it should go.
Read down the list until there are at least a couple of events under each heading. (Alternative: Do not
have the students record their lists on their whiteboards. Instead, call on each group to pick one event or
activity from their list and have the class “help” you decide which heading it should belong under. Instead
of having the students shout out answers, you could assign each heading a number and have the students
hold up the number of fingers that correlates to the heading where they think the event or activity should
go.)

Step 5:
Formative Assessment:
Now that we have these events and activities separated by likelihood we can see that some events are
very likely to happen in your lifetime, such as (use one of the students responses). If we were to put this
event on the number line I have drawn on the board based on its likelihood of happening, we would put it
toward the 100% / 1.0 end. If it were guaranteed to happen, such as breathing (or some other example
from the student-generated list), we would say there is a 100% chance or likelihood of it occurring.
Where on the number line would some of these events we classified as unlikely, go on the number line?
Allow the students to give the answer. We would place them down here toward the 0% or 0.0 end of
the number line. If it was something we know would NOT happen, such as moving to Pluto (or some other
example from the student-generated list), we would say there is a 0% chance or no likelihood of it
occurring. Now, for these events that may or may not happen, which we said are neither likely nor
unlikely to occur, where would they go on the number line?
Allow the students to give the answer. We would place them around the middle of the number line,
where we have 50% or 0.5 because there is an equal or nearly equal chance of these events occurring or
not occurring. Something with an exactly equal chance of occurring or not occurring, such as flipping a
coin and having it land heads up, would go here at the 0.5/ 50% mark. When considering the chances or
likelihood of something happening or not happening the term many people use is “probability”. So, the
“probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event
occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood.”
Step 6.
Group activity:
Assign or have students assign themselves to groups of two (with one group of three if there are an odd
number of students). For each question you are to indicate which of the two events has the higher
probability. Note: For questions 1 and 2, the correct answer is underlined in this lesson plan, but not on
the student worksheet.

1. When a fair number cube is rolled, which has the higher probability of occurring.
Rolling a 6 OR Rolling a number greater than 4

2. If two fair number cubes are rolled, which has the higher probability of occurring.
At least one cube shows 3 OR Both cubes show 3.
3. The local meteorologist indicates that the data indicate a 30% chance of rain for each of
the next five days. Indicate on the number line with a
 M the probability of rain for Monday.
 W the probability of rain every day.
 N the probability that it will NOT rain any day.
Allow the groups several minutes to reach a consensus for each question and write their answers on their
whiteboard. Note that the theoretical answers are underlined for #1 and #2. For #3, M=30%, W <30%,
N=1-W >70%; it is not possible to obtain an exactly answer for W and N without making additional
assumptions. It is important for students to explain their reasoning.

0 .5 1.0
|---------------------------------------------------- |----------------------------------------------------|
50%

Step 7:
Educative Assessment. To sum up this introduction to probability, think about the events we have on the
board and their appropriate place on the number line. Now, fill in the blanks on your worksheet to
complete the sentence that is written there. Rather than using decimals or percentages, please use whole
numbers or fractions to fill in the blanks.

“A probability near _____ (Answer: 0) indicates a really unlikely event,

a probability around ______ (Answer: ½) indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a
probability near _______ (Answer: 1) indicates a very likely event.”

Go ahead and write your answers on your white boards, in the order you wrote them on your worksheet,
and hold them up so I can make sure we all filled in the blanks correctly.

Ask students to explain why they chose one answer they did, until the class reaches consensus on the
correct answer. Alternatively, just explain which is the correct answer, which are the incorrect answers,
and why.
 STUDENT WORKSHEET: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Decimal equivalent of 50% : 0 as a percent :

¾ as a percent : 1 as a percent :

Desired list of activities

A.
B.
C.

0 .5 1.0
|--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|
50%

When a fair cube is rolled, which has the higher probability of occurring.
Rolling a 6 OR Rolling a number greater than 4

If two fair cubes are rolled, which has the higher probability of occurring.
At least one cube shows 3 OR Both cubes show 3.

The local meteorologist indicates that the data indicate a 30% chance of rain for each of the next five
days. Indicate on the number line with a
 M the probability of rain for Monday.
 W the probability of rain every day.
 N the probability that it will NOT rain any day.
0 .5 1.0
|--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|
50%

4. Fill in the blanks. “A probability near _____ indicates a really unlikely event,
a probability around _____ indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely,
and a probability near _______ indicates a very likely event.”
Materials
Class set of worksheets
See the Lesson Plan for preparing other necessary materials or their alternatives,
determined by accessible classroom supplies

Accommodations
English Language Learners may need extra support with unfamiliar vocabulary such as
translations, examples, and definitions.