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NMC Horizon Report Preview > 2017 Higher Ed Edition
The NMC Horizon Report Preview provides summaries of each of the upcoming edition’s trends, challenges, and
important developments in educational technology, which were ranked most highly by the expert panel. This
edition is a collaboration between the New Media Consortium (NMC) and the EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative
(ELI). Learn more at www.nmc.org and www.educause.edu/eli.
I. Key Trends Accelerating Higher Ed Tech Adoption
Long-Term Trends: Driving Higher Ed technology adoption for five or more years
§ Advancing Cultures of Innovation .............................................................................................................. 2
§ Deeper Learning Approaches ....................................................................................................................... 2
Mid-Term Trends: Driving Higher Ed technology adoption over the next three to five years
§ Growing Focus on Measuring Learning .................................................................................................... 3
§ Redesigning Learning Spaces ....................................................................................................................... 3
Short-Term Trends: Driving Higher Ed technology over the next one to two years
§ Blended Learning Designs ............................................................................................................................. 4
§ Collaborative Learning Approaches ........................................................................................................... 4
II. Significant Challenges Impeding Higher Ed Tech Adoption
Solvable Challenges: Those which we both understand and know how to solve
§ Improving Digital Literacy .............................................................................................................................. 5
§ Integrating Formal and Informal Learning .............................................................................................. 5
Difficult Challenges: Those we understand but for which solutions are elusive
§ Achievement Gap .............................................................................................................................................. 6
§ Advancing Digital Equity ................................................................................................................................ 6
Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to even define, much less address
§ Managing Knowledge Obsolescence ........................................................................................................ 7
§ Rethinking the Roles of Educators .............................................................................................................. 7
III. Important Developments in Educational Technology for Higher Ed
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
§ Adaptive Learning Technologies ................................................................................................................. 8
§ Mobile Learning ................................................................................................................................................. 8
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
§ Internet of Things .............................................................................................................................................. 9
§ Next-Generation LMS ....................................................................................................................................... 9
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
§ Artificial Intelligence ..................................................................................................................................... 10
§ Natural User Interfaces ................................................................................................................................. 10
Cover photo via BigStock Photography
Key Trends
Long-Term Trends: Driving Higher Ed Tech adoption for five or more years
Advancing
Cultures of Innovation
As campuses have evolved into hotbeds for entrepreneurship and discovery, higher education has
become widely regarded as a vehicle for driving innovation. The focus of this trend has shifted from
understanding the value of fostering the exploration of new ideas to finding ways to replicate it across
a span of diverse and unique learning institutions. Research has been conducted over the past year to
better understand how institutions can nurture the types of culture that promotes experimentation. A
significant element for progressing this movement is the call for higher education to alter its status
quo to accept failure as an important part of the learning process. The act of integrating
entrepreneurship into higher education further acknowledges that every big idea has to start
somewhere, and students and faculty can be equipped with the tools needed to spark real progress. In
order to keep pace, institutions must critically assess their curriculum and implement changes to their
evaluation methods in order to remove barriers that limit the development of new ideas.
Deeper
Learning Approaches
There is a growing emphasis in higher education on deeper learning approaches, defined by the
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation as the mastery of content that engages students in critical
thinking, problem-solving, collaboration, and self-directed learning. In order to remain motivated,
students need to be able to make clear connections the real world, and how the new knowledge and
skills will impact them. Project-based learning, challenge-based learning, inquiry-based learning, and
similar methods foster more active learning experiences, both inside and outside the classroom. As
the enabling role of technologies learning crystalizes, educators are leveraging these tools to connect
the curriculum with real life applications. These approaches are decidedly more student-centered,
allowing learners to take control of how they engage with a subject, even brainstorming solutions to
pressing global problems and beginning to implement them in their communities.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 2
Key Trends
Mid-Term Trends: Driving Higher Ed Tech adoption over the next three to five years
Growing
Focus on Measuring Learning
The growing focus on measuring learning describes a renewed interest in assessment and the wide
variety of methods and tools that educators use to evaluate, measure, and document the academic
readiness, learning progress, skill acquisition, or educational needs of students. As societal and
economic factors redefine what skills are necessary in today’s workforce, educational institutions must
rethink how to define, measure, and demonstrate mastery of subjects, skills, and competencies. The
proliferation of data mining software and developments within online learning, mobile learning, and
learning management systems are coalescing toward learning environments that leverage analytics
and visualization software to portray learning data in a multidimensional and portable manner. In
online and blended courses, data can reveal how student actions contribute to progress and learning
gains. A recent development in measuring learning is learning analytics, which aims to track students’
interactions with online environments and learning materials to instructors with an accurate snapshot
of learner progress and challenges. This continuous data collection and analysis empowers students to
take an active part in their learning, targets at-risk student populations, and assesses factors affecting
completion and student success.
Redesigning
Learning Spaces
Some thought leaders believe that new forms of teaching and learning require new spaces for
teaching and learning. More universities are helping to facilitate these emerging models of education,
such as the flipped classroom, by rearranging learning environments to accommodate more active
learning. Educational settings are increasingly designed to facilitate project-based interactions with
attention to mobility, flexibility, and multiple device usage. Wireless bandwidth is being upgraded in
institutions to create “smart rooms” that support web conferencing and other methods of remote,
collaborative communication. Large displays and screens are being installed to enable collaboration
on digital projects and informal presentations. As higher education continues to move away from
traditional lecture-based programming and to more hands-on scenarios, university classrooms will
start to resemble real-world work and social environments that facilitate organic interactions and
cross-disciplinary problem solving.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 3
Key Trends
Short-Term Trends: Driving Higher Ed Tech adoption over the next one to two years
Blended
Learning Designs
Over the past several years, perceptions of online learning have been shifting in its favor as more
learners and educators see it as a viable alternative to some forms of face-to-face learning. Drawing
from best practices in online and face-to-face methods, blended learning is on the rise at universities
and colleges. The affordances of blended learning offers are now well understood, and its flexibility,
ease of access, and the integration of sophisticated multimedia and technologies are high among the
list of appeals. One notable form of blended learning is the flipped classroom, a model that rearranges
how students spend their time. Rather than the instructor using class time for lectures, students access
learning materials online at home, freeing up class time to allow student-teacher interactions that
foster more active learning. Conversely, the recent rapid rise and burnout of other online offerings,
such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), has led to skepticism in the field. However, progress in
learning analytics; adaptive learning; and a combination of cutting-edge asynchronous and
synchronous tools will continue to advance the state of blended learning and keep it compelling,
though many of these methods are still the subjects of experiments and research by online learning
providers and institutions.
Collaborative
Learning Approaches
Collaborative learning, which refers to students or educators working together in peer-to-peer or
group activities, is based on the perspective that learning is a social construct. The approach involves
activities generally focused around four principles: placing the learner at the center, emphasizing
interaction, working in groups, and developing solutions to real challenges. In addition to improving
student engagement and achievement, collaborative learning is especially imperative for bolstering
openness to diversity, exposing students to people from all different demographics. Educators also
benefit through personal learning networks, or online communities of practice, where ideas and
insights are regularly exchanged. While this trend is rooted in progressive pedagogy, technology plays
an important role in the implementation of collaborative learning models; cloud-based services, apps,
and other digital tools promote persistent connectivity, enabling students and educators to access
and contribute to shared workspaces, anytime and anywhere.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 4
Significant Challenges
Solvable Challenges: Those which we both understand and know how to solve
Improving
Digital Literacy
With the proliferation of the Internet, mobile devices, and other technologies that are now pervasive
in education, the traditional view of literacy as the ability to read and write has expanded to
encompass understanding digital tools and information. This new category of competence is affecting
how education institutions address literacy issues in their curriculum objectives and teacher
development programs. Lack of consensus on what comprises digital literacy is impeding many
colleges and universities from formulating adequate policies and programs that address this
challenge. Discussions among educators have included the idea of digital literacy as equating to
competence with a wide range of digital tools for varied educational purposes, or as an indicator of
having the ability to critically evaluate resources available on the web. However, both definitions are
broad and ambiguous. Compounding this issue is the notion that digital literacy encompasses skills
that differ for educators and learners, as teaching with technology is inherently different from learning
with it.
Integrating
Formal and Informal Learning
Traditional approaches to teaching and learning with roots in the 18th century and earlier are still very
common in many institutions, and often stifle learning as much as they foster it. As the internet has
brought the ability to learn something about almost anything at the palm of one’s hand, there is an
increasing interest in the kinds of self-directed, curiosity-based learning that have long been common
in museums, science centers, and personal learning networks. These, along with life experience and
other more serendipitous forms of learning fall under the banner of informal learning, and serve to
enhance student engagement by encouraging them to follow their own learning pathways and
interests. Many experts believe that a blending of formal and informal methods of teaching and
learning can create an education environment that fosters experimentation, curiosity, and above all,
creativity. In this sense, an overarching goal is to cultivate the pursuit of lifelong learning in all
students and educators. However, formally acknowledging and rewarding skills both educators and
students master outside of the classroom is compounding this challenge.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 5
Significant Challenges
Difficult Challenges: Those we understand but for which solutions are elusive
Achievement
Gap
The achievement gap, also commonly referred to as the college completion gap, reflects a disparity in
the enrollment and academic performance between student groups, especially as defined by
socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity, or gender. While emerging technological developments such as
digital courseware and mobiles apps have made it easier for people to engage with learning
resources, significant issues of access and equity persist among students from low-income, minority,
single-parent families, and other disadvantaged groups. The one-size-fits-all approach of traditional
higher education paradigms is ineffective as it is in stark contrast with an increasingly diverse global
student population. For example, the number of students with part- and full-time jobs is growing,
which requires more flexible degree plans. The challenge facing higher education is to close the gap
by catering to all learners’ needs, aligning postsecondary programs with deeper learning outcomes
and the acquisition of 21st century skills, enabled by adaptive and personalized learning strategies,
that lead to goal achievement and gainful employment.
Advancing
Digital Equity
Digital equity refers to unequal access to broadband internet and digital tools. UNESCO reports that
while 3.2 billion people across the globe are using the internet, only 41% of those that live in
developing countries are online. Further, 200 million fewer women than men are accessing the
internet around the world. The United Nations has identified internet access as essential to meeting its
sustainable development goals of alleviating poverty and hunger and improving health and
education worldwide by 2030. This rampant social justice issue is not just impacting developing
nations: The Center for Public Integrity has found that US families in neighborhoods with median
incomes in the lowest 20% nationwide are five times more likely not to have broadband access than
households in areas with median incomes in the top 20%. More than 30 million Americans lack access
to high-speed internet. Efforts to improve these figures are necessary to promote full participation and
communication within society. Another facet of digital equity involves technology’s role in advancing
access to higher education for underrepresented student populations. Online learning is enabled by
high-speed internet access, while use of open educational resources (OER) available in repositories
such as ISKME’s OER Commons provide cost savings to students. Government and philanthropic
initiatives are working to address connectivity gaps and increase use of OER.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 6
Significant Challenges
Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to even define, much less address
Managing
Knowledge Obsolescence
Simply staying organized and current presents a challenge to academics in a world where information,
software tools, and devices advance at a strenuous rate. New developments in technology are
presenting exciting opportunities for higher education institutions, and their potential for improving
the quality of operations and services is undeniable. However, it can be overwhelming for faculty and
staff to keep up with the ever-changing landscape; just as they are able to master one technology, it
seems a new version launches. An explosion of user-created content is also giving rise to ideas and
opinions on a multitude of topics, but following the hundreds of available authorities means sifting
through a mountain of information more frequently than most faculty and staff can manage. There is
a need for effective tools and filters for finding, interpreting, organizing, and retrieving the data that is
the most relevant and insightful. Additionally, societal changes and financial pressures are
transforming the work of academics, requiring greater agility and a constant pursuit of absorbing new
technologies and skills.
Rethinking
the Roles of Educators
Educators are increasingly expected to be adept at a variety of technology-based and other
approaches for content delivery, learner support, and assessment; to collaborate with other teachers
both inside and outside their schools; to routinely use digital strategies in their work with students; to
act as guides and mentors in to promote student-centered learning; and to organize their own work
and comply with administrative documentation and reporting requirements. Students add to these
expectations through their own use of technology to socialize, organize, and informally learn on a
daily basis. The integration of technology into everyday life is causing many educational thought
leaders to argue that institutions should be providing ways for students to continue to engage in
learning activities, formal and informal, beyond the traditional school day. As this trend gathers steam,
many institutions across the world are rethinking the primary responsibilities of educators. Related to
these evolving expectations are changes in the ways educators engage in their own continuing
professional development, much of which involves social media and online tools and resources.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 7
Important Developments in Educational Technology
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
Adaptive
Learning Technologies
Adaptive learning technologies refer to software and online platforms that adjust to individual
students’ needs as they learn. According to a paper commissioned by the Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation, adaptive learning is a “sophisticated, data-driven, and in some cases, nonlinear approach
to instruction and remediation, adjusting to a learner's interactions and demonstrated performance
level, and subsequently anticipating what types of content and resources learners need at a specific
point in time to make progress." In this sense, contemporary educational tools are now capable of
learning the way people learn; enabled by machine learning technologies, they can adapt to each
student’s progress and adjust content in real-time or provide customized exercises when they need it.
In higher education, many faculty envision these adaptive platforms as new, patient tutors that can
provide personalized instruction on a large scale. There are two levels to adaptive learning
technologies — the first platform reacts to individual user data and adapts instructional material
accordingly, while the second leverages aggregated data across a large sample of users for insights
into the design and adaptation of curricula.
Mobile
Learning
The pervasiveness of mobile devices is changing the way humans interact with information and their
surroundings. Smart devices, including phones, tablets, and watches, are now capable of acting as
miniaturized computers; their storage space and processing power has increased dramatically with
each subsequent release. Mobile learning, or m-learning, leverages this technology to make learning
portable, meaning a learner can have access to materials virtually anywhere. The first wave of m-
learning came in the form of apps, which are small, low-cost software extensions to devices. Proving
to be a hotbed of development, numerous educational apps have been created, including: language
learning apps, math and science tutorials, and more. Since their release, mobile apps have become
adopted into the mainstream, seemingly plateauing the trajectory of m-learning. Although recently
educators have witnessed the revival of m-learning through a subsequent demand for more online
learning opportunities and an increase in BYOD initiatives across institutions. Overtime, m-learning
continues to gain traction in education because it is particularly useful for learning as it enables
people to learn and experience new concepts wherever they are, often across multiple devices.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 8
Important Developments in Educational Technology
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
Internet
of Things
The internet of things connects the physical world with the world of information through the web.
They do so through TCP/IP, the set of standards that enables network connections and specifies how
information finds its way to and from myriad connections it contains. TCP/IP was formulated in the
1970s by Vinton Cerf and Robert E. Kahn. The advent of TCP/IP v6, launched in 2006, added enormous
new addressing capabilities to the internet, and enabled objects and the information they might carry
in attached sensors or devices to be addressable and searchable across the web. This expanded
address space is particularly useful for tracking objects that monitor sensitive equipment or materials,
point-of-sale purchases, passport tracking, inventory management, identification, and similar
applications. Embedded chips, sensors, or tiny processors attached to an object allow helpful
information about the object, such as cost, age, temperature, color, pressure, or humidity to be
transmitted over the internet. This simple connection allows remote management, status monitoring,
tracking, and alerts if the objects they are attached to are in danger of being damaged or spoiled.
Traditional web tools allow objects to be annotated with descriptions, photographs, and connections
to other objects, and any other contextual information.
Next-Generation
LMS
Learning management systems (LMS), also referred to as Virtual Learning Environments, comprise a
category of software and web applications that enable the online delivery of course materials as well
as the tracking and reporting of student participation. Viewed as a centralized location for the
ephemera of learning experiences, LMS have long been adopted by colleges and universities
worldwide to manage and administer online and blended courses. It is commonplace for students to
access syllabi and readings, submit assignments, check grades, and contact peers and instructors
through their institution’s LMS, while faculty monitor student engagement and performance at
individual and course levels. However, some thought leaders believe current LMS are limited in
capacity, too narrowly focused on the administration of learning rather than the learning itself. Next-
generation LMS, also called next-generation digital learning environments (NGDLE), refers to the
development of more flexible spaces that support personalization, meet universal design standards,
and play a larger role in formative learning assessment. Rather than existing as single applications,
EDUCAUSE notes in a recent report in Next Generation Digital Learning Environments that they are a
“confederation of IT systems and application components that adhere to common standards …that
would enable diversity while fostering coherence.”
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 9
Important Developments in Educational Technology
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
Artificial
Intelligence
In the field of artificial intelligence (AI), computer science is being leveraged to create intelligent
machines that more closely resemble humans in their functions. The knowledge engineering that
allows computers to simulate human perception, learning, and decision-making is based on access to
categories, properties, and relationships between various information sets. Neural networks, a
significant area of AI research, is currently proving to be valuable for more natural user interfaces
through voice recognition and natural language processing, allowing humans to interact with
machines similarly to how they interact with each other. By design, neural networks model the
biological function of animal brains to interpret and react to specific inputs such as words and tone of
voice. As the underlying technologies continue to develop, AI has the potential to enhance online
learning, adaptive learning software, and simulations in ways that more intuitively respond to and
engage with students.
Natural
User Interfaces
A growing list of devices built with natural user interfaces (NUIs) accept input in the form of taps,
swipes, and other ways of touching; hand and arm motions; body movement; and increasingly,
natural language. Tablets and smartphones are the first in a growing array of devices that allow
computers to recognize and interpret natural physical gestures as a means of control. These natural
user interfaces allow users to engage in virtual activities with movements similar to what they would
use in the real world, manipulating content intuitively. The idea of being able to have a completely
natural interaction with your device is not new, but neither has its full potential been realized. What
makes natural user interfaces especially interesting this year is the increasing high fidelity of systems
that understand gestures, facial expressions, and their nuances, as well as the convergence of gesture-
sensing technology with voice recognition. Users interact with their devices in an almost natural
fashion, with gesture, expression, and voice communicating their intentions. The next wave of NUIs
will likely be electrovibration, while involves the use of an electrostatic force to produce detailed
tactile sensations that users can feel. Seen as the next evolution of touchscreen technology, it will
allow users to not only provide touch-based input, but also tactile output via a wide variety of
textures, topography, and other features as they interact with the screen.
© NMC, 2017 NMC Horizon Report Preview Page 10
