Effects of Nuclear Weapons
Alexander Glaser
WWS556d
Princeton University
February 12, 2007
S. Glasstone and P. J. Dolan
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, Third Edition
U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C., 1977
1
Nuclear Weapon Tests
USA Russia U.K. France China Total
1945-63 1949-62 1952-58 1960-74 1964-80
Atmo-
528
spheric 215 219 21 50 23
1951-92 1961-90 1962-91 1961-96 1969-96
Under-
1517
ground 815 496 24 160 22
Total 1030 715 45 210 45 2045
India (1974, 1998): 1 + 5 Pakistan (1998): ca. 6 North Korea (2006): 1
2
3
Introduction / Overview
4
Burst Types
• Air burst
• High-altitude burst (above 100,000 ft)
• Underwater burst
• Underground burst
• Surface burst
In the following: primary focus on (medium-altitude) air bursts
(fireball above surface, weak coupling into ground)
5
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Typical distribution of energy released
• Thermal radiation (including light) (35%)
• Blast (pressure shock wave) (50%)
• Nuclear radiation (prompt and delayed) (15%)
6
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Sequence of events, Part I
FIREBALL
starts to form in less than a millionth of a second after explosion
several tens of million of degrees: transformation of all matter into gas/plasma
thermal radiation as x-rays, absorbed by the surrounding atmosphere
for 1 Mt explosion : 440 ft in one millisecond, 5,700 ft in 10 seconds
after one minute: cooled, no longer visible radiation
Formation of the fireball triggers the destructive effects of the nuclear explosion
7
Trinity Test
July 16, 1945
Shock front
Fireball
Mach front
Dirt cloud
8
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Sequence of events, Part II
RADIOACTIVE CLOUD
During expansion of the fireball, vaporized matter condenses to a cloud
containing solid particles of weapon debris
Fireball becomes doughnut-shaped, violent internal circulatory motion
Air is entrained from the bottom
“mushroom” cloud if dirt and debris sucked up from earth’s surface
(Source term for radioactive fallout)
9
Cutaway showing artist’s conception of toroidal circulation within the radioactive cloud
Source: Glasstone, Figure 2.07a
10
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Sequence of events, Part III
AIR BLAST / SHOCK WAVE
Pressure wave develops immediately after explosion
and moves outward from the fireball
After 10 seconds of 1 Mt explosion:
diameter of fireball: 5,700 ft, distance of shock front: 3 miles
Wave is reflected from surface, both waves merge to create “Mach wave”
THERMAL RADIATION
Reemitted radiation from the fireball (secondary thermal radiation)
Duration: about 10 seconds for 1 Mt explosion (99% of total thermal energy)
11
Heat and Shock Waves
(Film footage: Federal Civil Defense Administration, ca. 1955)
12
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Sequence of events, Part IV
INITIAL (PROMPT/DIRECT) NUCLEAR RADIATION
Defined as radiation releases within the first minute
mostly neutrons and gammas (directly from the explosion or from fission products)
DELAYED NUCLEAR RADIATION / FALLOUT
Origin: material lifted into the fireball right after the explosion
Mixed with radioactive residues of weapon (activated debris, fission products, ...)
Early and delayed fallout: Depending on height of burst, weather conditions, etc.
13
Air Blast
14
Shock Wave and Winds Velocities
Peak overpressure Max. wind velocity
100 psi 1400 mi/hr
50 psi 900 mi/hr
20 psi 500 mi/hr
10 psi 300 mi/hr
Source: Glasstone, Figures 3.21 and 3.04, Table 3.07
15
Damage Characteristics for
Specific Overpressures
Representative data, e.g. from Physical Vulnerability Handbook
Damage Overpressure
Light housing destroyed 5 psi__
Brick housing/commercial buildings destroyed 10 psi__
Reinforced concrete structures destroyed 20 psi__
Nuclear weapon storage bunkers 100-500 psi__
Command bunkers 100-1000 psi__
Missile silos 500-10000 psi__
Deep underground command facilities 1000-10000 psi__
16
Percentages of Population Killed
(as a function of peak overpressure)
98%
Source: NRDC, The U.S. Nuclear War Plan: A Time for Change, 2001
Original source: OTA, The Effects of Nuclear War, 1979
17
h d √
3
= = Y
h1 d1
Peak overpressures on the ground for a 1-kiloton burst (intermediate-pressure range)
Source: Glasstone, Figure 3.73b
18
Analysis of Attacks
on Hiroshima and Nagasaki
√
3
h= Y × h1
Calculated value of the Height of Burst (HOB) for 15 psi Real value
√
3
Hiroshima h= 15 × 670 ft ≈ 1650 ft 1640 ft
√
3
Nagasaki h= 22 × 670 ft ≈ 1880 ft 1900 ft
Height of Burst at Hiroshima and Nagasaki chosen to maximize area
over which 15 psi or more occurs (1.1-1.3 miles in diameter)
(2.5x times more area destroyed compared to surface burst)
19
2 Mt: 5.7 mi
200 kt: 2.7 mi
20 kt: 1.2 mi
Height of burst selected to maximize area over which 15 psi or more occurs
20
Impact of Fizzle-Yield Explosion
(Area of complete destruction)
3 kt
2 kt
Source: Ted Postol, MIT
21
Thermal Radiation
22
Thermal Fluence and its Effects
! " 3.07 Y(kt)f τ
2
Q cal/cm ≈
R(miles)2
Glasstone, Equation 7.96.4
Thermal partition f: about 0.35; Transmittance to target on the ground: Figure 7.98
Type of material Effect Q(min)
Human skin Second degree burns 6 cal/cm2__
Human skin Third degree burns 10 cal/cm2__
Fine or course grass 8-9 cal/cm2__
Deciduous leaves 6 cal/cm2__
Ignites
Paper 4-10 cal/cm2__
Cotton shirt (khaki colored) 21 cal/cm2__
Glasstone, Tables 7.35 and 7.40
23
Mass Fires
Initial fires (started by the thermal radiation) combine and form “super fire”
Minimum thermal fluence required: about 10 cal/cm2
High velocity winds directed towards center of fire, “chimney effect”
Firestorm developed in Hiroshima about 20 minutes after explosion
Death caused by heat or suffocation
24
Mass fire: 7.0 mi
200 kt: 2.7 mi
25
Nuclear Radiation
26
Effects of Acute Whole Body
Exposure to Radiation
1-2 Sv 2-5 Sv 5-10 Sv 10-50 Sv > 50 Sv
Incidence 0-50% 50-90% 100% 100% 100%
Initial
Symptoms
Latency > 3 hrs 1-2 hrs 0.5-1 hr 0.5 hr Minutes
Lethality 0-10% 0-90% 0-90% 90-100% 100%
Death occurs within Months Weeks Weeks 2 weeks 1-48 hrs
Leading system Blood forming (bone marrow) Intestinal Nervous
Source: United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation: Sources, Effects, and
Risks of Ionizing Radiation. 1988 Report to the General Assembly, United Nations, New York, 1988.
Annex G, Early effects in man of high doses of radiation, in particular, Table 13. Similar information
is listed in Glasstone, Table 12.108.
100 rad = 1 Gy
27
Initial Radiation
(Dose absorbed in the first minute after explosion)
1000 rads for 20 kt explosion
Diameter: 2 x 4100 ft (ca. 1.5 mi)
28
Fallout
Early fallout fraction for surface burst: 40-70% within one day
Fallout pattern is difficult to predict
Strongly depends on terrain and meteorological conditions
Fission products and other radioactive debris condense onto
solid and molten soil minerals (Particle size: 0.001-1 mm)
29
Methodology to Predict Fallout
(cf. Glasstone Figure 9.26, Figure 9.93, and Table 9.93)
30
Total-dose contours from early fallout after a
surface burst with a total yield of 2 megatons and
1-megaton fission yield (15 mph effective wind
speed).
Source: Glasstone, Figure 9.86b
1000 rads (10 Gy):
Dose to (unprotected) humans at a distance of
30 miles from explosion (in the direction of wind)
Total area: about 200 square miles
31
Estimated local (integrated) dose contours in rads at 96 hours after the BRAVO (15 Mt) test explosion
Source: Glasstone, Figure 9.105
32
Source: Ted Postol, lecture notes
33
“[I]t seems reasonable to assume that the destruction of,
say, 25 percent of its population (55 million people) and more
than two-thirds of its industrial capacity would mean the
destruction of the Soviet Union as a national society. Such a level
of destruction would certainly represent intolerable punishment
to any industrialized nation and thus should serve as an effective
deterrent.”
Secretary of Defense McNamara
November 21, 1962 memo to President Kennedy
34
35
Conclusion / Epilogue
36
“Duck and Cover”
Federal Civil Defense Administration, 1951
37
“The Day After”
ABC Television, November 1983
38
39
