Subject Name: System Modeling & Simulation

Subject Code: 10CS82

Prepared By : Ms. Sanchari Saha ( ASCP)

Department : Computer Science & Engineering

 UNIT-I

INTRODUCTION
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Prepared by-

Sanchari Saha, Assistant Professor,

Dept of CSE, MVJCE
Topic Details
 When simulation is the appropriate tool and when it is not appropriate;
 Advantages and disadvantages of Simulation;
 Areas of application;
 Systems and system environment;
 Components of a system;
 Discrete and continuous systems;
 Types of Models;
 Steps in a Simulation Study.
 Simulation example: queuing systems
 Simulation of inventory system
 Simulation of reliability problem
 Self check Exercise
 Summary
Learning Outcome:

Students will understand:-

The basic concept of simulation

When to use the simulation model
Application area, components of simulation model
Types of simulation model
How to solve queuing problems, inventory problems, reliability problems
using simulation.
 1. When simulation is the appropriate tool

and when it is not appropriate

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Simulation Definition:

Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system

over time. Simulation involves the generation of an artificial history of the
system, and the observation of that artificial history to draw inferences
concerning the operating characteristics of the real system that is
represented.
hen simulation is an appropriate tool?
imulation enables the study of and experimentation with the internal interactions of a
mplex system, or of a subsystem within a complex system.
nformational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and the effect
hose alternations on the model‘s behavior can be observer.
he knowledge gained in designing a simulation model can be of great value toward
gesting improvement in the system under investigation.
y changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs, valuable insight may
obtained into which variables are most important and how variables interact.
imulation can be used as a pedagogical device to reinforce analytic solution
hodologies.
imulation can be used to experiment with new designs or policies prior to
lementation, so as to prepare for what may happen.
imulation can be used to verify analytic solutions.
y simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can be determined.
imulation models designed for training, allow learning without the cost and disruption
n-the-job learning.
 When simulation is not an appropriate tool?

Simulation should be used when the problem cannot be solved using common
sense.
Simulation should not be used if the problem can be solved analytically.
Simulation should not be used, if it is easier to perform direct experiments.
Simulation should not be used, if the costs exceeds savings.
 Simulation should not be performed, if the resources or time are not available.
If no data is available, not even estimate simulation is not advised.
 If there is not enough time or the person are not available, simulation is not
appropriate.
If managers have unreasonable expectation say, too much soon – or the
power of simulation is over estimated, simulation may not be appropriate.
If system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined, simulation is not
appropriate.
 2. Advantages & Disadvantages of

simulation

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 Advantages of simulation
Simulation can also be used to study systems in the design stage
Simulation models are run rather than solver.
New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flow, etc can be
explored without disrupting the ongoing operations of the real system.
 New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems can be tested
without committing resources for their acquisition.
Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested for feasibility.
Time can be compressed or expanded allowing for a speedup or slowdown of
the phenomena under investigation.
Insight can be obtained about the interaction of variables.
Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables to the performance of
the system.
Bottleneck analysis can be performed indication where work-in process,
information materials and so on are being excessively delayed.
A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates rather than how
individuals think the system operates.
what-if questions can be answered.
Useful in the design of new systems
 Disadvantages of simulation

Model building requires special training.

Simulation results may be difficult to interpret.
Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.
Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical solution is
possible or even preferable.
 3. Application areas of simulation

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Manufacturing Applications
1. Analysis of electronics assembly operations
2. Design and evaluation of a selective assembly station for high precision scroll
compressor shells.
3. Comparison of dispatching rules for semiconductor manufacturing using large
facility models.
Semiconductor Manufacturing
1. Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility models.
2. The corrupting influence of variability.
3. A new lot-release rule for wafer fabs.
Construction Engineering
1. Construction of a dam embankment.
2. Trench less renewal of underground urban infrastructures.
3. Activity scheduling in a dynamic, multiproject setting.
Military Applications
1. Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in a Army recruiting station.
2. Design and test of an intelligent controller for autonomous underwater vehicles.
3. Modeling military requirements for nonwarfighting operations.
Logistics, Transportation and Distribution Applications
1. Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning algorithm.
2. Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance.
3. Parametric Modeling in rail-capacity planning.
Business Process Simulation
1. Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate assignment.
2. Product development program planning.
3. Reconciliation of business and system modeling.
Human Systems
1. Modeling human performance in complex systems.
2. Studying the human element in out traffic control.
 4. System & System Environment

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A system is defined as an aggregation or assemblage of objects joined in some regular
interaction or interdependence toward the accomplishment of some purpose.

In the above system there are certain distinct objects, each of which possesses properties
of interest. There are also certain interactions occurring in the system that cause changes
in the system.
The external components which interact with the system and produce necessary changes
are said to constitute the system environment. In modeling systems, it is necessary to
decide on the boundary between the system and its environment. This decision may
depend on t he purpose of the study.

Ex: In a factory system, the factors controlling arrival of orders may be considered to
be outside the factory but yet a part of the system environment. When, we consider the
demand and supply of goods, there is certainly a relationship between the factory output
and arrival of orders. This relationship is considered as an activity of the system.
Endogenous System
The term endogenous is used to describe activities and events occurring within a
system.
Ex: Drawing cash in a bank.

Exogenous System
The term exogenous is used to describe activities and events in the
environment that affect the system.
Ex: Arrival of customers.

Closed System
A system for which there is no exogenous activity and event is said to be a closed.
Ex: Water in an insulated flask.

Open system
A system for which there is exogenous activity and event is said to be a open.
Ex: Bank system.
 5. Components of a System

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Entity :
An entity is an object of interest in a system.
Ex: In the factory system, departments, orders, parts and products are The entities.
Attribute
An attribute denotes the property of an entity.
Ex: Quantities for each order, type of part, or number of machines in a
Department are attributes of factory system.
Activity
Any process causing changes in a system is called as an activity.
Ex: Manufacturing process of the department.
State of the System
The state of a system is defined as the collection of variables necessary
to describe a system at any time, relative to the objective of study. Ex: waiting
state of a customer
Event
An event is defined as an instaneous occurrence that may change the state of the
system. Ex: arrival/departure event
 6. Discrete & Continuous System

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Continuous Systems
Systems in which the changes are predominantly smooth are called continuous
system.

Ex: Head of a water behind a dam.

Discrete Systems
Systems in which the changes are predominantly discontinuous are called
discrete systems.
Ex: Bank – the number of customer‘s changes only when a customer arrives or
when the service provided a customer is completed.
 7. Types of models

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A model is defined as a representation of a system for the purpose of studying the system.
It is necessary to consider only those aspects of the system that affect the problem
under investigation. These aspects are represented in a model, and by definition it is a
simplification of the system.

Types of Models
The various types models are

Mathematical or Physical Model

Static Model
Dynamic Model
Deterministic Model
Stochastic Model
Discrete Model
Continuous Model
Mathematical Model
Uses symbolic notation and the mathematical equations to represent a system.
Static Model
Represents a system at a particular point of time and also known as Monte-Carlo
simulation.
Dynamic Model
Represents systems as they change over time. Ex: Simulation of a bank
Deterministic Model
Contains no random variables. They have a known set of inputs which will result in a
unique set of outputs. Ex: Arrival of patients to the Dentist at the scheduled appointment
time.
Stochastic Model
Has one or more random variable as inputs. Random inputs leads to random outputs. Ex:
Simulation of a bank involves random interarrival and service times.
Discrete and Continuous Model
Used in an analogous manner. Simulation models may be mixed both with discrete and
continuous. The choice is based on the characteristics of the system and the
objective of the study.
 8. Steps in a simulation study

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1. Problem formulation
Every study begins with a statement of the problem, provided by policy makers. Analyst
ensures its clearly understood. If it is developed by analyst policy makers should
understand and agree with it.
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan
The objectives indicate the questions to be answered by simulation. At this point a
determination should be made concerning whether simulation is the appropriate
methodology.
Assuming it is appropriate, the overall project plan should include
A statement of the alternative systems
A method for evaluating the effectiveness of these alternatives
Plans for the study in terms of the number of people involved
Cost of the study
The number of days required to accomplish each phase of the work with the anticipated
results.
3. Model conceptualization
The construction of a model of a system is probably as much art as science. The art of
modeling is enhanced by an ability
To abstract the essential features of a problem
To select and modify basic assumptions that characterize the system
To enrich and elaborate the model until a useful approximation results
Thus, it is best to start with a simple model and build toward greater complexity. Model
conceptualization enhance the quality of the resulting model and increase the confidence
of the model user in the application of the model.
4. Data collection
There is a constant interplay between the construction of model and the collection
of needed input data. Done in the early stages. Objective kind of data are to be collected.
5. Model translation
Real-world systems result in models that require a great deal of information storage and
computation. It can be programmed by using simulation languages or special purpose
simulation software. Simulation languages are powerful and flexible. Simulation
software models development time can be reduced.
6. Verified
It pertains to he computer program and checking the performance. If the input
parameters and logical structure and correctly represented, verification is completed.

7. Validated
It is the determination that a model is an accurate representation of the real system.
Achieved through calibration of the model, an iterative process of comparing the model to
actual system behavior and the discrepancies between the two.

8. Experimental Design
The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined. Which alternatives to
simulate may be a function of runs. For each system design, decisions need to be
made concerning
Length of the initialization period
Length of simulation runs
Number of replication to be made of each run
 .
9. Production runs and analysis
They are used to estimate measures of performance for the system designs that are being
simulated.
10. More runs
Based on the analysis of runs that have been completed. The analyst determines if
additional runs are needed and what design those additional experiments should follow.
11. Documentation and reporting
Two types of documentation: Program documentation & Process documentation
Program documentation
Can be used again by the same or different analysts to understand how the program
operates. Further modification will be easier. Model users can change the input parameters
for better performance.
Process documentation
Gives the history of a simulation project. The result of all analysis should be
reported clearly and concisely in a final report. This enables to review the final
formulation and alternatives, results of the experiments and the recommended solution to
the problem. The final report provides a vehicle of certification.
 .
Implementation:
Success depends on the previous steps. If the model user has been thoroughly involved and
understands the nature of the model and its outputs, likelihood of a vigorous implementation
is enhanced.

The simulation model building can be broken into 4 phases.

I Phase
Consists of steps 1 and 2
It is period of discovery/orientation
The analyst may have to restart the process if it is not fine-tuned
Recalibrations and clarifications may occur in this phase or another phase.

II Phase
Consists of steps 3,4,5,6 and 7
A continuing interplay is required among the steps
Exclusion of model user results in implications during implementation
III Phase
Consists of steps 8,9 and 10
Conceives a thorough plan for experimenting
Discrete-event stochastic is a statistical experiment
The output variables are estimates that contain random error and therefore
proper statistical analysis is required.

IV Phase
Consists of steps 11 and 12
Successful implementation depends on the involvement of user and every
steps
successful completion.
 9. Simulation of queuing system

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Grocery Store problem
In the single-channel queue, the calling population is infinite; that is, if a unit leaves the
calling population and joins the waiting line or enters service, there is no change in the
arrival rate of other units that may need service.
Arrivals for service occur one at a time in a random fashion; once they join the waiting
line, they are eventually served. In addition, service times are of some random
length according to a probability distribution which does not change over time.
The system capacity; has no limit, meaning that any number of units can wait in line.
Finally, units are served in the order of their arrival by a single server or channel.
A small grocery store has only one checkout counter. Customers arrive at this
checkout counter at random from 1 to 8 minutes apart. Each possible value
of interarrival time has the same probability of occurrence. The service times vary
from 1 to 6 minutes with the probabilities shown in table 5. The problem is to
analyze the system by simulating the arrival and service of 20 customers
Service time distribution
Time between arrivals determination
Service time generated
Able-Baker carhop problem
This example illustrates the simulation procedure when there is more than one
service channel. Consider a drive-in restaurant where carhops take orders and bring food
to the car. Cars arrive in the manner shown in table 1. There are two carhops-Able and
Baker. Able is better able to do the job and works a bit faster than Baker. The distribution
of their service times are shown in tables 2 and 3
The simulation proceeds in a manner similar to example 1, except that it its more
complex because of the two servers. A simplifying rule is that Able gets the customer if
both carhops are idle. Perhaps, Able has seniority. (The solution would be different if the
decision were made at random or by any other rule.)
9. Simulation of Inventory system

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The newspaper problem

A classical inventory problem concerns the purchase and sale of newspapers. The paper
seller buys the papers for 33 cents each and sells them for 50 cents each. Newspapers not
sold at the end of the day are sold as scrap for 5 cents each. Newspapers can be purchased in
bundles of 10. Thus, the paper seller can buy 50, 60, and so on.

There are three types of Newsday‘s, ―good,ǁ ―fair,ǁ and ―poor,ǁ with
probabilities of 0.35, 0.45, and 0.25, respectively. The distribution of papers demanded
on each of these days is given in table .

The problem is to determine the total profit .This will be accomplished by simulating
demands for 20 days and recording profits from sales each day
On the fifth day the demand is greater than the supply. The revenue from sales is
$35.00, since only 70 papers are available under this policy. An additional 20
papers could have been sold. Thus, a lost profit of $3.40 (20*17 cents) is
assessed. The daily profit is determined as follows:

Profit = $35.00 - $23.10 - $3.40 + 0 = $8.50

The profit for the 20-day period is the sum of the daily profits,
$174.90. it can also be computed from the totals for the 20 days of the
simulation as follows:

Total profit = $645 - $462 - $13 .60 + $5.50 = $174.90

 Simulation of an (M, N) Inventory System

Suppose that the maximum inventory level, M, is 11 units and the review period,
N, is 5 days. The problem is to estimate, by simulation, the average ending units
in inventory and the number of days when a shortage condition occurs.

The distribution of the number of units demanded per day is shown in table 9. In this
example, lead-time is a random variable, as shown in table 10. Assume that orders are
placed at the close of business and are received for inventory at the beginning as
determined by the lead-time.
To make an estimate of the mean units in ending inventory, many cycles would
have to be simulated. In the same fashion remaining 4 cycles can be done.

The random-digit assignments for daily demand and lead time are shown in the
rightmost columns of tables 9 and 10.

Based on five cycles of simulation, the average ending inventory is approximately

3.5 (88/25) units. On 2 of 25 days a shortage condition existed.
Reliability Problem
M illing M achine

B earing B earing B earing

R ep airp erso n

 Downtime for the mill is estimated at $5 per minute.

 The direct on-site cost of the repairperson is $15 per hour.
 It takes 20 minutes to change one bearing, 30 minutes to change two bearings,
and 40 minutes to change three bearings.
 The bearings cost $16 each.
 A proposal has been made to replace all three bearings whenever a bearing fails.
 Self Check Exercise

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•List the situations when simulation is an appropriate tool.
•List the situations when simulation is not appropriate tool.
•Write the advantages & disadvantages/ merits & demerits of Simulation.
•What is system & system environment?
•What are the components of a system? List & briefly explain them.
•Explain with a flowchart steps in a simulation study .
•Queue Problem: single server problem (grocery store), 2 server problem
(able-baker problem)
•Inventory Problem: news paper problem, M,N inventory problem
•Reliability problem: Replacing bearings in a milling machine.
 Summary

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Simulation
the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time to
develop a set of assumptions of mathematical, logical, and symbolic
relationship between the entities of interest, of the system. to estimate the
measures of performance of the system with the simulation-generated data

Simulation modeling can be used

as an analysis tool for predicting the effect of changes to existing systems
as a design tool to predict the performance of new systems
 END of UNIT-1

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