Introduction to Investments
EXPECTED RETURNS = sum of (probabilities & possible returns) Prof S G Badrinath
Measuring Expected Returns, Discussing Risk
Prob. Possible Return (over next year)
0.5 50%
0.3 10%
0.2 -20%
Exp. Return = 0.5 * 50% + 0.3 * 10% + 0.2 * -20% = 24%
Standard deviation = 28%, link to Normal Distribution
Introduction to Investments
Risks Prof S G Badrinath
Measuring Expected Returns, Discussing Risk
• Business Risk
• Financial Risk
• Exchange rate/Country risks
• Systematic and unsystematic risks
• Beta Risk
Systematic risk – risk inherent to the entire market.
– also known as “undiversifiable risk”,
“volatility” or “market risk.”
Unsystematic risk – risk specific to a particular stock or industry.
Introduction to Investments
Beta Risk Prof S G Badrinath
Measuring Expected Returns, Discussing Risk
Statistical measure of systematic risk of an enterprise.
Systematic risk is the only risk that matters – since unsystematic risk cancels out when
you diversify your portfolio.
Beta risk is not diversifiable.
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