CE 501: Surface Water Hydrology

Prof. (Dr.) Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya

Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
Guwahati, Assam
Email: [email protected] Web: www.iitg.ernet.in/rkbc
Example 3:
The annual runoff of a stream is assumed to follow normal distribution with mean of 2390 ha-m and standard deviation of
567 ha-m. Find the probability that the annual runoff in any year is greater than 3000 ha-m. What is the probability that the
annual runoff in any year will be between 1800 and 2800 ha-m?

𝑋−2390
𝑧= 567

3000−2390
(i) 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 3000 = 𝑃 𝑧 ≥ =𝑃 𝑧 ≥ 1.076 = 1 − 𝐹 1.076 = 1 − 0.859 = 0.141
567

1800−2390 2800−2390
(ii) 𝑃 1800 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 3000 = 𝑃 ≤𝑧≤ =𝑃 −1.0406 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 0.7231
567 567

= 𝐹 0.7231 − 𝐹 −1.0406 = 𝐹 0.7231 − 1 − 𝐹 1.0406 = 0.76493 − 1 − 0.85074 = 0.616

Binomial distribution

At any time a event may occur with a probability 𝑃

At any time a event may not occur with a probability 𝑄 = 1 − 𝑃

The probability that one event in two years is 𝑃𝑄 + 𝑄𝑃 = 2𝑃𝑄 = 2𝑃 1 − 𝑃 = 𝐶12 𝑃 1 − 𝑃

The probability that one event in three years is 𝑃𝑄𝑄 + 𝑄𝑃𝑄 + 𝑄𝑄𝑃 = 3𝑃𝑄2 = 3𝑃(1 − 𝑃)2 = 𝐶13 𝑃(1 − 𝑃)2

The probability that there will be exactly 𝑘 events in 𝑛 years 𝐶𝑘𝑛 𝑃𝑘 (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑘

In hydrology it is not important to know the probability that even will occur 𝑘 times in 𝑛 year. But we would
like to know the probability that an event will occur one or more in 𝑛 years.

𝑓𝑥 1 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 1 − 𝑓𝑥 𝑧𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

𝑓𝑥 1 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 1 − 𝐶0𝑛 𝑃0 1 − 𝑃 𝑛−0 =1− 1−𝑃 𝑛

Question: Analysis of data on maximum one day rainfall depth indicated that a depth of 280 mm had a return
period of 50 years. Determine the probability of a one day rainfall depth equal to or greater than 280 mm
occurring (a) once in 20 successive years, (b) twice in 15 successive years, and (c) at least once in 20
successive years.

1 1
Ans: Here 𝑃 = = 50 = 0.02
𝑇

a) 𝑓𝑥 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛 20 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 𝐶120 𝑃1 (1 − 𝑃)20−1 = 𝐶120 0.02 1 (1 − 0.05)20−1 = 0.272

b) 𝑓𝑥 𝑡𝑤𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛 15 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 𝐶215 𝑃2 (1 − 𝑃)15−2 = 𝐶215 0.02 2 (1 − 0.05)15−2 = 0.323

𝑛 20
c) 𝑓𝑥 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛 20𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = 1 − 1 − 𝑃 = 1 − 1 − 0.02 = 0.332
PLOTING POSITIONS

Plotting position refers to the probability value assigned to each piece of data to be plotted

𝑚 𝑚−𝑏
𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 = California’s formula 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 =
𝑛 𝑛 + 1 − 2𝑏

𝑚−1
𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 = Modified formula
𝑛 𝑏 = 0.5 For Hazen (1930) formula

𝑚 − 0.5 𝑏 = 0.3 For Chegodayev’s formula

𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 = Hazen (1930) formula
𝑛 𝑏=0 For Weibull formula

𝑚 − 0.3
𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 = Chegodayev’s formula
𝑛 + 0.4 𝑏 = 3/8 For Blom’s formula

𝑚 𝑏 = 1/3 For Tukey’s formula

𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 𝑥𝑚 = Weibull formula
𝑛+1
𝑏 = 0.44 For Gringorten’s formula
 PLOTING POSITIONS

Annual Annual Exceedance Return

Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Rank Probability Period
1970 520 1987 1020 1 0.05 20.00
1971 615 1988 900 2 0.10 10.00
1972 420 1976 705 3 0.15 6.67
1973 270 1971 615 4 0.20 5.00
1974 305 1977 600 5 0.25 4.00
1975 380 1980 560 6 0.30 3.33
1976 705 1979 550 7 0.35 2.86
1977 600 1970 520 8 0.40 2.50
1978 350 1982 520 9 0.45 2.22
1979 550 1983 435 10 0.50 2.00
1980 560 1986 430 11 0.55 1.82
1981 400 1972 420 12 0.60 1.67
1982 520 1981 400 13 0.65 1.54
1983 435 1984 395 14 0.70 1.43
1984 395 1975 380 15 0.75 1.33
1985 290 1978 350 16 0.80 1.25
1986 430 1974 305 17 0.85 1.18
1987 1020 1985 290 18 0.90 1.11
1988 900 1973 270 19 0.95 1.05
 PLOTING POSITIONS

Annual Annual Exceedance Return

Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Rank Probability Period
1970 520 1987 1020 1 0.05 20.00
1971 615 1988 900 2 0.10 10.00
1972 420 1976 705 3 0.15 6.67
1973 270 1971 615 4 0.20 5.00
1974 305 1977 600 5 0.25 4.00
1975 380 1980 560 6 0.30 3.33
1976 705 1979 550 7 0.35 2.86
1977 600 1970 520 8 0.40 2.50
1978 350 1982 520 9 0.45 2.22
1979 550 1983 435 10 0.50 2.00
1980 560 1986 430 11 0.55 1.82
1981 400 1972 420 12 0.60 1.67
1982 520 1981 400 13 0.65 1.54
1983 435 1984 395 14 0.70 1.43
1984 395 1975 380 15 0.75 1.33
1985 290 1978 350 16 0.80 1.25
1986 430 1974 305 17 0.85 1.18
1987 1020 1985 290 18 0.90 1.11
1988 900 1973 270 19 0.95 1.05
Depth area duration relationship
Depth Area Relationship

12
10

Depth in cm
8
6
4
𝑃 is the average depth in cm 2
𝑃𝑜 is the highest amount of rainfall in cm
𝐾 and 𝑛 are constant for a given region 0
0 500 1000 1500
Area in sq Km
Depth Area Duration Curve
Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) Relationship

Mass curve of rainfall

accumulated precipitation, mm
60

50

40
1st storm,
30
16 mm
2nd storm,
20
34 mm
10

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time,
Time inhour
min
Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) Relationship
Hyetograph is a plot of the accumulated precipitation against time, plotted in chronological
order

Hyetograph of a storm
Total depth = 10.6 cm
0.5 Duration = 48 hr
Intensity, cm/hr

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0–8 8 – 16 16 – 24 24 – 32 32 – 40 40 – 48
Time, hours
Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) Relationship
Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) Relationship
 In many design problems related to watershed such as runoff disposal, erosion control,
highway construction, culvert design, it is necessary to know the rainfall intensities of
different durations and different return periods.
 The curve that shows the inter-dependency between 𝑖 (cm/hr), D (hour) and T (year) is
called IDF curve.
 The relation can be expressed in general form as:

x 𝑖 – Intensity (cm/hr)
kT
i  D – Duration (hours)

D  a  n 𝒌, 𝒙, 𝒂, 𝒏 – are constants for a

given catchment
Maximum Intensity-Duration Relation

Maximum Intensity-Maximum Depth-Duration Relation

 Precipitation Precipitation
Duration Duration
Rank 5 10 15 20 30 60 T Rank 5 10 15 20 30 60 T
1 10.16 16.76 22.61 27.18 37.59 54.61 23.00 1 10.16 16.76 22.61 27.18 37.59 54.61 23.00
2 9.65 16.00 21.08 24.64 7.37 23.37 11.50 10.03 16.57 22.21 26.52 29.71 46.46 20.00
3 9.40 15.75 20.07 23.11 6.60 4.57 7.67 2 9.65 16.00 21.08 24.64 7.37 23.37 11.50
4 9.14 15.24 19.30 21.84 23.11 26.92 5.75 9.55 15.90 20.68 24.04 7.07 16.01 10.00
5 8.89 15.24 18.54 20.32 21.08 24.38 4.60 3 9.40 15.75 20.07 23.11 6.60 4.57 7.67
6 8.38 14.73 18.29 19.56 20.83 23.88 3.83 4 9.14 15.24 19.30 21.84 23.11 26.92 5.75
7 8.38 12.70 18.29 19.56 19.30 22.86 3.29 5 8.89 15.24 18.54 20.32 21.08 24.38 4.60
8 7.87 12.70 16.00 17.78 19.05 22.10 2.88 6 8.38 14.73 18.29 19.56 20.83 23.88 3.83
9 7.62 12.45 14.48 16.51 17.02 19.56 2.56 7 8.38 12.70 18.29 19.56 19.30 22.86 3.29
10 7.11 11.18 14.22 15.75 16.76 19.05 2.30 8 7.87 12.70 16.00 17.78 19.05 22.10 2.88
9 7.62 12.45 14.48 16.51 17.02 19.56 2.56
22 0.13 0.23 0.32 0.4 0.4 0.43 1.05 10 7.11 11.18 14.22 15.75 16.76 19.05 2.30

22 0.13 0.23 0.32 0.4 0.4 0.43 1.05

T 5 10 15 20 30 60
20 120.33 99.39 88.83 79.55 59.41 46.46
10 114.63 95.42 82.74 72.12 14.14 16.01
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP)

𝑃𝑀𝑃 = 𝑃 + 𝐾𝜎

𝑃 is the mean annual maximum precipitation

𝜎 is the standard deviation of the series

𝐾 is the frequency factor