Immaculate Conception Academy ⚈10 Grant Street, Greenhills, San Juan City ⚈HIGH SCHOOL DEPARTMENT
SHS Grade 12 Handout #2
Statistics and Probability Probability
Anchor Task. Suppose you toss a coin 5 times. What outcomes will you get? Then, toss 2 coins 5 times. What
outcomes do you get?
Write down your observations on the space provided below.
List down all the possible outcomes in tossing 2 coins.
S={ }
The sample space, usually denoted by S, is the set containing all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment while the event is a set of favorable outcomes. An event is a subset of the sample space.
The number of elements in the sample space S is denoted by n(S). T
herefore, if S contains all possible
outcomes in tossing two coins, n(S) = 4.
State one possible outcome in tossing two coins.
E={ }
If E = {HH} then n(E) = 1 .
Think about this: How is the number of occurrences of an event determined? How does knowledge of finding
the likelihood of an event help you in your daily life?
Probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event happening. The sample space is the collection of all
possible outcomes. Therefore, for a probability experiment, the sample space is the universal set.
We can obtain the probability of an event E occurring, i.e. P(E).
Probability of an Event, P(E)
n(E)
P (E) = n(S)
no. of possible outcomes of event E
P (E) = no. of possible outcomes in the sample space S
Therefore, P (E) = ________.
Example 1
A die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a number less than 5?
Solution:
Let S be the sample space.
Let E be the event that the number is less than 5.
Then,
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E = {5}
n(S) = 6
n(E) = 1
n(E)
Therefore, P{getting a number less than 5}= n(S) = 51 .
Practice Exercise 1
1) Determine the probability of obtaining the following in an experiment that consists of tossing two
coins.
a) 1 heads
b) 0 heads
2) A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers is 7?
Solution:
3) A die is rolled.
a) What is the probability of getting a 7?
b) What is the probability of getting a number less than 7?
The event of getting a 7 in rolling a die is an impossible event. On the other hand, the event of getting a
number less than 7 in rolling a die is a sure event.
Property 1. If P(E) i s the probability of an event happening, then 0 ≤ P (E) ≤ 1 .
Property 2. If P(E) is the probability of an event happening, then P (E) + P (not E) = 1 .
Example 2
Two cards are drawn simultaneously from a standard deck of playing cards. What is the probability that both
cards are not spades?
Guide Questions:
1) In how many ways can we draw 2 spades out of the 52 cards?
2) How many spades are there in a deck?
3) In how many ways can we draw 2 spades out of 13 spades?
4) What is the probability of getting 2 spades out of 52 cards?
5) What is the probability that both cards are not spades?
Example 3
A single card is drawn from a standard deck of playing cards. What is the probability that the card is either a
queen or a spade?
Guide Questions:
1) In how many ways can we draw a queen card out of the 52 cards?
2) In how many ways can we draw a queen out of 4 queens?
3) What is the probability of getting a queen out of 52 cards?
4) In how many ways can we get a spade out of 13 spades?
5) What is the probability of getting a spade out of 52 cards?
6) Is it possible that a queen is also a spade? How will that affect the result/total number of
probabilities?
7) What is the probability that the card is a queen or a spade?
Property 3. If P(E) is the probability of event E happening and P(F) is the probability of event F happening,
then
P (E ⋃ F ) = P (E) + P (F ) − P (E ⋂ F )
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Practice Exercise 2
A single card is drawn from a standard deck of playing cards. What is the probability that the card is
either an ace or a heart?
More Exercises!
1) A two-digit number is formed by using the digits 2, 3, and 5. Repetition of digits is allowed.
a) List the sample space.
b) Find the probability that the two-digit number formed
i) is prime,
ii) contains the digit ‘2’,
iii) is divisible by 4,
iv) is divisible by 13,
v) is not divisible by 13.
2) A letter is chosen at random from the word ‘CLEVER’. Find the probability that the letter chosen is
a) an ‘E’,
b) a ‘C’ or an ‘R’,
c) a ‘K’,
d) a consonant.
3) A fair tetrahedral die (4-sided die) and a fair 6-sided die are rolled simultaneously. the numbers on
the tetrahedral die are 1, 2, 5, and 6, while the numbers on the 6-sided die are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
a) List all the possible outcomes of the experiment.
b) Find the probability that
i) both dice show the same number,
ii) the number shown on the tetrahedral die is greater than the number shown on the 6-sided
die,
iv) the number shown on both dice are prime numbers.
4) A bag contains five cards and the cards are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. A card is drawn at random
from the bag and its number is noted. The card is then replaced and a second card is drawn at
random from the bag. Find the probability that
a) the number shown on the second card is greater than the number shown on the first card,
b) the sum of the two numbers is greater than 7,
c) the product of the two numbers shown on the cards is greater than 10.
Anchor Task
A single card is drawn from a standard deck of playing cards.
a) What is the probability that the card is either a queen or a king?
b) What is the probability that the card is a king or queen?
c) How did you come up with that answer?
d) Is there a card that is both a king and a queen?
Definition: Mutually Exclusive Events - events that cannot happen at the same time.
Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events
For mutually exclusive events E or F,
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Practice Exercise 3
A single card is drawn from a deck of cards. What is the probability that the card is either a
spade or a heart?
Solution:
Example 4 Two cards are drawn from a deck of cards. What is the probability that the cards are both aces?
Let S be the sample space that the first card is an ace. Then n (S) = ________ .
Let T be the sample space that the second card is an ace. Then n (T ) = ________ .
Let E be the event that the first card is an ace. Then n (E) = _________.
Let F |E be the event that the second card is an ace. Then n (E) = __________.
The probability that the first card is an ace is
n(E)
P (E) = n(S)
= ___________
The probability that the second card is an ace is
n(F |E)
P (F |E) = n(T ) = ___________
The probability that both cards are ace is
P (E and F ) = P (E) ·P (F |E)
P (E and F ) =
Property 4: Multiplication Rule. If P(E) is the probability of event E happening and P(F) is the probability of
event F happening, then
Definition: Conditional Probability P(F|E) - the probability that event F happens given that event E
happened.
Practice Exercise 4
Two cards are drawn from a deck of cards. What is the probability that the 2nd card is an ace
given that the 1st card is a heart?
Solution:
Definition: Independent Events - events that are not affected by other events
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Practice Exercise 5
Two cards are drawn from a deck of cards with replacement. What is the probability that an
ace and a king is drawn?
Solution:
Anchor Task
The table gives data on the type of car, grouped by petrol consumption, owned by 100 people.
Low Medium High Total
Male 12 33 7
Female 23 21 4
100
One person is selected at random.
L is the event “the person owns a low rated car”
F is the event “a female is chosen”
Find
P (L) =
P (F ∩L) =
P (F |L)
Baye’s Theorem
Example 5
Suppose a quality control officer is inspecting 3 bins containing 30 products each. The bins labeled A, B and
C contain 10, 5 and 15 defective products, respectively. One product was randomly chosen and was found to
be defective. Which box did the product most likely come from?
Solution
Let
A- product came from A
B-product came from B
C- product came from C
D-the product is defective
P (A|D) =
P (B|D) =
P (C|D) =
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Practice Exercise 6
Container A contains 12 chocolates and 8 candies, container B contains 5 chocolates and 15
candies. I was given 1 candy. What is the probability that it came from container A?
Solution:
References:
● Ronald E. Walpole, R. H. (2017). Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists Update Ninth Edition.
Singapore: Pearson Education South Asia Pte Ltd.
● Yeo, J., Seng, T. K., Yee, L. C., & Chow, I. (2016). New Syllabus Mathematics (7th ed). Singapore: Shinglee
Publishers Pte Ltd.
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