Midcap Monitor April 2019.Pd
Midcap Monitor April 2019.Pd
September 2018
April 2019
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NIFTY 50
BSE Midcap
BSE Sensex
BSE 100
BSE 200
BSE 500
BSE Smallcap
80
75
70
Apr-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19
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18.0
15.7
16.0
13.7
14.0
% change (MoM)
BSE Bankex
BSE Healthcare
BSE Realty
BSE Telecom
BSE IT
BSE Auto
BSE Midcap
BSE Smallcap
BSE FMCG
BSE Metals
BSE Sensex
BSE CapGoods
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April 2019
Institutional Activity
✓ Mar'19 has been one of the most attractive month in several years in terms of FII/FPI infusion into Indian Equities. FIIs bought INR 340bn worth of equities
in Mar. However, MFs sold modest INR 76bn worth of Indian Equities, their first monthly selling in last 2 years.
✓ While MFs total buying for FY19 remained at an impressive INR 879bn, FIIs/FPIs closed the year almost flat at INR 1bn worth of selling in Indian Equities.
(300)
(289)
(400)
Apr-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Jun-18
Jul-18
May-18
FPI/FII MF
Note: The figures are for Cash Market segment; Data as on 29th March 2019 Source: FPI/FII data from NSDL, MF data from SEBI
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% Change (MoM)
% Change (MoM)
- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
(15) (10) (5) -
India Bulls
31
Housing (8) Wipro
HPCL 27
(7) Tech Mahindra
Indusind Bank 21
(5) Cipla
SBI 19
(5) Zee Entertainment
Yes Bank 19
Bajaj Finance 14
(1) HUL
IOC 13
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% Change (MoM)
% Change (MoM)
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 (40) (30) (20) (10) -
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Room AC industry to post double-digit growth in FY20: Voltas Management to Motilal Oswal
Voltas expects volumes in Room Air Conditioners to register double digit growth in FY20. While the southern region has seen a
surge in demand, north region is yet to see any meaningful demand growth. Inventory levels have started to recede and primary Read More →
channel filling has increased. Additionally, the management expects UCP margins to settle around 11-12% on sustainable basis
Demand for white goods to rise on cash doles to farmers, tax incentive: Industry
The industry expects that sops to the middle class in the Budget, such as tax rebate for income up to Rs 5 lakh and cash doles for
farmers, would act as a catalyst to boost the demand. Read More →
Ample summer, stable rupee should ease margin pressure: Sunil A D'Souza, Whirlpool of India
Late onset of summer has resulted in slightly slower growth in the March quarter. However, the management believes a more
stable commodities and currencies and price hikes taken according to plan, should result in stable margins for the company. Read More →
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15-Mar-19 RBL Bank Vanguard Emerg. Mkts Stock Index NSE Buy 10,061 648 6,524
15-Mar-19 RBL Bank Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) Pte.Ltd. NSE Sell 2,749 648 1,781
14-Mar-19 Jubilant Food. Prudential ICICI AMC Ltd NSE Buy 820 1,312 1,076
14-Mar-19 Jubilant Food. Kotak Mahindra MF NSE Buy 800 1,312 1,050
14-Mar-19 Jubilant Food. Jubilant Consumer Pvt Ltd (Promoter) NSE Sell 3,959 1,312 5,196
Source: NSE/BSE
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April 2019
14-Mar-19 Laurus Labs Amansa Holdings Pvt Ltd BSE Buy 3,300 351 1,158
08-Mar-19 Laurus Labs Amansa Holdings Pvt Ltd BSE Buy 1,018 350 356
14-Mar-19 Laurus Labs FIL Capital Management (Mauritius) Ltd BSE Sell 6,119 351 2,149
11-Mar-19 Matrimony.com Nalanda India Equity Fund Ltd NSE Buy 2,111 510 1,076
11-Mar-19 Matrimony.com HDFC MF NSE Sell 1,825 510 931
11-Mar-19 Matrimony.com HDFC MF NSE Sell 189 510 96
01-Mar-19 Hindustan Foods Jwalamukhi Investment Holdings BSE Buy 1,340 360 482
01-Mar-19 Hindustan Foods Westbridge AIF I BSE Buy 217 360 78
01-Mar-19 Hindustan Foods Sixth Sense India Opportunities-I BSE Sell 1,500 360 540
Source: NSE/BSE
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April 2019
01-Mar-19 AAVAS Financiers Matthews India Fund BSE Buy 405 1,070 433
01-Mar-19 AAVAS Financiers Amundi Funds SBI FM Equity India BSE Sell 448 1,070 479
11-Mar-19 Lemon Tree Hotel Zaaba Pan Asia Master Fund NSE Buy 5,216 85 443
11-Mar-19 Lemon Tree Hotel Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte NSE Sell 5,284 84 445
25-Mar-19 Security & Intel Steinberg India Emerging Opport. Fund Ltd NSE Buy 525 830 436
25-Mar-19 Security & Intel Vocational Skills Council India Pvt Ltd NSE Sell 590 830 490
06-Mar-19 Lux Industries Abakkus Growth Fund - 1 (Sunil Singhania) NSE Buy 300 1,228 368
06-Mar-19 Lux Industries Monet Securities Pvt Ltd NSE Sell 246 1,230 303
06-Mar-19 Eveready Inds. India Opportunities Growth Fund Ltd NSE Buy 700 200 140
06-Mar-19 Eveready Inds. OHM Enterprises NSE Buy 600 200 120
06-Mar-19 Eveready Inds. OHM Juniper Longterm Fund Ltd NSE Buy 500 200 100
06-Mar-19 Eveready Inds. DSP Small Cap Fund NSE Sell 2,174 200 435
Source: NSE/BSE
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
08-Mar-19 The Anup Engi. Avadh Material And Equip. Suppliers NSE Buy 139 548 76
08-Mar-19 Balaji Telefilms Shobha Ravi Kapoor BSE Buy 703 87 61
08-Mar-19 The Anup Engi. Avadh Material And Equip. Suppliers BSE Buy 60 557 33
20-Mar-19 Jubilant Life Jubilant Employees Welfare Trust NSE Sell 3,475 784 2,725
20-Mar-19 Ramkrishna Forg. Chartered Finance & Leasi Ng Ltd NSE Sell 165 526 87
Source: NSE/BSE
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
Management Talks
MOFSL VIEWS HDFC (Buy, TP INR2,300): NHB proposal will have no impact on HDFC operations; Keki Mistry,
Vice Chairman
✓ Do not believe that what NHB has proposed will make any difference whatsoever to company's operations over the
next five to seven years or probably even more than that.
✓ Company's tier-1 capital stands at 17.2% and company has a very low level of tie-2 capital of only 1.7%, giving a
total capital adequacy of 18.9%. The ability to increase the tier-2 capital is very high because tier-2 capital can be
BUY 50% of tier-1 capital.
✓ For a couple of months, everything in the market sort of slowed down, credit lines froze. Fortunately, all the com-
mercial paper, the short-term borrowings that the NBFCs had done largely from MFs, all got paid off on time.
✓ Only those NBFCs which carry a very high leverage will get impacted by what NHB has said.
✓ Not seeing any real consolidation happening (in the sector). But really, the big players, the four or five big housing
finance companies constitute a very significant portion of the total housing finance business in the country.
Read More →
Titan (Buy, TP INR1,180): Main Goal is to raise the top line, going forward 15-20% margins
should be maintained, S Subramaniam, CFO
✓ The jewellery industry is facing issues due to high gold prices, negative consumer sentiments since last 1-2 years.
✓ However wedding seasons which contribute to 60% demand in the country is inelastic to that. Customers tend to
delay the purchase of jewellery as gold prices are high, hence there could be a lag in purchase. Titan’s market
BUY share gain trend is continuing. The tailwinds of regulatory intervention are helping us.
✓ We will just continue to do what we have to do, and 2013 saw a double digit growth, post that gold prices have
been volatile. We realised if we wish to see a CAGR of 15-20%, we need to be aggressive in network rollout, and
we need to increase the market share.
✓ We target to get ~10% market share, with a CAGR of 15-20%, where the industry stands at 5-6%, what we actually
achieve depends upon the execution.
Read More →
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
Management Talks
MOFSL VIEWS HDFC Life (Buy, TP INR475): Our focus is on new customers but with an eye on back book; Vibha
Padalkar, CEO
✓ The SEBI requirement is that post listing, within a period of three years, a company has to reach a minimum public
shareholding of 25% and before the OFS opened yesterday, company was at 19.3%. Had to cover just about 6% --
5.7%.
✓ The penetration of insurance in India vis-a-vis China is inadequate. Typically for top companies in China, term or
BUY pure protection products account for 50% of their sales. India is just at the beginning. Company is the market
leaders in selling protection and it is at an APE of 16.6%.
✓ If one were to look at the number of policies, it is a very robust growth of more than 20% and that will continue.
8.5% of the new policies that company has sold have come from upselling to credit protect customers. The percent-
age of those who have completed and repaid their loans to NBFCs or banks is steadily trending upwards.
✓ Company's proprietary channels continue to grow and as a percentage of total business it has grown to 28% from
around 20% Read More →
Tech Mahindra (Buy, TP INR940): We will pay shareholders via buybacks or dividends; not hold
excess cash; Manoj Bhat, Deputy CFO
✓ Do not think USDINR will have major impact looking at the full year average. Quarter-on-quarter the impact will be
much more severe but on a full-year basis, it might not be a large impact.
✓ Typically in the IT industry, contracts are on a full-risk basis. Company hedges for up to two years. At any given
BUY ✓
point, have about $1.5 to 1.6 billion in hedges and that helps manage volatility over a period of time.
Would like to do this (buyback) on a consistent basis going forward and reward shareholders both through buybacks
and dividends. Will not hold excess cash in the company. Will follow both a buyback plus a dividend kind of
structure going into the future.
✓ Increasingly digital is a larger proportion of revenues for everyone and digital is growing at 30% plus for most of
the industry. Digital today is about 33% of revenues for company
Read More →
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
Management Talks
MOFSL VIEWS Federal Bank (Buy, TP INR115): FY20 And Beyond, We Will Look At Niches For Expansion; Shyam
Srinivasan, MD & CEO
✓ Both credit and deposit growth for the bank over last many quarters has been well into the 20s. Both low cost and
the overall deposit growth has been quite good. Company is growing probably 2-2.5x the average of market growth.
✓ Over the last 10-12 quarters, credit growth has been closer to 24-25%. Bank is seeing that momentum continue in
particular in retail. Mid-market growth is very strong and will keep that going. Core corporate is growing very well.
BUY Bank has started toning down certain areas like NBFC or bulk lending. The blended growth rate of 20% plus is very
possible. Areas like retail, mid-market the part of corporate that bank wants to scale up are all growing at 24-25%.
✓ Retail growth over the last three-four quarters has been north of 30% and bank sees the new mix is good corporate
and mid-market growth and commercial banking growth -- all in the mid 20s. Retail probably is in the higher end of
the 20s or even 30s. The blended growth for the portfolio because of some parts, will come down to 20-22%.
Read More →
Read More →
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
Management Talks
MOFSL VIEWS DB CORP (Buy, TP INR215): Very positive and bullish for Q1, Q2 FY20, Girsih Agarwal, Non-
ex-ecutive Director
✓ The 25% hike in the ad-prints by the government is a measure which is always welcomed; it happens once is every
three years. Impact is seen overall, as IPL is upcoming, elections are coming, the summer season begins, admis-
sions in education industry begins; thus overall very positive.
With current single digit growth we look forward to double digit growths going forward. Q3 single digit % was due
BUY
✓
to the festive season of Diwali, Q4 should be slightly lower than that, going forward Q1 should be able to reach
double digits %.
✓ News print prices have cooled off. This is very material considering the prices have come to 520-530USD from
730-750USD, the Q1 Will pick this and impact would be seen Q2FY20 onwards. As in Q4 we use inventory pur-
chased at old costs.
Read More →
✓ We are very very bullish and positive on Q1, Q2FY20.
Blue Star (Neutral, TP INR620): Revenue growth should not be a problem, but the margins would
be better than Q3, B Thiagarajan, Executive Director
✓ The summer has been late by two weeks, but weather forecasts indicate a reasonably good summer. This year was
full of headwinds, however going forward, for FY20 we are looking for a 15% growth and planning to improve the
market share by 15-20%.
✓ Last summer all of us prepared for a 25% growth which did not happen, in the process we carried the inventory for
the entire calendar year. January was a fair month with around 45 days of inventory, in march we have built
inventory of 60 days which is required in this business, it will taper in July and rebuild during festive season.
Neutral ✓ Ad-Expense budget for FY20 is at Rs 55Cr vis-à-vis Rs 45Cr of last year, 70-75% of this should be consumed during
summer, if that does not happen it will be postponed to the festive season, but fixed portion would be incurred.
✓ Going forward, we have 75 new models, in the high end, 5 star, window AC and Air coolers segment, with innova-
tion and new features. Growth as far as region is concerned should primarily come from Tier 3, 4, 5.We have
increased our market share from 12.8 to 13.5 currently, and aim to reach 15% by FY21.
Read More →
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
Management Talks
MOFSL VIEWS Thomas Cook India : Operating Airlines to be tough if structural changes not made,
Madhavan Menon, Chairman
✓ From an inbound point of view, current scenario of high airfares is a temporary glitch. There's at least three to six
months' forward planning in the inbound business. But any change or cancellation now is causing inconvenience
No
and is not helping.
✓ Plus, there is a lot of nervousness about Jet Airways because a lot of people take it from overseas into India. And
view ✓
it was considered a premium product to travel. So yes, it's a bumpy ride for the next few weeks.
We are all focused on booking people on alternate flights. As far as the domestic holiday business is concerned,
a lot of these bookings and the inventory were put in place before the crisis started. So, I don't think it has
affected us immediately.
✓ I have been in the forex business for 19 years. We have grown at a CAGR of 8-9% and will continue to grow. We
have differentiated ourselves through our products. When I came to this company we used to sell just cash.
Today, we sell cash, we give prepaid cards, and we even make remittances.
Read More →
Future Group: Regarding 7-Eleven | Plan To Build A Billion-Dollar Business In 7-8 Years; Kishore
Biyani, Founder & CEO
No ✓ Have got into a franchise agreement with 7-Eleven and plan to open first store in Mumbai.
view
✓ It is a 30-year contract in which company is building a joint business plan. These are convenience stores which
have categories like sipping, munching, confectionary, fresh food and café in some of the stores.
✓ You can get your morning breakfast to lunches to dinners to takeaways to 24-hour operational stores. Believe
modern urban life today India needs stores like this. The concentration will be only in urban centres.
✓ The business plan is within seven to eight years, company has to build a business of over billion dollar and the
royalty which company pays is towards the brand which is used and towards the equipment which they provide
company with.
Read More →
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Midcap Monitor
April 2019
Management Talks
MOFSL VIEWS Essel Propack : Pharma Is A Great Opportunity to Grow In India; Ashok Goel, VC and MD
✓ Absolutely certain that company will grow at least 12% if not 15% top line and a little better performance on the
bottom line.
No ✓ Non-oral care this year has been growing nicely across all geographies, be it Europe, China or America. India was a
little soft because of various regulatory stuff, but hope India will start to bounce back in coming months.
view ✓ Have grown overall oral care this year about a percentage point. Revenue share between oral and non-oral until last
year was 41 per cent in favour of non-oral care. This year, it is 42 per cent and target obviously is 50 per cent and
expect this to continue to grow in that direction.
✓ Europe is one geography where company ought to grow. All fixed costs are already sitting there and therefore it is
for company to now reap the benefits and capabilities are already built. Read More →
GNA Axles : Impact of slow auto sales on growth of GNA Axles, Ranbir Singh, Presi-dent &
CEO
✓ Q3 numbers were very good on the back of volume growth (CV &Tractors) but unfortunately Jan onwards the
overall production & volumes have dropped 20-25%. However for GNA, 50% dependence has been on exports to
No ✓
North America, Asia, & South America, hence Top Line is not affected.
No doubt in North America Class 8,9 category (Heavy Segment) has been dropping, but we are in other segments
view also. Overall increase in North America's sales is over 60% YoY, still we are overbooked and we are compensating
loss in sales in domestic markets through exports.
✓ (Loss of sales) In value terms, within the domestic market is over 20% in Q4, however top line is maintained as
much as the Q3, as exports have the gap covered.
✓ Overall growth will be over 35% for sales, over 900 Cr, planning to grow 15% (Conservatively), after seeing the
total scenario of the domestic market. No Agenda to reduce capacity enhancements, we are enhancing our capaci-
ties by 25%.
Read More →
30
Siddhartha Khemka
Head - Retail Research
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alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this
document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into
account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed
therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any
person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The
securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives
shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees
from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be
suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400
064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: [email protected], Contact No.:022-38281085.
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. IRDA Corporate Agent - CA0541. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd.
(MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
* Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.