onni-— 1 PSobhambty — —_ a |. Seta 2: Denn Diog dams 3+ Algetsva ob Setar A. PZohALI UY 5. PZohamiby BUOMA 6: Jheayxe mA ™ psobabit!d 7 Pazeblema en pacha 9 8: Codivoncd psobasiGhy a.Condilioned paoe" paope aes, 16. PaoblemArA OM Cohort Pants _ nde penae nb EventA 12 Dota pgermabi bby 13 pyoblemsz™ sa) proba 9 la Bayes BJhessew 15 Appicohom oh Bayes arwore~11 Algebra of Sets and Counting Methods The algebra of sets and counting methods are useful in understanding the basic concepts of probability. These concepts are briefly reviewed from the point of view of probability. Sets and Elements of sets: The fundamental concept in the study of the probability is the set. A set is a well defined collection of objects and denoted by upper case English letters. The objects in a set are known as elements and denoted by lower case letters. A set can be written in two ways. Firstly, if the set has a finite number of elements, we may list the elements, separated by commas and enclosed in brackets. For example, a set A with elements 1, 2, 3, 4,5 and 6, it may be written as A= {1,2,3,4,5, 6} Secondly, the set may be described by a statement or a rule, Then A may be written as A= {x [x isa natural number less than or equal to 6} If x is an element of the set A, we write x € A. If x is not a element of the set A, then we write x ¢ A. Equal Sets: Two sets A and B are said to be equal or identical if they have exactly the same elements and we write as A = B Subset: If every element of the set A belong to the set B, i.e.,ifx€ A => xB, then we say that A is a subset of B and we write A & B (Ais contained in B) or B 2 A(B contians A). If A © B and B € A, then A = B.Null set: A null or an empty set is one which does not contain any element at all and denoted by @. Note: 1. Every set is a subset it self 2. An empty set is a subset of every set. 3. Aset containing only one elements is conceptually different from the element itself . 4. In all applications of set theory, especially in probability theory, we shall have a fixed set S (say), given in advance and we shall be concerned only with subsets of S. This set is referred to universal set. 1) Union or sum: AUB ={x|x€A or x€ B} UA ={x| x€ A; for at least one i = 1,2,...,n} = 2) Intersection or Product: ANB = {x| x€A and x € B} (\4. = (|x 4, for alli = 1,2,...,n} i lf AN B = @, then we say that A and B are disjoint sets. 3) Relative Difference: A— B = {x| x€A and x ¢ B} 4) Complement: A = S—A Algebra of Sets: If A, B and C are subsets of a universal set S, then the following laws hold: Commutative laws: AUB =BUA, ANB=BNA Associative laws: (AUB) UC = AU(BUC),(ANB)NC=AN(BNC)Distributive laws: AN(BUC) =(ANB)U(ANC),AU(BNC) = (AUB) N(ANC) Complementary laws: AUA=S,ANA=0,AUS=S,ANS=A Difference laws: A—B = ANB = A— (ANB) = (AUB) —B, A-(B-C)=(A-B)u(A-C),(AUB)-C =(A-C)U(B-C), (ANB) U(A-B) =A, (ANB)N(A-B) = De —Morgan’s laws: AUB=AnB,ANB=AuB U (1A ana Aa “Ua it Involution law: (A) = A idempotent law: AUA=A,ANA=A1.2 Basic Concepts in Probability Introduction to uncertainty Every day we have been coming across statements like the ones mentioned below: . Probably it will rain tonight. . Itis quiet likely that there will be a good yield of paddy this year. . Probably | will get a first class in the examination. . India might win the cricket series against Australia and so on. PwWwNeR In all the above statements some element of uncertainty or chance is involved. A numerical measure of uncertainty is provided by a very important branch of statistics known as Theory of Probability. In the words of Prof. Ya-Lin-Chou: Statistics is the science of decision making with calculated risks in the face of uncertainty. History of Probability The history of probability suggests that its theory developed with the study of games of chance, such as rolling of dice, drawing a card from a pack of cards, etc. Two French gamblers had once decided that any one person who will first get a ‘particular point’ will win the game. If the game is stopped before reaching that point, the question is how to share the stake. This and similar other problems were then posed by the great French mathematician Blaise Pascal, who after consulting another great French mathematician Pierre de Fermat, gave the solution of the problems and then laid down a strong foundation of probability. Later on, another French mathematician, Laplace, improved the definition of probability.Coins, Dice and Playing Cards: The basic concepts in probability are better explained using coins, dice and playing cards. The knowledge of these is very much useful in solving problems in probability. Coin: A coin is round in shape and it has two sides. One side is known as head (H) and the other is known as tail (T). When a coin is tossed, the side on the top is known as the result of the toss. Die: A die is cube in shape in which length, breadth and height are equal. It has six faces which have same area and numbered from 1 to 6. The plural of die is dice. When a die is thrown, the number on the top face is the result of the throw. Pack of Cards: A pack of cards 52 cards. It is divided into four suits called spades, clubs, hearts and diamonds. Spades and clubs are black; hearts and diamonds are red in colour. Each suit consists of 13 cards, of which nine cards are numbered from 2 to 10, an ace, jack, queen and king. We shuffle the cards and then take a card from the top which is the result of selecting a card. Basic Concepts in Probability The following basic concepts are very important in understanding the definitions of the probability: Experiment: The process of making an observation or measurement and observation about a phenomenon is known as an experiment. Examplei: Sitting in the balcony of the house and watching the movement of clouds in the sky is an experiment. Example2: For given values of pressure (P), measuring the corresponding values of volume (V) of a gas and observing that P - V = k(constant) is an experiment. The experiments are of two types:Deterministic experiment: If an experiment produces the same result when it is conducted several times under identical conditions, then the experiment is known as determinant experiment. All the experiments in physical and engineering sciences are deterministic. Random Experiment: If an experiment produces different results even though it is conducted several times under identical conditions, then the experiment is known as random experiment. All the experiments in social sciences are random. Trial: Conducting a random experiment once is known as a trial. Outcome: A result of a random experiment in a trial is known as an outcome. Outcomes are denoted by lowercase letters a, b,c, d,e, ...- Equally Likely Outcomes: Outcomes of a random experiment are said to be equally likely if all have the same chance of occurrence. Getting a H and T ina balanced coin are equally likely. The outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 are equally likely if the die is a cube. Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as a sample space and denoted by S. Event: A subset of the sample space is known as an event. The events are denoted by uppercase letters A, B,C etc. Happening of an event: We say that an event happens (or occurs) if any one outcome in it happens (or occurs). Elementary Event: A singleton set consisting an outcome of a random experiment is known as an elementary event. Favorable outcomes: The outcomes in an event are known as favorable outcomes or cases of that event. Impossible Event: An event with no outcome in it is known as impossible event and is denoted by @.Certain or Sure Event: An event consisting of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as certain or sure event and it is same as the sample space. Exhaustive Events: The events in a sample space are said to be exhaustive if their union is equal to the sample space. The events Aj, Ao, ..., Ay in S are said to be exhaustive if Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more events in the sample space are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of one of them precludes the happening of the others. Mathematically two events A and B in S are said to be mutually exclusive if AN B = @. Example3: Consider a random experiment of tossing a coin. The possible outcomes are H and T. Thus, the sample space is given by S = {H,T} and n(S) = 2 where n(S) is the total number of outcomes in S. Example 4: Consider a random experiment of tossing two coins (or two tosses of a coin). The sample space is given by S = {H, T} x {H, T} = (HH, HT, TH, TT} and Mathematical (or classical or A priori) defi ition of probability Let S be a sample space associated with a random experiment. Let A be an event in S. We make the following assumptions on S: (i) Itis discrete and finite (ii) | The outcomes in it are equally likely Then the probability of happening (or occurrence) of the event A is defined by P(A) = Number of outcomes in A _ n(A) Number of outcomes ins n(S)PBOLA LY AUA™: it Oocprle) P (S) = P(SU ¢) => P(S) = P(S) +P (#) (Axiom 3) = P(p) =0 Theorem 2: Probability of the complementary event A of A is given by P(A) =1-P(A). Proof: Since A and A are mutually exclusive events in S, AUA=S = P(AU A) = P(S) = P(A) + P(A) = 1 (Axioms 2 and 3) = P(A) =1-P(A)Corollary 1: 0 < P(A) <1 Proof: We have P(A) = 1— P(A) < 1(~ P(A) =0, by Axiom 1) Further, P(A) > 0 (by Axiom 1). Therefore, 0 < P(A) <1 Corollary 2: P(p) = 0 Proof: Since @ = 5 ,P(p) = P(S) = P(g) =0 Theorem 3: For any two events A and B, we have — P(S) = 1-1 = 0 (by Axiom 2) (i) P(ANB) = P(B) — P(ANB) (ii) P(A B) = P(A) — P(AN B) Proof: (i) From the Venn diagram, we have, B=(AnB)uU(AnB), where (A B) and (AN B) are mutually exclusive events. Hence by Axiom 3, P(B) = P(ANB) + P(ANB) =P (ANB) = P(B) — P(ANB) (ii) Similarly, we have, A=(ANB)U(ANB), where (4 B) and (An B) are mutually exclusive events. Hence by Axiom 3 P(A) = P(ANB) + P(ANB) = P(AN B) = P(A) — P(ANB)Theorem 4: If Bc A, then (i) P(AnB) = P(A) - P(B) (ii) P(B) < P(A) Proof: (i) If BCA, then B and A 0B are mutually exclusive events and A=BUu(ANB) = P(A) = P(B) + P(AN B) (Axiom 3) = P(ANB) = P(A) — P(B) (ii) We have P(A n B) > 0 (Axiom 1). Hence P(A) — P(B) > 0 > P(B) < P(A). Thus, B c A = P(B) < P(A)._A7theorem 5: Addition Theorem of Probability for Two Events: Let A and B be any two events in S. Then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) — P(ANB) Proof: From Venn diagram, we have AUB=Au(AnB) where A and An B are mutually exclusive events in S. + P(AUB) = P(A) + P(A B) (Axiom 3) = P(A) + P(B) — P(A NB) (From Theorem 3) Thus, P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) — P(ANB). Note: 1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events then A 0 B = @ and hence P(ANB) = P(g) = 0. Thus, if A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B). G - The addition theorem of probability for three events is given by P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) — P(AN B) — P(ANC) — P(BNC) + P(ANBNC) This can be proved first by taking A U B as one event and C as second event and repeated application of Theorem 5 P(AUBUC) = A (AUB) UC) = P(AUB) + P(C) — (AUB) NO) = P(AUB) + P(C) - A (ANC) u(BNC)) P(A) + P(B) — P(AN B) + P(C) — P(ANC) — P(BNC) + RANBNGO P(A) + P(B) + P(C) — P(AN B) — P(ANC) — P(BNC) + RANBNGOA yag Coboim& 12 val MONE Ke) Nye 040 bo ge oles G& axa Sey (Coc mae puos” Ob having 2 oo) Rola eo) amas Wien Y ymulkpe ok amy 208 3? 8. w¢s) =! lel Wigs ee NEI OGODe ott wmulhply of 2 = f 2 Gee 29 le B be Tre Even who ne Ae sud pla of 3= § 34/5) j2 % NAT $ 6124 Clee p(ay= 2 ) P(A0®? -e RG wc0hiuch ciua 2 6S 5 Place) = pcar+ p(B) — PCAI%) = § te jt Te a ee 72 s@a Casa U dsam Aon a Well Shwhtled sec © net ne Pars That it YY eited Spada or ai So Yee Ve, CO on S Pal, Ale 13 [4 Yor Swe ) Ws) = Sr ler Awe Re Event Whone Cax~dk ae Spades W(A)= WS) fer Pp, Gee SNe VAC De Corels at Alek NMCA)= 4 Here (A nB)) = |Raa. 2 5a Bz 7 FCP) Sy PC AAR) = wv - 2 P( serge cites Wok oF Age ) T( Avg) = pray + PUD — 7°) Oe iG ty -6B 4 #- § =2-7 er eeeGAIE- 2010 =" = B) 3 audenhs ANnbie 2ac i Dorming Dace ee | pee) as aid Save poo oF wim? 97 end €ath Y Fwile utely OL aa > uy Weer C The Rug he PIove's! i os, CCS? So JO dE Ye AUOROC = S AnBAC=z > PCALRCOY = POS) pcAyt PUA) + RO) = Cun Boed- 2s) POA)= 2 PO Gb) = 2° Ga)2 pret 276 + eye | & Pe) =) Oia ce rle a me =) pies = s 5 PCB ow c) ~ PCBLL) = pl p+ Pc) - Fo) vw 30% O S Ae@ pied=4 , Pl B=— PCAC) = + hen find S C GYP(ACA) @ P(A 99) p (AB ) PCAC AR) > PCa oR) } PA) ay Ga RB Oiuemn POAD = 2 y Pom=t Plara)= & OP(Acr) = pcpy+Pla)— P(ROB) Bo Ss | =e 2D Pag = pcay— plard) = ® p(arg d= pCa) - PCPOR) = ® pcaoans) = p( @osx) ~ 1— p(acry)® P(r) = 1 — Pl Aang) = @ COA fi. 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ROC % Base seo PC BEN) P( aL PCBVONAY A PCR) _ PL as) oc aay | a P(e) ia P(AOD + plANLD ee ee PC®) P(ArB) P(AQXL) Bata P(4 Pa) (AOR) 9 (ang-a= Pa) + PU Ya) { PCB). PB) 5 rs) @ bk ACH Then cy any €unL ACB=S Anc C RNC — =) pPlANLDZ p(ZaO— = ANC => P(AMD pl Bat) ) ( 26) a Wier XY > ere PS) A GB) aiken) C PCZ)E PC BD©) ay Anmee Men A\ _ pane) a a) PCR) OE - oO ply) y+ Aapi= > p( 220 Mm Y)=- My PCB_)=0PDO Lem, ™ Comndiwoned paobasiily a a Ou rare 3, p= 4 ore r(ANB) = + men Sind Ore, @rl ry Ole <) $70) OC 50) SY. 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RCEDTT & rceiy rl %/e) =)Poet, OW (2 (p= 2 Cu Ww Mmutuatly rr dagive amid EK HEA Gere TyenLA WS : - io OW Eine; = o> a 6) AoOe2OCE30 --- VEn=S 7 len AL anomes Event anita U Roles (eek (ey Na S pe = ANS =A Sa AB=AN On »~-) = an(e:VO e2VU --vé™» ) = @ae)VQrPEdDv- were) “ A =O US eG ~” = P(AY2 E Prange) Oo fe)consisen P( 2) = P(AOE’) — a PCE’) P(ANET) = 3) 77 AED = pce) | (2 =) Sb @L.@® merce prar= € pce) r(%.) _. iz Ei) mae GC) CmoSia r > 7 p(An& ) ae PIA? Sou @2@ roy. MEINE ) A Oe A {3 (MCSD) i ee =) ’ Hecte JeornAnp&Cahaw ob Bayes wor aaa @amo socksy maine A pao 40s of cub PA ond ae ook pt - ag oe yoavees! by © “ es paoded Prodce 60% oF items iw tooo F oe dsechive - oma cite 1? — we, avi ty BY te KOK pays our ob wectomnly S38 ' YU eseckve | Lstnat YT ne a A Bgrteu =SPs aise by aes | \ we Hp YTS De fede aole Gole ~ _ 40 p< & a 10> “ _ me + \ . GS Hy) Ze r(%>)-= SZ UA) = 260 No ee gueor™m Pen = pce? pl, ) + p83) WHPOla> » 7 0:00 ¢ ee 7O> VR 10028 By Gad PBosasGW 4No AV ene rn) = <5 \ BY Bay goa? rey. 8 P( Pia) ’ POR 12a) ar % 48 : x ee isp Bs iG 4) a PCB) + PU) = \\—Example 1: In a bolt factory machines A, B, C manufacutre respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their output 5,4, 2 percent are known to be defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by - (i) Machine A. a R c (ii) | Machine B or C l ARiC awe Wsee Maclivy [ / ler D> QPL DF secty ve Ba) 350 4 rd zs E oy Play- — io 7 PCR) = \ ae 24, BGG) —_ Dy2 2 ie es Fee) ta poe e 10d / a No BY Tobe psor” PIY= p(Ad PlMypa)+ Pl) pl Pin) B 126G) ae)GYVBy Rey Toro = OCD EY PCD) = 24 Sl. \Sicee Tes = eet b4g MAY _ 12s y Bag - NO Reae) = P( &e - PCB) + PCS) P (2) rex Pfs) Now ee i mB) y — —— = — 34s - pc Mp) = = Wey a. UOT SO] 2 220 co SUF Sa a eC A+ RD + PCS) = |Example 4: The contents of urns J, II and III are respectively as follows: 1 white, 2 black and 3 red balls, 2 white, 1 black and 1 red balls, and 4 white, 5 black and 3 red balls. One urn is chosen at random and two balls drawn. They happen to be white and red. What is the probability that they came from urns I, II, 111? wh , od MAr=4 PIRI=Z nlye4 a lek 1D Ug Pe aya TRO PAA > . . ce Gwnik, of eS: de § MeS- ta *dO ] + “A > Geq_ . 6 2c,x'! av a) = fined edna i Gor rey. tat Myon nea GG v a PC IP) — play pl Dia» +7IR) pl 2) APLED PCDIC) “4+ 45) 440%moo mG) ~ p(n) ee S ng ny 1/4 oN P(e) Pld r(By = Me rir) PM) = Iw Ln AS on = 3 ns TY PM(Sy2 PEO rl) P Co? ee) coe Roe Cl ae 108) POA + BOB) ICD) © 3a 4 4 ee mee ne me a® Po Contaima tuornik, 2 Peo, 30%" Lally, Box 2 Conta pest, 3veet, 1, Box & Covers SUK, 1SCIZ zoe ore mandy iy ayers SIO ecole wenden l4 eee ai poor" ieee baw i dso Sxom Rok? & Dea wm EE aBiC de Rae SOWA Ror T-A- 109, 2R,3% Box ti -B- 20) sk 7 Us; Bente fo ie age”) lem 2 be PO Deel oe 2 7 Pe GG) ai PlAy= 4 , plas & 2c\ a | _ iC? aan rm S)-= 3e) - = Gey era rP/&#y- he = + (>) CG a GC ee veHere BY THY pace WwW P(a)- P(A PCR/a) + PCB) M4le) 4 PD PCR) = 3(4)4+ 3G)1t 2%) | nie) 2) 3 Now By Reve Jneowt™) PCR) PC Rie) Rey eae (QD PRD |e