UNIT 3

DISASTER IMPACTS
INTRODUCTION

Appropriate disaster response depends on the assessment of the impact that helps senior
management of the private and public institutions to make informed choices. The possible
immediate impacts of a disaster are:

LOSS OF LIFE

In the last two decades of the last century, more than half a million people were killed due to four
natural disasters alone: floods, cyclones, earthquakes and droughts. Human loss is the most
widely used indicator of the extent of a high impact disaster like flood, earthquake, tsunami,
cyclone and civil war. This, however, reveals the tip of the iceberg of human suffering due to
disaster: for every one person killed, 3,000 people are exposed to the hazards of natural disasters.
In case of slow impact disasters like drought, HIV/AIDS, arsenic contamination in drinking
water, loss of life alone cannot be the indicator of the extent of the impact: number of people
affected and the geographical spread are the better indicators of impact.

LIVESTOCK LOSS

In case of a severe disaster, livestock losses can reduce the income and food security of people
primarily dependent on livestock, for up to five years till stocks and herds are rebuilt. Disaster
can threaten livestock in a given region in case of both slow and rapid onset of disaster.
Persistent drought is possibly the most serious type of disaster: a serious drought in the Horn of
Africa in 2000 caused death of more than 70% of livestock in some countries. In states, like
Gujarat and western Rajasthan, in case of drought, the need of the poor cattle owner is not cash
for work but fodder, which needs to be transported from a distance and hence this becomes
beyond their capacity to access.

LOSS OF HABITATION

Loss of habitation is one of the major problems of the disaster-affected people after high onset
disasters, like flood, cyclone, earthquake and tsunami. The Orissa Super Cyclone of October 26,
2000 left no mud and thatch house standing along the coast from Astarang in Puri to Paradip port
in Kendrapara district. The Gujarat earthquake of January 26, 2001 fully damaged more than
100,000 houses in Kutch district alone. The Indian Ocean tsunami on December 26, 2004
destroyed completely countless number of houses across the affected countries in Asia, including
India. The Bihar flood of August 2008 destroyed more than 300,000 houses. The hurricane
Katrina in USA left behind more than 40,000 completely damaged houses.
AGRICULTURAL LOSS

In 2007, agriculture accounted globally for employment to one-third of the total workforce of the
world. In the same year, in India, agriculture contributed to almost 16.6% of the GDP and
provided employment to 52% of the total workforce in the country. However, agriculture is
heavily dependent on weather, climate, availability of water, distribution of the annual rainfall,
and hence, is adversely affected by hydro meteorological disasters, in particular. As an example,
in the Bihar flood of August 2008, 840,000 acres of standing crop was completely damaged.
Before 2005, disaster relief and response in the country was the responsibility of the Department
of Agriculture, Government of India. This was possibly because the impact of disasters was
assessed by the loss of agriculture, apart from human loss.

LIVELIHOOD LOSS

It has been mentioned earlier that 52% of the total workforce of India is dependent on
agricultural activities. Any serious disruption of agricultural practices due to disaster is bound to
adversely impact the livelihood of the majority of the workforce in the country. All natural
disasters, therefore, shrink the livelihood opportunity, moreso of the poor in the unorganized
sector. For this reason, the think tank of the British Government agency for International
Development (DFID) in its development policy recognized the importance of looking for
livelihood options for the poor, who are not dependent on the vagaries of weather. The author
visited Gujarat four weeks after the 2002 riot. He observed how the riot had impacted the
livelihood of the poor, both the Hindus and Muslims. Gujarat is famous for readymade garments.
In this industry, which is decentralized and home based, there is a strong dependence on the poor
from both the religions. As a result, immediately after the riot, there was a breakage of the
conveyer process of making these garments, depriving the poor from both the communities of
livelihood opportunities for months.

ADDITIONAL HEALTH HAZARDS AND MALNUTRITION PARTICULARLY

In the chaos that follows natural disasters, the risk of outbreak of communicable diseases is
generally presumed to be very high. It has been observed globally, that the risk factor of
epidemic is associated primarily with population displacement. The factors that influence the risk
and consequently the deaths, are: availability of safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, the
degree of crowding and the underlying health status of the displaced population like the
nutritional status, level of immunity to vaccine— preventable diseases such as measles. The
outbreak is less frequent in natural disasters than in the conflict affected population. Presence of
a large number of dead bodies in the disaster affected areas may heighten the concern of
outbreak of diseases. In spite of the absence of dead bodies due to natural disasters posing a risk
for epidemic, the health officials and the media frequently exaggerate the threat. "When death is
directly due to a natural disaster, human remains do not pose a risk of outbreak. Dead bodies
only pose health risks in cases such as deaths from cholera and hemorrhagic fevers".

The under—five nutrition is the best quantitative indicator of the well being or non — well being
of a household. Figure below is a real-life example of the under—five nutrition of children in a
closed tea garden after one year of the closure. This is also an example of how under—five
nutrition can be quickly assessed using a simple method.

In a disaster, quick nutritional assessment of children from six months onwards to 59 months is
done using the method of measurement of Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) by a
specially designed colored tape. Measurement of MUAC is the measurement of the middle
portion of the upper arm, that is, the portion of the arm between the elbow and shoulder. The
tape has three colors: red, yellow and green. While measuring the MUAC, if the position of the
tape is in red, the child is severely malnourished; if yellow, moderately malnourished; and if
green, normal.

The graph depicts the measurements for MUAC done with children between 6 to 59 months.
Amongst the 402 children, 204 were boys and 198 girls. 54% boys and 57% girls were suffering
from Grade Ill malnutrition (MUAC > 12.5), 26% boys and 24% girls were suffering from Grade
Il malnutrition (MUAC < 13.5 and > 12.5 cm), 22% boys and 17% girls were suffering from
Grade I malnutrition. What is significant to note is that none of the 402 children registered
normal nutritional status (MUAC < 16 cm).
 Distribution of MUAC for under five children

CONTAMINATION OF DRINKING WATER SOURCES

Lack of access to safe drinking water due to contamination caused by a disaster may lead to
water—borne communicable diseases. This has been found most frequently in South Asian
countries. The examples are: flooding in Bangladesh in 2004 led to an outbreak of cholera
resulting in 17,000 cases; 16,000 cases of cholera epidemic in West Bengal in 1998 were
attributed to preceding flood. In the waves of the floods in Orissa during July—August that
affected the tribal areas of Koraput, Rayagada, Dasamantaput and Kalahandi districts, 184 deaths
were reported by UNDP due to cholera epidemic. It has, however, been observed in recent years
that people affected by a disaster know the importance of safe drinking water. After the Orissa
Super Cyclone that ravaged the coastal areas of the Orissa State, there were no reported cases of
the outbreak of any epidemic. It has been observed by the author that the agencies: both public
and private, involved in the distribution of halogen tablets to disinfect drinking water, do not
provide the necessary instructions about the use of these tablets. The tablets are given to the
disaster affected people wrapped in paper. As a result, in no time, the chlorine coming in contact
with air evaporates, thereby giving the disaster affected people a false sense of security.

A study was done by the Water and Sanitation Unit of Oxfam, Great Britain, after the 1998 flood
in Bihar. It was observed by the team that the water of the tube-wells that were not completely
submerged in the flood water had bacteria-free water, but the same water consumed by the
people at home had 22 different types of bacteria. This was because of unhygienic storage and
usage.

IMPACT ON CHILDREN: EDUCATION, SCHOOL DROP OUT

Children, especially the young, because of their physical, social and psychologcal characteristics,
are less equipped to deal with the consequences of disasters. It estimated by agencies working
with a focus on children like Save the Children, that in the late 1990s, there were 66.5 million
disaster-affected children globally. It was also apprehended that by the end of the first decade of
the new millennium, this figure could rise up to 175 million. These figures are estimates without
disaggregation by age, sex and other social contexts. In most circumstances, children are still
grouped with women; thereby a real picture of vulnerability of children is often missing. But the
impact of disaster persists on children well beyond the immediate phase, with long term negative
impact on their well being.

In case when people are forced to live for a protracted period in relief camps or in a safe place
away from their villages, the education of children gets seriously affected. In several places, the
coping mechanism of the poor post disaster is to get children, mainly boys out of school and
engage them in employment in the exploitative unorganized sector. Girls in their early teens are
dropped out of school and are married off much before they attain the marriageable age.
ENVIRONMENTAL LOSS

Degradation of environment is both the cause and effect of a disaster. The biggest threat that the
world is facing today, i.e., global warming, has been caused by changes in the environment.
According to the News Release of June 2000 of the United Nations Environment Program, land
degradation alone affected more than 1900 million hectares of land globally. The loss of
potential productivity due to this was estimated to be equivalent to 20 million tons of grain every
year. The problem of land degradation is most acute in Africa, where more than 65% of the
region's agricultural land was found to be affected by soil erosion. But the problem is global.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Introduction

The most accepted definition of climate change is: "a change in the statistical properties of the
climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of its cause". Global
warming is the continuing rise in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans.
This is caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting from
human activities, like deforestation and burning of fossil fuels. This finding is recognized by the
national science academies of all the major developed and developing countries and is not
disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.

The term 'Climate Change' is sometimes used specifically to refer to changes caused by human
activity; for example, the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) defines climate change as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability". Climate change is synonymous with global warming.
Parts of the climate system, like the oceans and ice caps respond very slowly to pressure creating
climate change because of its large mass.

Phrases, like 'global warming', 'climate change', are being used by scientists, the United Nations
and the key political figures of the world for quite some time now.

These essentially mean warming of the earth's atmosphere that in turn increases the temperature
of the world. Earth's atmosphere is comprised of many gases, collectively known as 'Greenhouse'
gases. The Greenhouse gases are responsible for maintaining the average temperature of the
earth at a comfortable 17℃ and without the Greenhouse effect, the earth's temperature would
have been minus 15℃.

What are the apprehended and evidence-based impacts of global warming: an increase in global
temperature will cause the rise of the sea level endangering people living in small islands, barely
few meters above the sea level; it will change the amount and pattern of rainfall and probably
expansion of deserts. It is expected that the warming will be the strongest in the Arctic-region,
which would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers. Other likely effects of the
warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather including extreme heat and cold
waves, droughts, heavy rain falls in certain parts. All these would result in negative changes in
agricultural yields. The changes will be so significant that the limit of human adaptation may be
exceeded in many places while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be
exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services, upon which human livelihoods
depend, would not be preserved.

The responses of countries to climate change include mitigation measures to reduce emissions,
adaptation to the effects of climate change and geo-engineering efforts to remove the
Greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto
Protocol, which seeks to stabilize Greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous
anthropogenic interference". As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol. The only
members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are USA
and Afghanistan.

Evidence of warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising average sea level globally.
The earth's average surface temperature rise by 0.74℃ over the period 1906-2005. The rate of
warming over the last half of that period was almost doubles that of the period as a whole.
Compared to the pre-industrialization period, the carbon dioxide (C0 2) level of the atmosphere
has increased from 280 parts per million of air (PPM) to 386 PPM: an increase of 37% 9.
Although the winter of 2008-09 in USA and Europe was the coldest after many years, during the
last 100 years, the world has warmed up by an average of 0.740 ℃. This may not sound a
significant change, but 1℃ change can cause catastrophe in the world. With 0.740 ℃ increases
in the temperature of the world, we are now faced with the melting of ice caps and land based
glaciers causing the sea level to rise endangering many islands, metropolis and cities in the
coastal belt.

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about
twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25℃ per decade against 0.130 ℃ per decade). Ocean
temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the oceans lose more heat by evaporation. The Northern
Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere, because it has more land, and because,
it has extensive areas of seasonal snow. More Greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern
Hemisphere as compared to the Southern Hemisphere; but this does not contribute to the
difference in warming, because the major Greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between
hemispheres.
The global climate is changing. It has become no longer an environment issue alone; it is already
affecting the lives and livelihoods of a significantly large number of people, moreso in the
countries with low human development. Sea level is rising: due to melting of glaciers and
expansion of warmer sea water, sea level rise by 15 cm (6 inches). Scientific models predict that
by the end of the 21st century, the sea level may rise as much as 59 cm (23 inches). Densely
populated coastal areas of the world and large cities, like Mumbai and Chennai, would be
severely threatened. The evidence of climate change has already attained alarming proportion.
The future, therefore, is bleak to say the least, unless concerted efforts are made by all countries
to reduce the manmade cause that has contributed to this. Agriculture, the bedrock of economy
of many countries of the world, particularly those with low human development, has become and
would continue to be, in future, more and more unpredictable because of extensive flooding and
drought and unpredictable rainfall distribution due to climate change.

PROBABLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

 Arctic ice is melting: There is scientific evidence that the thickness of Arctic Sea ice is
half of what it was in 1950.
 Glaciers are melting.
 Heavier rainfall is causing extensive flooding in some parts of the world.
 Extensive drought is increasing, erratic and unpredictable rainfall affects monsoon
dependent agriculture, which, in turn, affects a very large population of the world from
the perspective of livelihood and food security.
 The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones have changed.
 More frequent extreme heat and cold waves.
 Warmer temperature is adversely affecting human health and some killer diseases, like
malaria have become rampant, new pathogens have appeared and those which were
dormant have resurfaced with vengeance.
 The rise of sea levels is threatening many coastal areas, like small island countries and
large river deltas around the globe.
 New pests and new crop diseases are severely affecting agricultural production causing
more hunger in the world.
 Acute shortage of drinking water in some parts of the world in the very near future would
occur.
 Climate change has the potential to make living and livelihood impossible in some parts
of the world in forthcoming years, causing larger numbers of refugees.
 Possibility of extinction of many animal species.
 Sea water is becoming more acidic.
 The hills of Uttarakhand, Kashmir, North east India, and Darjeeling will become malaria
prone in the next two decades.
GREENHOUSE GASES

The 'Greenhouse Effect' is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared
radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. The
major Greenhouse gases are: water vapor, which causes about 36—70% of the Greenhouse
effect; carbon dioxide which causes 9—26%; methane which causes 4-9%; and ozone which
causes 3—7%. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiation from carbon dioxide,
methane, troposphere ozone, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and nitrous oxide. The
concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively
since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the
period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological
evidence indicates that carbon dioxide values higher than this were last seen about 20 million
years ago.

Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme
weather events rather than gradual climate change. Impacts of climate change so far include
adverse effects on small islands, adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude
areas, and small but discernible effects on human health. Over the 21st century, climate
change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal
flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.

MITIGATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Reducing the extent of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines mitigation as "activities that
reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb
GHGs from the atmosphere". Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to
use cleaner, less polluting technologies. Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could
result in substantial reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Policies include targets for
emission reduction, increased use of renewable energy and increase in energy efficiency.
Studies indicate substantial potential for future reduction in emissions.