| Winter - 2020 Gujarat j Te | Probability and Statistics MeL semester - I (CEITIECEYElex. (3130006 Solved Paper tine: 2 Hours] (Total Marks : 56 Instructions > 1) Attempt any FOUR questions out of EIGHT questions, 2) Make suitable assumptions wherever necessary. Be be 3) Figures to the right indicate full marks, wee 4) Statistical tables are required, Bith q : hea Q41 a) Find the mean, median and mode for the following frequency distribution : [3] = esha EAS WN G. Ans: a) Mean xy 4x9 +... hoxi0 Mean, xe Ath +h +. +f : = AD#7(2)+ 83) +10(4) + 65) + 6(6) +47) +218) +9(2) +1010) = 4474+8410+6+6+4424241 | = 44 b)Mode : This is the value of x corresponding to highest frequency. Highest frequency is 10 and corresponding value of x is 4. Hence mode = 4. 9 Median : Let us form the following table from given data. He N_50_ fe N = if = 50. Hence = = 25 of cf. just greater than 25 is 29 and the value of x corresponding to 29 &2 7 \ aed hee eal 3-48 Seve Pepe Why | Probebilty and Stlstes 00 bike drivers, 4000 oar drivers ang cident involving a bike driver, a car ability of @” (0.15 respectively. One of the insured », : nd ais and a truck sro 200 ce proality that he isa bike drive 2 sasured 20 yy An insurance compar ino ? with an ac ike dri ‘ = 4B, be the events of driver being bike driver, car driver ang Anns Let Bu Ba Omi ryace ae 200 bike dover 400 30 drivers and 6000 tue, es eearaate Mr ehicle drivers are 2000 + 4000 + 6000/= 12000, drivers. Hence, 2000 _ 1 PB) * i590 76 40001 PB) = 9973 000 1 Ps) = 3000-2 Let 'A' be an event that the person meets an accident. Hence, P(A/B;) = P (Bike drivers’ accident) = 0.10 ‘P(A/B2) = P (Car drivers’ accident) = 0.03 P(A/Bs) = P (Truck drivers' accident) = 0.15 Now the probability that bike driver meets an accident is given by Baye's theorem, IBY/A) jerome) 0 P(B;)-P(A/B;)+P(Bz) P(A/Ba)+P(B3) P(A/B3) 1 fe «0.10 tt} = 0189 701045 008+ 035 ©) A manufacturer of external ai, Aries claims that only 10 % of his drives THe eis within the st yu, dace get: 5 of 20 of his dies ? a Ws tend to support or refute the bl many are [4] ly 3 e The Hg! ii) Lepes ty ane tai petit 8-47 | 6009 Be em itain Solved Peper Winter-2020 9 .: i) This is Binor tribution probl sre dns “tat drive requires repairs within waren cae % = 02 be the probability ms refuted if 5 or more Of 20 drives resuise 2 pert of 12 months. The claim is (4) calculated as, ‘quire maintenance, This probabil probability can be : ee ‘ . 20 ck PG or more requires maintenance) = S'2c, pak iss the right handside can be calculated using complementary function ie. P( or more requires maintenance) = 1- BBephyrk k=O 1= (Co (04)? (09)? +c, 0.1)1(0)8 20, +79C(0.1)7(0.9)'8 + 0c (0.1) 3(0.9)"7 + 2c, (0:1)40.9)") = 1- 0.9565 = 0.0434 | This probability is too small. Hence manufacturer's claim can be supported. ii) Let 'X' represent the amount of coffee put into the jar. Only 2 % of jars contain less than 4 ounces. ie., PK <4) = 2% = 0.02 and = 004 Here 'X’ is normally distributed with . = m = 4 ounces. This means, PK <4) = 0.02 ie Xcu ¢4-H) _ 002 : of 005 * at) og 3 4p ie S¥) = 04 r(zs am) o From normal distribution tables P(Z s - 2.05) = 0.02 4-H _ _ 2.05 = p = 4.082 ounces = 1-P(Z$42) 42, w= 4.082 and o = 0.04, distribution tables P(Z $4.2) = 0998 a2 ‘solved Paper Winter-2020 ee Probability and Statistics S-48 potabo Hence expected number of jars (out of 10,000) containing more than 4.2 ounces are, ub Number of jars = NP (z > 4.2) = 10,000 x 0.002 = 20 jars certain injection i) More than 2 31 Q.2 a) If the probability that an individual suffers a bad renction from a is 0.001. Find the probability that out of 2000 individuals, individuals; ii) Exactly 3 individuals will suffer @ bad reaction. ‘Ans.: _ Here let 'p' be the probability that individual suffers a bad reaction. Hence p = 0001 and n = 2000 es A = np = 2000 x 0.001 = 2 ae 1) P (more than 2 Individuals suffers reaction) = ifs Let 'X' be the number of individuals that suffer a bad reaction. This probability can figure be obtained using Poisson's distribution as follows : 2000 4k, a PK>2 = o ke3 ‘This summation can be evaluated using complementary function ‘as follows : ie. PX >2) = 1-PK <2) ie. 2 pke* 2 ake = 1- =1-) —— ie. Bork 202 gle? er . S 1+ Olea se liamenz | = 0.3233 il) P(3 individuals suffer reaction) : Using Poisson distribution this probability is given as, ee Phone: 220m PKS 3) Seo 7 8 b ; ) Aste lain tat he can pe a thre of 120 words per minute. St & a i a er aa coat openl of 116 wari ci : et pe oebaweta ‘Does this enable us to reject the mull hypothesis : ternative hypothesis uw < 120 at the 0,05 level of i ‘ significance ? eB hypothesis to be tested is that her claims to be accepted.ana statistics eu 02 ee 0 120 and Hy :m# 120 maces Wee oration Hy isting * oi eed = kel = isin ees t 12 | i] 116-120) Bl | | bi ica = 2.67 > 1.96 = 116,0 = 15,n=100in | difference is not significant at both 5 % and icancé significant at 1% level of signifi | geet ore 267 is Nighy significant, Hence Hy i Bcd te ieee / is somebody is interested in the number of trials on the basi it gu her aim would not have been rejected, he can ean eet -4 $196 a5/¥n| | _ (16-120 kl = = 13/Jn | " 4 4 <196 ie. Yn 049x15 ie, Jn < 735 ie. Vn? 35)? ie. Vn $5402 ie, n = 54 trials. 4) The time to check out and process payment information at an office supplies 2 one ie poled as random. sree ch men = 69 sends pariance 02 = 61 seconds. What is the probability that a random sample of size 36 has mean greater than 66.75 ? Gl °) i) f too random variables X and Y have the joint density _[ixty?), for Qex 150), Using complement ———eyBLICATIONS = An up trust for nouledo®$-56 Paper id Statistics: Vinay 3 21-P( P(X > 150) = 1 : ‘ ae x) = PXS*) above equation can be written as, i CDF Fx(X=%) = Since 100 2150) = ifs] PO > 150) = 1-Fx(X 150) orale i00 a 1-[t-35 b) The mumber of flaws in a fiber optic cable follows a Poisson a average of 0.6 per 100 feet. Process . at ili in a 200 foot cable. i) Find the probability of exactly 2 flaws in a id Find the probability of exactly 1 flaw in the first 100 feet and exactly 1p, in the second 100 feet. Ans: Let '¥ denote the number of flaws in fibre optic cable. There are 06 flays iy - 100 feet cable. 1) P(2 flaws in 200 feet) : Value of ' for 2 flaws in 200 feet cable will be, A = 2x06=12 Using Poisson's distribution, aa = akenA P= = FE Asi PK=2) = 12 = 02169 ii) P(1 flaw in first 100 feet and 1 flaw in Second 100 feet) : Value of 4 for 1 law in 100 feet is 4 = 1x06=06 : 2 (0,6) 10-0. ! + Pike) @ Wale * PX=1 and X=1) = 03903 x 9.3995 Sa Thus probabili A 4 1us probal oO ee tis 01084 . feet is U..Winter ona rats é S-97 A Solved Paper Wintor-2020 ) The population (p) of a small communi d y ity On the outskirts i EOS vex ; of @ city grows ee ett cml Bh 1D cam aa PL me. | 200, | 0 | 0 | a | As an engineer working for a utility company, you must forecast the population 5 years into the future in order to anticipate the demand for power. Employ an exponential model and linear regression to make this prediction. > Wit] Han roximation of y = ae™ is to be obtained. Taking logarithm on both la jon: Here app 8 | sides 1 flew ny = Inatbx following table lists out the calculations wired for above approximation laws for - - oa Normal equations for least squares straight line approximation are, ~ Dyi = nag tbDti Dtyi = ap Dtitbyt? Putting values in above equation, 30.468 = 5ay +50b- $4242 = 50aq +750b 3 above equations, ag = 4.584 and b = 0.151 4584 = 97.905 = 97.905 eon 1 cand by puting = 5. ay=Inaspaz= et =e ak 0131% op p = 97905¢ bx for a and b in equation y = 2 ees of population is next five yearsy | provebity £08 Se Probebilty end Sttistics 8-58 Solved Paper Winter 2020 sonaard ev p = 97.905 e%151*25 = 4768.42 we have t° Aon | gt fil in Tes Q.6 a) The joint probability density of two random variables is given by eS _ _ [6e21-32, for xy > 0,x2 > 0, ys 0, elseoiere | ing sa J Find the marginal densities ofboth the random variables and hence show that the |g, = 6-124 28 ‘too random variables are independent. BI PK s4 ‘Ans,; The joint pdf is given as, | sil is eo | Syxp(XiX2) = e772 for xj > 0 and xz > 0 | 5 Marginal densities are given as, fa) = [frye bxa)dxz = [f 662d 21 eX2dx, = 6e-21 [eZ dx [ eX2dx, = be" fe 2 i ae soot eG 4 fyb) = [L fxyxberxa) dx = [6223 2dx, = 6f ee 2dx, = bee 21 dx - om 23032 -2 0. b) The probability that an electronic component will fail im less than 1000 hours of continuous use is 0.25. Use the normal approximation to find the probability that among 200 such components fewer than 45, will fail in less than 1000 hours of continuous use, rey Ans.: — Here let 'p’ be the probability that the comy Eicne a of 1000 hours. Hence, y ‘ponent will fail in continuous use P = 0.25 Let 'n' be the number of components selected, Hence, n = 200 value, my = np = 200 x 0.25 = 50 TECHNICAL PUBLICATIONS". Anup trust for8-59 ¥npl=p) = (200x025(=025) find the probability that We have to out of 200 component Yan ess than 1000 hourse of continuous use will be en a components pxsss) = FxC5) Solved Paper Winter-2020 ter-2009 "2020 124 tying standard normal distribution tables, F (45) can be obtained for m, = 50 and that the 5, = bit r [3] : pox s45) = Fx(45) = 0207 zis is the required probability c) Fit parabola y =a +bx+ex? to the following data : ral L 2 3 5 ( 6 | 559 86.7 Here n = 5 data points. Let us prepare the following table based on the given "Following normal equations are formed, Di = na+byxi +¢D i Yai = ax tbyGteL" Den = apeeeny ede - Putting values from table in above equations * 167 = 5at17b+7¢ 649 = 17a+750+97° : pusuicaTions’- Anup ns for knowteeo® TECHNICALSolved Paper Winter-2o29 s-60 Probability and St \ | | Png apace eo itions + solving above simultaneous lineat equa | p= 2703, b =~ 4555, ¢= 3077 | 2 Putting above values in equation Y © atbxtox*, | = 9723-4.563x+307X° | parabola for the given data. ile collision ndom sample of 80 bod | re collision insurance costs, @ ra , oe ce a pct Hind of damage Wad a men of 33065 © and ulin 9 OAC fyi

12), PX> 12) = 1-P(XKs12) 12 1 1-[) &k(@)dx = 1-f pre ax 5 Here let us use [xe*dx = ‘Xie ange E 1 With a =~, above equation becomes, 2 P(X > 12) = 2 zB deen: He coco} aol Fe] = ber! *. 10 = 0.0916 m, = aR = 2x3 =6. bearings made by a certain process have @ mean diameter of 0.506 cm and dard deviation of 0.004 cm. Assuming that the data may be looked upon as variable from a normal population, construct a 95 % confidence the actual average diameter of bearings made by this process. (3) protection agency wants to test a paint ‘manufacturer's claim that vat is 20 minutes, It instructs a member ofits drying time of new paint staff to paint each of 36 boards using & different I-gallon can of the” mane”. An up thrust for knowledge | * ISolved Paper Winter-2029 | s-62 Probability and Statistics 5: a im if the mean OJ irying ti | it ic sing the claim if the mea” times ee a nee ee itil accept the claim. Eee the peat ¥ | eee "ie, find the probability of a type II error when Bi 7 | a rr “Assume that = 2.4 minutes. i ‘Ans: i)a/2 =(1-095)/2= 0.025 x =0506 $20.04 n= 10 : ; | The sample size is n = 10, the degrees of freedom (df) =n- 1 = het value for 95% concidence with of = 9S = 2262 e t value for 95 % confidence, we have the | Substituting the sample statistics and th following expression = : Xt S : | 95 % confidence interval = 0.506 + 2.262 (0.004//10) = 0.506 + 2.262 (3.16) : } : = 0.506 + 7.147 and 0.506 - 7.147 = 7.65 and - 6.641 ii) Probability of a type I error : P(X'>205|n=20) = 1 - F [(205 - 20)/(24/36)] = 1-F(125) = 0.1056 Probability of a type I error : P(X> 205|u=21) = 1-F [(20.5 - 21)/(24//36)] c = 1-F(1.25) = 0.1056 Qs a) ae dean of a college wants to use the mean of a random sample to estimate the ie amount 0 time students take to get from one class to the next and she ae hee ra to assert with 99 % confidence that the error is at most . If it can be presumed i i ‘og Neate en im experience that 6 = 1.40 minutes, a Maximum error E = 0,25 minute Standard deviation (6) = 1.40 minutes Zqr = 2575 TECHNICAL PUBLICATIONS". Anup thust foristics posit stat $63 Solved Paper Winter-2020 2 Sample sizen = [242°] _[2575x14) alder b) How exponential distribution is useful in real applications ? Find the mean and ‘variance of the exponential distribution (4) oe a forx>0,B>0, 0, elsewhere (Refer section 2.7.1 and example 2.7.1) 3. (A random sample from a company’s very extensive files shows that orders for a certain piece of machinery were filled, respectively, in 10, 12, 19, 14, 15, 18, 11 and 13 days. Use the level of significance « = 0.01 to test the claim that on average such orders are filled in 10.5 days. Choose the alternative hypothesis s0 that rejection of the null hypothesis . = 10.5 implies that it takes longer than indicated. Assume normality. fal Ans.: 1, Sete the null and alternative hypotheses. Hy ip = 105 versus Hy +H #105 2. Specify the rejection region. Since a, = 0.01 and df = 7, TM ta = tooos = 3499 X-Ho : where T= sin 3. Compute the value of the test statistic. : KWo _ 14-105 _ 5.993 Lin 3.2/¥8 3,093 < 3.499 =» Do not reject Ho alue. 998 < 3,093 < 3.128 = toootss 7 2(0.00833) < p-value < 2(0.01) =» value < 0.02 0.01666 < P-' ogo oo) fe