Click on the box next to Input Runge, select the Calls data (including the heading) tnd then check the box in front of Labels, Select the box next to Damping Factor If we want to construct an exponentially smowthed series with = 02, 2. then for Damping Factor we enter | a= 0.8. Finally, indicate an Output Range. we enter D2. thus replicating the forecasts shown in column 3 of Table 10.4. Click OK. R for simple as + allow user Note: In Section 10.6, we will show how to use Analytic Solver an well ay advanced exponential smoothing techniques. Both software packas supplied and computer-generated values for the smoothing parameters, including 4. EXERCISES 10.2 Mechanics 2 GEE crercise_ 10.1. the accompanying data fe contains 20 observations for rand y, {Use the 3-petiod moving average for making forecasts. ‘Use the in-sample forecast errors to compute MSE, MAD, and MAPE. _Make a forecast fr period 2, (EIED crercise_ 10.2. he accompanying datafile contains 20 observations for andy, 2. Use simple exponential smoothing witha = 0.2 for making forecasts . Use the in-sample forecast errors to compute MSE, MAD, and MAPE. Make a forecast fr period 21 Applications 3 GIES convenience. store, The owner of a convenience sore nea at Lake Cy nah has ben tbuating wey sales at te store, excaing gas The accompanying dt fle Ceotans he aes or 30 weeks. 2 Usethe2 period moving average to forecast ses or tne 3st week Use simple exponent! smoothing wih forecast sales forthe 31st week. Which is the peered tecbique for making the forecast based on MSE, MAD, an MAPE? GIA spotty. Spotty 2 muse steaming platform that ‘ves acest songs rm ata al ve the wo The {companying data He conan he monty stock price of Spoil for 11 month ater started vadng onthe New York Stock xchange. 4 Use he 3 period moving average forecast Spots stock pice forthe 12h month 1 Usesle exponent smoothing with a= 0.210 forecast Spot's stock pice forthe 12th moth (Woche prefered technique for making the forecast based on MSE MAD, nd MAPE? (IIE rooatruck. Food tucks have become a common sight ‘on American campuses, They serve cores of hungry students toting tough campus and ooking for wendy ood served 310 {ast The accompanying dat fe contains the umber of students served on weekdays on a smal campus in Cloris, 1. Use the 3-period moving average to make a forecast fr weekday 4, 1, Use the S-perid moving average to make 2 forecast or weekday 41. ‘& Which isthe preferred technique for making the forecast based on MSE, MAD, and MAPE? ‘Exchange Rate, Consider the exchange rate ofthe $ {USO} ‘wth € (Euro) and § (USD) wth € (Pound). The accompanying ‘data contains the exchange rate for 25 weeks. a. Find the 3-period and the 5-period moving averages fr Euro. Based on MSE, MAD, and MABE, use the prefered ‘mode! to forecast Euro forthe 26th week. Find the simple exponential smoothing series fr Pound ‘th possible values of 0.2, 04, 06. Based on MSE, ‘MAD, and MAPE, use the preferred model to forecast ound forthe 26th week [Downtown_Cofe. The manager ofa trendy ‘downtown cae in Columbus, Oho, collects weekly data ‘onthe numberof customers it serves. The accompanying fle contains he data {Use the simple exponential smoothing technique wth a= 0.2 tomake a forecast fr week 53. Use the simple exponential smoothing technique wth ‘a =04 to make a forecast for week 53. {& Whichis the preferred technique for making the forecast based on MSE, MAD, and MAPE? BIE cos Prices tis iticult to predict gas prices given @ multude of factors atfecing them. The accompanying data fle contains 22 weeks ofthe average week regular gasoline rice (Sper gallon) in New England andthe West Coast 8. Find the 3period and the 5-period moving averages for gas prices in New England. Based on MSE, MAD, and 'MAPE, use te preferred model to forecast gas pices for the 23d week. ' Find the simple exponential smoothing series with possible «values of 0.2, 04,06 for gas prices on the West Coast. Based on MSE, MAD, and MAPE, use the preterred model to forecast gas prices fr the 231d week | BUSINESS ANALYTICS | 10.2 Simple Smootning Techniques,EXERCISES 10.3 Mechanics 9, Alinea end model estimated from 30 days of datas given by = 80.20 + 0.62. Use the estimated modelo forecasty forthe next two days. 10, Consider the folowing linear tend models estimated from 10 years of quarterly data with and without seasonal ‘aummy variables a, 0, nd dy Here, d= 1 fr quarter 1.0 ‘otherwise other dummy variables are defined sia. Model 1:7 = 48.00 + 0.441 48,00+ 0.46t— 0.380, — 042d, — 0.120, 1. Use each model to make a forecast ory forthe fist and the fourth quarters of the 1th eat. , Whichis the preferred model for forecasting if, relative to Model 1, Model has higher but lower adjusted &”? Applications 11, EB gure organ Banchosbeen encuaigts castomers tous new mobbing 99 Wie sy be god or buses he bank as deal wt uber of nies receives south ew ap. The cconPanieg Gata ences wey ngs bankas ceed oer tre pst 30 weet Estimate he tes end mal frees tre rombe ong ohne WO Weeks, 12, [GE stock. Pre An inest stn gin om the pos te momentum ofa componys sock prc anaes 53 wels (rset pect. ne ccmpanyng le caes ted a. state anainerret th neared model 0 seesoiy ate forecast ore next week 4 wee 1, [ES homourger. amour ace expences sina ner sles on Fidos nd Sodas compared se omer cys of he week Te acomparing dt le rednss tne ss tor 0 wees Estat ner end model sgt weekend uy vanel tcapires the ght 2a tone fr Fay and Sera Use te esate reeves he sles for Monday aay wek 14 ES cova ncoutyhas been dating COMI orb st ‘few months. The accompanying datafile includes the daily veer anew COM aes conor si wees reat number af COMI cases recorded ove the ett ihinces Stuy a Sony. over ban semnmcenay Estates ear tend mae! long vrevawockend guy vale ed fect he umber of Co cases or Monday ad Saroy of we 15 ED rex Revenue in color, sale of mea mavna segnianovenber 201 ower te Deporment ot Revenue did not report tax coecton data unt February of 2014. The accompanying data le includes monty reverwe from medal and retal marijuana tax and fee colectons 3s posted in the Colorado state accounting system. Use the near trend model no seasonality to forecast the tx revenue for Noverber and December of 2018. 16. Revenue Lowes. Lowe's Companies, nc. is 2 home improvement company offering a range of products for maintenance. repait, remodeling, nd decorating. The ‘accompanying data fie includes quarterly revenue (n $ mi tions) for Lowe's with its fiscal year concluding atthe end of January, ‘8. Estimate and interpret te linear tend model with seasonal dummy variables. bi. Use the estimated model to forecast Lowe's revenue for the ist quarter of 2021, 17, GENES vocation, Vacation destinations often run on 8 ‘seasonal basis, depending onthe primary actives in that location, Amanda Wang isthe owner ofa travel agency ia Cincinnati ia Se has bul a database of the number of vacation packages (Vacation) that she has sold over the last 42 years. The accompanying fle incades quarterly data on the numberof vacation packages sold a. Estate the linear regression models using seasonal dummy variables with and without the tend term, Whiehsthe preferred model? Use the preferred model to forecast the quarterly number ‘of vacation packages sod inthe fist two quarters of 2020. 18. CIE sentiment. the accompanying data file contains the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment inex. Ths index ‘is normalized to havea value of 100 in 1966 ands used to record changes in consumer morale. Estimate the near trend ‘model wit seasonal dummy variables to make a forecast for January 2020. 19, EES useatcars. Used car dealerships generally have sales, quotas that they stve to hit each month quarter, and calendar year. Consequently, buying a used car toward the end of those petods presents a great opportunity to get a good dea on the ct. The accompanying fle indudes monthly sales data for used crs (Cars fom 2014-2018. ‘Estimate the tinear regression modes using seasonal ‘dummy variables with and without the trend term. Wich the preferred model? b, Use the preferred model to forecast used carsales inthe fist two months of 2020.