Topic 3:

Predictive Life Cycle

• Stakeholder Analysis
• Develop Project baselines
(Scope, Schedule, Cost)
• Resource Management
(Team and Physical)
• Cost of Quality
• Risk Response Strategies
and Reserve Analysis

1
 • End users • Sponsors
Can you categorize these
• Customers • Business partners
stakeholders?
• Which are typically • Employees • Suppliers and contractors
project team • Organization • Government
members? Which are
• Managers • Community
not?
• Which are typically
active in project work?

2
• Stakeholder register
• Stakeholder engagement plan
• Communications management plan
• Stakeholder engagement assessment
matrix (SEAM)
• Assessment grids / matrices / models

33
Who are they?
• Check the business case and benefits management plan for
names
• Later, check the issue/impediments log, change log or
requirements documents to see who else is needed or named

What’s their relationship to the project?

• Interest
• Involvement
• Interdependencies
• Influence
• Potential impact on project success

Identify and engage stakeholders early to

avoid surprises later in the project!

4
Data Gathering
• Questionnaires and surveys
• Brainstorming

Data Analysis
• Stakeholder analysis — What are their “stakes” in the project? — i.e.,
interest, rights, ownership, knowledge, contribution
• Document analysis

Data Representation
• Two-dimensional (2D) grids
• Power/interest
• Power/influence
• Impact/influence
• 3D grid — Stakeholder “cube”
• Salience model
• Directions of influence
5
 HIGH

Use two dimensions to map stakeholders: KEEP MANAGE

SATISFIED CLOSELY
• Power and interest grid

POWE
• Power and influence grid

R
• Impact and influence grid
MONITOR KEEP
INFORMED
Or use three dimensions – a cube –
to refine the analysis further! LOW INTEREST HIGH

Method:
• Place each stakeholder on the grid (do
not use names)
• Use the same quadrant labels, but
change the axis labels

6
You should understand the social network of project
stakeholders, specifically the direction of their influence on
the project.

Parent organization — senior management

Upward
(business, financial interests)
Downward In the project hierarchy — team or specialists
Have a “stake” in the project — client, end-user,
Outward
external
Friendly or competitive for resources —
Sideward project manager's peers, other organizational
departments

7
 URGENCY LEGITIMACY
• Level of required Appropriate involvement
attention/detail Or proximity, as applied to
• Time constraints team stakeholders,
• High stakes indicating level of
Focus on the product
owner role. Are they involvement with project
familiar, interested work
and engaged enough
with the project to POWER
make decisions and
move the project Level of
forward? authority

8
 Stakeholder Unaware Resistant Neutral Supportive Leading

Tailor labels for 1 D C

stakeholder levels of 2 C D
engagement to your
3 C D
context, team or
organization.
4 C D
Don’t use names on
the matrix – refer to 5 C D
stakeholders by
number. 6 C D

C – Current engagement level | D – Desired engagement level

9
• Project scope or product
scope?
• Is it fixed or flexible?

Legal Consequence Land Preparation

for Land Acquisition for Rail Track

External Stakeholders are

more influential

10
Rolling Wave Planning
• A form of progressive elaboration
applied to work packages, planning
packages and release planning
• Used in adaptive or predictive
approaches

11
• A simple format — e.g., a document
listing all requirements, categorized
by stakeholder and priority, OR
• More elaborate — e.g., executive
summary, detailed descriptions,
attachments
• Requirements traceability matrix

12
 CA-1
1.0 2.0

1.1 2.2 2.1 2.3

1.2
2.2.1

2.2.2
2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5 2.2.6

CA-X
2.2.7 2.2.8 2.2.9 2.2.10 2.2.11 2.2.12 2.2.13

2.2.7.1
2.2.9.1 2.2.9.2 2.2.11.1 2.2.11.2

2.2.7.2

13
 Decompose work and include:
• WBS code identifier
Provides detailed • Description of work
deliverable, activity • Assumptions and constraints
and scheduling
• Responsible organization
information about
each component in • Schedule milestones
the WBS • Associated schedule activities
• Resources required to
complete the work
• Cost estimations
• Quality requirements
• Acceptance criteria
• Technical references
• Agreement information
14
The project manager:
• Breaks down a work package into the required activities
• Determines dependencies and precedence relationships
• Estimates the duration of activities based on average resources
• Determines the critical path
• Resolves resource overallocations
• Compresses the schedule, if needed, to meet constraints

15
 Viaduct-1 (16.77 KM) Deliverable

Work Sub-Structure Super Structure

package

1. Land Acquisition. 1. Design.

2. Alignment Fixation. 2. Mobilization (Man, Mat, Eqpt,Lab,
3. Soil Bearing Test. Pre- cast yard etc).

4. Test Pile and Load Test. 3. Constr of Segmental Box Girder.

Activities 4. Erection of Box Girder.
5. Submission of Design and Approval.
6. Mobilization (Man, Mat, Eqpt, Lab, 5. Pre stressing & post Tensioning..
Batching Plant etc). 6. Walkway, Expansion Joint, Finishing
7. Piling Work with Load Test. work.

8. Constr of Pile Cap.

9. Constr of Pier.

16
 DEPENDENCY TYPES

Meaning Action by Project Manager

Contractually required or
Must schedule it — No way
Mandatory inherent in the nature of
around this sequence
the work
Established because of Can be modified as needed,
best practices or a if replaceable with a better
Discretionary
specific sequence is sequence, or if schedule
desired compression is required
Activities performed
External outside the project team’s Limited or no control
work
In project work,
Internal Has control
contingent on inputs

17
Predecessor activity is an activity that logically comes before a dependent activity in a schedule
(drives the relationship)
Successor activity is a dependent activity that logically comes after another activity in a schedule
(driven by the relationship)
PDM includes four types of dependencies or logical relationships.
✓ Finish-to-Start (FS)
Predecessor must finish
Successor can start
✓ Finish-to-Finish (FF)
Predecessor must finish
successor can finish
✓ Start-to-Start (SS)
Predecessor must start
successor can start
✓ Start to Finish (SF)
Predecessor must start
successor can finish
Leads and Lags:
A Lead is the amount of time whereby a successor activity can be advanced with
respect to a predecessor activity. Example, landscaping could be scheduled to start two
weeks prior to the scheduled punch list completion.
A lag is the amount of time whereby a successor activity will be delayed with respect to
a predecessor activity. Example, Technical writing team may begin editing the draft of a
large document 15 days after they begin writing it.

+
 • Less costly and time
• Uses historical data from a similar activity or • May be inaccurate,
consuming
Analogous project to estimate duration (or cost) depending on quality of
• Used when project
• aka “top-down estimating.” historical information
information is limited
• Does not account for a
• Uses an algorithm to calculate duration (or cost) • Can produce higher levels
learning curve — i.e., work
based on historical data and project parameters. of accuracy depending on
gets easier as team
Parametric • Durations can be quantitatively determined — sophistication of data from
becomes more expert
multiply quantity of work to be performed by the model
• Uniform units of work are
number of labor hours per unit of work • Scalable and linear
not typical in projects

• Defines an approximate range of an activity’s • May improve accuracy of

• Requires detailed resource
duration, using most likely, optimistic, and single-point estimations by
Three- information
Point
pessimistic estimates including risk and
• Requires expert knowledge
• Used when historical data is insufficient, or uncertainty factors
to estimate tasks
subjective

• May be very time

• Very accurate and gives consuming
• Uses aggregates of the estimates of the lower
Bottom-up lower-level managers more
level components of the WBS • Can be used only after the
responsibility
WBS has been well defined

20
 ACTIVITY ACTIVITY
2 4
4 WEEKS 3 WEEKS

ACTIVITY 1 ACTIVITY 6
Sequence mandatory START
6 WEEKS 1 WEEK
FINISH
critical path activities
to find the longest path
through a project and to ACTIVITY ACTIVITY
determine the shortest 3 5
5 WEEKS 4 WEEKS
possible project
duration and the
amount of flexibility in
the schedule 1[6w] + 2[4w] + 4[3w] + 6[1w] = 14-weeks

1[6w] + 3[5w] + 5[4w] + 6[1w] = 16-week critical path

Note: Spotlight video on Working with the Critical path

21
Smoothing
• Adjusts the activities within predefined
resource limits and within free and total floats
• Does not change the critical path nor delay
the completion date
• Method may not be able to optimize all
resources

Levelling
• Adjusts start and finish dates based on
resource constraints
• Goal is to balance demand for resources with
available supply
• Use when shared or critically required
resources have limited availability or are
over-allocated
• Can change the critical path
22
Fast-tracking
• Perform activities in parallel to reduce time
• May result in rework, increased risk and increased cost

Crashing
• Shortens schedule duration for the least incremental cost by adding
resources – e.g., overtime, additional resources
• Works only for activities on the critical path
• Does not always produce a viable alternative and may result in
increased risk and/or cost

23
24
• Includes start and finish activities
• Uses specific dates and in a certain sequence
• Sets dates for project milestones
• Coordinates activities to ensure on-time project completion
• Tracks project progress based on schedule performance and
provides visibility of project status to upper management and project
stakeholders

25
26
ID Task Name April May June July
3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/14 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25

30 Begin Phase 1
31 Deliverable A
32 Deliverable B
Phase Gate
33
Review
34 Begin Phase 2
35 Deliverable C
36 Deliverable D
Phase Gate
37
Review
Remember that milestones have
zero duration 27
Notations are for graphical
example only!

28
• Identify resources - People and equipment
• How to acquire them
• Peoples’ roles and responsibilities
• Role – A person’s function in a project
• Authority - Rights to use resources, make decisions, accept
deliverables.
• Responsibility - Assigned duty
• Competencies and skills required
• Project Organization Chart – (Visual with resource categories and
reporting relationships)
• Project team resource management – Guidance on how to define,
select, manage and release resources
• Training - Strategies and requirements
• Team development methods
• Resource controls - Methods for ensuring non-human-resources
are available as needed
• Recognition plan
29
• Document resource availability (people, equipment, material, etc.)
during a planned activity period.
• Use when estimating project activities and understanding
dependencies
• Specifies when, and for how long, identified team and physical
resources will be available during the project
• Progressively elaborate and update it throughout the project

Resource calendars can be used in any kind of

project!

30
 • Performs work to complete the task or create the
RESPONSIBLE deliverable
A team member
• Every task has at least one responsible person

ACCOUNTABLE • Delegates and reviews the work involved in a project

On the team • Ensures the responsible person/team knows project
Responsibility assignment
(leadership/ expectations and completes work on time
matrix (RAM) or RACI management) • Each task has only one accountable person
chart:
• Provides input and feedback on project work
• Designates types of CONSULT
accountabilities assigned • Not every task or milestone needs a consulted party
to resources or Stakeholders
stakeholders Consider all stakeholders, but invite only necessary
input
• Keeps information visible
INFORM
Usually not • Needs to be informed of project progress because their
project decision work might be affected, but don’t need details
makers

Note: Spotlight video on RACI 31

 • Work with organization’s finance or procurement department
• Use pre-approved vendors before requesting a new vendor
• Observe purchase amount limits per signatory — i.e. contracts
• Prerequisite OPAs valued over a certain threshold must be co-signed
• Acquisition method • Use defined bidding process and templates
• Contract types
• Require RFPs for contracts valued over a certain threshold
• Procurement phases
• Follow escalation procedures for approval of spending limits
• Pay contracts at a defined time – e.g., upon completion of work or at
the end of a project, with net payment terms

32
Contracts:
• Legalize working agreements
• Give structure to working relationships
• Further collaboration with partners
• Consider risks associated with contract types
• Deliver benefits to the buyer - different benefits by type
• Can be tailored for the partnership

DETERMINATION
REQUEST PROPOSAL CONTRACT
OF NEED

33
• Description of work - deliverables and scope
• Delivery date and schedule information
• Identification of authority, where appropriate
• Responsibilities of both parties
• Management of technical and business aspects
• Price and payment terms
• Provisions for termination
• Applicable guarantees and warranties
• Intellectual property
• Security, confidentiality, data privacy

34
8. Project budget $ 1,423

7. Management reserves $68

6. Cost baseline $1,355

5. Contingency reserves $ 105

4. Budget estimates $ 1,250

CA 1
3. Control account estimates CA2
$ 850
$400

WP 1
2. Work package estimates WP2 WP3 WP 4
$100
$250 $500 $ 175

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
1. Activity estimate
$25 $25 $25 $25 $ 45

35
• Compare planned
project expenditure
against funding limits
• Align
work/expenditures on
the schedule to level
the rate of
expenditures

36
Estimate the cost for each activity or Expecting the scope to change?
work package in a project.
Use lightweight estimation methods
Cost estimates should include: for high-level estimating.
• Direct labor
• Materials
• Equipment
• Facilities
• Services
• Information technology
• Contingency reserves

Use:
• Rough order of magnitude (-25 to
+75%)
• Definitive Estimate (-5 to +10%)
• Phased estimate
37
✓ Usually, the most expensive approach is to
let the customer find the defects.
✓ Detect and correct the defects before the
deliverables are sent to the customer as
part of the quality control process.
✓ Use quality assurance to examine and
correct the process itself and not just
special defects.
✓ Incorporate quality into the planning and
designing of the project and product.
✓ Create a culture throughout the
organization that is aware and committed
to quality in processes and products.

38
39
Quality Management Plan, The quality management plan is a component of the project
management plan that describes how applicable policies, procedures, and guidelines will be
implemented to achieve the quality objectives. It describes the activities and resources
necessary for the project management team to achieve the quality objectives set for the project.
Components may include
✓ Quality standards that will be used by the project;
✓ Quality objectives of the project;
✓ Quality roles and responsibilities;
✓ Project deliverables and processes subject to quality review;
✓ Quality control and quality management activities planned for the project;
✓ Quality tools that will be used for the project;
✓ Major procedures relevant for the project, such as dealing with nonconformance, corrective
actions procedures, and continuous improvement procedures.

Quality Metrics, specifically describes a project or product attribute and how the Control Quality
process will verify compliance to it. Such as percentage of tasks completed on time, cost
performance measured by CPI, failure rate, number of defects identified per day, total downtime
per month, errors found per line of code etc

40
 Six Sigma (aka Lean Six Sigma) – DMAIC framework (Define,
Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) – focus on removing waste

Kaizen – “change for better/improve”

(PDCA) Plan – Do – Check – Act – Shewhart/Deming

Agile methods - Scrum, Kanban, Crystal Methods (software), etc.

Note: Continuous Improvement

41
Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or
negative effect on one or more project objectives (such as: scope, schedule,
cost, quality)

Uncertainty ========> Probability

Effect ========> Impact (Consequence)

Negative Risk Threats

Positive Risk Opportunities

Known Risk (Known-Unknown): Can identified and

analyzed, can manage proactively or assigned a
contingency reserve.

Unknown Risk (Unknown-Unknown): Can not

identified or manage proactively. Assigned a
management reserve.

Risk VS Issue (Known): Discuss

42
Create Risk
Strategy How would you describe the Management Guidelines
organization/ project’s risk • Use qualitative (high, medium,
appetite? low, etc.) or quantitative
(numerical) ratings
• Risk-seeking?
• Risk-neutral? • Set a maximum risk exposure
First, understand risk level that can be managed
• Risk-averse?
parameters for the without escalation
organization and the The risk threshold is tied to
project! individual and organizational risk
appetites. Do you know:
• Which are too high to accept?
• Which are low enough to just be
accepted?
• What criteria determines
inclusion in the risk register?
RISK TOLERANCE
Low High

43
44
Set initial risk strategy, then define In the plan:
and refine it! • Risk strategy
• Methodology
Factor in project characteristics: • Roles and responsibilities
• Size • Funding
• Complexity • Timing
• Importance • Risk categories
• Development approach • Stakeholder risk appetite
• Definition of risk probability and
impact
Create a risk management plan!
• Probability and impact matrix
• Reporting formats
• Tracking documents

45
 + / - IMPACT ON PROJECT OBJECTIVES

✓ Very Low (01): The event is unlikely to occur (1% to 20% probability)
✓ Low (03): The event may occur (21% to 40% probability)
✓ Medium (05): The event is likely to occur (41% to 60% probability)
✓ High (07): The event will probably occur (61% to 80% probability)
✓ Very High (09): The event will most likely occur (81% or higher probability)

46
 + / - IMPACT ON PROJECT OBJECTIVES

Scale for Impact

Rating Interpretation
10 Project failure
9 Over budget by 40% or project delayed by 40%
8 Over budget by 30% to 40% or project delayed by 30% to 40%
7 Over budget by 20% to 30% or project delayed by 20% to 30%
6 Over budget by 10% to 20% or project delayed by 10% to 20%
5 Slightly over budget
4 Large reduction of time or cost reserves
3 Medium reduction of time or cost reserves
2 Small reduction of time or cost reserves
1 No real impact

47
Probability and impact matrix. A probability and impact matrix is a grid for mapping the
probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs.
Ratings are assigned to risks based on their assessed probability and impact.

Risk ID Risk Name Probability (P) Impact (I) Risk Score Ranking/
(P*I) Rating
1 Landslide 1 9 ?? ??
2 Winds 7 5 ?? ??
3 No Trucks 3 4 ?? ??
4 Storms 5 6 ?? ??
5 Supplies 1 8 ?? ??
6 Illness 2 2 ?? ??

Discuss: Can organization assess a risk separately based on each objective (like Scope,
time, cost) by having separate probability and impact matrix?

48
 + / - IMPACT ON PROJECT OBJECTIVES
8 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 Top
7 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 Risk
Probability
6 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
4 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
3 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Watch
List Impact
Key
Probability more then 8 (Consider as fact) Forwarded to WBS
Risks should definitely move into Quantitative Risk analysis process and/or
Responses process (High risk)
Risks may need to forwarded to Quantitative analysis process and/or Responses
process (Medium risk)
49
Risk to Simple Document (Low risk, Watch list)
 THREAT OPPORTUNITY

Prepare strategies for threats (negative) as ESCALATE ESCALATE

well as opportunities (positive) and for
individual project risks and overall project
risk. AVOID EXPLOIT

TRANSFER SHARE

MITIGATE ENHANCE

ACCEPT ACCEPT

50
Sl Name of the risk
Description of Strategy
no Response Strategy
1 Remove a work package or activity from the project
2 Assign a team member to frequently visit the seller's manufacturing facilities to learn
about problems with deliveries as early as possible
3 Move a work package to a date when a more experienced resource is available to be
assigned to the project
4 Begin negotiation for the equipment earlier than planned so as to secure a lower price
5 Outsource a work package so as to gain an opportunity
6 Notify management that there could be a cost increase if a risk occurs because no
action in being taken to prevent the risk
7 Remove a troublesome resource from the project
8 Provide a team member who has limited experience with additional training
9 Train the team on conflict resolution strategies
10 Outsource difficult work to a more experienced company
11 Ask the client to handle some of the work
12 Prototype a risky piece of equipment
13 Notify the PMO that the testing software needed for the project could be used by
three other IT groups if the enterprise solution is purchased

Answer Options for Threats: Avoid, Mitigate, Transfer, Accepts, Escalate

51
Answer Options for Opportunities: Exploit, Enhance, Share, Accepts, Escalate
Risk Register
Threats and Opportunities Root Risk Potential Triggers Category
Cause Risk Effect Cause Owner Responses

Overall Labor May call Labor will not Wages Project TBD Labor High
Project dispute strike come to work Issues Manager Rally
Risk

Risk per activity

A
B
C
D
E

52
Residual risk: Risk that remaining after risk responses have been implemented
(after avoided/exploited, mitigated/enhanced, transferred/shared, escalated).
This risk are accepted and reviewed throughout project.
Contingency Plan: Plans describing specific actions that will be taken if
opportunity/threat occurs
Fallback Plans: A secondary contingency plan, in case the contingency plan
does not work or is not effective.
Contingency Reserves: Time and cost reserves to deal with uncertainty
Risk Owner: Own the risk response/carry out risk response
Risk Action owner: A person assigned by the risk owner to implement
preapproved risk responses
Risk trigger: Event that trigger the contingency response
Secondary Risks: New risks that result from the
implementation of the risk response plans for
the primary risks

53
 Questions about Change Typical Answers

Who can propose a change? Roles are assigned

A change is proposed or an event

What exactly constitutes a change? changes one of the project
Use a change baselines or measures
management plan to
set a process and What is the impact of the change on project
Recommend evaluation method
assigned roles for objectives?
change
What are steps to evaluate a change
Required steps per quality policy
request before approving or rejecting it?
Who has the authority to approve various Change control board, other
types and levels of change? approvals
When a change request is approved, what
project documents will record the next Change log
steps (actions)?
How will you monitor these actions to Quality metrics, RAM/RACI charts,
confirm completion and quality? information radiators
54
55