UNIT 5: Elementary probability

Aims and objectives: At the end of this unit, the student will be able to:
 Define what is meant by probability and measure of uncertainty.
 Determine probability of events of an experiment of various forms.
 use the known probabilities of events in understanding and interpreting various related
phenomena
 Make inferential investigation applying standard statistical theory to evaluate the accuracy and
reliability of good ness of estimates or to evaluate the level of confidence use in any hypothesis
test in making various kinds of erroneous decisions based on a sample of observations about the
population of which the sample is taken. Therefore at this level you are required at least to
determine the probability of an event of an experiment applying any one or the other of the
counting methods.

Notation: The probability of an event E (the numerical information for the occurrence of an
event E) written as P (E) read as the probability of event E that is always expressed by a number
between 0 and 1 inclusively i.e. for any event E, we must have 0 P (E) 1.

Introduction: You will be introduced the basic terminologies in probability and then you will see
various methods of counting to get the number of elements in an event of an experiment the first
of which is listing methods, and then you will see how the counting principles are developed.
You are required to practice listing method of counting well and try to convince yourself that this
method is tiresome, boring and time wasting in order to realize the essentiality of the counting
principles. Though listing method of counting is boring and tiresome it gives you clear idea of
the number of elements in an event. So before you try to use the principles you better use listing
method of counting to get the number of elements in an event of a given experiment,

Basic terminologies
Definition: In probability the process of obtaining out comes is said to be an experiment, and a set
of outcomes of an experiment is called an event, usually denoted by capital letters A,B,C,D,E
and so on.
Example1: - If we roll a fair die on a flat surface and observe the number that appears on the
upper face of the die, then rolling a die is an experiment, and if the die showed up a “2” we say

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 the outcome of a “2” has occurred or an event “{2}” has happened similarly an event of odd
number has happened if the die showed up either a “1” a”3” or a”5” and we can write the event
as {1,3,5}.

Definition: In an exp. a set of outcomes which cannot be broken down any further is called simple
event and a combination of simple events is called compound event or an event which can be
decomposed in to at least two or more simple events is called compound event.
Example2:- In an experiment of rolling a fair die on a flat surface and observe the number that
appears up, then E1= {2}, E2 = {3}, E3 = {5} are examples of simple events and E4 = {1,3,5} is
example of compound event.
Definition: In an experiment, the set consisting of all possible outcomes each of which cannot be
broken down any further is called sample space or possibility set and the members in a sample
space are called sample points.

Example3: In an experiment of rolling fair die, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

In an experiment of tossing a fair 5-cent coin the sample space is S = {H,T}
Note:- Any subset of a sample space of an experiment in an event of that experiment.

Definition: In an experiment, if each outcome appears about equally often when the number of
trials of the experiment is very large then the outcomes are said to be equally likely outcomes.
Example4: In tossing a fair 5-cent coin on a flat surface and observe the face that appears up.
There are two possible outcomes “H” or “T” which are equally likely.
Example5: In rolling a fair die on a flat surface and observe the number that appears up. Then
each member of the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} are equally likely.
Example6: If slips of paper are numbered 1,2,3,4 or 5 placed in a box and one slip is with drawn
at random, then the possible outcomes a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 are equally likely.

Counting methods
Listing method: If we have an experiment in which we know the possible outcomes are equally
likely, to list all the elements of the sample space of the experiment and to get the number of
possible outcomes which cannot be decomposed any further, we sometimes sketch a tree diagram
for the outcome of the experiment.

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 Example1: In an exp. of tossing a fair coin and rolling regular die at the same time, list the
elements of the sample space.
Sol.:
Coin die Coin die
1 1
2 2
H 3 T 3
4 4
5 5
6 6

Hence the sample space U is given as

U = { (H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5),
(T, 6)} i.e. n(U) = 12 = 2 6

Example2: A helicopter service connecting two airports has five Pilots and three helicopters. In
how many different ways can one pilot and one helicopter be assigned to a job?
Sol.: Let we label the five pilots by P1,P2,P3,P4 and P5, the three helicopters by h1, h2,h3 then a tree
diagram for the outcome is as follows

P1 h1 P2 h1
h2 h2
h3 h3

P3 h1 P4 h1 P5 h1
h2 h2 h2
h3 h3 h3

Hence he sample space U is given by U = {(P1, h1), (P2, h2),…… ,(P5, h3)}
i.e. n(U) = 15 = 5 3
Example 3: A quiz consists of 3 true-false questions. An unprepared student must guess at each
one. If the guesses will be random, what are the different possible answers the student can give?

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 Sol: The possible answers the student can give are TTT, TTF, TFT, TFF, FTT, FTF, FFT, FFF.
Which are the member of the sample space i.e U= {TTT, TTF, TFT, TFF, FTT, FTF, FFT, FFF} and
n(U) = 8 = 2 2 2

Example 4: From a bucket containing six identical balls except in color, where three are white, two
are black and one is red, two balls are drawn at random. In how many different ways can this be
done?
Sol.: - Name the whites as W1, W2, W3 the blacks as B1, and B2 and the red as R1 then the tree
diagram for the outcome of this experiment is as follows.
W2 W3
W3 B1
W1 B1 W2 B2
B2 R1
R1
B1 B1 B2
W3 B2 R1 B2 R1
R1

Hence U = {W1W2, W1W3, W2W3, W1B1, W1W2, W1R1, W1B1, W2B2, W2R1, W3B1, W3R1, B1B2,
B1R1, B2R1} and n(U) = 15
Example5: How many three-digit numerals can be written using the digits 3,4,5,6 if each is used at
most once in each numeral?
U = {345, 346, 354, 356, 364, 365, 435, 436, 453, 456, 463, 465, 534, 536, 543, 546, 563, 564,
634, 635, 645, 643, 653, 654}i.e. n(U) = 24
Exercise: Determine the number of elements of the sample space of the experiments given below
by listing the elements of the sample space.

1. A pair of regular tetrahedron each of their faces painted, with their 1st face Green, 2nd face yellow,
3rd face red and 4th face black they are then tossed on a flat surface at the same time.
2. 9 cards each bearing numerals exactly one of 1,2,3…or 9 are placed in a box and one card is
drawn at random together with rolling a fair die at the same time.

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3. From a box containing 4 white and 3 black balls all-identical except in color two balls are drawn
at random. In how many of them an outcome consists of both white, both black. One black and one
white.
4. Five cards each bearing numerals s exactly one of 1,2,3,4 or 5 are placed in a box and two cards
are drawn one by one with replacement and write the numerals from left to right. In how many of the
outcomes do the unit digit larger than the tens digit.

Fundamental principle of counting

Multiplication Rule: If a selection consists of two steps, the 1 st of which can be made in m
different ways and for each of these the 2 nd selection can be made in n different ways then the whole
selection one offer the other can be made in m n different ways.

Generalized multiplication rule: If a selection consists of K steps, the 1st of which can be made in
n, different ways for each of these the 2nd can be made in n2 different ways and soon, for each of
these the Kth selection can be made in nK different ways, then the whole selection one after the other
can be made in n1 n2 ---- nk different ways.

Example1: How many two digit numerals can be written by choosing the ten’s digit from
A={1,3,5,7,9} and the units digit from B= {2,4,6,8}

Sol.: The Selection Consists of two steps where the 1 st can be made in 5 different ways for the ten’s
digits and for each of these the 2 nd can be made in 4 different ways for the units digit, Hence the
whole selection one after the other can be made in 5x4 different ways. i.e. there are 20 two digit
numerals. i.e. m = 5 and n = 4

Example 2 How many two letter word in a consonant –vowel pair can be written in English letter
alphabet whether it gives meaning or not.

Sol.: The 1st selection (the Consonants) can be made in 21 different ways and for each of these the
2nd selection (the vowels) can be made in 5 different ways, then one after the other the whole
selection can be made in 21 5 = 105 different ways. i.e. There are 105 two letter word in a consonant
vowel pair can be written , i.e m = 21 and n=5.

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 Example 3: Suppose a library has 6 different mathematics books 5 different Economics books and
8 different Accounting books that are to be given to a student one book from each kind. In how
many ways can a student be given?

Sol.: n1 = 6, n2 = 5 and n3 = 8 a student can be given in 6 5 8 = 240 different ways

Example 4: a) Suppose there are a choice of 6 body styles, 4 engine and 8 colors available for a
new car buyer, in how many different ways can he choose the body style, the engine and the color
for his car.
b) If the buyer also have a choice of car with or without automatic transmission and
with or without air conditioning. How many different choices does he have?
Sol.: a) n1 = 6, n2 = 4 and n3 = 8 then there are n1 n2 n3 = 6 4 8 = 192 different choices available
for the new car buyer.
b) n1 = 6, n2 = 4 and n3 = 8 n4 = n5 = 2 then there are
n1 n2 n3 n4 n5 = 6 4 8 2 2 = 768 different choices available for the new car buyer.
Example 5: If a test consists of 5 multiple choice questions each permitting 4 possible answers
and 3 true false questions. In how many ways can unprepared student mark his paper with one
answer to each question?
Sol.: n1 = n2 = n3 = n4 = n5 = 4 and n6 = n7 = n8 = 2. Then the unprepared student can mark on his
paper randomly in 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 = 8192 different ways.

Exercise
1. How many two letter word in a consonant- vowel pair can be written whether it gives meaning or
not from the letter of the word a) DOGMATIC b) COMPUTERS c) NUMERICAL.

2. A group of 20 dancers consists of 12 boys and 8 girls. A single couple consists of one boy and
one girl. In how many different ways can these couples be formed?

3. In a decimal system of notation, how many four-digit numbers can be written?

4. How many different three digit whole number can be written using the digit 1,2,3…9 if
a) digit may be repeated in a whole number b. each digit is used at most once in each number

5.How many two letter word in a one consonant and one vowel pair can be written using the
English letters whether it gives meaning or not.

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 Principle of permutation
Definition: For non- negative integer n, “n!” read as n factorial defined as n! = 1 2 x …x n and
0! = 1
Example1: 3! = 1 2 3 = 6 4! = 1 2 3 4 = 24 5! = 1 2 3 4 5 = 120
Definition: In general, if m objects are selected from a set of n objects then any particular
arrangement of these objects is called permutation.
The Principle of Permutation:
1. The number of permutation of m objects selected from a set of n distinct objects denoted

by nPm or P(n,m) and is given by

n!
n Pm =
(n − m) !
2. In particular the number of permutation of n objects from a set of n distinct objects in
P = n! = 1 2 … n
n n

3. The number of permutations of n objects consisting of groups of which n1 are alike and
are the 1st kind n2 are alike and a second kind and so on nk are alike and a kth kind is given by

where n = n1 + n2 + … + nk
n!
n1 ! . n2 ! … nk !
Example2: Find the number of permutation of the letters a, b, c, d taking a) 2 b) 3 c) 4
of them at a time
Sol.: a. b.
4! 24 4! 24
4 P2 = = = 12 4 P3 = = = 24
(4 − 2)! 2 (4 − 3) ! 1
c.
4! 24
4 P4 = = = 24
( 4 − 4) ! 1
Example3: In how many different ways can an association of 50 members choose a president, vice
president and secretary if no one can be chosen for two of it at a time and every one can be chosen
for any one of it.
Solution: n = 50, m = 3 then
50 ! 50!
50 P3 = = = 50 × 49 × 48 = 117 .600
( 50 − 3 ) ! 47 !

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Example4: Find the number of permutation of the letter of the word “Statistics”.
Sol.: Totally there are 10 letters in the word “Statistics” out of which there are 3s’s, 3t’s, 1a, 2i’s and

1c. So the number of permutations of the letter of the word Statistics is

10!
= 50, 400
3! 3! 1! 2! 1!
Example5: In how many ways can 5 people be seated on a) straight bench b) circular bench if
i) 5 seats are available ii) 4 seats are available
Sol.: a) i) 5! = 120 a) ii) 5 4 3 = 60
b) i) (5 – 1)! = 24
b) ii) 3 2 1 = 6

Exercise
1.How many i) five digit numeral ii) four digit numeral can be written using the digit 1,2,5,8,9, if
a) a digit may be repeated in a numeral b) a digit is used at most once in a numeral

2. Find the number of permutations of the word “ACCOUNTANT”

3. Determine which of the following are true and which are false
a) 3 4! = 12! b) 4! 5! = 20! c) d) (6 – 4)! = 2! e)
10! 7!
= 5! = 6!
2 7
f) 5! + 3! = 8! g) 9! = 9 8 7 6!

h)
12!
= 3!
4!
I) 4 + 3! = 7!
4. Find n if a) P (n, 2) = 240, b) P (n, 4) = 360
5.In how many different ways can we name the vertices of a hexagon using the letter A,B,C,D,E,F.

The principle of combination

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 The number of ways in which m objects can be selected from a set of n distinct objects denoted by

n
or c (n, m) or ncm and is given by
m
¿ n! P ( n , m)
righ
¿ c (n , m) = =
m! ( n − m ) ! m!
¿
¿
(¿ ) ¿
¿
¿

Note: A combination of n different objects taking m at a time is a selection of m out of the n objects
with no attention is given to the order of arrangement.

Example1: Find the number of combinations of the letters A, B, C, D, E, F taking three at a time.
Sol.: n = 6, m = 3
6!
c ( 6 , 3) = = 20
3! 3!
Example2: In how many different ways can an association of 50 members select a committee of 3
members?
Sol.: n = 50, m = 3
50 ! 50 × 49 × 48
c ( 50 , 3 ) = = = 19 .600
3! ( 50 − 3 ) ! 6
Example3: Suppose a set consist of 10 elements how many of its subsets consist of 3 elements.
Sol.: n = 10, m = 3
10! 10 × 9 × 8
c ( 10 , 3 ) = = = 120
3! 7! 6
Example4: Suppose 9 men and 6 women attend a meeting and if a reporter randomly select 3
attendees for interview. In how many ways can he select two of them women?

Sol.: c (9, 1) c (6, 2) = 9 15 = 135

Example 5: In how many ways can 12 different books are divided among three pupils so that each
receives 4 books
Sol.: c (12, 4) c (8, 4) c (4, 4) = 495 70 1 = 3465
Note: For non-negative integers n and k with k n, we have the following properties, which can be
shown using the definition.
i. c (n , n) = c (n , 0) = 1 ii. c (n , 1) = c ( n , n-1) iii. c (n , k) = c ( n , n-k)
iv. c (n , k) = v. c (n , k) + c (n , k-1) = c ( n+1, k)
p (n , k )
k!

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 vi. c ( n , 0) + c (n , 1) + c (n , 2) + … + c ( n , n) = 2n
Exercise
1 .Suppose 8 men and 6 women have applied for a job; and if 3 applicants are randomly
Selected from this group in how many ways can the selected applicants being
a) all men b) all women c) 2 women and 1 man d) 2 men and 1 women

2. Suppose a box contains 7 white 5 black and 4 red balls all identical except in color. If three balls
are drawn at random. In how many ways can the balls drawn be?
a) all white b) all red c) all black
d) one from each color e) two white and one black f) 2 black and 1 red
g) two red and 1 white.
3. Find n if a) c (n, 3) = 120 b) c (n, 4) = 495
Summary: An experiment is a process that allows us to obtain the possible outcomes
1. An event is a set of possible outcome(s) or results of an experiment. A simple event is an
event, which cannot be broken down any further.
2. A Compound event is an amalgam or combination of simple event i.e., which can be
decomposed in to at least two simple events.
3. The sample space for all experiment consists of all possible simple events or sample space is a
set of all possible outcomes each of which cannot be broken down any further.
4. If a selection consists of two steps, the first of which can be made in m different ways and
for each of these the second selection can be made in n different ways then one after the other the
whole selection can be made in m n different ways. [Fundamental Counting Principle]
5. If a selection consists of k steps, the first of which can be made in n1 different ways and
for each of these the second can be made in n2 different ways and so on, for each of these the kth
selection can be is nk different ways, then the whole selection one after the other can be made in
n1 n2 … nk different ways. [Generalized Counting Principle]
6. The number of permutation of k objects selected from a set of n distinct objects is given

by . In particular the number of permutation of n objects taken all

n!
P (n , k ) =
(n − k ) !
together in P (n , n) = n!. [Principle of Permutation]

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 7. The number of ways in which k objects can be selected from a set of n distinct objects is

. [Principle of Combination]
n!
c (n , k ) =
k ! (n − k ) !
Definition of probability of an event

Introduction: In the previous unit you have seen methods of counting in finding the number of
elements in an event as well as in a sample space of an experiment, which was the ground to
determine the probability of an event. There are two approaches of the definitions of probability,
namely the classical definition of Probability and the relative frequency definition of Probability’
But we will be interested and wok mainly with the classical definition of probability. You will see
different techniques of determining the probability of an event, but in any case you need to apply the
counting methods discussed in the previous unit. Before we define what probability of an event of
an experiment let us introduce the following notation.

Notation: The probability of event E written as P(E) read as the probability of event E that is always
expressed by a number between 0 and 1 inclusively i.e. For any event E, we have 0 P (E) 1.
Note: The probability P of an event E is the numerical information for the occurrence of an event E.

Classical Definition of Probability: Suppose in an experiment there are n equally likely out

comes and if an event E can happen in m of these then

m n (E)
P (E) = =
n n ( u)
Example1: In rolling a regular die what is the probability of getting an even number on the upper
face.
Sol.: When a regular die is rolled, the number that faces up can be any one of the six equally likely
out comes. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 and three of these are even. Hence n (U) = 6, n (E) = 3, where
E = {2, 4, 6} and u = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, } P (E) =
3 1
=
6 2
Example 2: In rolling a pair of regular dice, what is the probability of scoring a sum to be

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 a) 8 b) 9
c) 10
d) 11
e) 12

Sol.: n (U) = 36
a) E1 = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (6, 3), (6, 2)} then P (E1) = 5/36
b) E2 = {(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 0)} then P (E2) = 4/36
c) E3 = {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)} then P (E3) = 3/36
d) E4 = {(6, 6), (6, 5), (5, 4), (6, 0)} then P (E4) = 2/36
e) E5 = {(6, 6)} then P (E5) = 1/36

Example 3: five cards bearing numerals 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 are placed in a box and two are with
drawn at random. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers shown on the cards drawn is
a) 4 b) 8 c) 16
d) an even number e) an odd number

Sol.: U = {(1, 3), (1, 5), (1, 7), (1, 9), (3, 5) (3, 7), (3, 9), (5, 7), (5, 9), (7, 9)}. n(U) = 10
1 2 1
a ) P ( E1 ) = b) P ( E 2 ) = c ) P ( E3 ) =
10 10 10
d ) P ( E4 ) = 1 e ) P ( E5 ) = 0
Where E1 = {(1, 3)}, E2 = {(1, 7) , (3, 5)}, E3 = {(7, 9)}, E4 = u and E5 = {}

Relative Frequency Definition of Probability (Empirical Approximation of Probability)

If an experiment is performed n times and out of which m times an event E occurs then the ratio

is called the observed relative frequency of the event for those n repeated experiments and as
m
n

the number of trials of the experiment increases the observed relative frequency of event E
m
n
approaches to the probability of event E, Hence

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 Relative Frequency Definition of Probability: - In performing an experiment large number of
times in which an event E actually occurs then

Number of Times E Occured

P (E ) =
Number of Times experiment was Reapeated

Example 4: In an experiment of tossing a fair coin, if 1000 tosses of the coin result 523 head, then

the observed relative frequency of head is . If another 1000 toss results 489 heads
523
= 0. 523
1000

then the observed relative frequency of heads is . Then the observed relative
489
= 0. 489
1000

frequency of heads in the total of 2000 tosses is .

523 + 489 1012
= = 0 . 506
2000 2000
According to the statistical definition, continuing in this manner, the observed relative frequency of
heads gets closer and closer to the number called the probability of a head in a single toss of the coin
and that is 0.5.
Example 5: How many five-digit numerals can be written using the digits 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 if no
digit is repeated in each numeral? If each numeral is equally likely to be chosen, what is the
probability that the number chosen a) is odd b) is even c) has unit digit is 9
d) is greater than 50,000 e) less than 40,000

Sol.: The number of five digit numerals that could be written is P (5, 5) = 5! = 120
a) 1, since all the digit used to write the numerals are odd the unit digit is certainly odd and
thus all the five digit numerals are odd.
b) 0, since the unit digit can never be even, the first digit numeral can never be even, thus it is an
impossible event.

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c. , since the number of the five digit numerals whose unit digit is 9 is 4! = 24 and the
1
5

probability of this event is .

24 1
=
120 5
d. , since for the number to be greater than 50,000 the 10,000th digit has to be selected only
3
5
from 6, 7 or 9 and thereafter any of the numbers 1, 3, 5, 7 or 9 which was not already selected can
be selected once. Hence there are 3 4 3 2 1 = 72 different numbers greater than 50,000. So the

probability of his event is .

72 3
=
120 5
e. , since there are 2 4 3 2 1 = 48 different five digit numerals less than 40,000. So the
2
5

probability of this event is .

48 2
=
120 5

Example 6: From a jar containing 4 white, 3 red and 2 black balls all identical except color, three
balls are drawn at random. How many different outcomes are there? What is the probability that an
outcome consists of
a. 3 white balls b. 3 red balls c. 2 white and 1 red balls d. 2 red and 1 white balls
e. 1 white and 1 red balls f. 2 red and 1 black g. 1 red and 2 black h. 1 one from each color.

Sol.: Totally there are 9 balls. Hence the number of possible outcomes of drawing 3 balls
randomly is c (9, 3) = 84. Thus
a. P (3W) = b. P (3R) =
c (4 , 3 ) 4 1 c (3 , 3) 1
= = =
c (9 , 3 ) 84 21 c (9 , 3 ) 84

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 c. P (2W , 1R) =
c (4 , 2) × c (3 , 1) 6 × 3 18 3
= = =
c (9 , 3 ) 84 84 14
d. P (1W , 2R) =
c (4 , 1) × c (3 , 2) 4×3 1
= =
c (9 , 3) 84 7
e. P (1W , 2B) =
c (4 , 1) × c (2 , 2) 4 1
= =
c (9 , 3) 84 21
f. P (2R , 1B) =
c (3 , 2) × c (2 , 1 ) 6 1
= =
c (9 , 3 ) 84 14
g. P (1R , 2B) =
c (3 , 1) × c (2 , 2 ) 3 1
= =
c (9 , 3) 84 28
h. P (1W , 1R , 1B) =
c (4 , 1) × c (3 , 1)× c (2 , 1) 4 × 3 × 2 2
= =
c (9 , 3 ) 84 7

Exercise:
1. A committee consisting of 5 persons is to be chosen randomly from a group of 6 men and
4 women. What is the probability that exactly 2 of the members of the committee are women?
2. If 3 light bulbs are chosen at random from 10 bulbs of which 3 are defective then what is
the probability that a. None of them is defective b. all are defective c. exactly one is defective
d. exactly two are defective e. at least two are non- defective.
3. If a committee of 3 persons is to be randomly chosen from a group of 4 men and 2 women. What
is the probability that exactly one of the members of the committee is a woman?
4. Suppose a two-letter word is a one vowel and one consonant pair is written from the letter of the
word “GONDAR”. Whether or not it gives meaning what is the probability that a randomly chosen
word is either “DO” or “GO”.
5. A three digit whole number is written using the digit 1, 2, 3, …,9. If a digit is used at most once
in a whole number, then what is the probability that a randomly chosen number is divisible by 2?
Properties of probability of event
Definition: In an experiment if it is certain for an event to occur it is called sure event and if it is
certain for an event not to occur it is called an impossible event.

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Note: In an experiment any event E is either sure event, impossible event or somewhere in
between. Therefore the probability of any event E can be expressed as 0 P (E) 1 where the
probability of sure event is 1 and the probability of an impossible event is 0. i.e. P(S) = 1,
P() = 0 and 0 < P(E) < 1 for any event E such that E S and E and the sum of the probabilities of all
the sample points is 1.
Example1: In rolling a fair die on a flat surface, an event of getting a “7” on the upper face is an
impossible event and its probability is 0. While an event of getting a number between 0 and 7 on the
upper face is a sure event, its probability is 1. But the probability of an event E which is a proper
subset of the sample space is between 0 and 1, provided that E .
Definition: In an experiment two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive event iff they
cannot occur simultaneously.
Note: In an experiment mutually exclusive events are pair wise disjoints whose union is a subset of
the sample space of the experiment.
Example: In rolling a fair die, the event of getting the set of prime number E1 and the set of
composite number E2 on the upper face are two mutually exclusive events since E1 = {2, 3, 5} and E2
= {4, 6} cannot occur simultaneously.
Definition: In an experiment two events are said to be complementary iff they are disjoint whose
union gives the sample spaces.
Rule of complementary events: If E and E are two complementary events of an experiment then
P(E) + P(E) = 1
Example 3: In rolling a regular die, what is the probability that the face appears up shows not
composite number?
Sol.: U = {1,2,3,4,5,6} Let E = {4,6} the = {1,2,3,5} P(E) =
Ē

2 2 4
and P( Ē) = 1 - P ( E) = 1 - =
6 6 6
Example 4: In tossing a fair 5-cent coin three times, what is the probability of achieving at least
one head in the three tosses?

16
Sol.: U = (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}. Let E be an event consisting of no
head i.e. E = {TTT} then E is an event consisting of at least one head. Since P(E) =

1 1 7
and P( Ē) = 1 - P ( E) = 1 - =
8 8 8
Example 5: Suppose a family plan to have four children. What is the probability that not all the
children have the same sex if it is equally likely for a son or daughter to be born?
Sol.: n (U) = 16, let E be an event that the children are all sons or all daughters i.e.
E = {SSSS , DDDD} then P(E) =
2 2 14 7
and P( Ē ) = 1 - P ( E) = 1 - = =
16 16 16 8
Definition: Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other. Several events are similarly independent if the occurrence
of any one does not affect the probabilities of the occurrence of the other. If two events are not
independent then they are said to be dependent. Similarly several events are not independent then
they are said to be dependent.
Example 6: In rolling a pair of fair dice. Let E 1 be an event consisting of prime number that
appears on the upper face of the first die and E2 be an event consisting of composite number that
appears on the upper face of the second die, then since the occurrence of E 1 does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of E2, E1 and E2 are said to be independent events.
Example 7: Suppose a box contains 10 balls all identical except in color where 6 of them are white
and 4 of them black. If one ball is drawn randomly and is obtained to be white, without replacement

if a second ball is drawn randomly then the probability that a second ball to be white is , to be
5
9

black is . But the probability that a first ball to be white was , to be black was
4 6 4
9 10 10
Hence the two events are dependent events, since the occurrence of one affects the probability of the
occurrence of the other.
Note: If the balls were drawn with replacement, the two events would be independent since the
probabilities of a second event to occur would not be affected by the occurrence of the first.

17
Example 8: If 3 light bulbs are chosen at random from a dozen of bulbs of which 4 are defective,
what is the probability that a) none is defective c) 1 defective and 2 non defective
b) all defective d) 2 defective and 1 non defective

Sol.: there are c (12, 3) ways of choosing 3 bulbs from 12 i.e. 220
a)
c (8 , 3) 56 14
= =
220 220 55

b)
c (4 , 3) 4 1
= =
220 220 55
c) d)
c (4 , 1) × c (8 , 2) 4 ×28 28 c (4 , 2) × c (8 , 1) 12 12
= = = =
220 220 55 220 220 55
Example 9: Suppose from a box containing 7 white and 3 black balls, we draw 2 balls turn by turn
without replacement. What is the probability of drawing 1 white and 1 black ball?
Sol.: The probability of drawing 1st white and then 2nd black is . The
7 3 21
× =
10 9 90

probability of drawing 1st black and 2nd white is . Hence the total probability of
3 7 21
× =
10 9 90
drawing 1 white and 1 black is

21 21 42 7 c (7 , 1) × c (3 , 1) 7 × 3 7
+| = = or P(1w , 1b) = = =
90 90 90 15 c (10 , 2) 45 15
Exercise
1. Suppose 30 men and 20 women are attending a conference and if 3 participants are
randomly selected to report on the discussion, find the probability that at least one is a woman.
2. Suppose a test consists of 10 true – false questions. An unprepared student gives the answer by
guess randomly. What is the probability that he gives
a) all correct answer b) no correct c) 5 correct answer
d) at least one correct answer .

18
 3. Among the 12 nominees for the board of directors of a farm cooperative, there are 8 men and 4
women. In how many ways can the members select any two of the nominees as directors? What is
the probability that the selection consists of a) both men b) both women c) one man and one woman.

Multiplication rule of probability

In an experiment the probability that two independent events E1 and E2 occurring is given by
P(E1 E2) = P(E1) P(E2)
In general the probabilities of n independent events E1, E2, … , En happening is given by
P(E1 E2 … E2) = P(E1) P(E2) , …, P(En)
Example 1: Suppose a die is thrown twice, what is the probability of the 1st throw being less than 3
and the 2nd throw being less than 4.
Sol.: Let E1 be an event of the 1st throw being less than 3, and E2 be an event of the 2nd throw being

less than 4. Then P (E1 E2) = P (E1) P (E2) =

2 3 1
. =
6 6 6
Example 2: Suppose one box contains 5 black and 3 white balls and a second box contains 4 black
and 6 white balls if one ball is drawn from each box, what is the probability that
a) both are black b) both are white c) 1 white and 1 black
Sol.: a) let E1 be an event of being black from the 1st box and E2 be an event of being black from

the 2nd box. Then E1 and E2 are independent. P (E1 E2) = P (E1) . P (E2) =
5 4 1
. =
8 10 4
b) E1 is then an event of being white from the 1st box and E2 is an event of being white from
the 2nd box. Then E1 and E2 are also in dependent events
P (E1 E2) = P (E1) . P (E2) =
3 6 9
. =
8 10 40
c) We get an event of 1 white and 1 black if either we get an event of being white from the 1st
box and black from the 2nd box or an event of being black from the 1st box and white from the 2nd
box. Thus P (E1 E2 ) (E1 E2) = P (E1 E2) + P (E1 E2) = P(E1) . P (E2) + P (E1) . P (E2)

19
 = or
5 6 3 4 21
. + . =
8 10 8 10 40
P (1w , 1b) = 1 – [P (E1 E2) + P (E1 E2) = or
10 9 21
1 −
40(+
40
=
40 )
P (1w , 1b) =
c (5 , 1) × c (6 , 1) + c (3 , 1) × c ( 4 , 1) 30 + 12 21
= =
c ( 8 , 1) × c (10 , 1) 80 40
Example 3: What is the probability of getting two consecutive kings if two cards are drawn at
random from a deck of 52 playing cards if
a) the 1st card is replaced before the 2nd card is drawn
b) the 1st card is not replaced before the 2nd card is drawn

Sol.: a) There are 4 kings among the 52 cards. Thus the probability of the 1st king and 2nd king to be

drawn is (the two events are independent)

4 4 1
. =
52 52 169

b) If the 1st card drawn is king and not replaced then there are only 3 kings remained among the rest

51 cards the probability of the 1st king and 2nd king is

4 3 1
. =
52 51 221
Example4: If A and B are events such that P(A) = 0.7 ad P(B) = 0.4 and P(A B) = 0.2 are A and B
independent event?
Sol.: Since P(A) P(B) = 0.7 0.4 = 0.28 and P(A B) = 0.2 we have P(A B) P(A) . P(B) therefore A
and B are not independent events.
Exercise
1 .If P(A) = 0.8 , P(B) = 0.25 and P(A B) = 0.2 then are A and B independent vents?
2 . Find the probability that a “6” turning up once in the two tosses of a fair die.
3. Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that
they are both pictured a) if cards are drawn with replacement b) if cards are drawn without
replacement

20
4. Find the probability of three consecutive 2’s turning up in rolling a fair die three times.
Conditional probability
When two events are dependent, the concept of conditional probability is used to show the
occurrence of the related events.
Definition: If A and B are two dependent events then the probability of event B occurring given
that event A has occurred denoted by P (B\A) read as probability of event B given that event A has
occurred is called the conditional probability of B given that A has occurred given by

P (B ∩ A)
P ( B \A ) =
P (A)
Note: If A and B are independent events then P (B\A) must equal P (B) since the occurrence of A
should not affect P (B). Hence P (A B) = P (A) . P (B) if A and B are independent events and
P (A B) = P (A) . P (B\A)
= P (B) . P (A\B) if A and B are dependent events

Example1: Suppose there are 30 applicants for a job in a certain organization, which are cross-
classified by their sex and color.
Black White
Male 12 8
Female 4 6

Assume that each applicant is equally likely to be chosen for a job. What is the probability that the
applicant chosen is
a) black b) white c)male d) female e) male and black
f) female and black g) male and white h) female and white

Sol.: Let B stands for the set of black applicant W stands for white applicant M stands for male
applicant and F stands for female applicant
a) P (B) = b) P (W) =
12 + 4 8 8+ 6 7
= =
30 15 30 15
c) P (M) = d) P (F) =
12 + 8 2 4 +6 1
= =
30 3 30 3

21
e) P (M B) = g) P (M W) =
12 8
30 30
f) P (F B) = h) P (F W) =
4 6
30 30
Example2: In example 1 above find the probability that an applicant chosen is
a) male given that black is chosen b) male given that white is chosen
c) female given that black is chosen d) female given that white is chosen

Sol.: a) P (M/B) =
P (M ∩ B) 12 8 12 3
= = =
P (B) 30 15 16 4
b) P (M/W) =
P (M ∩ W ) 8 15 4
= . =
P (W ) 30 7 7
c) P (F/B) =
P (F ∩ B ) 4 15 1
= . =
P ( B) 30 8 4
d) P (F/W) =
P (F ∩ W ) 6 15 3
= . =
P (W ) 30 7 7
Addition rule of probability
In an experiment the probability of one or the other events A or B happening is given by
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A B).
If A and B are mutually exclusive then P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) since A B = ∅
and P (A B) = P ( ∅ ) = 0
In general if the probabilities of n mutually exclusive events E1, E2, … , En happening are
P1, P2, …, Pn respectively, then the probability of one or the other of the n mutually exclusive events
to occur is given by
P (E1 E2 …En) = P (E1) + P (E2) + … + P (En) = P1 + P2 + …+ Pn
Example1: In throwing a pair of dice, what is the probability of achieving a sum between 6 and
10?

22
Sol.: Let E1 be an event achieving a sum 7 then E1 = {(1, 6), (1,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)} hence P

6
(E1) = , Let E2 be an event of achieving a sum 8 then E2 = {(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2)},
36

5
hence P (E2) = . Let E3 be an event achieving a sum 9 then E3 = {(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)}
36

4
hence P (E3) = since E1, E2 and E3 are mutually exclusive events we have
36
6 5 4 15 5
P (E1 E2 E3) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) = + + = =
36 36 36 36 12
Example2: 9 cards bearing numerals 1, 2, 3 …or 9 is placed in box and one card is withdrawn
randomly. What is the probability that the card drawn is numbered either an odd number or a
multiple of 3?
Sol.: Let E1 be an event of odd numbered to be drawn i.e.E1 = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} and
E2 be an event of multiple of 3 to be drawn i.e. E2 = {3, 6, 9} then
5 3 2 6 2
P (E1 E2) = P (E1) + P (E2) - P (E1E2 = + - = =
9 9 9 9 3
Example3: find the probability of drawing a black card or a king from a deck of 52 cards
randomly.
Sol.: Let E1 be the event of drawing a black card, then n (E1) = 26 and E2 be the event of drawing a
king then n (E2) = 4 where 2 of them are black.
26 4 2 28 7
P (E1 E2) = P (E1) + P (E2) - P (E1 E2) = + - = =
52 52 52 52 13
Exercise:
1. Find the probability of scoring a sum of 9 or 10 two tosses of a pair of fair dice.
2. Use addition rule and rule of complementary events to find a formula for the probability of not
getting either event A or event B.

Summary: 1. In performing an experiment large number of times that an event E actually occurs
then (Relative frequency Definition of probability)
2. Suppose in an experiment there are n equally likely out comes and if an event E can happen
in m of these then. [Classical Definition of Probability]

23
 3. Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously hence A B =
∅
4. Two events are A and B are complementary if they are mutually exclusive and their union
gives the sample space of the experiment and therefore P (A) + P (B) = 1
5. Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other. Several events are independent if the occurrence of any one does not
affect the probabilities of the occurrence of the others. If A and B are not independent then they are
said to be dependent. If A and B are independent events then
i. P (A B) = P (A). P (B).
ii. P (A B) = P (A) . P (B/A) = P (B) . P (A/B) If A and B are dependent
6. The probability of one or the other of two mutually exclusive events A and B happening is given
by P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) and the probability of one or the other of any two events A and B
happening is given by P (A B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A B)
7. The probability of one or the other of k mutually exclusive events A1, A2 … or Ak happening is
given by P (A1 A2 … Ak) = P (A1) + P (A2) + … + P (Ak).
8. The probability of any event E is given by the sum of the probabilities of the individual outcomes
comprising event E.
9. The probability of k in dependent events A1, A2 … Ak happening is given by P (A1 A2 … Ak) =
P (A1) . P (A2) . … . P (Ak).
10. If A and B are dependent events then the conditional probability of event A given that event B
has occurred written as P (A/B) provided P (B) ≠ 0. If events A and B are independent then P
(AB) =P (A).P (B)
Exercise : 1. Suppose there are 80 employees in a company classified by their academic
background and experience as shown below and if an employee is randomly selected to be a
chairperson of the employees association, then Find the probability that the selected person to have
a) experience below 10 years given that he (she) is graduate
b) experience below 10 years given that he (she) is not graduate
c) experience 10 years or above given that he (she) is graduate
d) experience 10 years or above given that he (she) is not graduate
Experience Academic Back ground
Graduate Non Graduate
Below 10 years 8 26

24
 10 years and above 22 24

2, Find the probability of scoring a sum of 9 or 10 two tosses of a pair of fair dice.

3. Use addition rule and rule of complementary events to find a formula for the probability of not
getting either event A or event B.

25