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C H A P T E R

10
Probability

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Objectives

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To understand the basic rules and notation of set theory.
To understand the basic concepts and rules of probability.
To use Venn diagrams, tree diagrams, and Karnaugh maps to determine
probabilities for compound events.
To understand and be able to apply the addition rule.
To introduce the idea of mutually exclusive events.
To review set notation and apply set notation to probability.
M
Uncertainty is involved in much of the reasoning we undertake every day of our lives. We
make decisions based on the chances of this or that happening. More formally, chances are
called probability. Some things which occur in the world can be predicted from our present
store of knowledge, such as the time of the next high tide. Other things such as whether a head
or tail will show when a coin is tossed, or the sex of a new baby are unpredictable. But even
though the particular outcome is uncertain, the results are not entirely haphazard. There is a
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pattern that emerges in the long run which enables us to assign a numerical probability to each
outcome, even though the individual outcome is unknown.
Probability has an everyday usage, giving some sort of certain
rough gradation between the two extremes of impossible no worries
and certain, as indicated in the diagram. probably
fair chance
maybe possibly
not likely
no way
impossible

287
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288 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

10.1 Random experiments and events

In general, a random experiment is one in which the outcome of a single trial is uncertain,
but is nonetheless an observable outcome. For example, consider the random experiment of
tossing a coin and noting whether a head (H ) or a tail (T ) appears uppermost. The outcome
observed must be either H or T, but on a particular toss it is not known which of H or T will be
observed. The outcome observed must be one of a known set of possible outcomes, and the set
of possible outcomes is called the sample space for the experiment. Set notation will be used
in listing all the elements in the sample space in set brackets with each element separated by a

E
comma. A single outcome of an experiment is often referred to as a sample point. For
example, the sample space for the tossing of a coin would be written as

{H, T }

where H indicates head and T indicates tail. Throughout this chapter the letter ε will be used to

described.
PL
denote the sample space.
For example, the following table lists the sample spaces for each of the random experiments

Random experiment

The number of brown eggs in a carton of 12 eggs

The result when two coins are tossed
The number of calls to your phone in the next two hours
The time, in hours, it takes to complete your homework
Sample space

ε = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)

ε = {HH, HT, TH, TT }
ε = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4. . . .}
ε = {t : t ≥ 0}
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The actual quantity of lemonade in a 1 litre bottle ε = {q : 0 ≤ q ≤ 1}

An event may consist of a single outcome, or it may be several outcomes. For example,
when rolling a die, the event of interest may be ‘getting a six’. In this case, since the event
consists of just one outcome, it is called a simple event. However, the event ‘getting an odd
number’ can be achieved by rolling a 1, a 3 or a 5. As there is more than one outcome which
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defines this event, it is called a compound event.

It is sometimes convenient to use set notation to list the elements of the event. In general we
use capital letters, A, B, C, . . . to denote sets. Naturally, the set which is associated with an
event will be a subset of the sample space. That is, every element of the set is also contained in
the sample space.
For example, the following table lists the experiments shown earlier and describes the
sample space and an event for each one.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 289

Sample space An event

The number of brown eggs in a carton of 12 eggs. ‘More than half brown’ = {7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

ε = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

The result when two coins are tossed ‘Two heads’ = {HH}

ε = {HH, HT, TH, TT }

‘Fewer than two phone calls’ = {0, 1}

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The number of calls to your phone in the next two
hours

ε = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, . . .}

The time in hours it takes to complete your homework ‘More than two hours’ = {t: t > 2}

ε = {t: t ≥ 0}

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The actual quantity of lemonade in a 1 litre bottle

ε = {q: 0 ≤ q ≤ 1}

Example 1
‘Less than half full’ = {q: 0 ≤ q < 0.5}

A bag contains 7 marbles numbered from 1 to 7 and a marble is withdrawn.

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a Give the sample space for this experiment.
b List the sample points (elements) of the event ‘a marble with an odd number is withdrawn’.

Solution
a {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7} b {1, 3, 5, 7}
SA

Some of the experiments given in this example are multi-stage experiments. That is, they are
concerned with the experiments which could be considered to take place in more than one
stage. For example, when considering the outcomes from tossing two coins we should consider
the possible outcomes in two stages: the outcome from coin 1, followed by the outcome from
coin 2. In such cases, it is helpful to list the elements of the sample space systematically by
means of a tree diagram.

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Example 2

Three coins are tossed and the outcomes noted. List the sample space for this experiment.

Solution
A tree diagram is constructed Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Sample point
to list the elements of the
First coin Second coin Third coin
sample space.
H HHH

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Each path along the branches
H
of the tree gives a sample T HHT
point. H
H HTH
Thus the required sample
T
space is ε = {HHH, HHT, T HTT

TTH, TTT}.

Exercise 10A
PL
HTH, HTT, THH, THT,

T
H

T
H

T
THH

THT

TTH

TTT
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Example 1
1 List the sample space for the toss of a coin.

2 List the sample space for the outcomes when a die is rolled.

3 Answer the following for a normal deck of playing cards:

How many cards are there?
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a
b How many suits are there?
c What are the suits called?
d Which suits are red and which suits are black?
e How many cards are there in each suit?
f Which cards are known as the ‘picture cards’?
g How many aces are there in the deck?
h How many ‘picture cards’ cards are there in the deck?
Example 2
4 List the sample spaces for the following experiments:
a Two balls are chosen from a bag containing two black and two red balls.
b A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled.
c Three students are chosen for a committee from a class of 10 male and 10 female
students, and the sex of each student noted.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 291

5 List the sample spaces for the following experiments:

a the number of picture cards in a hand of five cards
b the number of female children in a family with six children
c the number of female students on a committee of three students chosen from a class of
10 male and 10 female students

6 List the sample spaces for the following experiments:

a the number of cars which pass through a particular intersection in a day
b the number of people on board a bus licensed to carry 40 passengers

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c the number of times a die is rolled before a six is observed

7 List the outcomes (sample points) associated with the following events:
a ‘an even number’ when a die is rolled
b ‘more than two female students’ when three students are chosen for a committee from

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a class of 10 male and 10 female students
c ‘more than four aces’ when five cards are dealt from a standard pack of 52 cards

8 An experiment is defined as follows: A coin is tossed and the outcome observed. If the
coin shows a head it is tossed again, but if it shows a tail a die is rolled. Use a tree diagram
to list the sample space for the experiment.

9 A spinner is divided into four equal parts numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4. The spinner is spun
twice.
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a Use a tree diagram to list the sample space for the experiment.
b Circle the outcomes associated with the event ‘the sum of the numbers is equal to 6’.

10 Spinner A is divided into three equal parts which are numbered 1, 2 and 3. Spinner B is
divided into four equal parts which are numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4. Spinner A is spun, and the
result noted. Then spinner B is spun and the result noted.
SA

a Use a tree diagram to list the sample space for the experiment.
b List the outcomes associated with the event ‘same number shows on both spinners’.

11 A die is rolled twice and the number uppermost recorded.

a Use a tree diagram to list the sample space for the experiment.
b List the outcomes associated with the event ‘the first number is odd and the
second is even’.

12 Michael has a drawer containing three red, two black and seven white socks. He decides to
choose socks with his eyes closed until he has a pair of socks.
a Use a tree diagram to list the sample space for the experiment.
b What is the minimum number of socks he must draw in order to ensure he has a pair?

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13 Cassie deals cards from a pack of 52 until she has two of the same suit.
a Use a tree diagram to illustrate the event ‘a spade on the first and a heart on
the second’.
b What is the minimum number of cards she must deal in order to ensure she has two of
the same suit?

10.2 Determining empirical probabilities

In theory, every event has a true and constant probability or chance of occurring. The problem
is that strategies are needed to help to determine the value of that probability. Sometimes, the

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probability is assigned a value just on the basis of experiences. For example, a newspaper
sports journalist suggesting that Essendon has a 60% chance of winning its next game is
relying purely on his or her own experiences. Another journalist might well assign this
probability an entirely different value. Such probabilities are called subjective probabilities.

PL
In practice, many probabilities are estimated by experimentation, by performing the
random experiment leading to the outcome of interest many times and recording the results.
This information can then be used to estimate the chances of it happening again in the future.
Such probabilities are called empirical probabilities.
For example, consider the event ‘obtaining a head’ when a coin is tossed. Suppose one
tosses the coin many times and counts the number of times a head is observed. The proportion
of trials that resulted in a head is called the relative frequency of that event. That is:

relative frequency of a head occurring =

number of heads observed
number of trials
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The mathematics of probability recognises that in the long run the relative frequency of the
occurrence of a particular event will settle down to a constant value, the true value of the
probability. That is, if the number of trials, n, is sufficiently large, then the observed relative
frequency becomes close to the probability Pr(A), or
number of times the event occurs
Pr(A) ≈ for large n
number of trials
SA

This rule can be illustrated by repeating a simple experiment, such as the tossing of a coin,
many times. On one historical occasion in about 1900, English statistician Karl Pearson tossed
a coin 24 000 times, resulting in 12 012 heads and a relative frequency of 0.5005!

Example 3

Suppose that an actual observation of 100 rolls of two dice gave the following results:

Event Same numbers on the dice Different numbers on the dice

Number of occurrences 19 81

Use these results to estimate the probability of the same number appearing on both dice, and
different numbers appearing on both dice.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 293

Solution
We can calculate the proportion of the number of occurrences of each outcome to the
number of tosses. In this example we divide each of the results by 100:

Event Same numbers on the dice Different numbers on the dice

Relative frequency 0.19 0.81

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These proportions, or relative frequencies, are estimates of the chances of getting a particular
number of ‘doubles’ on two rolls of the dice. If this experiment was repeated, it would
generally be found that the results were slightly different. One might conclude that relative
frequency is not a very good way of estimating probability. Sometimes, however, experiments

Example 4
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are the only way to get at an unknown probability. One of the most valuable lessons to be
learnt is that such estimates are not exact. Our best estimates of the probabilities will result
from using as many trials as possible.

In order to investigate the probability that a drawing pin lands point up, Katia decides to toss it
50 times and to count the number of favourable outcomes, which turns out to be 33. Mikki
repeats the experiment, but she tosses the same drawing pin 100 times and counts 62
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favourable outcomes. What is Katia’s estimate of the probability of the drawing pin landing
point up? What is Mikki’s estimate? Which of these is the preferred estimate of the probability
from these experiments? Based on the information available, what would be the best estimate
of the probability?

Solution
33
From Katia’s information Pr(point up) ≈ = 0.66
SA

50
62
From Mikki’s information Pr(point up) ≈ = 0.62
100
Since Mikki has estimated the probability from a larger number of trials, her
estimate would be preferred to Katia’s.
Based on the information available, the best estimate of the probability would be
found by combining the data from both experiments, and so maximising the number
of trials. In total, 95 favourable outcomes were observed in 150 tosses, and this gives a
95
‘best’ estimate of the probability of = 0.63.
150

Consider how the estimated probability of a drawing pin landing with the point up actually
alters as the number of tosses used to estimate it is changed. The following graph shows the
results of tossing a drawing pin 150 times.

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294 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

The probability of the drawing pin 1.0

Estimated probability
landing point up was estimated every 0.8
10 throws. From the graph it may be
0.6
seen that as the number of trials
increases the estimated probability 0.4
converges to a value and then stays 0.2
fairly stable.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Number of tosses

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Thus, one interpretation of probability is as the proportion of times that event will occur in
the long run. This interpretation also defines the minimum and maximum values of probability
as 0 (the event never occurs) and 1 (the event always occurs). On analysing the frequency
concept of probability, we see that other conditions must also hold which form the basis of our

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definition of probability. These are:
Pr(A) ≥ 0. Since the relative frequency of occurrence of any event must be greater than or
equal to zero, then so too must the probability associated with that event.
Pr(ε) = 1. Since the relative frequency of the whole sample space must be unity then so
too is the corresponding probability.
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes of a random experiment must be equal
to 1.
If the probability of an event is zero, then this event is said to be impossible, as it cannot occur.
Conversely, an event associated with a probability of 1 must occur and so is said to be certain.
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Example 5

1 2 3
A random experiment may result in 1, 2, 3 or 4. If Pr(1) = , Pr(2) = , Pr(3) = find
13 13 13
the probability of obtaining a 4.
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Solution
The sum of the probabilities is 1, therefore


1 2 3
Pr(4) = 1 − + +
13 13 13
6 7
=1− =
13 13

Example 6

A random experiment may result in A, B, C, D, E, where A, B, C, D are equally likely and E is

twice as likely as A. Find Pr(E).

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Chapter 10 — Probability 295

Solution
Let Pr(A) = Pr(B) = Pr(C) = Pr(D) = x. Then Pr(E) = 2x.
The sum of the probabilities is 1, therefore
x + x + x + x + 2x = 1
6x = 1
1
x=
6
1
Thus: Pr(E) = 2x =
3

E
Example 7

Consider the drawing pin tossing experiment in Example 4. What is the probability of the
drawing pin landing point down?

Solution

PL
Let U represent the event that the drawing pin lands point up, and D represent the
event that the pin lands point down.
When two events U and D are mutually exclusive, and such that together they make
up the entire sample space, they are said to be complementary events and

Thus:
Pr(U ) + Pr(D) = 1
Pr(D) = 1 − Pr(U ) = 1 − 0.63 = 0.37
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In general, the complement of any event A is denoted A and Pr(A ) = 1 − Pr(A).

Exercise 10B
Example 3 1 Estimate the probability of the event specified occurring, use the data given:
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a Pr(head) if a coin is tossed 100 times and 34 heads observed

b Pr(ten) if a spinner is spun 200 times and lands on the ‘ten’ 20 times
c Pr(two heads) of two coins are tossed 150 times and two heads are observed on
40 occasions
d Pr(three sixes) if three dice are rolled 200 times and three sixes observed only once
Example 4 2 A student decides to toss two coins and notes the results.
a Do you think relative frequencies obtained from 20 trials would make for a good
estimate of the probabilities?
b Perform the experiment 20 times and estimate Pr(two heads), Pr(one head), and
Pr(no heads).
c Combine your results with those of your friends, so that you have results from at least
100 trials. Use these results to again estimate the probabilities.
d Do you think the 100 trials data give better estimates of the probabilities?
e How many trials would you need to find the probabilities exactly?
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3 A student decides to roll two dice and record their sum.

a Do you think the relative frequencies obtained from 20 trials would provide a good
estimate of the probabilities?
b Perform the experiment 20 times and estimate Pr(total = 4), Pr(total = 7), and
Pr(total = 10).
c Combine your results with those of your friends, or carry out four more sets of twenty
trials, so that you have results from at least 100 trials of the experiment. Use these
results to again estimate the probabilities.

E
d Do you think the 100 trials data give better estimates of the probabilities?
e How many trials would you need to find the probabilities exactly?

4 Two misshapen six-sided dice were used for the following experiment. The first die was
thrown 500 times and 78 sixes were observed. The second die was thrown 700 times and
102 sixes were observed. If you wished to throw a six, which die would you choose to
throw, and why?

Number of heads
PL
5 A coin is known to be biased in favour of heads. To get some idea of the probability of the
coin showing heads it is tossed 2000 times. The following figures, which were the only
records kept, give the number of heads after various numbers of tosses:

Number of tosses 100

62
500

361
1000

712
2000

1404
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a Based on the 2000 tosses, what would be your best guess for the probability of the coin
coming up heads?
b How would this guess change if the coin had been tossed only 500 times?
c Suppose that you found out that immediately after the 100th toss a chip had come off
the coin. Explain what effect this might have.
SA

d Use the above data to obtain the best estimate of the probability of the coin coming up
heads after it has been chipped.
1 1
Example 5
6 A random experiment results in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. If Pr(1) = , Pr(2) = ,
12 6
1 1 1
Pr(3) = , Pr(5) = , Pr(6) = , find the probability of obtaining a 4.
8 6 8
Example 6
7 When a biased six-sided die was tossed a large number of times, it was observed that the
numbers 2, 3, 4 and 5 were equally likely to occur. The number 6 was noted to occur twice
as often as the number 2, whereas the number 1 was noted to occur half as often as the
number 2. Find the probability of each of the possible outcomes.

8 A target is divided into five regions labelled A, B, C, D, E. The probability of hitting the
regions A, B, C and D are equal. If Pr(E) = 0.1, find the probability of hitting region A,
Pr(A).
Example 7
9 For the target described in Question 8, find the probability of not hitting region A, Pr(A ).

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Chapter 10 — Probability 297

10.3 Determining probabilities by symmetry

Performing an experiment to estimate the probability of an event occurring is a
time-consuming exercise. There must be other ways of predicting the probability of an event,
using our knowledge of the situation − that is, to predict the probability of an outcome before
the event takes place. This is certainly true when we are rolling a perfectly fair die. Since six
outcomes are possible, it seems reasonable to claim that the probability of any one of them
occurring on a roll is equal. That is:
1
Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = Pr(4) = Pr(5) = Pr(6) =

E
6
This claim is made on the assumption that the outcomes from rolling the die are all equally
likely to occur.

Whenever an experiment has equally likely outcomes, we may define the probability of
an event E as:
Pr(E) =

PL
number of outcomes favourable to E
total number of possible outcomes
=
n(E)
n(ε)
where the notation n(E) is used to represent the number of elements in set E.

Recall that the set of possible outcomes from a random experiment is called the sample
space for the experiment, and is written as a list of items separated by commas and surrounded
by curly brackets, thus {a, b, c}. In the two dice examples discussed in the previous section,
there is the possibility of {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} on die 1, and {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} on die 2. So the
sample space for this experiment looks like this:
M
Die 2 1 2 3 4 5 6
Die 1

1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

SA

2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)

3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)

4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)

5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)

6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

The events discussed in the previous section correspond to subsets of the sample space.
For example,
‘double’ = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}

Thus, the probability of rolling a double can be determined:

6 1
Pr(double) = = = 0.167
36 6
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From the previous section you can see that the experimental results are quite close to these, but
not exactly the same. The probabilities determined by symmetry predict what would happen to
the experimental probabilities in the long run. Like the experimental approach to probability,
this definition defines the minimum and maximum values of probability as 0 (the event never
occurs) and 1 (the event always occurs), and it can be readily verified that the other rules for
probability still hold here where probabilities are calculated using symmetry.

Example 8

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Find the probability that each of the possible outcomes is observed for the following spinners.

a b
1 1 5
5
4 2
4
3

Solution
2

PL 3
5 4
5

a On spinner a there are five equally likely outcomes, so

Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = Pr(4) = Pr(5) = 0.2.

b On spinner b the areas allotted to each of the outcomes are not all equal, so the
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associated probabilities will not all be the same. The probabilities will be equal to
the fraction of the whole circle that each outcome defines.
Thus:
1
Pr(1) = Pr(2) = Pr(3) = = 0.125
8
2 1
SA

Pr(4) = = = 0.25
8 4
3
Pr(5) = = 0.375
8

Note that in both these cases Pr(1) + Pr(2) + Pr(3) + Pr(4) + Pr(5) = 1.

If the sample space for an experiment contains n elements, all of which are equally likely to
1
occur, we assign a probability of to each of these points. The probability of any event A,
n
which contains m of these sample points, occurring is then the ratio of the number of elements
in A, n(A), to the number of elements in ε, n(ε). That is:
n(A) m
Pr(A) = =
n(ε) n
Symmetry can also be used with areas of regions.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 299

Example 9

A square with side length 12 cm is drawn on a table.

a A circular disc of radius 2 cm is placed on the table so that it lies completely inside the
square. Draw a diagram of the square and indicate the region in which the centre of the disc
can lie if the disc must be inside the square. (Touching an edge is accepted.)
b A game consists of throwing the disc described above onto the table. A point is scored if
the disc lies completely within the square. (Touching an edge is accepted.) If a player

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always gets the centre of the disc into the square, what is the probability of scoring a point?

Solution
12 cm
a The shaded square indicates the
region in which the centre of the

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disc can lie if the disc is to lie
within the square.

2 cm

b There is a 2 cm wide border surrounding the red square. The area of the initial
square is 144 cm2 . The area of the red region is 64 cm2 . Therefore the probability
4 cm
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64 4
of the disc lying entirely within the square is = .
144 9

Exercise 10C
Example 8
1 Consider the following spinners. In each case, what is the chance of the pointer stopping
SA

in region 1?
a b c d
8 1
3 1 7 2 2
260° 1
6 3
2 1 2
5 4

2 In 1989 the number of university enrolments in Victoria, by location, were as follows:

University Number enrolled

Deakin 8262
La Trobe 13491
Monash 14847
Melbourne 21819
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300 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

a What is the probability that a randomly selected university student is enrolled at

Deakin University?
b What is the probability that a randomly selected university student is enrolled at
Melbourne or Monash universities?
c What is the probability that a randomly selected university student is not enrolled
at La Trobe University?

3 Suppose that in a certain city the same number of voters were born on each of the
365 days of the year, and that nobody was born on 29 February. Find the probability that

E
the birthday of a voter selected at random:
a is 29 November b is in November
c falls between 15 January and 15 February, not including either day
d is in the first three months of the year
e is not on 15 April f is not in July

the card is:

a a club PL
4 A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that

c a picture card (ace, king, queen or jack)

the card is:

a less than 10
b red
d not a diamond

5 A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that

b less than or equal to 10

M
c an even number d an ace

6 Two regular dice are rolled. List the sample space for this experiment and from it find the
probability that the sum of the numbers showing is:
a even b 3 c less than 6

7 Two regular dice are rolled. List the sample space for this experiment and from it find the
SA

probability that the sum of the numbers showing is:

a equal to 10 b odd c less than or equal to 7

8 An experiment consists of rolling a die and tossing a coin. Use a tree diagram to list the
sample space for the experiment. Find the probability of obtaining a head and an even
number.

9 A child is given a circle, a rectangle and a square to colour in, and a choice of three
colours: red, blue and green. For each shape the child chooses a colour at random with
which to colour it.
a Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes.
b Find the probability that:
i all the shapes are coloured red ii the shapes are all of different colours
iii the circle is red iv the rectangle is green and the square is not green.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 301

10 A flag is made up of three sections, as shown in the diagram. Four colours are available
for the flag: red, yellow, black and blue. However, each segment of the flag must be of a
different colour.
a Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes,
when colouring sections 1, 2 and 3 in succession.
b Find the probability that: 1 2 3
i red is not chosen ii red and black are chosen
iii section 1 is black and section 2 is red.

E
11 A bag contains five red balls, two blue balls and six white balls. A ball is chosen at
random and its colour noted. Find the probability that the ball chosen is:
a red b not blue

12 A bag contains five balls, numbered 1 to 5. A ball is chosen at random, the number noted

Example 9
PL
and the ball replaced. A second ball is then chosen at random and its number noted.
a Draw up a table of ordered pairs to show the sample space for the experiment.
b Find the probability that:
i the sum of the two numbers is 5 ii the two numbers are different
iii the second number is two more than the first.

13 A square with side length 5 cm is drawn on a table.

a A circular disc of radius 1 cm is placed on the table so that it lies completely inside the
square. Draw a diagram of the square and indicate the region in which the centre of the
M
disc can lie if the disc must be inside the square. (Touching an edge is accepted.)
b A game consists of throwing the disc described above onto the table. A point is scored
if the disc lies completely within the square. (Touching an edge is accepted.) If a
player always gets the centre of the disc into the square, what is the probability of
scoring a point?
SA

14 The square has side length 1 metre. A dart is thrown at the

square. The blue region is a one-quarter of a circular disc
centred at the bottom left vertex of the square. The dart is
equally likely to hit any part of the square and it hits the
square every time. Find the probability of hitting the blue
region.

15 In a sideshow at a fete a dart is thrown at a square

with side length 1 metre. The circle shown has a radius
of 0.4 m. The dart is equally likely to hit any point on
the square. Find the probability that the dart will hit:
a the shaded part of the square
b the unshaded part of the square.

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302 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

10.4 The addition rule

Before proceeding with the discussion of probability a review of sets and set notation is
necessary.
The null or empty set, denoted by Ø, is the set consisting of no elements. This is different
from {0}, which is a set containing one element, 0.
Sets, and the relationships between sets, can be illustrated
clearly by using Venn diagrams. ε is usually shown as a
rectangle, and a subset of ε as a circle. ε

E
If A and B are any two sets, then the union of A and B,
denoted A ∪ B, is the set of all elements in A or B or both. A B
For example, if A is the set of students in a school who
play hockey, and B the set of students who play tennis, then

PL
the union of A and B (shown on the Venn diagram by
shading both sets A and B), would represent the set of
students who play either hockey or tennis or both.
The intersection of A and B, denoted by A ∩ B, is the set
of elements that are in both A and B.
For example, the intersection of the sets previously
described would represent the set of students who play
both hockey and tennis, and is shown on a Venn diagram
by shading only the area contained in both A and B.
A
Union

Intersection
M
As previously, note that the complement of A, denoted
A , is the set of points that are in ε but not in A. A′
The complement of the set of students who play hockey A
in a school would represent the set of students who do not
play hockey and is shown on a Venn diagram by shading
only the area not contained in A.
SA

Complement
Two sets, A and B, are said to be disjoint or mutually
exclusive if they have no elements in common. A B
Thus, if A is the set of girls who play hockey in a school,
and B is the set of boys who play hockey, then A and B are
mutually exclusive, as no student can belong to both sets.
The Venn diagram illustrates that the two sets are mutually
exclusive. That is, A ∩ B = Ø. Disjoint sets

Finally, the number of elements in a set A is usually denoted n(A). For example,
if A = {a1 , a2 , a3 } then n(A) = 3.
Venn diagrams can be used to help us solve practical problems involving sets.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 303

Example 10

Fifty teenagers were asked what they did on the weekends. A total of 35 said they went to
football matches, the movies or both. Of the 22 who went to football matches, 12 said they also
went to the movies. Show this information on a Venn diagram. How many teenagers went to
the movies but not to football matches? How many did not go to either of these events?

Solution

E
Let F denote the set of teenagers who attend football matches and M denote the set of
teenagers who attend movies.
Hence from the information given F M
n(F ∪ M) = 35, n(F) = 22 and n(F ∩ M ) = 12. 10 12 13
Students who go to the movies but not to football

PL
matches are found in the region F  ∩ M, and from
the diagram n(F  ∩ M) = 13. Those who attend

n(F  ∩ M  ) = 15
n = 50
neither event are found in the region F  ∩ M  , and from the diagram.

Venn diagrams can be used to illustrate a very important rule that will enable us to calculate
probabilities for more complex events. If A and B are two events in a sample space ε, and
A ∩ B = Ø, then the relationship between them can be represented by a Venn diagram, as
shown.
M
From the Venn diagram we can see that
A B
n(A ∪ B) = n(A) + n(B) − n(A ∩ B)
(As the intersection has been counted twice, in
both n(A) and in n(B), we must subtract it.)
Dividing through by n(ε) gives:
SA

n(A ∪ B) n(A) n(B) n(A ∩ B)

= + −
n(ε) n(ε) n(ε) n(ε)
Now, if each of the outcomes in ε is equally likely to occur, then each term in this expression is
equal to the probability of that event occurring. This can be rewritten as:
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)

So the probability of A or B or both occurring can be calculated using

Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)

This is called the addition rule for combining probabilities.

This rule can be used to help solve more complex problems in probability.

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304 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

Example 11

If one card is chosen at random from a well-shuffled deck, what is the probability that the card
is either a king or a spade?

Solution
Let event K be ‘a king’. Then K = {king of spades,
king of hearts, king of diamonds, king of clubs}, K S
and n(K) = 4.

E
Let event S be ‘a spade’. Then S = {ace of spades,
king of spades, queen of spades, . . .}, and n(S) = 13.
The event ‘a king or a spade’ corresponds to the union of sets K and S.
4
Pr(K ) =

PL Pr(S) =

Pr(K ∩ S) =

Pr(K ∪ S) =
52
13
52
1
52
and so, using the addition rule, we find
4
+
13
−
52 52 52
1
=
16
52
= 0.3077 (correct to 4 decimal
places)
M
Exercise 10D
Example 10 1 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}, A = {1, 2, 3, 4}, B = {2, 4, 6}. Show these sets on a Venn
diagram and use your diagram to find:
a A∪B b A∩B c A
SA

d A ∩ B e (A ∩ B) f (A ∪ B)

2 ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}, A = {multiples of four}, B = {even numbers}.

Show these sets on a Venn diagram and use your diagram to find:
a A b B c A∪B d (A ∪ B) e A  ∩ B

3 ε = {different letters of the word MATHEMATICS}

A = {different letters of the word ATTIC}

B = {different letters of the word TASTE}

Show ε, A and B on a Venn diagram, entering all the elements. Hence list the sets:
a A b B c A∪B
d (A ∪ B) e A  ∪ B f A  ∩ B

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Chapter 10 — Probability 305

4 In a survey of 100 university students, a market research company found that 70 students
owned CD players, 45 owned cars and 35 owned CD players and cars. Use a Venn diagram
to help you answer the following questions:
a How many students owned neither a car nor a CD player?
b How many students owned either a car or a CD player, but not both?

5 A swimming team consists of 18 members. Each member performs in at least one of the
three events, freestyle (F ), backstroke (B) and diving (D). Every diver also races. Eleven of
the team swim freestyle and ten swim backstroke. Two of the team swim backstroke and

E
dive, but do not swim freestyle. Five of the team swim freestyle only, and seven of those
who swim backstroke do not dive. Draw a Venn diagram and find:
a n(D) b n(F ∩ D ∩ B) c n(F ∪ B) d n(F ∩ B ∩ D )

6 If ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {3} find:

Example 11
a Pr(A ∪ B)

PL b Pr(A ∩ B)

7 Let ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}.

c Pr(A )

If A is the event ‘an even number’ and B is the event ‘a multiple of three’, find:
a Pr(A) b Pr(B)
d Pr(B )

c Pr(A ∩ B) and hence Pr(A ∪ B)

8 A letter is drawn at random from the word PROBABILITY. Let

A = the event ‘drawing a vowel’
B = the event ‘drawing a consonant’
M
C = the event ‘drawing an I’
D = the event ‘drawing a B’.
Find the probability of:
a A∪B b A∪C c B∪C d A∪D e B∪D f C∪D

Probability tables and Karnaugh maps

SA

10.5
The probability table is an alternative A B
to a Venn diagram when illustrating a
probability problem diagrammatically. A′ ∩ B′
Consider the Venn diagram which
illustrates two intersecting sets A and B. A ∩ B′ A∩B A′ ∩ B
From the Venn diagram it can be seen
that the sample space is divided by the sets
into four disjoint regions: A ∩ B, A ∩ B ,
A ∩ B and A ∩ B . These regions may be
represented in a table as follows. Such a table B B
is sometimes referred to as a Karnaugh map:
A A∩B A ∩ B

A A ∩ B A ∩ B 
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306 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

In a probability table, the entries in each cell give the probabilities of each of these events
occurring.

Column 1 Column 2

B B

Row 1 A Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A ∩ B  )

Row 2 A Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A ∩ B  )

E
Further, from the Venn diagram we can see that set A consists of the union of the section of
set A that intersects with set B, and the section of set A which does not intersect with set B.
That is:

PL
A = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B  )

Sets A ∩ B and A ∩ B are mutually exclusive, therefore:

Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A ∩ B  ) = Pr(A)

and thus summing the probabilities in row 1 gives Pr(A).

Similarly, Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(B)
Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A ∩ B  ) = Pr(A )
Pr(A ∩ B  ) + Pr(A ∩ B  ) = Pr(B  )
M
Finally, since

Pr(A) + Pr(A ) = 1 and Pr(B) + Pr(B  ) = 1

the totals for both column 3 and row 3 are equal to 1. Thus, the completed table becomes:
SA

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

B B

Row 1 A Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A ∩ B ) Pr(A)

Row 2 A Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A ∩ B ) Pr(A )

Row 3 Pr(B) Pr(B ) 1

These tables can be useful when solving problems involving probability, as shown in the next
three examples.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 307

Example 12

If A and B are events such that Pr(A) = 0.7, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.4 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2, find:
a Pr(A ∩ B ) b Pr(B) c Pr(A ∩ B ) d Pr(A ∪ B)

Solution

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

E
B B

Row 1 A Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.4 Pr(A ∩ B  ) Pr(A) = 0.7

Row 2 A Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2 Pr(A ∩ B  ) Pr(A )

PL
Row 3 Pr(B)

The given information has been entered in the table in red.

a From row 1: Pr(A ∩ B ) = Pr(A) − Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.7 − 0.4 = 0.3
b From column 1: Pr(B) = Pr(A ∩ B) + Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2 + 0.4 = 0.6
c From column 3: Pr(A ) = 1 − Pr(A) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3
From row 2: Pr(A ∩ B ) = 0.3 − 0.2 = 0.1
d The addition rule gives Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
= 0.7 + 0.6 − 0.4
Pr(B ) 1
M
= 0.9
The completed table is shown below:

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

B B
SA

Row 1 A Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.4 Pr(A ∩ B ) = 0.3 Pr(A) = 0.7

Row 2 A Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2 Pr(A ∩ B ) = 0.1 Pr(A ) = 0.3

Row 3 Pr(B) = 0.6 Pr(B ) = 0.4 1

Example 13

Records indicate that, in Australia, 65% of secondary students participate in sport, and 71% of
secondary students are Australian by birth. They also show that 53% of students are Australian
by birth and participate in sport. Use this information to find:
a the probability that a person selected at random is not Australian by birth
b the probability that a person selected at random is not Australian by birth, and does not
participate in sport.

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308 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

Solution
The information in the question may be entered into a table as shown. (We will use A
to represent ‘Australian’ and S to represent ‘participation in sport’.)

S S

A 0.53 0.71

A

E
0.65 1

All the empty cells in the table may now be filled in by subtraction.
In column 1: Pr(A ∩ S) = 0.65 − 0.53 = 0.12

PL
In column 3: Pr(A ) = 1 − 0.71 = 0.29
In row 1: Pr(A ∩ S  ) = 0.71 − 0.53 = 0.18
In row 3: Pr(S  ) = 1 − 0.65 = 0.35
In row 2: Pr(A ∩ S  ) = 0.35 − 0.18 = 0.17
The completed table is as follows:

S S
M
A 0.53 0.18 0.71

A 0.12 0.17 0.29

0.65 0.35 1

The probability that a person selected at random is not Australian by birth is given by
SA

Pr(A ) = 0.29.
The probability that a person selected at random is not Australian by birth and does
not participate in sport is given by Pr(A ∩ S ) = 0.17.

Example 14

Suppose that of the people in Australia approximately 6% are colourblind. Suppose also that
45% of Australians are male and, further, that 5% of males are colourblind. Use this
information to find:
a the probability that a person selected at random is female and colourblind
b the probability that a person selected at random is male and not colourblind.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 309

Solution
This information is summarised in the following table. (We will use M to represent
‘male’ and B to represent ‘colourblind’.)

M M

B 0.05 0.06

B

E
0.45 1

Filling the empty cells by subtraction gives:

PL B

B
M

0.05

0.40

0.45
M

0.01

0.54

0.55
0.06

0.94

Thus, reading from the table, the probability that a person selected at random is
female (not male) and colourblind is Pr(M  ∩ B) = 0.01.
M
The probability that a person selected a random is male and not colourblind is given
by Pr(M ∩ B ) = 0.40.

Exercise 10E
SA

Example 12 1 If A and B are events such that Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.4 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.1, find:
a Pr(A ∩ B  ) b Pr(B) c Pr(A ∩ B  ) d Pr(A ∪ B)

2 If A and B are events such that Pr(A ) = 0.25, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.12 and Pr(B) = 0.52, find:
a Pr(A) b Pr(A ∩ B) c Pr(A ∪ B) d Pr(B  )

3 If C and D are events such that Pr(C ∪ D) = 0.85, Pr(C ) = 0.45 and Pr(D  ) = 0.37, find:
a Pr(D) b Pr(C ∩ D) c Pr(C ∩ D  ) d Pr(C  ∪ D  )

4 If E and F are events such that Pr(E ∪ F) = 0.7, Pr(E ∩ F) = 0.15 and Pr(E ) = 0.55, find:
a Pr(E) b Pr(F) c Pr(E ∩ F ) d Pr(E ∪ F)

5 If A and B are events such that Pr(A) = 0.8, Pr(B) = 0.7 and Pr(A ∩ B ) = 0.1, find:
a Pr(A ∪ B) b Pr(A ∩ B) c Pr(A ∩ B) d Pr(A ∪ B )

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310 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

Example 13
6 In a recent survey of senior citizens, it was found that 85% favoured giving greater powers
of arrest to police, 60% favoured longer sentences for convicted persons, and 50%
favoured both propositions.
a What percentage favoured at least one of the two propositions?
b What percentage favoured neither proposition?

7 Suppose a card is selected at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Let
A = event a picture card is selected (i.e. jack, queen, king or ace)
C = event a heart is selected.

E
a List the event spaces corresponding to events A and C.
b Determine the following probabilities and express your results in words:
i Pr(A) ii Pr(C ) iii Pr(A ∩ C ) iv Pr(A ∪ C ) v Pr(A ∪ C )

8 The following information applies to a particular class:

a
French is .
6

studies French
PL
The probability that a student’s name begins with M and that the student studies
1

The probability that a student’s name begins with M is .

3
10
The probability that a student does not study French is .
7
15
Find the probability that a student chosen at random from this class:
M
b has a name which does not begin with M
c has a name which does begin with M, but does not study French
d has a name which does not begin with M and does not study French.

9 A frame is chosen at random from a shop where picture frames are sold. It is known that
in this shop:
the probability that the frame is made of wood is 0.72
SA

the probability that the frame is freestanding is 0.65

the probability that the frame is not made of wood and is not freestanding is 0.2.

Find the probability that the randomly chosen frame is:

a made of wood or is freestanding
b made of wood and is freestanding
c not made of wood
d not made of wood but is freestanding.

10 A book is chosen at random from a bookshop. It is known that in this bookshop:

the probability that the book is a hardback but not a novel is 0.05
the probability that the book is not hardback but is a novel is 0.12
the probability that the book is not a novel is 0.19.

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Chapter 10 — Probability 311

Find the probability that the randomly chosen book is:

a a novel b a hardback novel
c a hardback d a novel or a hardback

11 At a school camp consisting of 60 students, sailing was offered as an activity one

morning, and bushwalking in the afternoon. Every student attended at least one activity.
32 students went sailing and 40 students went bushwalking, find the probability that a
student chosen at random:
a undertook neither of these activities b has sailed or bushwalked

E
c has sailed and bushwalked d has sailed but not bushwalked

12 At a barbecue attended by 50 people, hamburgers and sausages were available. It was

found that 35 hamburgers and 38 sausages were eaten, and six people were noted to have
eaten neither a hamburger nor a sausage. If no person ate more than one hamburger or one

PL
sausage, find the probability that a person chosen at random ate:
a a hamburger or a sausage
c had only one serve of food
b a hamburger and a sausage
d had only a hamburger
M
SA

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Review 312 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

Chapter summary

Probability is a numerical measure of the chance of a particular event occurring and may be
determined experimentally or by symmetry.
Whatever method is used to determine the probability, the following rules will hold:
a 0 ≤ Pr(A) ≤ 1 for all events A ⊆ ε
b Pr(ε) =1
c Pr(Ø) = 0

E
d Pr(A ) = 1 − Pr(A), where A is the complement of A
e Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) – Pr(A ∩ B) (the addition rule).
Probabilities associated with compound events are sometimes able to be calculated more
easily from a probability table.

PL
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if A ∩ B = Ø
If two events are mutually exclusive, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0 and Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)
A sample space ε can be divided into four disjoint regions A ∩ B, A ∩ B 1 , A1 ∩ B and
A ∩ B 

Multiple-choice questions

1 If the probability of Chris scoring 50 or more marks in the exam is 0.7, then the probability
M
he scores less than 50 marks is
A 0 B 0.3 C 0.4 D 0.7 E 0.8
2 A spinner is coloured red, yellow, blue and green. When spun the probability that it lands
on red is 0.1, yellow is 0.2 and blue is 0.4. What is the probability that it lands on green?
A 0.1 B 0.2 C 0.3 D 0.4 E 0.5
SA

3 Phillip is making a sign and has cut the letters of the word THEATRETTE out of wood, and
placed them in his tool box. If a letter is selected at random from the toolbox, then the
probability that it is a T is
2 3 1 1 3
A B C D E
5 10 5 6 5
4 Of a group of 25 people in a restaurant, three chose a vegetarian meal, five chose fish, ten
chose beef and the rest chose chicken for their main course. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen diner chose chicken?
3 6 7 2 7
A B C D E
25 25 25 5 18

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Chapter 10 — Probability 313

Review
5 Suppose that a card is chosen at random from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
What is the probability that the card is either a spade or a jack?
1 1 17 4 9
A B C D E
4 13 52 13 26
6 Suppose that 57% of swimmers in a club are female (F ), that 32% of the swimmers in the
club swim butterfly (B ), and that 11% of the swimmers in the club are females and swim
butterfly. Which of the following probability tables correctly summarises this information?

E
A B B B B B
F 0.11 0.21 0.32 F 0.04 0.53 0.57
F 0.46 0.22 0.68 F 0.28 0.15 0.43
0.57 0.43 1 0.32 0.68 1

E
F
F
B
0.18
0.14
0.32

B
PL B
0.39
0.29
0.68

B
0.57
0.43
1
D

F
F
B
0.11
0.21
0.32
B
0.32
0.36
0.68
0.43
0.57
1
M
F 0.11 0.46 0.57
F 0.21 0.22 0.43
0.32 0.68 1

The following information relates to Questions 7 and 8.

SA

A and B are events such that Pr(A) = 0.35, Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.18 and Pr(B) = 0.38.

7 Pr(A ∪ B) is equal to
A 0.73 B 0.133 C 0.15 D 0.21 E 0.55
8 Pr(A ∩ B) is equal to
A 0.18 B 0.17 C 0.45 D 0.20 E 0.65
9 A square has side length of 4 metres. Inside the square is a circle of radius 1.5 metres. If a
dart thrown at the square is equally likely to land at any point inside the square, then the
probability that it will land outside the circle is closest to
A 0.442 B 0.295 C 0.558 D 0.250 E 0.375

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Review 314 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

10 The following information applies to a particular class:

2
The probability that a student studies Mathematics is .
3
3
The probability that a student studies German is .
10
7
The probability that a student studies Mathematics and does not study German is .
15
The probability that a randomly chosen student does not study either Mathematics or
German is
1 7 7 7 1

E
A B C D E
5 30 15 10 3

Short-answer questions (technology-free)

1 Two six-sided dice are tossed. Find the probability that:

that the number is:

a divisible by 3
PL
a the sum of the values of the uppermost faces is 7

b divisible by 4
b the sum is not 7
2 The probability that a computer chip is operational is 0.993. What is the probability that it
is not operational?
3 A whole number between 1 and 300 (inclusive) is chosen at random. Find the probability

c divisible by 3 or by 4
4 A drawer contains 30 red socks and 20 blue socks.
a If a sock is chosen at random, its colour noted, the sock replaced and a second sock
M
withdrawn, what is the probability that both socks are red?
b If replacement doesn’t take place, what is the probability that both socks are red?
5 Box A contains 5 pieces of paper numbered 1, 3, 5, 7, 9.
Box B contains 3 pieces of paper numbered 1, 4, 9.
One piece of paper is removed at random from each box. Find the probability that the two
SA

numbers obtained have a sum that is divisible by 3.

6 A three-digit number is formed by arranging digits 1, 5 and 6 in a random order.
a List the sample space.
b Find the probability of getting a number larger than 400.
c What is the probability that an even number is obtained?
7 A letter is chosen at random from the word STATISTICIAN.
a What is the probability that it is a vowel?
b What is the probability that it is a T?
8 If Pr(A) = 0.6 and Pr(B) = 0.5, can A and B be mutually exclusive? Why or why not?

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Chapter 10 — Probability 315

Review
9 Ivan and Joe are chess players. In any game the probabilities of Ivan beating Joe, Joe
beating Ivan or the game resulting in a draw are 0.6, 0.1 or 0.3 respectively.
They play a series of three games. Calculate the probability that:
a they win alternate games, with Ivan winning the first game
b the three games are drawn
c exactly two of the games are drawn
d Joe does not win a game.

E
10 A die with 2 red faces and 4 blue faces is thrown three times. Each face is equally likely to
face upward. Find the probability of obtaining the following:
a 3 red faces b a blue on the first, a red on the second and a blue on the third
c exactly 1 red face d at least 2 blue faces

Extended-response questions

d A ∪ B
PL
1 Let A and B be events in an event space ε, such that Pr(A) =
, Pr(B) = , Pr(A ∩ B) =  .
Find expressions for the probabilities of the following events in terms of
,  and  :
a A ∩ B b A ∩ B
e (A ∪ B)
c A ∩ B
f (A ∩ B)
2 To have a stage production ready for opening night there are three tasks which must be done
and, as the same people are involved in each task, these must be done in sequence. The
following probabilities are estimated for the duration of the activities:
M
Task 6 days 7 days 8 days

Build scenery 0.3 0.3 0.4

Paint scenery 0.6 0.3 0.1

SA

Print programs 0.4 0.4 0.2

a What is the probability that the building and painting of the scenery will together take
exactly 15 days?
b What is the probability that all three tasks will together take exactly 22 days?
c Find the probability distribution of T, the total length of time taken to complete all three
tasks.

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Review 316 Essential Mathematical Methods 1 & 2 CAS

3 On average, Emma goes home for dinner once a fortnight, and Sally goes home for dinner
once a week.
a What is the probability that either Emma or Sally or both of them go home to dinner on
a particular day if it is known that, Pr(Both girls go home to dinner on a particular day)
= 17 × 14
1
= 98
1
?

b Establish inequalities for the probability that one or other or both of them go home to
dinner on a particular day if the value of Pr(Both girls go home to dinner on a particular

E
day) is unknown.
4 A confectionary machine produces jellybeans of different shapes and colours in a random
way and pours them into a giant
vat. The jellybeans are produced Cross-sectional shape Purple Green Red
in the proportions indicated in the

PL
table. There are millions of
jellybeans in the vat.
Circular

Oval
0.4

0.2

a What is the probability that a randomly chosen jellybean is purple?

0.2

0.1
0.1

b What is the probability that a randomly chosen jellybean has an oval cross-section,
given that it is purple? (Consider sample space of purple jellybeans.)
c What is the probability of obtaining a green jellybean, given that it has a circular
cross-section. (Consider sample space of jellybeans with circular cross-section.)
M
d Three jellybeans are withdrawn from the vat. What is the probability of obtaining one
of each colour. (Assume replacement.)
e Ten jellybeans are taken from
the vat and put in a jar. The Cross-sectional shape Purple Green Red
number of each type of
jellybean is indicated in the Circular 4 2 1
SA

table.
Oval 2 1 0

Three jellybeans are removed from the jar without replacement. What is the probability
that there is one of each colour?

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