Items IDR bn
Cash - 2022 09 30 890
Est CFO, 1Yr 309
Est CFI, 1Yr -48
Est CFF, 1Yr -68
Est Cash - 2023 09 30 1,083
Est CFO - 4Q23, ex Pelindo II 77
Est CFO - 4Q23, Pelindo II -439
Est CFI - 4Q23 -12
Est CFF - 4Q23 0
Est Cash - 2023 12 31 709
*conservatively, because 3Q22 CFO was 109bn, and 4Q22E CFO is likely higher since it has stronger oper
Remarks
Source: Company FS
conservatively* using TTM, 4Q21-3Q22 as assumption
using TTM, 4Q21-3Q22 as assumption
assume div/dhare, 12.49 in 4Q22 + 25 est in 3Q23
using quarterly avg 4Q21-3Q22, exc payment to Pelindo
based on FS notes
using quarterly avg 4Q21-3Q22
assume no div payment (has been paid in 3Q23)
CFO was 109bn, and 4Q22E CFO is likely higher since it has stronger operational result
e: Company FS 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
119 68 13 109
-20 -5 -11 -12
68.25
IPCC IJ Equity - 2023 02 02 - HakaHakiAM
Target Price: 1050 << 5x EV to Net Profit (or around 10x FY23E PER)
H H
Investment Thesis: 1. Stellar operational result in 4Q22. Thanks to significant growth/recove
2. Extremely cheap in EV PoV. (Market Cap= IDR 1tn, Cash= IDR 890bn)
ak (unit) Q.Avg - 2019 Q.Avg - 2020 ak
Q.Avg - 2021
aH aH
CBU - Export 82,250 57,750 72,500
CBU - Import 18,750 8,250 11,750
CBU - Domestics 42,995 22,536 35,618
Truck, Bus, and HE - Export 1,032 1,161 951
ak a
Truck, Bus, and HE - Import 2,187 638 2,205
Truck, Bus, and HE - Domestics 48,553 5,931 7,809
Motor 9,732 4,460 17,584
GC - Export (M3) 8,832 4,925 8,247
GC - Import (M3) 6,586 5,093 7,939
iA
GC - Domestics (M3) 6,380 3,654 4,312
Total 227,297 114,397 168,915
M
(IDR bn)
Revenue 131 89 129
Op Profit 32 - 5 28
Op Profit % 24.7% -5.0% 21.9%
Net Profit, assuming 22% tax 25.2 - 3.5 22.0
Current Price/Net Profit 10.40 - 74.50 11.87
Current EV/Net Profit 1.55 - 11.11 1.77
Source: https://investor.id/market-and-corporate/318857/industri-otomotif-pulih-bongkarmuat
other news and corporate presentations
Source: https://investor.id/market-and-corporate/318857/industri-otomotif-pul
Target EPS 200
Target PE 10.0
Target Price 1,099
other news
Target EV/Net Profit 5
Target Price 1,038
no of stock (bn) 1.82
r around 10x FY23E PER)
s to significant growth/recovery in automotive industry
= IDR 1tn, Cash= IDR 890bn)
ak 1Q22
est. 9/8, from
8m22 report
Q.Avg - 2Q22-
est. 12/9, from
9M22
4Q22
aH
3Q22
64,000 95,268 112,952
13,139 14,566 27,436
62,588 78,052 90,179
703 763 743
ak
4,130 2,826 3,275
20,434 26,164 11,447
55,421 40,439 170,461
10,629 8,648 9,309
10,486 9,788 10,020
iA
3,945 4,394 4,245
245,475 280,906 440,066
est, based on ops
M
trend
150 179 230
53 59 80
35.3% 33.0% 35.0%
41.3 46.0 62.7
6.33 5.68 4.17
0.94 0.85 0.62
ndustri-otomotif-pulih-bongkarmuat-ipcc-melesat-pada-2022
318857/industri-otomotif-pulih-bongkarmuat-ipcc-melesat-pada-2022
