Unit-3

Disaster Management Cycle

Disaster management

The Disaster management cycle illustrates the ongoing process by

which governments, businesses, and civil society plan for and
reduce the impact of disasters, react during and immediately
following a disaster, and take steps to recover after a disaster has
occurred.

Appropriate actions at all points in the cycle lead to greater

preparedness, better warnings, reduced vulnerability or the
prevention of disasters during the next iteration of the cycle.

The complete disaster management cycle includes the shaping of

public policies and plans that either modify the causes of disasters
or mitigate their effects on people, property, and infrastructure.
Phases of disaster management

Disaster management cycle

4 Phases of disaster
management includes
● Preparedness
● Response
● Recovery and
● Mitigation

Disaster management cycle

Water Symposium of Florida 2021

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sary/emergency-management
 Components of disaster management cycle

Risk management
Vs
Crisis management

RESPONSE
● What happens after the disaster occurs.
● During the response stage, any ongoing hazards
are removed from the area;
● It includes activities done immediately after a
disaster. Eg: evacuation, relief , search, rescue,
burial, setting camps, shelters, attending to
needs of affected people, Trauma counselling,
psychological aid, etc.
● Involves both short- and long-term responses.It
can last say up to 3 months depending on
extent of damage and no. affected
● Ideally, the disaster-management leader will
coordinate the use of resources (including
personnel, supplies and equipment) to help
restore personal and environmental safety, as
well as to minimize the risk of any additional
property damage.
 RECOVERY
● This stage is about helping individuals, communities, businesses and
organizations return to normal or a new normal depending on the
impact of the disaster.
● This can take a long time, sometimes years or decades.
● It involves stabilizing the area and restoring all essential community
functions.
● Recovery requires prioritization: first essential services like food, clean
water, utilities, transportation and healthcare will be restored, with
less-essential services being prioritized later.

MITIGATION
The measures taken to reduce the loss of lives and impact on
environment prior to occurring of an disaster event is mitigation phase.
Eg: creating strong, better infrastructure, better communication technology,
retrofitting buildings, flood control dams, early warning systems, framing
specific legislations, etc.
Both structural and nonstructural measures may be taken.
○ A structural measure means changing the physical characteristics of a
building or an environment to curb the effects of a disaster. For
example, clearing trees away from a house can ensure that
dangerous storms don’t knock down the trees and send them crashing
into homes and public buildings.
○ Nonstructural measures involve adopting or amending building codes
to optimize safety for all future building construction.

https://www.ucf.edu/
PREPAREDNESS
● It is an ongoing process in which individuals, communities, businesses
and organizations can plan and train for what they’ll do in the event
of a disaster.
● Fire drills, active-shooter drills and evacuation rehearsals are all good
examples of the preparedness stage.
● Preparedness is done at community level. Eg: International Red cross
keep trained teams stand by at all times in case there is a disaster in
any part of the world.

https://www.ucf.edu/

Components of the disaster management cycle

1. Response
2. Recovery
3. Rehabilitation
4. Reconstruction
5. Development
6. Prevention
7. Mitigation
8. Preparedness

From Handbook on Disaster Management

Prevention

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sary/emergency-management
4 R’s of disaster management

● Reduction (mitigation)
● Readiness (Preparedness)
● Response
● Recovery

Disaster mitigation
“Measures aimed at reducing the impact of a natural or
man-made disaster on a nation or community”

With this definition, the basic assumption is that, while it may be

possible to prevent some disaster effects, other effects will obviously
persist. The concept of mitigation recognizes this and maintains that
the application of certain measures (usually in the form of specific
programs) can moderate or reduce disaster effects.
 Objectives of disaster mitigation
● Reduce the risk due to natural and man-made disasters
● Take steps like hazard mapping and vulnerability analysis for risk
management
● Prepare and enforce structural mitigation measures like building
regulations and their implementation
● Reduce risk by exercising control over development
● Help vulnerable populations putting in place measures for crop
planning, urban planning and land use regulations

Principles of disaster mitigation

Initiation: Prioritization:
● Mitigation can be introduced ●When resources are limited, priority
within the context of should be given to the protection of key
reconstruction, new investment social groups, critical services and vital
and the existing environment economic sectors
● Plans should be realistic Monitoring and evaluation:
Management:
●Mitigation measures need to be
● Mitigation must not be isolated
from the related elements of the continuously monitored and evaluated
disaster management cycle ●Plans need to be implemented in a time
● Active mitigation with incentives bound manner
work better than passive Institutionalization:
methods with restrictive law ● Mitigation measures should be
● Safety measures need to be sustainable to resist public apathy
spread through a variety of during the long periods between the
integrated activities major disasters
● Effective leadership is essential to
● Political commitment is vital
manage the complex and
interdependent activities (Source: disaster management handbook)
Hazard mapping
Hazard map shows the hazard likely in a region
Data required: hazards that have happened in the region in the past
Source of data:
a) Recorded history
i) Gives an indication of the likely hazard in a country or region
b) Information gathered from the community
i) If records are not available / insufficient
 BMTPC Vulnerability atlas

Objectives of the hazard map

● To make the people of the region aware of the hazards likely in the
region
● To help disaster managers and other stakeholders to plan and be
prepared for disasters as and when it occurs

● Hazard map may be single hazard map or multiple hazard map

 Vulnerability analysis
4 types of vulnerabilities:
Physical, economic, social and environmental
● Gives a picture of the risk that people or regions may be subjected to
● Hazard maps also help in vulnerability assessment
○ People living in low-lying areas are vulnerable to floods from heavy rains
○ People living near coastal areas are vulnerable to flooding due to high
tides, tsunamis, cyclones and heavy rains
○ People living on hill slopes or at foothill areas are vulnerable to landslides
and avalanches due to heavy rain, earthquake etc.
○ People living in the floodplains of the rivers are vulnerable to flooding
due to the river breaching the banks caused by heavy flows from the rain
○ People who live in homes not constructed to withstand earthquake are in
danger
○ Among those threatened, the elderly, children and women are more
vulnerable
○ People without resources, like the poor, are more vulnerable.

Structural Vs non-structural mitigation

Structural mitigation
For engineered structure: Additional training to the professionals to
incorporate mitigation practices into their design of structures resistant to
seismic shock, storm winds, or floods.
• site planning;
• assessment of forces created by the natural phenomena
• the planning and analysis of structural measures to resist such forces;
• the design and proper detailing of structural components;
• construction with suitable material; and
• good workmanship under adequate supervision.
Non engineered structure: Structures constructed by their owners
themselves or by local carpenters and masons who generally lack formal
training.
Safety can be increased by ensuring that they are not built on hazardous
sites such as steep slopes subject to landslides, floodplains subject to flash
floods or river bank erosion, or coastal areas exposed to storm surges.
Structural Vs non-structural mitigation

Non structural mitigation measures

● Legal framework
● Training and education
● Public awareness
● Institution building
● Warning system
● Agriculture mitigation measures

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Disaster preparedness
Measures required for being equipped to face disasters that are likely to
occur in the region
Mitigation and preparedness should go hand in hand
Objectives of the preparedness are
● Ensure public awareness and preparedness for disasters
● Prepare and be ready to implement the disaster management plan
● Ensure standard procedure for evacuation and immediate relief
● Prepare sheltering plans and ensure physical availability of shelters
● Have plan for warehousing of relief materials and logistics of operation
● Ensure availability of healthcare services

Steps in disaster preparedness

1. Preparation of disaster management plan
2. Early warning systems
3. Evacuation plan
4. Shelters and sheltering plans
5. Inventory of resources
6. Warehousing of relief materials
7. Logistics
8. Communication
9. Education and training personnel
10. Public awareness programmes
 1.Disaster management plan
What the local government and communities are capable of doing to cope up
with the disaster
It is also known as Emergency Operational Plan
DMP should
● Detail out the likely emergencies for the area, both manmade and natural
● Identity individuals to command the operations
● Identify the agencies for DM operations and their functions
● Identify individual from different agencies, and their functions
● Identify the method of coordination between the agencies, government
and private
● Identify the mechanism for resources management
● Ensure the flexibility in the plan to be able to modify it according to
experiences gained

General format of the disaster management plan

1. Objectives: how it helps citizens to cope with disasters
2. Disaster scenarios: information about actual and likely disasters and
any unusual situation that may arise
3. Organization and control: institutional arrangement for disaster
management
4. Coordination and inter-relationships: Role of each agencies and how
they will interact with each other
5. Resources and logistics: Resources available and to be procured from
outside, procurement time, warehousing and distribution
6. Health and medical care: People and services available for first aid to
treating injuries and casualties
7. Public information: Mention the method of early warning to the public,
media and methods for this
8. Communication: Communication channels between the central control
and other government & private agencies must be known to all
9. Updating of plan: Updating may be needed due to more support and
infrastructure provided by the government or more volunteer groups
2. Early warning system
Early warning is essential to give time to prepare

Objectives of a comprehensive early warning system

● To inform the public about the likely risks

● To forecast in advance and communicate to all concerned
● To ensure speedy actions in communication and response
● Capacity and resilience building in the community for the expected risk

3. Evacuation plan
1. In case of predictable disasters, once of the major tasks before the
disaster strikes is to evacuate people from the hazard areas (Low lying
areas in case of cyclone, heavy rainfall and storm surge)
2. Evaluation plan must be prepared and people must be informed in
advance (many people would be unwilling to leave their homes and
belongings due to security concerns)
4. Shelters and sheltering plans
● Disaster management plan
should identify dedicated
shelters or buildings that can be
used to accommodate people
displaced from their homes

(tents in open ground in case of

earthquake, buildings at higher
levels in case of floods etc)

● Shelters (if permanent) need to

be regularly repaired and well
maintained. These buildings
designed as shelter centres can
“The shelters have been designed to withstand
be used for public activities like storms that can gust up to 280kmph”
schools, community halls etc. so
that they are well maintained
https://www.telegraphindia.com/

5. Inventory of resources
● Helps to plan the actions and deployment of resources and roles of
different people
● Indicates the resources (i) readily available for use, (ii) that can be
requisition at short notice and (iii) those which may take time to be ready
for use.
● Includes inventory for materials, equipments, trained personnel etc.
● Notes should also be made of resources that can be requisition in case of
need.
● Resources may be collected from the government, private individuals,
corporate bodies and others
6. Warehousing of relief materials

● Large quantity of material is needed in a short notice.

● Some quantity of such materials needed in an emergency must always be
available
● Ensure proper storage of food items, medicines etc.
● Distribution network must be carefully planned so that relief reaches the
needy in time and there is no delay due to bottlenecks in any aspect of
distribution
● Concepts of supply chain management is to be implemented
● (Strategic coordination within and across a number of entities in the
supply chain for improving efficiency with a focus on customer
satisfaction)

7. Logistics
Logistic: Practical organisation needed to make a complicated plan successful
● Required to ensure procurement and transportation of people and relief
material quickly, even to remote places
Aspects to be included
● All the usable routes to reach the region affected (By road, rail, water and
air)
● Alternate routes in case if the main ones are blocked
● Deployable vehicles (aircrafts, buses, goods carriers etc.). GPS connected
vehicles are necessary
● Quantum of supplies (food, water, medical supplies, equipments, cloths
etc.)
● A plan for distribution of relief materials to remote locations
● A plan for transporting personnel and equipment for relief and rescue
work
● Route map of all transport systems (hard and soft copy)
 8. Communication Important points
Communication is a vital ● Ensure that SOP is available, and it contains
element in the disaster a section on communication
management ● Make an inventory of the modes of
Challenges: communication & equipments available
● Information flow chart must be available
● Many communication for individuals responsible for sending and
systems fail during a receiving messages
disaster ● Communication protocol must be available
● The mode and the and known to all important people
message has to be ● Ensure that key persons have a backup
customised for different communication facility
type of audience ● Warning about an impending disaster and its
● Miscommunication and consequence must be made through mass
rumours media and must be repeated several times
● Mass media must be used for giving the
correct information
● Ensure the availability of 24x7 emergency
toll free number

9. Education and training

Many activities related to the disaster management require special skills

● Trained manpower is needed to take up such activities

● Awareness of hazard map, risk, vulnerability, disaster management cycle
etc . is the essential knowledge required
● Trained personnel are needed to handle IT tools and softwares, RS & GIS
tools etc.
● People must be aware of the disaster management plan of the region and
the standard operating protocol
10. Public awareness programmes
“An informed community has greater awareness about hazard and risks,
Ability and confidence to cope with disasters”
Involvement of people at the community level is recommended in disaster
management.
Public awareness must be created through multiple modes and methods
● Attractive publicity materials displayed in several localities
● Stage / street shows
● Discussions in mass media
● Mock drills
● Informal training programme
● Discussions about the safety procedures among the local community
● Information about the disasters and related procedures must be included
in school curricula
Disaster mitigation Disaster preparedness
● Hazard mapping and hazard ● Preparation of disaster
assessment
● Vulnerability analysis and risk management plan
assessment ● Early warning systems
● Monitoring , prediction and ● Evacuation plan
warning ● Shelters and sheltering plans
● Mitigation measures, including ● Inventory of resources
structural and non-structural,
measures ● Warehousing of relief
● Development control, short materials
term protective measures and ● Logistics
preparedness ● Communication
● Early intervention measures ● Education and training
● Awareness at the level of
decision and policy makers personnel
● Economic diversification ● Public awareness programmes

Disaster response and recovery

Response
● Response is the stage immediately after a disaster
● It is aimed at providing instant support to maintain life and health of
affected population.
● It also has a component before disaster (preparedness)
● A critical phase in the disaster management cycle
● Many agencies are involved in the operation
Response- Objectives Aspects/ Steps

Provide immediate relief to reduce the

1. Search and rescue
●
suffering of affected people
● Conduct search operations and rescue 2. Medical care
those stranded
● Provide food, water and 3. Humanitarian relief
accommodation in temporary shelters
to displaced people
4. Damage assessment
● Provide medical services as may be
needed to people injured 5. Coordination
● Take measures to prevent unhygienic
conditions that can cause diseases, and
their spread
● To reinstate critical services and
provide food, clothing and water.
● To restore damaged infrastructure, and
to make alternate housing camps.
Aspects / steps in disaster response..
Search and rescue Medical care Humanitarian relief
The first step Immediate requirement arises When people have displaced
for medical help from their homes or having
Timely action is lost their resources,
important to save the First aid for minor injuries, humanitarian aid is the first
lives hospitalization for major priority
Local community + injuries Shelter, food and water
trained personnels are
involved (NDRF etc.) Surgical procedures and Warehousing of the materials
heavy medication may also be and logistics for its
Aerial search may be needed distribution are also important
employed if the area is
inaccessible or if the proper attention need to be Generally the first one to
disaster is spread over paid to the dead bodies respond will be the local
large area NGOs. Their experience in
recovered till they are
humanitarian relief work will
Proper SOP is essential identified and disposed of by be valuable in disaster
in the disaster the next of kin management
management plan
It is necessary to monitor the
health of survivors,
particularly vulnerable
communities

Aspects / steps in disaster response..

Damage assessment

Loss of life and damage to private and public properties has to be assessed

Coordination
During the response phase, with multiple agencies offering their help, coordination
of efforts is a key factor
Setting up of a control room and identifying the person in command is the first step
The following are important
Unified command: A person, suitably a govt, official should be identified as the
person commanding the whole operation
Control room: the control room should be located conveniently so that the
building in which it is located is safe from the impact of the disaster. It should by
24x7 with a good communication set up
Communication network: fail-safe communication set-up must be available
throughout 24 hrs. Satellite phones and internet facilities are widely used
Information to media: Media briefing should be done daily so that correct
information goes to the world, and rumours can be avoided
Evacuation Vs Migration

● Evacuation is the relocation of individuals and members of the

affected community from risk prone zone to a safer location
● If the disaster is of slow onset (eg., drought) the movement of
people from the risk zone to a safer place is called migration
● Migration is usually not organized and coordinated by authorities, but it is the
decision of the people to move in search of food and livelihood

Response agencies
● NDRF
● SDRF
● Emergency operation centres
● Civil defense
● Fire service
● Home guards
● NSS
 Recovery…

National policy on disaster management

(NPDM) 2009
https://nidm.gov.in/PDF/policies/ndm_policy2009.pdf
Objectives of the recovery actions
To take care of the displaced persons till they are able to return to their
homes or their houses are made livable

To assess the damage to infrastructure and estimate the cost of construction

To obtain funding and start the reconstruction of infrastructure and houses

for the displaced persons

To undertake economic rehabilitation of people who have lost their livelihood

To ensure that essential services like water, sanitation and power supply are
available to people

Do you know that safe water supply is made available to

80% of the population in Bhuj during the reconstruction.
Prior to the earthquake, it was merely 30%
Recovery phases
Phase-1: Triggering of immediate recovery mechanism

In this stage the disaster recovery plan is activated

Affected communities are provided with relief supplies and shelter. Recovery
team focuses on restoring basic facilities like water, power, road network and
sewage lines

Phase-2: Damage assessment

Ascertaining losses and damage

Removing the debris and restoring livelihood

Phase-3: Reconstruction and rehabilitation

Causes of extensive damage has been identified and the remedial measures is
to be incorporated in the reconstruction

Recovery aspects evolve around the four R’s Reduction, readiness response
and restoration
 Reconstruction Cost of reconstruction
● Rebuilding the collapsed houses and
public buildings
● Reconstruction of public utilities is ● Retrofitting of partially damages
of first priority buildings
● Restoration of water supply , ● Cost of removing debris, reconstruction
sanitation and power supply lines of roads, railway, power and
require immediate action communication network, relaying of
● Communication and water and sanitation system
transportation network need next ● Compensation to people for the
attention damages
● Reconstruction of public buildings ● Cost of supporting people with food
and other infrastructure will follow and shelter till they are able to move
● Ensure good health care services into their own houses
to the affected people, free of ● Cost of economic rehabilitation
charge. Many may need long term ● Cost of restoring the damage to the
health care depending up on the environment
injury All the cost should be worked out on
Reconstruction work may go on for current prices, with escalation for time
many years, during this period, lapse due to the shortage of funding
people will have to be compensated and delay in implementing ht
by way of monetary assistance. reconstruction plans

Economic rehabilitation

Disaster brings halt to many economic activities on which many people depend
for thor livelihood

Restating of the economic activities may take time and people need to be
provided with alternative sources of income till then

Creating database of people with their skill set may help to assign jobs suitable
for them

Other actions include

● Provide economic support to people for minimum standard of living

● Give easy loans and aid to take up some economic activity
● Provide employment in the reconstruction activities
● Create a database of skill set of people
● Provide employment in government sectors
● Provide support and facilities to industry to restart operations
● Adopting alternative crop pattern and practices to reduce losses
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29115/rising-rubble.pdf
Role of ICT in disaster management
Information and communication technology (ICT)
● ICTs are basically information handling tools
● A varied set of goods, applications and services that are used to
produce, store, process, distribute and exchange information.
● They include the “old” ICTS of radio, television and telephone,
and the “new” ICTs of computers, satellites and wireless
technology and the Internet. These different tools are now able
to work together which reaches into every corner of the globe.

ICT
Print Technologies
Broadcast technologies (Radio / TV)
Digital (Computer and internet based technologies)
Mobile technologies

Advantages Drawbacks
Source: Usha Rani Vyasulu Reddi, Issue 1: An Introduction to ICT for Development, Primer Series on ICTD for
Youth (Incheon, UNAPCICT/ESCAP, 2011), pp. 64-65.
1. ICT for disaster mitigation
● Require access to reliable, accurate and timely information
● ICT can be used to deliver training and education online for capacity
building
● ICT helps in collecting data from the field, combining information from
various sources to identify and analyse potential risk
● GIS can be used prepare hazard maps, risk maps which are useful for
policy making
● State of the art communication network ensure uninterrupted flow of
messages and warnings

2. ICT in disaster preparedness

● Early warning system

● Voice and data communication continue to be of crucial importance in the
context of early warning
● Remote sensing and GIS have become integrated, well-developed and
successful tools in disaster preparedness in the form of monitoring,
forecasting, predicting, measuring and mapping of various impending
disaster events and helping disseminate early warning
● ICT facilitate the collection and flow of real-time data and information
● High-speed Internet access can be switched to satellites
● Satellite communications have also been used to reach the “last mile” in
remote communities
● Many emergency communication systems use satellite phones and/or
satellite radios
● Resource inventory
Early warning systems
Nodal agencies for early warning

● Cyclone, Heat and Cold waves: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)

● Floods: Central Water Commission (CWC)

● Tsunami: Indian National Centre for Oceanic Information Services
● Landslides : Geological SUrvey of India (GSI)
● Avalanches: Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment

3. ICT for disaster response

Disaster response
India Disaster Resource Network (IDRN)
Disaster response coordination centre (DRCC)
FUNCTIONS

Provide strategic directions: continuously monitor the disaster situation and

adjust to changes accordingly

Manage information: Should be the central information facility for the whole
rescue efforts. It need to obtain, process and disseminate the information

Facilitate task and problem management: Identify tasks and problems,

decide the best courses of action, implement plans of action and manage
resources.

Forward plan: Identify possible future tasks and problems, as well as to

develop longer-term strategies

Crowdsourcing Crisis Information

 Challenges in crowdsourcing

Tavra, M., Racetin, I. & Peroš, J. The role of crowdsourcing and social media in crisis mapping: a case study of a wildfire reaching
Croatian City of Split. Geoenviron Disasters 8, 10 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-021-00181-3
4. ICT for Disaster recovery and reconstruction
● ICT can improve the speed and quality of agency intervention,
including post disaster assessment, recovery planning and
monitoring, project design and implementation
● Choice of ICT should be determined by their ability to function
even with limited communication services
● Quality of the ICT system in place affect the recovery and
reconstruction
ICT for Disaster recovery and reconstruction…
ICT may be useful in in disaster recovery and reconstruction for
● Damage, loss and needs assessment
● Strategy formulation
● Monitoring and evaluation of reconstruction projects

https://www.unapcict.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Primer%203_ICT%20for%20DRM.pdf

ICT for Disaster recovery and reconstruction…

Damage, loss and needs assessment
● ICT tools are helpful in rapidly and systematically assessing the
significance of damage and loss, in defining reconstruction strategy
formulation, setting up a basis on geographical terms and sectors and
help define priorities
● Example: satellite images before and after the disaster help to identify the
primary impact zone, and the extent of damage

https://www.unapcict.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Primer%203_ICT%20for%20DRM.pdf
 ICT for Disaster recovery and reconstruction…
Strategy formulation

The information should be available in a very short time

Balance between speed and accuracy is needed
Technology like GIS and remote sensing can help at this stage
● Recovery and reconstruction strategy
● Planning for policy formulation considering social and economical needs

Most critical data that may require include:

https://www.unapcict.org/sites/defa
ult/files/inline-files/Primer%203_ICT
%20for%20DRM.pdf

ICT for Disaster recovery and reconstruction…

Monitoring and evaluation of reconstruction projects
● Information management agency should have a continuous dialogue with
the agencies involved in relief and reconstruction and with the local
communities
● Clarification of roles and responsibilities among all stakeholders must be
established
● Resource availability must be confirmed and resources must be mobilized
to implement the recovery and reconstruction measures
● A database of all affected people would be useful in all stages including
cash transfer for the beneficiary, livelihood recovery grants, registration
for land title etc.

https://www.unapcict.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Primer%203_ICT%20for%20DRM.pdf
 Risk

A combination of the hazard consequence (impact) and its

likelihood (vulnerability)

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/SAMANCTA/EN/Safety/AppendixA_EN.htm

What is risk analysis?

● Presents rigorous and quantitative results in a simple format

to help investigators to make the appropriate decisions
● Provides a scientific framework to help decision makers to
have choices between solving or mitigation
It is important that
● Risk analysis should be based on modern and acceptable
methods to improve confidence in results and conclusions
● The reasons for the methods used and the assumptions
made are well documented for future reference
● Risk analysis are updated when changes are made in the
system
Risk management includes

Identification of hazards and associated risks

Risk assessment / determination of risk

Risk evaluation and decide if risk is

tolerable
el purus bibendum luctus.
Prepare risk control action plan and
review its adequacy

1. Type of risks

Based on the nature of the hazard

Internal risks ● Mechanical hazards
External risks ● Chemical
● Electrical
● Radiation
● Environmental
● Fire and explosions
2. Risk Assessment
& 3. Evaluation

Determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to

a situation and a recognised threat
Provides estimate of the severity and likelihood of harm
It includes
● Source identification
● Exposure assessment
● Estimating the quantity of a hazard and the percentage of
exposed populations that will be harmed by exposure
● Risk characteristics (calculation of a numerical estimate or risk)

Risk assessment techniques

a) Qualitative risk assessment
b) Quantitative risk assessment
Risk assessment techniques
a) Qualitative risk assessment
•Prioritize based on their potential effect and probability
•Use probability-impact (PI) table
•Commonly used ratings: high, moderate and low

Risk rating

High risk:
•Substantial impact is expected
•Action is required to alleviate the issue
•High priority management attention is required
Moderate risk:
•It has some impact
•Special action is required to alleviate the issue
•Additional management attention is required
Low risk:
•Minimal impact
•Normal management oversight is sufficient
 Risk assessment techniques…

b) Quantitative risk assessment

•Quantification of risk
•Based on the (i) potential severity of loss and (ii) probability
of occurrence

i) Potential severity of the harm

Considerations
• Parts of the body likely to be affected
• Nature of the harm, ranging from slightly to extremely harmful

Slightly harmful Harmful Extremely harmful

● Superficial injuries ● Burns ● Amputation
● Nuisance and ● Serious sprains ● Major fractures
irrigation ● Minor fractures ● Poisoning
● Ill health leading to ● Deafness, asthama ● Multiple injuries
temporary ● Work related upper ● Fatal injuries
discomfort limb disorder ● Occupational cancer
● Ill health leading to ● Other life shortening
permanent minor diseases
disability ● Acute fatal diseases
ii)Probability (likelihood) of the harm
Considerations
● Number of personnel exposed
● Frequency and duration of
exposure
Estimation is based on ● Adequacy of control measures
● Frequency of exposure of the already implemented and compiled
people to the hazard phenomenon with
● Failure of services such as
● Probability of occurrence of an
electricity and water
event ● Failure of plant and machinery
● Possibility to avoid or limit the components and safety devices
damage ● Exposure to the elements
● Protection afforded by PPE and use
rate of PPE
● Unsafe acts
● Consequence of unplanned events

4. Risk control strategies

Risk avoidance Risk reduction / mitigation

Developing a strategy to reduce the risk
Choosing an alternative
by reducing the probability (and / or
course of action to avoid impact) of the risk
the risk
Risk transfer
Threat can be eliminated Risk acceptance / absorbed
Impact of risk (liability) is
by removing the cause of “Do nothing” option
transferred to a third party, more
capable
threat of dealing with the Regular monitoring, reporting, reviewing
problems and updating all risks
Eg.taking
Eg. better expertise,
insurance, use
warranties
Maintaining a positive attitude towards
of risk free-proven risk
techniques Regular feedback mechanism
Tools and techniques for risk
quantification

•Risk rating matrix

•Monte Carlo simulation
•Decision tree analysis
•Expected monitory value (EMV) analysis
•Sensitivity analysis

Risk rating matrix

Severity of risk (R)
= Likelihood of occurrence of risk (P) x Extent of impact (I)
R = PI
P = Risk event probability : An estimate of the probability that a
given risk event will occur
I = Risk impact value : an estimate of the loss that will be incurred if
the risk event occurs
Three-level rating matrix

Medium High
(3)
PI = 3 PI = 6 PI = 9

Impact (I) →
PI = 2 PI = 4 PI = 6

(2)
PI = 1 PI = 2 PI = 3

Low
(1)
Low Medium High
(1) (2) (3)
Probability (P) →

Category - 1 Intolerable PI = 9 Non-operable & evacuate the area

Category - 2 Substantial risk PI = 6 Intolerable & do not take the risk

Category - 3 Moderate risk PI = 4 or 3 Undesirable & analyse critically

Category - 4 Tolerable risk PI = 2 Acceptable & proceed carefully with

continuous improvement

Category - 5 Insignificant risk PI = 1 Activity is safe to proceed

Five-level risk rating method

IMPACT DESCRIPTION
: Light, serious, major, catastrophic and multi-catastrophic

LIKELIHOOD CLASSIFICATION
: Improbable, unlikely, likely, most likely, inevitable
Five-level risk rating method
IMPACT DESCRIPTION
Valu Classification Impact to personnel Impact to asset / property
e
1 Light First-aid treatment Minor damage, no delay
2 Serious Injury requiring treatment but not Moderate damage, minor delay
lost time
3 Major Lost time accident Serious damage, moderate delay
4 Catastrophic Serious injury requiring Major damage, serious delay
hospitalization
5 Multi-catastrophic Single or multiple fatality Catastrophic damage, critical
delay

Value Status Description

1 Improbable Never known before

LIKELIHOOD 2 Unlikely Known to occur in the industry
CLASSIFICATION
3 Likely Known to occur on other sites

4 Most likely Known to have occurred on this site

5 Inevitable Happens regularly on this site

Summary-Risk assessment techniques

•Qualitative risk assessment

•Prioritize based on their potential effect and probability
•Use probability-impact (PI) table
•Commonly used ratings: high, moderate and low
•Quantitative risk assessment
•Quantification of risk
•Based on the potential severity of loss and probability of
occurrence