Chapter 5 Stati PROBABILITY atistics quanti ‘ Learning Goals: quantify uncertainty (i) To measure the uncertainty of an event. 5.1 Some important terms: 5.1.1 Factorial Multiplication of first “n" natural number is termed as “n factorial” denoted by n! or [2 Example 5.1: factorial of 6 denoted by 6! is6!=6x5x4x3x2x1=720 5.1.2 Combination All possible selection of “r” objects out of “n” distinct objects ignoring their order is * + +. i called combination, it is denoted by"c, and is given as "C, Hen! where'n 2 Fr ritn-r)t Other forms of writing combination are .&.{") or C(n,r) r | Example 5.2: Solve (i) “3c, (ii) "°c, (ill) (") and C(14,6) ‘Solution: : Fic osha Sh _15.14.13.12.11.10.9.8! _ gyn T8(S-7)I7 817! 7.6.5.4.3.2.1 81 (ic, 10! 108 *"(10-8)!8! 218! 2.1.8! w(')}- 16! 16! _ 16.15.14.13.12.11.10.9! _ 1449 9) (16-9)!9! 719! 7.6.5.4.3.2,1.9! (inca) 14) 14 14.13.12.11 10.9.8! | 59953 | (14-6)!6! 816! 816.5.4.3.2.1Probability 5.1.3 Permutation sv? objects out of "0 distinct objects considering All possible distinct arrangements of “r” objects if D is given as"P. =——,. their order is called permutation, denoted by"p, and is gi (n=)! Example 5.3: expand (i) '°7%, and (ii) "7 Solution: ; op = 10! _10.9.8.7.65.4324 _)§14400 @nh= 2! 2. 2 a 15! _15.14.13.12.11.10.9.8! _ 39439400 GPP, = ~ 8! 5.1.4 Trial Atrial is a single performance of an experiment. 5.2 Random experiment : we “ ‘An experiment which may produce different results for each trial under similar conditior is called random experiment. Tossing a coin, rolling a die and drawing a card from a pack of playing cards interviewing a person for a specific purpose, recording the amount of rain fall in a cit are examples of a random experiment. Experiments conducted in the laboratories 0 physical and life sciences, observing various characteristics of a plant or an animal ar also examples of random experiment. 5.3 Sample space A set of all possible outcomes that can be generated by the performance of a random experiment is called sample space. Sample space provides a mathematical model of rea life situation. : : A member of sample space is called sample point. Example 5.4: Make sample space for 1. Tossing a coin i 2. Tossing two coins (a coin two times) 3. Rolling a die 144Fe iy paving a child ny having two children ' ie nin life of an elephant, tind ani experiment of titration witt by i jmbet Of flowers on a plant. h 1 mi.volume of a liquid F cunt’ students in a test wi ts of with maximum marks as 50. Probability er r se(HT} ; je (HHH. TH.TT} © 52(h23.456) 5 {BG} < , 5=(BB,BG, 68,66} I example from 6 to 9 we cannot produce sample space in set del/distribution ‘exists suchas normal, Poisson or any other distribution. Limits fain mo jample space are 6 s={rjosxs100,€R} form, for these 1. safif)5Sex<25reR} 8, 5={xfr20,x€R} : 9, S2{x]0xS50,x€ R} : id Event : Wysub setof a sample space May called an event. ‘SProbahiti uh : aya wolves predicting the relative likeli-hood of various htbilty is an area of study which in , robability ca ; "al theory of uncertainty: Probability can be described as mathematical theory 8°” 145Probability i bability 5.6 Different azproaches for calculation of pro! Ais. casing i isive and exhaustive outcomes of If n(S) are the number of equally likely, mutually exclu! 1 tis occurence of. ; i, vorabl a random experiment out of which n(E) outcomes are eed py PCE) Is diven e event E, then the probability that event “E” occurs, Cen ; n(E) P(E)= ny) bil It is a simple form of probability. It is also known as priori definition of probability. 5.6.2 Relative frequency approach . . . In this approach probability of an event is determined on the basis of: experimentation or historical data. % 5.6.3 Axiomatic definition of probability R This definition of probability based on certain axioms. Let sample space S has the sample points Ai, A2, .... An and their probabilities are P(A:), P(A2), ..., P(An). The probability of a sample point A; must satisfy the following properties. fi) O 0.028 E or F)= P(Eor F)=P(EUF)=P(E)+ P(r) p 0,074 + 0.575 — 0.028 = 0.621 (EnF) xi) What is probability of universi ion: 0 ersity level educated male and un educated feraie? 8 conditional probability ind Bare any tw ve 'y two events then occurrence of A given that B he: S already xr is: P(A\B)= AtAn8). PC P(B)#0 Corollary: (4 B)=P(A) When A and B are independent events, rt Al B) =0 When A and B are mutually exclusive events. 5,9 Multiplicative law of probability IfAand B are any two events then occurrence of A and B together at a time s given as: P(A B)=P(4)P(B|A) OR P(AnB)=P(B)P(4|B) Corollary #(dnB)= P(A) P(B) P(dnB)=0 if Aand B are independent events. if A and B are mutually exclusive events. 540 Additive law of probability n occurrence of A or B or both / at least one & © mn WAand Bare any two events the iSgiven as: pausy= Pat PE )- P(A B) 155o Probability eee P(B)- P(A)P(B) When A and Bare independent events P(AVB)= + 7 P(AUB) = P(A)+ P(B)—PE4)P(B|A) When A and B are dependent events PLAUB)= P(A) + PLB) When A and Bare mutually exclusive (AUB) = P(A) + events. Example 5.11: A pair of die is rolled what is probability of getting (i) Sum is 6 (i) Sum is 6 and same numbers (iii) Sum is 6 or same numbers (iv) Sumis 6 given that same numbers. Solution: a) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)/ 4 ={9) G2) G3) 3,4) G5 (3,6) Van a2) 43) 4,4) (4,5) (4,6)f? 5) =36 GD) (5,2) 63) (5,4) 5) (5,6) (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (65) (6,6) Let A= sum is g P(a)= 4) _ y SUMIS6 and same numbers ale one i = same numbers ={5, 4, 83), 4,2), ts )}; ; ; s)} LD, (2,2) 83, (44), ¢5 5) (6,6)} 156+B) rl (4 = AB) _ ~n(S) 36 um is ‘6 or same numbers B= same numbers 2 sum iS 6; (2,4), (33) (4,2), (5 }; ye((l) Probability pe(, (22) (3,3), (44), 6,5), (6,6)}; ynb={3)}i {av8)=P(4)+ PCB) P(AMB) 34 6 10% 5 P(AMB)= HAvB)= 36436 36 36 18 (wv) Sul let A=, sum’ is: 6; 4e((L,5), “O4), im is 6 given that same numbers B= same numbers (3,3), (4,2), 3=((W), 22), G3. 44) inbo(0.}; Hp) =P(408) _ 1/36 - P(B) 6/36 6))}; (5,5) (6,6); p(ay=M4) 5 . n(S) 36 p(py= 8). & (8)=7(5)"36 aaa n(S) 36Chapter 6 PROBABILITY DI ici discovered the | st tity distributions, ag pro hncio STRIBUTIONS “WS Working in physical and non-physical World in the form ' gandom variable able that assumes numerical values from outcomes of a random ph wed random variable, it is usually written as % sis abet o Yor 2 random variable i i r ( 4 ariable is abbreviated sl and is also known as stochastic or chance variable. For example (i) if a coin is ssed § times and interest is in number of heads, then random variable denoted by x i defined as number of heads in these five tosses of a coin has value: X= 0, 1,2,3,4 and 5. (i) weight of a plant measured by an experimenter. s ' here are two types of random variables, discrete and continuous, 64.4 Discrete random variable Arandom variable which may take on only a countable or specific values such as 0.1.2... iscalled discrete random variable, for examples number of children in a family, number of patients in a clinic and number of defective items in a box containing "77" total items. 6.1.2 Continuous random variable Arandom variable which may take an infinite number of possible values or any value within a range is said to be continuous random variable, Continuous random variables ae usually measurements. Examples are height and weight of a person, the amount of sugar in an orange and the life time of an object. 6.2 Probability distribution . Probability distribution is a statistical model that relates the values of a random variable to their probability of occurrence. 5 A list of values of the discrete random variable associated with its probability of currence is known as discrete probability distribution, for example probability dstibution for the number of heads when a coin is tossed twice is xX, {0 1 2 f [4/41 4/2 | 1/4 ; 'ts mathematical model is called probability mass function (pmf). Popular disc Probabiity distributions are binomial distribution, hyper-geometric distribution issn distribution etc ; dom Mathematical model that expresses the probability for values ofa coro ababity ‘atlable is called continuous probability distribution. It is also termeProbability Di tributions distribution are norma a bility density function (paf}. Popular continuous probal exponential and gamma distribution etc. 6.2.1 Parameter es the probability distribution of a random, A parameter is a quantity that characterizes variable. ee pistributions 6.3 Discrete Probability Distribution: and “failure” and with constant tthematician Jacob Bernouljj d not survive of seedling, jals, because there are 6.3.1 Bernoulli trial : poe A trial which has only two outcomes "SEE Swiss mal probability is called Berncul pe a esuts in survive ani - . Sowing the st er tian of a Sn sit invboy or girl are examples of Bernoulli tri ‘only two outcomes. 6.3.2 Bernoulli probability distribution Bernoulli distribution is 2 discrete distribution with pmt. ((=pg (x= 0) 6.3.3 Binomial.experiment Abinomial experiment is a statistical experiment that has more than one Bernoulli trials It has the following properties (i) The experiment consists of 1 repeated trials. (ii) Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. Call one of these outcomes asi success and the other, a failure. (il) The probability of success, denoted by p, is the same on every trial. (iv) The trials are independent; it means the outcc i ities taga ‘ome of one trial does not affect th gad Binonia Probability distribution ial randor iable i binomial petit ylasi is the number of successes x in n repeated trials 7 Probability distribution” of a binomial random variable ' Call Bieted us led a binomial distribution, Its pd. is [IX =x) ='C, Py Its notation j Eee xs b(x:n,p) 1X =0,1,2p00 178Probability Distributions I distribution of binomial properties on has the following ability distribution. 5 P erties 63 distributi 03) 4 ”) mean Is np lean > variance =qthen distribution is sy! 3 pix=*)= "cpt ane 1 x)=“ ) (3) ="C, P(X =x)= (5 2 AZ (ii) P(X 21) we(3) vc(3) oe yeh ae () UX =2= ‘(5 3 or pa zyetercedet POD a-to(2) = 4.-6,0025= 09379 tip UX = C LY 44¢ 1) 203125 <= (3) + c(3) 0.6875 1 wel) * cf) - a) Pax <4)= "C2 (5 479Probability Distribution® «) Complete binomial probability distribution _ x, | pux,=ae" i PLX, =9) | I px, == 6 : ality, chance for a person with blood type O” is 0.15. A perso Exam 62: Me. ‘0, persons were tested for blood group. What is the probabil that four out of these ten persons’ blood group match with the patient’s blood group? Solution: Here = 10, X = Number of persons with blood type O p=015andqg=1-p= 1-0.15 = 0.85 Probability mass function for binomial distribution is: P(N =x)= "CpG X= 012,010 P(X =x)="C, (0.15)' (0.85) P(X =4)="C,(0.15)'(0.85)° ioe P(X =4)=0.0401 Example 6.3: . sped MGs Tinie with allergies report symptomatic relief with sig a lication is given i, a . the probability that it is effective in eee mes ea we Solution: Here n ho = 7, X= Numb . | P=070 and g=1-p=4~ eee for which medication is effective 180tion for binomial distribution is: mass func! © py =0,1,2.- a ity me a cet NS Ne C, (0 70) (0. 30)’ * vd C,(0- 70)‘ (0.30)" 0. * ne pl 4: Ina binomial dist parle 6 tf istribution 7 = 3 p'= 1/3. Find its mean we Then and SD ay ne 5P 3 q=l-p=l- mf OO B 4 and variance is 3. Find its example 6.5: ina binomial distribution mean = parameters- solution* AS nee npq = 3=npq-— --(i) mean =P 4= genp---— (i) put in (i) jedq=d 4 =t Put value of pin (ii) I l carina =16, Hence parameters are n=16 and P= 6.3.6 Hyper-geomet! ric expel erimen' : Atyper-geometric experimen nt is a statistical ex eriment that has the following properties: 1) Experiment con: oA" sists of "" fixed tr! ote 2) Each trial can a result in in just sible © ecomes: Call one of them 2° succe isn same 0" every trial en other as a failure: probability of success; denoted DY pr 4g1Probability Distribution one trial affect the outcome ¢,, 04) The trials are dependent; that is, the outcome " " other trials. : ay distribution 6.3.7 Hyper-geometric probability Ce ttdom variable is called a hyper The probability distribution of a hyper-geomen™. cu ; x)= geometric distribution. It is given asP(X=*) os "C, If n tio Let X= height of the pla! (a X-H aire. os. < 20 o ) ! 9.8944 0.401 32 cont of plants with height between 130 000 students whose mean height is as how many 0.4931 nd 160 cm js 49.31% (P(x >60)=1 FA Jail Road, Faisalabad-| (Office of the Registrar) ecunD meANctt Dated: 23 / 04 / 2024 OT NoSR-22YIR24 320. The View Chancellor as authorized by the Academie Council at its meeting held on 09.05.2023 has approved the following teaching schedule for the termination of current Spring Semester, 2023-2024 and commencement of Summer Session, 2023-2024 / Winter Semester, 2024-2025 for regular students to be observed at all Campuses of the University: ‘SEBING SEMESTER. 2025-2024 4 Camntenced fromm 04.01.2028 Wi Termination of semester 20053026 {aller completion of 19 weeks lnc hading Exasninalion te) Noe The Onstie resol of final Exanvinations should be tvached in the offee of the Controller of Examinations within @20}wenty lays (Le. wptn 10-04-2024) frown the termination dite of semester Positively. The signed hard copy af the sain should also Bo sent to his Te for record On the expiry Of tai date the result, if pening will be erartained by the coacerned office after due permision of the View Chancellor), ‘Dresk SUNIMER SESSION, 2023-2024 + 3705300 (weeds aching enrolment aul 3207300 euumutont ec} ees ‘WINTER SEMESTER, 2024-2023 Commencement of Semener 3907300 {ee subonistion aed Uncle 08 307 7 Hank working ays) “ ‘Start of claves 0708300 This is in continuation of this office notification No SR-222/29-24/12357 dated 09-17-2023 Sd. (TARIQMALMUD GILL ) Registrar Endst. No SR-22222-23/_3298..3380 Dated. 23rd April, 2024, Copy of above in forwarded for information and necessary action to - 1, Pro-Vie Chancelloe 2 All Deans Directors Directcw Genera], NIFSAT. 3, Principal Officers, Students’ Affairs, Hostels} Chief Hall Wanden and Estate Management 4, Principal, UAF Sub-Campuses, T.T. Singh, Nurewals-Vehari and Depalpur-OLara 5. Principal, UAF Community College, PARS. 6. Ilall WardenyAtale, Feriale and PARS Hosiels) 7. All Chairmen of Teaching Departments inthe University. %. Associate Hall Wardens, 9 Associate and Deputy Directors Students" Affairs. 10. Senior Tutor. 11. Associate Seniot Tutors 12. Controtier of Examinations. 13. Librarian, 14. Treasurer. 15, All Heads of Sections woeking under the Registrar, Treasurer and Controller of Examinations. 16. Accounts Officer Fee). 11. Deputy Registrar(G). 18, Deputy Registrar/PS to Vice Chancellor, 19. P-A, to Registrar, = ( shiek an ) Deputy Reeves tyUNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE, FAISALABAD Jail Road, Faisalabad-Pakistan-38040 www. pk (Office of the Registrar) ‘STUDENTS" RECORD BRANCH Dated: 23 / 04 / 2024 NOTIFICATION No.SR-2/22/23-24/ 3294 . The Vice Chancellor as authorized by the Academic Council at its meeting held on 09.05.2023 has approved the following teaching schedule for the termination of current Spring Semester, 2023-2024 and commencement of Summer Session, 2023-2024 / Winter Semester, 2024-2025 for regular students to be observed at all Campuses of the University:~ ‘SPRING SEMESTER, 2023-2024 i ‘Commenced from 08.01.2024 ii, Termination of semester 20.05.2024 (after completion of 19 weeks including Examination ete.) Note: ‘The On-line results of final Examinations should be reached in the office of the Controller of Examinations within (20)twenty days (Le. upto 10-06-2024) from the termination date of semester positively. The signed hard copy of the same should also be sent to his office for record. On the expiry of said date the result, if pending, will be entertained by the concemed office after due permission of the Vice Chancellor). Break 21.05.2024 to 26-05-2024 SUMMER SESSION, 2023-2024 + 27,08,2024 10 (8 weeks including enrolment and 2 22072024 examinations ete.) Break + 23-07-2024 10 28-07-2024 WINTER SEMESTER, 2024-2025 i Commencement of Semester 2 29.07202410 (Fee submission and Enrolment 06.08.2024 7 Bank working days) ii, Start of classes : 07.08.2024 This is in continuation of this office notification No.SR-2/22/23-24/12357 dated 09-12-2023. sar. (TARIQ MAHMUD GILL ) Registrar Endst, No SR-2/22/22-23/_3295- 3350. Dated: 23rd April, 2024. Copy of above is forwarded for information and necessary action to:- Pro-Vice Chancellor. All Deans/Directors/Director General, NIFSAT. 3. Principal Officers, Students’ Affairs, (HostelsChief Hall Warden and 4. Principal, UAF Sub-Campuses, T.T. Singh, Burewals-Vehari and DeralparOkea 5. Principal, UAF Community College, PARS. 6. Hall Wardens(Male, Female and PARS Hostels), 7. All Chairmen of Teaching Departments in the University. 8, Associate Hall Wardens. : 9. Associate and Deputy Directors Students’ Affairs. 10. Senior Tutor. 11. Associate Senior Tutors 12, Controller of Examinations. 13. Librarian, 14. Treasurer. 15. All Heads of Scetions working under the Registrar, Treasurer and Controller of Examinations. 16. Accounts Officer(F 17, Deputy Registrar(G). 18. Deputy Registrar/PS to Vice Chancellor. 19. P.A. to Reais = ( shire AN ) Deputy Registrar(SR) ay