ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

SECURITY DIMENSIONS WITH APPLICATION TO DATA FROM

HOUSEHOLD IN EKWENDENI, MZIMBA DISTRICT.

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Chapter overview

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life (World Food Summit, 1996). The
definition of food security comprises four components namely; food
availability, food access, food utilization and food stability. For a household,
community and nation to be food secure it means food is available, affordable
and well utilized. On the other hand, food insecurity is defined as lack of access
by members of society and nations to enough food throughout the year to live
active and healthy life (Makombe et al., 2010). Food insecurity indicators, of
which poverty is the major one, continue to exist among Malawians today. The
Integrated Household Survey 1998 indicates that approximately 65.3 percent of
the population of Malawi nation is poor and cannot meet their food
requirements and basic non-food needs annually (Food Security Policy, 2006).

Climate change is considered as posing the greatest threat to agriculture

production and food security in malawi, due to their low capacity to effectively
cope with a possible adaptation mechanism to decrease in yields among others
(Shah et al., 2008; Nellemann et al. 2009. Food insecurity results from a
complex interaction of multiple stressors (socioeconomic and environmental)
over long time periods and with sudden shocks.
1.2 Background Information
Lake Malawi covers about one-fifth of Malawi, a landlocked nation in southern
Africa. The country is surrounded by Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zambia.
Malawi is divided into three regions: northern, central, and southern, and 28
districts. The country has one of the highest population densities in Sub-Saharan
Africa, with an estimated 16 million people. The country is fortunate to have
abundant resources, including water, land, and agriculture. The administrative
map of Malawi (2011) shows the country's geographical location and
administrative divisions. (Oxfam international, 2009).

Malawi's economy and social structure are mostly dependent on agriculture,

which generates 36% of the country's GDP, 87% of jobs, 65% of raw materials
used in manufacturing, 64% of income for rural inhabitants, and 90% of foreign
exchange profits. For more than 85% of people living in rural areas, agriculture
is their main source of income. However, in the last ten years, excessive
agricultural productivity has resulted from a lack of policies and erratic weather
patterns. (Government of Malawi, 200).

The Malawian government understands how critical it is to boost the

productivity of smallholder farmers in order to promote agricultural growth and
combat poverty. They think that medium-term growth will be driven by
expanding and diversifying output. About 2 million households are smallholder
farmers, who oversee 4.5 million hectares of land. They produce only enough to
survive, using little input and little output. 31% of farmers farm between 0.5 and
1.0 hectares, 55% less than 1.0 hectares, and the majority, less than 0.5 hectares.
(GOM, 2010). The estate subsector in Malawi is the primary source of foreign
exchange earnings, accounting for 20% of total agricultural production but
generating over 80% of agricultural exports. This sector operates on either
freehold or leased land. Smallholder production occurs on customary land,
where leaders have authority to cultivate and transfer land. However, due to
population growth, the extent of land holdings has decreased and fragmented. In
Malawi, the average size of a land holding per household is 1.2 hectares, while
the average land per person is 0.33 hectares.

Malawi is one of the world’s least urbanized countries, with only 15% of the
population resident in urban areas at the time of the last census in 2008.
Malawi’s urbanization rate is also modest compared to other African countries,
at 3.7-3.9% per year for the period 19982008.6 (GoM, 200). The urbanization
rate is suppressed by high rates of rural population growth, competing
agricultural labour destinations as rural economic migrants move to other rural
areas, migration out of the country especially to South Africa, and weak
economic pull factors in the cities.7 There are few formal sector employment
opportunities to draw workers into Malawi’s cities, and the high cost of living
relative to incomes makes it difficult for households to sustain themselves in
urban areas(GoM, 200). Moreover, there is a pervading ethos in government and
among donors and international agencies that the country’s development path
should continue to be based on rural agricultural production. As a result, there
are few policies to address the growing problem of urban poverty. Also, there is
a high degree of circular migration between urban and rural areas, which means
that many more Malawians are temporary urban residents than is suggested by
census data

1.4 Problem statement

Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, affecting
various dimensions such as availability, access, utilization, and stability of food
systems. As temperatures rise, precipitation patterns shift, and extreme weather
events become more frequent, the agricultural sector faces unprecedented
challenges that could undermine food production and distribution . Climate
change can also exacerbate poverty levels through its impact on agriculture,
which is a primary source of income for many communities . As agricultural
productivity declines due to climate impacts, food prices may increase, making
it difficult for vulnerable populations to afford sufficient nutrition. As a result
there will be an increase in malnutrition.it is therefore from this perspective that
this research will assesse the impact of climate change on food security
dimensions with application to data from households at yazunguluka nkhata
village .
1.5 Study justification
By planting drought tolerant and fast maturing food crops , implementation of
irrigation fed agriculture rather than rain fed agriculture, Improving public
awareness and understanding about current climate change situations and its
potential negative impacts, Climate change impact and disaster risk
management, Promote agricultural pest (weed, insect and disease pest)
management strategy options and Selection and breeding of livestock to adapt
to climate change impacts and improve livestock grazing management systems
will helps the smallholder farmers to reduce the impact of climate change on
food security dimensions in an area of yazunguluka nkhata ,hence reducing food
insecurity. . Therefore, the study on assessing the impact of climate
change on of food security dimensions is important because will help
stakeholder like government, private sectors and donors to intervene in
implementing strategies farmers can follow in older to ensure food
security. The findings will also help the policy maker to identify and
understand the reasons why multiple factors that influence access to food
are not well understood. This will enable government and other
stakeholders to introduce measures to deal with these problems so as to
ensure food security both at household and national

1.6 Purpose of study

The aim of this study will help us to identify and understand the negative impact
of climate change on food security dimensions and the findings will help to
come up with different solutions on how best we can adapt our agriculture
systems and policies in response to these challenges to avoid its consequences
to people.
1.7 Study objective
1.7.1 Main objective
To assess the impact of climate change on food security dimensions with
application to data from households in yazunguluka nkhata village.

1.7.2 Specific objectives

1. To identify food availability and utilization at yazunguluka nkhata village.

2. To determine food access in yazunguluka nkhata village.

3. To assess the food stability from households at yazunguluka nkhata village

1.8 Research questions

1.8.1Primary question
What are the main causes of food insecurity in urban households of
yazunguluka nkhata village.?
1.8.2 Secondary questions
1. How is food available at yazunguluka nkhata village?
2. How do people access food in rural households of yazunguluka nkhata
village?
3. How do people achieve food stability in rural households of yazunguluka
nkhata village?
1.9 Chapter conclusion
In conclusion, climate change significantly impacts all dimensions of food
security—availability, access, utilization, and stability—creating a complex web
of challenges that require urgent attention from policymakers and stakeholders
at all levels. Addressing these issues will necessitate comprehensive strategies
that include sustainable agricultural practices.to ensure food security. The
chapter has also discussed about statement of the problem, justification of study,
purpose of study, research questions and objectives of study.
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIE

2.1 Chapter Overview

This chapter presents a review of the literature the global, Sub-Saharan Africa
and Malawian status on the five dimensions of food security in rural areas. The
relevant studies in other developing countries will also be reviewed with an
interest of emphasizing on the findings and methodological issues in developing
countries. The literature provides evidence on the availability, accessibility,
utilization and stability of food in rural areas.
2.2 Food availability
2.2.1 Global level
Climate change affects food availability through its adverse impacts on
crop yields, and fish and livestock productivity, especially in Sub-Saharan
Africa
(SSA) and South Asia, where most of the food insecure people live. Indeed,
Zougmoré et al. (2018) suggest that “[…] without appropriate interventions,
climate change and variability will affect agricultural yields, food security and
add to the presently unacceptable levels of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa”. The
effects of CC will be particularly severe in regions where agriculture is
predominantly rain-fed such as in SSA, which makes it highly vulnerable to
climate fluctuations and droughts (Adhikari et al., 2015; Cooper et al., 2008;
Muchuru & Nhamo, 2019). Webersik and Wilson (2009) put that “African
economies are closely linked to natural resources and rely heavily on
agriculture,
largely rain fed […]. It is predicted that Africa will be particularly vulnerable to
climate change and climate variability associated with biodiversity loss, food
insecurity, water scarcity and an increase in drought frequency” (p. 400). CC
will
reduce the yields and productions of the main staple crops such as rice
(Akinbile
et al., 2015; van Oort & Zwart, 2018), wheat (Trnka et al., 2019) and maize
(Davenport et al., 2018; Freduah et al., 2019; Murray-Tortarolo et al., 2018;
Waha et al., 2013), CC is also predicted to affect livestock productivity (Godber
& Wall, 2014; Mare et al., 2018; Naah & Braun, 2019). Ramasamy (2010) put
that “Rising temperatures, more intense droughts, floods, and greater weather
variability all mean productivity losses to crops and livestock” (p. 185). Some
studies also report an increase in the incidence of animal diseases that is
attributed to CC (Hussain et al., 2016). Furthermore, the impacts of CC on crops
and livestock are strongly linked; for instance, the decrease in the growth of
forages reduce livestock weight gains (Butt et al., 2005). Further studies also
analyse the potential adverse effects of CC on fisheries (Ding et al., 2017; Lam
et
al., 2012; Lauria et al., 2018). Referring to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna
(Bangladesh/India) and the Volta (Ghana) deltas, Lauria et al. (2018) suggest
that
“changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity
and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas” (p. 1566).
The impacts of CC on fisheries, and consequently fish-based economies, are
expected to be particularly high in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) (Dey
et
al., 2016; Moustache, 2017).
2.2.2 Region level
The risk of climate change impact on food security is the key challenge of
African continent. Due to climate change impact, the African continent became
the most vulnerable and the most food insecure region, because of its reliance
on climate sensitive and vulnerable economic sectors (rain fed agriculture) as
well as its lower financial, technical, and technological capacity and primitive
farming techniques to adapt. In addition, the presence of the highest number of
people who depended on primitive and climate sensitive agriculture, made the
African continent to be the most food insecure region in the World. This highly
climate sensitive economic sector /rain fed agriculture is a means of survival for
African people/or the source of livelihood and food security, implying that the
impact of climate change severely affects the food security and livelihoods of
African people. On the other hand, African continent is the most drought prone
area, especially Sub Saharan Africa region, in which the drought repeatedly
occurs and causing chronic food in security and mal nutrition affects so many
African people (hunger, displacement and death).

2.2.3 Local level

Malawi is vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed
agriculture and heat-sensitive crops. Twenty-eight percent of the total Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), and 61 percent of the land area is used for crop
production and livestock, with farmers representing 80 percent of the total
population (FAO, Citation2018). Maize is a staple crop, grown by 97 percent of
farmers and contributes about 54 percent of total calorie intake in Malawi
(Minot, Citation2010; Warnatzsch & Reay, Citation2020). Maize is sensitive to
the increases in temperatures, which are projected to rise in Malawi by 1.1–3.0
°C by 2060 (GFDRR, Citation2011).

Malawi is impacted by adverse weather events which increase both poverty and
food insecurity through failed harvests and reduced agricultural income (Baquie
& Fuje, Citation2020; FAO, Citation2018; Serdeczny et al., Citation2017).
Extreme weather events in Malawi are already increasing in frequency. Over the
past 20 years, severe drought occurred in 2002, 2005, and 2016 and flooding in
2005, 2015, 2016, and 2019 (Baquie & Fuje, Citation2020)

2.8. Chapter Conclusion

The chapter highlighted on various studies conducted at global, regional and

local level about the assessing on impact of climate change on food security
dimension. The chapter also elaborated on the Chi – square test and its
assumptions and the conceptual framework of the study.

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Chapter overview
Research methodology is a way to systematically solve the research problem. It
may be understood as a science of studying how research is done scientifically
(Kothari, 2004). He further points out that in it, various steps that are generally
adopted by a researcher when studying research problem along with the logic
behind them are studied.
Research methods are all the methods or techniques that are used to research
(Burns and Grove, 2003). Research methods or techniques, thus, refer to the
methods the researcher uses in performing a research operation in other words,
all the methods, which are used by the researcher during the course of studying
his research problem, are referred to as research methods (Polit and Beck,
2004).
Therefore, this chapter will elaborate the methods to be used in this study. The
discussion includes the study site, study approach and design, study population
and samples, sample size determination, sampling technique, data collection
emphasizing on data sources as well as data collection instruments.
3.2 Study site
Malawi is divided administratively into Northern, Central and Southern Regions
and Mzuzu is the administrative centre for the Northern Region, which has a
population of around 1.7 million (Manda, 2013). It is the country’s third largest
city, although it is much smaller than Lilongwe, the capital, and Blantyre, the
commercial capital. The municipal boundaries encompass an area of about
144km2 including forested and peri-urban areas. Chiputula is amongst the areas
that have high population in Mzuzu. It is found on latitude and longitude. The
estimated terrain elevation above sea level is. This area was chosen because it is
one of the urban slum area in Mzuzu characterized by poor housing structure
and high levels of poverty in the areas.

3.3 Research design and approach

Research design is a guideline for the research process in order to attain the
intended results that will be a replication of reality (Burns and Groove, 2003).
This study used quantitative research approaches. Cross sectional study will be
used. A cross-sectional study is one that produces a snapshot of a population at a
particular point in time. Nonetheless, inductive research approach is the
approach to be used in this study. This approach will be used pertaining to the
research questions which have been generated, the aim and the objectives that
need to be achieved through the study. in quantitative research technique,
questionnaires will be used to ask questions pertaining to the problem, this is to
be done at the study area (Chiputula) whose data collected from the study will
be presented in pie charts, graphs and tables
3.4 Study Population and sample
Data for this study was collected from urban dwellers at yazunguluka nkhata
village, who were more immersed in the cash economy but earn incomes that
are often erratic, unreliable and small (Kutiwa, 2010). For example, households
that derive their income from many sources, including wages, salaried labour,
remittances and small enterprises, which include basket and brick making
(Crush et al., 2010). Information was gathered from two areas. 72 households
were involved in this research. The households were drawn from each area
randomly. Therefore, the sampling frame consisted of 72 households. The study
area provided adequate sample for the researcher to use random sampling
technique and to obtain quality data for the study.
3.5 Sample size determination
This research study will target the maximum number of 70 participants. To
determine this sample size, we will use the Cochran’s, in which confidence will
be chosen whether at 90%, 95% 0r at 99%

2
z p (1− p)
n=
e2

Where

𝑛 is the sample size

𝑍𝛼/2 is the Z score

P is the population proportion

E is the error margin

Using the confidence level of 95% which gives us 1.96. When the margin of
error is unknown the set 5% which gives us 0.05

We get n = 1.96* 1.96 * 0.049* 0.951 / 0.05* 0.05

= 71.60588736

The calculations give us 71.60588736 to the nearest whole number 72

3.6 Sampling techniques
Sampling techniques are methods used in selecting a sample frame of the study
out of the population (Polit and Beck, 2004). In this study simple random
sampling technique was used. Simple random Sampling technique was used
when collecting data from the areas which were involved in this research. The
households were chosen using simple random sampling technique where 72
participants from two areas were selected. This method was used to avoid
prejudice and favouritism. Therefore, 72 people participated in this research.
This technique was chosen because it was considered to be the best technique
for gathering information that was required from the respondents in relation to
the topic under study. In addition to that, the researcher had the knowledge of
using this technique.

3.7 Data collection method

Data collection is the process of gathering quantitative and qualitative
information on specific variables with the aim of evaluating outcomes or
assembling actionable insights (Angeliki, 2017). The researcher used
questionnaires in data collection. The questionnaire comprised of closed ended
questions only. The closed ended questions were used to get short answers from
the participants.

3.8 Data sources and instruments

The study consists of both primary and secondary data. Primary data was
collected from participants through interviews and questionnaires. Secondary
data was obtained through searching on the internet, published books, journals
and government documents.
3.13 Ethical consideration
Ethical issues considered in this study included the rights of respondents,
honesty of the researcher and confidentiality of the respondents.
3.1.4. Chapter conclusion
The chapter has addressed the methodological approach of study that will help
to in the data collection to the point of data analysis. The chapter has also
provided information on the instruments to be used in the data collection and
the category of people that will be included in the sample. Furthermore, the
chapter has explained statistical methods of interpreting the analyzed data

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