An Assessment of Tanzania’s

Agricultural Production, Climate

Change, Agricultural Trade and Food
Security

Tumbo S.D., Mahoo, H.F, Mutabazi, K.D., Kahimba, F.C.,

Kadigi, I.L and Mnimbo T.

Centre for Research and Development (CERDA

Sokoine University of Agriculture

KIPPRA Working Paper No. 22

2017
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

KIPPRA in Brief
The Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) is an
autonomous institute whose primary mission is to conduct public policy research
leading to policy advice. KIPPRA’s mission is to produce consistently high-quality
analysis of key issues of public policy and to contribute to the achievement
of national long-term development objectives by positively influencing the
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the public sector. KIPPRA therefore produces a body of well-researched and
documented information on public policy, and in the process assists in formulating
long-term strategic perspectives. KIPPRA serves as a centralized source from
which the Government and the private sector may obtain information and advice
on public policy issues.

UNECA in Brief
Established by the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) of the United Nations
(UN) in 1958 as one of the UN’s five regional commissions, ECA’s mandate is
to promote the economic and social development of its member States, foster
intra-regional integration, and promote international cooperation for Africa’s
development. Made up of 54 member States, and playing a dual role as a regional
arm of the UN and as a key component of the African institutional landscape,
ECA is well positioned to make unique contributions to address the Continent’s
development challenges.

Published 2017
© Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis
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The Working Paper Series disseminates results of ongoing research at the Institute.
The papers in the series cover specific policy issues in detail and are meant to
provide policy makers and researchers with background information that can be
used in developing refined discussion and policy papers. The papers are authored
and reviewed by KIPPRA researchers and disseminated to provoke debate and
solicit comments.
This paper has been published under the KIPPRA/UNECA Project on Regional
Assessment of Agricultural Production, Climate Change, Agricultural Trade and
Food Security in the East African Community.

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Foreword
Climate change and climate change variability is a threat to food production
patterns, thus exacerbating food and nutrition insecurity across Africa. Therefore,
tackling poverty, hunger and food security is a priority for the Africa Union Agenda
2063 which underscores the right of Africans to live healthy and productive lifes.
Further, the African Union has set a target to eliminate hunger and food insecurity
by 2025 towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 on ending
hunger, achieving food security and improving nutrition. Unfortunately, Africa is
not on track in meeting these targets mainly because the region is not producing
enough food due to climate change and low adoption of technology. However,
climate change has variable impacts on food production, with both production
losses and gains across the region. As a result, regional trade is critical for
facilitating the distribution of agricultural products to enhance food security in
the region.
The East Africa Community (EAC) region is particularly vulnerable to climate
change. The region is already experiencing increased climate change impacts,
including extreme weather conditions, persistent drought, floods, and landslides
and rising sea level which threaten food security and efforts to eradicate poverty.
Despite the huge potential to produce enough food, the agricultural production
system in the region is mainly rainfed, which consequently leads to high food and
nutrition insecurity.
Finding solutions to perennial food security challenges in the EAC is crucial and
urgent as climate change impacts intensify in frequency and severity. Looking
beyond just agricultural production systems is thus critical in tackling this peril.
Thus, there is need to apply other approaches such as the nexus approach which
allows for evaluating integrative systems where, for instance, trade facilitates food
security in a changing climate environment. Although agriculture production
is vulnerable to climate change, food security is not necessary a result of low
production but a combination of other factors such as poor food distribution
caused by perverse subsidies and other trade barriers. The EAC has been able to
attain a common market status, which could facilitate trade in the region and thus
mitigate food shortages.
Despite the various measures and programmes adopted in EAC, some parts of the
region continue to face food deficits due to restrictive trade policies and barriers
to trade. Opportunities exist for adopting existing policy frameworks by member
countries to address food security needs.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Preface
The project on Regional Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Production,
Trade in Agricultural Production and Food Security in East African Community
(EAC) was carried with support from the ACPC-CLIMDEV Work Programme.
The ClimDev-Africa Programme is an initiative of the African Union Commission
(AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the
African Development Bank (AfDB). It is mandated at the highest level by African
leaders (AU Summit of Heads of State and Government). The Programme was
established to create a solid foundation for Africa’s response to climate change
and works closely with other African and non-African institutions and partners
specialized in climate and development.
Over the last few years, our understanding and certainty about how climate is
changing and the possible impacts this could have has grown immensely. This
notwithstanding, agricultural production systems in the EAC region are highly
vulnerable to climate change, consequently affecting food and nutrition security.
The region is the most developed regional economic community (REC) in Africa,
and cross border trade plays a critical role in facilitating food security. In response,
the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa–African Climate Policy
Centre (ACPC) is increasing its efforts to improve the capacity of EAC member
states for mainstreaming climate change impacts in development policies,
frameworks and plans.
The three-year project was launched in May 2014 covering Burundi, Kenya,
Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The activities carried in this study were linked
to the ClimDev-Africa Programme work stream II, which focuses on solid policy
analysis for decision support, and was spearheaded by the Kenya Institute for
Public Policy Research Analysis (KIPPRA). The overall objective of the project was
to assess whether or not agricultural production systems and trade policies in EAC
can be adjusted to alleviate the impact of climate change on food security, and
promote sustainable development. The project outputs include pre-project report,
country scoping studies, indepth EAC studies on climate change, crop production
model, economic policy and trade and finally a comprehensive regional report.

iv
Acknowledgements
The study was conceptualized and commissioned by the African Climate Policy
Centre (ACPC), United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), under
the leadership of Dr Fatima Denton, Director of the Special Initiative Division,
UNECA. Dr Tom Owiyo and Dr Johnson Nkem, senior experts at ACPC, guided
the conceptual framing and provided oversight during implementation. Regular
technical support was provided by ACPC researchers, Dr Wifran Moufouma Okia,
Mr Nassirou Ba, Dr Habtamou Adessou, and research fellows Yosef Amha and
Rivaldo.
The study was conducted as a part of the activities of the Climate Change and
Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Programme supported by the UK
Department for International Development (DfID), European Union Commission,
Norway, Sweden, France, Nordic Development Fund, and the United States
Agency for International Development (USAID).
The Executive Director of KIPPRA and the Executive Secretary of UNECA would
like to acknowledge the KIPPRA technical team comprising Nancy Laibuni
(Project Coordinator), Dr August Muluvi, Dr Christopher Onyango, Mr John
Nyangena, Mr Simon Githuku, and Mr Nixon Murathi; and the project consultants
Dr Richard Mulwa, Dr Miriam Omolo, Dr Wilfred Nyangena, Prof. Caleb Mireri,
and Dr Wellington Mulinge. In addition, we appreciate the Eastern and Southern
Africa Region Office of the World Metrological Organization, led by Dr Elijah
Mukhala and the consultants, Mr Nicholas Maingi and Dr Joshua Ngaina for their
contributions to the project.
The regional Partner Institutions included Economic Policy Research Centre
(EPRC)–Uganda team lead by Dr Isaac Shinyekwa, Sokoine University–Tanzania
team led by Prof. Siza Tumbo, University of Burundi team led by Dr Alex
Ndayiragije, and Kigali Independent University team led by Mr Paul Muzungu.
The participation of the stakeholders in various stages of the preparation of the
report was highly valuable in enriching the report.
The Economic Commission for Africa and KIPPRA would like to express their
appreciation to all the government Ministries, State Departments and Agencies in
Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda for their active participation and
providing the data and information used in preparing the report.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Executive Summary
Agriculture is the mainstay of Tanzania’s economy. The sector contributes
significantly to national GDP and export earnings, supplies raw materials for agro-
industries, supports rural livelihoods and feeds the urban population. Agriculture
is important in managing inflation because it constitutes over half of the inflation
basket as reflected in consumer price indices. However, the sector is dominated
by smallholder farmers characterised by small family farms of around one hectare
with limited industrial inputs and access to modern farm technologies.
The agriculture sector is accorded the highest priority in the national development
policies as an engine of growth and poverty reduction. The main policy goal is
to achieve food security and eradicate poverty and hunger through agriculture
development and transformation. However, the sector’s growth rate has stagnated
at around 4 per cent in the last decade. The sector need to grow much faster (6%)
than it has been over the past decade.
Productivity in crop agriculture is still low at around 1-2 tonnes per hectare for
cereals and grain legumes, which are central to the national food security. The
sector is predominantly rain-fed and therefore prone to the vagaries of weather,
which is expected to intensify with climate change. Tanzania has a huge potential
of advancing its agriculture sector. Less than a quarter of its arable land (44
million) is currently cultivated. Smallholder farmers manage around 14 million
hectare and large-scale commercial farming accounts for 1.5 million hectares.
The country is using less than 2 per cent of its irrigation potential. The use of
productivity-enhancing inputs, particularly both organic and inorganic fertilizer,
is overly limited. Productivity can also be improved through better agronomic and
soil-water management.
Tanzania has a huge potential in livestock production, ranking second in Africa
after Ethiopia in terms of number of livestock heads (20 million cattle and 17
million goats and sheep). However, the contribution of the livestock sector
to national GDP is still around 18 per cent, and to agriculture 15 per cent. The
livestock sector is dominated by indigenous cattle (80%) kept mainly under agro-
pastoral system for dual purpose of supplying meat and milk. Only around 6 per
cent of cattle are under commercial and smallholder dairy production systems.
Productivity in the livestock sector, especially in the traditional system, is low.
Tanzania is a fairly food secure country. When food security is envisioned beyond
the pillar of availability – to access, stability and utilization – the country has
miles to stride before achieving sustainable food security. Over the vast country
and across seasons, there is normally localized food insecurity due to locational
crop failures of varying magnitudes. The food security risks are made worse by
a poorly integrated food system that does not enable movement of foods from
surplus to deficit regions efficiently and affordably.
The Government of Tanzania has implemented a number substantial programmes
of trade liberalization that started in the 1980s. By 1990, virtually all restrictions
on private trade in grains had been removed. Since then, food trade has been
liberalized, thus encouraging private sector participation. However, trade of food

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 Executive summary

crops is occasionally interrupted by export bans by the government in cases of

anticipated food shortage mainly due to drought.
Agricultural food trade has not grown to the anticipated pace to contribute
to growth, livelihood improvements and food security. Due to fluctuations in
domestic supply from local production and demand, Tanzania exports and
imports food products. The major food products envisaged in the export and
import trading portfolio are maize and rice. Others include wheat, sunflower,
sorghum, beans and pulses. Over almost a decade, the annual growth in quantity
and value of major food exports has been fluctuating, with net export balances in
most of the years (6 out of 9 years). However, the global export share of Tanzania
is infinitesimally low; for example, 0.1 per cent for maize. In contrast with food
exports, food imports increase during droughts. The terms of trade in food crops
is sensitive to the quality of the growing seasons.
The impact of climate change on the performance of the agriculture sector is real.
Projections indicate that different agro-ecological zones will be warmer with a
temperature rise of 0.5o-2oC across the country. The impact of climate change on
rainfall over the country are mixed with respect to the amount of precipitation–
with a decrease of up to 200 mm in some parts and an increase of up to 300 mm
in other areas. Crop yields will increase in some parts and decrease in others. Food
trade will be affected as well. With reduced yields, prices will rise and vice versa.
In this regard, climate change will be associated with challenges and opportunities
at the same time. With increasing precipitation in the currently drier areas,
productivity might improve, ceteris paribus. A slight increase of temperature in
cooler places of southern highlands could shorten the maturity period of maize.
Tanzania has a landscape of policies, strategies and programmes to improve
agricultural productivity and enhance agricultural trade to deliver food security
and poverty reduction. In the policy planning processes, efforts are normally
made to mainstream important cross-cutting issues such as climate change,
HIV-AIDS, gender and ICT. The importance of mainstreaming climate change
in the agricultural policies and plans has been increasingly acknowledged. The
agriculture sector was the first to initiate the development of the agriculture
climate change resilience plan, which has been recently endorsed by the sector
management. The policy challenge around agricultural production, trade, climate
change and food security is not lack of policies but how to coordinate policy plans
and actions in different agriculture line sectors.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Abbreviations and Acronyms

ACRP Agriculture Climate Resilience Plan

AFSP Accelerated Food Security Project
AMP Agriculture Marketing Policy
ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Plan
CAADP Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Plan
DDB duty draw back
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EAC East African Community
ESRF Economic and Social Research Foundation
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
GDP Gross Domestic Product
MAFC Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives
MMA Match Maker Associates
MT Metric Tonnes
NAIVS National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme
NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action
NBS National Bureau of Statistics
NSGRP National Growth and Reduction of Poverty
PPP Public Private Partnerships
SADC Southern Africa Development Community
SAGCOT Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania
SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises
SPS sanitary and phytosanitary
UAE United Arab Emirates
URT United Republic of Tanzania
WFP World Food Programme
WRS Warehouse Receipt System

viii
Table of Contents
Foreword ................................................................................................................iii
Preface ...................................................................................................................iv
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................. v
Executive Summary ..............................................................................................vi
Abbreviations and Acronyms ..............................................................................viii

1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Linking the Key Concepts ........................................................................... 1
1.2 Objectives of the Study ...............................................................................3
1.3 Organization of the Study ..........................................................................4

2. Agricultural Production, Food Security and Trade .........................................5

2.1 Agricultural Production .............................................................................5
2.2 Food Security .............................................................................................6
2.2.1 Tanzania’s food security from a seasonal perspective .......................... 7
2.2.2 Crop production ...................................................................................... 7
2.2.3 Livestock production ..............................................................................8
2.3 Trade in Agricultural Production ..............................................................9
2.3.1 Overview
2.3.2 Maize sub-sector .....................................................................................9
2.3.3 Rice sub-sector ...................................................................................... 13
2.3.4 Other crops sub-sector ......................................................................... 16
2.3.5 Livestock................................................................................................ 18

3. Policies in Agricultural Production, Food Security and Trade......................20

3.1 Policies Governing Agricultural Production and Food Security..............20
3.1.1 Agricultural-related policies ..................................................................20
3.1.2 Policy frameworks and plans ................................................................25
3.2 Policies in Agricultural Trade.........................................................................32

4. Climate Change and Its Implications on Agricultural Production, Food ........

Security and Trade .........................................................................................38
4.1 Climate Change and Its Implications on Agricultural Production ..........38
4.2 Climate Change, Food Security and Trade ..............................................43

5. Conclusion and Recommendations ...............................................................47

5.1 Conclusion ................................................................................................47
5.2 Recommendations....................................................................................49

References ...................................................................................................... 51

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1. Introduction

1.1 Linking the Key Concepts

In Tanzania, agriculture is predominantly characterized as a smallholder business,
with farm sizes ranging from 1 to 3 hectares (ha), dedicated to subsistence with
limited marketable surpluses. Smallholders have been responsible for more than
80 per cent of Tanzania’s agricultural exports dominated by traditional exports,
including coffee, tea, cashew nuts, tobacco and sisal. Agriculture accounts for 30
per cent of total exports. The contribution of agriculture to GDP has declined
over the decade from about a half in the 1990s to around a quarter most recently.
The declining GDP share of agriculture is due to the increasing importance of
the mineral sector. Further, the agricultural sector is characterized by traditional
farming methods with low levels of technology adoption, low utilization of
modern inputs and inefficient resource allocation (Mashindano and Kaino, 2009).
It has poor linkages to other domestic sectors, with a poorly developed marketing
system, and under-developed infrastructure that affects access to both domestic
and international markets.
The agricultural sector is the main contributor to food security and is the
primary source of livelihood for more than 80 per cent of the population (United
Republic of Tanzania-URT, 2012). However, agriculture is characterized by high
production risks due to its dependence on unpredictable and highly variable
weather, and low returns on investment. Due to the country’s dependence on
agriculture, all strategies for sustainable development have identified agriculture
and food security as critical pillars for poverty alleviation. The food crops sub-
sector accounts for about 65 per cent of agricultural GDP, while cash crops account
for about 10 per cent; about a quarter of the remaining percentage is accounted
for by the livestock sub-sector (URT, 2006). Within food crops, maize is the most
important accounting for over 20 per cent of total agricultural GDP followed by
rice, beans, cassava, sorghum, and wheat (URT, 2006c).
Usually, food security also addresses the issue of availability, accessibility,
utilization and stability and therefore policies guiding it are very important.
However, in the country, the link between food security and food availability
through production is very strong because most of Tanzania’s population is
involved in that sector. Essentially, food availability is more defined by what a
household is capable of producing rather than what it is capable of purchasing or
accessing in the market. Essentially, the estimated traded maize is around 3 per
cent and the remaining 96 per cent ends up being consumed at household level
(Barreiro-Hurle et al. 2014).

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

The agricultural sector’s weakness resonates with an unsatisfactory level

of food security and consequent widespread poverty and poor quality of life.
Food production has remained low, failing to meet household and national food
requirements. The dependency on agriculture as the mainstay of the economy
has made the Tanzanian economy more vulnerable to both external and internal
shocks. As a result, the food security situation in Tanzania varies from one region
to another, and from one season to another. There are some perennial pockets of
food shortages, particularly in the coastal regions of Pwani, Lindi, Mtwara and
Tanga, together with the semi-arid central regions of Dodoma and Singida, and
some parts of Shinyanga, Morogoro, Kigoma and Mara (Ashimogo, 1995).
According to the marketing policy document, the development of an efficient
agricultural marketing system is critical for fostering an agriculture sector that
generates income, creates jobs, earns foreign exchange, supplies food, and links
with industry (URT, 2008a). The overall objective of the marketing policy is to
facilitate strategic marketing of agricultural products that ensure fair returns to
all stakeholders based on a competitive, efficient and equitable marketing system.
Furthermore, it recognizes the necessity of improving the agricultural marketing
capacities by facilitating financing, promoting cooperatives, associations and
groups; improving marketing infrastructure; providing timely and adequate
agricultural marketing information services and intelligence; management of
risks; investing in agro-processing; and marketing research and development
(URT, 2008a).
Another important issue is that trade volumes and prices in Tanzania are
highly influenced by the weather. For example, maize prices in the markets tend
to reflect the amount of the locally produced crop and not on the short-term
changes in the international markets (World Bank, 2013). It was noted that higher
peaks in the domestic prices are reached after a drop in the domestic production.
Crop production oscillations are normally caused by high temporal and spatial
variability of rainfall. Trade and climate change inter-linkages with food security
are not always straightforward and, therefore, making the right policy choices is
a challenging task.
There are some policy measures that distort the food trade – including food
export ban and food import permits. These aim at ensuring that food security is
guaranteed and prices are controlled (World Bank, 2013). When the government
foresees that there will be food shortage, it allows food importation. Sometimes
the local markets are flooded with low-priced imported food, particularly rice
from Asia. This causes a decline of prices for locally produced rice and maize,
which are close substitutes for starch.

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 Introduction

In the context of food security, trade and climate change interactions, Tanzania
is holding a very important strategic position in the East and Central African
region. First, it still holds a huge amount of potential for land production of food
crops such as maize and rice, which are critical for food security, in comparison to
East African countries such as Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and Kenya. Therefore,
the future of agriculture in Tanzania has significant implications on food security
to other countries in the region. Second, it is one of the major gateways for imports
and exports of agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services for landlocked
countries such as Malawi, Zambia, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Congo-DRC.
Therefore, Tanzania’s policy guiding agricultural trade has an implication on the
other landlocked countries, which consider it as their gateway for imports and
exports.
Some of the literature linking agricultural production, food security and trade
in Tanzania has highlighted some of the key problems that exist in these three
key areas. Sectoral policies are not adequately harmonized, and are sometimes
conflicting. Whereas good policies exist and policy commitments are declared, the
implementation on the ground is curtailed by budgetary constraints. For example,
Bamwenda et al. (2013) pointed out that there is some mismatch between what is
stated in government official documents such as policies, strategies, legislations
on one hand, and what is actually implemented on the ground. Recently, the
government of Tanzania launched several initiatives such as Kilimo Kwanza. This
is plausible but there were no funds for sustainability. Other initiatives by the
government include ig Results Now (BRN), whose funding is also not very clear.

1.2 Objectives of the Study

The main objective of this study was to undertake a desk review of agricultural
production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security in Tanzania, with
the aim of understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural
production. The specific objectives were to:
(i) Appraise agricultural production and food security in the country, and trade
on food and livestock products in the face of a changing climate;
(ii) Examine country policies related to agricultural production, food security
and trade;
(iii) Evaluate the impact of climate change on food production and agricultural
trade; and

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

(iv) Recommend policies that will address resilience and risk management in
relation to climate change and agriculture, linking food production, food
security and trade.

1.3 Organization of the Study

This work was carried out as a scoping study on agricultural production, climate
change, agricultural trade and food security in Tanzania. It was carried out as a
desk study which involved review of both published and grey literature.
Section two provides a brief description of the state of Tanzania’s agricultural
production sector and how it relates to food security and trade. Section 3 presents
the policies in agricultural production, food security and trade in Tanzania while
Section 4 deals with climate change and its implications on food production and
trade. The conclusion and recommendations are discussed in Section 5.

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2. Agricultural Production, Food Security and Trade

2.1 Agricultural Production

Tanzania is endowed with enough fertile arable land, diverse climatic zones and
plenty of water sources across the country. However, only 24 per cent of about
44 million ha of the total land area suitable for agriculture is utilized, mainly
by smallholder farmers with average farm sizes of between 1 and 3 ha using
traditional cultivation methods. Only 10 per cent of the arable land is ploughed by
tractor, and production is determined by rainfall. Around 85 per cent of farmers
own fewer than four hectares of land, the average size of a cultivated farm plot
being 2.6 hectares (NBS, 2012).
Both crops and livestock are adversely affected by periodical droughts. Small-
scale farmers lack capital, skills and can only manage to cultivate for subsistence.
One third of Tanzanian farmers sell some of their produced crops (34%). Most
farmers cultivate four or more crops (53%); with maize being the main crop as it
is cultivated by 83 per cent of all farming household (NBS, 2012).
Use of agricultural inputs is quite low. Tanzania uses only nine kgs per hectare
of fertilizer, and only 10 per cent of farmers use improved seed.. Though irrigation
holds the key to stabilizing agricultural production to improve food security,
increasing farmers’ productivity and incomes and producing higher valued crops,
only 326,492 ha out of 2.3 million has of high potential land for irrigation is
developed by farmers, making them vulnerable to changes in rainfall amount and
distribution (NBS, 2012).
Agriculture production being one of the leading sectors contributing to
Tanzania’s economy and performance by contributing substantially to the GDP
accounts for about one fifth of the foreign earnings and supports the livelihoods of
more than two thirds of the population. The sector is faced by different constrains
which impedes the rapid growth of the sector; for example insufficient agricultural
extension services, low labour productivity, deficient transportation and marketing
infrastructure, and facilities. Important as it is, the agriculture sector is linked
with other sectors. It has forward linkages with the non-farm sector through agro-
processing, consumption and export; provides raw materials to industries; and is
a market for manufactured goods (URT, 2010b).
The aggregate national food availability in Tanzania is a critical balance
between food production and needs. The average yields for maize and rice
in Tanzania are far below the African average. Low productivity of cereals is
attributed to dependency on rain-fed agriculture and low usage of fertilizer, lack of
improved seeds and pesticides (URT, 2010b). Tanzania reintroduced agricultural

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

inputs subsidies in 2003/2004 to support technology adoption by smallholder

farmers in the country. This move was necessitated by the utilization level of
improved agricultural inputs which was very low by regional and international
standards. As a result, the country experienced low and declining production and
productivity. Maize production and productivity in the big four regions of the
Southern Highlands, namely Ruvuma, Mbeya, Iringa and Rukwa began to decline
because the soils required greater use of fertilizers.
The Government of Tanzania recognizes the importance and potential of
agriculture as a contributor to wealth creation and, therefore, in the 2009/2010
fiscal year agriculture received 7 per cent of the national budget allocation which
is an increase of 30 per cent over the Tsh 513.0 billion allocated in 2008/2009
(URT, 2010b).

2.2 Food Security

Food security is ranked as one of the top issues in Tanzania as explained in various
policy documents such as Vision 2025, MKUKUTA, Five Year Development Plan
(FYDP) and the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). For example,
MKUKUTA states that the Government of Tanzania is committed to ensure food and
nutritional security, environmental sustainability and climate change adaptation
and mitigation. It has also noted that at the moment, Tanzania is somehow food
secure, although this varies widely geographically. Food availability forecast for
2012/13 nationally is overall satisfactory, with food self-sufficiency ratio of 113
per cent slightly higher than 2011/12 (112%). However, major inter and intra-
regional and council variations exist due to localized food crop failures of varying
magnitudes. Food security has been fluctuating between years of surplus in good
seasons and years of deficit in poor rainfall seasons. Some regions and districts
have had food surpluses of varying magnitude on an annual basis. However, there
are still regions and districts with pockets of persistent food shortage.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC) identified
63 councils in 17 regions that may experience food shortage and will require close
monitoring. The report emphasizes the importance of looking down farther at
household levels, as national food surplus/security can mask high vulnerability
(FNSA, 2012). FEWSNET (2008) did an informal rating of food insecure areas
based on stakeholders’ perceptions through various workshops. The results
showed that 70 per cent of livelihood zones are reasonably food secure, and just
fewer than 30 per cent of livelihood zones were considered borderline (MAFC,
2010).

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 Agriculture production, food security and trade

The Government of Tanzania has made recent commitments to agricultural

reform and improvement such as the Agriculture First Programme. A growing
share of the country’s budget is being allocated to agriculture while agribusiness
development is being encouraged under programmes such as the Southern
Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT). The Government of Tanzania
is implementing the National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme (NAIVS) as part
of its efforts to achieve greater food security by increasing food production and
productivity. The World Bank supports the scaling up and implementation of the
NAIVS through the Accelerated Food Security Project (AFSP). Among African
countries, Tanzania has some of the highest levels of malnutrition. Approximately
42 per cent of children under five years suffer from malnutrition and stunting
(World Food Programme-WFP, 2012). Overall, Tanzania’s food security situation
appears to be improving but food security gains are not matching national
economic gains (Barham and Chitemi, 2008). The country’s poor farming
households need better livelihood support such as access to credit and training
so that they can improve their agricultural inputs and techniques, increase yields
and alleviate poverty.
2.2.1 Tanzania’s food security from a seasonal perspective
In most developing countries, hunger is seasonal and Tanzania is no exception.
Food shortages reportedly peaked outside the main harvest periods (Thurlow and
Pauw, 2010). According to the report, it was common for households to report the
number of times there was not enough food to eat. In (2010/11), 20 per cent of
households faced at least one situation when there was not enough food to feed
members. The zones most likely to report a food shortage were the Lake zone
(26%), Western (25%) and Central (24%). The Southern Highlands and Zanzibar
were least likely (11.5% and 7.1%). Of the households facing food shortage, on
average, they were short of food for around 3.5 months. The reasons for food
shortages were largely linked to the weather. In 2010-11, 25 per cent reported
being severely affected by drought some time during the previous five years
(USAID, 2013).
2.2.2 Crop production
More than half of the country’s total harvested land area is allocated to cereals,
of which maize is the country’s dominant staple food crop. Despite its favourable
agro-ecological conditions, Tanzania is a net importer of wheat and rice. Maize
yields are typically low (0.75 tonnes per ha) and smallholder farmers rely on
traditional technologies and produce mainly for subsistence (Government of
Tanzania, 2006). Wheat, on the other hand, is produced almost exclusively by
large-scale commercial farmers in the Northern zone using modern inputs. Roots,

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

such as cassava and potatoes are also important food sources in Tanzania and
account for almost 15 per cent of harvested land.
Root crop production grew annually by more than 4 per cent between 2000-2007.
However, vegetable production stagnated and that of pulses declined by more
than 4 per cent per year over the same period. In the Northern and Eastern zones,
fruit production has significantly increased, making up for the lack of growth in
the vegetable sector, and oilseed has become a more important crop across the
country (Thurlow and Pauw, 2010).
Principal export crops include coffee, tea, cotton, cashews, sisal, oil seeds,
horticultural crops, pyrethrum, fresh cut flowers, cloves and spices. In terms of
agricultural exports, coffee constitutes the most important cash crop. Recent
reports have indicated that coffee accounted for 17.7 per cent of Tanzania’s total
agricultural exports in 2009/2010 (WFP, 2010). Cotton was the second most
important cash crop followed by cashew nuts, tobacco, tea and sisal. In Zanzibar,
the major cash crop is cloves, 90 per cent of which is produced on the Island
of Pemba. The major importers of Tanzania’s agricultural exports are the EU
countries, especially the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands.
2.2.3 Livestock production
Tanzania is endowed with abundant natural resources which include land, water,
forage and a large livestock resource base. Out of 94 million ha of land resource,
24 million ha are used for grazing. The country ranks third in terms of cattle
population in Africa after Sudan and Ethiopia. The 2010/2011 statistics indicate
that there are about 21.3 million cattle, 15.2 million goats and 6.4 million sheep
(URT, 2011). Other livestock include 1.9 million pigs, 35 million local chicken and
23 million improved chicken. About 90 per cent of the livestock population is
indigenous (URT, 2011).
Livestock production is one of the major agricultural activities in Tanzania
contributing towards achieving development goals of the National Growth and
Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP). The livestock sector provides livelihood support
to a total of 1,745,776 (37%) households out of 4,901,837 agricultural households
(URT, 2005) and is one of the major economic activities in rural areas.
Livestock and fisheries account for almost a third of agricultural GDP. In recent
years, growth in fisheries has kept pace with overall agricultural production,
growing at 5.1 per cent a year from 1998–2007. However, livestock has not
performed as well as crop agriculture, growing at only 3.3 per cent per year.
Income from livestock and poultry are particularly important for the livelihoods
of smallholder farmers and low income families in many parts of the country.
Indeed, almost all households in rural areas participate in either crop or livestock

8
 Agriculture production, food security and trade

activities and earn, on average, two thirds of total income from the sector (Zezza,
2012).
The livestock industry has maintained a steady annual growth rate of over 2.7
per cent during the last decade. However, human population growth is increasing
at a higher rate than the livestock sub-sector, which indicates that Tanzania is
increasingly unable to meet the internal demand for livestock products (URT,
2010b). This is further compounded by the culture of retention of large cattle
herds as a status symbol in some parts of the country. The current challenges
facing the sector include: animal diseases, poor infrastructure and lack of reliable
markets, investments and processing industries.

2.3 Trade in Agricultural Production

2.3.1 Overview
Trade in agricultural products, especially the staple foods, is significant throughout
Tanzania as majority of small holder farmers depend on it for their livelihood and
food security (USAID, 2010). The crops sub-sector is the main source of staple
foods in Tanzania which include maize, wheat, rice, sorghum, millet, beans and
pulses (pigeon pea, cow pea, and chick pea), cassava and groundnuts. The livestock
sub-sector complements the crop sub-sector for income and food security. It
comprises of cattle, goats and sheep, pigs and chicken.
2.3.2 Maize sub-sector
Maize is the most important staple food in Tanzania and in the eastern Africa.
During the period 2004-2008, maize was one of the major agricultural imports.
From 2004 to 2013, trade intensity (total trade over production) averaged 3 per
cent although there has been a decreasing trend since 2006 (Figure 2.1).
However, the annual growth in value during the period 2008-2012 was 68 per
cent and the share in the world export was 0.1 per cent (Barreiro-Hurle et al.,
2014). While it is widely considered that the Government of Tanzania could be
one of the breadbaskets of East Africa with a production potential to feed deficit
neighbouring areas for 6 out of the last 10 years, the URT is a net importer of
maize (Figure 2.2).
Dar es Salaam is the main domestic market for Tanzanian maize followed by
Zanzibar, the Mtwara-Lindi region, and northern cities of Moshi and Arusha.
There are two main bulk markets located in Makambako and Kibaigwa that collect
and distribute maize from and to further regions. Generally, external markets
for Tanzanian maize include Kenya, Comoro, Rwanda and Burundi and to a
lesser extent Malawi and Zambia (Figure 2.3). The export market that exists can

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Figure 2.1: Maize imports and exports in Tanzania (2004-2013) (US$

‘000)

Source: Barreiro-Hurle et al. (2014)

Figure 2.2: Maize trade balance (X-M) in Tanzania (2004-2013) (US$
‘000)

Source: Barreiro-Hurle et al. (2014)

be divided into those of maize grains and flour. Grains are mostly exported by
traders and store keepers while flour is exported by millers and flour wholesalers.
Imports of seed are generally arranged and controlled by food security agencies.

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 Agriculture production, food security and trade

Figure 2.3: Geographical flows of maize

Source: SAGCOT (2010)

Figure 2.4: (a) Main origin of maize imports in Tanzania (2005-2013);

(b) Main destinations of maize exports from Tanzania (2005-2013)

Mexico
Kenya
Zambia
Rwanda
Uganda
South Africa Burundi
Italy DRC
Malawi
Uganda
Mozambique
Argentina
Kenya
Others China

(a) (b)
Source: Barreiro-Hurle et al. (2014)

11
 Table 2.1: Maize trade in Tanzania, 2005-2013
Maize (corn) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Import (Tonnes) 18,901 252,632 6,609 20,468 6,415 18,588 11,930 74,531 75,981
Export (Tonnes) 101,394 23,507 87,076 12,096 1,731 776 2,942 175,302 40,449
Net exports 82,493 (229,125)* 80,467 (8,373) (4,684) (17,813) (8,988) 100,771 (35,532)
Import (US$ ‘000) 3,320 51,273 2,312 8,694 8,341 15,676 15,423 39,433 38,364
Export (US$ ‘000) 10,857 6,397 11,953 3,236 1,675 1,185 2,181 38,510 8,857
Net trade (US$ ‘000) 7,537 (44,876) 9,641 (5,458) (6,666) (14,491) (13,242) (923) (29,507)
Implicit value exports 107.08 272.13 137.28 267.55 967.82 1,527.60 741.33 219.68 218.97
(US$/tonne)
Implicit value imports 175.67 202.96 349.89 424.78 1,300.40 843.32 1,292.79 529.08 504.92
Uganda and Kenya) (Figure 2.4a).

(US$/tonne)
Maize (corn), seed

12
Import (Tonne) 4,298 23,427 1,684 3,686 6,363 14,390 11,739 12,588 27,109
Export (Tonne) 22,113 700 17,498 4,192 1,524 2 850 64,704 1340
Net exports 17,815 (22,727) 15,813 506 (4,839) (14,388) (10,889) 52,116 (25,769)
Import (US$ ‘000) 1,120 6,077 1,583 4,527 8,310 14,173 15,384 12,506 23,230
Export (1,000 US$) 2,197 82 2,135 1,251 1,238 8 1,530 11,864 347
Net trade (US$ ‘000) 1,077 (5,995) 552 (3,276) (7,073) (14,166) (13,854) (642) (22,883)
Implicit value exports 99.35 117.76 122.00 298.42 812.39 3,515.00 1,800.00 183.36 258.96
(US$/tonne)
Implicit value imports 260.57 259.41 939.70 1,228.3 1,306.1 984.96 1,310.50 993.49 856.91
(US$/tonne)
*Figures in closed brackets represent negative
Source: Barreiro-Hurle et al. (2014)
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

As far as exports are concerned, nearly over 78 per cent go to EAC countries
During the period 2005-2013, over 41 per cent of imports came from Zambia,

average, Tanzania has been a net importer of maize but annually this has varied
between a positive export balance of 82,493 tonnes in 2005, 80,467 tonnes in
and to be more specific, the large percentage (46%) to Kenya (Figure 2.4b). On
USA and Mexico and only a minority from the partners of the EAC (24% from
 Agriculture production, food security and trade

2007, and 100, 771 tonnes in 2012. The biggest net import balance was in 2006
where 229,125 tonnes were imported (Table 2.1).
The performance of the maize market, therefore, has a significant impact on the
welfare and food security especially for poor people. It has been ascertained that
with growing urbanization and high rates of poverty that limit dietary upgrading,
market demand for food staples will grow steadily to US$ 11.2 billion in 2015 and
US$ 16.7 billion in 2030 (World Bank, 2009). This is a great emerging market
opportunity for countries such as Tanzania (Table 2.2).

Table 2.2: Maize demand projection

Market Demand 2015 2030

Local demand (‘000 tonnes) Tanzania demand 3,800 5,500
Imports (‘000 tonnes) Tanzania imports 0 0
EAC imports 500 850
Consumption (‘000 tonnes) Global consumption 910,000 1,400,000
Export demand (‘000 tonnes) EU demand 50,000 70,000
Other export demand 860,000 1,330,000
Source: SAGCOT (2010)

2.3.3 Rice sub-sector

Rice is the second most important crop in Tanzania, and is used as a cash crop
after maize. It is among the major sources of employment and income for
many households (Barreiro-Hurle, 2012). Rice is mainly produced by small-
scale farmers while marketing is dominated by middlemen and traders (Kilima,
2006; Barreiro-Hurle, 2012). The Tanzanian productivity is lower than most
neighbouring countries, and one of the lowest in the world. Furthermore, Tanzania
hardly meets its own demand and imports large quantities mostly from South-
East Asia. However, Tanzania is the second producer in Southern-Eastern Africa.
Tanzanian’s total production is 900,000 metric tonnes, from which a small part
is exported to neighbouring countries (MMA, 2010; SAGCOT, 2010). Northern
Tanzania (Lake Victoria and the Southern Highlands) is the main rice producing
area. Around 90 per cent of Tanzania’s production is sourced from small-scale
farmers with an average farm size of 1.3 ha (Barreiro-Hurle, 2012).
There is a growing demand for rice from Tanzania’s major markets. The demand
by urban medium-high consumers is increasing for quality and branded aromatic
rice, which is primarily produced in Tanzania. Likewise, most neighbouring
countries have rice deficiencies, which make the regional block a highly attractive

13
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

market if efficient supply chains can be developed. The export ban was lifted in
2010 and this could motivate more structured supply chains to penetrate this
market segment (SAGCOT, 2010).
Normally, in Tanzania, one paddy is harvested by local traders who either
trade it at the regional market or send it to a mill for processing. The rice sub-
sector is highly fragmented with millers and brokers. The milled rice is then sold
at the wholesale level to traders from the local markets/retail shops or the paddy
might be sold to larger millers, who export large quantities of processed rice. Rice
surplus produced in the south is transported and sold mainly in Dar es Salaam,
but the smaller share of production is also exported to markets in Malawi and
Zambia. On the other hand, the northern region tends to direct its surpluses to
Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda (Barreiro-Hurle, 2012; SAGCOT, 2010).
Rice trade flows
Figure 2.5 demonstrates that trade flows for rice mainly go through local markets
and across the border. Rice is mainly transported from Arusha to the regional
market in Nairobi, which offers higher prices. There is also a smaller trade flow
that goes from Musoma to Nairobi through the Silale border (Figure 2.5). Local
traders in regions bordering other countries often find it cheaper to export than
to transport the same rice to major domestic markets. This is mainly due to high
transport costs affecting both internal and export trade of agricultural crops.
Therefore, high transport costs are often an impediment to the competitiveness of

Figure 2.5: Rice production and trade flow map for Tanzania

Source: Barreiro-Hurle, 2012

14
 Agriculture production, food security and trade

Figure 2.6: Maize and rice traded (%)

World Export/World Production 16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Maize Rice

Source: SAGCOT (2010)

exports (Mkenda and Campenhout, 2011). Alternative sources (SAGCOT) include

south of Shinyanga and/or Tabora as a surplus area, which seems to be in line
with the importance of the region in total rice production.
Rice traded across borders represents about 8 per cent of global production
(Figure 2.6). The rice trade is a residual activity in most countries with almost all
rice being consumed domestically in the producing country and only a small share
either imported or made available for export. Although 8 per cent is a significant
improvement over the 4-5 per cent traded in the 1960s and 1970s, it still leaves the
rice market vulnerable to large price responses and small changes in quantities.
The biggest rice exporters are Thailand, Vietnam, the US and India. These four
countries made up more than 70 per cent of global rice exports between 2006
and 2008. This concentration makes rice prices very sensitive to changes in the
export plans of these four countries, as it was seen during the rice export ban from
India in 2007.
The local market demand for rice is expected to increase by 1.15 million tonnes
and 1.75 million tonnes by 2015 and 2030, respectively. Rice imports are said to
be 85 MT by 2015 and 45 MT by 2030 (Table 2.3). The demand for aromatic rice
is anticipated to increase with growing urbanization and income levels.

15
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Table 2.3: Rice demand projections

Market demand 2015 2030

Local demand (‘000 tonnes) Tanzania demand 1,150 1,750
Imports (‘000 tonnes) Tanzania imports 85 45
Consumption (‘000 tonnes) Global consumption 730,000 1,150,000
Export demand (‘000 tonnes) Middle East 8,000
EU demand 3,500 5,000
Other export demand 718,500 1,145,000
Source: SAGCOT (2010)

2.3.4 Other crops sub-sectors

Wheat: Wheat is grown almost exclusively as a commercial crop, with 97 per cent
of the output being marketed. Total wheat production in Tanzania is estimated
at 100,000 MT contrary to the local demand (local consumption) which is
projected at 780,000 MT in 2015 (USAID, 2010; SAGCOT, 2010). Wheat imports
averaged 643,000 MT per annum between 2005 and 2007; 91 per cent of the
stated wheat consumption is in the country. Small volumes of flour are exported
through cross border trade. Wheat and bread are a relatively expensive source
of calories compared to other staple foods such as maize. As a result, per capita
consumption of wheat products is much higher in urban areas and among high-
income households. Wheat imported in Tanzania is mainly from FSU, Canada,
Australia, USA and Germany; it is imported by millers through Mombasa and Dar
es Salaam. Bakhresa, the largest miller and importer, also transits wheat to its
mills in neighbouring countries and wheat flour to DR Congo.
Sunflower: Sunflower is one of the most important oilseed crops in Tanzania.
The crop is gaining popularity and current data shows that local production for
both factory and home extracted oil contributes to about 40 per cent of natural
edible oil requirement with imported oils occupying a significant portion of the
remaining 60 per cent (SAGCOT, 2010).
When harvested, the sunflower crop is usually sold to local traders either at
the farm gate or at the local markets. These traders are either on commission
from local processors or are acting independently. The independent traders
may then locate buyers for the seeds or negotiate with the processors while the
commissioned collectors usually work on an order from the processor. In a small
number of cases, farmers take their seeds to the processors themselves. The
processors are the pivotal point for the sunflower oil sub-sector, as all the seeds
must pass through these actors. They, therefore, come into contact with a wide

16
 Agriculture production, food security and trade

variety of actors and have different types of transactions. The processors can
either be involved in buying oil seeds and/or simply offering pressing services
to processing customers; i.e. traders and farmers. Once the oil is produced, the
owner (farmer, trader or processor) may then sell directly to the rural market,
rural retailers, or to other traders for distribution to the urban market.
The local market for sunflower product(s) is expanding and there is significant
potential for import substitution. Exporting of sunflower oil has already begun to
large markets such as the Netherlands, and there is considerable scope from the
world market.
Beans: In Tanzania, beans usually comprise about 80 per cent of the overall
pulse crop. It is grown in areas of sufficient rainfall and is typically intercropped
with maize. In low beans producing areas such as the Lake Zone, farmers retain
about 45 per cent of total beans produced. It is, therefore, expected that domestic
consumption of beans as a source of plant protein will increase in line with
population growth. Kenya and Uganda are the major markets for Tanzanian
beans. A larger volume is delivered to Kenya but in both cases the rate of export
seems to have declined from the peak year of 2005/2006 (USAID, 2010). The
market is interested in the large bean while the consumer producers prefer the
small beans.
Sorghum: Farmers grow sorghum primarily for home consumption. The results
of the 2002-03 NSCA indicate that just 17 per cent of sorghum output is marketed,
with many suggesting that international trade in sorghum is practically non-
existent (USAID, 2010). Smallholder production of sorghum for the domestic
brewing sector has failed to meet adequate and consistent quality supply.
Cassava: Cassava is the third most important food crop in Tanzania after maize
and rice. It provides energy from its roots, and protein, minerals and vitamins
from its leaves. Cassava is not imported in any real quantity by Tanzania and is
only exported in fairly small volumes. Cassava is mainly consumed by low-income
earners both in rural and urban areas because it is affordable.
Pulse: Like beans, pulses are mostly consumed by the producers and thus
production meets the requirement to significant levels. Only a surplus pulse
production leads to a small but consistent export market. In terms of imports,
dry peas are imported in the greatest volume and at a considerable cost. When
looking at exports, it is chick peas alongside dried peas that make up the bulk of
the exports (USAID, 2010).
Irish potato: In Tanzania, Irish potatoes are essentially a food security crop with
growing domestic urban demand. About 90 per cent of the national crop is grown
in the Southern Highlands and predominantly around Iringa and Mbeya. Due to

17
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

increased demand, particularly urban demand, potato production is expanding

within the Southern Highlands region, and is spreading into Central (Morogoro)
and North Eastern Tanzania (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara). The bulk of
potatoes are sold into the ware market as an ungraded product. The marketing
system is not well organized with most farmers being price takers, and retailers
and subsequent consumers paying high prices due to the high transaction costs
of farmers and traders. Most potatoes in Tanzania are consumed as food at
household level and through food service outlets such as restaurants and street
food vendors. It has been established that significant volumes of ware potato in
major urban centres are consumed as French fries (chips) through food service
outlets and mainly through street food vendors. Urban and semi-urban market
retailers sell directly to household consumers (SAGCOT, 2010).

2.3.5 Livestock

The livestock sector contributes about 4.1 per cent of Tanzanian GDP and 8.9 of
agricultural GDP (SAGCOT, 2010). The meat industry contributes 40 per cent,
the dairy industry 30 per cent and the balance represents the contribution of pigs,
poultry and other products and services from the sector (URT, 2007).
In Tanzanian, livestock is traded through two main channels, namely small
scale and the larger scale. The small scale channel is championed by traditional
pastoralists and agro-pastoralists who command over 98 per cent of meat
production in the country. It is estimated that 335,000 tonnes of meat are
produced annually in Tanzania (SAGCOT, 2010). The meat produced by the small
scale channel is almost entirely for local consumption. Typically, producers are
hardly involved in upstream sub-sector functions. Traders of different sizes and
specialization dominate the interface between producers and slaughterhouses/
butchers.
In the 1980s, the large scale channel was dominated by state-run commercial
ranches. However, divestiture of state run ranches has been ongoing. Thus,
the importance of state-run commercial ranches is declining. With 11 state-run
ranches, there was a potential to carry up to 90,000 cattle and produce 1,500
tonnes of beef per annum. The government has also invested in a number of
abattoirs, two of which are large scale modern enterprises able to process meat
to export market standards. The private sector is also slowly penetrating the
market with integrated large scale ranching and fattening operations combined
with modern abattoirs where they process red meat for urban and export markets.
Currently, there are large scale integrated ranches in Morogoro, Sumbawanga and
Arusha.

18
 Agriculture production, food security and trade

The main official export destinations for Tanzania’s mainland live animals
include Kenya, Comoro, Burundi, Uganda and Zanzibar. The mainland also
exports red meat/carcass to various countries including Oman, Kuwait, United
Arab Emirates (UAE), Muscat, DRC and Zanzibar. On the other hand, many
Tanzanian cattle are sold live in Kenya markets through illegal/unofficial trade
(Table 2.4). The Kenyan market attracts Tanzania traders because of its high prices
and robust export-driven meat industry. Indeed, some of the exported cattle from
Tanzania to Kenya are re-imported back to Tanzania as processed meat.
Table 2.4: Export trend of live animals and meat products from
Tanzania, 2002-2007

Live Animals Red Meat/Carcass

Year Cattle Goats Sheep destination Year Beef Goat Mutton Destination
2002 382 140 Kenya 2003 Oman,
Kuwait
2003 1,724 411 2 Comoro 2004 1,080 Dubai
(UAE)
2004 5,263 1,199 2 Burundi 2005 600 Muscat
2005 4,075 2,177 Zanzibar 2006 163 16,774 20,335 DRC
2006 6,231 2,753 11 Uganda 2007 10,737 23,345 76,592 Zanzibar
2007 3,849 736

Source: SAGCOT (2010)

Between the year 2002 and 2006, red meat production in Tanzania increased
by 14 per cent, which was mainly for local markets. If this is the proxy of how the
local market has been growing, then there is every indication that the market for
red meat will continue to grow in Tanzania. This is also influenced by the growth
of urban towns and cities such as Dar es Salaam and Mwanza, Mbeya, Arusha and
Tanga. The meat demand projections also bring a promising market (Table 2.5).

Table 2.5: Livestock demand projections

Market Demand 2015 2030

Local demand (‘000 tonnes) Tanzania demand 290 480
Consumption (‘000 tonnes) Global consumption 77,000 125,000
EU demand 10,000 15,000
Sources: SAGCOT (2010); World Bank (2009)

19
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

3. Policies in Agricultural Production, Food Security

and Trade

3.1 Policies Governing Agricultural Production and Food Security

3.1.1 Agricultural-related policies
a) The 2013 National Agriculture Policy
The National Agriculture Policy of 2013 (URT, 2013) aims at developing an
efficient, competitive and profitable agricultural industry that contributes to the
improvement of the livelihoods of Tanzanians and attainment of broad-based
economic growth and poverty alleviation. The policy aims to address some of the
key challenges facing the agriculture sector, such as over-dependence on rain-fed
agriculture; inadequate agriculture support services; poor infrastructure; weak
agro-industries; low quality of agricultural produce; inadequate participation
of the country’s private sector in agriculture; environmental degradation; and
crop pests and diseases. It also emphasizes on the need for increased investment
in agriculture, greater involvement of the private sector in the production, and
provision of support services to the farming community.
The policy addresses the concern and trade-offs between food and bio-fuel
crop production. This is because converting land currently used for food crop
production into bio-fuel production may pose a new threat to national food
security. Moreover, the policy has put a strong emphasis on increasing crop
production, productivity, and profitability through risk mitigation mechanisms.
Some of the key policy objectives on crop production include:
• Strengthening agricultural research services to enhance production,
productivity, competitiveness and profitability of the agricultural sector;
• Promoting plant breeding, variety protection and availability of improved
plant varieties for agricultural development in the country;
• Using agricultural biotechnology techniques and strengthening agricultural
extension services to increase agricultural production, productivity and
profitability;
• Enhancing crop productivity and profitability in irrigated agriculture in a
sustainable manner to ensure food security and poverty reduction; and
• Promoting efficient utilization of farm machinery, implements, equipment
and agro-processing machines.
The policy emphasizes the need to liberalize all agricultural markets and
remove state monopoly in export and import of agricultural goods and produce,

20
 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

and the government to withdraw from agricultural production and focus on food
security at the national and household levels. This is in line with the policy’s
mission of transforming the agricultural sector into a modern, commercial and
competitive sector to ensure food security and poverty alleviation.
With regard to climate change, its mitigations and adaptations, the policy
sets out some policy objectives and strategies for addressing climate change-
related risks and vulnerabilities. Examples of the strategies include: i) Strengthen
coordination of sustainable environmental early warning and monitoring systems
in collaboration with the relevant ministries; ii) Improve adaptation measures to
climate change effects and deal with all the risks involved; iii) Promote public
awareness on sustainable environmental conservation and environmental friendly
crop husbandry practices (sustainable agriculture); iv) Enforce environmental
laws and regulations that minimize environmental degradation as a result of
agricultural activities; v) Up-scale activities that enhance the carbon storage
capacity such as conservation agriculture and agro-forestry; vi) Establish public
awareness on the opportunities of agriculture as potential carbon sink and
mechanism to benefit from carbon market according to international protocols;
and vii) Strengthen efficient use of renewable natural resources.
The policy aims to enhance profitability and productivity of irrigated agriculture
to achieve better yields and production under changing climate. Climate change
may also result in increased crop and livestock pests and diseases due to a rise in
temperatures in some parts of the country. Therefore, the policy has set strategies
to address pests and diseases. For example, pest and disease surveillance system
and control mechanisms will be strengthened. The government will collaborate
with neighbouring countries, international organizations and other institutions
dealing with plant health services in combating pests and diseases outbreaks. Pest
free areas will be protected from introduction of pests of quarantine importance,
and the government will strengthen sanitary and phytosanitary, quarantine and
plant inspectorate services.
With regard to bio-fuels, the policy has put clear emphasis on production and
use of bio-fuels while guaranteeing food security to the nation. The policy has
encouraged private sector participation in commercial production of horticultural
crops. The flower industry has been leading in this initiative and a few small and
medium enterprises (SMEs) through efforts of some interested entrepreneurs,
and promoting production of tropical fruits and vegetable for the export market.
Nevertheless, the policies on land and government/private sector partnership
need to be revised to support this initiative (URT, 2002).

21
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

b) The 2006 National Livestock Policy

The 2006 National Livestock Policy (URT, 2006b) that revised the 1997 National
Agricultural and Livestock Policy was formulated to encourage the development
of commercially-oriented, efficient and internationally competitive livestock
industry. This revision was to enable the sector to support the emergence of a
more diverse structure of production with a large increase in the numbers of
successful smallholder livestock producer enterprises. Further, the policy was
geared to conserve livestock resources and put in place policies and institutions
for sustainable resource development and use.
The livestock industry is a source of income and livelihood to majority of
Tanzanians, especially those living in arid and semi-arid areas of Tanzania such as
Arusha, Manyara, Shinyanga and Simiyu regions. It has an important role to play
in building a strong national economy and increasing incomes and employment
opportunities while nurturing the natural resources. Tanzania has the third
largest cattle population in Africa after Ethiopia and Sudan. Out of the total 94
million ha of land resource, 60 million ha are rangelands used for grazing 18.5
million cattle; 13.1 million goats and 3.6 million sheep. Other livestock kept in the
country include 1.2 million pigs, 30 million indigenous poultry and other species
(URT, 2006b).
Despite its high potential, the industry faces some major constraints that limit
its development. The policy underscores the main challenges as: i) Lack of proper
arrangement to allocate land and give ownership of grazing areas; ii) Low genetic
potential of the indigenous livestock coupled with limited supply of improved
livestock; iii) Livestock diseases; v) Inadequate infrastructure for processing and
marketing of livestock and livestock products; vi) Inadequate livestock farmers’
knowledge and skills; and vii) Unavailability of credit facilities to large, medium
and small-scale livestock entrepreneurs and low capital investment, limiting the
expansion and commercialization of the industry. The industry is also facing a
challenge of meeting the sanitary conditions for the regional and international
livestock trade.
While the policy does not directly discusss the climate change effects on the
livestock sector, it highlights the need for having a diverse and favourable climate
and agro-ecological zones for livestock development. Further, it points out the fact
that the quality and quantity of tropical pastures depend, among other factors, on
the weather conditions of a specific place. Therefore, a policy objective has been set
to promote forage conservations to ensure feed availability during unfavourable
conditions and scarcity in order to increase livestock productivity.

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 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

The policy highlights that majority of Tanzanians will continue living in

the rural areas. Therefore, adoption of micro-livestock production such as
rabbit, guinea pigs, camels and guinea fowls will be of importance for poverty
reduction, self-employment and food security. The policy also stresses on having
a commercially-run, modern and sustainable livestock sector using improved
and highly productive livestock breeds. This will ensure food security, improved
income for the household and the nation while conserving the environment.
Specifically, the policy also targets to contribute towards national food security
through increased production, processing and marketing of livestock products to
meet national nutritional requirements.
Examples of policy objectives addressing food security are: i) To promote
commercial and sustainable production of sheep and goats to meet domestic
demand and export market; ii) To promote pig production in order to contribute
towards food security, improved nutritional requirements, increased incomes
while conserving the environment; iii) To promote production and consumption
of non-conventional meat for increased household food security, income and
improved nutritional status of the people; and iv) To promote peri-urban livestock
farming in order to provide employment, improve household income and food
security. Therefore, proper implementation of the livestock policy will assist the
nation to improve livestock production, thereby improving the living standards
of pastoralists and enhancing food security.
c) The 2009 National Irrigation Policy
The 2009 National Irrigation Policy (NIP) aimed to direct development in the
irrigation sector. Prior to the enactment of this policy, irrigation matters were
being directed through other sector policies that constrained growth. The main
goal of the policy is to ensure sustainable availability of irrigation water and its
efficient use for enhanced crop production, productivity and profitability that will
contribute to food security and poverty reduction in Tanzania (URT, 2009a).
Specifically, some of the objectives of the policy are to: i) Accelerate
investment in the irrigation sector by both public and private sector players; ii)
Ensure that irrigation development funds are established with a legal status; iii)
Promote efficient water use in irrigation systems; iv) Abide by the Integrated
Water Resources Management Approach in irrigation development; v) Ensure
that irrigation development is technically feasible, economically viable, socially
desirable and environmentally sustainable; vi) Ensure reliable water for
irrigation so as to facilitate optimization, intensification and diversification of
irrigated crop production to supplement rain fed crop production effectively; vii)
Strengthen institutional capacity at all levels for the planning, implementation
and management of irrigation development; and ix) To empower beneficiaries

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

for effective participation at all levels in irrigation planning, implementation,

operation and management (URT, 2009a).
The policy underscores the fact that the agriculture sector contributes about
a quarter of Tanzania’s GDP and about 30 per cent of its export earnings while
employing over 80 per cent of the nation’s work-force. Accordingly, the sector
continues to drive economic growth in the country. Despite its importance,
agriculture is very much affected by unreliable rainfall and periodic droughts. It
is for this reason that irrigation is considered necessary for providing protection
against drought, a means of stabilizing crop production and assurance of
household food security.
The policy also underlines the fact that dependency on rain-fed agriculture,
which is greatly affected by the impacts of climate change, has led to low production
and productivity, necessitating the need for reliance of the country on irrigated
agriculture. The policy, however, outlines some of the challenges in developing
irrigated agriculture as: i) Inadequate funding for irrigation investments; ii)
Low capacity and participation of private sector in irrigation development; iii)
Low level of irrigation skills by the farmers; iv) Low production and inefficient
marketing systems; and v) Low agricultural water use efficiency.
Some of the key policy objectives on agricultural production include:
• To improve both the hardware and software aspects of the traditional
irrigation systems for achieving a reliable irrigation water supply and raising
the water utilization efficiency;
• To promote reliable irrigation water supply and high water use efficiency for
increased production, productivity and profitability;
• To ensure reliable water supply for water harvesting irrigation schemes;
• To ensure effective performance of improved RWH schemes for increased and
stable production, productivity and profitability; and
• To increase crop yields and production per unit volume of water and per
unit area under irrigation through sustainable, economically viable and
ecologically sound crop protection measures in irrigated agriculture.
The line ministries responsible for agriculture and food security are urged to
ensure proper implementation of the national irrigation policy so that development
of irrigation interventions leads to high crop production and productivity.
Once implemented, the policy is expected to bring, among other results, a
reliable and sustainable crop production system that will have more contribution
to food security, poverty reduction and the overall economic growth of the nation;

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 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

and ensure the direction for the implementation of irrigation interventions for
optimal availability of land and water resources for agricultural production
and productivity. The fact that majority of Tanzanians are subsistent farmers
depending on unreliable rainfed agriculture calls for implementation of the
irrigation policy as a strategy towards adapting to the changing climate.
d) The 1997 National Land Policy
The 1997 National Land Policy aimed to promote and ensure a secure land tenure
system and encourage optimal use of land resources for economic development
without affecting the environment. Water and land are critical inputs in
agricultural production. Some of the specific objectives of the policy were to: i)
Promote an equitable distribution and access to land to all citizens; ii) Ensure that
customary rights of smallholders are recognized, clarified and secured in law; iii)
Set ceilings on land ownership to avoid land grabbing; iv) Ensure that land is put
to its most productive use; and v) Promote land resources from degradation for
sustainable development.
There are several policy statements within the land policy that are supportive
of agricultural production. Examples include: citizens to have equal and equitable
access to land; demarcation of village land; and specific common resources titled
to the village.
The land policy of 1997 resulted in formulation of two new land laws that were
enacted in 1999 (URT, 1997); the Land Act No. 4 of 1999, which covers land in
general; and the Land Act No. 5 of 1999, which addresses issues on land that falls
within village boundaries.
With regard to climate change and agricultural production, the policy vowed
to ensure that permits, licenses, claims and rights for exploitation of natural
resources are issued in line with land use policies and environmental conservation
policies and programmes. Therefore, proper implementation of the land policy
and associated Acts will ensure sustainable land resources management, hence
mitigating the country against the impacts of climate change. This will be achieved
through enforcement of bylaws such as those preventing shifting cultivation,
deforestation and bush fires in reserved lands.

3.1.2 Policy frameworks and plans

a) Agriculture Climate Resilience Plan (ACRP 2014)

The Agriculture Climate Resilience Plan (ACRP) of the Ministry of Agriculture,
Food Security and Cooperatives aims to identify and respond to the most urgent
impacts posed by climate variability and climate change to the crop sub-sector.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

The ACRP is supposed to mainstream climate change within current agricultural

policies, plans and practices and identify gaps where new investments may be
needed. It underscores the fact that smallholder agriculture in Tanzania is
predominantly rain fed and depends mainly on livestock and food crop production
for survival (URT, 2014).
The ACRP has proposed some policy interventions for different actions to improve
agricultural production as follows:
• Increase water use efficiency: Develop guidelines to ensure that irrigation
expansion and rehabilitation plans and designs consider water availability,
climate variability and climate change; and develop policy briefs to update
policies to emphasize water use efficiency improvements and embed climate
change.
• Improve catchment management in agricultural planning: Develop an
agricultural land and water coordination mechanism between the Ministry of
Water (including Water Basin Offices), the DITS, MAFC-Division of Land Use
Planning, and other key stakeholders to participate in catchment ecosystem
management.
• Adopt sustainable agricultural land and water management to reduce
degradation: Develop guidelines and principles on sustainable soil and water
management.
• Accelerate uptake of climate smart agriculture: Develop clear guidelines and
policy briefs for CSA technologies and practices so that they can be better
mainstreamed into agricultural programmes such as ASDP-2.
• Reduce impacts of climate-related shocks through improved risk management:
Strengthen integration of pests and diseases into monitoring protocols
and early warning systems, and develop research programmes on the links
between climate change and pest and disease outbreaks.
The ACRP has identified some of the key issues to be addressed on food security
as:
• Unreliable weather patterns causing instability in food supply and periodic
shocks;
• Lack of early warning and weak system of social protection and disaster
preparedness and response;
• High post-harvest losses depleting food stocks;
• Hiking food prices;

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 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

• Low productivity of food crops, livestock and fisheries;

• Low capacity of current food reserve structures, and inadequate and poor
food storage facilities at household levels (TAFSIP, 2011); and
• Poor and limited rural storage preservation facilities.
Therefore, the ACRP provides a roadmap on how agriculture in Tanzania,
especially the crop sub-sector, can respond to the impacts of climate change.
b) Tanzania Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plan
(TAFSIP) 2011-12 to 2020-21
TAFSIP is Tanzania’s 10-year investment plan for comprehensively transforming
the agriculture sector to achieve food and nutrition security, create wealth, and
reduce poverty. It is a result of roadmap programmes of the CAADP target to
achieve 6 per cent annual growth in agricultural sector GDP. Its main goal is to
contribute to national economic growth, household income and food security in
line with national and sectoral development aspirations (URT-TAFSIP, 2009).
TAFSIP summarizes lessons from various on-going poverty reduction
initiatives. Using these lessons, TAFSIP set targets to ensure the nation’s food
security as follows: (i) Increase crop production to improve food security; (ii)
Maintain a strategic grain reserve of at least four months’ supply; (iii) Develop
and promote crop and livestock varieties adaptable to climate change; and (iv)
Strengthen early warning and natural disaster response capacity.
Tanzania has a significant amount of arable land (44 million ha) that is suitable
for agriculture production. It also has available water resources in form of rivers,
lakes, ocean and streams which can be used for both irrigation and fisheries.
Therefore, there is need to harmonize policies and pull down efforts in order to
effectively use the nation’s land and water resources for irrigation and sustainable
agricultural production (URT-TAFSIP, 2009).
With regard to agricultural trade, markets and market barriers, efficient and
well-regulated marketing systems are required to ensure better marketing of the
agricultural products. Reducing marketing costs and trade barriers will allow
farmers and traders to harness the opportunities of expanded domestic, regional
and international markets for agricultural products.
Various agricultural-related policies have been reviewed in the TAFSIP and
their areas of improvement have been highlighted. Examples are shown in Table
3.1.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Table 3.1: Agricultural-related policies: Strengths, gaps, and

proposed areas of improvement

Policy Strengths Policy Gaps/ Proposed Areas of

Weaknesses Improvements
National The policy recognizes Inadequate Strengthening coordination
Agriculture the low capacity for coordination of of implementation of
Policy (2009) irrigation; the need sectoral policies in agricultural policies through
for improving rural formulation and greater sectoral linkages and
infrastructure; and implementation enhancing private sector
supports strengthening involvement
of agricultural support Weak involvement
services of private Strengthening institutional
sector in policy collaboration for the
implementation exploitation of high potential
areas
Poor linkage with
infrastructural Linking rural roads,
development electrification,
communication and
agricultural markets to the
regional networks
National The policy promotes The policy is weak Proposed interventions
Livestock Policy protection of water in promoting include: making policy
(2006) catchments areas and trade facilitating provisions for improving
supports construction infrastructure rural and urban
and maintenance of water and services, infrastructure and trade-
sources for livestock and especially in rural related capacities for
the role of the livestock areas caused improved livestock market
sector in national food by poor feeder access, as well as developing
and nutrition security roads, limited livestock and livestock
livestock haulage products and related
and holding commodity value chains
facilities as well as
underdeveloped
market chain
for livestock and
livestock products
The National The policy recognizes the Inadequate Developing integrated water
Irrigation Policy potential of irrigation integration of resources management
(2010) to promote agricultural water resources systems for agricultural
productivity, increase management production
food security and systems and
stimulate economic limited material, Providing backup support for
growth financial and small-scale and commercial
technical support private irrigation developers
services for including promotional
irrigators activities, guidelines,
regulation, standards, design
and manuals, and technical
assistance
Providing private leverage/
equity fund for investment in
irrigation

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 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

National Trade The policy recognizes the Weak Streamlining the trade
Policy (2003) need for harmonization implementation regime to address
of trade policies and of the policy, agricultural commodity
the importance of value especially in trading locally and
addition to promote participation internationally
competitiveness in in regional and
agriculture international trade Providing trade facilitation
services in areas of
transport, communication
and technology transfer
National The policy advocates Trends and Monitoring climate change
Environment the need for improving impacts of climate and variability in terrestrial
Policy (1997) land husbandry through change are not well and aquatic ecosystems
control of soil erosion articulated in the
and improvement of soil policy
fertility
The National The policy recognizes the Issue of water Increase resources (technical
Water Policy development of equal management and financial) mobilization
(2002) and fair procedures in plan not clearly for implementation of the
conservation, access, addressed water policy with increased
allocation and utilization and there are focus on institutional
of water resources so that insufficient strengthening for sustainable
all social and economic technical and utilization and management
activities are able to financial resources of water resources
maximize their capacities for implementation
of the policy
National The policy provides a The policy does not Strengthening the
Microfinance guide for coordinated provide incentives implementation of the
Policy (2000) interventions in the to offset the high policy in the context of the
microfinance system cost of delivering Tanzania Rural Financial
financial services Services Strategy
to rural areas,
especially to farm
communities
Food and The policy raises the The policy does The policy needs to be
Nutrition Policy importance of food not capture updated to take into account
(1992) and nutrition in social emerging food current food security and
well-being and national and nutritional nutrition problems including
development problems due to the changing population
changing lifestyles dynamics in rural and urban
in rural and urban areas
areas
The policy is
outdated
National It recognizes the The policy is silent Extend promotion of
Investment importance of on the promotion investment of other
Promotion fostering research of rural power infrastructure such as rural
Policy (1996) and development, investments such electrification given that only
encourage adoption as electricity and 12% of the population has
of new production other sources of access to power
technology, improving energy
extension services for the
agricultural sector
Source: URT-TAFSIP (2011)

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Therefore, the TAFSIP review has given a good summary of various policies
related with agricultural production and food security, strengths, gaps and areas
that needs to be improved to ensure that the agriculture sector is transformed to
achieve food and nutrition security, create wealth, and reduce poverty.
c) Climate Change Policy and Institutional Review on Tanzania’s
Agricultural Sector
This is a policy review synthesis document that aims to give baseline information
on how sectoral policies address climatic vulnerabilities and risks. Specifically,
the review provides an understanding of responsibilities of relevant decision
making on climate change in agricultural-related activities, and the contribution
of Tanzania’s key agricultural policies in meeting climate change objectives as
outlined in the National Climate Change Strategy.
Tanzania has endorsed the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development
Programme (CAADP) which provides a framework for Africa to be more productive
in agriculture (Yanda, 2013). Within the framework, there are seven priority
investment areas for agriculture: i) Irrigation development, and sustainable
water resources and land use management; ii) Agricultural productivity and
commercialization; iii) Rural infrastructure, market access and trade; iv) Private
sector development; v) Food and nutrition security; vi) Disaster management,
climate change mitigation and adaptation; and vii) Policy and institutional
support reform (Yanda, 2013).
The government has set priority areas for investment in the agricultural,
livestock, and fisheries industries and the responsible institutions both at national
(agriculture sector-lead ministries) and sub-national level.
Institutional recommendations for implementing strategic interventions on
mitigation and adaptation options in the agriculture sector are outlined as follows:
• Strengthen the public private partnership (PPP) taking advantage of the
presence of the 2009 PPP policy;
• Attract and involve insurance companies to undertake climate change-related
risk mechanisms in agriculture;
• Government to implement the 2003 Maputo Declaration to allocate at least
10 per cent of national budget for agriculture and rural development; and
• Establish climate change coordinating unit across government sectors.
Some of the key findings from the review of food and agricultural trade policies in
the United Republic of Tanzania 2005-2011 show that:

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 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

i) Producers of imported commodities received price incentives while those

of exported commodities received disincentives. Producers of exported
commodities received lower prices than they could have obtained because
of policies, traders’ high market power and inefficient processing facilities.
Moreover, some commodities were protected at wholesale (processed) level,
but penalized at farm gate (raw) level. This has had a negative impact on food
security by making food less affordable and more scarce.
ii) Most of the incentives for imported commodities were due to trade policies,
while disincentives for export commodities related to taxes and inefficient
processing industries. In addition, some of the protection for imported goods
offered by trade policies was eroded by excessive marketing costs along the
value chain.
iii) Farmers producing commodities that the URT imports to cover domestic
consumption received incentives. The common external tariff which the
URT applies to imports from outside the EAC helps to keep prices higher
for producers. The only exception is sugar, whose producers face strong
disincentives. For all imported commodities, protection at the farm gate was
eroded by high transport and marketing costs due to lack of market integration
and inefficiencies in the value chain.
iv) Farmers producing export commodities would have obtained higher prices in
a policy-free environment and with better market performance. The factors
that kept producer prices low included taxes on cotton and cashew nuts;
poorly functioning value chains for coffee and cashew nuts; and inefficiencies
in the cotton processing sector.
v) From 2005 to 2010, producers of pulses received higher prices but those of
traditional exports were penalized. Average domestic prices for pulses were
higher than export prices. This would usually be considered as an incentive
for producers. However, in this specific case, lack of storage facilities forced
traders to export pulses when prices were low. Producers thus missed the
opportunity to benefit from higher non-seasonal prices in domestic markets.
In general, agricultural policies and their policy frameworks have emphasized
on improving agricultural production and promoting irrigation as a means for
the agriculture sector to cope with the impact of climate change and enhance the
nation’s food security.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

3.2 Policies in Agricultural Trade

Since independence, Tanzania has experimented different policy regimes on

agricultural markets. It went through unregulated markets before the Arusha
Declaration (1967), cooperative-based marketing, centralized crop authorities,
and the current liberalized markets (Amani et al., 1983). The key challenges facing
agricultural marketing and trade are: inadequate access to markets, insufficient
market information, limited access to finance, and lack of capacity of agricultural
marketing institutions. Other are lack of entrepreneurial skills, non-existence of
product standards, high transaction costs, poor coordination and integration of
marketing channels, and policy uncertainties (ESRF, 2000). These challenges
need to be addressed through various trade and marketing policy reforms.
a) The 2003 National Trade Policy
The National Trade Policy of 2003 aimed at identifying ways and means of
ensuring a viable and steady path towards competitive export-led growth, which
will fulfil the goal of poverty eradication. Its main goal was to raise efficiency and
widen linkages in domestic production and build a diversified competitive export
sector as the means of stimulating higher rates of growth and development (URT,
2003).
Specifically, the policy aimed to stimulate a process of trade development as a
means of triggering higher performance and capacity to withstand intensifying
competition within the domestic market; transform the economy towards an
integrated, diversified and competitive entity; and to simulate and encourage
value-adding activities on primary exports as a means of increasing national
earnings and income flows.
The critical issues facing the Tanzanian economy addressed in the policy include
(URT, 2003):
• Consolidate consensus on trade development measures on policy shift from a
protected and controlled economy towards a competitive market one;
• Highlight the central role and contribution of the trade function to the
attainment of the primary goal of poverty eradication under the National
Development Vision 2025;
• Identify measures for the development of the domestic market as a tool of
inclusion and broad-based participation in economic activity based on
improved market-infrastructure, technology diffusion and access to market
information;
• Align national development agenda with regional and international trade

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 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

obligations and maximize the benefits of participation in regional and

international trade arrangements;
• Adopt an appropriate framework of measures for the interim safeguarding
of domestic industry and economic activity threatened by liberalization,
including identification of sectors to be protected, the rationale and costs of
protection, and the maximum duration for protection; and,
• How best to address the supply-side constraints that inhibit expansion of trade
within the domestic and global market as the route towards rapid economic
development.
The policy underscores major challenges on trade policy, including:
establishing and sustaining an enabling business environment; development of
hard and soft infrastructure; building capacity for market supporting institutions;
creating an internal ability to participate in and influence changes in the world
trading system; and promotion of private sector development in the context of
supply-side capacity.
Some of the key policy statements supporting trade include: expansion and
modernization of the services industry with priority on tourism and transit trade
sectors; ensure transparent application and predictability in use of tariffs and
further liberalization and rationalization of the tariff structure; Government to
review and strengthen the institutional framework for efficient refund of import
taxes under the duty draw back (DDB) scheme; and the government to ensure that
the tax regime is supportive of increased exports with a view to responding to the
problem of a domestic market that is too small for the realization of the economies
of scale in modern industry.
With regard to movement agricultural products, and trade barriers, the policy
underscores three factors that are necessary for development of trade within the
domestic market: i) Enhanced economic efficiency based on wider participation;
ii) Improved market access based on development of physical marketing
infrastructure; and iii) Access to market information. The policy stresses the need
for removing intra-district trade barriers and encouraging cross-border official
trade, particularly for food products.
While the trade policy does not underline direct ways of increased agricultural
production, it has emphasized on the link between increased production and
economic growth. It has underscored the fact that low agricultural production is
a constrain to trade expansion and growth. Improvement in the commodity value
chain, including production, will result in positive effects on trade. The policy has
emphasized the need for the government to channel investment resources in the
agriculture sector to transform its production capacity. This will in turn increase

33
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

efficiency in export trade. There is need for the government to also encourage
investment in commercial farming to increase production; agro-process to
minimize post-harvest losses; and promote out-growers and contract farming
schemes.
Implementation of the National Trade Policy will assist the nation to attain a
competitive economy and export-led economic growth. Growth of the economy
implies that smallholder farmers who are the majority will earn more income out
of crop production, thereby improving their living standards and enhancing both
household and national food security.
b) The 2013 National Agriculture Policy
This policy emphasizes on capturing emerging trade opportunities brought about
by trade integration among partner states of the EAC and the Southern Africa
Development Community (SADC). It has also emphasized the need to eliminate
intra-regional trade barriers and to strive for intra-regional cooperation in
standardization, quality management, metrology and testing of agricultural
products to facilitate intra-regional trade. Both the EAC and SADC trade protocols
call for members to harmonize their sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures
with international standards and to seek synergies in building up regional
capacities in SPS management.
The policy, however, underscores the fact that quality and standard conditions
for fresh agricultural produce limit the intra-SADC agricultural trade in
horticultural produce.
On agricultural marketing, the policy emphasizes that agricultural product
markets are crucial for the development of agricultural commodities and
stimulating agricultural production. Furthermore, the whole set of supportive
infrastructure from production, transportation, storage and processing is vital in
enhancing agricultural marketing.
The key challenges facing the marketing of agricultural products have been
outlined as inadequate quality standards; weak inspectorate mechanisms at
various levels; weak enforcement of agricultural marketing regulations; inadequate
agricultural marketing infrastructure; inadequate agricultural marketing risk
management; inadequately organized primary, secondary and tertiary markets;
and inadequate agricultural market information systems.
The agricultural policy has statements for improving agricultural product
market, infrastructure, information, and quality standards as follows:
(i) Capacities of agricultural marketing actors shall be enhanced in meeting
quality, grades and standards for the domestic, regional and international
markets;

34
 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

(i) The government in collaboration with other stakeholders shall promote the
establishment of Price Stabilization Funds;
(iii) The Government, in collaboration with farmers, farmer groups, associations
and cooperative societies shall enforce regulations governing utilization of
designated buying posts and centres for agro-products;
(iv) The Government, in collaboration with other stakeholders, shall strengthen
and upscale Warehouse Receipt System (WRS) as a basis for the establishment
of commodity exchange; and
(v) Collection, analysis, storage and dissemination of agricultural marketing data
shall be strengthened at all levels.
With the liberalization of trade in 1993, new markets are now available outside
the country where vegetables, fruits and flowers from Tanzania are steadily
gaining export market. Policies on trade liberalization have had their negative
effect on agricultural inputs; for example, some traders have taken advantage of
trade liberalization to import ineffective, experimental chemicals or chemicals
that have long expired or are banned in the industrialized world. The chemical
overflow confuses farmers. There is need to provide education on proper use or
non-use of pesticides and to monitor adherence to set standards (URT, 2002).
c) The 2008 Agricultural Marketing Policy (AMP)
This policy aims to facilitate strategic marketing of agricultural products that ensure
fair returns to all stakeholders based on a competitive, efficient and equitable
marketing system. Its main focus is on crops and livestock due to the fact that
other components of agricultural marketing (fisheries, forestry and beekeeping
sub-sectors) are guided by the National Fisheries Policy, 2003; National Forest
Policy, 1998; National Beekeeping Policy, 1998; and, Wildlife Policy of Tanzania,
1998.
The AMP underscores key constrains to agricultural marketing as inadequate
institutional, legal and regulatory framework; poorly developed and maintained
marketing infrastructure; limited agro-processing and the need to enhance quality
and standards; weak entrepreneurial skills; limited access to finance as well as
inadequate inter-institutional coordination.
The policy has resulted in several benefits such as establishment of a
fair, competitive and sustainable marketing system; improved marketing
infrastructure; accessibility of financial services to agricultural marketing actors;
and provision of incentives to the private sector for increased investments in
agricultural marketing. Emphasis is also given on the government to create a
conducive environment for the private sector to take the lead in marketing of
agricultural inputs.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Some of the key policy objectives include:

• Promote and support value addition in agricultural produce;
• Ensure improved quality and standard of the agricultural products produced
and marketed;
• Improve the legal and regulatory framework for efficient, effective and
transparent performance of the agricultural marketing systems;
• Develop an effective and harmonized institutional framework to enhance the
performance of various stakeholders in agricultural marketing activities;
• Enhance entrepreneurial and marketing skills of agricultural marketing
actors;
• Improve and develop agricultural marketing infrastructure; and
• Improve access to financial services for agricultural marketing.
The policy has set out the institutional framework and coordinating mechanism
that ensures various stakeholders, public and private sectors as well as development
partners actively participate and have a role to play in implementing the policy.
d) The 2009 National Public Private Partnership Policy
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) frameworks provide an important environment
for attracting investments. Appropriate PPP frameworks can provide an effective
alternative source of financing, and management and maintenance of public
sector projects (URT, 2009b). The policy on PPP aims to promote private
sector participation in the provision of resources for PPP enterprises in terms
of investment capital, managerial skills and technology. Specifically, the key
objectives of the policy were to: i) Develop an enabling legal and institutional
framework to guide investments in PPPs; ii) Implement an effective strategy
showing specific obligations and rights for various stakeholders; iii) Introduce fair,
equitable, transparent, competitive and cost-effective procurement processes for
PPPs; iv) Adopt operational guidelines and criteria for PPPs; v) Attract resources
for development of PPPs; vi) Develop institutional capacities for technical analysis
and negotiation of PPPs and associated contracts; and vii) Establish efficient and
quality socio-economic PPPs.
With regard to trade, the policy states that participation in PPPs may take
place in both productive and socio-economic services sectors, including trade,
among others. PPPs constitute a cooperative undertaking whereby each partner
participates to ensure that public needs are best met through the most appropriate
allocation of resources, risks and rewards. Therefore, a national PPP policy
will serve as an important intervention to accelerate economic empowerment

36
 Policies in agricultural production, food security and trade

by ensuring that Tanzanians are adequately empowered in various PPPs

interventions, including the trade sector (URT, 2009b).
The agriculture sector, therefore, is an important sector in driving the economy
of the nation. Its importance is indicated by its contribution to the nation’s GDP,
employment of over 75 per cent of the population, and contributing to export
trade. The sector, however, being dominated by rain-fed smallholder farming
is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Improvement in the sector
through efforts such as promotion of irrigated agriculture and investing in the
improvement of various components of the food value chain will help increase
agricultural productivity, thereby enhancing food security. This will also in turn
improve export trade.

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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

4. Climate Change and Its Implications on

Agricultural Production, Food Security and Trade

4.1 Climate Change and Its Implications on Agricultural Production

Current climate variability and change
Reported observations by local communities and the recent analysis of
climatological information have signalled increased variability of climate in
Tanzania (URT, 2012). There has been a notable increase in temperature in the
highland areas, and shortening of the growing season because of late onset of
rainfall and early cessation of the same. Decreasing rainfall amount and the shift
of the rainfall patterns are a common phenomenon (URT, 2012). Mean annual
maximum and minimum temperature trends have had significant increase in all
meteorological stations in the country. Figure 4.1 depicts increasing temperature
for Bukoba and Zanzibar stations.
The empirical analysis conducted by Mary and Majule (2009) shows that
there was a decreasing trend of rainfall between 1922 and 2007 and an increase
in the minimum and maximum temperatures by 1.9oC and 2.0oC, respectively.
Matari et al. (2008) noted that intra-seasonal and inter-annual rainfall variability
manifests through late onset, early cessation, and increase in dry spells. The study
by Matari et al. (2008) indicates that one common feature of the rainfall pattern is
the greater variability in cycles (Figure 4.1). The intra-seasonal variability was also
observed by Zorita and Tilya (2002) in which they found that October-November-
December (OND) season in the north-eastern highlands of Tanzania had high
variability, which is related to changing large-scale patterns of rising surface
temperature, sea-level and winds. Furthermore, there is a slightly weak decreasing
trend in the mean annual rainfall time series over most of the meteorological
stations (Figure 4.2). However, the observed rainfall trends are not statistically

Figure 4.1: Mean annual maximum temperature time series for

Bukoba and Zanzibar stations (1958-2005)
y = 0.0185x + 25.281 y = 0.0066x + 30.397
2 2
R = 0.3975 32 R = 0.0817
27
26.5 31.5
Temperature(°C)

Temperature(°C)

26
25.5 31
25 30.5
24.5
24 30
23.5 29.5
23
29
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006

1958

1961
1964

1967

1970
1973
1976

1979

1982
1985

1988
1991

1994

1997

2000
2003

2006

YEAR
YEAR

Bukoba station Zanzibar station

Source: Matari et al. (2008)

38
Climate change and its implications on agricultural production, food security and trade

Figure 4.2: Year to year rainfall fluctuations for Songea and Arusha
stations
1200
1000.0
yjfm = -2.6146x + 782.8
900.0 y = -2.1387x + 470.28
1000
yond = -3.1783x + 324.81 JFM 800.0 MAM
y = -1.7962x + 268.86

Rainfall (mm)
700.0
OND
Linear SOND
800
(JFM)
Linear
(OND)
600.0
Linear
500.0 Linear
Rainfall (mm)

(JFM)
Linear
(MAM)
600
(JFM)
Linear
(OND)
400.0 Linear
300.0 (SOND)
400 200.0
100.0
200 0.0

1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
0

YEAR
71

75
61
63
65
67
69

79
81
83
85
87
89
91

05
73

77

93
95
97
99
01
03
19

19
19
19
19
19
19

19
19
19
19
19
19
19

20
19

19

19
19
19
19
20
20

YEARS

Songea station Arusha station

Source: Matari et al. (2008)
significant. Overall, the changes in the mean temperature and rainfall and the
increased variability of rainfall have resulted into prolonged length of dry seasons
and increased severity of periodic droughts (URT, 2012), which have affected crop
production in the country.
Effect of current climate variability on agricultural production
Tanzania is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, changes and
variability in rainfall and temperature patterns have significant impact on the
sector. URT (2007) indicates that some of the previous highly productive areas
such as the southern and northern highlands have and will continue to be affected
by declining rainfall, significant increase in spatial and temporal variability,
and increased dry-spells that will have a long term implication in agricultural
production. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and
Cooperatives (URT, 2008b), there are considerable changes in the types of crops
grown in agro-ecological zones. For example, some farmers in Muheza District
(in Tanga) and Muleba District (in Kagera) have switched to growing cassava and
vanilla because of a declining trend in the productivity of maize and sorghum,
respectively, because the two crops are more tolerant to drought.
Rainfall shortages and drought are critical risks for maize and upland rice
farming. According to a study by the World Bank (2013), yields of maize and
rice have been oscillating around an average of 1.4 tonnes/ha in the last 30 years
with the exception of 1980s and 1990s due to rainfall shortages and drought.
In general, during the period 2000-2007, maize production increased at a slow
rate (2%) than the overall population growth rate (3%) mainly because of rainfall
variability, even though other factors such as low application of fertilizers, low use
of improved seeds, and pests and diseases have contributed to the slow growth
(World Bank, 2013).

39
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Pests and diseases have also contributed to low yields. In general, the observed
changes in temperature that are increasing and rainfall that is slowly decreasing
have paved way for prevalence of crop pests and diseases, thus posing more
challenges to agriculture. The country is observing emerging diseases such as
banana xanthomonas and cassava mosaic, which have become more prevalent
(URT, 2008). Farmers have also noted that incidences of crop pests have increased
over the past few decades. There is also emergence of some new plant species such
as striga spp for cereal crops and vermin such as mole rats, which in turn have
caused increased demand for pesticides and herbicides (URT, 2008).
The livestock industry is another agriculture sub-sector that has been affected
by the current climate change as most of the livestock are concentrated in the
semi-arid and arid areas of Tanzania, which are most vulnerable to climate
change. There has been limited availability of pasture and water due to frequent
droughts that have often resulted into conflicts between livestock keepers and
crop farmers. Current climate change and variability has shifted geographical
distribution of biodiversity and increased the frequency and intensity of wild fires.
For example, palatable and nutritious plant species are replaced by non-palatable
and sometimes toxic species. Biomass growth is also affected by the intensified
wildfires, reducing availability of pasture. Seed cakes and molasses consumed
more in urban agriculture have been affected by reduction in agricultural and
industrial production due to climate change. This has affected availability of
animal feed resources for poultry, non-ruminants and other non-conventional
animals.
Future climate change
Several local studies have been conducted to project climate change by year 2050
and 2100; for example Mwandosya et al. (1998), Matari et al. (2008), Kilembe
et al. (2013) and Wambura et al. (2014). Mwandosya et al. (1998) predicted rise
in mean daily temperature, on average, by 3o to 5oC and a rise in mean annual
temperature, on average, by 2oC to 4oC throughout the country. The study by
Matari et al. (2008) indicates that mean annual temperatures are projected to rise
by 1.7oC over north eastern areas of the country and 2.5oC over the western parts
of the country by 2100.
The climate projection by Kilembe et al. (2013) expresses that the CNRM-CM3
and ECHAM 5 models project a median increase of 2.1°C. The CSIRO Mark 3 and
MIROC 3.2 models also exhibit median temperature increases of around 1.0°C.
The MIROC 3.2 model seems to exhibit spatial variability, which ranges from
0.5°C to 2°C across the country.

40
Climate change and its implications on agricultural production, food security and trade

Wambura et al. (2014) predicted the mean annual temperature to rise by 0.7o
to 1.0oC across the country. The study involved the use CMIP5 climate models with
emission scenario RCP8.5. Despite the differences in climatology of projections,
the changes from the baseline temperatures have been reduced, as the capacity of
modelling the circulation systems increased from using 2CO2 approach to CMIP5
projections.
The rainfall projection by Mwandosya et al. (1998) indicates that bimodal
rainfall pattern will have an increase in rainfall ranging from 5 per cent to 45 per
cent and the unimodal rainfall areas will experience reduced rainfall ranging from
5 per cent to 15 per cent. Matari et al. (2008) indicated that annual precipitation
will increase by 10 per cent over the entire country. Using CMIP3 climate models,
the projected change of rainfall in Tanzania ranges between -100 and 300 mm per
year. Kilembe et al. (2013) reported that MIROC 3.2 model projects increase in
precipitation of around 200 mm to 300 mm by 2050 (Figure 4.3). The ECHAM
5 model projects that most of Tanzania will not have significant change in rainfall
except around Lake Victoria where rainfall is projected to increase by between
100 mm and 200 mm by 2050. The CRNM-CM3 model predicts a decrease in the
rainfall amount by around 100 mm per year around Lake Victoria. The model also
predicts an increase of 50-100 mm for the southern half of the country.
In general, the CMIP5 rainfall projection shows that rainfall will range from -4
per cent to 18 per cent throughout the country; equivalent to between -76 mm to
189 mm of rainfall. In comparison with 2CO2, the prediction of rainfall decrease
and increase do not differ much but CMIP3 results are comparable in the direction
of change of rainfall but the magnitude is twice as much.
Therefore, there is a high level of variability, both geographically and between
scenarios, making any generalization a challenge. This calls for more site-specific

Figure 4.3: Projected maize yield under climate change by 2050

MIROC 3.2 ECHAM 5

41
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

assessments in order to design site-specific policy responses to climate change.

However, even with lack of specific projections, there is a general agreement that
the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events will increase with climate
change. For example, the central and northern zones that are semi-arid are very
vulnerable to climate variability and will be more vulnerable to the projected
increase in frequency and amplitude of extreme climate events.
Future climate change and impact on agricultural production
Tanzania is highly dependent on rain fed agriculture. There is projected increase
in temperature, reduced rainfall in some areas and shifts in rainfall patterns due
to climate change, which will impact on the agricultural sector. There is a general
agreement in the literature that climate change will have negative impacts on
maize and other food crops that are important for domestic consumption even
though there is regional variability (World Bank, 2013). Mwandosya et al. (1998)
projected that maize yields will be lower than under a baseline climate projection
by about 33 per cent across the country. The highest impact was projected to occur
in Dodoma and Tabora with a decline of 84 per cent while the high potential areas
such as southern highlands maize yields are projected to decline by 12 per cent.
According to Kilembe et al. (2013), maize yield was expected to gain by as much
as 25 per cent in many areas, and decrease by the same amount in others using
MIROC model, with the southern Tanzania experiencing yield losses. However,
in the same region, CSIRO model projected that yields will increase by as much
as 25 per cent. Therefore, the projected yields differ significantly in some cases
depending on the type of model used in the projection because of the underlying
assumptions.
The IFPRI IMPACT model which takes into account technology development
into the future projected that rice yields would roughly double between 2010 and
2050 and cassava yields will remain largely unchanged (Kilembe et al., 2013).
However, since the model takes into account other socio-economic factors,
then supply of rice and cassava will not meet demand because of the projected
population growth by 2050. The same model found yields tripling for sorghum,
factoring in both climate change and technological improvements.
Tumbo et al. (2014) conducted a more in-depth site-specific assessment of the
impact of climate change on maize production in the Wami Basin Tanzania using
20 GCMs projections by mid and end century on both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The
basin is comprised of semi-arid region in the upper part and sub-humid region in
the lower part. The study found that there will be negative impact on maize yields.
Simulation results with APSIM indicate that maize yields will decrease by up to
15 per cent towards mid-century under RCP4.5 emission scenario in the semi-arid
areas. The increase in yield is also observed in the sub-humid region for both mid

42
Climate change and its implications on agricultural production, food security and trade

and end-century under RCP 4.5. Under RCP8.5 scenario, yields declined by 20-30
per cent towards end of century using APSIM model. DSSAT indicate there will
be substantial decline in yield in both regions of between 5-15 per cent under RCP
4.5 while under RCP 8.5 the decline is projected to be between 20 per cent and 40
per cent.
Limited research has been conducted to understand the impact of climate
change on pests and diseases in both crops and livestock. Also, model projections
on the impact of climate change on livestock production have not been done.
However, warming due to climate change is predicted to increase disease vectors,
which will consequently increase the incidences of vector-borne diseases of
livestock such as trypanosomiasis and other diseases. The increases of livestock
mortality due to diseases and starvation may have considerable impact on the
local economies and the overall community livelihoods (Kangalawe et al., 2009).

4.2 Climate Change, Food Security and Trade

Climate change and food security

Food security is one of the top ranked issues in Tanzania as explained in various
policy documents such as Vision 2025 and MKUKUTA. Under the MKUKUTA, the
Government of Tanzania is committed to ensuring food and nutritional security
for all Tanzanians (World Bank, 2013). In the National Food Security Policy
(1997), the government underscores the importance of food security, which must
be mainstreamed in the development agenda to ensure a healthy and productive
nation (URT, 2012). In Tanzania, maize and rice are the most important cereals
for food security. However, they are the most climate-sensitive crops, and have
far reaching impacts on food security and overall livelihoods (URT, 2014). Diets
in Tanzania are heavily cereal based, with maize being the most consumed cereal
(5.8 days per week) (URT, 2010b).
In Tanzania, food security and rainfall are closely linked because of dependence
on rain fed agriculture, which accounts for 96 per cent of agricultural area (URT,
2013), and where over 60-70 per cent of cereals are grown in regions with uni-
modal rainfall pattern (URT, 2014). There is a strong correlation between food
security and rainfall as shown in Figure 4.4. Areas with higher levels of vulnerability
to food insecurity largely align with semi-arid zones and arid lands.
Overall, Tanzania is fairly food secure. The MAFC conducts regular food
security monitoring on the different elements of food security and finds that food
availability forecast nationally for 2012/13 is overall satisfactory, with a food self-
sufficiency ratio of 113 per cent, slightly higher than in 2011/12 (112%) (MAFC,
2012). However, major inter and intra-regional and councils variations exist due

43
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

Figure 4.4: Food self-sufficiency and agro-ecological zones

Food self su ciency Agro-ecological zones

to localized food crop failures of varying magnitudes (Kilembe et al., 2013). For
example, food security assessment in 2008 (URT, 2008b) revealed that semi-arid
areas experienced more food shortages and insecurity compared to other districts
(URT, 2012). Even in food secure areas, most households still experience food
security shocks; in 2009/2010, over 88 per cent of households had experienced
at least one shock in the past year, the most common being drought and high
food prices (URT, 2010a). The main factors that contributed to poor yields
are mostly climate-related. It was noted that regardless of the location, most
households experience food shortages during the planting season (URT, 2014).
During this period, most households are near the end of their food stores. Areas
highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture are more exposed to food security risks,
especially when there is a delay in the start of the rainfall season.
With projected changes indicating increased temperatures and possibility of
insignificant change in the rainfall amount, and since cereals are most vulnerable
to temperature rise and rainfall decreases, and from the foregoing discussion
showing some negative and positive yield trends, chances are that the food
security situation is likely to worsen in the future under business as usual scenario.
Arndt et al. (2011) noted that even though there will be a relative decline in food
production, the impact of climate change on food availability will likely be offset
by benefits in accessibility, especially improved transport systems. The IFPRI
IMPACT model, taking into account technological development, showed slightly
higher maize yields for 2050 than 2010, tripling of sorghum yields and doubling of
rice yields, implying that climate change would have a positive impact (Kilembe et
al., 2013). However, the demand for food is expected to outstrip supply, which will
lead to importation of food. The importation will highly be influenced by increase

44
Climate change and its implications on agricultural production, food security and trade

in population. Kilembe et al. (2013) projects that the population level is expected
to reach 95 million persons under pessimistic scenario and 125 million persons
under optimistic scenario, meaning doubling population between 2010 and 2050.
Tumbo et al. (2014) found that under adapted future climates, APSIM and DSSAT
crop models show an increase in maize yields in Wami basin by between 29 per
cent and 100 per cent, with DSSAT projecting much lower increase compared to
APSIM. The adapted future condition is based on improved agronomic conditions
of proper plant spacing, and increased use of fertilizer in the rain-fed agricultural
systems.
Therefore, the food security situation under climate change depends on urgent
technological and adaptation actions that the government has to undertake
to improve agronomic practices. Most of the actions have been identified in
the National Climate Change Strategy (URT, 2012) and Agriculture Climate
Resilience Plan (URT, 2014). Business as usual practice will definitely undermine
food security because of climate change, in which temperatures are expected to
increase by at least 1oC by 2050 and country population is projected to reach at
least 95 million.
Climate change and food trade
The effect of climate change on agricultural trade and especially food trade,
which is directly linked to food security, will be seen in mainly imports, exports
and prices. Under business as usual scenario, we expect yields to decline, area
expansion to be limited but population to double. This scenario clearly implies
increased importation of most cereals because of a rise in demand and prices
of cereals. The IFPRI-IMPACT model showed that there will be a rise in maize
imports and import prices (Kilembe et al., 2013). In the case of cassava, the model
shows little change in yields but still the demand for cassava is expected to outstrip
supply, leading to a dramatic rise in imports but minimal change in world prices is
expected. Rice imports will also rise and so will the international price.
Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the World Bank study
found that under dry scenario, agricultural GDP will drop by 11.5 per cent
compared to the baseline (2010) by year 2040 (World Bank, 2013). This will affect
the supply of raw inputs such as grain for the agro-processing sectors such as
milling. The agro-processing GDP will drop by 7.8 per cent compared to baseline.
Food imports, however, are expected to increase, offsetting declined domestic
production and potentially benefitting some traders. The model also indicates
that households will be affected by climate change through consumer prices and
agriculture incomes. However, the increase in consumer prices may attract some
households to reallocate their resources to the affected agricultural sectors in
order to benefit from the high prices.

45
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

In comparison to Tanzania’s major trading partners, the country may mildly

be affected by dry conditions, giving it a comparative advantage to export (World
Bank, 2013). For example, area under sorghum is expected to expand by 40 per
cent and the yield to increase, which will lead to quadrupling of production. The
country is expected to export around 70 per cent of production by 2050 (Kilembe
et al., 2013). Globally, the market for maize is projected to increase to 1.4 billion
tonnes by 2030 from 0.9 billion tonnes in 2015 (SAGCOT, 2011). The country
demand is also expected to increase from the current 3.8 million tonnes in 2015
to 5.5 million tonnes by 2030. In order for the country to feed its people and
take advantage of external markets, farmers need to use improved seeds, relevant
fertilizers, improved farming techniques, and the creation of economies of scale
(SAGCOT, 2011). It is envisaged that a 20 per cent increase of both yields and
planted area would produce about 1.3 million MT that could be consumed locally
and by neighbouring countries.

46
5. Conclusion and Recommendations

5.1 Conclusion
Agriculture remains a mainstay of Tanzania’s economy. The sector contributes
significantly to the national GDP and export earnings, supplies raw material for
agro-industries, supports the rural livelihoods and feeds the urban population.
It is important in managing inflation as it constitutes over half of the inflation
basket reflected in consumer price indices. However, the sector is dominated
by smallholders managing small family farms of around one ha, with limited
industrial inputs and access to modern farm technologies.
Over the past decade, the sector’s growth rate has stagnated at around 4 per
cent. Agriculture has to grow much faster (6%) than it has been over the past
decade. The agriculture sector is accorded the highest priority in the national
development policies as an engine of growth and poverty reduction. The main
policy goal is to achieve food security and eradicate poverty and hunger through
agriculture development and transformation.
Productivity in crop agriculture is still low at around 1-2 tonnes per ha for
cereals and grain legumes that are central to the national food security. The
sector is predominantly rain-fed, hence prone to the vagaries of weather that
will intensify with climate change. Tanzania has a huge potential of advancing its
agriculture sector. Less than a quarter of its arable land (44 million) is currently
cultivated. Smallholders manage around 14 million ha and large-scale commercial
farming accounts for 1.5 million ha. The country is using less than 2 per cent of
its irrigation potential (450,392 out 29.4 ha suitable for irrigation). The use of
productivity-enhancing inputs, particularly both organic and inorganic fertilizer,
is overly limited. Productivity can also be upgraded in its rain-fed systems through
better agronomic and soil-water management.
Tanzania has a huge potential in livestock production–ranking second in Africa
after Ethiopia in terms of number of livestock heads (20 million cattle and 17
million goats and sheep). It was third before the split of Sudan into the now Sudan
and South Sudan. However, the contribution of the livestock sector to the national
GDP is still around 18 per cent - and to agriculture 15 per cent. The livestock sector
is dominated by indigenous cattle (80%) kept mainly under agro-pastoral system
for dual purpose of supplying meat and milk. Only around 6 per cent of cattle are
under commercial and smallholder dairy production systems. Productivity in the
livestock sector, especially in the traditional system, is low.
Amid a number of productivity challenges in the agriculture sector, Tanzania
is fairly a food secure country. When food security is envisioned beyond the

47
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

pillar of availability – to access, stability and utilization – the country has miles
to stride before achieving a sustainable food security. Over the vast country and
across seasons, there is normally localized food insecurity due to locational crop
failures of varying magnitudes. The food security risks made worse by a poorly
integrated food system that does not enable movement of foods from surplus to
deficit regions efficiently and affordably.
The Government of Tanzania has implemented a number substantial
programmes of trade liberalization that started in the 1980s and by 1990 virtually
all restrictions on private trade in grains had been removed. Since then, food trade
was liberalized, encouraging private sector participation. However, trade of food
crops is occasionally interrupted by export bans by the government in cases of
anticipated food shortage mainly due to droughts.
Agricultural food trade has not grown to the anticipated pace to contribute
to growth, livelihood improvements and food security. Due to fluctuations in
domestic supply from local production and demand, Tanzania exports and imports
food products. The major food products envisaged in the export and import
trading portfolio are maize and rice. Others include wheat, sunflower, sorghum,
beans and pulses. Over almost a decade, the annual growth in quantity and value
of major food exports (e.g. maize and rice) has been fluctuating with net export
balances in most of the years (6 out of 9 years). However, the global export share
of Tanzania is infinitesimally low; for example 0.1 per cent for maize. In contrast
with food exports, food imports increase during drought years. The terms of trade
in food crops is sensitive to the quality of the growing seasons.
The impact of climate change on the performance of the agriculture sector is
real. Climate change augments to the odds that the sector is already experiencing
from climate variability. The future mid-century projections indicate that different
agro-ecological zones will be warmer–with a temperature rise of 0.5o-2oC across
the country. The impacts of climate change on rainfall over the country are mixed
with respect to the amount of precipitation–with a decrease of up to 200 mm
in some parts and an increase of up to 300 mm in other areas. Crop yields will
increase in some parts and decrease in others. Food trade will be affected as well.
With reduced yields, prices will hike and vice versa. In this regard, climate change
will be associated with challenges and opportunities at the same time. With
increasing precipitation in the currently drier areas, productivity might improve,
ceteris paribus. A slight increase of temperature in cooler places of southern
highlands could shorten the maturity period of maize.
Tanzania has a landscape of policies, strategies and programmes to improve
agricultural productivity and enhance agricultural trade to deliver food security
and poverty reduction. In the policy planning processes, efforts are normally

48
 Conclusion and recommendations

made to mainstream important cross-cutting issues such as climate change,

HIV-AIDS, gender and ICT. The importance of mainstreaming climate change
in the agricultural policies and plans has been increasingly acknowledged. The
agriculture sector was the first to initiate the development of the agriculture
climate change resilience plan, which has been recently endorsed by the sector
management. The policy challenge around agricultural production, trade, climate
change and food security is not lack of policies but how to coordinate policy plans
and actions in different agriculture line sectors.

5.2 Recommendations

Developing smallholder agriculture is critical for economic growth and poverty

reduction. This could be attained through improved productivity and profitability
of small family farms. Productivity in agriculture has to be increased in both rain
fed and irrigated smallholder farms. This can be attained through increased use
of productivity-enhancing technologies such as fertilizer, improved seeds and best
agronomic practices. Moreso, productivity of the livestock sector can be upgraded
through breeding and progeny selection, animal husbandry, feeding and disease
management programmes.
Given the predominant current small scale farming amid under-utilized
agricultural land, there is potential in promoting medium and large-scale
commercial agriculture with a working investment model that integrates
smallholder farmers.
Achieving sustainable food security requires fostering efficient food systems
that are fuelled by efficient and pro-poor food trade systems–smartly anchored
on robust trade policies and governance. This would enhance food trade
administration and governance, given problems associated with food export bans,
food import permits and tariff regimes.
Fostering climate change resilience in the agriculture sector is central for
ensuring sustainable growth of the agriculture sector. Cushioning the agriculture
sector from climatic risks can involve promoting climate-smart agricultural
practices such as irrigation, soil-water conservation, and adapted crop varieties.
The climate research has to advance in generating downscaled area-specific
results to inform policies that address the challenges and exploit opportunities
that will arise with climate change.
Better coordination of policies related with improvement of agriculture
production, trade, food security and climate change is critical. The agriculture
line ministries’ plans have to be coordinated and harmonized through effective

49
Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

platforms such as joint committees and meetings. The coordination should be

extended to involve other sectors and departments whose policies and plans have
implications on agriculture at large.

50
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Assessment of Tanzania’s agricultural production, climate change, agricultural trade and food security

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