101 1 January 2012

Board of Trustees
Chair Thomas Pickering

December 2011 Trends

Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan (p.5) Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2) Guinea-Bissau (p.4) Iraq (p.11) Nigeria (p.4) Sudan (p.3) South Sudan (p.3) Senegal (p.4) Kazakhstan (p.4) Pakistan (p.6)

Improved Situations
Bosnia (p.7)

President and CEO Louise Arbour Executive Committee Morton Abramowitz Cheryl Carolus Maria Livanos Cattaui Yoichi Funabashi Frank Giustra Ghassan Salam George Soros Pr Stenbck Adnan Abu-Odeh Kenneth Adelman Kofi Annan Nahum Barnea Samuel Berger Emma Bonino Wesley Clark Sheila Coronel Uffe Ellemann-Jensen Gareth Evans Mark Eyskens Joshua Fink Joschka Fischer Jean-Marie Guhenno Carla Hills Lena Hjelm-Walln Swanee Hunt Mo Ibrahim Igor Ivanov Asma Jahangir Wim Kok Ricardo Lagos Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Lord (Mark) Malloch-Brown Lalit Mansingh Jessica Tuchman Mathews Benjamin Mkapa Moiss Nam Ayo Obe Paul Reynolds Gler Sabanc Javier Solana Lawrence Summers Chairmen Emeritus Martti Ahtisaari George J. Mitchell President Emeritus Gareth Evans

Unchanged Situations
Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.10), Bangladesh (p.5), Belarus (p.8), Bolivia (p.9), Burundi (p.2), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), Colombia (p.9), Cte dIvoire (p.3), Cyprus (p.9), Ecuador (p.9), Egypt (p.11), Eritrea (p.2), Ethiopia (p.2), Georgia (p.8), Guatemala (p.9), Guinea (p.4), Haiti (p.9), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.10), Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.10), Jordan (p.11), Kashmir (p.5), Kenya (p.2), Kosovo (p.7), Kyrgyzstan (p.5), Lebanon (p.10), Liberia (p.4), Libya (p.11), Macedonia (p.8), Madagascar (p.3), Malawi (p.3), Mali (p.4), Mauritania (p.11), Mexico (p.9), Moldova (p.8), Morocco (p.12), Myanmar/Burma (p.6), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.8), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8), North Korea (p.5), Papua New Guinea (p.7), Peru (p.10), Philippines (p.7), Rwanda (p.2), Serbia (p.8), Somalia (p.2), Somaliland (p.3), Sri Lanka (p.6), Syria (p.10), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Tunisia (p.12), Turkey (p.9), Turkmenistan (p.5), Ukraine (p.8), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Western Sahara (p.12), Yemen (p.11), Zimbabwe (p.3)

January 2012 Watchlist

Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Opportunities

CrisisWatch
summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be both); and summarises Crisis Groups reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Groups Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our some 140 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and resources page at www.crisisgroup.org.

Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 130 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Groups approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour.

Africa
Central Africa
Burundi DefendantsinSeptGatumbamassacrecase9Decplead

Rwanda Gunman1DeckilledoppositionjournalistCharles

IngabireinKampala;oppositionRwandanPeoplesPartyleader claimedkillingpoliticallymotivated.
Rwandanjournalistiskilled,Reuters,3Dec.2011.

Horn of Africa
Eritrea UNSC5DecimposedtightersanctionsonEritreafor

notguilty;maindefendant13Decaccusedseniorpoliceofresponsibility.UNSRSG7DecsaidBurundiconsolidatingpeacebut challengesremain;UNSC20DecextendedUNofficeinBurundi mandatetoFeb2013citingextrajudicialkillings,mediarepression. Rightsgroup9Decsaidatleast43oppositionmembersarrested earlyDecforactsofterrorism.Trialof23accusedofterrorism includingRFIcorrespondentHassanRuvakuki,duetostart28Dec, suspendedto5Jan.InNewYearspeech,PresidentNkurunziza saidgovtwillnotnegotiatewithopposition.Tensionsgrewwithin Upronaparty;nightwatchmankilledin11Decclashes,several arrestedincludingformerpartychairmanJean-BaptisteManwangari.Anti-CorruptionwatchdogOLUCOM26Decsaidgovtwould bebroughtbeforeEastAfricancourtonallegationsofembezzlement,misusing$13.7mdebtrepaidbyUganda2005-2007.
UNCouncilseesgravefearsoverBurundideaths,AFP,20Dec.2011.

supportingSomaliasal-Shabaab;govtsaidsanctionsillegal andunjust,24DeccalledonUNtoreplacebiasedmonitoring grouponSomalia.Ethiopia-basedEritreanSalvationFrontand RedSeaAfarDemocraticOrganisationrebels2Decsaidthey killed17soldiers.

UNslamsEritreaforIslamicmilitantsupport,AP,5Dec.2011.

Ethiopia OppositionUnityforDemocracyandJustice(UDJ)

CentralAfricanRepublic UNSC21Decextendedpeacebuilding

office(BINUCA)mandatetoJan2013;headofBINUCA14Dec warnedlackoffundingfordemobilisationcouldundermine peaceefforts.

UNofficialinCentralAfricanRepublicurgessupportfordemobilization, UNNewsCentre,14Dec.2011.

leaderGizachewShiferaw11Decresigned;newUDJleader,exPresidentNegassoGidada,12Decaccusedgovtofcreatingdictatorship.AmnestyInternational16Decsaidgovtusinganti-terror lawstosilenceopposition,over114arrestedsinceMarch.Court 28Decsentencedto11yearsinprison2Swedishjournalistsfound guiltyofhelping,promotingoutlawedOgadenNationalLiberation Frontrebelgroup.300seniorofficersincluding13generalsretired fromarmy26Decaspartofleadershipsuccessionplan.

OppositionleaderlabelsEthiopiangovernmentdictatorship,VOA,12 Dec.2011.

Kenya Military3DecclaimedSomaliasal-Shabaabcommand

Chad PresidentDby7DecreiteratedsupportforDohaPeace

AgreementforDarfurfollowingvisittoSudan.Priortovisit,Sudan securityforcesreportedlyarrested2ndVPofoppositionUnion ofResistanceForcesAbdelwahidAboudMakaye,onlyremaining ChadianrebelleaderinSudan,atrequestofChadgovt.ICC13Dec referredgovtsrefusaltoarrestSudanesePresidentBashirtoUNSC.

ChadfailedtoarrestSudanesepresident,ICCtellsSecurityCouncil,UN NewsCentre,13Dec.2011.

DemocraticRepublicofCongo Tensionsremainedhighfollowing

disputedNovelections,withcontinueddeadlyviolenceandrepressionbysecurityforces.PresidentKabilaswornin20Decdespite majorandwidespreadirregularitiesreportedinvote;Kabila12Dec admittedflawsinelectionsbutrejectedreportsbyinternational observers,includingEUandCarterCenter,thatresultslacked credibility.Countingofballotsforlegislativepollscontinues, withoutadditionalinternationalassistanceinitiallyagreedby authorities.HumanRightsWatch2Decsaidatleast18killedin lateNovelectionviolence,21Decsaidatleast24killedbysecurity forces,dozensarbitrarilydetainedsince9Dec;authoritiespledged toinvestigate.6killedinclashes9-10Decafteroppositionleader EtienneTshisekedideclaredhimselfpresident;police23Decused stungrenades,teargastodispersepeopleattemptingtoattend Tshisekedisself-proclaimedinauguration.MONUSCO21Dec announcedcrackdownonIturimilitias.
CrisisGroupUrgentMediaRelease,DRCongo:SavingtheElections,8 Dec.2011. DRCongoPresidentJosephKabilabeginssecondterm,BBC,20Dec. 2011.

structuredismantled,17DecthreatenedairraidsdeepinSomalia, saidwouldneverrelentuntilKenyafeelssafe.Conductedseries ofattacks13-15Deconal-ShabaabcampsinnorthernSomalia; 20Deckilled10,injured13inairstrikeinJubaborderregion;21 Deckilledal-Shabaabcommander,18militiainairstrikesnear border.Military25Deccontinuedtodenyallegationscivilians attackedinairstrikes,28Decsaid200al-Shabaabkilledinrecent airraids.Al-Shabaabretaliatoryattackscontinued.Seriesofattacks onsecurityforcesatDadaabrefugeecamp11-19Dec;9soldiers injuredbylandmine11DecnearMandera;explosionwounded 6inindependencedayparadeinWajirtown12Dec;2grenades wounded7inattackonnightclubineastWajir.Authorities21Dec confirmeddeaththreatsagainstDefenceMinisterandDeputy Speaker,bothethnicSomaliswhosupportedmilitarycampaign againstal-Shabaab.Gunman30DeckilledheadofCommunity PeaceandSecurityTeam,Hagaderacamp,Dadaab;gunman1Jan killedSomalirefugeeleaderatIfocamp,Dadaab.4killed4Decby suspectedEthiopianraidersonvillageinMoyaledistrict;atleast10 killed25-28Dec,9killed30DecinpastoralistclashesnearIsiolo town,northernKenya.
KenyanforcesdestroyalShabaabcamps,Standard,17Dec.2011.

Somalia Al-Shabaab20DecattackedAMISOMtroopsinDayniile

inheaviestfightingsincetheirAugwithdrawalfromMogadishu; firstelementsof900-strongDjiboutianAMISOMcontingent arrivedinMogadishu20Dec.Al-ShabaabearlyDecbannedaid organisations,UNbodiesforfosteringsecularism,amplifying refugeecrisis.3aidworkerskilled23DecincentralSomalia.At least10killed28DecinclashbetweenTransitionalFederalGovt (TFG)troopsandal-Shabaab,lowerJubaprovince.Parliament13 Decvotedtoimpeach,replaceSpeakerSharifHassanSheikhAden; violencebrokeoutbetweenMPs14DecwhenDeputySpeaker

refusedentry.AtSomalinationalconsultativeconstitutional conference21-23Dec,participantsincludingseniorTFGofficials, representativesfromPuntlandandGalmudugstates,civilsociety signedGarowePrinciplesagreeingtofinaliseconstitutionby April2012,reformparliamentAug2012.Well-knownclerickilled 5DecinBosaso;Puntlandauthorityandal-Shabaabaccusedeach otherofassassination.Galkayoairportshelled14Dec;Puntland administrationblamedgroupsbasedinGalmudug.2killed26Dec bygunmaninGalkayo;1killed25Decand3policemenkilled27 DecbyroadsidebombsinBosaso.7killed17Decinclashbetween AhluSunnamilitiaandforcesledbySomaliMPAbdifatahin Abudwaqtown,Galgudud,sparkingfearsAhluSunnawithdrawing supportforTFG.Heavyfightingerupted1Janbetweenal-Shabaab andAhluSunnainGalgudud.
Al-ShabaabinsurgentsattackAMISOMforcesinMogadishu,Garowe Online,21Dec.2011.

PopularCongressParty(PCP)memberIbrahimal-Sanousiafter PCPcalledforpopularrevolt.
CommentbyAlainDltroz,Laguerreetladcompositionplanentsurle Soudandal-Bachir,Le Temps,8Dec.2011. Sudansgovernmentsayspowerfulrebelleaderisdead,New York Times,25Dec.2011.

Southern Africa
Madagascar AUPeaceandSecurityCommission9Dec

announcedliftingofsanctionsonPresidentAndryRajoelina, indicatingsatisfactionwitheffortstosetupconsensusgovt,urged formerPresidentsAlbertZafyandRatsirakatosignPeaceand Reconciliationaccord.

AfricanUniontoliftsanctionsagainstMadagascar,Afriqueenligne,9 Dec.2011.

Somaliland 3killed12DecinareacontestedbySomalilandand

SomaliasPuntlandregion,inclashesbetweenpro-Somaliland ethnicgroupandgroupsupportingPuntland.LeaderofnewlyformedHizbullahPartyarrested19DecforformingIslamistparty inviolationofconstitution.

FightingeruptsbetweentwolocalmilitiasinTaleeh,Somaliland Press, 12Dec.2011.

Malawi ICC13DecreferredMalawitoUNSCforrefusingto

arrestSudanesePresidentBashir;govtthreatenedtowithdraw fromICCStatute.
Govtrecommendsreviewofdraconianlaws,MediaInstituteofSouthern Africa,13Dec.2011.

SouthSudan TensionswithSudancontinuedtoescalatefollow-

Zimbabwe ZANU-PFconference10Decresolvedtoclampdown

ingNovAU-mediatedtalks,duetoreconveneJan.SudanandS SudanarmedforcesclashedindisputedJauterritoryearlyDec. PresidentKiir16DecaccusedSudanoftryingtodestabilisecountrywithcross-bordermilitiaraids,bombings;deniedallegations SSudansupportingmilitiasfightingSudaneseArmedForcesin SKordofan,BlueNilestates.Govt21DecaccusedKhartoumof forciblyconscriptingsouthernstudents;29DecsaidSudaneseair raidkilled17inWesternBahral-Ghazalborderstate;Khartoum denied.LouNuerandMurlejointdialoguepostponedtoJanamid escalatingviolence.Atleast40killedinclashes,cattleraidingin JongleiearlyDec;UN26DecwarnedthousandsofarmedLou NueryouthsplanningattackonMurletribe.VPRiekMachar 20DecannouncedrebelGeorgeAthorkilledbySPLAfollowing stringofrebelattacksnearstatecapitalBorandinPigicounty.U.S. earlyDecamendedeconomicsanctionsagainstSudantoallow U.S.investmentinSSudanoilmarket.
SouthSudanaccusesSudanofdestabilizationefforts,AlArabiyaNews, 16Dec.2011.

Sudan RebelJEMescalatedmilitaryoperationsinNKordofan;

onandde-registerinternationalNGOssuspectedofsupporting regimechange;PresidentMugabesaidhewillleadZANU-PF inelections.JusticeMinisterPatrickChinamasa20Decsaid MugabemaydissolveParliamentinordertoforceelections2012, MDCsaidprerequisitepoliticalreformsnotyetimplemented. Constitutiondraftingprocessstalled22DecasZANU-PFalleged draftershadincludedprovisionsnotinNationalReport;MDC-T 24DecquestionedauthenticityofNationalReport,allegeditwas doctoredbyZANU-PF.MDC-NandZANU-PFagreedNational Reportreflectsoriginalinputfromoutreachprocess.Mugabes lateDecpromotionofMajorGeneralDouglasNyikayaramba heightenedtensionswithinunitygovt;Nyikayarambapreviously saidPMTsvangiraiconstitutedthreattonationalsecurity,is accusedofpoliticalinterference.JointMonitoringandImplementationCommittee(JOMIC)6DecagainaskedtomeetwithPolice CommissionerAugustineChihuritodiscusspoliticalviolence, allegedlypartisanpoliceenforcement.2MediaMonitoringProject Zimbabwe(MMPZ)advocatesandchairmanofpublicinformation rightsforumarrested5Dec;police6DecraidedofficesofMMPZ, detaineddirectorforseveralhours.
Copacstopsdraftingnewconstitution,Herald,22Dec.2011.

stalledby23DeckillingofleaderKhalilIbrahiminpinpoint airstrike,raisingsuspicionofforeigninvolvement.Sudanese ArmedForces(SAF)3Decclaimedstrategicvictoryagainst rebelsinSKordofan,saidsupplyrouteandSPLAcampsnear lakeJaucapturedafterclashesnearJautown.AUmediators20 Decannounced2stateswillresumeoiltalksJan.Govt17Dec criticisedUNSGBancallforwithdrawalofSAFfromAbyei,said regionbelongstonorth;UNSC23DecextendedUNISFAmandate inAbyeifor5months.Govt29Decsaid350JEMcombatants28 DeccrossedintoSSudaninarmedvehicles,carryingstolengoods, cash,abductedcivilians;Khartoumplanstofilecomplaintwith UNSC,AU.UNDP8Decsaidtensionsineastrenewed,fighters fromBejaethnicgroupgatheredonEritreansideofborder.New inclusivegovtannounced7Decafter4monthsofconsultationwith opposition.Securityservices19Decarrestedleadingopposition

West Africa
CtedIvoire Legislativeelectionsheld11Decinrelativecalm

despite7DecrocketblastatcampaignrallyinGrand-Lahou thatkilled3.PresidentOuattarasRallyofRepublicans(RDR) secured127of254parliamentaryseats,DemocraticPartyofCte dIvoire(PDCI)77;36%turnoutpartlyduetoboycottbyformer PresidentGbagbosIvorianPopularFront(FPI).10injured15 DecinshootoutinYopougonbetweenRepublicanForcesofCte dIvoire(FRCI)andmilitialoyaltoHonorSea.Ouattara20Dec announcedcreationofmilitarypolicetoreininroguesecurity forcesafterFRCIelementskilledatleast6inVavoua17-18Dec.4 killed,3injuredinclashes25-26DecbetweenindigenousAbidji
3

andFRCIinSikensi.Gbagbo5DecappearedbeforeICCforcrimes againsthumanity;hearingscheduledforJune.
CommentbyGillesYabi,CtedIvoire:Lesquatrepigesviteren 2012,SlateAfrique,23Dec.2011. Vavoua:affrontementFRCI-populationsfaitcinqmorts,Agence Ivoirienne de Presse,18Dec.2011.

AQIMclaimedresponsibilityfor23-25Novabductionsof5 Europeanswhichleft1dead.FollowingraidbyWestern-Sahara Polisarioseparatiststhatsaw1killed,3kidnapped,govt17Dec saidPolisarioincursionsonMalianterritorywouldnolongerbe tolerated.Touaregrebels22DecmetPresidentTour,saidready toworkwithgovt.

AlgeriantroopsinMalitocombatQaedagroups,AFP,20Dec.2011.

New CrisisGroupAfricaBriefingN83,Cte dIvoire: Continuing the Recovery,16Dec.2011.Despiteamarkedimprovementineconomicgovernanceandtheholdingoflegislativeelectionsingoodsecurityconditions on11DecemberinCtedIvoire,thedivisionswithinthesecurityforcescarry ariskofviolentconfrontationwhilethevictorsjusticetargetingonlyformer PresidentGbagbosfollowershampersreconciliation. Guinea Nationalelectoralcommission(CENI)16Decannounced

Niger PresidentIssoufou18Decrequestedparliamentliftimmu-

nityforMPssuspectedofembezzlement.FormerPMOumarouin 17Decdemandedindependentinquiryinto4Decclashbetween policeandprotestersdemandingreleaseofoppositionpolitician AboubacarMahamadouwhichkilled2,injureddozens;6police chiefssackedasresult.

LeprsidentduNigerdemandelalevedelimmunitdesdputs souponnsdedtournements,RFI,20Dec.2011.

suspensionofactivityuntil6Jan,indefinitepostponementoflegislativeelectionsscheduled29Dec,aftermeetingswithpolitical parties,mediators.Standoffcontinueswithinmajortradeunion NationalConfederationofGuineanWorkersasjudiciary16Dec invalidated2competingcongresseswhichelected2different leaders.Govt31Decforcedabout4,600soldiersintoretirement; fearsmovecouldangerarmy.

LaCENIsuspendsesactivitspour15jours,reporteleslgislatives!, MediaGuine,17Dec.2011.

Nigeria PresidentJonathan31Decdeclaredstateofemergency

Guinea-Bissau Renegadesoldiers26DecassaultedBissauarmy

HQinattempttoremovearmychiefIndjai;AngolanMISSANG troopsintervenedtopreventabductionofPMGomesJnior; atleast2killed.NavychiefBubonaTchuto,formerarmychief WatnanaLaiandatleast30othersincludingseveralpoliticians accusedoforchestratingattack,heldinMansoamilitarygarrison. UNSGBan27Deccondemneduseofforcetosettledifferences, AU29DecappointedBurkinabPresidentCompaormediator. Govt,CommunityofPortugueseLanguageCountries(CPLP)and ECOWASfailedtoreachsecuritysectorreformagreement;army chiefsaiddeploymentofECOWAStroopscouldplungecountry intoturmoil.Tensionscontinuedbetweenoppositionandruling PAIGCoverPresidentSanhashealth,possiblereplacementby NationalAssemblyPresidentRaimundoPereira,roleofMISSANG troops.UNIOGBISmandateextendeduntilFeb2013.
TwodeadasBissautroopshuntfailedcoupsuspects,AFP,26Dec. 2011.

after22-25,29DecBokoHarambombingsandgunattacksacross NortheastandinAbujakillingover100,leaving90,000displaced innortheasternDamaturucity.Police19Deccaptured14Boko Harammilitants,seizedbomb-makingequipmentinKanoafter shootoutthatleft3policeand4militantsdead.10killed13Decin MaiduguriinBokoHaramblasttargetingsoldiers,whoallegedly retaliatedwithindiscriminateshooting,arson.BombfactorydiscoveredinMaiduguriafter17Decresidentialblast,largequantities ofIEDmaterials,AK-47rifles,ammunitionuncovered.Atleast 50killedin31Decethniclandclash,Ebonyistate.

BokoHaramsuspectsheldafterNigerianshootout,Guardian,19Dec. 2011.

Senegal PresidentWade23Decconfirmedintentiontorunfor

controversial3rdterminFebelection;oppositionparties1Dec failedtorallybehindsinglecandidatetochallengehim.Increasing concernsoverreporteduseofyouthsbypoliticalactorstointimidaterivals;leaderofSocialistPartysyouthleagueBarthlmyDias 23DecopenedfireonreportedlyarmedWadesupporters,leaving 1dead.AttacksbyseparatistCasamanceMovementofDemocratic Forces(MFDC)onmilitarypositions13,20Deckilled13soldiers; 5heldhostage.Duringmeetingboycottedbyseparatisthardliners, MFDCmoderateJean-MarieFranoisBiagui17Decannounced plantotransformgroupintopoliticalparty.

13killedinCasamancefighting,WADR,20Dec.2011.

Liberia ReconciliationtalksbetweenrulingUnityParty(UP)and

oppositionCongressforDemocraticChange(CDC)collapsed19 DecafterreportedCDCrequestfordismissalofjusticeminister, keygovtpositions.UNSC14Decrenewedpanelofexpertsmandatemonitoringcompliancewithsanctionsimposedinconnection withcivilwar,17Decprolongedarmsembargoby12months,citing politicalsituationasthreattoregionalsecurity.Policefloggingof 3journalists17-20Decpromptedconcernsoverpressfreedom. Securityforces23Decfiredteargastodispersethousandsof youthsprotestingovergovtlatepaymentforpart-timejobs;curfew imposed,InformationMinistersacked.

UNrefusestosuspendarmsembargoonLiberia,Africa Review,17Dec. 2011.

Asia
Central Asia
Kazakhstan Atleast15peoplekilled,100injured,around40build-

Mali Army20DecannouncedAlgeriantroopscrossedinto

northernMalitoassistincounterterrorismoperationsagainst groupsaffiliatedtoAl-QaedaintheIslamicMaghreb(AQIM).
4

ingsburneddown16Decascrowdincludingsackedoilworkers clashedwithgovtforcesinwesterntownJanaozenfollowing 6-monthstrike.Authorities17Decdeclaredstateofemergency, curfewinJanaozen,accusedhooligansoforganisingmass disorder,saidpolicefiredinself-defence.Phone,internet,and mobileconnectionsintotowntemporarilycutoff.Localresidents andoilworkers17-18DecralliedinShetpeandregionalcapital

Aktauagainstpoliceuseofforce.16peoplearrestedover16Dec violence,whichmarksgrowinginstabilityinwest,increasing socialtensions,stateconfusion.Eyewitnesses,oppositionactivitistsallege16Deccasualtiesmuchhigher,reportsofmassarrests andtorture.PresidentNazarbayevvisitedregion22Dec,sacked seniorcompanyexecutives,regionalgovernorandson-in-law TimurKulibayev,thoughmoveconsideredunlikelytoaffectlatters politicalprominence.Prosecutor-general22DecinvitedUNto takepartininvestigationsintoclashes,29Decannouncedcriminalinvestigationintopoliceactions.Inseparatedevelopments, securityservicesresponsetoarmedjihadistattacksprovoking questionsaboutstatesabilitytohandlesecuritychallenges.5 membersofIslamistgroupJundal-Khilafahand2membersof elitepoliceforcekilled3DecinoperationsinsouthernBoraldai village;militantsbelievedresponsibleforkillingof2police8Nov. CollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization(CSTO)members20Dec agreedestablishmentofmilitaryfacilitiesinmemberstatesby outsidecountriesneedsapprovalofallCSTOmembers.
Thickerthanoil,Economist,31Dec.2011.

North East Asia

NorthKorea Statetelevision19Decannounceddeath2days

earlierofKimJong-il;youngestsonKimJong-undeclaredgreat successor.Funeraltookplace28Dec.Priortoannouncement ofKimJong-ilsdeath,DPRK19Decreportedlytest-firedshortrangemissileoneasterncoast.UNSGBanexpressedsympathyto NKoreanpeople,saidUNwouldcontinueprovidingassistance. Chinaendorsednewleader,invitedhimtovisitChina.U.S.20 DeclaidoutconditionsforimprovedrelationswithDPRK,stated hopesforprogressondenuclearisation,saidU.S.continuingwith discussionsonresumingfoodaid.U.S.Congress14Decpassed legislationintroducingsanctionsagainstcountriesorcompanies thathelpDPRKpursuenuclear,chemicalorbiologicalweapons ormissileprograms.
Griefandfear,Economist,31Dec.2011.

Kyrgyzstan New4-partycoalitiongovtformedbyincoming

presidentAtambaev;parliament23DecelectedcloseAtambatev associateandhighlycontroversialpoliticianOmurbekBabanov asnewPM,UNSGBan2Deccalledonnewgovttoencourage nationaldialogue,reconciliation.UNHCHRPillaycriticised SupremeCourts20DecconfirmationoflifesentenceforUzbek activistAzimjonAskarov,jailedoverroleinJune2010ethnicviolenceinsouth.UNSpecialRapporteurontortureMendez14Dec saidtorturestillwidelyusedduringinterrogationsinKyrgyzstan. Parliamentspeaker12Decresignedoverallegedcriminallinks.

Kyrgyzstanswearsinnewgovernment,witholdfaces,RFE/RL,28Dec. 2011.

New CrisisGroupAsiaBriefingN130,South Korea: The Shifting Sands of Security Policy,1Dec.2011.AlthoughNorthKoreahasofferedunconditionaldialoguesinceJanuary,SouthKoreaismaintainingatoughpolicyline towardstheNorthasSeoulapproachesayearofelectoralcampaignpolitics. Theriskofconflictremainsserious,particularlyintheareaneartheNorthern LimitLine(NLL),themilitarydemarcationintheYellowSea.

South Asia
Afghanistan 80killed,over100injuredinKabul,4killedin

Tajikistan Russianambassadorsaidrelationsbetweencountries

unaffectedbyNovdisputeinvolvingTajikistansjailingof2Russian pilots.Regionalcourtconvicted53peopleoverroleinSept2010 suicidebombinginnortherncityKhujand.

RussianenvoysaysrelationswithTajikistanfriendly,RFE/RL,23Dec. 2011.

Turkmenistan Govtpressservice21Decreported7candidatesto

runforpresidencyagainstPresidentBerdymukhammedovinFeb elections;allbelongtorulingDemocraticPartyofTurkmenistan, countrysonlypartychairedbyPresident.

MorecandidatesnominatedinTurkmenpresidentialrace,RFE/RL,21 Dec.2011.

Mazar-i-Sharifin6DecbombattackscoincidingwithShiaholy dayAshura;PakistaniSunnimilitantsLashkar-e-Jhangviclaimed responsibility.5DecBonnconferenceonAfghanistansettlement overshadowedbyPakistanboycott;over90statesandinternational organisationssigned33-pointstatementcallingforenduring internationalsupportbeyond2014.Insurgentattackscontinued: 19killed7Dec,6killed13DecbyroadsidebombsinHelmand;at least20killed25DecbysuicidebombinTaloq;10policekilled29 Decbyroadsidebomb,Helmand.HighPeaceCouncilsaidgovt willacceptTalibanliaisonofficeinQatar,butnoforeigninvolvementwithoutconsent.NATO19Decsaidnightkill-and-capture raidswillcontinuedespiterepeatedprotestsbyKarzai.SeniorU.S. commander20DecsaidU.S.forcescouldremainbeyond2014 withdrawaldate.
AfghanPresidentHamidKarzaiblamesPakistanforKabulattack,AFP,8 Dec.2011.

Bangladesh 2killedinDhakaandSylhet18Decwhenpolicedis-

Uzbekistan Senate4Decadoptedbilltochangeofficetermfor

presidentsbackto5yearsfromcurrent7years,inmoveseenby someasattemptbyPresidentKarimovtoseek2moretermsin office.HumanRightsWatch13Deccriticisedcountrysrights record,accusedWesterngovtsofturningblindeyetoabuses.

ExpertsinUzbekistancorroboratefindingsofHRWreport,Uznews.net, 15Dec.2011.

persedhundredsofoppositionBangladeshNationalistParty(BNP) activists.8injuredinDhaka4DecaspoliceforciblydispersedBNP activistsparticipatingingeneralstrike.BorderGuardBangladesh 12Decprotestedkilling,captureandabductionofcitizensby IndianBorderSecurityForce(BSF);govt19Decprotested17-18 Deckillingof4nationalsbyBSF.Authorities15Decannounced inquiryintorecentspateofkillingsanddisappearances;rights groupOdhikarsaidmostvictimsoppositionpoliticalactivists.

Bangladeshinquiryintokillingsanddisappearances,BBC,15Dec. 2011.

Kashmir Suspectedrebels12DecfiredonLawMinisterAli

MohammedSagarinSrinagar,killedpoliceman.Govt17Dec bannedpublicassemblyinBaramulla,NKashmir.Army15Dec
5

saidwithdrawalofU.S.troopsfromAfghanistanposessecurity threat;19Decsaidatleast100guerrillaswaitingtoinfiltrate KashmirValleyacrossLineofControl.Indianarmy23Decsaid Pakistanforcesviolatedceasefire5,14and23Dec,claimedarmy firedonIndianpatrol,posts.Suspectedguerrillas24Deckilled rulingNationalConferenceactivistinSrinagar.

BoldattackonKashmirministerleavesguarddead,AP,12Dec.2011.

Nepal OppositionNepaliCongressParty(NC)1Decrejected

requestbyPMBhattaraitoallowadditional2,500formerMaoist fighterstointegrateintoarmy.9easterndistrictsclosedbystrikes mid-Decaslocalcouncil,ethnicgroupsdemandedmorerights, representationinconstitution.16protestorsdetainedinKathmandu19Decduringsecondnationalstrikeoverprisondeathof NCyouthleader.FMBarshamanPun11Decsaidnewconstitution willbepromulgatedwithin6monthsfollowing29Novextension ofConstituentAssembly.

NepalleadersdisputeoverMaoistsarmyintegration,BBC,1Dec.2011.

NationalAlliance(TNA)19Decrejectedreport,calledforinternationalwarcrimesinquiry.U.S.expressedconcernLLRCreport incomplete,calledforroadmaptoimplementrecommendations, fillingaps.TNA-govttalksstalledduetodisagreementoverprovincialpowers,TNAsnon-participationinparliamentaryselect committee.Budgetpassed18Dec,includedspendingincreasefor defenceministry.Ex-armychiefSarathFonseka16Declostappeal against30-monthcorruptionsentence;PresidentRajapaksa20 Decsaidhewouldconsiderformalpardonrequest.Govt15Dec announceddecisiontoimplementwatered-down5-yearNational HumanRightsActionPlan.UnitedNationalParty(UNP)leader RanilWickremasinghere-electedinrareleadershipvote;deep divisionsinpartyremain.
NewtestofIndiasglobalinfluence,Global Post,19Dec.2011. CrisisGroupStatementontheReportofSriLankasLessonsLearntand ReconciliationCommission,22Dec.2011.

New CrisisGroupAsiaBriefingN131,Nepals Peace Process: The Endgame Nears,13Dec.2011.WiththefutureoftheMaoistcombatantsfinally settled,Nepalspeaceprocesshasgainedmomentumafteralongstalemate, butchallengesremain,particularlythedesignofanewfederalstateand evolvingcoalitionandfactionaldynamicsoftheparties. Pakistan TensionsbetweenPakistanPeoplesPartygovtandmili-

New CrisisGroupAsiaReportN217,Sri Lanka: Womens Insecurity in the North and East,20Dec.2011.WomeninSriLankaspredominantly Tamil-speakingnorthandeastarefacingadesperatelackofsecurityinthe aftermathofthelongcivilwar.

South East Asia

Indonesia SituationinPapuacontinuedtodeteriorateasintensi-

taryleadershipescalatedasSupremeCourtlateDecbeganhearings onMay2011memotoU.S.ChairmanJointChiefsofStaffseeking U.S.helptopreventmilitarycoup;govtdeniesallegationsmemo authorisedbyformerU.S.ambassadorHussainHaqqani,rejects SupremeCourtjurisdiction.ArmyChiefGeneralKayaniandISI chiefGeneralPashainsistonSupremeCourtprobe,provoking coupfears.TensionswithNATOcontinuedasgovtboycotted 5DecBonnconferenceonAfghanistansettlementinprotestat NovNATOairstrike;tensofthousands18Decdemonstratedin LahoreagainstNATO.Director-GeneralofMilitaryOperations8 Decsaidairstrikepre-plannedbutgovt19Decrestoredliaison officersatbordercoordinationcentres,markingsomeprogress. U.S.11DecvacatedShamsiairbase,Balochistan;24Decsaiddrone strikessuspended6weeks.PMGilani11Decsaidblockageof NATOconvoys,initiatedafterNATOairstrike,maycontinuefor weeks;govt14Decsaiditwouldseektorenegotiateagreements concerningsuppliesandlogisticssupporttoNATObutISIchief GeneralPashareportedlymetU.S.officialsinDohainattemptto easetensions.InteriorMinisterRehmanMakik12Decdenied reportsgovtholdingpeacetalkswithTalibanafterkeymilitant leadersaidpeaceagreementclose.Gunmen8DeckilledHuman RightsCommissioncoordinatorZarteefKhanAfridi,Khyber district.Talibanattacksonschools,militarycampscontinued throughoutmonth.
PakistanIslamistsrallyinsupportofarmy,AlJazeera,18Dec.2011.

fiedcounterinsurgencyoperationsagainstlocalFreePapuaMovement(OPM)leaderJohnYogiinPaniai13-15Decleft17dead, 75homesdestroyed,thousandsdisplaced.Groupwithbowsand arrows1DecattackedpolicemaninJayapura,laterdiedofinjuries. OPMsuspectedin2DecPuncakJayaattackwhichleft2police dead;OPMalsosuspectedinrecentshootingsalongFreeportroad. Freeport14Decagreedto39%salaryincreaseformineworkers, ending3-monthstrike.GrenadeattackinAceh1Decastensions remainedhighaheadofFebelections.Communaltensionsremain highinAmbon,withclashesbetweenMuslimsandChristians13 Dec,ChristiankilledbyMuslimmob15Dec.Atleast2reported killed24Decaspoliceclashedwithprotestorsdemonstrating againstplannedmineinSumbawa,WestNusaTenggara.
Acehsnowinelection,InsideIndonesia,11Dec.2011. Forlatestreport,seeCrisisGroupAsiaBriefingN128,Indonesia: Trouble Again in Ambon,4Oct.2011.

Myanmar/Burma MilestonevisitbyU.S.SecStateClinton30

New CrisisGroupAsiaReportN216,Islamic Parties in Pakistan,12Dec. 2011.Religiousintolerance,sectarianviolenceandradicalIslamicparties threatentounderminethedemocraticreformsonwhichPakistansstability depends. SriLanka LessonsLearntandReconciliationCommission(LLRC)

reportpresentedtoparliament16Dec,saidgovtforcesdidnot targetciviliansbutsomeisolatedincidentswarrantinvestigation, LTTEroutinelyviolatedinternationalhumanitarianlaw.Tamil

6

Nov-2DecsignaledU.S.readytobeginprocessofnormalising relations;Clintonannouncedmodestpolicychangesincluding invitingFMtoWashington,U.S.supportformultilateralassistance.ThaiPMYingluck20DecofferedsupporttoAungSanSuu Kyi(ASSK)forupcomingby-electionsduringhistoricmeetingin Yangon.OtherdiplomaticvisitsincludedBelarusandBangladesh PMs,Japan,IndonesianandSingaporeFMs.PresidentTheinSein 3Decsignedlawallowingpeacefuldemonstrations.Govtalso announcedmagazinescoveringeconomic,businessaffairsno longerneedtobesubmittedforcensorapproval.PoliticalactivistsheldeventatYangonmonasterymarking20thanniversaryof ASSKsNobelPeacePrize.Govt2Decsignedceasefireagreement withShanStateArmy(South).TheinSein10Decorderedmilitary haltoffensiveactions,troopmovementsinKachinState,granted UNhumanitarianaccesstoconflictareasinKachin.Hostilities reportedinnorthernShanstatebetweenarmyandKachinIndependenceArmy.FollowingvisittoKachinMyanmarNational

HumanRightsCommissionmaderecommendationsincluding increasedassistancetoIDPs.Authorities16DecjailedKarenrebel leaderMahnNyeinMaungfor17yearsforunlawfulassociation.

BurmaordersendtofightingagainstKachinrebels,BBC,12Dec.2011. CrisisGroupAsiaReportN214,Myanmar: A New Peace Initiative,30Nov. 2011.

Timor-Leste FightingbetweenmembersofPSHTandotherrival

martialartsgroupsinComoroareaofDili19Deckilled1,injured 3,furtherraisingconcernsofpotentialforviolencein2012elections.Govtannounced20policeunderinvestigationforalleged roleinfighting.

ChefedaaldeiadeKomoropedereforodasegurana,JournalDigital, 21Dec.2011. Forlatestreport,seeCrisisGroupAsiaBriefingN129,Timor-Lestes Veterans: An Unfinished Struggle?,18Nov.2011.

PapuaNewGuinea ConstitutionalcrisisafterSupremeCourt

12DecdeclaredPMONeillillegitimate,ruledMichaelSomare, replacedasPMinAugwhileinSingaporeformedicaltreatment, stillinoffice.Crisisresolvedaftergovernorgeneralgavesupport toONeill.

PapuaNewGuineasimpasseseemstoend,New York Times,20Dec. 2011.

Europe
Balkans
Bosnia Leadersof6mainparties28Decannouncedagreement

Philippines Govt-MoroIslamicLiberationFront(MILF)peace

processappearedbackontrackwith5-7DectalksresultinginstatementthatMalaysian-ledInternationalMonitoringTeam(IMT) mandatewouldberenewedfor2012;talkstoresumeearlyJan. MILFandMoroNationalLiberationFront(MNLF)representatives6-7DecmetinSaudiArabiaunderOrganisationofIslamic Conferenceauspicestoimprovecoordination.IMTinvestigation intoOctclashesbetweengovttroopsandMILFstalledbyZamboangaSibugaygovernorearlyDecrefusingIMTaccesstositeof clashesinPayao.Australiankidnapped5DecinIpil,Zamboanga Sibugay.Despitedeadlyclashes4and12Dec,govtandNewPeoplesArmy(NPA)15Decannouncedholidaytruceuntil2Jan.5 dead,2woundedin16DecNPAambush.Govt14Declaunched shipnewlyacquiredfromU.S.topatroldisputedSpratlyislands.

Draftdeal,MILFtold,Manila Bulletin,6Dec.2011. Forlatestreport,seeCrisisGroupAsiaReportN213,The Philippines: Indigenous Rights and the MILF Peace Process,22Nov.2011.

toformstategovt,ending14-monthpoliticaldeadlockfollowing Oct2010elections,andresultinginadoptionofbudgetdaysahead of1Jandeadlinewhichwouldhaveseenstateinstitutionsshut down,intensifiedpoliticalcrisis.Newgovttocomprise4Bosniak ministers,3Serbs,3Croats.Leadersalsoreportedagreementon lawsrequiredforprogressonEUmembership.

BosniasDecembersurprise,Economist,30Dec.2011.

New CrisisGroupEuropeBriefingN66,Brc Unsupervised,8Dec.2011. ko Theinternationalcommunityshouldstartaprocesstocloseitssupervisionof BosniasBrc koDistrictatitsmeetingnextweekanddevelopanewstrategy tobetterhelpdomesticinstitutionsaddressgovernancechallengesand corruption,whileretainingtheabilitytosanctionanyattemptstoundermine security. Kosovo At8throundofEU-brokeredtalksKosovoandSerbia2

Thailand ThaiandCambodianmilitaryauthorities21Decheld

8thmeetingofThai-CambodianGeneralBorderCommitteein PhnomPenh,agreedtocomplywithICJsJulyordertowithdraw troopsfromprovisionaldemilitarisedzonenearPreahVihear templeundersupervisionofIndonesianobservers;stillnodate fordeploymentofobservers.Severecriticismfromcivilsociety groups,internationalcommunityfollowingharshsentencesfor 3peopleconvictedoflesemajeste;OHCHRurgedauthoritiesto amendlaws.Govt16DecreturnedoustedPMThaksinspassport, promptingoppositiontoseekimpeachmentofPMandFM.Deputy PMreiteratedgovttopushforwardamnestylawforThaksin.FugitiveRedShirtleaderArismanPongruengrongreturnedtoThailand 6Dectofaceterrorismcharges.InBangkokpolicedefused1bomb 6Dec,6bombs16Dec,arrested1suspect.SupremeCourt2Dec sentencedDa-ohThanam,ex-leaderofsouthernseparatistgroup PULO,3otherPULOmemberstolifeimprisonment.Leaderof smallPrachathampartyshotdead15DecinNarathiwat.
Templetroopstobewithdrawn,Bangkok Post,22Dec.2011.

New CrisisGroupAsiaReportN215,Waging Peace: ASEAN and the ThaiCambodian Border Conflict,6Dec.2011.Theviolentborderclashesbetween ThailandandCambodiaearlierthisyearhavechallengedtheAssociation ofSouthEastAsianNations(ASEAN)toturnitsrhetoricintoaction,butto achievepeaceandsecuritymorerobustdiplomacyisrequiredtoendastill unresolvedconflict.

DecreachedagreementonIntegratedBorderManagement(IBM); BelgradelaterdenieddealmeantSerbiandefactorecognitionof Kosovo.FollowingIBMagreementandlateNovcallbySerbian presidentTadictoremovebarricades,SerbsatJagnjenicaand Jarinjebordercrossings5Decagreedtoremovebarricadesin returnforKFORremovingvehiclesblockingroads;however,still nofreedomofmovementforEULEX,andfreshbarricadeserected priortoEuropeanCouncils9DecdelayofdecisiononSerbiasEU candidacy(seeSerbia).Russianaidconvoy16Decdeliveredgoods toKosovoSerbsafterbeingheldupatborderforseveraldaysover disagreementwithEUonhowaiddelivered.KosovoSerbs14Dec offeredtonegotiatepeaceinitiativewithinternationalpeacekeepingofficials.Serbia20Decarrested2KosovoSerbbrothers,one ofwhomidentifiedbyKFORascoordinatorofrecentviolenceat border,onsuspicionofinvolvementinarmsproduction.Inline withagreementsreachedearlierinyear,Serbia20Decstartedto handovertoKosovocopiesofcivilregistrybooksseizedin1999, 26Decimplementedfreedomofmovementagreementallowing KosovocitizenstoenterwithIDcards,drivevehicleswithKosovo platesanddriverslicences.Growingtensionsbetweengovtand oppositiononissuesincludingtraderelationswithSerbia,ongoing dialogue.EUappointedoutgoingSlovenianFMSamuelZbogar headofnewEUofficeinPristina.
Kosovo,SerbiaagreementonIBMdrawsdoubts,SE Times,5Dec.2011.

Macedonia ICJ5DecfoundGreeceguiltyofbreachingUN1995

dealwithMacedoniabyblockingitsNATOmembershipbidin 2008;didnotorderGreecetostopblockingMacedoniafromjoininginternationalorganisationsinfuture.EuropeanCouncil9Dec againdeclinedtogivestartdateforaccessiontalkswithMacedonia.

Callitwhatyouwant,Economist,10Dec.2011.

Georgia Followingdisputedlate-Novdefactopresidential

Serbia EuropeanCouncil9Decdecidedtodelaydecisionon

grantingSerbiacandidatestatusuntilMarch;CouncilPresident VanRompuysaidSerbianeedstoimproverelationswithKosovo. PresidentTadicclaimedBrusselshadaskedSerbiatorecognise Kosovoindependenceinreturnforcandidacystatus;deniedbyEU.

EUcandidacydelaycausesdeepdivisionsinSerbia,SE Times,17Dec. 2011.

Caucasus
Armenia RulingHHKparty1DecnamedSamvelNikoyancandi-

dateforparliamentspeaker;oppositionHAKcriticisedNikoyans roleinparliamentcommissioninto2008post-electionviolence, whichfounduseofforceagainstprotestersjustified.

Armenianoppositionslamschoiceofnewparliamentspeaker,RFE/RL, 6Dec.2011.

electioninbreakawayrepublicSouthOssetia(SO),supporters ofdisqualifiedapparentvictorAllaDzhioyevacontinuedto protest,4Decannouncedtheywouldstageaninaugurationfor Dzhioyeva.IncumbentpresidentKokoitystermofficiallyended 7Dec.DzhioyevaandKokoity9DecreachedRussian-brokered compromisedeal:Dzhioyevaagreedtoacknowledgelegality ofSupremeCourtrulingandendprotests;Kokoityagreedto stepdown,fire3officials.Uncertaintycontinuedhoweverafter Dzhioyeva10DecallegedKokoityviolatedagreementwithnew appointments,andparliamentfailedtoendorseagreement.During 18throundofGenevatalks,mediatorsproposedRussiacommit torefrainfromuseofforce,implement2008ceasefireagreements; instead,AbkhaziaandSO,backedbyRussia,proposedremovalof issueofinternationalsecurityarrangementsfromdiscussions. BillionairebusinessmanBidzinaIvanishvili11Declaunchednew publicmovementGeorgianDreamaheadof2012parliamentary elections;severalthousandattendedlaunch.Tbilisicourt27Dec upheldOctpresidentialrulingstrippingIvanishviliofGeorgian citizenship.Parliament27Decpassednewelectioncode,28Dec passedcontroversialamendmentsrestrictingpartyfunding.
RichestGeorgianfindswealthisnopoliticalprotection,Washington Times,1Jan.2012.

Nagorno-Karabakh(Azerbaijan) OSCEmeetinginVilnius6-7Dec

Azerbaijan OSCEexpressedconcernsoveramendmentstolawon

politicalparties,includingregistrationprocedure,requirements forstatefunding,disclosureoffundingsources.
DoesRasulGuliyevfancyhimselfasAzerbaijansBidzinaIvanishvili?, RFE/RL,8Dec.2011.

resultedinfewconcretesteps.Amidlowexpectations,Azerbaijani andArmenianpresidentsscheduledtomeetJanfor1sttimesince June.Russiareportedlydelivered2attackhelicopterstoAzerbaijan, amidcontinuedreportsofAzerbaijaniarmsbuild-up.

MedvedevsaysKarabakhpeacestillpossible,RFE/RL,27Dec.2011.

NorthCaucasus(Russia) WidespreadfraudreportedinNorth

Caucasusrepublicsduring4DecRussianparliamentaryelections: rulingUnitedRussiapartygained99.5%ofvoteinChechnya (99.45%turnout),91.4%ofDagestanvote,91%inIngushetia, 89.9%inKarachaevo-Cherkessia,81.9%inKabardino-Balkaria (KBR).DagestanbranchofRussianCommunistPartystagedsmall protests6and21Decclaimingrigging.CaucasianKnotwebsite reported1,248victimsofarmedconflictinNCin2011,including 714killed,536injured;Dagestanmostviolent(383killed,322 injured),thenChechnya,KBR.Continuinginsurgentviolence acrossregion.ProminentDagestanjournalistKhadzhimurad Kamalov,founderofChernoviknewspaperandhighlycriticalof policeabuses,shotdead15Decbyunidentifiedgunmanoutside Makhachkalaoffice;folkhealerandwifekilledinKhasavyurt district29Dec;seniorpoliceinvestigatorkilledbyinsurgentsin Kaspiiskport14Dec;3suspectedmilitantskilledinKhasavyurt district12Dec;1policemankilled,4peopleinjuredinKizlyar district8Dec.3suspectedmilitantskilledinMalokarachaevsky, Karachaevo-Cherkessia19Dec;4suspectedmilitantskilledin Karachaydistrict7Dec.InKBRpoliceofficerkilledinNalchik 17Dec;InteriorMinistryinvestigatorshotdeadinBaksandistrict 12Dec;3residentsofElbrusdistrictfoundshotdeadincarmid Dec;Russiansoldiersshotdead4suspectedmilitants14Dec.In Ingushetia,deputyhealthministerinjuredingunattackinNazran 9Dec;3armyengineersinjuredbyroadsidebomb14Dec.
RussianparliamentaryelectionresultsintheNorthCaucasus questioned,EDM,7Dec.2011.

Eastern Europe
Belarus Dozensarrested19Decduringbannedvigilmarking

anniversaryofDec2010post-electionprotests.Deputyinterior ministerarrestedoverroleincrackdownonDec2010protests,for possibleabuseofoffice.EU16Decimposedsanctionson2officials involvedintrialofrightsactivistAlesByalyatski.

Belarusbrutalcrackdownthe19Decemberanniversary,EU Observer,19Dec.2011.

Moldova SecondroundvoteinbreakawayrepublicTransdniestria

25DecsawformerparliamentspeakerYevgeniShevchukwin 74%ofvotes,aheadofRussian-backedcandidate.IncumbentIgor Smimov,presidentfor20years,placedthirdin11Decfirstround. Shevchukpledgedimprovedfreedomofmovementacrossborder ofseparatistregionwithrestofMoldova.InChisinauparliament 16Decagainfailedtoelectpresident.

Transdniestersnewleaderseeksbettertieswithneighbours,RFE/RL, 27Dec.2011.

Ukraine AtEU-Ukrainesummit20DecEuropeanCouncil

presidentVanRompuyreportednegotiationswithUkraineon associationagreementcompleted,butsigningdependsonpolitical developments,followingOctjailingofformerPMTymoshenko forabuseofoffice.Appealscourt23DecupheldTymoshenkos guiltyverdictandsentence.

WhichwaywillUkraineturn?,Economist,19Dec.2011.

Western Europe/Mediterranean
Cyprus TurkishCypriotandGreekCypriotleadersheldweekly

meetingsincontextofreunificationnegotiations,includingon 5Dec(externalrelationsandproperty),12Dec(property),and 19Dec(EUmatters).Following12Decmeeting,UNSGsspecial adviserDownerexpressedfrustrationoverlackofprogress,told GreekKathimerini2leadersremainonoppositesidesaheadof5th trilateralsummitwithBaninNewYork22Jan.Noagreementsyet announcedon6chaptersunderdiscussion.UNSC14Decextended UNFICYPmandateuntilJuly2012,calledon2leaderstoincrease momentumofnegotiations,resolvekeyoutstandingissuesbefore Banmeeting.LateNovpopulationcensusinTurkishCypriotnorth founddefactopopulationhadonlygoneup30,000since2006to 295,000.GreekCypriottradeministerlateDecsaidconsidering planstoexportnaturalgasfoundsouthofislandviaTurkey,but onlypossiblewhensolutionfoundtoCyprusproblem.
Cyprusgasfindboostscountrysenergyhopes,Reuters,28Dec.2011.

DecmetEcuadorianPresidentCorreainQuito(seeEcuador). Controversialjudicialreformbilladvanced14DecwithCongress approvalin4thof8debates.UN,rightsgroupsexpressedconcern overexpansionofmilitarycourtsjurisdiction;reformalsoopposed byhighcourts,attorneygeneralandpublicprosecutorfearing concentrationofpowerwithinlegislative,executivebranches. JusticeMinister8Decsaidstatewouldprosecutefalsevictims of1997Mapiripnmassacrewhoallegedlyfraudulentlyclaimed reparationmoney;Inter-AmericanCourtofHumanRightsto reconsideritsrulingoncase.21-23Decsurrenderof284fighters fromAnti-terroristPopularRevolutionaryArmyofColombia (ERPAC)spurredcontroversyafteronly19members,including leaderCaracho,initiallydetained;judgeslaterissuedremaining arrestwarrants.Episoderaisedquestionsovergovtrole,lackof legalnorms,powervacuumingroupsEasternPlainsstrongholds, fateofestimatedupto900fighterswhodidnotsurrender.
CommentbySilkePfeifferandHugoEduardoRamrez,MsAlldela Diplomacia:RetosenlaFronteraColombo-Venezolana,Razonpublica. com,4Dec.2011. ColombiasFARCrebelsannouncesplanstorelease6hostages,AP,27 Dec.2011.

Turkey Wavesofarrestsunderanti-terrorlawsforallegedlinksto

PKKincludingpro-KurdishPeaceandDemocracyParty(BDP) members,journalists,lawyers,activistsandacademics;80arrested 7-18Dec;and38people,mainlypro-Kurdishjournalistsincluding AFPphotographer,detained20Decin7differentcities.Violence inSEcontinued.ScoresofPKKmilitantskilledbysecurityforces includingaround50militantskilled21-22DecinHakkari,Sirnak, Diyarbakirprovinces.Turkishmilitaryairstrikekilled35Turkish KurdsmugglersonIraqiborder28Dec,mistakingthemforPKK, triggeringnationwideoutrage.1Turkishsoldierkilled22Decin landmineblastinHakkari.EUCouncilreport9Deccalledon Turkeytoimprovefreedomofexpression,especiallyonfreedom ofmedia.Frenchnationalassembly22Decpassedbillwhich,if passedbySenate,willcriminalizedenialofgenocideincluding1915 masskillingofArmeniansbyOttomanTurks;Ankarawithdrew ambassador,cancelledeconomic,politicalandmilitarycooperation.FMDavutolu9DecwarnedSyriaitwouldacttoprotect itselfifSyriangovtcrackdownonprotestersthreatenedregional securityandunleashedtideofrefugees.OppositionSyrianNational Council14DecopenedHQinIstanbul.
TurkeyacknowledgeskillingciviliansinIraqstrike,Reuters,29Dec. 2011.

Ecuador PresidentCorrea19DecmetColombianPresident

SantosinfirstvisitbyColombianpresidentsince2008airstrike onFARCcampinEcuador;agreedtosetup3rdbordercrossing point,reinforcefightagainstillegalmining.

SantosyCorreanormalizanrelacinbilateral,Infolatam,20Dec.2011.

Guatemala OutgoingPresidentColom15Decapologisedto

relativesofvictimsof1982massacreinDosErres.Guatemala, Colombia,Hondurasairforcesconductedexerciseaimedatcontrollingdrugtrafficking.
GuatemalanPresidentColomapologisesfor1982massacre,BBC,15 Dec.2011.

Haiti PresidentMartelly6Decpublishedcontroversialorder

Latin America/Caribbean
Bolivia FollowingSept-Octindigenousprotest,govt4Dec

namingcommissiontoreconstitutearmy,expectedtopresent planforreconstitutionwithin40days.Martelly30Decdismissed 9-personelectoralcounciltomakewayforplannedlegislative, localelections.PoliceofficerkilledearlyDecbyunidentified assailants,bringingtotalnumberkilledin2011to30.Criticism ofMINUSTAHcontinuedasNationalNetworkforDefenceof HumanRightsaccusedBrazilianpatrolofbeating3meninCit Soleil.UNOHCHR27Decurgedauthoritiestoinvestigate,prosecutepolicesuspectedofunlawfulkillingsandtortureafter2UN reportsraisedconcernsthatillegaluseofforcebypolicemayhave ledto9deathssinceOct2010.CarofrightsactivistKettlyJulien attackedbyunidentifiedassailants27Dec.
Martellysignsorderappointingarmycommission,DefendHaiti,6Dec. 2011.

approvedlawprohibitinghighwayconstructionthroughindigenousterritoryinTIPNISnationalpark;cocagrowersandsome indigenousgroupsorganisedpro-highwaydemonstrations9,17 Dec.ErnestoSuarezSattori,oppositionGovernorofBeni,suspended16Deconchargesofcorruption;SantaCruzGovernor denouncedsystematicannihilationofopposition.

Acuerdosobreeltipnislimitalaintangibilidad,La Razon,5Dec.2011.

Mexico Securityforces12Deckilled11gunmennearU.S.border,

Colombia WidespreadprotestsagainstFARC6DecfollowingNov

killingof4hostages;FARC27Decpledgedtofree6of11policeand militarystillheldhostage.31Decbombattackonpolicestation inSouthkilled2;FARCbelievedresponsible.PresidentSantos19

samedaycapturedfounderofLosZetasdrugcartelLucioHernandezandthird-in-commandinCordoba,20Decfound10bodies believedrelatedtodrugviolenceinDurangostate.Womensrights activistNormaAndradeshot,injuredoutsidehomeinCiudad Juarez3Dec.EntireVeracruzpoliceforcedisbanded21Decin efforttorootoutcorruption;militarytookoverpolicingduties. InstitutionalRevolutionaryParty(PRI)headHumbertoMoreira forcedtostepdown2Decoverfinancialscandal;EnriquePea

NietonamedPRIcandidateforJulypresidentialelection.InternationalNGOnamedMexicomostdangerouscountryforjournalists for2ndconsecutiveyear.
Mexicosdrugswar:lessonsandchallenges,BBC,1Jan.2012.

killed18DecinclashesbetweenFatahmembersandsuspected IslamistextremistsinAinel-Hilwehrefugeecampinsouth.
5FrenchpeacekeeperswoundedinLebanonbombing,AP,9Dec.2011.

Peru Followingbitterprotestsoverlargeminingprojectin

Syria UNreportedover5,000peoplekilledin9-monthcrackdown

northernCajamarcaregion,PresidentHumala4Decdeclared 60-daystateofemergency,liftedafterCajamarcagovernor13 Decannouncedendofminingstrike.Dialoguebetweencentral andregionalgovtsreinstated19Dec.ComradeArtemio,regional leaderofweakenedShiningPathguerillas,admittedin6Dec pressinterviewthatarmedstrugglenolongerpossible,called forpoliticalsolution.Govtreportedover230socialconflictsin country,mostlyovernaturalresources,mining.

PerusShiningPathdefeated,rebelleaderadmits,BBC,7Dec.2011.

Venezuela Representativesfrom33countriesmetinCaracas2-3

DecforlaunchofCommunityofLatinAmericanandCaribbean States(CELAC);U.S.andCanadaexcluded.U.S.PresidentObama inVenezuelandailyEl Universal19DeccriticisedVenezuelasrights record,tiestoIranandCuba;Chavezrespondedbycallinghim clown.LocalNGOreported2011murderrate53per100,000.

HugoChvezinauguraprimeracumbredelCELAC,BBC,2Dec.2011.

onanti-regimeprotests;regimesaidover2,000securityforcememberskilled.Hundredsofthousandscontinuedtoprotestagainst PresidentAssadasviolenceintensified.Increasingdefectionsto FreeSyrianArmyandattacksonsecurityforces.Generalstrike startedearlymonthalongwithnumerousformsofcivildisobedience.EU2Decimposedsanctionson3Syrianoilfirms,including state-ownedSytrol.Regime12DecsignedArabLeague(AL)peace plan,agreeingtoletinmonitors,pulltroopsfromprotest-hittowns, freepoliticalprisonersandstarttalkingtoopposition.UNGA19 DeccondemnedSyriaforcrackdownandrightsabuses;UNSC continuedtodebateresolution.Regimeescalatedcrackdownahead ofarrivalofArabLeagueobservers,withover200peoplekilled 19-20Dec.AdvanceteamofALmonitorsarrived22Dec,nearly 100byend-Dec;over150peoplereportedkilledsincemonitors missionbegan.Twincarbombattack23Deconsecuritybuildings inDamascuskilled44,injuredover150;officialsblamedal-Qaeda, oppositionfiguresaccusedgovtofstagingattack.Govt28Dec said755prisonersreleasedincompliancewithArabLeagueplan.
CommentbyPeterHarling,SauverlesSyriensnepassepasncessairementparuneintervention,Le Figaro,13Dec.2011.

Middle East/North Africa

Eastern Mediterranean
Israel/OccupiedPalestinianTerritories Duringseriesofmeetings

TwinsuicidebombsshakeSyriancapital,kill44,AP,23Dec.2011. Forlatestreport,seeCrisisGroupMiddleEastBriefingN31,Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syrias Dynamics,24Nov.2011.

Gulf
Bahrain Securityforces23DecattackedHQofmainShiiteoppo-

18-22DecinCairoonPalestinianreconciliation,Hamasleader MeshalandPAPresidentAbbasannouncedplansforHamasand IslamicJihadtojoinPLO;forformationofunitygovt26-31Jan; andforPalestinianlegislative,presidential,PLOelectionsin2012. IsraeliPMNetanyahu25DecsaidIsraelwillnotnegotiatewithPA ifHamasjoinsPalestiniangovt.Israel18Deccompletedsecond andfinalphaseofmid-OctGiladShalitprisonerexchangedeal, releasingremaining550of1,027Palestiniansecurityprisoners.3 daysofextremistJewishviolence12-14Decincludingattackon armybaseinWestBankandtorchingofmosques.EUmembersof UNSC22DeccondemnedIsraelisettlementbuildingandgrowing settlerviolence;Israelaccusedthemofinterferinginitsdomestic affairs.SporadicviolenceacrossGazaborderincluding4Palestinianskilled8-9DecafterbarrageofrocketsfiredintoIsrael,chief ofal-Qaeda-linkedArmyofIslamkilled30Dec.
Rivalswhomayneedeachother,Economist,31Dec.2011.

sitionpartyAl-WefaqinManamaaftergroupchallengednew govtbanonitsweeklyprotests.Clashesbetweensecurityforces anddemonstrators15-18DecnearManama;mandied17Dec reportedlyfromteargasinhalation.Policealsobrokeupprotests 7,9,31DecinManamawithteargasandrubberbullets.Govt8 Decannouncedprosecutorswillinvestigateallegationsofabuse bysecurityforcesthroughout10-monthuprising;UNHCHRPillay21DecsaidBahrainstillfailingtoprosecutesecurityforces. Authorities24Decsaidfreespeechchargeswillbedroppedagainst 343people.Smallexplosion4DecnearUKembassy.

CommentbyJoostHiltermannandKellyMcEvers,Barricadedin Bahrain,New York Review of Books,27Dec.2011. Bahrainforcesattackoppositionheadquarters,AlJazeera,23Dec. 2011.

Iran GovtrejectedU.S.PresidentObamasrequest12Decfor

Lebanon 5FrenchUNpeacekeepers,1civilianinjured9Decby

roadsidebombnearsouthernportcityTyre;SyriaandHizbollah deniedFrenchaccusationsofinvolvement.Hizbollah9Decpublicisednamesof10supposedCIAofficerswhoworkedinLebanon. U.S.prosecutors15DecfiledcivilsuitagainstLebaneseandU.S. businessesallegedtohavelaunderedmoneyforHizbollah.3people killed28DecbySyrianarmynearunofficialbordercrossingat Raydaniinnorth.1Lebanesewomanwounded11Decbyrocket firedatIsraelfromsouthernvillagewhichfellshortofborder.1

returnofcapturedsurveillancedrone.Tehranschiefprosecutor13 Decsaid15peopleindictedforspyingforU.S.,Israel.Intelligence ministerMoslehi12DecvisitedRiyadhtoimprovestrainedrelationsfollowingallegedIranianplottokillSaudiambassadorto U.S..Navy24Decbegan10-dayexerciseinStraitofHormuz;27 DecthreatenedtocloseStraitifWestimposedfurtheroilsanctions.U.S.31DecissuednewsanctionsagainstCentralBankand financialsector.Rialfelltolowestevervalueagainstdollardueto inflation,sanctions.

Asfurthersanctionsloom,plungeincurrencysvalueunsettlesIran, New York Times,20Dec.2011.

10

Iraq Politicalsituationdeterioratedsharplyfollowing18Dec

officialwithdrawaloflastU.S.combattroops,thoughfewhundred militarytrainersremainunderprivatecontracts.Authorities19 DecissuedarrestwarrantforVPTariqAl-Hashimi,accusinghim ofinvolvementinactsofterrorism,specificallyassassinations; HashimiandotherseniorSunnileadersfledtoKurdistanregion. InresponseIraqiyaAlliancebeganboycottofparliamentand govt.Maliki21Decthreatenedtoabandonpower-sharingagreement,warnedKurdstherewouldbeproblemsiftheyprotected Hashimi.DiyalasProvincialCouncil15Decvotedinfavourof formingfederalregion(4thprovincetodoso);armedprotesters occupiedmuchofprovincialcapitalBaquba.Waveofbombings 22Deckilledatleast72,injuredover200inBaghdad;al-Qaeda affiliateIslamicStateofIraq27Decclaimedresponsibility.UN, govt26DecagreedtorelocateseveralthousandIranianexilesfrom northeastCampAshraf;rocketstruckcamp25Dec,nocasualties.
CommentbyJoostHiltermann,EthnicInterestsCouldTrumpEconomic Sense,Financial Times,7Dec.2011. CommentbyJoostHiltermann,USTroopWithdrawalfromIraq, ConservativeMiddleEastCouncil,5Dec.2011. BlastsrockBaghdadaspoliticalcrisisinIraqdeepens,New York Times, 22Dec.2011.

atstoppingformermembersofbannedIslamicSalvationFront (FIS)fromsettinguppartyorparticipatinginpolitics.Security forces4Decreportedlykilledanal-QaedaintheIslamicMaghreb (AQIM)leaderduringcounter-terrorsweepinEl-Oued.AQIM9 DecdeniedinvolvementinOctkidnappingof3foreignaidworkers insouth.Trialbegan7Decof17accusedofplanningtoassassinate PMOuyahiaduringNovvisittoMSila.

Bouteflikadfendsesrformescritiquesparlopposition,AFP,16Dec. 2011.

Egypt Atleast17peoplekilled16-22Decinclashesbetweenpro-

Jordan Policeusedteargastobreakupclashes23Decbetween

testersandsecurityforcesinCairo;violenceeruptedaftermilitary forcesattemptedtodisperse3-week-oldsit-inofTahrirSquare demandingswiftertransfertocivilianrule.Severalthousand womenmarchedinCairo20Decoverabuseoffemaleprotestersbysecurityforces.Securityforces29DecraidedNGOoffices acrosscountryininvestigationintoforeignfunding;U.S.urged govttohaltharassment.Infirstroundof6-weekparliamentary electionMuslimBrotherhoodsFreedomandJusticeParty(FJP) wonaround37%ofvotesbutalmosthalfavailableseats;ultraconservativeSalafial-NourPartywonsome24%ofvotes;liberal EgyptBlocandWafdwon13%and7%.In2ndroundunofficial resultsshowFJPwithsome36%,al-Nour29%,Wafd10%;3rd roundscheduled3-4Jan,withrun-offs10-11Jan.
MassmarchbyCairowomeninprotestoverabusebysoldiers,New York Times,20Dec.2011.

govtloyalistsandMuslimBrotherhoodspoliticalwingIslamic ActionFront(IAF)innortherncityMafraq.IAFaccusedpolice offailingtoprotectthem;govtpromisedinvestigation.

HundredsprotestnearJordanPMsoffice,AlJazeera,24Dec.2011.

Libya Increasingviolentflare-upsbetweenarmedmilitias,amid

Yemen Vice-PresidentHadi7Decissueddecreepavingway

forunitygovtinpreparationfor21Febpresidentialelection; opposition-ledgovtformed10Decwithministriesdividedequally betweenPresidentSalehsGeneralPeoplesCongressPartyand opposition.IntensefightinginTaizearlymonth;truceagreed 4Dec.BothGeneralAliMohsenstroopsandpro-Salehforces 17DecbegantowithdrawfromSanaaaspartofGCC-brokered peacedeal.9protesterskilled24DecbySalehloyalistsastensof thousandsmarchedfromTaiztoSanaademandingSalehstand trialforkillingofdemonstratorsduringuprising;U.S.AmbassadorFeiersteindefendedgovt,saidmarchintendedtoprovoke violentresponse.Nationwidegovtworkerstrikesbegan28Dec overallegedcorruptionlinkedtooutgoingregime.Nearly200 reportedkilledinfightingbetweenShiiteHuthirebelsandSalafists innorthernSaadagovernorate.Dozenskilledasseriousfighting continuedinsouthernAbyangovernoratebetweensuspected al-Qaedaaffiliatesandsecurityforces.
YemensSalehvowstoleave,troopskill9protesters,Reuters,24Dec. 2011. Forlatestreport,seeCrisisGroupMiddleEastReportN114,Breaking Point? Yemens Southern Question,20Oct.2011.

majoranti-govtprotests,particularlyinEast,factionalmistrust betweenregions,anddeterioratingeconomy.Zintanimilitiamen controllingTripoliairport11Decattackedconvoyledbysenior Libyancommander;otherisolatedandsporadicgunbattlesacross country.DefenceministerJuwali19Decsaidmanyweeksneeded toresolvemilitiaissue,monthsforproperarmy;25Decannounced schemetointegratesome50,000ex-rebelsintoarmy,police, securityforces.GovtvowedtodisarmTripoliby31Dec;deadline formilitiastoleavecitycameandwent20Dec.Following26Dec conferenceofUnionofThwarinLibya,purportedtorepresent over70%ofex-rebels,thwardemandedformerrebelscomprise 40%ofNTC.Increasedpoliticalturbulence,withlawyersprotestin Tripoli7Deccallingformilitiastoleave,around30,000protesting inBenghazimidDecforgreatergovttransparency,representationofEastinNTC,andpurgeofQadhafi-eraofficials.ICCChief ProsecutorMoreno-Ocampo15DecsaidOctkillingofMuammar Qadhafimayhavebeenwarcrime.NTCchairAbd-al-Jalilsaid QadhafisonSaadi,grantedasyluminNiger,hadinfiltratedagents intogovt.HumanRightsWatchreportedSaifAl-IslamQadhafi deniedaccesstolawyer.UNSCliftedsanctionsonCentralBank. U.S.SecDefencePanettavisitedmidDec.
Libyasrebelswithoutacause,BBC,15Dec.2011.

North Africa
Algeria PresidentBouteflika18Decpromisedinternational

New CrisisGroupMiddleEast/NorthAfricaReportN115,Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges after Qadhafi,14Dec.2011.Asarecentuptick inviolencevividlyillustrates,thefateofmilitiasthatoustedQadhafisregime mustbecarefullyaddressedlesttheyjeopardiseLibyastransition. Mauritania NationalIndependentElectoralCommission(CENI)

observerswillsuperviselegislativeelectionsexpectedMay;new politicalpartieswillbeallowedtoformforfirsttimesince1999. Lawpassed16Decbannednon-govtgroupsfromreceiving foreignfinancialassistance.Parliament6Decadoptedlawaimed

approved14Dec,willfollowuponrecommendationsmadeby Octnationaldialoguebetweenoppositionandgovt.Police5Dec arrested2meninconnectionwithOctkidnappingof3aidworkers insouthernAlgeria.Policemankidnapped20Decbysuspected

11

al-QaedaintheIslamicMaghrebmilitantsduringraidonpolice stationnearMalianborder.
Mauritaniaapprovesindependentelectoralbody,Magharebia,14Dec. 2011.

Morocco OppositionIslamistJusticeandCharitymovement18

DecsuspendedinvolvementinFebruary20protestmovement. Severalthousanddemonstrated26DecinCasablanca,Rabat callingforpoliticalreform.Rightsgroupscommended25Nov electionsascredibleandfairdespitesporadicviolenceandminor irregularities.IstiqlalpartyofficialKarimGhellabelectedparliamentaryspeaker19Dec.

MoroccanIslamistsquitArabSpringopposition,Reuters,19Dec.2011.

Tunisia Clashesbrokeout30NovalongLibyanborderbetween

armyandarmedLibyangroups,causingmainRasJedirborder postandDehibaposttoclose,afterLibyanmilitiasthreatened Tunisianborderguards,exacerbatingeconomicdifficulties particularlyinSouth.Protestsovereconomyassit-insandstreet blockingsincreased,centralbankissueddirewarnings.New presidentMarzoukiswornin13Dec;newgovtinaugurated23 Dec,amidstruggleinnewConstituentAssembly(CA)between rulingcoalitionledbyIslamistEn-Nahdapartyandopposition ledbyProgressiveDemocraticParty.CA10Decadoptedprovisionalconstitution,electionstobeheldinapprox1year.President MarzoukimidDecannouncedsaleofpresidentialpalacestoraise moneyforjobcreation,calledonTunisianJewstoreturn,asked publicfor6-monthtrucetogeteconomyinorder.Salafistgroups continuedtoagitateonsocialissues.
CradleofArabSpringcelebratesfirstanniversary,Reuters,17Dec. 2011.

WesternSahara PolisarioFrontssecurityagency15Decreport-

edlydetained11suspectsin22Octkidnappingof3aidworkers insouthernAlgeria.
Saharanactivistsdetaingroupinaidabductions,AP,15Dec.2011.

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Field Offices
Crisis Group has regional offices or local field representation in Abuja, Baku, Bangkok, Beirut, Bishkek, Bogot, Cairo, Colombo, Dakar, Damascus, Dili, Islamabad, Istanbul, Jakarta, Jerusalem, Kabul, Kathmandu, Kinshasa, Nairobi, Ouagadougou, Port-auPrince, Pretoria, Pristina, Sarajevo, Seoul, Tbilisi and Tehran. Crisis Group is also currently covering (through analysts operating from regional or field bases, or consultants) Algeria, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China (Taiwan Strait), Cte dIvoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gulf States, India (Kashmir), Iraq, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, North Korea, Philippines, Russia (Dagestan), Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen and Zimbabwe.

The recommendations Crisis Group has made are based on the ground realities here in Zimbabwe, and that comes from having sharp, experienced analysts who understand the nature of the crisis, the nuances and have access to all key political actors. Often-times Crisis Group is able to say what many here are too afraid to say. That in itself breaks political logjams and helps move the transition process forward. Morgan Tsvangirai, Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, March 2010