,,, ~t ,·ry Tu e_o vlf- .

to+-~ l?)o L, qJ
"' S
-- - ( 5 )
U- - A)1
AI U A 1.

®
_ _s

B f-ffe_cJ
)A l J f ( f ' i )
0 · flAI)+ P(~
P(~)/\
P(B) ~ th ,} P ( A } J
I PATEL p
•• •
- P(e/
- \ -- . -
NAGINBHA
J IG /S H A B E N
 BAYES' Theorem:
• Let the event A~A 2 ,_A 3 , •••• Av.. form a partition in S, pairwise Disjoint event
and P(Ai) *
0 JOT L - 1,2,~ ... n,
Then Any Event B where p(B) > 0, then

• P(Ai/B)= p (A-i (\ 5) ~ p ( A-1) · f(B/A"1)

PCB) p(A~f(~/~0 t p(AL}f(B/Ai)
-- -t _ _ _ - - p(An) f ( B/lt'i)

• Bays rules is extensively used in estimation and detection theories.

• P(Ai) called priori probability and P(B / Ai) called posteriori probability.

JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
 A student knew only 60% of the question in a test each with 5 answers. He simply
guessed while answering the rest. What is the probability that he knew the answer
to a question given that he answered it correctly?

A _ s--\-"'-d.e.Y\.X kY1e1J0 the., P(T\swe.:I P Ui-) =- ' ~

1
"1
f\ - t( '?)~~~ " I/ PCA) = \ -~ / 3:
M 5 S
- 5-r \t..c\ ~tr C\YI ~/,t,J e_--(~ u:, ¥( e..c,\-\~ ·
p ( A / 2) :- 1 ? ( AJ - p ( E / A)
p ([)
~(() = 1)(AJ · P(E/tt) +P(A-) ·f(f-/A)
f ( f / A) ;, \ ? ( t- I A) ~ 1/s
JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
r c~) - - - ? ( f\ I(:) :c
 A given lot of ICs chip conta ins 2% defective chips. Each chip is tested before
delivery. The tester itself is not totally reliable. Probability of tester says the chip is
good when it really good is 0.95 and the chip is defective when it actually defective
is 0.9~ if a tested -----
- device is indicated to be defective, what is the probability that it
is actually defective?

300J
-A (I
I( ale fec-hve
I $ i'Y)cA i cct:keJ -h, be.sl efe chve.,
~
2
PCA) = \60

P(&llt)
-- ,- 0 -qs
JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
 Example 1:

• A small community consists of 10 women, each of whom has 3

children. If one woman and one of her children are to be chosen as
mother and child of the year, how many different choices are
possible?

JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
 Example 2:
• A college planning committee consists of 3 freshmen, 4..sop.bomores,
5 juniors, and 2 seniors . A subcommittee of4, consisting of 1 person
Trom each class,Tsto be chosen. How many different subcommittees
are possible?

11%/Hiiiiilii\lHM
 Example 3
• How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 3
places are to be occupied by letters and the final 4 by numbers?
2.6
:)
\o
Lek\ 121'6 y--y- - 11 U,.-1"l\)-€.,'6

2. ~ 1'. L l 7'. 2... C. t-.. \-ti 1-. \ D i \-ti 'A \6 -

• how many license plates would be possible if repetition among letters
or numbers were prohibitedi
JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
s
- 7 2-. , --( 1- 1' 'l 4 I\ la --f---1 '/...__'tf 'J 7 =- _ _
 Example 2
• A class in probability theory consists of 6 men and 4 women. An
examination is given, and the students are ranked according to their
performance. Assume that no two students obtain the same score.
a. How many different rankings are possible?
b. If the men are ranked just among themselves and the women just
among themselves, how many different rankings are possible?
t
Q) 6 +4 -=- \ 0 \a \
•
\,JoM

1) ~ I_ ) X l L, \_ ) •

JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
 Combinations:
• The number of r different grou ps of objects that could be formed
<

from a total of n objects. For instance, how many different groups of 3

could be selected from the 5 items A,B,C,D and E?

Yl ,7 I
11 CI'\, -
-
/,< -
-

6-k) I_ KJ
•

s- I.
Ee --
3 2\ •
3 ~

JIGISHABEN.NAGINBHAI.PATEL P. •••
The basic Principle of Counting

• Permutation
• Combinations
• Permutation: Relates to the act of arranging all the members of a set
into some sequence or ORDER(Order matters)

• Combination : way of selecting items from a collection, such that

order does not matter(Order does not matter)
C) pe: "D" T l\ J - c t } , Cl'-'\
Q) el??PE-R- 'Yl \
•

Y) I \_'Y\ z_ ' - - .Y\y' I_

G) CCYrr'\ k> i V\ c J
A- 1) < C ,D, f , av\ y
- -=) 3
1
c!5""1V.d- \:,e_ se.l e.c
k~
5,'-\·3
'Yl • (11 - 1 ----= ~ C
) Cn-z.l -- - ( " Y l - Y - t
\0 ~ ;4--'Z-
l ) 3 -2- · I
C f+)3
~-~) I
YI =
C~) r~~
Combinations:

• The number of r different groups of objects that could be formed

from a total of n objects. For instance, how many different groups of 3
could be selected from the 5 items A,B,C,D and E?
'11 l SI
•
(11-Y) Io
.
l
., 2 I ?> l
'Yl C
y IO
 Notat ion and termino logv
five define ( ; ). for r ::; n, by
r-- - - - - - ~

and say that G) (read as "n chooser") represents the number of possible

combinations of n objects taken r at a time .

Thus , c~) represents the number of different groups of size r that could be selected

from a set of n objects when the order of selection is not considered relevant.
Solve
. (:)= \ 0\ 'Yl \
;

. (~)= \ I

• A committee of 3 is to be formed from a group of 20 people. How

many different committees are possible?
2.0 _ z_o 'i. \9 ii'?'
--
3 312-1' )
~ \ \ Ltb
 Example
8. When all letters are use d, how many different letter arrangements
1

can be made from the letters .

a. Fluke? 5 \ S --J 4 'i 3 -x 2- x )
b. PrQpqse? -=f- I /
- - /21 21
c. Mississippi? .
d. Arrange? l----- 11 t

4l~t 2 •\
?- I
•
Find Possible Path.

A
11 4 t3x 2- .

,r
B
'
5

::.- Z f I x2:i I
l

2_\ 2\
• • = 6 II' j ii' V

-
- A R ~ u U
23. Consider the grid of points shown at the top of the next column .
Suppose that, starting at the point labeled A, you can go one step up or
one step to the right at each move. This procedure is continued until
the point labeled B is reached. How many different paths from A to B
are possible?
Hint: Note that to reach B from A, you must take 4 steps to the right
and 3 steps upward .
IJ

f\RRRUUU
1- I r

~
'-fl3)
, ,

-
A
24. In Problem 23 , how many different paths are there from A to B
that go through the point circled in the following lattice?
JJ J-++v P) (PhB)
- ..._ p 1~ ~uo 1<RU
r \
YI
~- 3)
I

.....-

.z_ I 2. I 2-- I IJ

A
 5. For years, telephone area codes in the United States and Canada
consisted of a sequence of three digits. The first digit was an integer
~ 2 ~ 9, the second digit was either O or 1, and the third digit
was any integer from 1 to 9~) How many area codes were possible?
b) How many area codes starting with a 4 were possible? =:';)
3, 4, r, ~
~ q. I )(

) j_ -+n ,
~ I
beJ- 2 dTI ci
Dooi
Q. 1
~ X 2'11
6.
i ~ 2 x_ 9 =- l~
 S'~ sr-ew, n C{ Mev,Yl q
IYl C-\ M-'e'n n q
{ t 1 1
ct e ~e. ch~
rro~<l~) Ji~ --re.stt \hY'..) ~'js~ WJ\\ ~e
~ ,:_ '1 o I \ D t'u'}l1c h~ 7
I

~ e_ +- 'm :;.. 2., l o \

• o l o
6
p Ct=) -=- 3/~
l/
o o ' \
\Co oY\ hvt3 l (h D J

\ \ 0Q
 rl lo +0\. \ t'\ 0 q V\ t +eM I.I\ C{_.,
'"rY) o{e+echve.
31
• Consider a set of n antennas of which mare defective and n-m are L\
functional and assume that all of the defectives and all of the ==- 3 ·
functionals are considered indistinguishable. How many linear ~'v
orderings are there in which no two defectives are consecutive? CD CI)
3
10 +<tl_ ~Y\ +e.MV\ ail..,
1')-r/\ Y\
~
~
: :. i
3
2_
ole-\-Q..ch~ 11-~ '° 2. 1 jJ
OFF®
-n✓'rl'\ -r \ t= F-- o 2;P r D
'YY\ 1= lJ ,=- \0 D
=i
Questions

• Which probability is symmetrical while which probability not

symmetrical?
5 1
NS

• The joint probability _ f ( ~ (\ B) ~ 5

• the conditional probability
-==yNS
 The binomial theorem
<

The values ( ; ) are often referred to as binomial coefficients because of their

-----
prominence in the binomial theorem .
•
• Expand x+ y -=- j + ,C

• Expand (x + y)3 K=--b I 2..

-
- 3 ;j + 3 -x.. j
a \
 'Y\ °'-" s~ \-t ~

tr
cl-\ vi J. e h1 to -I a\.:i s\--i V\.c:1-- ~'°Llf .
"1 1 '12., ( - - - Yli

'Y) 1-+Yl-z._ +-- . Y)y ==- Y]

HtrW r-()0,Y\j cA.d-t~ ~ cUvis.icN/ ~ qy(2__ r~s ibte.r.