Download ONI data from the following website and plot line or bar graphs.
Identify the El Niño and La
Niña years. Do you find any link between the year of major monsoon riverine floods in Bangladesh and
the ENSO year?
Answer:
El Niño and La Niña have been identified on the Anomaly Graph below through the 30 years (1994-2024)
data collected from the following website (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/sst).
El Niño
La Niña
Nino 3.4 Data Correlation with the Flood Years of Bangladesh
1. 1991 Flood: Occurred during El Niño phase. The collected data also shows the anomalies around
+0.6 which was experienced in the late 1990 indicating the increased rainfall that led to the
floods. The anomalies were less than 0.5 in 1990 and tended to about 0.7 in early 1991.
2. 1998 Flood: Characterized by a very strong El Niño. This is because the Nino 3.4 anomalies
reached very high levels in 1997-1998 to about +2.4. There were some anomalies in 1997 and
the values reached their highest in November 1997 and January 1998 which resulted to heavy
rainfall during the 1998 monsoon and caused the historical flood.
3. 2004 Flood: This flood had occurred after La Niña conditions in 2003. The data shows a gradual
decrease in anomalies to around -0.2 to -0.3 leading into 2004. Negative anomalies were
observed towards the end of 2003 and early 2004 and negative anomalies can cause
unpredictable weather condition and heavy monsoon rain.
4. 2007 Flood: Occurred during a La Niña phase. The anomalies were also negative and reached
very low which is around 0.5 in the years 2006 to 2007 which may corelate with high rainfall. As
a result, the flood of 2007 occurred in Bangladesh.
5. 2010 Flood: The El Niño phase during this period seems very low. Although, positive anomalies
were observed in the middle of 2010 which could have brought dry condition and less rainfall
during monsoon, hence higher rainfall had been observed during the period which caused flood.
6. 2014 Flood: Due to La Niña phase, leading to increased rainfall in the 2014 monsoon. This was
because it followed a La Niña season thus increasing the rainfall during the 2014 monsoon. The
anomalies were negative in 2013 and positive in the early 2014 which means that there was
inconsistency which could lead to heavy rainfall.
7. 2017 Flood: Occurred during the post El Niño period. This is because positive anomalies in 2016
led to extremely wet conditions in 2017. The anomalies were highly positive and reached up to
2.0 in late 2015 and early 2016 and then there were sustained positive anomalies up to 2017.
8. 2020 Flood: This was due to La Niña as it was seen in the case of heavy monsoon rains.
9. 2022 Flood: Heavy rains during the monsoon led to severe flood. Though the anomaly graph
shows that the during the mid-2022 the El Niño peaked around +2.0 which may have created a
wetter condition and caused heavy rainfall.
10. 2024 Flood: The flood indicates the El Niño condition in Bangladesh, as the values keep peaking
around +1.95 and +1.79 during this period. The high positive anomaly have created probability
of heavy rainfall and flood risk during 2024, which caused severe flood in Feni, Sunamganj,
Sreepur etc. Besides, similar patterns were observed during 1998 and 2010 which resulted
substantial flooding in Bangladesh.
