Population

1. Introduction
• a large population invariably puts pressure on a country’s limited resources
• But Large working age population is an asset for the economy
2. Malthusian Theory of Population Growth
• Malthus postulated that human population grew in a geometric progression, the
resources (agricultural base) grew at an arithmetic progression, and hence the
resources would never be sufficient to sustain the population growth and humanity
was doomed to poverty, unless some preventive measures were taken to check the
population growth.
• He stated that natural calamities were actually nature’s way of checking this
unsustainable rise in human population.
• Malthus’s predictions proved false because both food production and standards of
living continued to rise despite the rapid growth of population.
3. Understanding ‘demography’
• Demography is the science of the systematic study of population. Demography
studies the trends and processes associated with population including – changes in
population size; patterns of births, deaths, and migration ,structure and composition
of the population.

4. Determining Population Trends

• By census-the Economic Census in India is a Central Sector Scheme, with 100%
Central Assistance. undertaken by MOHA(Home affairs)
• &by survey -by NSSO under MOSPI
• In India, censuses began to be conducted by the British Indian government between
1867-72 (under British Viceroy Lord Mayo), and regular ten yearly (or decennial)
censuses have been conducted since 1881. Independent India continued the practice,
since 1951, the most recent being in 2011.
• Note-’population density’ refers to the number of people living in each unit of area
(such as a square mile).
 The density of population in India (2011) is 382 persons per sq km.
Broadly, 90 per cent of the world population lives in about 10 per cent of its
land area.
In 2015, 50.4 per cent of the world’s population was male and 49.6 per cent is
female
5. Factors Influencing the Distribution of
Population
• Geographical Factors:
Availability of water
Landforms(relief)-flat plains and gentle slopes
Conducive Climate and vegetation
Soils
Location of a place: Proximity to industrial or economic activity areas Ex. National
Capital Regions (NCR)
Area away from Natural disasters
• Economic Factors
Minerals: attract industries, generate employment.
Urbanisation: employment opportunities, edu and medical facilities, transport
,communication, Good civic amenities .
Industrialization
• Social and Cultural Factors -Have religious or cultural significance. Puri, Tirupati,
Haridwar are densely populated.
• Political Factors -people avoid where there is social and political unrest. Ex- refugee
migrants in the East and the North East have crossed over from Bangladesh and
Myanmar.
• Demographic Factors
Migration
Natural increase: It is the net outcome of fertility and mortality in a region.
6. Determinants of Population Change
• Are Fertility, Mortality and Migration.
Fertility

Fecundity refers to the physiological capacity to reproduce. Fertility, on the other hand,
refers to the actual reproductive performance of an individual or a group.
Determinants of High Fertility
As per data given by the Niti Aayog for the year 2016, the TFR for Indian women stood
at 2.3.
a) Religious Ideologies
b) Universality of the institution of marriage
c) Early marriage and early child-bearing
d) Preference for sons ingrained in the Indian culture
e) Lack of right of self-determination with reference to reproduction
f) High infant and child mortality rates
h) Absence of adoption of methods of conception control.
Implications of High Fertility
1. Women are denied the opportunity as busy in child rearing and child bearing in their
best reproductive age.
2. Excessive child-bearing affects their health and that of their children.
3. Burden on the bread-winner of the family.
4. Girl child is the worst sufferer as often not sent to school.
5. Children, both boys and girls,often denied the joys of childhood, pushed into adult
roles at a very early age.
Reason for the decrease in TFR: Education, increased mobility, delayed marriage,
Workimg women and overall prosperity is all contributing to a falling TFR.
2. Mortality
• Crude Death Rate: It is the ratio of the total registered deaths occurring in a
specified calendar year to the total mid-year population of that year, multiplied by
1000. o reduced from 9.8 in 1994 to 7.3 in 2020 for India.
• The expectation of Life at Birth: Today India’s life expectancy at birth nearly
doubled to 68 years from 37 years in 1950s, and by 2050, it is projected to increase to
76 years.
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): It is the number of deaths of children under one
year of age per 1000 live births. o As per Sample Registration System (SRS) survey, India
has reduced its IMR from 57 per 1,000 live births in 2006 to 28 in 2020.
• Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR): (Death of a woman (Per lakh live births) while
pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy). o As per (SRS), It was
decreased from 167 in 2014 to 97 in 2020
Reasons why the IMR remains high are
1. Socio-economic factors: poverty, caste, low educational status and poor literacy
make it difficult for millions to access Healthcare
2. Early marriages: children born to minors are susceptible to malnutrition
3. Skewed healthcare access
4. Lack of Immunization
5. Misuse of technology: the sex ratio decreased
6. Political factors: Healthcare is a state subject, creating bottlenecks while framing
policies and spending the approved budget, as the latter is done by the centre. There
is also a lack of credible data to take effective policy decisions.
Major reasons for a high MMR are
1. Poor infrastructure at the primary healthcare level
 2. Socio-economic factors:
3. Patriarchy: leads to the neglect of women during critical times such as pregnancy
4. Obstretic causes: Ex-hemorrhage, infection, and hypertensive disorders, ruptured
uterus, hepatitis, and anemia.
5. Unplanned pregnancy and hence illegal abortions
6. Mass illiteracy as people are not aware about the good health facilities
7. Political factors: ex-there is a dearth of finance
3. Migration
1. Immigration: Migrants who move into a new place are called Immigrants.
2. Emigration: Migrants who move out of a place are called Emigrants.
7. Trends in Growth of Indian Population

8. Theory of Demographic Transition

First coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein
Stage 1: Pre-transition
Low population growth in a society that is under-developed and technologically
backward. Both the death rate and the birth rate are very high
Stage 2: Early transition
Death rate begins to fall. As birth rates remain high, the population starts to grow
rapidly. This is ‘population explosion’.
Stage 3: Late transition
fertility rate declines and tends to equal the death rate. Birth rates begin to fall, rate of
population growth decelerates.
Stage 4: Post-transition
low birth and low death rates. In fact, birth rates may drop to well below replacement
levels. So, population growth is negligible, leading to a phenomenon of shrinking
population (like in Japan and Germany)
 1. Demographic Dividend
occurs when the proportion of working people in the total population is higher than the
dependent population (age groups 0-15 years and 60 years and above)
India is in this stage of demographic dividend, where more than 63% of the population is
in the age group of 15-59 years.
This potential can be converted into actual growth only if the rise in the working age
group is accompanied by increasing levels of education and employment
2. Optimum Population
A country is said to have an optimum population when the number of people is in
balance with the available resources
9. The population pyramid (The age-sex pyramid)
The age-sex structure of a population refers to the number of females and males in
different age groups.
10. Population composition
popn ko divide krna on basis of something like age, sex, religion.
1. Age composition
Children (generally below 15 years): economically unproductive
Working Age (15-59 years): economically productive and biologically reproductive.
Aged (Above 59 years): They can be economically productive though they and may
have retired.
Dependency Ratio Student Notes: The dependency ratio is a measure comparing the
portion of a population which is composed of dependents with the portion that is in
the working age group, generally defined as 15 to 59 years.
2. Sex composition
Child Sex Ratio is the sex ratio in the age group 0-6 years (child) in a given area.
3. Transgender composition
During Enumeration of Census 2011, for the first time three codes were provided i.e.
Male-1, Female –2 and others -3. it is important to note that the Census on India does
not collect any data specifically on 'transgender'
4. Divyang composition
2011 census - constituting 8.3 percent of the total households
5. Literacy composition
 While only 74 per cent literacy has been achieved as per Census 2011, there has been
marked improvement in female literacy. Male literacy at 82.1 per cent is still higher
than female literacy at 65.5 per cent but the latter has increased by 10.9 percentage
points compared to 5.6 percentage points for the former
6. Working Population Composition
Three groups, namely; main workers, marginal workers and non-workers.
Standard Census Definition- Main Worker is a person who works for at least 183
days in a year. Marginal Worker is a person who works for less than 183 days in a
year.
The Economic Survey (2015-16) states that the proportion of economically active
population (15-59 years) has increased from 57.7 per cent to 63.3 per cent during
1991 to 2013
7. Adolescents
At present the share of adolescents i.e. up to the age group of 10-19 years is about
21 per cent (2011).
The National Population Policy 2000 identifies them as an “under-served population
group”, because their needs have not been specifically addressed so far. The Policy
describes various strategies to address different needs of adolescents.
8. Issues related to Youth
The National Youth Policy 2014 defines the age of youth as persons between the age
15-29 years
• Employability Challenge- Over 30% of youth aged 15-29 in India are not in
employment, education or training
• Drug Abuse Being signatory to all the three UN conventions and SAARC
convention, India has enacted Narcotics Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act,
1985 and Prevention of Illicit Trafficking of Narcotics Drug and Psychotropic
Substances Act, 1988
• Suicidal Tendencies
• Radicalization- Recent reports about a group of Indians joining the ISIS. Other is
India's domestic politics where radical groups and ideologies are being
propagated.
• Political exclusion- As an age cohort, youth are less likely to be involved in
governance and decision-making processes, as a result of economic, political, and
procedural barriers that prevent their participation. As the beneficiaries of
services, youth are also likely to face marginalization
9. National Youth Policy
The vision of NYP-2014 is to empower youth to achieve their full potential.
11. Population Issues
A. Population Problems of Underdeveloped Countries
• Problems of Over-population
Rapid population growth: Large populations increase rapidly especially in the absence
of family planning practices
Unemployment
Poor standards of living: Standards of health and hygiene
Under-utilization of Agricultural resources
Slow growth of industry-labour force though large in number is unskilled
Traditional attitudes militating against change-Birth-control is forbidden by Catholic
Church, for instance

• Problems of Under-Population
Uneven Distribution of Population
Remoteness: It is difficult to increase settlement in sparsely populated areas
Under Utilization of resources
Slow growth of Industry
Climatic Problems
B. Population Problems of Advanced Countries
Ageing Population-e.g. health services for elderly people pose financial challenges.
Small Work force
Rural Depopulation: Steady movement of population occurs from countryside to towns
due to the pull factors of city life
Urbanization
12. Population Policies in India
• India was first country to explicitly announce such a family planning policy in 1952.
The aim of the programme was to reduce birth rates “to stabilize the population at a
level consistent with the requirement of national economy”
• Policy formed in form of the National Family Planning Programme & objective was to
promotion of various birth control methods, improve public health standards, and
increase public awareness about population and health issues.
• The Family Planning Programme suffered a setback during the years of the National
Emergency (1975-76).During this time the government tried to intensify the effort to
bring down the growth rate of population by introducing a coercive programme of
mass sterilization
• There was widespread popular opposition to this programme, and the new
government elected after the Emergency abandoned it. The National Family
Planning Programme was renamed as the National Family Welfare Programme after
the Emergency, and coercive methods were no longer used.
• So, in 1976, the first National Population Policy was formulated and tabled in
Parliament. However, the statement was neither discussed nor adopted.
Later, This was followed by the National Population Policy in 2000.
1. National Population Policy 2000
• The National Population Policy 2000 has made a qualitative departure in its
approach to population issues. It does not directly lay emphasis on population
control.
• Emphasis on to improve the quality of lives that people lead, to enhance their
wellbeing.
• Immediate objective of the NPP 2000 is to address the unmet needs for
contraception, health care infrastructure, and health personnel, and to provide
integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care.
• The medium term objective was to bring the total fertility rate (TFR) to replacement
levels by 2010 .
• The long term objective was to achieve a stable population by 2045 with sustainable
economic growth, social development, and environmental protection.
• NOTE-Stable Population: A population where fertility and mortality are constant
over a period of time. This type of population will show an unvarying age
distribution and will grow at a constant rate.
2. Appraisal of National Population Policy 2000
• The percentage decadal growth rate of the country has declined significantly from
21.5% for the period 1991-2001 to 17.7% during 2001-2011.
 • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 3.2 at the time when National Population Policy, 2000
was adopted and the same has declined to 2.3 as per (SRS) 2013
• Total fertility rates ignore the larger mission of NPP-2000, namely the promise of
high quality reproductive healthcare.
3. What else should a future population policy address?
A. To inc sex ratio& child sex ratio(especially in rural areas)-provide women ownership
right on land & property.
B. Migration(put pressure on infra, housing, water facilities exacerbating popn issue)-
regional growth needed, employment
C. Ageing factor & large dependency ratio problems need to address
13. Measures taken to control the population
growth of India
On-going interventions
• More emphasis on Spacing methods like IUCD(contraceptive-condoms)
• Availability of Fixed Day Static Services at all facilities(static services-providing
sterlisation services in health facilities on fixed day)
• Quality care in Family Planning services by establishing Quality Assurance
Committees at state and district levels.
• Improving contraceptives supply management up to peripheral facilities.
• Demand generation activities in the form of display of posters, billboards and other
audio and video materials in the various facilities.
• National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme’ (NFPIS) under which clients are insured
in the eventualities of deaths, complications and failures following sterilization and
the providers/ accredited institutions are indemnified against litigations in those
eventualities.
• Compensation scheme for sterilization acceptors - under the scheme MoHFW
provides compensation for loss of wages to the beneficiary and also to the service
provider (& team) for conducting sterilisations.
• Increasing male participation and promotion of Non Scalpel Vasectomy.
• Emphasis on Minlap Tubectomy services because of its logistical simplicity and
requirement of only MBBS doctors and not post graduate gynecologists/surgeons.
• Accreditation of more private/NGO facilities to increase the provider base for family
planning services under PPP.
New Interventions under Family Planning Programme