DEMOGRAPHY

INTRODUCTION
• India is often described as a collection of many
countries held together by a common destiny and a
successful democracy.
• Its diverse ethnic, linguistic, geographic, religious,
and demographic features reflect its rich history and
shape its present and future.
• No fewer than 16 languages are featured on Indian
rupee notes.
• It is also only the second country to achieve a
population of 1 billion.
• India, like many other countries, has come a long
way from the initial days of evolution under
conditions of high mortality due to famines,
accidents, illness, infections and war, when
relatively high levels of fertility was essential for
species survival.
• Over the years , better equipped in dealing with
diseases and vagaries of nature, it has witnessed
significant increase in life expectancy along with
steep fall in mortality
• Demography is the scientific study of human
population.
• The study of populations, especially with
reference to size and density, fertility, mortality,
growth, age distribution, migration, and vital
statistics and the integration of all these with
social and economic conditions.
 HISTORY
• Ancient India in 300 BC may have had a
population range of 100-140 million.
• It has been estimated that the population was
about 100 million in 1600 and remained nearly
static until the late 19th century.
• It reached 255 million according to the census
taken in 1881
• The history of the census began in 1800 when
England had begun its census.
• Based on this methodology, a census was
conducted in some towns and provinces of British
India.
• The first census of India began in 1871 but, the
modern census started in 1881.
• Since then the census of India has provided
uninterrupted counts of population for every ten
years.
Demography focuses readily on three
observable human phenomena.

Changes in
population size

Distribution
Composition
of the
of the
population
population
in the space
It deals with five demographic
processes
Fertility

Mortality

Marriage

Migration

Social
mobility
 DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
• The history of world population since 1650
suggests that there is a demographic cycle of 5
stages through which a nation passes.
 FIRST STAGE
(HIGH STATIONARY)

• Is characterized by a high birth rate and a high

death rate which cancel each other.
• Population remains stationary.
• India was in this stage till 1920.
 SECOND STAGE (EARLY
EXPANDING)

• The death rate begins to decline, while the birth

rate remains unchanged.
• Many countries in south Asia and Africa are in
this phase.
• Birth rates have increased in some of these
possibly as a result of improved health conditions.
THIRD STAGE (LATE EXPANDING)

• The death rate declines still further, and the birth

rate tends to fall.
• The population continues to grow because births
exceed deaths.
• India has entered this phase.
• In a number of developing countries birth rates
have declined rapidly. (China, Singapore)
 FOURTH STAGE (LOW
STATIONARY)
• It is characterized by a low birth and low death
rate with the result that the population
becomes stationary.
• Most industrialized countries have undergone a
demographic transition shifting from a high birth
and high death rates to low birth and low death
rates.
• An aging population is a feature of this stage.
• Japan, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland
are in this stage
 FIFTH STAGE (DECLINING)

• The population begins to decline because birth

rate is lower than the death rate.
• Some East European countries, notably Germany
and Hungary are experiencing this stage.
SOURCES

• Census
• Vital Events Registration (birth, death, marriage)
• Population surveys
• Sample Registration Survey(SRS)
• NFHS
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
• Provide an overview of its population size,
composition, territorial distribution, changes
therein and the components of changes such as
nativity, mortality and social mobility.
• They are divided in to two parts :-
POPULATION STATISTICS VITAL STATISTICS

POPULATION BIRTH
SIZE RATE

SEX DEATH
RATIO RATE

DENSITY NATURAL
GROWTH RATE

DEPENDENCY RATIO LIFE EXPECTANCY

ATBIRTH

MORTALITY AND
FERTILITY RATES
 POPULATION SIZE
• India is the second most populous country in the
world, with over 1.277 billion people. (2015)

• Seventh largest in land area.

• With only 2.4% of world’s land area, India is

supporting about 17.5% of the world’s population.
• India’s population has been steadily increasing since
1921.
• The year 1921 is called the “BIG DIVIDE”.
• India’s population is currently increasing at the rate
of 16 million each year.
• It has been estimated that
with current trends, the population
In India will increase to 1.4 billion till
2026.
POPULATION OF INDIA 1901-2011
RANKING OF MOST POPULOUS
STATES
PERCENT TO TOTAL
PROJECTED
RANK STATE POPULATION OF
POPULATION
INDIA 31-3-2011
1 UTTAR PRADESH 199,581 16.49
2 MAHARASHTRA 112,372 9.29
3 BIHAR 103,804 8.58
4 WEST BENGAL 91,347 7.55
5 ANDHRA PRADESH 84,665 7.00
6 MADHYA PRADESH 72,597 6.00
7 TAMIL NADU 72,138 5.96
8 RAJASTHAN 68,621 5.67
9 KARNATAKA 61,130 5.05
10 GUJARAT 60,383 4.99
AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION
• AGE PYRAMID:
• Represents age structure of a population.
• The age pyramid of India is typical of developing
countries i.e. with a “broad base” and “tapering
top”.
TAPERING TOP

BROAD BASE
 SEX RATIO
• Is defined as “the number of females per 1000
males”.
• It plays a vital role in any population analysis
study.
• The sex composition is affected by the
differentials in mortality conditions of males and
females; sex selective migration and sex ratio at
birth.
Causes of Low Sex Ratio:

• Strong Male child preference

• Consequent gender Inequities
• Neglect of the girl child
• Female infanticide
• Female feticide

Catalyst:
• Easy access to Sex Determination Services
• Availability of MTP
Trends in the sex ratio in the country
from 1951-2011
 SEX RATIO : AT BIRTH
• Sex ratio at birth can be affected by sex selectivity
at birth.
• The sex ratio at birth for India for the year 2011
has been estimated at 878.
• It varies from 871 in rural areas to 891 in urban
areas.
• Among the bigger states, the sex ratio at birth
varies from 1,048 in Kerala to 877 in Haryana.
(Assam – 962, overall 958)
The Prime Minister launched the Beti Bachao Beti
Padhao Scheme on 22nd January 2015 at Panipat in
Haryana. This scheme is an initiative to address issues
that affect women in the longer term and to reverse the
trend of an adverse and declining Child Sex Ratio
The Overall Goal of the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao (BBBP)
Scheme is to celebrate the girl child and enable her education.

The Objectives of the Scheme are :

1. To prevent gender-biased sex selective elimination
2. To ensure survival and protection of the girl child
3. To ensure education and participation of the girl child
Levels Target Groups

Primary Young and newly married couples; Pregnant and Lactating

mothers; parents

Secondary Youth, adolescents (girls and boys), in-laws, medical

doctors/ practitioners, private hospitals, nursing homes and
diagnostic centres
Tertiary Officials, PRIs; frontline SHGs/Collectives, workers, religious
women leaders, voluntary organizations, media, medical
associations, industry associations
 DEPENDENCY RATIO

• A country’s population can be divided into three

groups – old dependents, young dependents and
economically active.
• Old dependents: anyone over the age of 65.
• Young dependents: anyone under the age of 15.
• Economically active: anyone between the age
group of 16-65 who normally works and
pays tax.
• The ratio of the combined age groups 0-14 plus
65 years and above to the 15-65 years age group
is referred to as the total dependency ratio.
• It is also referred to as the societal dependency
ratio.
• It reflects the needs of the society to provide for
their younger and older population.
𝒅𝒆𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐 =

𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒍𝒅𝒓𝒆𝒏 𝟎 − 𝟏𝟒 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔 𝒂𝒈𝒆 + 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒏 𝟔𝟓 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒈𝒆

𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝟏𝟓 𝒕𝒐 𝟔𝟒 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔
× 𝟏𝟎𝟎
FACTORS INFLUENCING HIGH DEPENDENCY
RATIO

• INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY: people are

living longer, which means that more children are
being born and are also living longer.
• FALLING DEATH RATES: less deaths due to
advancement in health care, means less elderly
are dyeing due to degenerative diseases and infant
mortality rates are decreasing.
• RISING BIRTH RATES: more children who live
a longer life.
• IMMIGRATION OF DEPENDENTS: if young
and elderly migrate into a country, the
dependency ratio will increase.
• EMMIGRATION OF ECONOMICALLY
ACTIVE: if economically active people will leave
the country than dependency ratio increases.
• For international comparison, the child, old and
total dependency ratios are used to study the
dependency burden of the population.
• The total dependency ratio tends to decrease in
the earlier stages of development when rapid
decline in fertility reduces the child population
more than the increase in the older persons, but
subsequently the increase in older persons far
overweighs the decline in the child population.
• There is a shift from child dependency to old age
dependency, as fertility declines and life
expectancy increases.
• The rapid decline in dependency ratios, especially the child
dependency ratio, has been identified to be a key factor
underlying rapid economic development.
• Demographic Bonus : the period when the dependency
ratio in a population declines because of decline in fertility,
until it starts to rise again because of increasing longevity.
• It depends on the pace of decline in fertility level of
population.
• Demographic Burden: the increase in the total
dependency ratio during any period of time, mostly
caused by increased old age dependency ratio.
 DENSITY OF POPULATION
• One of the most important indices of population
concentration.
• In the Indian census, density is defined as the
number of persons, living per square kilometer.
YEAR PER SQ.1971KM
1901 77
1911 82
1921 81
1931 90
1941 103
1951 117
1961 142
1971 177
1981 216
1991 267
2001 325
2011 382
 MIGRATION
• Migration in the Census of India is of two types –
Migration by Birth place and Migration by place
of last residence.
• When a person is enumerated in Census at a
place, i.e., village or town, different from her/his
place of birth, she/he would be considered a
migrant by place of birth.
• A person would be considered a migrant by place
of last residence, if she/he had last resided at a
place other than her/his place of enumeration.
• The following reasons for migration from place of
last residence are captured: Work/Employment,
Business, Education, Marriage, Moved after birth,
Moved with household and any other.
• Historically, information on migration has been
collected since 1872. It was confined to seeking
information only on place of birth till 1961.
• Since the 1971 Census, data is being collected on
the basis of place of last residence in addition to
the question on birth place.
• Question on ‘Reason for migration’ was
introduced in 1981.
• Due to partition of the country in 1947 a large
number of persons had migrated from both West
Pakistan and East Pakistan. Later at the time of
1971 War a large influx of population was
recorded from Bangladesh.
• The data on migration show that in 2011 Census
among the total population about 51 lakh persons
in the country were migrants from across the
International border.
 Migrations by Place of
Category Percentage
birth
Total Population 1,028,610,328
Total Migrations 307,149,736 29.9
Migrants within the state
258,641,103 84.2
of enumeration
Migrants from within the
181,799,637 70.3
districts
Migrants from other
76,841,466 29.7
districts of the state
Migrants from other
42,341,703 13.8
states in India
Migrants from other
6,166,930 2.0
countries
 Migrations by last
Category Percentage
residence
Total Population 1,028,610,328

Total Migrations 314,541,350 30.6

Migrants within the state

268,219,260 85.3
of enumeration

Migrants from within the

193,592,938 72.2
districts

Migrants from other

74,626,322 17.8
districts of the state

Migrants from other

41,166,265 13.1
states in India
Migrants from other
5,155,423 1.6
countries
 FAMILY SIZE
• While in common parlance, family size refers to
the total number of persons in a family, in
demography family size means the total number
of children a woman has borne at a point of time.
• The completed family size indicates the total
number of children borne by a woman during her
child bearing age, which is generally assumed to
be between 15 and 45 years.
• The total fertility rate gives the approximate
magnitude of the completed family size.
DEPENDS ON

DURATION EDUCATION
OF OF THE
MARRAIGE COUPLE

PREFERENC NUMBER OF
E OF MALE LIVE
CHILD, BIRTHS AND
DESIRED LIVING
FAMILY SIZE CHILDREN
• The family planning program's campaign is
currently based on the theme of a “two child”
family, norm, with a view to reach the long-term
demographic goal of NRR=1.
• Family planning involves both decision regarding
the ‘desired family size’ and the effective
limitation of fertility once that size has been
reached.
LITERACY AND EDUCATION
• The benefits that accurate to a country by having
a literate population are multidimensional.
• Spread of literacy is generally associated with
modernization.
• It was decided in 1991 census to use the term
literacy rate for the population relating to seven
years age and above.
• A person who can merely read but cannot write is
not considered literate.
• The literacy rate taking in account the total
population in the denominator has now been
termed as “ crude literacy rate”.
• The literacy rate calculated taking into account
the 7years and above population in the
denominator is called effective literacy rate.
In India Kerala occupies the top rank with
93.91% literacy rate.
Lakshadweep 92.28%
Mizoram 91.58%
TELANGANA
 LIFE EXPECTANCY
• Life expectancy : at a given age is the average
number of years which a person of that age may
expect to live according to the mortality pattern
prevalence in that country.
• Indicator of country’s level of development &
overall health status of the population.”
▪ Expectation of life at birth – World (Combined
for both sexes)
1950 : 46.5 years
2002 : 63 years

• Census 2011:The value for Life expectancy at

birth, total (years) in India was 65.48 as of 2011.
• Trends in life expectancy show that people are
living longer and they have a right to a long life in
good health rather than one of pain and disability.

Expectation of life at birth, years - India

Year Males Females
1901 23.63 23.96
1951 32.45 31.66
1961 41.89 40.55
1971 46.40 44.70
1981 54.10 54.70
1991 59.70 60.90
2001 63.90 66.90
2011 65 68
 FERTILITY
• Fertility means the actual bearing of children
between the age of 15 and 49 years.
• Fertility rate is a number of births per 1000
women of specific compositions.
• Birth rate is the simplest indicator of fertility.
• Birth rate: the number of live births per 1000
estimated mid-year population, in a given year.

number of live births

during the year
• Birth rate = estimated mid−year × 1000
population
• Birth rate is unsatisfactory measure of fertility.
• General fertility rate GFR: number of births per
1000 women between the age of 15 and 49 years

𝑁 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
GFR= 𝑚𝑖𝑑−𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ×1000
𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15−49
• General marital fertility rate (GMFR): it is the
number of live births per 1000 married women in
the reproductive age group (15-44 or 49) in a
given year.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑮𝑴𝑭𝑹 = × 1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 − 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝
15 − 49 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
• Age-specific fertility rate: number of births to
women of a particular age (a year or age group).
E.g. females in the age group 20-24 years.

𝑵 𝒐𝒇 𝒍𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔
𝒐𝒇 𝒎𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓
𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒅 𝟐𝟎−𝟐𝟒 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔
• Age specific fertility ratio = 𝒎𝒊𝒅 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒇𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 ×1000
𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒅
𝟐𝟎−𝟐𝟒 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔
• Total fertility rate (TFR): average number of
children a woman would bear during her
reproductive lifetime (15-49 years), assuming her
childbearing conforms to her age-specific fertility
rate every year of her childbearing years.
• From biological point of view (without
concerning migration and at a stable level of
mortality) TFR indicates clearly the trend of the
human reproduction.
• TRF=2, which means that mother and father in
the family will be replaced by 2 children.
• TFR greater than 2 means growing population
• TFR less than 2 means decreasing number of the
population
• Fertility depends upon several factors.
• The higher fertility in India is attributed to
universality of marriage, lower age at marriage,
low level of literacy, poor level of living, limited
use of contraceptives and traditional ways of life.
Fertility rate all over the world
 Age at marriage
• The age at which a female marries and enters the
reproductive period of life has a great impact.
• Early marriage is a long established custom in
India.
• In 1929 the Sarada act was enacted forbidding
the practice of child marriage.
• The child marriage restraint act of 1978 raises the
legal age at marriage from 15 to 18 years for girls
and from, 18 to 21 years for boys
• In many states the mean age at marriage for girls
has already moved up to 20 years in 2006
and many others are very close to it.
• The national average for effective marriage is 21
years.
 Duration of married life
• 10-25 percent of all births occur within 1-5 years
of married life.
• 50-55 percent of all births within 5-15 years of
married life.
• Births after 25 years of married life are very few.
 Spacing of children
• Studies show that when all births are postponed
by one year, in each age group, there was a
decline in total fertility.
• It depicts that spacing of children may have a
significant impact on the general reduction in the
fertility rates.
 Education
• Inverse relationship exists between fertility and
educational status.
• The national family health survey shows that the
total fertility rate is 1.7 children higher for
illiterate women than for women with at least a
high school education.
 Economic status
• Inverse relationship exists between fertility and
economic status.
• The total number of children declines with an
increase in per capita expenditure of the
household.
• The world population conference at Bucharest in
fact stresses that economic development is the
best contraceptive.
 Caste and religion
• Muslims have higher fertility than hindus.
• The national family health survey – 3 reported a
total fertility rate of 3.09 among muslims as
compared to 2.65 among hindus and 2.35 among
christians.
• Among hindus, the lower castes seem to have a
higher fertility rate than the higher castes.
 Nutrition
• The relationship between fertility and nutrition is
largely indirect.

Family planning
• Family planning has a key role in declining
fertility.
• Family planning programs can be initiated rapidly
and require only limited resources.
 Others
• Fertility is affected by a number of physical,
biological, social and cultural factors such as
place of women in society, value of children in
society, widow remarriage, breast-feeding,
customs and beliefs, industrialization and
urbanization, better health conditions, housing,
opportunities for women and local community
involvement.
 NATALITY

• Birth (by WHO definition 1950)as a natality event

means live birth (contrasted to the still birth) that
occurs when a foetus exits the maternal body and
subsequently shows any signs of life as heartbeat,
pulsation of the umbilical cord, any voluntary
movement
• Complete birth is the infant’s entire separation from
the maternal body (by cutting of the umbilical cord)
after 42 completed weeks (294 days) of gestation.
• Birth rate: the number of live births per 1000
estimated mid-year population, in a given year.

number of live births

during the year
• Birth rate = estimated mid−year × 1000
population
Birth in demographic terms may be

Singleton: one offspring produced in the same

gestation period

Multiple: two or more offspring produced in the

same gestation period

Preterm(PTB): birth of an infant before 37

completed weeks (259 days) of gestation
Low weight(LBW): the infant’s weight is <2500
gram
• Crude birth rate is the number of live births in a
year per 1000 of the population.
• First the total number of live birth is divided by
the mid-year population of the referred territorial
unit.

𝑁 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
Birth rate = ×1000
𝑚𝑖𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
• Preterm birth (PTB) rate is the number of
preterm born infants per 100 live births in a year.

• Low birth weight (LBW) rate is the number of

substandard (<2500 gram) weight infants per 100
live births in a year.
 REASONS FOR HIGH BIRTH RATE

• Universality of marriage
• early marriage
• Early puberty
• Low standards of living
• Low level of literacy
• Traditional customs
• Absence of family planning habit
 MORTALITY
• Mortality is a relationship of death cases to the
whole population.
• Two basic types of mortality:
1. General (crude) mortality rate or death rate
2. Specific mortality rates
❖ Age and sex related (special rates: infant
mortality and foetal losses)
❖ Cause related (diseases, injuries, suicide,
homicide)
❖ Life expectancy (sex and age related)
• Crude death rate (or mortality rate) is the
number of death cases in a year per 1000 of the
population.

𝑵 𝒐𝒇 𝒅𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔
Crude mortality rate = ×1000
𝒎𝒊𝒅 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
• Age and sex related mortality rate: CMRs can
be computed for both genders and age groups.
The age group under 1 year is separately treated
(the infant mortality).
• General population between 40-49 years:
• Infant mortality rate: is the number of deaths of
infants under one year (365 days) old in a given
year per 1,000 live births occurred in the same
year.
• This rate is divided up for 4 subgroups and often
used as an indicator of the level of health in a
country
Maternal mortality
• Special case of sex-related mortality.
• Represents death cases of women who die during
pregnancy and childbirth inclusive the first 42
days after the delivery (WHO definition).
• The number per year is relatively small
(developed countries), thus maternal mortality
rate is computed per 100,000 live births.
 REASONS FOR DECLINING DEATH
RATE
• Absence of natural checks
• Mass control of disease
• Advances in medical sciences
• Better health facilities
• Impact of national health programmes
• Improvements in food supply
• Development of social consciousness
 GROWTH RATE
• Prior to 1927, the population of India grew at a
slow rate. This was due to the operation of natural
checks (e.g., famines and epidemics) which took a
heavy toll of human life.
• After 1921, the "great divide", the occurrence of
famines and epidemics was effectively controlled
through better nutrition and improved health care
services, with the result that the death rate
declined more steeply than the birth rate.
• Consequently, there was a net gain in births over
deaths, leading to rapid growth in population,
which rose from 1.25 per cent in 1951 to 1.96 in
1961, 2.20 in 1971, 2.22 in 1981, 2.14 in 1991,
1.93 in 2001 and 1.64 in 2011.
Population growth chart of India