Let x be Re vanioble! with! aRe: distin worondom votur A expectodien 4 x fs denoted by |e EO) | Aictink vortables, ped 2c fy ae Bessy Ae probability femeBion 40> tRe Sienilonly {8 Re voniable ¢ wih te lord ceee se roving Re gees mir Jamon aps Ke expectodion 4 y is denoted o» Fod= y= F494] wvitten oF JOINT PROBABILITY § MARKOV CHAIN — Exper sodiony | | | Similonly fe expedotion 4 <4 j | Vosiomce {8 +Re vootable Senoted VOI" sere ¥ Ge p= EGC | where, E(a>) =e x4. ECSD REP UD Stomdond deviecion demoted os ~» {8 He von able “Se = Sve ce § eH am ce Cove e(ay)- E GHEY) Pe eto. GS) = cov CO) ~ g Note: Ff 4 ome yon dependent mamdoans veniavle Hen: co-veniuaée A ey Be equal te 0 | Ay the joint Askvibuion f & sand 1 ecendl DED 4 EGY) HyeGDp We & MY WN) cov Gy) PAV oan yoritble Sf & 4 follows== gQ)=! presgrep — ~ 1 OGG + O27) OD. (OSC) OO) ONE =3h 4 [Dat = EG -EO? ees F4O) = (rey) + (SE)-4 Geny= facwc- 12-9 ~— =u we e(y-ECDS | “> ec)-=79O =x y)+ ry dCrO-* ice v=: Deen aT ec) a @ ) = he => -0: 32, @ x4- 330! aoe ven amigm vonyables ome mot IndependentsDTbe yoimt disterbution { two sandom variable x54 mes | ] | 1 1 x | i i Find the mongiva® Aistwibshon { ERE { 4g ia” 4 El oP eeeee eke dation crams { 2) em omen bs Ge iit ac Sie nS, Moginol Sitribaon 4d x Moogimel distzibubion 4 yy - follows - : ; * os [4e) oc om | | | E@ = ex{@ = (Vx 0.6) + QxorH) eq) SYD | z Gako. 34614029 seo E403) = Y Ee Vara | Poy) =()x-2%0. I+ (xt 0.) (1 4x0) Ciss x0.3)4@ x-axo (axxo) + Carmros 8x5 %°) = 0.9 ane ect) EON | ead = ex {oo ay xo 6) +(e7x0%) | pers) aE) xt ad TAG oye ely) -£e 4) EGS y Vay~ = Exo. Wy 09) Heo.) oes ood == Tork | cov(X 4) = cy) -e@) ©) = on - (14x!) 2-018 ‘ Kies za Omega xd O78 2 0733 aees ve »%%)> Wa a . EX Cor .qejeoritorost ee M5 (a. Mer 14) Mote Ce sod fe be strochortc eenebeges oi? “4 | probability ved. eon ; . 8 [= 4) nr hel i ony ie[? % OL %rH tO! Oo % hil ormeh*! 0 0 +f orosims Be eae atest boy | a 40 be o Yea eochortic stro choatic | amothix “Al ts soid Rome Some > cise e a WAT | mokvix 1 ah He antries 4 ee " + A , ; j ) verity +e Yr emodvix fs i stvochon ie peers Senots da 3% ‘| ; as Gay rant |: 4 o?2 [are oro) * G: he etnodhostic cmabylx - WoTes Im toby B Cmotsin9 marao— o* acs) .Oltimd Re umique fixed amok ow Me % % Oo % % Lf OO n Ye a= wy emolk¥ix (ead given by, OR uns % va oo oe % Os “xt hye Ke wo get ont Bye Kr = x7 Yow tge $04 +02 7V— yer Pn eeo aos oz weet gs 2=F O° Let (x Ye be ow vedF Probability ¢ de vequion shrochastie | such ek worsrye ents Re v0 % % |= (wri?) ba © 5O cor Qe soe wr ys Baie ex <1 % ax =1 Dees ey @6® wee HY wake he a) erent Mantz oon =a gore sub ten © hg tye g at est creat a wr aye i-% wy arte % w= %- > BY (asx D7 C2? Yo 2 Yes Ye) 5 P| Show deat “HRe enakyix “# Ge regulon ebro chontie rene alse fienck unique xed. probability ees | Cee EeCR r oea eaten’: l| © Oe | >| p= ote a 7 o ot ofhis) eayae | eto a ° nA ell gepee re? w% wo oo! \F ow) ln %%\SUES CU RENO 3 Pas, setae “The matsix eohich Ce te kmoum 0» stochastic a He peebab iis, Re which 1s a sqtuane matrix we presowl mg Re : | bromiton probauives! of cece process. Monkov chain B Morrow model is a shodasS< » describing a seqtunce { possible vents im which | Probabiiity q each vents depends only on +e stote attained Im (Re [Zreviows went ry a 4 Sy Seated meee Let "Pp be te tramition probability” Perea oi ms Nejen Jmonkov chaim with Re probabilities / Py vars ts cotledl chonges from a; 1 Re | gtobe aj. G39). ithe pscbatbilites Rot Re system chornges from or We a cecea feaq tiny pes] stces) = denoted, by PS ¢ es pts cafted Re matrix formed by Re probab’ § is denoted by Pl & te § mn’ skep twomition coo tix: imikol peobabilittes fe defined a» follows? p= pi p ps pope Wa 2p le x c PO. po Bt SI de SBA ony ‘ = pMp NOT en probability matrx denoted by py=| Pr RR Pel | 1 Ale, eee Peek. - -- Pr) rhe imitiol probability distribukion § Its Process Is denoted by © 1; [OF oh [F hers— eg ero celta SY ae seakeu chain aw ques a PEl)% HM) alth Re tmital raed ty “ distribAion PRE y, ‘i 4 ) oe) re) e102? Find de following! Dy De pp v Pe ie 7 “Toate g ; : Ue lee)" i, PO.% sPAs PIP DPO= 2%, o[% alla 1. = Pe %] = [Fe po matrix 4 Oo cmoankov dhisteibidion que bY Pn! Se BD) the transition probability chain 7 given’ ri © % |) € imtol probability‘ 10° Loe Pon ee is 2. YR i ete) Mind Po yee rea P| es pe pe Seal aioe 13 ¥ | wie 1 Oo 6 + Pa NE NU) 8 1, a | A949 7 Cot ED Yoo Ye \> | a? RP ne cies atc pin Tek pal S ple pp or, DPR % OD PpP2%' dpe i ey DRY py Soni als a Yo Ve Ne The tramsiten probability mmabsix a “omankov chan Ph: 2 eae trreductble Ren shoes Hoek Re vedd" is Ao # a=a—V—" 4 to J Re probability vets. P| caveductble cmeorn ARE given’ mori = thoutd be iim the {am 4 dias stzochastic modtrix reg ; i | preffe wv %)[>o % Aw % 0 Hil no Mal wm We % | | Va Yo le » “ “Ue era)J we ws five. fo TE Pil Re | emt tes 4 probability amortyie Ts) MOM — NEG oe es etrochostic mabyix - Bee xd ye be a vedD, such Hok MTG = RO % 0 Ye = Os fs D gal Ay matrix te given be % “we ae % BWRds ah = = 8% %~ = ¢ bea aay,’ aa fp ue 927 Ye PUL aE ord az Dax tay> & xepeerle ar Gey, eds CO pia Ya) | 1 oi ae ee ares nnehs We a» Yellows» F4 he studies | Poi) cee an et ra | ene might 2 be ye 307, Sune deady Renee night « he elmer homo Hf he dost sbudy onc wiglf > he ekohme®, é va steady @ Re next mugs Find the yomnthen emod rie a fa the choin his study* Dl At studgR Binet study 16 race | p= a [oa oa) orev! | p ledod otreet pie ht le ra Peete cfe is ti ity A ted ring Aoniglty he bey et studing Aenight, he ho» ateadred previous roaght = OF ‘ the trom od. the previa hos stad Bee ra reat vaee Ra > proper! RB, > prebabaily df stdrng Amigidts he ho» mo ability 4 mot stadying Amigtt» be Saeed pre to ere | daun mmobrix§ {Re dhol fo study 1 Pp x Je atuadied Re preniees miterort P,, > ero? Accosdindy Re tzonsh Bemis o-+| [mt 3% o 62) GU Coa sia “leg sa “ Funthes, we mech 1 find fixed prebobility ved® given , | tremsition onokrix,Let Cy) be a ved® such heb 397! § mmathix 1 given by I oT (gr %o %e\_ 5 i} : vein | } Hox + ty ax 2 Yor %oy= 45 | xeyel OoD= Cys: OP] & software emgfneer We He ever goes by >) Die hie eoered ue ewes ydoy by « o. bike onde? comscgative bike & com den he hes ef wrimd Re ple Ne yee coe | Wyely 42 ie Ne) vaes. Ty 6225 4pe prebabt yak S Ae ye P® Spon lowe (8 TR) Va ea apo s/* | ee Me) Ue = Pern #\po, \_ a i iE) [% gheeroe ath epo ee et fice? \ ie ule a | (y wh Ara a >. Ppt [o i) . is | B= probability 4 using BEE on a cag. given Back bike fos. bean toed compton: previ | | fa = Probablily 4 wing eon on a day aia Hak Bike os beam Weck on Be pre rbabilily 4 aly bike on day tune teat cons used en WE Preto dag | Fas ~ Pyelveb ik fe: J Free stG 4 est tan on a cay, ahem od bike 1 cred on te, pre tom Res dy 4 Be prebabitty 4 ung Be bike is, H=%) the Prababilety fesity Oy cami Pa "Yi,ven, by ji j 12 & man esoelng habit ar ({ollows? he sameks filter y ee e ea week, he switches +o mom dlken cignbehtt cathe meet coed tes fpreeabilitya oats We cy hand, if he sense imome sjltay chyandte Task. Reve [is a pebatnsihy fom gab be wth Swrkces | mon fiter spondte in ment week o tae ee ery ven how often does ds smoke fe filter clganette, j\eex ¢f eqorette igemeks ng! Bi bemersmoking snon=()\ter agence os etic ol, | |RE A roe “75| ae 3 eee 0340.95) Po fies ca)[oe aa] ot meeepore cero. hirer" |i BC iaug | j me = [Ho He m Ke san, | ‘ “4 aes Mwah ay such Had ety 8 ecbeaat JS Lek Gry) be the probabil? oofr <0 | oeex 1 O34 =< oan + ety? Y oa @%) m He often vase He Gute dyendbe | ome = 997. Myhsec boys HBS Ne ARoowin 9 path fo each ether such ieee ball +2 B. § G obways Hao bod 49 Cy © jwk Se a Haows Nikely to taow Ke Meal ph aa) Che fesee 7 cH onS became Airs boll {ime [the probability Hod after “a | Persen +2 tRnow the : % > He ihc hos Re ‘bail gs nee ffnows DF pos dee ball §) Ble He bald ie Teoh % y eee sinely cory fol ° | | : vue Teepe ec p= ppm a te bo taBy atl olf 3 ve). fee aan ae Rs 92 al 0 | |) aon : % dn 0) (hon Jer ame ae Pe cone. yo" gemblers. luck foliose & pabterons {he cme Be qomes fe onert aerme fie 0.6. However he viewing the Hees) i Hie mere] ome looses fre qume » the probability 4— | je Ord seThese, sam) [even chonc® 4 gambler winioiny se first | genet so) what » Re probability witrming 8h send. ea DP whek Bb Ae probability { eiwning Be'x gone Ton Re long ren hes often he will win a hentty tense tseteym =O 4] 7 P= ol Ore OM - Prafoe onlfos a Wye Laas als = (% za) cprabebillG { ainning fhe ome Kon | pra pm Ms |[os om| 5 |)s0 ae . Ke plos ot "Yoco “hos 3 y, A) ea fitel le el | “ gles ote gz probability 4 Iwicamg He game * Koos Let Goy) be Re ved® sud Hob x4 ©) Ps Ge) Swabon es Cm ee fdRe A «| oe ey-C% » VD 230 soiles—omam teuritory comsists:4/ S cites 0,8 gc he mwer sell ts He samme city on, He successive days. z{ he ey) Geman ee Bos met) Re next Ot he sells im city B! | The sel im BD c, Ren Re next js twice ask. key to sell im fo ky A, o> Man oiler seities = Me OUmmrc ach Ae are) ody Jong, san hows often does ope oF, bho, . 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Ire- S}E y2pfree o . ‘ 4 1 Mert 3 i sea eu lbiod = By monk og i a. Goabxt yr eras gel ee ax @nc-d)y + {tg eg tH es oh. oe ae cara eh X-ax ~ba rege ezam Senos zaxibx ---@© ee diana aca ze ass fe > cys dy axr{z> Cor Dy be dy +z ~ez-fz>2 | par dys ez dz bed) = Cert) Epon zs bardy es eqee2 44 : ath 4 etd e+{ Cay ececde, % +bh pac, ad+od+be] x KK ar city vet re b laa Re. bred probability ved? - {