Hypothesis Testing -

Notes

UGC NET Paper 1

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Hypothesis

It is an assumption or proposition whose tenability (capability of being justified) is to be tested

on the basis of its implications with empirical evidence and with previous knowledge. It is the
presumptive statement of a proposition or a reasonable guess, based upon the available
evidence, which the researcher seeks to prove through his/her study.

According to Van Dalen “A hypothesis serves as a powerful beacon that lights the way for the
research worker.” Hence, setting a hypothesis when we start our Research is extremely
necessary, as it provides the direction and objective of our research project.

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a precise, testable statement of what the researcher(s)

predict will be the outcome of the study.

Characteristics of Good Hypothesis

It must be testable.
It must state the expected relationship between the variables.
It must be clear and stated in a precise manner.
The Hypothesis should be limited in scope.
A hypothesis must be consistent with known facts. It must be consistent with a
substantial body of established facts.
The Hypothesis should be amenable to testing within a reasonable time.
It should be future-oriented that it should have the ability to predict future events.

Types of Research Hypotheses

Alternative Hypothesis(Also known as Research Hypothesis)

The alternative hypothesis states that there is a relationship between the two variables being
studied (one variable has an effect on the other).
It states that the results are not due to chance and that they are significant in terms of
supporting the theory being investigated.
The symbolic form of the Alternate hypothesis must use one of these symbols <,>, ≠
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship between the two variables being
studied (one variable does not affect the other).
It states results are due to chance and are not significant in terms of supporting the idea being
investigated.

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In short:
A null hypothesis (Ho) is such an assumption statement with “no effect” or “no difference” or
“no change”.

We test the Null hypothesis directly.

We can either “reject” or “fail to reject” our assumptions made after the test.

Example:

In a clinical test, the new drug is determined to test again an existing drug.

Ho: “there is no difference between the two drugs on average”.

H1: “the two drugs have different effects, on average”.

Q. ‘Women are better teacher then men’.

Which among the following is above statement related to?

A. Null hypothesis B. Alternate hypothesis.

C. Can’t be determined. D. Both A and B

Q. Given below are two statements

Statement I: a research hypothesis is a tentative statement postulating a relationship between

factual and conceptual elements of the variables

Statement II: a researcher sets up a ‘Null hypothesis’ so that the deduced consequences of a
research hypothesis may be directly tested

In light of the above statements, choose the correct answer from the options given below

A. both Statement I and Statement II are true

B. both Statement I and Statement II are false

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C. Statement I is correct but Statement II is false

D. Statement I is incorrect but Statement II is true

Nondirectional Hypothesis

A two-tailed non-directional hypothesis predicts that the independent variable will have an
effect on the dependent variable, but the direction of the effect is not specified.

E.g., there will be a difference in how many numbers are correctly recalled by children and
adults.

Directional Hypothesis

A one-tailed directional hypothesis predicts the nature of the effect of the independent
variable on the dependent variable.

E.g., adults will correctly recall more words than children.

Examples of a Hypothesis:

Let’s consider a hypothesis that many teachers might subscribe to: that students work better
on Monday morning than they do on a Friday afternoon (IV=Day, DV=Standard of work).
Now, if we decide to study this by giving the same group of students a lesson on a Monday
morning and on a Friday afternoon and then measuring their immediate recall on the material
covered in each session we would end up with the following:

The alternative hypothesis states that students will recall significantly more information
on a Monday morning than on a Friday afternoon.
The null hypothesis states that there will be no significant difference in the amount
recalled on a Monday morning compared to a Friday afternoon. Any difference will be
due to chance.

The null hypothesis is, therefore, the opposite of the alternative hypothesis in that it states
that there will be no change in behaviour.
MAKING A DECISION: TYPES OF ERRORS

Most of the time we believe that our decisions are correct while testing a hypothesis.
Sometimes the decisions may get to the wrong side. Thus, there are two possibilities of such
decision errors.

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Retaining the null hypothesis decision may fall into correct or incorrect regions. A null result or
null finding occurs when the decision is to retain a true null hypothesis. Here our assumptions,
as well as test, are correct. The incorrect decision retains the false null hypothesis, which is an
example of Type II error (False Negative).

When we reject a null hypothesis, it can be correct or incorrect. The incorrect decision to reject
a true null hypothesis is an example of a Type I error (False positive). That is, Type I error is the
probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis and type II error is the probability of accepting a
false null hypothesis.

A “Negative” is a Decision in favour of the Null Hypothesis.

A “Positive” is a Decision in favour of an Alternate Hypothesis.

Type I error is considered more serious than Type II, and therefore the probability of Type I
error known as significance level is decided by the researcher while testing the hypothesis.

Two-tailed Test

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Right-tailed Test

Left-tailed Test

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System for statistical Analysis

Steps In Hypothesis Testing:

Set up Null and Alternate Hypothesis

Set up Level of Significance
Decide which test to use
Find out the table value of the test
Find out the value
Decision
If computed value<=Table value= Accept the null hypothesis
If computed value>Table Value= Reject the null hypothesis

Decision Criterion

Traditional method:

Reject Ho if the test statistic falls within the critical region.

Fail to reject Ho if the test statistic does not fall within the critical region.
P-value method:
Reject H0 if the P-values ≤ α (where α is the significance level, such as 0.05).
Fail to reject H0 if the P-value > α

P-Value:

P Values calculated probability. Measures reliability or consistency of results

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It's good science to let people know if your study results are solid, or if they could have
happened by chance.
If alpha (significance level) is given then
Reject if P-value is less than alpha or equal to alpha
A p-value is used in hypothesis testing to help you support or reject the null hypothesis. The p-
value is the evidence against a null hypothesis. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the
evidence that you should reject the null hypothesis.
P values are expressed as decimals although it may be easier to understand what they are if
you convert them to a percentage. For example, a p-value of 0.0254 Is 2.54%. This means there
is a 2.54% chance your results could be random (i.e. happened by chance). That's pretty tiny.
On the other hand, a large p-value of .9(90%) means your results have a 90% probability of
being completely random and not due to anything in your experiment. Therefore, the smaller
the p-value, the more important ("significant") your results.
P-Value vs Alpha level
For example, let's say you chose an alpha level of 5% (0.05). If the results from the test give you:
A small p (≤ 0.05), reject the null hypothesis. This is strong evidence that the null hypothesis is
invalid.
A large p (>0.05) means the alternate hypothesis is weak, so you do not reject the null.
Question: Setting the p level at 0.01 increases the chances of making a:
a) Type I error
b) Type ll error
c) Type Ill error
d) All of the above
What is Statistical Significance?
In Statistics, “significance” means “not by chance” or “probably true”. We can say that if a
statistician declares that some result is “highly significant”, then he indicates by stating that it
might be very probably true. It suggests that it is highly probable.
Level of Significance Definition
The level of significance is defined as the fixed probability of wrong elimination of null
hypothesis when in fact, it is true. The level of significance is stated to be the probability of
type I error and is pre-set by the researcher with the outcomes of error. The level of

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significance is the measurement of the statistical significance. It defines whether the null
hypothesis is assumed to be accepted or rejected. It is expected to identify if the result is
statistically significant for the null hypothesis to be false or rejected.
Level of Significance Symbol
The level of significance is denoted by the Greek symbol α (alpha). Therefore, the level of
significance is defined as follows:
Significance Level = p (type I error) = α
The values or the observations are less likely when they are farther than the mean. The results
are written as “significant at x%”.
Example: The value significant at 5% refers to p-value is less than 0.05 or p < 0.05. Similarly,
significance at 1% means that the p-value is less than 0.01.
The level of significance is taken at 0.05 or 5%. When the p-value is low, it means that the
recognised values are significantly different from the population value that was hypothesised
in the beginning. The p-value is said to be more significant if it is as low as possible. Also, the
result would be highly significant if the p-value is very less. But, most generally, p-values
smaller than 0.05 are known as significant, since getting a p-value less than 0.05 is quite less
practice.
How to Find the Level of Significance?
To measure the level of statistical significance of the result, the investigator first needs to
calculate the p-value. It defines the probability of identifying an effect that provides that the
null hypothesis is true. When the p-value is less than the level of significance (α), the null
hypothesis is rejected. If the p-value so observed is not less than the significance level α, then
theoretically null hypothesis is accepted. But practically, we often increase the size of the
sample size and check if we reach the significance level.
Level of Significance Example
If we obtain a p-value equal to 0.03, then it indicates that there are just 3% chances of getting a
difference larger than that in our research, given that the null hypothesis exists. Now, we need
to determine if this result is statistically significant enough.
We know that if the chances are 5% or less than that, then the null hypothesis is true, and we
will tend to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Here, in this case,
the chances are 0.03, i.e. 3% (less than 5%), which eventually means that we will eliminate our
null hypothesis and will accept an alternative hypothesis.

Parametric Test Definition: In Statistics, a parametric test is a kind of the hypothesis test
which gives generalizations for generating records regarding the mean of the
primary/original population.
Non-Parametric Test Definition: The non-parametric test does not require any
population distribution, which is meant by distinct parameters. This kind of test is also

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called a distribution-free test. The test variables are determined on the nominal or ordinal
level. If the independent variables are non-metric, the non-parametric test is usually
performed.

What is the Difference Between Parametric And Non-parametric?

The key differences between nonparametric and parametric tests are listed below based on
certain parameters or properties.

Properties Parametric Non-parametric

Assumptions Yes No

central tendency Value Mean value Median value

Correlation Pearson Spearman

Probabilistic Normal Arbitrary

distribution

Population knowledge Requires Does not require

Used for Interval data Nominal data

Applicability Variables Attributes & Variables

Examples z-test, t-test, etc. Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-

Whitney

What is the benefit of using a nonparametric test?

A nonparametric test does not depend on any distribution, hence it is a kind of robust test and
has a broader range of situations.
What is the benefit of using a parametric test?
The parametric test is completely dependent on statistical data and has more chances of
accuracy.

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