Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model for OBDC
1. Project Free Cash Flows (FCF):
FCF_t = Revenue_t * Operating Margin_t * (1 - Tax Rate) - CapEx_t + Depreciation_t - Change in Working
Capital_t
For OBDC, the initial FCF is $310.59 million. This FCF can be projected into the future using a growth rate (g).
2. Discount Rate (WACC):
WACC = (E/V) * r_e + (D/V) * r_d * (1 - T)
Where:
E = Market value of equity
D = Market value of debt
V = E + D (Total firm value)
r_e = Cost of equity (can be estimated using CAPM)
r_d = Cost of debt (interest rate on debt)
T = Corporate tax rate
3. Terminal Value:
TV = FCF_n * (1 + g) / (WACC - g)
Where:
FCF_n = Free Cash Flow in the final projected year
g = Perpetual growth rate beyond the projection period
Assumptions for OBDC:
- Revenue Growth Rate: Based on historical data, around 21.94% YoY.
- Operating Margin: Consistently high around 76.34%.
- WACC: Estimated at around 8-10%, considering the company's capital structure.
- Terminal Growth Rate: Assumed to be around 2-3%.