A table of 500 random numbers found with RAND() function 0.7004 0.

8357
Note: These are formatted to show only 4 decimal places. 0.8357

0.9136 0.2755 0.1805 0.1405 0.0867 0.7659 0.6588 0.1285 0.6963 0.2222
0.1121 0.7255 0.1730 0.0091 0.7156 0.9751 0.6253 0.5746 0.5549 0.7408
0.3934 0.9741 0.7940 0.4066 0.4185 0.6744 0.7429 0.8323 0.0117 0.6145
0.4645 0.9649 0.0713 0.5691 0.4645 0.9105 0.1289 0.6215 0.7318 0.2173
0.0713 0.9106 0.5129 0.6869 0.9783 0.3052 0.4926 0.6206 0.7911 0.3208
0.3914 0.0306 0.2954 0.4027 0.0514 0.5459 0.1231 0.4809 0.0413 0.2197
0.4687 0.6401 0.1517 0.2652 0.3502 0.9158 0.5900 0.4219 0.5983 0.3516
0.4387 0.7999 0.7894 0.3027 0.1172 0.5626 0.2972 0.6895 0.8557 0.3402
0.9251 0.1345 0.7897 0.8565 0.8620 0.9102 0.3308 0.3789 0.0481 0.1330
0.7741 0.7471 0.0428 0.7433 0.1418 0.7337 0.9159 0.7904 0.1474 0.5629
0.5445 0.5031 0.2984 0.6409 0.2114 0.3917 0.3099 0.3274 0.9825 0.6177
0.1618 0.2349 0.2268 0.3741 0.8771 0.1627 0.8704 0.1508 0.5705 0.0707
0.0162 0.2800 0.2370 0.0309 0.0866 0.0484 0.8064 0.6992 0.6635 0.5258
0.0311 0.6804 0.8359 0.3832 0.5595 0.3665 0.4484 0.9416 0.9987 0.1788
0.5529 0.5285 0.3825 0.2381 0.5882 0.7927 0.8180 0.2312 0.3108 0.6179
0.6760 0.1003 0.1402 0.9966 0.0407 0.8021 0.2284 0.5899 0.1312 0.3791
0.4420 0.4735 0.8340 0.8013 0.9980 0.2721 0.1701 0.4982 0.2566 0.7667
0.0637 0.4587 0.5786 0.9144 0.6991 0.5818 0.5782 0.6840 0.2583 0.6916
0.6088 0.6596 0.3051 0.6495 0.1878 0.8027 0.3071 0.6043 0.8239 0.8260
0.8037 0.3027 0.0466 0.9253 0.8449 0.8689 0.0951 0.8835 0.4499 0.4407
0.5297 0.5652 0.5362 0.8675 0.5574 0.1310 0.2979 0.4302 0.5200 0.9951
0.6921 0.5310 0.9967 0.3444 0.1750 0.9580 0.4377 0.3630 0.8301 0.1981
0.3503 0.0512 0.1189 0.2992 0.5138 0.8663 0.7003 0.7052 0.9399 0.3840
0.3877 0.5293 0.3250 0.3692 0.6136 0.1774 0.3150 0.2110 0.6222 0.0576
0.8387 0.0693 0.6129 0.6429 0.7931 0.4786 0.8668 0.4324 0.2609 0.3376
0.3593 0.6299 0.5753 0.8888 0.3843 0.7486 0.0150 0.2913 0.5478 0.3762
0.1403 0.2814 0.0244 0.5831 0.8825 0.3240 0.1611 0.1492 0.1325 0.0478
0.9356 0.0749 0.2043 0.3362 0.4331 0.5949 0.6102 0.3768 0.4968 0.7429
0.8154 0.8745 0.4444 0.0811 0.2524 0.6581 0.1542 0.8202 0.1710 0.5670
0.1026 0.3597 0.3229 0.3789 0.3731 0.0169 0.8756 0.6121 0.7921 0.9712
0.6253 0.3704 0.2596 0.5540 0.9347 0.5129 0.1593 0.8744 0.0502 0.9450
0.5163 0.1648 0.3963 0.7039 0.2511 0.8262 0.2154 0.3940 0.7442 0.1151
0.3051 0.3961 0.3236 0.5268 0.8061 0.0008 0.0489 0.6830 0.9558 0.5370
0.0551 0.1428 0.3164 0.8192 0.4349 0.5409 0.4178 0.5275 0.0229 0.5810
0.9272 0.5685 0.3734 0.3040 0.8199 0.3659 0.1877 0.7754 0.6344 0.1039
0.5835 0.9892 0.8813 0.8241 0.5477 0.4145 0.7916 0.5165 0.4139 0.0169
0.2196 0.4923 0.1446 0.9581 0.5310 0.5016 0.2684 0.9163 0.5396 0.8540
0.4964 0.4196 0.7339 0.0687 0.0734 0.4107 0.0346 0.0312 0.9883 0.1322
0.0900 0.8918 0.6035 0.7740 0.5147 0.2476 0.2693 0.6709 0.7267 0.7016
0.4402 0.0129 0.5502 0.3769 0.7197 0.7994 0.9441 0.7059 0.3290 0.7211
0.1649 0.2466 0.6313 0.6189 0.7985 0.8424 0.7673 0.5339 0.1225 0.6398
0.9110 0.7096 0.0934 0.6226 0.6128 0.2124 0.2969 0.2086 0.5809 0.2749
0.9062 0.9033 0.9503 0.5424 0.0157 0.2881 0.8064 0.5991 0.6203 0.6805
0.1518 0.1011 0.3753 0.8053 0.7973 0.2432 0.5613 0.4503 0.9506 0.0819
0.8847 0.4055 0.7650 0.9973 0.9558 0.6678 0.5359 0.4887 0.3063 0.2480
0.4654 0.9841 0.7702 0.0075 0.0145 0.6283 0.1915 0.9712 0.6334 0.0794
0.7489 0.6797 0.1499 0.6537 0.3645 0.9754 0.0679 0.4281 0.3876 0.5363
0.1934 0.6508 0.6519 0.0204 0.7462 0.9216 0.8662 0.9300 0.5220 0.8447
0.4810 0.2693 0.5909 0.5172 0.7521 0.2289 0.0349 0.4903 0.8372 0.6001
0.4782 0.1943 0.1873 0.0062 0.0214 0.9804 0.5741 0.1949 0.5155 0.0781
 Each value is a separate result of the RAND function. They are "live" and
change everytime you do something on the spreadsheet - try pressing the
F9 key.

Distribution of random numbers

Value Frequency Frequency
0.1 53 70
0.2 52
0.3 44 60
0.4 57
50
0.5 41
0.6 63 40
0.7 53
0.8 45 30
0.9 46
>0.9 46 20

10
Upper limit frequency
0.1 53 0
0.2000 52 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0
0.3 44
0.4000 57
0.5 41
0.6000 63
0.7 53
0.8000 137
0.9
 Frequency

3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 >0.9

A table of 500 random numbers found with RAND() function
Note: These are formatted to show only 4 decimal places.

0.5558 0.7386 0.2158 0.7828 0.9125 0.4647 0.5400 0.5547 0.9852

0.3172 0.8423 0.0608 0.0061 0.3121 0.7327 0.5601 0.6570 0.8034
0.8457 0.3141 0.7822 0.8250 0.6595 0.2309 0.5684 0.8600 0.6865
0.6671 0.4252 0.7438 0.4245 0.7786 0.3426 0.5513 0.5290 0.1913
0.2742 0.4268 0.4008 0.1563 0.0543 0.4202 0.9071 0.5245 0.0616
0.4967 0.2462 0.7547 0.4497 0.0696 0.0199 0.5369 0.0067 0.3764
0.5671 0.3155 0.1373 0.0328 0.0853 0.9787 0.7430 0.6168 0.9553
0.3685 0.6201 0.1673 0.9495 0.8967 0.4000 0.5042 0.7269 0.8255
0.8562 0.4419 0.4447 0.5723 0.0272 0.3392 0.8368 0.3798 0.0077
0.7173 0.5110 0.3862 0.1082 0.8260 0.4368 0.2991 0.3974 0.0501
0.7080 0.9909 0.6357 0.3305 0.9380 0.3682 0.6648 0.3722 0.7111
0.8452 0.2709 0.0732 0.4498 0.9421 0.1572 0.9697 0.7037 0.2606
0.2708 0.5700 0.5952 0.4579 0.2023 0.8449 0.7732 0.9730 0.1221
0.7229 0.5073 0.6140 0.4621 0.5607 0.2131 0.9475 0.7991 0.6836
0.3903 0.5702 0.2053 0.1718 0.9130 0.5117 0.4601 0.2564 0.5132
0.7797 0.5314 0.7655 0.8136 0.7693 0.6317 0.2139 0.0906 0.7376
0.8711 0.3018 0.2546 0.4460 0.7104 0.5837 0.7983 0.1756 0.5422
0.7938 0.0859 0.6987 0.0229 0.6306 0.4534 0.0331 0.0627 0.1113
0.1295 0.6161 0.8238 0.2924 0.7923 0.3926 0.6087 0.1109 0.9418
0.4388 0.4462 0.6206 0.8116 0.3850 0.7579 0.7682 0.3613 0.3153
0.5417 0.7200 0.4884 0.5555 0.8039 0.3833 0.8615 0.5144 0.5085
0.4481 0.0112 0.9458 0.4682 0.9822 0.2420 0.7851 0.6096 0.2626
0.6672 0.0615 0.1355 0.5948 0.6086 0.3416 0.3057 0.3971 0.0265
0.5171 0.3310 0.3266 0.7808 0.1450 0.3559 0.6543 0.9468 0.6140
0.7869 0.4035 0.4505 0.3937 0.8650 0.7273 0.0130 0.8469 0.8098
0.6477 0.2020 0.9710 0.5614 0.9547 0.0528 0.0332 0.8752 0.0728
0.4893 0.8746 0.7965 0.4929 0.0462 0.8674 0.0889 0.2343 0.7109
0.7171 0.1702 0.4641 0.8259 0.2254 0.4682 0.0354 0.7882 0.1512
0.4265 0.2291 0.7068 0.3588 0.9807 0.6245 0.7485 0.1384 0.9370
0.9358 0.2526 0.9411 0.4360 0.0619 0.3207 0.0300 0.0351 0.4698
0.1795 0.5137 0.1055 0.6987 0.8279 0.0822 0.6874 0.9259 0.2488
0.3026 0.0314 0.7113 0.1299 0.0005 0.5509 0.9958 0.8317 0.8010
0.1562 0.2175 0.0468 0.1812 0.1587 0.8824 0.1176 0.5955 0.5814
0.6476 0.2135 0.5516 0.9754 0.9588 0.2271 0.3365 0.8394 0.7561
0.3537 0.8328 0.4952 0.5502 0.6712 0.1296 0.2007 0.3162 0.4621
0.1154 0.0656 0.4596 0.1442 0.5531 0.3513 0.0257 0.6644 0.9425
0.7390 0.0558 0.0559 0.2005 0.6411 0.8021 0.6236 0.1995 0.1970
0.9287 0.3512 0.6149 0.7843 0.8786 0.9541 0.7353 0.2735 0.7618
0.3032 0.6734 0.2498 0.5378 0.4311 0.1523 0.9163 0.3247 0.6236
0.2419 0.5861 0.8911 0.9378 0.7248 0.1085 0.0296 0.0162 0.2558
0.4660 0.2437 0.6244 0.4835 0.1599 0.8383 0.9127 0.8283 0.3656
0.0995 0.9041 0.6439 0.5581 0.8981 0.0082 0.7047 0.9724 0.2433
0.0721 0.2280 0.7984 0.2175 0.1909 0.4013 0.6441 0.2478 0.9756
0.0835 0.1006 0.4077 0.5738 0.5141 0.5747 0.8201 0.8430 0.9301
0.4924 0.7937 0.5405 0.4456 0.1902 0.6453 0.8047 0.7339 0.1123
0.0743 0.7707 0.1086 0.9788 0.4442 0.0363 0.6776 0.4903 0.9342
0.8815 0.7628 0.2793 0.1100 0.0129 0.8608 0.4609 0.3324 0.4364
0.2693 0.5246 0.9930 0.4107 0.2523 0.3280 0.2067 0.9772 0.0276
0.2898 0.1156 0.3258 0.4457 0.3765 0.3491 0.3460 0.1505 0.5153
0.7449 0.0584 0.7498 0.7325 0.6644 0.9725 0.0100 0.8379 0.0099
0.9638
0.3410
0.9834
0.1892
0.2361
0.5687
0.8392
0.3376
0.3431
0.8633
0.2809
0.1298
0.0188
0.7030
0.6971
0.8470
0.7754
0.3517
0.2370
0.6247
0.6390
0.3769
0.0229
0.6527
0.6001
0.7987
0.0601
0.6658
0.4410
0.0090
0.5465
0.5149
0.4792
0.2018
0.4725
0.9639
0.2601
0.1034
0.6911
0.3831
0.2355
0.3481
0.1660
0.4978
0.0467
0.4687
0.9452
0.2882
0.9861
0.3072
 Cumulative Lower limit of random
Demand for cakes Probability Distribution number interval
4 0.12 0.12 0
5 0.10 0.22 0.12
6 0.18 0.4 0.22
7 0.24 0.64 0.4
8 0.16 0.8 0.64
9 0.14 0.94 0.8
10 0.06 1 0.94

Random number = 0.2653260714

Simulated demand= 6
Upper limit of random 1
number interval 10
0.12 0.94
0.22 9
0.8
0.4
0.64 8
0.8 0.64
0.94
1 7
0.4
6
0.22
5
0.12
4
0
 Upper limit of random
Lower limit of random number interval
Probability number interval (Cumulative Prob.) Demand for cakes
0.12 0 0.12 4
0.1 0.12 0.22 5
0.18 0.22 0.4 6
0.24 0.4 0.64 7
0.16 0.64 0.8 8
0.14 0.8 0.94 9
0.06 0.94 1 10

Random number = 0.739

Simulated demand= 8
 1
10
0.94
9
0.8
8
0.64

7
0.4
6
0.22
5
0.12
4
0
Decision n/a

Output
Average demand 7.33333333333333
Average profit 715
Average donation 0.5
Average # of customers who face out-of-stock 0.625
Probability of being out-of-stock in a day 0.3

SIMULATION

Simulated Demand
Day Random # (using Lookup) ** Profit
1 0.770618567649048 8 840
2 0.90028853995887 9 840
3 0.81196850980415 9 840
4 0.144782281520437 5 340
5 0.560504883710354 7 840
6 0.504240414688301 7 840
7 0.452556195627354 7 840
8 0.320070426648976 6 590
9 0.319077584432119 6 590
10 0.211236419622111 5 340
11 0.703626557644645 8 840
12 0.5091931953628 7 840
13 0.434705249698077 7
14 0.20251395160852 5
15 0.346692135631657 6
16 0.967560134260081 10
17 0.992548589502494 10
18 0.97876345355014 10
19 0.745903377200334 8
20 0.763783422038379 8
21 0.369514939524701 6
22 0.66012125590899
23 0.59660493588852
24 0.451593188860485
25 0.617665026401114
26 0.601675438885489
27 0.487373441291411
28 0.230531144577545
29 0.645288540432761
30 0.248726296078599
31 0.115014593247284
32 0.279091714454714
33 0.108522983486418
34 0.727028428074494
35 0.344534337702994
36 0.927299131166744
37 0.0332762021743586
38 0.107990165966953
39 0.959327289411393
40 0.948076648228439
41 0.133476919729246
42 0.982570506607059
43 0.284090702119914
44 0.808238276300768
45 0.821868300670428
46 0.76843620463428
47 0.169805850808865
48 0.261154956751254
49 0.70199125456257
50 0.0503024399786573
51 0.505902343338705
52 0.834788528978806
53 0.954137179664626
54 0.229636474276716
55 0.135502294516633
56 0.397648108719575
57 0.499005642589802
58 0.401038558409346
59 0.500691328024057
60 0.116798573139967
61 0.150082657636131
62 0.747332131660163
63 0.505780450714997
64 0.0199402077240501
65 0.465860761364353
66 0.905872689329051
67 0.385857005030484
68 0.569933955841306
69 0.601106020245008
70 0.17815484819849
71 0.505471778402103
72 0.327220482341307
73 0.0310445947096385
74 0.51291051884464
75 0.0830173212143964
76 0.199459544920349
 77 0.00422045846900458
78 0.75869578140911
79 0.986395048028599
80 0.862122464880533
81 0.424758866278198
82 0.135500076673839
83 0.538133027754818
84 0.506217522567211
85 0.363322482471021
86 0.0379871521080377
87 0.137172310278011
88 0.358478120192949
89 0.429763445903036
90 0.814524542979258
91 0.498335746631333
92 0.72027905786953
93 0.818216234449279
94 0.726148235878389
95 0.368568928297205
96 0.756957486244647
97 0.131647858683527
98 0.359940754190911
99 0.784264868366521
100 0.851607773485319
Data Parameters
Distribution
Upper limit of random
Lower limit of random number interval
Probability number interval (Cumulative Prob.)
0.12 0 0.12
0.1 0.12 0.22
0.18 0.22 0.4
0.24 0.4 0.64
0.16 0.64 0.8
0.14 0.8 0.94
0.06 0.94 1
Other inputs
Selling price per cake 250
Cost per cake 130
# of cakes purchased per day 7

# of days when we are

# of customers who face out-of-stock (1 = OUT OF
Donations out-of-stock STOCK)
0 1 1
0 2 1
0 2 1
2 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1 0 0
1 0
2 0
0
0
Demand for cakes
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Decision n/a

Output
Average demand 7.03
Average profit 670
Average donation 0.68
Average # of customers who face out-of-stock 0.71
Probability of being out-of-stock in a day 0.41

SIMULATION

Simulated Demand Simulated Demand (using

Day Random # (using Lookup) ** Vlookup) **
1 0.0749439994999087 4 4
2 0.285029552620616 6 6
3 0.841237405187332 9 9
4 0.106308748775664 4 4
5 0.968240487985999 10 10
6 0.329290410607968 6 6
7 0.659792347725251 8 8
8 0.341582813853925 6 6
9 0.464282419458113 7 7
10 0.18005238644438 5 5
11 0.504780270690361 7 7
12 0.924003333656332 9 9
13 0.831929819444633 9 9
14 0.858435146750203 9 9
15 0.836514763704372 9 9
16 0.795308623039314 8 8
17 0.397982940638943 6 6
18 0.775026173191841 8 8
19 0.0203150940185924 4 4
20 0.291022376821958 6 6
21 0.655299843205808 8 8
22 0.973422283646118 10 10
23 0.402943596407203 7 7
24 0.714994035514545 8 8
25 0.899344752272959 9 9
26 0.581501210260762 7 7
27 0.627674075601047 7 7
28 0.82459344345741 9 9
29 0.983484157648339 10 10
30 0.288786195265056 6 6
31 0.863417896166794 9 9
32 0.0145018847026029 4 4
33 0.684752613168338 8 8
34 0.420428338303447 7 7
35 0.337712807295115 6 6
36 0.868392924006145 9 9
37 0.109232732508322 4 4
38 0.35942739051315 6 6
39 0.68868935762091 8 8
40 0.00508403929608377 4 4
41 0.633164424295549 7 7
42 0.437320891541113 7 7
43 0.173853123717961 5 5
44 0.071737622466661 4 4
45 0.0943353331291568 4 4
46 0.159611226125585 5 5
47 0.785373552992485 8 8
48 0.966172175764031 10 10
49 0.681190822977763 8 8
50 0.725745781184137 8 8
51 0.936554773498425 9 9
52 0.127175029702112 5 5
53 0.879748600122762 9 9
54 0.389750163306212 6 6
55 0.429116927959895 7 7
56 0.862231484363836 9 9
57 0.656928774449993 8 8
58 0.833147959506256 9 9
59 0.756604040557405 8 8
60 0.654593290287218 8 8
61 0.624103533170705 7 7
62 0.203565990015553 5 5
63 0.0102072695810125 4 4
64 0.931377655461078 9 9
65 0.186511271566039 5 5
66 0.529672471437231 7 7
67 0.727112870196432 8 8
68 0.569183291198503 7 7
69 0.968522921802194 10 10
70 0.390022169659358 6 6
71 0.566092918449803 7 7
72 0.995154005791452 10 10
73 0.0750031442093597 4 4
74 0.225070295165404 6 6
75 0.0888676271426097 4 4
76 0.566876235393341 7 7
 77 0.777771395398736 8 8
78 0.862522222027853 9 9
79 0.0528594146854286 4 4
80 0.493379827539144 7 7
81 0.259427835722468 6 6
82 0.599115187448553 7 7
83 0.528290725896779 7 7
84 0.504048947246301 7 7
85 0.579504099597445 7 7
86 0.273549158496361 6 6
87 0.927593904316554 9 9
88 0.600908647870993 7 7
89 0.546007677039929 7 7
90 0.771159354090967 8 8
91 0.506537948605315 7 7
92 0.509645092176633 7 7
93 0.297820252947649 6 6
94 0.403359568427579 7 7
95 0.2193621638605 5 5
96 0.826145418279113 9 9
97 0.0147925338775496 4 4
98 0.37674805361313 6 6
99 0.763987375179515 8 8
100 0.815011861842146 9 9
Data Parameters
Distribution
Upper limit of random
Lower limit of random number interval
Probability number interval (Cumulative Prob.)
0.12 0 0.12
0.1 0.12 0.22
0.18 0.22 0.4
0.24 0.4 0.64
0.16 0.64 0.8
0.14 0.8 0.94
0.06 0.94 1
Other inputs
Selling price per cake 250
Cost per cake 130
# of cakes purchased per day 7

** You should NOT have both of these columns. Use EITHER Lookup or Vlookup, and
not both. I am ONLY demonstrating both formulas.

# of customers who face

Profit Donations out-of-stock
90 3 0
590 1 0
840 0 2
90 3 0
840 0 3
590 1 0
840 0 1
590 1 0
840 0 0
340 2 0
840 0 0
840 0 2
840 0 2
840 0 2
840 0 2
840 0 1
590 1 0
840 0 1
90 3 0
590 1 0
840 0 1
840 0 3
840 0 0
840 0 1
840 0 2
840 0 0
840 0 0
840 0 2
840 0 3
590 1 0
840 0 2
90 3 0
840 0 1
840 0 0
590 1 0
840 0 2
90 3 0
590 1 0
840 0 1
90 3 0
840 0 0
840 0 0
340 2 0
90 3 0
90 3 0
340 2 0
840 0 1
840 0 3
840 0 1
840 0 1
840 0 2
340 2 0
840 0 2
590 1 0
840 0 0
840 0 2
840 0 1
840 0 2
840 0 1
840 0 1
840 0 0
340 2 0
90 3 0
840 0 2
340 2 0
840 0 0
840 0 1
840 0 0
840 0 3
590 1 0
840 0 0
840 0 3
90 3 0
590 1 0
90 3 0
840 0 0
840 0 1
840 0 2
90 3 0
840 0 0
590 1 0
840 0 0
840 0 0
840 0 0
840 0 0
590 1 0
840 0 2
840 0 0
840 0 0
840 0 1
840 0 0
840 0 0
590 1 0
840 0 0
340 2 0
840 0 2
90 3 0
590 1 0
840 0 1
840 0 2
 Demand for cakes
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

olumns. Use EITHER Lookup or Vlookup, and

h formulas.

# of days when we are

out-of-stock (1 = OUT OF
STOCK)
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Q = 80 Q = 95 Q = 70 Q = 65
Changing Cells:
$B$1 80 80 80 70 65
Result Cells:
$B$3 114.44 105.62 114.77 106.17 104.84
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in grey.
Decision: Order size 80 Parameters
Revenue 5.00
Output: Average Profit 112.59 Cost 3.00
Scrap 0.50
Min demand 31.00
Max demand 150.00
E[Profits] under diff q
q 112.6
50 91.7
60 101.8
70 109.0
80 112.6
90 112.3
100 108.3
110 100.5

SIMULATION

Average Profit as a
Function of the
Newspaper Number of
Number of Trials Demand Art's Profit Observations
1 38 (29.00) 65.50
2 85 160.00 97.00
3 131 160.00 112.75
4 90 160.00 122.20
5 96 160.00 102.25
6 45 2.50 105.36
7 72 124.00 112.19
8 97 160.00 94.00
9 33 (51.50) 100.60
10 116 160.00 106.00
11 80 160.00 92.88
12 33 (51.50) 98.04
13 121 160.00 102.46
14 134 160.00 106.30
15 113 160.00 100.09
16 46 7.00 93.56
17 42 (11.00) 97.25
18 93 160.00 100.55
19 82 160.00 103.53
20 124 160.00 97.64
21 40 (20.00) 90.45
22 31 (60.50) 93.48
23 109 160.00 96.25
24 119 160.00 98.80
25 118 160.00 101.15
26 96 160.00 99.50
27 57 56.50 101.66
28 90 160.00 98.71
29 48 16.00 97.75
30 60 70.00 97.44
31 64 88.00 93.77
32 40 (20.00) 95.77
33 103 160.00 97.66
34 90 160.00 94.17
35 39 (24.50) 96.00
36 80 160.00 97.73
37 142 160.00 99.37
38 116 160.00 100.92
39 112 160.00 102.40
40 136 160.00 103.80
41 119 160.00 105.14
42 127 160.00 106.42
43 130 160.00 107.64
44 125 160.00 108.80
45 117 160.00 109.52
46 76 142.00 108.39
47 57 56.50 106.47
48 48 16.00 103.06
49 31 (60.50) 104.20
50 146 160.00 104.76
51 74 133.00 105.83
52 89 160.00 103.11
53 36 (38.00) 104.17
54 126 160.00 105.18
55 133 160.00 103.59
56 48 16.00 104.58
57 121 160.00 104.22
58 63 83.50 105.16
59 150 160.00 102.63
60 34 (47.00) 103.57
61 97 160.00 103.82
62 71 119.50 104.71
63 80 160.00 104.73
64 68 106.00 103.23
65 46 7.00 103.82
66 76 142.00 102.78
67 52 34.00 103.62
68 100 160.00 104.43
69 150 160.00 104.65
70 71 119.50 105.43
71 100 160.00 105.44
72 68 106.00 106.18
73 148 160.00 105.45
74 56 52.00 106.18
75 107 160.00 106.89
76 125 160.00 105.24
77 40 (20.00) 105.94
78 116 160.00 106.63
79 110 160.00 107.18
80 78 151.00 105.11
81 31 (60.50) 105.78
82 115 160.00 106.43
83 87 160.00 107.07
84 119 160.00 107.69
85 98 160.00 108.30
86 130 160.00 108.90
87 143 160.00 109.48
88 140 160.00 110.04
89 150 160.00 109.70
90 62 79.00 110.25
91 92 160.00 109.23
92 48 16.00 109.77
 93 143 160.00 110.31
94 112 160.00 110.83
95 130 160.00 110.97
96 72 124.00 111.47
97 92 160.00 111.97
98 142 160.00 112.45
99 80 160.00 112.93
100 130 160.00 113.40
101 120 160.00 113.85
102 124 160.00 114.30
103 84 160.00 112.71
104 33 (51.50) 113.16
105 116 160.00 113.60
106 89 160.00 114.03
107 96 160.00 114.46
108 116 160.00 112.89
109 32 (56.00) 112.71
110 65 92.50 113.14
111 135 160.00 112.87
112 63 83.50 113.29
113 139 160.00 113.46
114 74 133.00 113.87
115 97 160.00 112.56
116 36 (38.00) 112.96
117 103 160.00 112.14
118 48 16.00 112.54
119 101 160.00 112.94
120 133 160.00 112.84
121 67 101.50 111.64
122 37 (33.50) 110.50
123 38 (29.00) 109.70
124 47 11.50 110.10
125 147 160.00 109.89
126 63 83.50 109.05
127 45 2.50 109.45
128 86 160.00 108.83
129 51 29.50 109.22
130 124 160.00 109.61
131 87 160.00 109.99
132 128 160.00 110.36
133 118 160.00 109.43
134 41 (15.50) 109.80
135 143 160.00 108.71
136 36 (38.00) 109.09
137 83 160.00 109.42
138 79 155.50 109.79
139 140 160.00 108.76
140 37 (33.50) 108.17
141 50 25.00 108.54
142 100 160.00 107.79
143 45 2.50 108.16
144 123 160.00 107.30
145 41 (15.50) 106.49
146 42 (11.00) 106.86
147 89 160.00 106.82
148 67 101.50 107.18
149 83 160.00 107.53
150 133 160.00 107.88
151 144 160.00 108.22
152 88 160.00 108.56
153 133 160.00 108.19
154 56 52.00 108.53
155 130 160.00 108.54
156 69 110.50 108.87
157 92 160.00 109.19
158 116 160.00 109.51
159 138 160.00 109.83
160 119 160.00 110.14
161 137 160.00 110.44
162 101 160.00 110.03
163 54 43.00 110.28
164 78 151.00 110.58
165 136 160.00 110.88
166 120 160.00 111.17
167 92 160.00 111.46
168 113 160.00 111.72
169 79 155.50 111.32
170 54 43.00 111.61
171 87 160.00 111.89
172 101 160.00 112.16
173 93 160.00 112.44
174 147 160.00 111.79
175 44 (2.00) 112.06
176 82 160.00 112.33
177 100 160.00 112.60
178 140 160.00 112.74
179 75 137.50 113.00
180 123 160.00 112.41
181 46 7.00 112.38
182 68 106.00 112.12
183 59 65.50 112.38
184 101 160.00 112.64
185 136 160.00 112.90
186 115 160.00 113.05
187 76 142.00 113.30
188 94 160.00 113.55
189 121 160.00 113.79
190 148 160.00 114.03
191 122 160.00 114.27
192 94 160.00 114.51
193 104 160.00 114.74
194 129 160.00 114.98
195 86 160.00 115.21
196 128 160.00 114.41
197 35 (42.50) 113.57
198 33 (51.50) 113.80
199 82 160.00 113.81
200 70 115.00 114.04
201 131 160.00 114.26
202 149 160.00 114.49
203 91 160.00 114.71
204 133 160.00 114.93
205 138 160.00 114.45
206 48 16.00 114.39
207 67 101.50 113.62
208 34 (47.00) 113.84
209 141 160.00 114.06
210 110 160.00 114.27
211 88 160.00 114.49
212 121 160.00 114.70
213 130 160.00 114.92
214 82 160.00 114.69
215 59 65.50 114.90
216 91 160.00 114.36
217 44 (2.00) 114.57
218 138 160.00 114.57
219 70 115.00 114.78
220 148 160.00 114.98
221 142 160.00 115.18
222 116 160.00 115.38
223 120 160.00 115.58
224 125 160.00 115.78
225 104 160.00 115.98
226 123 160.00 116.17
227 103 160.00 115.45
228 34 (47.00) 115.41
229 68 106.00 115.61
230 121 160.00 115.80
231 133 160.00 115.99
232 124 160.00 115.62
233 51 29.50 115.29
234 53 38.50 115.29
235 70 115.00 114.62
236 35 (42.50) 114.81
237 146 160.00 114.30
238 43 (6.50) 114.49
239 144 160.00 114.68
240 141 160.00 114.87
241 109 160.00 115.00
242 77 146.50 115.19
243 98 160.00 115.37
244 97 160.00 115.09
245 55 47.50 115.27
246 83 160.00 115.46
247 119 160.00 115.25
248 59 65.50 115.43
249 99 160.00 115.61
250 101 160.00 115.79
251 100 160.00 115.20
252 37 (33.50) 115.37
253 102 160.00 114.91
254 44 (2.00) 115.09
255 86 160.00 115.11
256 71 119.50 114.47
257 34 (47.00) 113.90
258 37 (33.50) 114.08
259 146 160.00 114.26
260 113 160.00 113.88
261 48 16.00 114.06
262 114 160.00 114.14
263 75 137.50 114.06
264 65 92.50 114.05
265 69 110.50 114.10
266 73 128.50 113.87
267 56 52.00 113.29
268 35 (42.50) 113.34
269 73 128.50 113.52
270 80 160.00 113.37
271 61 74.50 113.54
272 81 160.00 113.04
273 39 (24.50) 113.21
274 118 160.00 113.07
275 61 74.50 113.24
276 80 160.00 113.41
277 141 160.00 113.58
278 133 160.00 113.50
279 65 92.50 113.67
280 102 160.00 113.21
281 41 (15.50) 112.86
282 48 16.00 113.03
283 134 160.00 113.19
284 132 160.00 113.36
285 127 160.00 113.05
286 50 25.00 112.65
287 44 (2.00) 112.58
288 65 92.50 112.26
289 49 20.50 112.42
290 104 160.00 112.03
291 44 (2.00) 112.20
292 124 160.00 112.01
293 57 56.50 111.79
294 55 47.50 111.95
295 145 160.00 112.11
296 80 160.00 112.27
297 111 160.00 112.43
298 111 160.00 112.59
299 111 160.00 112.35
300 53 38.50 112.07
301 51 29.50 112.15
302 75 137.50 112.31
303 138 160.00 112.47
304 150 160.00 112.62
305 119 160.00 112.46
306 58 61.00 112.19
307 51 29.50 112.34
308 126 160.00 111.93
309 41 (15.50) 112.08
310 135 160.00 112.24
311 128 160.00 111.97
312 51 29.50 112.12
313 127 160.00 111.88
314 52 34.00 112.03
315 95 160.00 112.18
316 99 160.00 112.33
317 131 160.00 112.48
318 94 160.00 112.63
319 101 160.00 112.78
320 108 160.00 112.93
321 150 160.00 112.75
322 57 56.50 112.90
323 93 160.00 113.04
324 107 160.00 113.19
325 140 160.00 113.15
326 67 101.50 113.29
327 148 160.00 113.44
328 124 160.00 113.58
329 150 160.00 113.72
330 124 160.00 113.76
331 73 128.50 113.90
332 134 160.00 113.81
333 63 83.50 113.64
334 57 56.50 113.44
335 55 47.50 113.58
336 114 160.00 113.44
337 59 65.50 113.58
338 137 160.00 113.42
339 58 61.00 113.56
340 119 160.00 113.69
341 96 160.00 113.83
342 111 160.00 113.60
343 52 34.00 113.73
344 148 160.00 113.30
345 37 (33.50) 113.44
346 121 160.00 113.57
347 94 160.00 113.51
348 65 92.50 113.65
349 119 160.00 113.56
350 63 83.50 113.50
351 65 92.50 113.39
352 61 74.50 113.52
353 146 160.00 113.65
354 144 160.00 113.78
355 90 160.00 113.91
356 102 160.00 114.04
357 115 160.00 114.17
358 127 160.00 113.80
359 40 (20.00) 113.50
360 46 7.00 113.63
361 108 160.00 113.76
362 144 160.00 113.64
363 60 70.00 113.76
364 96 160.00 113.40
365 40 (20.00) 113.52
366 128 160.00 113.12
367 37 (33.50) 113.20
368 76 142.00 113.33
369 86 160.00 113.30
370 67 101.50 113.42
371 138 160.00 113.55
372 83 160.00 113.67
373 115 160.00 113.76
374 77 146.50 113.88
375 94 160.00 113.92
376 73 128.50 113.77
377 57 56.50 113.89
378 80 160.00 114.01
379 130 160.00 114.14
380 135 160.00 113.72
381 35 (42.50) 113.32
382 35 (42.50) 113.14
383 55 47.50 113.27
384 90 160.00 113.39
385 132 160.00 113.51
386 91 160.00 113.31
387 53 38.50 113.02
388 44 (2.00) 112.57
389 31 (60.50) 112.69
390 126 160.00 112.31
391 36 (38.00) 112.43
392 83 160.00 112.31
393 59 65.50 112.25
394 64 88.00 112.37
395 100 160.00 112.49
396 89 160.00 112.61
397 125 160.00 112.73
398 121 160.00 112.35
399 36 (38.00) 112.47
400 99 160.00 112.56
401 78 151.00 112.56
402 69 110.50 112.23
403 40 (20.00) 112.35
404 88 160.00 112.47
405 82 160.00 112.14
406 40 (20.00) 112.26
407 117 160.00 112.38
408 81 160.00 112.49
409 95 160.00 112.61
410 99 160.00 112.72
411 99 160.00 112.84
412 130 160.00 112.95
413 93 160.00 113.07
414 96 160.00 113.18
415 97 160.00 112.93
416 47 11.50 113.05
417 132 160.00 113.16
418 148 160.00 113.27
419 88 160.00 113.28
420 70 115.00 113.39
421 106 160.00 113.50
422 92 160.00 113.54
423 74 133.00 113.45
424 61 74.50 113.30
425 55 47.50 113.40
426 107 160.00 113.51
427 97 160.00 113.62
428 119 160.00 113.73
429 131 160.00 113.84
430 109 160.00 113.95
431 93 160.00 114.05
432 106 160.00 113.93
433 58 61.00 114.04
434 85 160.00 114.14
435 129 160.00 114.15
436 71 119.50 114.26
437 100 160.00 114.36
438 140 160.00 114.46
439 79 155.50 114.51
440 75 137.50 114.61
441 80 160.00 114.64
442 73 128.50 114.75
443 126 160.00 114.85
444 117 160.00 114.95
445 141 160.00 114.60
446 35 (42.50) 114.34
447 44 (2.00) 114.44
448 96 160.00 114.53
449 79 155.50 114.63
450 106 160.00 114.73
451 148 160.00 114.71
452 68 106.00 114.81
453 138 160.00 114.91
454 85 160.00 115.01
455 125 160.00 114.93
456 62 79.00 115.03
457 105 160.00 115.00
458 67 101.50 115.09
459 79 155.50 115.19
460 136 160.00 115.28
461 105 160.00 115.08
462 49 20.50 115.17
463 105 160.00 115.27
464 136 160.00 115.07
465 49 20.50 115.16
466 109 160.00 115.05
467 58 61.00 114.77
468 41 (15.50) 114.87
469 106 160.00 114.71
470 54 43.00 114.81
471 102 160.00 114.55
472 43 (6.50) 114.65
473 86 160.00 114.74
474 136 160.00 114.80
475 76 142.00 114.62
476 51 29.50 114.29
477 35 (42.50) 114.39
478 117 160.00 114.48
479 135 160.00 114.42
480 63 83.50 114.14
481 40 (20.00) 114.23
482 92 160.00 114.33
483 113 160.00 114.34
484 71 119.50 114.43
485 137 160.00 114.53
486 84 160.00 114.62
487 148 160.00 114.71
488 81 160.00 114.81
489 124 160.00 114.90
490 89 160.00 114.70
491 48 16.00 114.79
492 99 160.00 114.88
493 81 160.00 114.84
494 65 92.50 114.93
495 139 160.00 115.02
496 87 160.00 114.86
497 53 38.50 114.95
498 89 160.00 114.77
499 50 25.00 114.87
500 108 160.00
Decision: Order size 80 Parameters
Revenue 5.00
Output: Average Profit 113.839 Cost 3.00
Scrap 0.50
Min demand 31.00
Max demand 150.00
E[Profits] under diff q
q 113.8
50 93.0
60 103.5
70 110.4
80 113.8
90 112.5
100 107.6
110 99.4

SIMULATION

Average Profit as a
Function of the
Newspaper Number of
Number of Trials Demand Art's Profit Observations
1 143 160 160
2 65 92.5 126.25
3 116 160 137.5
4 144 160 143.125
5 117 160 146.5
6 76 142 145.75
7 120 160 147.785714285714
8 116 160 149.3125
9 77 146.5 149
492 92 160 114.003048780488
493 101 160 114.096348884381
494 122 160 114.189271255061
495 53 38.5 114.036363636364
496 45 2.5 113.811491935484
497 57 56.5 113.696177062374
498 101 160 113.789156626506
499 70 115 113.791583166333
500 75 137.5 113.839
 180 Average Profit as a Function of the Number of
Average profit based on simulations of n simulation
160
Observations
140

120
Avera
100 as a F
of the
runs

80

60

40

20

0
1 24 47 70 93 116139162185208231254277300323346369392415438461484
# of simulation runs (n)
he Number of

Average Profit
as a Function
of the N...

92415438461484
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Order 70 Order 75 Order 80
Changing Cells:
orderQuantity 100 70 75 80
Result Cells:
averageProfit 112.727 116.204 118.149 116.593
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Order 85 Order 90 Order 95 Order 100 Order 105 Order 65

85 90 95 100 105 65

111.32 116.73 110.116 104.285 109.767 109.183