1.

INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Crop production is a common agricultural practice followed by worldwide farmers to grow and
produce crops to use as food and fibre (. This practice includes all the feed sources that are
required to maintain and produce crops. Listed below are few practices used during crop
production.

 Preparation of Soil.

 Sowing of Seeds.

 Irrigation.

 Application of manure, pesticides, and fertilizers to the crops.

 Protecting and Harvesting Crops.

 Storage and Preserving the produced Crops.

The ultimate stages of crop production are harvesting and storage.

Harvesting requires art and practice because a large proportion of crops can be lost due to
improper methods of harvesting. Another concern besides harvesting is storage. Storage of
grains is to be given utmost priority as improper storage can result in the destruction of crops
being by pests or unfavourable environmental conditions
Statement of the problem

Objective

General objective
The general objective of this study will be about assessing the impact of climate change.

Specific objective
To identify the best climatic condition on crop production

Research question

What is the degree of climate change on chiha wereda over the last 10 years

What are the main causes of climate change in study area’

Did crop and soil productivity changed (increasing,decreasing or no change)due to occurrence of

drought and floud

Significant of the study

LITERATURE REVIEW
Definition of climate change

This sub-section provides definitions of key concepts relating to climate change. According to
(IPCC 2014),climate change refers to a change in the change in the state of the climate that
can be identified by changes in the mean and/ or variability of its properties and that
persists for an extended period of time. Impacts of climate change are consequences of
extreme weather events that undermine not only agricultural productivity but also infrastructure
and human being livelihoods directly or indirectly.

(FAO 2012a) report defines climate variability as the variations in the mean state of the climate

on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be

due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations

in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).

Causes of climate change

One of the biggest drivers by far is our burning of fossil fuels – coal, gas and oil – which has
increased the concentration of greenhouse gases – such as carbon dioxide – in our atmosphere.
This, coupled with other activities like clearing land for agriculture, is causing the average
temperature of our planet to increase. In fact, scientists are as certain of the link between
greenhouse gases and global warming as they are of the link between smoking and lung cancer.
Impact of climate change on crop production

Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

. Changes in Mean Climate

The nature of agriculture and farming practices in any particular location are strongly influenced
by the long term mean climate state the experience and infrastructure of local farming
communities are generally appropriate to particular types of farming and to a particular group of
crops which are known to be productive under the current climate. Changes in the mean
climate away from current states may require adjustments to current practices in order to
maintain productivity, and insome cases the optimum type of farming may change. Higher
growing season temperatures can significantly impact agricultural productivity, farm incomes
and food security (Battisti and Naylor, 2009). In mid and high latitudes, the suitability and
productivity of crops are projected to increase and extend northwards; especially for cereals and
cool season seed crops (Maracchi et al., 2005; Tuck et al. 2006; Olesen, 2007). Water is vital to
plant growth, so varying precipitation patterns have a significant impact on agriculture. As over
80 per cent of total agriculture is rain-fed, projections of future precipitation changes often
influence the magnitude and direction of climate impacts on crop production (Olesen and
Bindi, 2002; Tubiello et al., 2002; Reilly, 2003).

Climate Variability and Extreme Weather Events

While change in long-term mean climate will have significance for global food
production and may require on going adaptation, greater risks to food security may be
posed by changes in year-to-year variability and extreme weather events. Historically,
many of the largest falls in crop productivity have been attributed to anomalously low
precipitation events (Kumar et al., 2004; Sivakumar et al., 2005). However, even small
changes in mean annual rainfall can impact on productivity. As current farming systems are
highly adapted to local climate, growing suitable crops and varieties, the definition of what
constitutes extreme weather depends on geographical location. In many regions, farmingmay
adapt to increases in extreme temperature events by moving to practices already used in warmer
climate,for example by growing more tolerant crops. However, in regions farming exists at the
edge of key thresholds increases in extreme temperatures or drought may move the local climate
into a state outside historical humanexperience. In these cases it is difficult to assess the extent to
which adaptation will be possible (Salvatore et al., 2010).

3.2.1. Extreme Temperatures

Changes in short-term temperature extremes can be critical, especially if they coincide

with key stages of development. Only a few days of extreme temperature(greater than 32oC) at
the flowering stage of many crops can drastically reduce yield (Wheeler et al., 2000). Crop
responses to changes in growing conditions can be nonlinear, exhibit threshold responses
and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth ,development and
eventual yield. In the short-term high temperatures can affect enzyme reactions and gene
expression. In the long-term these will impact on carbon assimilation and thus growth rates and
eventual yield.

Drought

There are a number of definitions of drought, whichgenerally reflect different perspectives

(Holton et al., 2003). It is common to distinguish between meteorological drought (broadly
defined by low precipitation), agricultural drought (deficiency in soil moisture, increased plant
water stress), hydrological drought (reduced stream flow) and socio-economic drought (balance
of supply and demand of water to society).

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding

Crop production can also be impacted by too much water. Heavy rainfall events leading to
flooding can wipe out entire crops over wide areas, and excess water can also lead to
other impacts including soil water logging,

anaerobicity and reduced plant growth. Indirect impacts include delayed farming operations
(Kettlewell et al., 1999).
Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity

. Pests and Diseases

Rising atmospheric CO2and climate change may also impact indirectly on crops through effects
on pests and disease. These interactions are complex and as yet the full implications in
terms of crop yield are uncertain. Indications suggest that pests, such as aphids (Newman,
2004) and weevil larvae (Staley and Johnson, 2008), respond positively to elevate CO2
Increased temperatures also reduced the overwintering mortality of aphids enabling earlier
and potentially more widespread dispersion (Zhou et al., 1995). Evidence suggests that in
subSaharan Africa migration patterns of locusts may beinfluenced by rainfall patterns (Cheke
and Tratalos, 2007) and thus potential exists for climate change to shape the impacts of this
devastating pest. Pathogens and disease may also be affected by a changing climate. This
may be through impacts of warming or drought on the resistance of crops to specific
diseases and through the increased pathogen city of organisms by mutation induced by
environmental stress (Gregory et al., 2009). Over the next 10–20 years, disease affecting oilseed
rape could increase in severity within its existing range as well as spread to more northern
regions where at present it is not observed (Evans et al., 2008). Changes in climate
variability may also be significant, affecting the predictability and amplitude of outbreaks.

Mean Sea-Level Rise

Sea-level rise is an inevitable consequence of a warming climate owing to a combination of

thermal expansion of the existing mass of ocean water and addition of extra water owing to the
melting of land ice (Pfefferet al., 2008). This can be expected to eventually cause
inundation of coastal land, especially where the capacity for introduction or modification
of sea defenses is relatively low or non-existent. Regarding crop productivity, vulnerability
is clearly greatest where large sea-level rise occurs in conjunction with low-lying coastal
agriculture. Many major river deltas provide important agricultural land owing to the fertility of
fluvial soils, and many small island states are also low-lying. Increases in mean sea level threaten
to inundate agricultural lands and salinize groundwater in the coming decades to centuries,
although the largest impacts may not be seen for many centuries owing to the time required to
melt large ice sheets and for warming to penetrate into the deep ocean.
Elements of climate change

The climate of a region is ultimately determined by the radiation energy of the sun, and its
distribution and temporal fluctuations. The long-term state of the atmosphere is a function of a
variety of interacting elements. They are: Solar radiation, Air masses,Pressure systems (and
cyclone belts),Ocean Currents, Topography.

Solar radiation : Solar radiation is the radiation,or energy we get from the sun. It is also known
as short-wave radiation. Solar radiation is probably the most important element of climate. Solar
radiation first and foremost heats the Earth's surface which in turn determines the temperature of
the air above. The receipt of solar radiation drives evaporation, so long as there is water
available. Heating of the air determines its stability, which affects cloud development and
precipitation. Unequal heating of the Earth's surface creates pressure gradients that result in
wind.

Every location on Earth receives sunlight at least part

of the year. The amount of solar radiation that reaches any one spot on the Earth's surface varies
according to: Geographic location, Time of day, Season, Local landscape, Local weather. Solar
radiation comes in many forms, such as visible light, radio waves, heat (infrared), x-rays, and
ultraviolet rays. Measurements for solar radiation are higher on clear, sunny day and usually low
on cloudy days. When thesun is down, or there are heavy clouds blocking the sun, solar
radiation is measured at zero.

2. Temperature : Temperature is a very important factor in determining the weather, because it

influences or controls other elements of the weather, such as precipitation, humidity, clouds and

atmospheric pressure.

3. Air masses-wind and storms : An air mass is a large body of air with generally uniform
temperature and humidity. Air masses control the characteristics of temperature, humidity, and
stability. Location relative to source regions of air masses in part determines the variation of the
day-to-day weather and long-term climate of a place.
Winds :-

• The horizontal movement of the atmosphere is called wind. • Wind can be felt only when it is
in motion. • Wind is the result of the horizontal differences in the air pressure.

• Wind is simply the movement of air from high pressure to low pressure. The speed of the wind
is determined by the difference between the high and low pressure. The greater the difference the
faster the wind speed. Closer the isobars stronger the wind The wind brings with it the
temperature of the area it is coming from, therefore a high pressure in a warm region will make
the temperature in the low pressure area higher. Wind-chill is the effect of the wind making it
feel colder than it actually is. As the wind speed increases air is moving more quickly and
therefore removes warm air therefore making it seem colder than the actual temperature.

Precipitation :

• Precipitation is the term given to moisture that falls from the air to the ground. Precipitation
includes snow, hail, sleet, drizzle, fog, mist and rain. Precipitation is simply any water form that
falls to the Earth from overhead cloud formations. As an element of weather, precipitation
determines whether outdoor activities are suitable or if the water levels of lakes and rivers will
rise.As an element of climate, precipitation is a long-term, predictable factor of a region's
makeup. For instance, a desert may experience a storm (weather) though it remains a typically
dry area (climate).

Cloudiness :

Clouds are suspended water in the atmosphere. Clouds are usually the most obvious feature of
the sky Clouds give us a clue about what is going on in our atmosphere and how the
weathermight change in the hours or even days to come. Each type of cloud forms in a different
way, and each brings its own kind of weather. Clouds play multiple critical roles in the climate

system. In particular, being bright objects in the visible part of the solar spectrum, they
efficiently reflect light to space and thus contribute to the cooling of the planet. A small increase
in cloud cover could, in principle, balance the heating resulting from greenhouse gases. Clouds
are the base for precipitation. In summer cloudy days provide protection from the rays of the sun
In winter cloudy skies at night diminish nocturnal radiation and check the fall of temperature.
Clear calm winter nights are usually the coldest and helps in condensation.

. Visibility :

• The most critical weather element.Obstructions to visibility include clouds, fog, smoke, haze,
and precipitation. is represented by the meteorological optical range (MOR) varies with the
background illumination.In extremely clean air in Arctic or mountainous areas, the visibility can
be up to 70 kilometres (43 mi)to 100 kilometres (62 mi). visibility is often reduced somewhat by
air pollution and high humidity.Fog and smoke can reduce visibility to near zero, making driving
extremely dangerous.The same can happen in a sandstorm in and near desert areas, or with forest
fires.Heavy rain (such as from a thunderstorm) not only causes low visibility, but the inability to
brake quickly due to hydroplaning.

Controls of climate:
1. Latitudes;

2. Altitude;

3. Land and water;

4. Distance from land and water;

5. Low and high pressure cells

6. Winds and air masses;

7. Mountains barriers/Relief;

8. Ocean currents
Material and methods

Description of the study area

location
the study will be conducted in cheha wereda guraghe zone Cheha is one of the woredas in the
Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region of Ethiopia. This woreda is named after
one of the sub-groups of the Sebat Bet Gurage, the Cheha. Part of the Gurage Zone, Cheha is
bordered on the south by Enemorina Eaner, on the west by the Oromia Region, on the north by
the Wabe River which separates it from Abeshge and Kebena, on the east by Ezha, and on the
southeast by Gumer and Geta.

Latitude: 8° 09' 60.00" N

Longitude: 37° 44' 59.99" E

Nearest city to this article: Butajīra

Climatic condition

Climatic condition at cheha wereda is

Statement of the problems
Numerous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on crop production in South

Africa [17–22], their findings indicate a decrease in crop yield as a result of a changing

climate. Mayowa [23] examined the impact of climate variability on maize yield in South

Africa using satellite-derived data and a neutral framework. The result of the study indicated

that maize phenology could be impacted by climate variability, especially if the impacts are

most severely experienced during the vegetative and reproductive period of plants. Studies

by Gbetibouo and Hassan [24] and Deraasa et al. [25] used the Ricardian model to

investigate the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops and

found that the production of field crops was more sensitive to changes in marginal

temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Results from their study implied that

an increase in temperature somehow positively affected net revenue whereas the effect of

precipitation decrease was negative. The study went further to highlight the importance of

season and location in dealing with climate change, indicating that the spatial distribution of

climate change impact and consequently the needed adaptation strategies vary across the

different agro-ecological regions of South Africa.

Climate change is a global concern but especially in developing world. Rwanda is among
developing countries that have experienced the impacts of climate change on agricultural
productivity. Rwanda is located in the region of great lakes characterized by variations in
seasonal precipitation and temperature. Due to its topography, climate of Rwanda varies
according to the regions in which it lies. Eastern region is dominated by dry climate, temperate
climate in the Western region, tropical climate in the Northern region which is mountainous
while humid tropical climate in the Southern region of the country. Being a country comprising
of different climate, Rwanda has experienced changes in its climate since 1930s. The changes
that have been observed and experienced include: high average temperature, heavy rainfall
lasting for a short period and prolonged dry season especially in Eastern and Southern province
of Rwanda. These changes have translated into extreme weather events such as prolonged
drought, severe periodic floods and landslides countrywide. Like in other developing countries,
Rwandan agriculture is one of the most vulnerable and exposed sectors to the potential adverse
impacts of climate change. Despite tremendous progress and improvement towards Government
programmes and sector strategies aims at improving agriculture and environment sector, still
vulnerability among rural farmers remains a challenge as it is linked to food insecurity and
poverty. Climate change is well recognized to be one of the anxieties for rural farmers as their
available ability to coping with the prolonged drought period, floods and other extreme weath
erevents is limited.

Research question

This research addresses two questions: 1) What are the expected changes in local crop
productivity and national commodity prices caused by climate change?

2) Would it be profitable for producers to adjust crop mixes and expand irrigated acres to sustain
medium to long-term agricultural productivity and increase farm resiliency? If so, what crop
mixes will emerge and where will producers implement adaptive practices to maximize profit?
This study addresses these questions for the Tennessee River Valley using an integrated
modeling framework. Spatial- and temporal-specific temperature and precipitation data were
estimated for two climate change scenarios – differentiated by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
levels – using a downscaled climate change projection model. Crop yields for scenarios were
estimated with a crop growth model and the simulated weather data. Crop prices were estimated
with a national partial equilibrium (PE) model benchmarked to published results on national
productivity and commodity market conditions under climate scenarios. Finally, the crop price
and yield information inform a producer optimization model for Tennessee’s row crop sector.
Important indicators generated by the integrated model include changes in irrigated acres, crop
mix, water demand, and farm profitability.

Methodology

Description of the study area

The study was conducted in Cheha district, Guraghe zone, SNNPR, Ethiopia (Figure 1). It is about 170 km
far from Addis Ababa in South West direction along the Jimma road. Four kebeles were selected
randomly from the district for a data source. The district is inhabited mostly by local people and most of
them rely on agricultural practices for their livelihood and income source. Their agricultural system
mainly concentrates on „Enset‟ cultivation and other common cereal crops such as teff, as well as other
homegarden vegetables and fruits such as: Carica papaya, Mangifera indica L., Persea americana, Citrus
sinensis (L.) Osbeck,