Probability and It’s
Application
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Azam
Rules of Counting
Multiplication Rule: If a compound experiment consist of two
experiments such that the first experiment has 𝑚 distinct
outcomes and if corresponding to each outcome of the first
experiment there can be 𝑛 distinct outcomes of the second
experiment. Then the compound experiment has exactly 𝑚𝑛
outcomes. For example the compound experiment of tossing a
coin and rolling a die together. Then total number of possible
outcomes are 𝑚𝑛 = 2 ∗ 6 = 12. There are two possible outcomes
when a coin is tossed. Similarly there are six possible outcomes
when a die is rolled. So there are 12 possible outcomes when this
compound experiment is performed.
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
Rules of Counting
•
What is the total no of possible three
digits arrangements including repetitions?
Rules of Counting
Permutation Rule: A permutation is any ordered subset from a set
of 𝑛 distinct sample points. The number of permutations of 𝑟
sample points selected from 𝑛 distinct sample points is
𝑛 𝑛
𝑛!
represented by 𝑃. Where 𝑃 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
𝑟 𝑟
Combination Rule: A combination is an arrangement (without
regard to their order) of subset of 𝑟 sample points from a set of 𝑛
distinct sample points. The number of combinations of 𝑟 sample
𝑛
points selected from 𝑛 distinct sample points is represented by 𝐶
𝑟
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛!
or Where =
𝑟 𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !
Rules of Counting
Example: A club consists of four members. How many sample
points are in the sample space when three officers: president,
secretary and treasurer are to be chosen?.
Solution: In this case order of selection of members seem to be
important. So permutation rule will be applied to get total
number of sample points in sample space S as follows:
𝑛
𝑛!
𝑛 = 4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟 = 3, Therefore, 𝑃 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
𝑟
4 4!
𝑃= = 4! = 4𝑥3𝑥2𝑥1 = 24
4−3 !
3
Rules of Counting
Example: A MPhil class consists of 10 students. How many sample
points are in the sample space when two students are to be
chosen at random?.
Solution: In this case order of selection of students seem not to be
important. So combination rule will be applied to get total
number of sample points in sample space S as follows:
𝑛 𝑛!
𝑛 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟 =2, Therefore, =
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !
10 10! 10! 10𝑥9𝑥8!
= = = = 45
2 2! 10 − 2 ! 2! 8! 2𝑥1𝑥8!
Application
Example: An integer is chosen at random from the first 200
positive integers. What is the probability that the integer chosen is
divisible by 6 or 8?
Example: In a group of 20 adults, 4 out of the 7 women and 2 out
of the 13 men wear glasses. What is the probability that a person
chosen at random is a woman or someone who wear glasses?
Example: A drawer contains 50 bolts and 150 nuts. Half of the
bolts and half of the nuts are rusted. If one item is chosen at
random, what is the probability that it is rusted or is a bolt?
Application
Example: Three balls are drawn successively from the box of containing
6 red balls, 4 white balls, and 5 blue balls. Find the probability that they
are drawn in the order red, white, and blue if each ball is (a) replaced,
(b) not replaced.
Example: One bag contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls; another
contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. If one ball is drawn from each
bag, find the probability that (a) both are white (b) both are black, (c)
one is white and one is black.
Example: Urn I has 2 white and 3 black balls; Urn II, 4 white and 1 black ;
Urn III , 3 white and 4 black. An urn is selected at random and a ball is
drawn at random is found to be white. Find the probability that Urn I was
selected.
Application
• Example: The probabilities that serviceability of a new X-ray machine
will be rated very difficult, difficult, average, easy, or very easy are,
respectively, 0.12, 0.17, 0.34, 0.29, and 0.08. Find the probabilities that
the serviceability of the machine will be rated
• Difficult or very difficult;
• Neither very difficult nor very easy;
• Average or worse;
• Average or better.
• Example: A police department needs new tires for its patrol cars and
the probabilities are 0.15, 0.24, 0.03, 0.28, 0.22, and 0.08 that it will buy
Uniroyal tires, Goodyear tires, Michelin tires, General tires, Goodrich
tires, or Armstrong tires. Find the probabilities that it will buy
• Goodyear or Goodrich tires;
• Uniroyal, Michelin, or Goodrich tires;
• Michelin or Armstrong tires;
• Uniroyal, Michelin, General, or Goodrich tires.
