Reference: Population Studies; Hans Raj
Population Projection
A. Definition:
A Population projection is an estimate of future population based on current population estimates
and other factors. Population projections are often based on the most recent census and other
factors like birth rate, death rate, in-migration, out-migration etc.
A Population projection gives a picture of what the future size and structure of the population by
sex and age might look like. It is based on knowledge of the past trends, and on assumptions
made for three components- fertility, mortality and migration. It can be made for the whole
country or for any area/region.
However, projection may not be exactly true- instead it may vary to some extent. It can’t be very
much dependable for policy maker as well as planners. It can be off course of some help of them.
Since the demographic figures are becoming more important day-by-day for policy makers,
therefore, projections of populations are becoming very important for policy makers, planners
and administrators.
B. Basic Assumptions of Population Projection
Population projections are basically based on some assumptions. Among them the most
important are:
i) The most important assumption is that during the period for which projection is
being made, there will not be sudden fluctuation either in birth rate or death rates
or in other way.
ii) Another assumption is that changes (demographic issues) will be homogeneous,
but not heterogeneous.
C. Methods of Population Projection
i) Mathematical method
ii) Growth component method.
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D. Mathematical Method of Population Projection
Mathematical method about population projection includes both graphic and algebraic method.
In graphic methods time is plotted on the ‘X’ axis and population on the ‘Y’ axis and the
population is calculated for the desired period. In arithmetical projections the rate of population
increase or decrease is taken as uniform throughout the projection period and only crude
components are used.
The formula used for calculating Population projection is as follows:
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃0 + n (P0 – Pm)/ m
Pn = Projected population in n year later from the present year
P0 = Population at present year
Pm = Population at a date m years earlier from the present year
n = Year between present and projected
Example: Suppose, our present population is 16 crores, 5 years earlier it was 14 croes.
What will the projected population after 7 years?
Solution: To calculate the projected population, let us follow the following mathematical
model:
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃0 + n (P0 – Pm)/ m
where, Po= 16 croes, Pm= 14 croes, n= 7 years, m=5 years
By setting the given value in the above formula, we get
Projected population after 7 years will be-
P2031 = 16 + 7(16-14)/5
= 16 + 2.8
= 18.8 crore
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E. Precautions for successful Projections
Some important precautions should be taken for a successful projection. They are as
follows:
i) It should be clearly understood that the projection is not merely a mathematical
calculation. An accurate projection can be with the help of accurate birth rate, death rate
and migration. So regarding the issues, the researcher must have to be very much serious
and sincere to collect accurate information.
ii) Like every other successful research, it is also essential that the researcher should not
allow his personal bias in the process. If so happen, successful projection is not
possible.
iii) The researcher should be prepared to publish his findings no matter whether he likes
the obtained results or not.
iv) As far as possible the projection should not be for a very long period of times,
because in such cases, chances of inaccuracies may happen more.
v) Projection should not for small area but considerably big area, because in case of big
area/large samples, it will be representative.
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F. Why Projections?/Advantages of Population Projections.
i) Population projections help in planning for the future in different walks of life including
economic, social, and political aspects.
ii) Census operations are conducted at every 10 years interval; and it is not possible to know
the population trends until the next census result. With the help of projections,
population growth trends for the intervening periods can be found and necessary steps
can be taken.
iii) In countries, where census operation started at a late stage, in those countries back-ward
projection can help knowing the past population trends and structures.
iv) Population projections also help in estimating international and national migration
trends.
v) These help in making comparative studies, particularly about growth rate, birth rate,
death rate, health conditions and family welfare and family programmes.
Questions for Review
a. What is meant by ‘Population projection’?
b. Based on which indicators population projections are made?
c. Explain the Mathematical method/model of population projection. Problem solution.
d. State the precautions that should be taken for successful projection.
e. Discuss the advantages/ necessities of projections.
