Urban Planning

Lecture 6: Population Projection &

Demand Analysis

PREPARED BY DR. SHREYA DAS

B.ARCH 4TH YR 2021, SOA, TIU
What is Demographics & why
important in Master Plan?
 Demographics refers to the statistical data relating to the population
and particular groups within it.
 Example
 1. the total population of Kolkata
 2. the total male & female population
 3. No of people in different age groups, income groups etc

 Demographic data is used in the planning process to calculate the

future demand/ need for infrastructure
 Future demand depends of the future projected population over a
certain timeline
Why does the Population Change in
a place over time?
 New Births
 Deaths
 In Migration
 Out Migration

 So, the current population of a city or any place will change

over a given period of time
Population Change
 Excess of births over deaths results in natural increase
 Excess of deaths over births results in natural decrease
 The difference between inmigration and outmigration is net
migration
Population Change
 Closed population
A population for which immigration and out migration
are nil, e.g., the population of the world as a whole
 Population
growth depends entirely on the difference
between births and deaths
 Open population
A population in which there may be migration
(international)
 The growth of an open population consists of natural
increase and net migration
Demographic Balancing Equation

 Pop. change = (Births - Deaths) + (Immigrants -

Emigrants)

 Pt = P0 + (B -D) + (I-E)

where: P0 = initial population

Pt = population after time t

 Worldwide, natural increase is the most important

component of overall population change over time
Growth rate

 Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = CBR –CDR

 RNI is expressed as a percent (%) & is often used
as the measure of the annual rate of population
growth
Projection - Definition
 A population projection is:
 An extrapolation of historical data into the future
 An attempt to describe what is likely to happen
under certain explicit assumptions about the
future as related to the immediate past
A set of calculations, which show the future
course of fertility, mortality and migration
depending on the assumptions used
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Methods of population
projection
 Linear Growth – Arithmetic method
 Geometric Growth – Geometric Method
 Exponential Growth
 Cohort Method
Projection – Linear growth

 Implies that there is a constant amount of

increase per unit of time
 A straight line is used to project population
growth

 It is expressed as Pt = P0 + bt

where P0 = initial population

Pt = population t years later

b = annual amount of population change

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Projection – Linear growth

 Assumptions:

 Growth rate is constant

 Change is only experienced at the end of unit

time

 Resultant change (i.e. interest) does not yield

any change
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Projection – Geometric growth

 The growth assumes a geometric series

 It is expressed as

Pt = P0 (1+ r)t

where P0 = initial population

Pt = population t years later

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Projection – Geometric growth

 Assumptions:

 Growth rate is constant

 Change is only experienced at the end of unit

time

 Compounding takes place at specified intervals

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Projection – Exponential growth

 This is the equivalent to the growth of an

investment with compound interest
 Growth is constant, but compounding is continuous

 It is expressed as Pt = P0(ert)

where P0 = initial population

Pt = population t years later

r = annual rate of growth
e = base of the natural logarithm

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 Projection - Definition
 A population projection is:
 An extrapolation of historical data into the future
 An attempt to describe what is likely to happen
under certain explicit assumptions about the
future as related to the immediate past
A set of calculations, which show the future
course of fertility, mortality and migration
depending on the assumptions used
15
Cohort component method

 Data required

 Initial (base) population by age and sex

 Assumptions on mortality - survival ratios

by age and sex

 Assumptions on fertility - ASFRs

 For an open population, assumptions on

international migration
Cohort component method

 Computational steps:
 Project forward the base pop. in each age group
in order to estimate the number still alive at the
beginning of the next interval
 Compute the number of births for each age group
over the time interval, and compute the number
who survive to the beginning of the next interval
 Add migrants and subtract emigrants in each age
group or compute the number of births to these
migrants during the interval, and project forward
the number of migrants and number of births that
will survive to the beginning of the next interval
 Cohort component method

 Population aged 5 years and over:

 Obtain the survivors at the end of each projection
interval (except for the open age group) by
multiplying the survival ratio to the number of
persons at the beginning of the interval,
remembering to move the result one row down. In
life table terms, nLx specifies the mid-year pop.
between age x and x+n. Therefore, the survival
ratio, the proportion of persons surviving from age
x to x+n, is given by xLx+5/xLx (& Tx+5/Tx for the open
age group)
 The number of survivors in the open age group is
obtained by adding the survivors from the
preceding age group to the survivors of the open
age group
 Cohort component method
 Population below age 5:
 The pop. below age 5 at the end of the 5-
year projection interval consists of children
born during the interval
 To obtain this pop., it is first necessary to
compute the number of births by sex
occurring during this interval and then apply
survival ratios to this pop.
 The number of births is calculated from the
ASFRs, the number of women in the
childbearing ages and the sex ratio at birth
 The female population exposed to this
fertility schedule in each age group is the
mean of the initial pop. & the projected pop.
since both groups contribute births to the
age group 0-4
 Cohort component method
 Population below age 5:
 Total births = n/2∑(fP + fP’)*ASFR, where
fP and fP’ are initial and projected female
populations respectively
 Male births = Total births * SRB/(100 +
SRB), where SRB = Sex ratio at birth
 Female births = Total births * 100/(100 +
SRB)
 5 P’o = Births * survival ratio (i.e. 5 Lo/5lo)
 Cohort component method
Age n Lx n Px Px+5
n

0-4 5 Lo 5 Po B* 5Lo/5lo

5-9 5 L5 5 P5 Po * 5L5/5Lo
5

10-14 L10
5 5P10 5 P5 * 5L10/5L5

15-19 L15
5 5P15 5 P10 * 5L15/5L10

…….. …….. …….. ……..

…….. …….. …….. ……..

x - x+5 5 Lx 5 Px Px-5 * 5Lx/5Lx-5

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 Data Sources

 In India, the Demographic Data can be

obtained from the Indian Census Bureau
 Indian Census publishes data for the entire
country at an interval of 10 years
 Let’s take an Example

 Population Projection & Demand Calculation for

Jamtara Planning Area, Jharkhand
 The Total population of Jamtara Planning Area
43319 in 2011, it includes the
 population of Jamtara Nagar Panchayat 29415 and
rural area population of 13904.
 Geographical area -
Census Data - Demographics
Census Data - Demographics
Population Projection for Jamtara –
Arithmetic Method
• Last Available Data: Census 2011
• Population in 2011 (Jamtara Planning Area) – 43319
• Decadal Growth Rate (2001 – 2011) (past records) – 26.83%
• Annual Growth Rate: 0.0268
• Projected Population for 2021 (10 yrs):
• It is expressed as Pt = P0 + (P0 * bt)
• where P0 = initial population
• Pt = population t years later
• b = annual growth rate
Bt = decadal growth rate
• Population (2021) = 43319 + (43319 * 26.83%)
• = 54941
Population Projection for Jamtara –
Geometric Method
• Last Available Data: Census 2011
• Population in 2011 (Jamtara Planning Area) – 43319
• Decadal Growth Rate (2001 – 2011) (past records) – 26.83%
• Average Annual Growth Rate: 0.0268
• Projected Population for 2021 (10 yrs):
• It is expressed as
• Pt = P0 (1+ r)^t
• where P0 = initial population
• Pt = population t years later
• Population (2021) = 43319 * (1 + 0.0268) ^10
= 56433
Population Projection for Jamtara –
Exponential Method
• Last Available Data: Census 2011
• Population in 2011 (Jamtara Planning Area) – 43319
• Decadal Growth Rate (2001 – 2011) (past records) – 26.83%
• Average Annual Growth Rate ( r ): 0.0268
• Projected Population for 2021 (10 yrs):
• It is expressed as Pt = P0(ert)
• where P0 = initial population
• Pt = population t years later
• r = annual rate of growth
• e = base of the natural logarithm
• Population (2021) = 43319 * (e )^0.268
= 56632
Summary of Population Projection for
Jamtara Planning Area (2021)

Base Year Arithmetic Geometric Exponentia Average of

Population Method Method l Method AM, GM
(2011) (2021) (2021) (2021) & EM
Jamtara 43319 54941 56433 56632 (54941 +
Planning 56433 +
Area 56632) / 3
= 56002
Infrastructure Demand Assessment

• Housing Demand
• Capacity of Water Treatment Plant
• Capacity of Sewerage Treatment Plant
• Capacity of Power Plant
Housing Demand

• Total Population (2021) : 56002

• Average Household Size (As per Census) = 5
• Total No of houses required (2021) = 56002/5 = 11200
Water Demand

• Total Population (2021) : 56002

• Daily Per capita water consumption : 125 ltr per capita per day
• Total Daily Water Demand = 56002 x 125 = 7000 Kl (approx.)
Sewerage Treatment Plant Capacity

• Total Population (2021) : 56002

• Daily Per capita water consumption : 125 ltr per capita per day
• Total Daily Water Demand = 56002 x 125 = 7000 Kl (approx.)
• Waste Water generation = 80% x Water Demand
• = 5600 Kl
Capacity of Power Plant

• Total Population (2021) : 56002

• Average Household Size (As per Census) = 5
• Total No of houses required (2021) = 56002/5 = 11200
• Average electricity unit consumption per day = 60 units
• If you use 1000 Watts or 1 Kilowatt of power for 1 hour then
you consume 1 unit or 1 Kilowatt-Hour (kWh) of electricity
• Therefor total electrical load = 11200 x 60
• = 672 MW