DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Demography or population studies
represents the starting point for planning at all scales
Plans are by nature
oriented toward the
future, estimates of the
composition of a given
population at a future
date will be necessary
POPULATION
refers to the total number of individuals in a territory at a
specified time.
Population is the basis for
determining whether the
level of public services like
schools, health centers,
recreational facilities, power
and water supply, is
adequate/inadequate or
accessible/inaccessible.
Demography or population studies
represents the starting point for planning at all scales
Provides guidelines for
deciding total land
requirements and the basis of
land between various
competing land uses
Demography or population studies
represents the starting point for planning at all scales
Population make-up and distribution dictates the
policy for most of the human settlements needs
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Generates relevant population
1 data in a specific area
Involves the determination of present trends
2 governing changes in population statistics as
well as future population shifts in a given area
Can readily be accessed from the
3 National Census conducted nationwide
at regular five-year intervals
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
In undertaking demographic analysis, three aspects of the
population must be studied:
CHARACTERISTICS
SIZE
DISTRIBUTION
DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS
1 Fundamental Demographic Methods
Trend Models
Treat the population as a whole
Composition Models
without disaggregation with Treat a given population as an
respect to age, sex or other aggregate of the various
characteristics. groups, and the evolution of the
population results (in part) from
the interaction of these groups
DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS
2 Methods of Population Projection
Mathematical Method
Estimates future population
Economic Method
Projects future population based on
economic conditions
Component or Cohort-Survival
Method
Projects population by demographic
components
-----------
-----------
- - -POPULATION GROWTH- - -
FERTILITY
-----------------
refers to the live births that occur within a
population.
-----------------
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
-----------------
refers to the number of births divided by the midyear
population, usually expressed in terms of thousands.
It is the simplest and most commonly used index of
fertility.
-----------------
CBR = _B_ X 1000
P
Where:
B – No. of Births in a given year
P - Total Mid-year population of same year
Example:
= 297 X 1000
10000
CBR = 29.7 per 1000 population
-----------------
Total Mid-year Population (July 1)
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t
Where:
Po = pop at an earlier period
Pt = unknown pop or to be estimated
1.0 = constant
r = annual population growth rate
t = time interval between Po and Pt
-----------------
MORTALITY
-----------------
refers to the occurrence of deaths in a
population.
-----------------
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
-----------------
is a rough measure of mortality. It refers to
the number of deaths per 1,000 population.
-----------------
CDR = _D_ X 1000
P
Where:
D – No. of Deaths in a given year
P - Total Mid-year population of same year
Example:
= 70 X 1000
10000
CDR = 7 per 1000 population
-----------------
Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
-----------------
Rate of population increase in a given period
due to births and deaths
-----------------
RNI = (CBR - CDR)
Example:
CBR (Philippines, 1990) = 29.7 per 1000 population
CDR (Philippines, 1990) = 7.0 per 1000 population
RNI = (CBR - CDR)
= (29.7 - 7.0)
= 22.7 or 23
-----------------
Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI
-----------------
Municipality of Pangarap 2015
# of Births: 672
# of Deaths: 245
Mid-year Population : 23,400
-----------------
ARITHMETIC CHANGE
-----------------
Assumes that there are linear increases or
decreases in population
-----------------
r Pt – Po k
=
t (Po)
*
Example:
Pt = Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.3370
r=?
r 68,616,536 – 60,703,206 100
=
5.3370 (60,703,206)
*
r = 2.44 percent
-----------------
GEOMETRIC CHANGE
-----------------
Assumes that the population changes at a rate
where the increments or decreases are
compounded over a specified period
-----------------
log Pt
Po
r = antilog -1* k
t
Example:
Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.3397
r=?
k = 100
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t
-----------------
Pt
log
Po
r = antilog - 1* k
t
log 68,616,536
60,703,206
r = antilog -1 * 100
5.3397
0.05321716 -1
r = antilog
5.3397
* 100
r = 1.023213639 - 1 * 100
r = 2.32 percent
-----------------
EXPONENTIAL CHANGE
-----------------
Assumes an instantaneous growth rate
-----------------
In Pt
Po
r =
* k
t
Example:
Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.3397
r=?
k = 100
Pn = Poert
-----------------
In Pt
Po
r = * k
t
In 68,616,536
60,703,206
r =
5.3397
* 100
0.122537041
r =
* 100
5.3397
r = 2.29 percent
-----------------
DOUBLING TIME
-----------------
Refers to the length of time a particular
population would double its size under a given
growth rate
-----------------
69.3*
Doubling time =
Growth Rate (%)
Example:
69.3
Doubling time =
2.35
Doubling time = 29.5 years
*It takes 69.3 years for a 1% Growth Rate to double the population
size
-----------------
When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the
46,800 Population?
-----------------
2015 Population: 23,400
R = 2.16
-----------------
POPULATION
PROJECTIONS
There are different
methods of
projecting future
population.
This guide suggests the combined use of
GEOMETRIC and PARTICIPATION RATE.
log Pt
r = antilog Po -1* k
t
GEOMETRIC METHOD
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t
PARTICIPATION RATE
METHOD (PR)
This method simply uses ratio or
percent share of a particular
segment of population to total
population using actual/latest
census data.
EXAMPLE: Population per barangay
PR Working Age = Dependent population
Pop’n 15-64 years old Labor force population
Total population Population per age group
City/Municipal Population Projection
Projection required is yearly for the first 5 years and 5 years
thereafter.
Participation Rate (PR) = Po (base pop’n of City/Municipality)
Po (base pop’n of province)
City/Municipal Population Projection
(Planning Period 2016-2025)
Province Base Pop’n
City/ Mun. (Po1) Projected Population
PR2
(2010)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
Province 215,356 1 2574183 261897 266404 270666 274997 2881283 3085953
City/ Mun. 57,067 0.265 68216* (69403) (70597) (71726) (72874) 76354** 81778**
1use latest census data
Po (City/Mun.)
2Participation Rate =
Po (Province)
3given data obtained from NSO
*projected pop’n of city/mun., 2017 = PR x Projected Pop’n of province 2017
**apply same formula using data corresponding to the projection year 2020 and 2025
(xxxxx) : derived by PR method
xxxxx : computed based on growth rate (r), assumed to be constant between 5-year
interval projection for the province
• Use the Geometric formula to get the Growth Rate
(r) using the two latest census. And use it to
project the whole planning period.
• Growth Rate (r) – 2007 and 2010
• Growth Rate (r) – 2016 to 2025
log Pt
r = antilog Po -1* k
t
GEOMETRIC METHOD
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t
Practice computing r and projected population
using geometric formula:
-----------------
Municipality of Pangarap
2010: 21,030
2015: 23,400
r=?
2020: ?
-----------------
Yearly Population per
Barangay
City/ Base
Municipality/ Pop’n Projected Population
PR2
Barangay (Po1) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
(2010)
Total 57,067 1.00 68,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778
Brgy. A 2,879 0.050 3,411 3,470 3,530 3,586 3,644 3,818 4,089
Brgy. B 2,806 0.049 3,343 3,401 3,459 3,515 3,571 3,741 4,007
Brgy. C 3,554 0.044 (3,001) 3,054 3,106 3,156 3,206 3,360 3,598
Etc.
Sample computation:
xxxxx – projected population of the city/municipality previously computed
Yearly Population per
Barangay
Brgy. Pop’n
PR = Pop’n of city/mun.
2879
PR , Brgy. A = 57,067 = 0.05
Projected population Brgy.= PR of Brgy. x Projected Pop’n of city/mun.
Pop’n (Brgy. A):
2015 = 0.05 x 68,216 = 3,411
2016 = 0.05 x 69,403= 3,470
etc.
Population Projection
by Age-Group
Age- Pop’n Projected Population
Group (Po) PR1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
(2010)
Total 57,067 1.00 68,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778
Under 1 1,666 0.0292 1,992 2,027 2,061 2,094 2,128 2,230 2,388
1-4 6, 196 0.1086 7,408 7,537 7,667 7,789 7,914 8,292 8,881
5-9 7, 384 9,281 9,430 9,880 10,582
> 80
Sample computation using PR:
xxxxx – results of previous computations
Blank – for Practice computation
Population Projection
by Age-Group
1. PR (age group: Under 1) = Pop’n (under 1) = 1,666
Pop’n of city/mun. 57,067
= 0.0292
Apply the same formula for all other age-groups to get PR for each age-group.
2. Projected pop’n of age Under 1 = PR x P(city/mun.)
= 0.0292 x 68,216
= 1992
Apply the same formula to project the rest of the population per age-group.
Projected Labor Force
PR = Pop’n in the labor force (or economically active pop’n)
Pop’n 15 years and over
Projected Labor Force
Pop’n Projected Population
(Po)
PR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
(2010)
Household 34,601 1.00 41,359 42,079 42,803 43,487 44,184 46,293 49,582
pop’n 15
yrs & over
In the labor 33,563 0.970 40,118 40,816 41,519 42,182 42,858 44,904 48,095
force
Male 16,647 (0.496) 19,899 20,245 20,593 20,476 21,258 22,272 23,855
Female 16,916 (0.504) 20,219
xxxxx – projected population by age-group
Projected Labor Force
33,563
Labor Force PR = 34,601 = 0.97
11,647
Male PR in the Labor Force = = 0.496
33,563
Projected Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Pop’n 15 yrs & over
= 0.97 x 41,359
= 40,118
Projected Labor Force
Projected Male Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Labor Force 2008
= 0.496 x 40,118
= 19,898
Projected Female Labor Force, 2015 = 0.504 x 40,118 = 20,219
Repeat procedure to obtain projection for the rest of the planning period.
Population Characteristics
• It refers to the composition of the population in
terms of age, sex, marital status and other
characteristics of the population.
Age Sex Composition
• Sex Ratio is simply the number of males per
100 females in a population.
SR = M * 100
F
Age Dependency Ratio
• The ratio of the population in the dependent ages of
0-14 years and 65 years and over to the population
in the working ages 15-64 years.
• Child Dependency Ratio = P 0-14
P 15-64 * 100
• Old-Age Dependency Ratio = P 65 over
P 15-64 *100
• Age Dependency Ratio = P 0-14 + P 65 over
P 15-64 *100
Municipality of Pang-rap
YEAR 2015
All Male Female
•What is the Young
Dependency Ratio,
Old Age Dependency
Ratio and
Age Dependency
Ratio?
Labor Force
• Labor Force refers to the population 15 years old
and over who contribute to the production of goods
and services in the country.
• Labor Force Participation Rate - proportion of the
total number of persons in the labor force to the total
population 15 years old and over.
Unemployed (new definition)
- includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their
last birthday and are reported as:
i. without work, i.e., had no job or business during the basic
survey reference period; and
ii. currently available for work, i.e., were available and willing
to take up work in paid employment or self employment
during the basic survey reference period, and/or would be
available and willing to take up work in paid employment or
self employment within two weeks after the interview date;
and,
Unemployed (new definition)
- includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their
last birthday and are reported as:
iii. seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps to look for a job
or establish a business during the basic survey reference period;
OR not seeking work due to the following reasons: (a)
tired/believe no work available, i.e, the discouraged workers who
looked for work within the last six months prior to the interview
date; (b) awaiting results of previous job applications; (c)
temporary illness/disability; (d) bad weather; and (e) waiting for
rehire/job recall.
• Employment Rate
- the proportion of total number of
employed persons to the total number of
persons in the labor force
MARITAL STATUS
Basic Terms
• Single - A person who has never
been married;
• Married - A couple living together
as husband and wife, legally or
consensually;
• Divorced - A person whose bond
of matrimony has been dissolved
legally and who therefore can
remarry;
Basic Terms
• Separated - A person separated
legally or not from his/her
spouse because of marital
discord or misunderstanding;
and
• Widowed - A person whose
bond of matrimony has been
dissolved by death of his/her
spouse.
Singulate Mean Age at Marriage
(SMAM)
❖A measure of nuptiality derived from a set of percent
singles at all ages.
❖It denotes the number of years that a
married individual spends in singlehood
before ultimately marrying.
Steps to calculate SMAM
The data requirements to calculate SMAM are:
(a) the given area’s population and
(b) the never married population aged
15-54 by age and sex.
The steps are: …
Steps to calculate SMAM
1. Derive the percent single or never married by age group 15-
19 to 50-54;
2. Sum up the percent single from age group15-19 to age group
50-54 and multiply the sum by 5;
3. Add 1,500.
4. Average the percentages for age groups 45-49 and 50-54;
5. Multiply the result of (4) by 50;
6. Subtract the result of (5) from (3);
7. Subtract the result of (4) from 100; and
8. Divide the result of (6) by the result of (7)
SMAM: Sample Database
Table 7. SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE, BATANGAS CITY, 2010
Age Male Single Percent Female Single Percent (%)
Pop’n Pop’n Pop’n (%) Pop’n Pop’n
All Ages 68,254 34, 585 69,894 32,526
15-19 10,153 9,929 97.80 10,075 9,354 92.84
20-24 9,036 7,273 80.49 9,136 5,786 63.33
25-29 7,509 3,437 45.77 7,610 2,452 32.22
30-34 6,654 1,362 20.47 6,558 1,083 16.51
35-39 5,629 540 9.59 5,534 614 11.10
40-44 4,713 327 6.94 4,676 495 10.59
45-49 3,405 175 5.14 3,497 383 10.95
50-54 2,791 147 5.27 3,031 338 11.15
SMAM: Computation
MALE FEMALE
1) 271.47 1) 248.69
2) 271.47 x 5=1,357.35 2) 248.69 x 5 = 1,243.45
3) 1,357.35 + 1,500 = 2,857.35 3) 1,243.45 + 1,500 = 2,743.45
4) 5.14 + 5.27 = 10.41 ÷ 2 = 5.205 4) 10.95 + 11.15 = 22.1 ÷ 2 = 11.05
5) 5.205 x 50 = 260.25 5) 11.05 x 50 = 552.5
6) 2,857.35 – 260.25 = 2,597.1 6) 2,743.45 – 552.5 = 2,190.95
7) 100 – 5.205 = 94.795 7) 100 – 11.05 = 88.95
8) 2,597.1 ÷ 94.795 = 27.39 or 27 8) 2,190.95 ÷ 88.95 = 24.6 or 25
POPULATION PYRAMID
Three General Types
of Population Pyramids
1. Expansive
2. Constrictive
3. Stationary
The expansive pyramid has a broad base that indicates
high fertility.
The constrictive pyramid has a base that is narrower than
the middle of the pyramid. It indicates moderate population
growth.
The stationary type of pyramid has a base which is
approximately equal to each subsequent age group, tapering at
older ages. It indicates a moderate proportion of the children,
a relatively large proportion of persons in the old ages and a low
population growth.
Measures of Urbanization
• Gross Population Density is expressed as the
number of persons per unit of land area, usually in
hectares or square kilometers.
• Net Population Density is the ratio of population to
the total area of arable land. An arable land, for
convenience, is defined as the total land area of
lands classified as “alienable and disposable
Urban Population Density
Level of Urbanization in percent
Tempo of urbanization in
percentage points
Social Sector Use of
Population Data
EDUCATION
Measurement of School-Going Age
Population (6-21 years old)
Interpolation Technique
- also used in reclassifying the NSO population groupings into
the desired school-going age population group
School-going age population:
Primary – 7 to 12 years old
Junior HS – 13 to 16 years old
Senior HS – 17 to 18 years old
Tertiary – 19 to 22 years old
Illustration:
a. Compute for the primary school going age (6-10) population
Ages 5-9 = 4/5 x Population age group 5-9
AgeGroup Number
= 4/5 x 41,109 = 32,887 Under1 11,285
1-4 40,303
5-9 41,109
Ages 10-14 = 1/5 x Population age group 10-14 10-14 33,317
= 1/5 x 33,317 = 6,663 15-19 28,481
20-24 23,376
25-29 18,808
Total Primary School-Going Age Population 30-34 15,584
= 32,887 + 6,663 = 39,550
Total 212,263
Measurement of School Going-Age Population
and Present Enrollment
1. Calculation of Current Enrollment Participation Ratio (EPR)
No. of Enrollees by Level
EPR =
School Going Age Population of Relevant Age Level
Illustration:
Given:
School going-age population in the primary level (6-10) = 10,000
No. of enrollees in the primary level = 1,500
EPR = 9,500 x 100
10,000
= 95.00%
For every 100 children aged 6-10 years, 95 are enrolled and 5
do not go to school.
Measurement of School Going-Age Population
and Present Enrollment
Measurement of Literacy Rate
Population who have completed a year in elementary
LR =
Population (10 years old and over)
Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/
Classroom Facilities
1. Calculation of Student-Teacher Ratio (STR)
No. of Enrollees
STR = No. of Primary School Teachers
Illustration: 53: 1 = 12,149
231
There is one teacher available for every 53 students
(STD = 1:50)
Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/
Classroom Facilities
2. Calculation of Student-Classroom Ratio (SCR)
No. of Enrollees
SCR =
No. of Classrooms
Illustration: 38:1 = 12,149
268
One room for every 38 students (STD=1:50)
HOUSING
Computation of Housing Need
Housing Need
Projected Housing need = New Household + Service
Backlog
New Housing need = New population / Average HH size
Backlog:
1. Doubled – Up (DUHH) = No. of Households (HH) – No. of Housing Units (HU)
2. Unacceptable Housing Units = 5% of HU made of mixed materials
3.Mixed Materials = HU with walls and roof made of wood, cogon/Nipa/
Anahaw, asbestos and others (NSO data on Occupied HU by construction
materials)
4. Makeshift / Salvage / Improvised HU (per NSO data)
5. Others
SOCIAL WELFARE
Tool 1:
Inventory and Assessment of Social Welfare Facilities
1. Day Care Center
2. Senior Citizen Care Center
3. Day Center for Street Children
4. Temporary Shelter for Women
5. Reception and Study Center
6. Family Life Resource Center
7. Early Childhood Development Resource Center
Tool 2:
Clientele Projection of Social Welfare
Projected Population (below poverty line) = 16,000
Current Clientele (DSWD Survey) = 2,000
Current Population (below poverty line) = 15,000
Projected Clientele = Projected x Current Clientele
Population (Current Population)
= 16,000 x 2,000/15,000
= 2,133
PROTECTIVE
SERVICES
Tool 1:
Inventory and Assessment Related to
Peace and Order Condition
1. Police/Firemen
2. Type of Barangay Brigades (disaster, tanod, and traffic auxilliary)
3. Police and Fire Facilities
4. Number and Location of Police/Fire Station and Jails
5. Fire Incidence
Tool 2:
Determination of Police Force
Size of Police Force
Police Force = Total Population
Policeman to Population Ratio = 40/60,000
= 1:1,500
Each Policeman in the locality serves at least 1,500 inhabitants
Ideal: 1 policeman:500 persons
Minimum Standard PPR = 1:1,000
Tool 3:
Determination of Fireman-Population Ratio
Fireman-
Population = No. of Fireman
Ratio Total Population
Fire Population Ration = 6/60,000
= 1:10,000
One fireman serving 10,000 people
City/Large Municipalities – 1 Fireman: 2,000 people
PNP standard – 1:500
Tool 4:
Determining Future Requirement
1. Population Demand for Policemen
a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio
for Policemen
PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 policemen
b. Current Police = Total Population Demand -
Force Requirement Actual No. of Police Force
CPF = 120 – 20 = 100 policemen
Tool 4:
Determining Future Requirement
2. Population Demand for Firemen
a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio
for Fireman
PDP = 60,000 X 1/500
= 120 firemen
b. Current Firemen = Total Population Demand -
Requirement Actual No. of Firemen
= 120 – 20 = 100 firemen
Tool 4:
Determining Future Requirement
3. Projection of Police Force Requirement
PPF = Projected Population X Standard Number of Police
Force to Population Ratio
