Statistical Approach for Smart Home Energy
Management System
Team Members:
Vivek Choudhry
Vanita
Anusha
Bhuvanesh
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1. Data Collection and Preprocessing
Sources of Data:
• Energy meters, IoT sensors, weather APIs, and smart devices.
Key Variables:
• Energy consumption (kWh).
• Device usage patterns.
• Time of day/week (peak vs. non-peak).
• Environmental conditions (temperature, humidity).
• Energy tariffs (time-of-use pricing).
Techniques:
• Data Cleaning: Remove outliers and handle missing data.
• Feature Engineering: Create features like average consumption per hour,
weekend/weekday indicators.
Example Code for Data Cleaning: import
pandas as pd
data = pd. read csv (”energy data . csv”) data .
dropna( inplace=True) data = data [ data [
’consumption ’ ] > 0] print( data . head ())
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2. Descriptive Statistics
Analyze patterns and trends:
• Mean, Median, Mode: Average energy usage.
• Variance and Standard Deviation: Consumption variability.
• Histogram Analysis: Peak usage hours.
• Correlation Analysis: Relationship between variables (e.g., temperature vs. energy
usage).
Example Code for Descriptive Statistics:
print(”Mean: ” , data [ ’consumption ’ ] . mean()) print(”Standard Deviation
: ” , data [ ’consumption ’ ] . std ()) print( data [ [ ’ temperature ’ ,
’consumption ’ ] ] . corr ())
3. Predictive Modeling
Statistical Models:
• Time Series Analysis:
– ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) for demand forecasting.
– Seasonal Decomposition of Time Series (STL) to capture seasonal patterns.
• Regression Analysis:
– Multiple Linear Regression to predict consumption based on weather, occupancy,
etc.
– Polynomial Regression for non-linear patterns.
• ClassiHication Models (Logistic Regression): Identify devices likely to consume high
energy.
Example Code for Regression Analysis: from sklearn . linear
model import LinearRegression
X = data [ [ ’ temperature ’ , ’ humidity ’ ] ] y = data
[ ’consumption ’ ] model = LinearRegression ()
model . f i t (X, y)
print(” CoefUicients : ” , model . coef )
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4. Optimization Techniques
Methods for Scheduling and Load Management:
• Linear Programming (LP): Minimize energy costs by scheduling appliance usage
during off-peak hours.
• Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP): Incorporate binary variables (e.g.,
ON/OFF state of devices).
• Stochastic Optimization: Account for uncertainties like variable renewable energy
availability.
Example Code for Optimization: from scipy
. optimize import linprog
costs = [0.12 , 0.15 , 0.20] constraints = [[1 , 1 , 1] ,
[1 , 0 , 1]]
bounds = [(0 , 5) , (0 , 3) , (0 , 4)]
result = linprog ( costs , A eq=constraints , b eq =[10, 7] , bounds=bounds)
print(”Optimal schedule : ” , result . x)
5. Energy EfEiciency Metrics
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs):
• Energy Usage Intensity (EUI): kWh per square meter of home area.
• Load Factor: Average load divided by peak load.
• Demand Response Effectiveness: Reduction in peak demand during response events.
6. Statistical Anomaly Detection
Techniques:
• Z-Score for outlier detection.
• Moving averages to detect sudden spikes.
• Clustering (e.g., K-means) to group devices by usage patterns.
Example Code for Anomaly Detection: from
scipy . stats import zscore
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data [ ’ z score ’ ] = zscore ( data [ ’consumption ’ ]) anomalies
= data [ data [ ’ z score ’ ] . abs() > 3] print( anomalies )
7. Demand Response and User Insights
Behavioral Analytics:
• Analyze how habits affect energy use.
• Develop energy-saving recommendations.
Energy Dashboards:
• Visualize statistics (e.g., daily, weekly trends).
8. Renewable Energy Integration
Modeling for Renewable Sources:
• Solar irradiation prediction using regression.
• Storage optimization for battery usage based on statistical load prediction.
Example Code for Renewable Integration: from sklearn .
ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
X = data [ [ ’ solar radiation ’ , ’ temperature ’ ] ] y = data [ ’
solar output ’ ] model = RandomForestRegressor () model . f
i t (X, y)
print(”Feature importance : ” , model . feature importances )
9. Real-Time Monitoring and Feedback
Real-Time Statistical Analysis:
• Use moving averages or exponentially weighted averages for adaptive controls.
• Implement real-time alerts for abnormal consumption.
Example Code for Real-Time Alerts:
def check abnormal consumption (consumption , threshold ):
if consumption > threshold :
print(”Alert : High consumption detected ! ”) check abnormal
consumption (15 , 10)
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Data-Analysis
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Practical Implementation :
