introduction
Forecasting energy consumption is increasingly becoming a necessity in the current fast-
paced, technologically advanced world. In this report, the creation and application of an
interactive dashboard that will forecast energy consumption accurately is presented.
Developed with Streamlit, the dashboard is intuitive and robust. It allows users to analyze
past energy consumption patterns, compare forecasting models, and evaluate their
performance based on key metrics. By filling the gap between technical analysis and real-
world decision-making, the dashboard is an invaluable resource for energy suppliers,
policymakers, and researchers.
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### 2. Background and Motivation
Energy use forecasting is more than a technical problem; it's a social one. Utilities are under
increasing pressure to meet growing demand with sustainable supply. Couple this with the
challenges of bringing in renewables and minimizing grid wastage, and the imperative for
accurate forecasting is evident.
Envision a metropolitan area during rush hour: houses supplied by electricity from all kinds
of appliances, office towers lit up, and transportation networks in full motion. What if the
available energy cannot keep up with the demand? Blackouts, waste, and economic losses.
Forecasting capabilities—such as the dashboard we created—come into play in rectifying
such situations.
This initiative is motivated by the worldwide movement toward cleaner energy and the
potential of data-informed planning. By providing stakeholders with improved tools, we
hope to help build a future with as smart and sustainable an energy planning process as the
technology it supports.
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### 3. Data Collection and Preprocessing
The basis of any forecasting tool is the data. For the sake of this project, the dashboard
accepts two forms of data input:
1. Synthetic Datasets: Preloaded data intended to simulate actual energy use patterns.
2. User-Uploading CSV Files: User-created datasets uploaded to customize the forecasting to
their particular requirements.
Processing this data is crucial. Raw timestamps are mapped to datetime objects, and
temporal features like hours, days, and months are derived. Missing or suspicious values—so
prevalent in real-world datasets—are detected and treated. Missing values during holidays
or sudden peaks from extreme weather events, for instance, are cleaned to be able to rely
on accurate predictions.
Here's an example of a preprocessing pipeline:
- Cleaning: Invalid entry removal.
- Feature Extraction: Converting timestamps to actionable information.
- Validation: Preparing the dataset to be modeled.
These phases make the dashboard strong and flexible.
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### 4. Feature Engineering
Feature engineering is the process of transforming raw data into useful insights. For energy
forecasting, time-based features are central. Why? Energy consumption follows cyclical
patterns based on the time of day, day of the week, and even seasons.
For instance:
- Morning Peak: Higher consumption as people begin their day.
- Weekend Dip: Less usage than during weekdays.
- Winter Surge: Heating devices increase demand.
By capturing these trends, the engineered features—hour, day, and month—enable
forecasting models to provide precise predictions.
Visualizations are an excellent means of interpreting feature importance. Hourly trend or
seasonal variation charts can uncover underlying dynamics, which fortify the forecasting
process.
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### 5. Linear Regression Model
Let's keep it simple. The Linear Regression model is the baseline, yielding understandable
and computationally cheap predictions. It operates on the time-based features we designed
to project future consumption.
Although less complex than more sophisticated models, Linear Regression has some
advantages:
- Fast Results: Perfect for early testing.
- Transparency: The user can easily comprehend how the predictions are created.
For example, if historically energy consumption peaks at 7 PM, the model can estimate
future peaks based on that pattern. It is kind of the launching point to diving into more
advanced forecasting techniques.
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### 6. ARIMA Model
For time-series data, ARIMA is the heavyweight champion. The model is based on past
consumption values, with patterns picked up via autocorrelation analysis.
Here's how it operates:
- Autoregressive (AR): Takes into account previous values.
- Integrated (I): Processes non-stationary trends.
- Moving Average (MA): Examines error terms to improve predictions.
Parameters (p, d, q) are optimized using autocorrelation plots for best results. Consider a
situation where daily usage varies but remains stable in the long run. ARIMA adjusts to such
trends and provides highly accurate predictions.
Graphing ARIMA predictions against actual data gives insights into the reliability of the
model.
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### 7. Prophet Model
Say hello to Prophet: a flexible and easy-to-use model. Built by Meta, Prophet is an expert at
capturing seasonality, trends, and special events such as holidays.
Prophet is unique because:
- Automatic Change Point Detection: Updates forecasts in response to changes in trends.
- Flexible: Enables users to specify precise events, resulting in better accuracy.
Envision predicting energy consumption in December. With holiday lights, heaters, and
celebrations, the pattern varies from normal. Prophet adjusts effortlessly, which makes it
perfect for practical use.
Plots illustrating how Prophet handles seasonal peaks or troughs help users better
understand.
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### 8. Results and Evaluation
Evaluation is where the rubber meets the road. Through measures such as Mean Absolute
Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), the dashboard evaluates models to find
the top performer.
For example:
- Linear Regression: Efficient and clear but less precise in complex patterns.
- ARIMA: Performs better in temporal relationships but needs diligent parameter tuning.
- Prophet: Flexible and sturdy for irregular patterns.
Tables illustrating these measures—in addition to visual error analysis—assist users in
making informed decisions.
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### 9. Discussion
No model exists without trade-offs:
- Linear Regression: Good balance between simplicity and interpretability.
- ARIMA: Extremely accurate but compute-intensive.
- Prophet: Versatile but requires domain-specific tweaks.
By considering these trade-offs, stakeholders are able to mold their forecasting strategies to
meet unique requirements. An example would be a small power company valuing simplicity,
whereas a large operations company would go for computationally intensive models with
greater precision.
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### 10. Conclusion
This project is an innovative solution to energy forecasting. With a balance of analytical
sophistication and user-friendliness, the dashboard is a useful tool for making informed
decisions. Whether grid stability planning, maximizing renewable energy integration, or
minimizing wastage, this tool is a step towards a sustainable energy future.
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### 11. Mapping to Sustainable Development Goal
The dashboard helps to directly address SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy. Reliable
forecasting facilitates effective allocation of resources, eliminates wastage, and helps hasten
the uptake of renewable energy sources. It empowers utilities and policymakers and enables
a future where everyone has access to clean, sustainable energy.
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