Chapter 13

CONTEMPORARY WORLD

Global Demography
GROUP 9
Learning Objectives
1. Understand the basic concepts and measures in Demography.

2. Trace the source and historical growth of the population.

3. Compare the size, composition, and distribution of the world population.

4. Critically evaluate the validity of different population theories.

Draw a conclusion regarding the underlying relationship between

5.
population growth, food security and development.
 What is
Demography?
Demography
Demo - meaning "the people"
Graphy - "measurement"

The scientific study of the population is called

demography, and the person who specializes in the
study of population is a demographer.
 Population
In the study of society, The word
Population lies on the fact
population dynamics is "population"refers to the
that a change in population
inevitable to study because number of persons
size constitutes some of
it has a big impact to occupying a certain
the important features of
environment, health, and geographic area, drawing
social transition and subsistence from their
development, and could, in
change. habitat, and Interacting
one way or another, affect
the lives of each people. with one another.
Rapid population growth
- poses great hazards to the environment
according to several studies. In man's
effort to meet his basic demands, it may
result to the depletion of: the natural
resources.
 Population Structure

Size Composition Distribution

Composition, on the The term
Size refers to the
other hand, describes "distribution" refers to
number of people the characteristics of how the population is
while growth people comprising the distributed in a given
refers to the population, their age, sex geographic area, This is
changes in distribution, educational
best measured in terms
number of people attainment, economic
of population density.
over time. activities,
ethnicity,religion, etc.
Countries in the world by population (2025)
 The change in the population size is determined by three
demographic process, namely; fertility, mortality, and migration.

• Fertility
- Fertilty refers to the amount of reproduction among
women of reproductive ages,This is usually expressed in
terms of number of children born by women in ages 15-
49.

- Fertility is composed of two parts: one is the biological

component while the other is social component.
Biological component Social Component
biological component of
fertilty is the capacity of the The social component of
woman to reproduce. It is fertility, on the other hand,
sometimes known as refers to the social environment
fecundity, which is the that determines the actual and
physical ablility to reproduce. number of children to be
Thus, a woman is said to be bom,given the capacity to
fecund if she is capable of reproduce.
producing children, or sterlle,
if she cannot.
• Mortality
- Mortality refers to the number of death in a given population.

- There are two biological aspects of mortality. These are lifespan

and longevity. The former refers to the oldest age to which human
beings can survive. In other words, it pertains to how long a person
can, possibly live. The latter refers to the ability to remain alive
from one year to the next. It is also sometimes known as the abilty
to resist death. While lifespan is almost entirely a biological
phenomenon, longevity on the other hand has both biological and
soclal components.
• MIGRATION
- refers to the relatively permanent movement of people with the
purpose of changing their residence.
2 types of migration

internal international migration

- Internal involves permanent - International migration
change of residence within involves a permanent
national boundarles, and may movement across national
sometimes refer only as a boundaries.
movement.
The population pyramid is a graphical representation of the entire
population'according toage and gender.

Population Pyramid of Developed and Developing Nation

(1995 and 2005 Compared)
To determine whether the population has increased over
time, the formula of the balancing equation is applied as
follows:

P2=P1+(B-D)+.{IM-OM)

P2 = population at the later date

P1 = population at the earlier date
B = birth between earlier and later dates
D = birth between earlier and later dates
IM = In-migration between earlier and later dates
OM = Out-migration between earlier and later dates
 In order to have a substantial analysis about the population,
various sources of data are used by the demographers.

Population Census Vital Statistics Sample Surveys

Important sources of the
It is a device used by Pertains to the population data.They are
the governments in important events in often resorted to when
order to determine how the life of aperson population censuses and
many people were such as births, deaths, vital registrations are
under their rule, who marriages, divorces, suspected to be inaccurate
the taxpayers were, and and abortions. or erroneous, or when they
who were the potential are found to beincomplete
laborers and soldlers. or underreported.
Early Theories on Population
Maltus vs. Marx
Thomas Robert Malthius Karl Marx
Malthusian Theory (1798)

Population grows geometrically (2, 4, 8, 16…)

Food supply grows arithmetically (2, 4, 6, 8…)
Causes a gap → leads to poverty and famine
Positive vs Preventive Checks (Malthus)

Positive checks: famine, poverty, disease

Preventive checks: delay marriage, fewer
children
Favored moral restraint over contraception
Criticisms of Malthus

Ignored technological advances in farming

Failed to predict rise in premarital sex
Overemphasized natural limits
Marxist View on Population

Population growth is not the problem

Capitalism causes poverty
Large population = more manpower
Development is the Best Contraception

Improve education, jobs, and housing

Better life = smaller families
Inequality still affects poorer nations
 Key Differences: Malthus vs Marx

Malthus: Marx:
Population causes poverty Capitalism causes poverty
Wants less reproduction Supports development
Sees population as a threat Sees population as a resource
The Theory of the Demographic
Transition
 The Theory of the Demographic Transition explains global rapid population
growth as a shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
Demographers, using a historical perspective, identified three stages in this
continuous transition:
Stage 1: High birth and death rates with little population growth.
Stage 2: Declining death rate, primarily the result of reduction in infant
death, along with medium fertility - resulting to significant population
growth.
Stage 3: Low birth and death rates with little population growth.
The First Stage: High Birth Rate and High Death Rate

The first stage in the demographic transition was theorized to have been
experienced by all countries in the world. It started since the beginning of
human civilization until after the Intellectual Revolution, when advances
in medicine and technology came to the fore in a civilized society.
Although most of reasons are related to poor access to health and
medicine, hence high mortality levels, there are some equally cultural
reasons why high birth rate is apparent in the period.
 High fertility was encouraged culturally and economically:
Children were seen as security and labor, especially in agricultural
societies.
Strong social pressure to marry and bear children, especially sons.
Couples were honored for having large families.
Mortality kept population stable despite high fertility.
The Second Stage: High Birth Rate and Low Death Rate

The second demographic transitional shift, as estimated by most

demographers, took sometime in the 1800s. This period is characterized by
the reduction in contagious and infectious diseases that probably caused
the high mortality rate in the previous stage. Some preventive measure
came along the way, such as governmental health measures of quarantine,
and compulsory mass vaccination especially among children. With the
improvement in medical technology comes with it an improvement in
nutrition and personal hygiene. Mortality due to famine was also lessened
with the improvement in food storage and transportation.
The Third Stage: Low Birth Rate and Low Mortality Rate
The third stage in the demographic transition is one characterized by a fertility rate
almost the same as that of the mortality, thereby resulting to what demographers
say, "zero population growth." It is the stage marked by low birth and death rates—
currently experienced mainly by more developed countries, which have reached or
fallen below replacement fertility levels. While some studies suggest that less and
least developed countries are nearing this stage, fertility rates in these regions
remain around 3.0, though this marks a significant decline from past levels. Experts
predict that these countries will eventually reach the third stage. Societal changes
contributing to this shift include a focus on child survival over high birth rates,
improved economic conditions leading to greater investment in child welfare and
education, and the declining view of children as a form of old-age security due to
the rise of government retirement programs.
Criticism against the Theory of Demographic Transition

There are however, several criticisms against the theory

of the demographic transition. First, the demographic
transition is not a law of "population growth", but rather a
general description on how population grows in
industrial societies. Being merely descriptive, it is not
therefore predictive of the future population trend, and if
demographers attempt to predict, such predictions would
rather be uncertain for lack of accurate data. Therefore,
the demographic transition is more confined to current
state of the world population, the future being a
phenomenon subject to be seen.
 IS THERE A SECOND
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION?
 IS THERE A SECOND
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION?
Recent developments in demography suggest that the
world is undergoing a second demographic transition.

This transition is marked by a significant decline in

birth rates, falling below the replacement level, while
mortality rates remain low.
 EFFECTS
As a result, populations are aging, and the number
of young people is decreasing. This shift leads to a
broader aging population and a narrowing base of
younger generations.
 CAUSES
The second demographic transition is driven by social
changes, including couples delaying marriage and
childbirth, increased use of contraception, higher rates
of cohabitation, rising divorce rates, and a decline in
traditional family patterns.
 RESPONSE AND CHALLENGES

To address the declining population, countries

promote "replacement migration," encouraging
immigrants to help sustain population numbers and
balance the aging demographic structure.
 CRITICISMS AND OBSERVATIONS

Critics argue that the second demographic transition

mainly affects Western or more developed countries,
and it is uncertain if the trend will also happen in less
developed nations. Some also believe it is just an
extension
of the first demographic transition.
 NON-WESTERN CASES

However, non-Western countries like Japan and Hong

Kong also experience an aging population, showing
that the second demographic transition has unique
social and cultural factors, making it distinct from the
first transition.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT:
A CONTEMPORARY DEBATE
This presentation discusses one of the most significant
issues in the modern world—the relationship between
population and development. It highlights the
contrasting views on whether population growth
hinders or enhances national progress and how
different approaches shape policy and outcomes.
INTRODUCTION TO THE DEBATE
The debate around population and development is
centered on whether an increasing population supports
or threatens national development. According to the
Malthusian principle, rapid population growth can
outpace resource availability, leading to poverty and
underdevelopment. This perspective warns that more
people mean more demand for limited resources, which
can slow a country's progress if not managed properly.
 POPULATION AS A THREAT
One school of thought believes that limiting
population growth is essential for national
development. Without control, population can
surpass the planet’s “carrying capacity,” resulting in
resource scarcity. For instance, studies in Africa have
shown that some countries are already experiencing
population pressure that exceeds their water
resource capacity. According to this view, unchecked
population growth undermines development efforts.
 COUNTER-ARGUEMENT:
POPULATION AS A RESOURCE
Opposing this view, another group argues that the issue
lies not in population size but in inequality and poor
resource distribution. They suggest that a growing
population can become a national asset if properly
developed. With the right investments, especially in
education and employment, more people mean more
hands to work and contribute to the economy. Population,
therefore, can be a powerful driver of growth when given
opportunities.
 REAL-WORLD APPLICATION
Experiences from developed countries show that well-
planned development policies can stabilize population
growth naturally. By investing in human capital and
improving quality of life, individuals are more likely to
choose smaller families. In countries like South Korea
and Japan, economic growth has been accompanied by
population control through better access to education
and employment.
 FINDING BALANCE
The ongoing debate cannot be resolved by choosing one
side over the other. Development and population control
must work together to achieve sustainable progress.
Limiting population without addressing development
goals is aimless, while focusing solely on development
without population control is shallow. A balanced and
integrated approach is necessary for long-term success.
 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
To ensure sustainable development, governments
must implement both population and developmental
strategies. This includes promoting family planning,
improving healthcare for women, enhancing
education, and creating job opportunities. Such
policies not only control population growth but also
empower citizens to become productive contributors
to the nation’s economy.
Food Security – Concepts,
Facts, and Issues
 OVERVIEW
• Food security is a major global concern.
• A significant portion of the population
lacks access to adequate nutrition.
• Food production and distribution remain
key challenges.
Definition and Pillars
According to the World Summit on Food Security,
food security exists when all individuals have
consistent access physically, socially, and
economically to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food.

The key pillars of food security are:

1. Availability
2. Access
3. Utilization
4. Stability
Additionally, the nutritional dimension has been recognized
as a critical fifth element (Saravia-Matus et al., 2012).
 FOOD AVAILABILITY VS. POPULATION GROWTH

• Malthusian theory suggests food production cannot keep pace with

population growth.

• Estimates predict a 70% increase in production is required by 2050

to feed 9 billion people.

• Food waste is a significant issue that could reduce the demand for
increased production.
 Food Waste and Its
Impact
• Smith (2000) found that 1,400 kcal per person per
day is lost due to waste.
• Reducing food waste could significantly lower the
required food production increase.
• Efficient food distribution and storage solutions
are necessary to minimize waste.
FOOD ACCESS AND
POVERTY

• National food surplus does not guarantee

food security.

• Smith’s study of 58 countries showed food

insecurity is often highest in poor
households.

• Economic inequality plays a significant role

in food accessibility.
 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
These findings echo Karl Marx’s theory of
unequal resource distribution as a cause of
human suffering. Addressing both
inequality in food access and waste could
significantly mitigate food insecurity.

NUTRITIONAL DIMENSIONS
Food security is not only about having food
it must be nutritious. Even with equitable
distribution, one study suggests current
food supplies would only meet dietary
needs for a third of the global population.
 Group 9

Thank You
Very Much!