Chapter 7
Population of Ethiopia and the Horn
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Outlines
• Population Data: Uses and Sources
• Population Dynamics (Fertility, Mortality & Migration)
• Population Characteristics in Ethiopia (Levels & Trends)
• Fertility and Mortality
• Migration
• Age & Sex Ratio
• Distribution
• Socio-cultural Aspects of Ethiopian Population
• Education,
• Health and
• Languages
• Settlement Types and Patterns
• Urbanization in Ethiopia
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Introduction
▪ Many disciplines study human population
▪ Geography,
▪ Demography,
▪ Economics,
▪ Epidemiology,
▪ Sociology and many more
▪ The study of population in Geography aims at explaining
regional/ spatial differences on
▪ Population distribution and densities,
▪ Population numbers,
▪ Human-environment interactions,
▪ Population dynamics
▪ Population characteristics (age, sex, education and
health composition etc.). 3
Population Data: Uses and Sources
Uses (Why we need Population Data?)
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Why we need Population Data?
• Regular and reliable population data are vital for effective
socioeconomic development planning and administration
– To plan for the provision of infrastructures such as schools,
hospitals, roads, water and sewerage facilities, housing
– Establishing voting district boundaries,
– Estimating future tax revenue and
– Designing public programs.
• Hence, demographic data are crucial to
• Administrators,
• Businessmen,
• Researchers,
• Academicians and
• Planners.
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Sources of Population Data
➢ There are three conventional sources of obtaining population
data. These are:
1. Census
2. Sample Survey &
3. Vital Registration
1. Census
Def_
▪ The total process of collecting, compiling and publishing
demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time
(s) to all persons in a defined territory.
▪ Major characteristics of Census
• Universality (inclusion of all persons)
• Periodicity (Regular time interval, every 10 or 5 years)
• Simultaneity (undertaken at a very limited time duration
called the census day/night)
• Government sponsorship
• Expensiveness
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Procedures for collecting census data
• Dejure Approach
– it involves counting people according to their usual place of
residence (where he/she lives most of the time).
• It gives a picture of the total permanent population of an area
• Defacto Approach
– Each individual is recorded at the place where he/she was
found at the time of the census.
• Data from most censuses and sample surveys include:
– geographic location, age, sex, marital status, citizenship,
and place of birth, relationship to the head of household,
religion, educational characteristics, occupation, fertility,
income, language, ethnic characteristics, disabilities and
migration.
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Sample Survey
• Def_
➢ A method in which a sample is selected with the view that
information acquired would represent the entire population.
➢ Sampling may also be used with censuses in order to obtain more
detailed information to supplement census data
– This method is advantageous over census as
• Cost (low)
• simple to administer
• faster
• easier data handling and processing
• Weaknesses
– Sampling errors and inadequate coverage.
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Vital Registration
Def_
▪ A system of continuous, permanent, compulsory and legal
recording of vital events like births, deaths, marriages,
divorces, and adoptions.
▪ More precise than that of census/sample survey and the
system provides time series data.
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Problems of Population Data
• Factors affecting the quality of population data/
causes of data inaccuracy:-
– Poor and inadequately financed methods of collection;
– Poorly trained enumerator;
– Suspicion and ignorance of censuses and
– False statements specially of age and income;
– Constant changes in administrations;
– Omission of more inaccessible areas;
– Difference in connotation of terms like language, ethnicity, and
occupation.
• The errors are likely to be introduced at the stage of data collection,
data processing, analyses and the writing up of the report.
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Population Dynamics
▪ The population of any country grows/declines as a result of
the combined effect of 3 demographic variables:
• Fertility,
• Mortality and
• Migration
▪ In Ethiopia, fertility and mortality are the two principal
determinants of population growth as international
migration is insignificant
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Demographic Measurements
Measurements of Fertility
A. Crude Birth Rate(CBR)
▪ The simplest and most commonly used
▪ The number of live births per 1000 population
CBR =
12
C. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
▪ The average number of children that a woman would have at
the end of her reproductive period
TFR =
Where, Bi = Total live births in age group i,
Wi =Total number of women in age group ( 7 age groups)
• 1= 15-19, • 4 = 30-34,
• 5 = 35-39,
• 2=20-24 • 6=40-44,
• 3=25-29, • 7= 45-49
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Cont’d
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Measures of Mortality
A. Crude Death Rate (CDR)
– The number of deaths per 1000 population in a year
CDR =
16
D. Life Expectancy at Birth
▪ This is also called span of life or longevity of life.
– the average number of years that a newly born baby is expected to
live.
– Is a summary measure of the mortality experience of the whole pop
E. The Rate of Natural Increase (NRI)
▪ the d/ce b/n CBR & CDR expressed in percentage
NRI= (CBR - CDR)
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Population Characteristics in Ethiopia
(Levels & Trends)
Ethiopia
▪ 1984 = 42.2 million (growth rate 2.9%)
▪ 1994 = 53.5 million
▪ 2007 = 73.8 million
▪ 2019 = 112 million
o 2nd from Africa next to Nigeria
o 12th in the world (growth rate 2.6%)
o 80% is rural based
o 65% of the population < 24 years of age
o The population is unevenly distributed
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Fertility and Mortality rates (Ethiopia)
– Generally high birth & death rates with Significant spatiotemporal variation
– Urban areas have lower birth and death rates
• Women in Rural have an average of (5.2) and Urban (2.3) children
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined
• 7.52 in 1984
• 6.74 in 1994
• 4.6 in 2019
– TFR by region
• lowest in Addis Ababa (1.8 children per woman) 2016
• Highest in Somali Region (7.2 children per woman)
• Mortality Rates (IMR) (a declining trend)
– Before 2000, 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births,
– 2011, <100, except for Benishangul Gumuz.
– 2016, 54 country level (Urban (48), Rural (62))
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Life Expectancy at birth (Ethiopia)
• 36.7 years = 1960s
• 62.6 years in 2016
– Female (65.4) years)
– Male (61.2) years)(men are more likely to take life-threatening
risks and to die in car accident, brawls or gun fights)
– Greater for urban areas than rural
• All demographic rates are high and life expectancies are low for developing
countries.
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Why High Birth Rate in Ethiopia?
• As opposed to declining death rates, birth rates have remained
high due to:
▪ Little family planning practices (lack of population education)
▪ Lower status of women
▪ Early marriage, particularly of females;
▪ Parents consideration of children as assets, though little obliged for
their education, health;
▪ The relatively high infant and child mortality rates, that trigger
couples to have more births to compensate for the loses and
▪ Perhaps religious influences.
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• Consequences of this rapid population growth
▪ Low per capita GNP
▪ Increased unemployment & under -employment
▪ Mounting social ills (destitution, begging, theft, prostitution)
▪ Continuous inflation
▪ Shortage of cultivated land and food shortages
▪ Overcrowding of infrastructural and social facilities
▪ Environmental problems
The total value of all the goods and services
produced by a country in a year including income
from foreign investments, divided by the number of
people living there. 24
Migration in Ethiopia and the Horn
Migration
Def_
▪ Geographic mobility
▪ Change of residence b/n clearly defined geographic units.
❖ Multifaceted Implications of Migration:
• Increased level of urbanization
• Rural-urban linkages (creating an integrated economy)
• It influences spatial population distribution
• Influences human fertility and mortality patterns and levels;
• Affects age and sex composition of the population
• Cause & consequence of inequality & unequal development
• Cause & consequence of diversity, mechanism of spreading cultures
• Strengthening of a sense of nationhood and national unity
• Creates a creative and open society to new ideas than a
homogenous group of people 25
Determinants of Migration (Factors of Migration)
A number of factors affect migration.
▪ Economic,
▪ Social &
▪ Ecological considerations
▪ Individual perceptions and behavior.
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Migration Types (Internal and International)
A. Internal Migration in Ethiopia
• Migratory movements have been going on for millennia
• Accelerated in the early 20th C with the rise in urban
centers as well as the Italian occupation.
• Migration during the Derg Regime was low.
– The 1976/77 “land to the tiller” granted land to the rural landless farmers,
– urban unemployment and underemployment
– The Derge was also taking away whoever is scrounging around in the city as
soldiers to the warfront etc
• Currently, the ethnic politics & associated
administrative barriers are said to discourage inter-
regional migration
• But still high level of internal migration (16.6% migrant
population) (2007, Census)
• Landlessness of emerging rural youth;
• Drought and rainfall unreliability in the highlands; and
• Land degradation etc
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B. International Migration
• Large number of emigrants overseas
• Accelerated after the 1974 revolution where many refugees
were attempting:
o to escape political conflict, persecution and famine.
o the independence struggle of Eritrea 1961-91 led to violent clashes
o Red Terror 1976-79 generated massive emigration
• Today, Ethiopia's diaspora, estimated to be about 4 million
• Large numbers of Ethiopian migrants are found in the Middle
East, USA, Canada, Europe and African countries (such as
Sudan, Kenya, South Africa and Botswana).
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The Causes of Cross-border Migration
▪ Lack of employment and livelihood opportunities
▪ Negative attitudes attached with low paying and informal job
▪ Poor work ethics amongst the youth.
▪ Unfavorable political context and insecurity, civil war
▪ Ethiopia's Long boundary which makes border management difficult
▪ Local brokers with networks extending to countries of destination;
▪ Misinformation and false promises by brokers
▪ Success Stories of pioneering migrants; family and peer pressure
▪ Emergence of ‘culture of migration’ and migration networks
▪ Demand-side factors of migration(shortage of labour in low-paying,
informal, and perilous/unsafe jobs, such as domestic work, construction,
agriculture in destination countries)
❖ ILO in 2016 identified the following migration source areas of Ethiopia :
1. Dessie (North and South Wollo) area;
2. Shashemene (Western Arsi and Bale) area;
3. Jimma (Western Ethiopia) area: includes Kaffa, Wolega and Iluababora
4. Mekelle/Tigray area: 29
Ethiopia
– Is a country of Origin, transit & destination for
international migration
– Appears to be a hub on 3 land routes:
1. From the Horn of Africa via Sudan, Chad, Egypt and Libya
to the Mediterranean Sea towards Europe
2. Through Somalia and Djibouti to Yemen across the Gulf of
Aden and Red Sea towards the Middle East.
3. Southern irregular route that is an overland route Kenya
Tanzania towards to South Africa.
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▪ As a major destination country Ethiopia hosts:
▪ Too Many migrants,
▪ refugees and
▪ asylum seekers entering Ethiopia from neighboring countries
of South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan.
▪ the 2nd largest number of refugees in Africa
▪ According to UNHCR 2019, 1 million population
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