Probability
Lesson 9 - Grade 6
What is probability?
● Probability is the likelihood of something happening (the chance that something will happen)
● Example: The probability of rolling a 4 on a six-sided die, spinning blue on a wheel
Key terms
● Probability: the likelihood of something happening
● Outcome: a possible result of an event
● Probability scale: 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain)
Probability scale
● 0: Impossible (rolling a 7 on a six-sided die)
● 0.5: Equally likely (flipping a coin)
● 1: Certain (the sun will rise tomorrow)
Calculating the probability of an event
# of ways an event can happen
Probability =
Total # of possible outcomes
Calculating the probability of an event
What are the chances that you will roll a 4 on a six-sided die?
# of ways an event can happen
Probability =
Total # of possible outcomes
1
=
6
Review of converting fractions to decimals
Divide numerator from denominator
1
Probability =
6
= 0.17
Review of converting decimals to percentages
Multiply decimal by 100 (move the decimal two places to the right ->)
Probability = 0.17
= 17%
Let’s try some exercises!
Calculate the likelihood of the following events from happening.
1. What are the chances of rolling an even number on a six-sided die?
2. What are the chances in a percentage of flipping heads on a coin?
Let’s try some exercises!
Calculate the likelihood of the following events from happening.
3. What are the chances as a decimal that you will spin the color green?
4. What are the chances of drawing a green marble as a fraction?
Let’s try some exercises!
Calculate the likelihood of the following events from happening.
3. What are the chances of rolling a number divisible by 3 on a six-sided die?
4. What are the chances of drawing a marble?
Let’s try some word problems!
1. Ellie is playing a game with her friend, Aaron. She places a ball under one of three cups, making
sure that Aaron cannot see which cup the ball is under. She tells Aaron to choose one cup and
pick it up. What is the probability (as a percentage) that Aaron will pick the cup with the ball?
Using the scale below, use words to describe this probability.
Let’s try some word problems!
2. Gordon is rolling a six-sided die. What is the probability that he will roll a number less than 4? Using
the scale below, use words to describe this probability.
Let’s try some word problems!
3. Cecilia has a bag of marbles. There are 4 blue marbles, 2 green marbles, 3 red marbles, and 1 yellow
marble. What is the probability as a percentage that she will pick a marble that is not green?
Let’s try some word problems!
4. The weather forecast says there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow. What is the probability that it will
not rain? Express your answer as a fraction and a decimal.