US PracticalGeostatistics2000
US PracticalGeostatistics2000
2000
Isobel Clark
Geostokos (Ecosse) Limited,
Scotland
William V Harper
Otterbein University, Westerville,
Ohio, USA
Geostatistics books by Isobel Clark and Bill Harper
Practical Geostatistics 2000 Book and CD, ISBN 0‐9703317‐2‐X, ISBN‐13: 978‐0‐9703317‐2‐4
Used from the United States to South Africa, this book by Isobel Clark and Bill Harper has helped shed light on
what really goes on in geostatistics. No longer must it be a black box. This book has the math but explains the
conceptual underpinnings in clear concise terms. It abounds with real data examples. For the ultimate learning
experience, the book and the CD! The CD contains the Practical Geostatistics 2000 software and the kriging game.
Practical Geostatistics 2000, Answers to the Exercises, ISBN 0‐9703317‐3‐8, ISBN‐13: 978‐0‐9703317‐3‐1
This 382 page book is the ideal companion to Practical Geostatistics 2000. Get inside the heads of the authors for
an adventure on how they approach problems. This is not your typical solutions book. It does not provide "the
solution" but rather shows our approach and our answer to these real problems.
Ecosse North America LLC, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
umpteenth Reprint, November 2008
The 1979 Practical Geostatistics started with a quotation from the poem “The Chorus”
in Edwin Morgan’s anthology The New Divan, published by Carcanet/Manchester in 1977:
For this new book, longer and (we hope) much improved,
we use a longer – but just as ironic – quotation:
We have a favour to ask of you, the readers - we want your guidance on what changes should
be made in subsequent editions. We hope to update this book fairly frequently as we are
publishing this ourselves and have total control over what it contains, how many copies are
printed, etc. In addition to sending us questions and typos, we hope that you will take the
time to specify what new topics we should add (or what topics should be expanded). Make
sure Isobel gets a copy of all such comments. E-mail her at [email protected] and she will
post all typos and major comments on the web page
Notation
1. Introduction Page 1
1.1 Expectations
1.2 The problem to be solved
1.3 Data sets
1.4 Software
Tables
Data Sets
Index
Preface
This is the bit where the authors traditionally thank everyone who helped in the production
of the book and set the tone for the rest of the tome.
Isobel Clark
Isobel:
Thanks guys and girls. There are way too many people who have made contributions over the
years to expect to cover them all. The 11 years at the Royal School of Mines in London and
the 10 at the University of the Witwatersrand form the basis for the teaching material and
exercises in the bulk of these chapters. Open short courses and in-house courses to all manner
of audiences added to and enhanced both the direction of the teaching and the exercises
provided. So to all those ex-undergraduates, ex-postgraduates and course participants on
four continents, thanks.
Thanks to Dick Minnit, Fred Cawood and Hennie Greyvenstein in Johannesburg for bugging
me until the book actually got written. Thanks to Audun Clark for unconditional support.
Thanks to Gavin Lind for assistance in courses and ancillary material. And, of course, endless
thanks to my co-author who made all this possible.................
This book is intended for self-study, especially in its CD form. We hope to develop this into a
full interactive teaching medium in the future. You can also study the book and gain academic
credits at http://www.edumine.com. All comments are welcome although positive criticism
is likely to get more response!
Bill: Many moons ago in the early 1980s Howard Hume and I were trying to dig into
the seemingly strange field of geostatistics. Much was not intuitive and seemed to hide
behind a strange wall of jargon. Howard and I decided to contact those individuals that
we felt might be able to shed light down the borehole. Fortunately we heard from Isobel
(whose 1979 book was one of the few readable geostatistics publications at that time)
and she changed her next U.S. trip to come to Columbus to visit us at Battelle in 1984.
As they say, the rest is history. Isobel and I collaborated on numerous articles in the
1980s. Perhaps my biggest claim to geostatistical fame was publishing the Wolfcamp data
in my first geostatistical analysis. This resulted in many publications by others using this
particular set of data.
In the late 1980s I moved away from environmental geostatistical applications after the
Battelle high-level nuclear waste program was terminated by the U.S. government. Until
early 1999 most of my 1990s efforts have been focused on more classical statistical methods,
operations research, quality management, and discrete event simulation. In Spring 1999
Isobel was staying at our place for a few days’ visit. After several enjoyable beverages, I
raised the issue of her many years of promising to update her book. The result of that
discussion is now before your eyes. As the Grateful Dead used to sing, “What a long,
strange trip it’s been”.
I would like to recognize the invaluable support from my lovely wife, Paula, and daughter,
Rachel. I am also thankful of the continued good support of Otterbein College. Finally, I
want to thank Isobel for being Isobel.
Please send us any and all feedback. We hope to update this often to meet your requests.
51 wr xvh wkdw lqwhusuhwdwlrq wr suhglfw olnho| ydoxhv dw orfdwlrqv zklfk kdyh qrw |hw ehhq
vdpsohg1
Wr vhw wkh vfhqh iru wkh uhvw ri wkh errn/ ohw xv lpdjlqh wkdw wkhuh lv d +pruh ru ohvv, frqwlqxrxv
skhqrphqrq zklfk fryhuv d vwxg| duhd +ru yroxph,1
Vrph vdpsohv kdyh ehhq wdnhq ryhu wkh vwxg| duhd dqg wkhlu orfdwlrqv qrwhg1 Phdvxuhphqwv
kdyh ehhq pdgh rq wkh vdpsohv wdnhq1 Rxu pdmru wdvn lv wr hvwlpdwh wkh olnho| ydoxh dw d
orfdwlrq zklfk kdv qrw ehhq vdpsohg1
Wkhuh duh pdq| glhuhqw zd|v wr wdfnoh wklv sureohp1 Wklv errn fryhuv mxvw rqh dssurdfk
zklfk lv edvhg rq d zhoo ghqhg vhw ri dvvxpswlrqv1 Rwkhu dvvxpswlrqv ohdg wr rwkhu phwkrgv1
zloo wdfnoh wkrvh dv zh frph wr wkhp lq wkh wh{w1 Zh zloo dovr glvfxvv wkh vkruwfrplqjv ri wkh
whfkqltxhv zklfk zloo eh ghyhorshg dv dqg zkhq dssursuldwh1 Wkh lqwhqwlrq ri wklv errn lv wr
jlyh wkh uhdghu dq xqghuvwdqglqj ri wkh vwdwlvwlfdo dqg jhrvwdwlvwlfdo whfkqltxhv zklfk pljkw
eh xvhixo/ qrw wr od| grzq dq| odzv dqg uhjxodwlrqv rq zkdw vkrxog dqg vkrxog qrw eh xvhg1
Wkh vwdwlvwlfdo sruwlrqv ri wklv errn duh lqwhqghg wr od| wkh jurxqgzrun iru wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo
dqdo|vlv1 Pxfk ri wklv pdwhuldo fdq eh irxqg lq irxqgdwlrq vwdwlvwlfv errnv exw qrw lq wkh
fxuuhqw frqwh{w1 Wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo sruwlrqv ri wkh errn dvvxph wkdw |rx kdyh pdvwhuhg wkh
vwdwlvwlfdo whfkqltxhv ghvfulehg hduolhu1 Lw lv qrw dgylvdeoh wr cvnls dkhdg* rq wkh dvvxpswlrq
wkdw zkdw lv ehlqj glvfxvvhg kdv qr uhohydqfh wr |rxu rzq lqwhuhvwv1 Wkh ghyhorsphqw lv
h{wuhpho| olqhdu/ lq wkdw rqh vhfwlrq ohdgv lqwr dqrwkhu1 Wkhuh duh h{fhswlrqv wr wklv/ ri
frxuvh1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li |rx zloo qhyhu kdyh wr ghdo zlwk vnhzhg gdwd/ |rx fdq vnls wkh fkdswhu
rq wkh orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq dqg lwv yduldqwv1 Li |rx zloo qhyhu ghdo zlwk pruh wkdq rqh
phdvxuhphqw shu vdpsoh/ |rx fdq vnls prvw ri wkh Uhodwlrqvklsv fkdswhu1 Li |rx qhyhu ghdo
zlwk gdwd zklfk kdv d wuhqg lq wkh ydoxhv/ |rx fdq vnls doo exw wkh uvw ihz sdjhv ri wkdw
fkdswhu1
Frdo= d vlpxodwhg vhw ri gdwd edvhg rq d uhdo frdo vhdp lq Vrxwkhuq Diulfd1 Eruhkrohv
guloohg lqwr wkh frdo vhdp duh phdvxuhg iru= wklfnqhvv ri frdo +phwuhv,/ hqhuj| frqwhqw
ru cfdorulf ydoxh* ri frdo +Phjdmrxohv shu wrqqh,> dvk frqwhqw +(, dqg vxoskxu frqwhqw
+(,1 Wkuhh fr0ruglqdwhv lq phwuhv duh dydlodeoh iru wkh wrs ri wkh frdo vhdp zkhuh
lqwhuvhfwhg e| wkh gulookroh1
JDVD= wklv gdwd vhw lv qdphg iru wkh Jhrvwdwlvwlfdo Dvvrfldwlrq ri Vrxwk Diulfd dqg
zdv xvhg lq dq looxvwudwlrq ri jhrvwdwlvwlfdo whfkqltxhv dw d phhwlqj lq Dsulo 4<;: lq
Mrkdqqhvexuj1 Wkh vdpsoh gdwd duh wdnhq iurp ghhs eruhkrohv guloohg lqwr d w|slfdo
Zlwzdwhuvudqg w|sh jrog uhhi1 Wkh phdvxuhphqwv ri lqwhuhvw duh wkh judgh ri wkh jrog
lq judpv shu wrqqh ri urfn +sduwv shu ploolrq, dqg wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh uhhi lqwhuvhfwlrq
lq wkh eruhkroh +fhqwlphwuhv,1 Wkh 5: eruhkrohv olh dssur{lpdwho| 4 nlorphwuh dsduw dqg
frqvwlwxwh d w|slfdo gdwd vhw iru wkh sodqqlqj dqg ghvljq ri d qhz Zlwv jrog plqh1 Wkh
ydoxhv kdyh ehhq glvjxlvhg e| d idfwru exw duh rwkhuzlvh xqdowhuhg1 Fr0ruglqdwhv duh lq
phwuhv1
Vdpsohv= wklv gdwd vhw lv edvhg rq d Zlwv w|sh jrog plqh vrph ghfdghv lqwr surgxfwlrq1
Wkh vdpsohv duh fklsshg iurp wkh idfh ri wkh uhhi lq d zrunlqj vhfwlrq ri wkh plqh
+vwrsh,1 Dv wkh idfh dgydqfhv/ qhz fkls vdpsohv duh wdnhq1 Ydoxhv zlwklq d vwrsh
duh wudglwlrqdoo| hvwlpdwhg xvlqj wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv iurp wkh idfh1 Wklv gdwd lv wrwdoo|
fwlwlrxv h{fhsw iru wkh orfdwlrqv ri wkh vdpsohv/ zklfk duh wdnhq iurp d uhdo Zlwv w|sh
jrog plqh1
Frsshu= d vlpxodwlrq edvhg rq d vwrfnsloh ri plqhg pdwhuldo lq wkh iruphu Vrylhw Xqlrq1
Eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lqwr wkh gxps1 Wkh guloo fruh lv fxw hyhu| 8 phwuhv dqg
dvvd|hg iru frsshu dqg fredow frqwhqw lq shufhqwdjh e| zhljkw1 Wklv lv wkh rqo| wkuhh
glphqvlrqdo vhw ri wxwruldo gdwd1 Fr0ruglqdwhv duh lq phwuhv1
Jhhyru= wklv lv vdpsoh gdwd iurp d k|gurwkhupdo wlq ghsrvlw lq Fruqzdoo/ Hqjodqg1 Wkh
plqhudolvdwlrq dsshduv dv d frqwlqxrxv yhlq zklfk lv vxe0yhuwlfdo1 Vdpsohv ri durxqg
4nj duh fklsshg dfurvv wkh yhlq/ zklfk dyhudjhv derxw 57 lqfkhv zlgh1 Phdvxuhphqwv
duh judgh ri wlq lq srxqgv ri eodfn wlq +VqR , shu wrq ri urfn1 Wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh
yhlq ru corgh* lv phdvxuhg wr wkh qhduhvw lqfk1 Fr0ruglqdwhv duh lq ihhw dorqj vhfwlrq dqg
hohydwlrq deryh dq duelwudu| edvh ohyho1
Fodun/ L1/ 4<:</ Grhv jhrvwdwlvwlfv zrunB/ Surf1 49wk DSFRP/ Wkrpdv M R*Qhlo/ Hg1/
Vrflhw| ri Plqlqj Hqjlqhhuv ri DLPH Lqf/ Qhz \run/ 54605581
Vfdoorsv= Vfdoors gdwd zhuh froohfwhg gxulqj d 4<<3 vxuyh| fuxlvh r wkh hdvw frdvw ri
Qruwk Dphulfd1 Vfdoors frxqwv zhuh rewdlqhg xvlqj d guhgjh1 Dq| vfdoors vpdoohu wkdq
:3 pp zdv whuphg d suhuhfuxlw1 Wrwdo fdwfk lv wkh vxp ri suhuhfuxlwv dqg uhfuxlwv1
Phdvxuhphqwv lqfoxghg lq wkh gdwd oh duh=
Qdwlrqdo Pdulqh Ilvkhulhv Vhuylfh +QPIV, 7 gljlw vwudwd ghvljqdwru lq zklfk wkh
vdpsoh zdv wdnhq>
vdpsoh qxpehu shu |hdu udqjlqj iurp 4 wr dssur{lpdwho| 783>
orfdwlrq lq whupv ri odwlwxgh dqg orqjlwxgh ri hdfk vdpsoh lq wkh Dwodqwlf Rfhdq>
wrwdo qxpehu ri vfdoorsv fdxjkw dw wkh vdpsoh orfdwlrq>
qxpehu ri vfdoorsv zkrvh vkhoo ohqjwk lv vpdoohu wkdq :3 ploolphwhuv>
qxpehu ri vfdoorsv zkrvh vkhoo ohqjwk lv :3 ploolphwhuv ru odujhu1
Uhihuhqfh= Hfnhu/ P1G1/ dqg Khowvkh/ M1I1 4<<71 Jhrvwdwlvwlfdo hvwlpdwhv ri Vfdoors
Dexqgdqfh/ Lq/ Fdvh Vwxglhv lq Elrphwu|/ Odqjh hw do1/ hglwruv1 Zloh|/ Qhz \run
Rujdqlfv= Gdwd duh Vrlo Rujdqlf Pdwwhu ydoxhv +lq judpv shu nlorjudp, ghulyhg iurp vrlo
vdpsohv wdnhq lq d uhvhdufk hog dw wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Qheudvnd Zhvw Fhqwudo Uhvhdufk
dqg H{whqvlrq Fhqwhu qhdu Qruwk Sodwwh/ Qheudvnd/ XVD1 Gdwd zhuh wdnhq dv sduw ri
h{shulphqwv rq yduldeoh0udwh ihuwlol}hu whfkqrorj|1 Fr0ruglqdwhv duh lq phwuhv1
Uhihuhqfh= Jrwzd|/ F1D1 dqg Khujhuw/ J1Z1 +4<<:,1 Lqfrusrudwlqj Vsdwldo Wuhqgv
dqg Dqlvrwurs| lq Jhrvwdwlvwlfdo Pdsslqj ri Vrlo Surshuwlhv1 Vrlo Vflhqfh ri Dphulfd
Mrxuqdo/ 94=5<;063<
Doo ri wkh deryh fdvh vwxglhv dsshdu vrphzkhuh zlwklq wkh wh{w1 Wkh gdwd ohv duh dydlodeoh
rq wkh FG dqg fdq eh grzqordghg iurp wkh Zhe1 Doo/ h{fhsw vdpsohv dqg srvvleo| frsshu/
duh vpdoo hqrxjk wr wdfnoh dw ghvnwrs dqg kdqg fdofxodwru ohyho1 Zh vwurqjo| uhfrpphqg wkdw
|rx fduu| rxw hdfk dqdo|vlv e| kdqg dw ohdvw rqfh wr uhlqirufh wkh zulwwhq wh{w1
4171 Vriwzduh
Li |rx kdyh wklv errn rq FG/ wkh glvn dovr frqwdlqv d cghpr* yhuvlrq ri wkh Jhrvwrnrv vriwzduh
fuhdwhg vshfldoo| iru whdfklqj1 Wklv yhuvlrq kdv voljkwo| pruh ihdwxuhv wkdq wkh HfrVVh sdfndjh
dqg udwkhu ohvv wkdq wkh ixoo Jhrvwrnrv Wrronlw1 Lw lv d Zlqgrzv edvhg sdfndjh zklfk fxuuhqwo|
rshudwhv xqghu Zlqgrzv <82<; dqg QW1 Iroorz wkh lqvwdoodwlrq lqvwuxfwlrqv vxssolhg zlwk wkh
sdfndjh1 Doo ri wkh deryh gdwd vhwv duh vxssolhg rq wkh glvn1
Li |rx kdyh wklv errn lq kdug frs|/ |rx pd| grzqordg wkh vriwzduh dqg gdwd vhwv iurp
wkh Zhe1 Fkhfn |rxu gholyhu| sdfndjh iru fxuuhqw lqvwuxfwlrqv1 Ixoo olvwlqjv ri wkh gdwd vhwv
+h{fhsw iru vdpsohv, duh jlyhq lq wkh Dsshqgl{1
Wkh vriwzduh lv lghqwlfdo wr wkh vwdqgdug Jhrvwrnrv HfrVVh dqg Wrronlw vriwzduh sdfndjhv
h{fhsw wkdw lw zloo rqo| uhdg wkh gdwd ohv vxssolhg zlwk wkh errn1
fkdudfwhulvh dqg lqwhusuhw wkh ehkdylrxu ri wkh vdpsoh gdwd zklfk zh douhdg| srvvhvv
frpelqh wkh dvvxpswlrqv/ wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq dqg vwdwlvwlfdo wkhru| wr surgxfh wkh ehvw
hvwlpdwh iru wkh xqnqrzq ydoxhv dqg sdudphwhuv zklfk zh vhhn
xvh wkdw wkhruhwlfdo edvh wr surylgh phdvxuhv ri xqfhuwdlqw| ru frqghqfh lq wkdw ehvw
hvwlpdwh
Lq wkh iroorzlqj fkdswhuv zh zloo ghyhors wkrvh vwdwlvwlfdo phwkrgv zklfk zh qhhg wr xqghu0
vwdqg ehiruh surfhhglqj wr wkh ixoo jhrvwdwlvwlfdo dssurdfk1 Wkh vwuhqjwkv dqg zhdnqhvvhv
ri jhrvwdwlvwlfv duh ehwwhu dssuhfldwhg li d wkrurxjk vwdwlvwlfdo edvh lv dydlodeoh wr wkh sudf0
wlwlrqhu1 Zh vwurqjo| uhfrpphqg wkdw |rx zrun wkurxjk wkh exon ri wkh vwdwlvwlfdo fkdswhuv
ehiruh prylqj rq wr wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo rqhv1 Qr sulru vwdwlvwlfdo nqrzohgjh lv dvvxphg iru wkh
iroorzlqj fkdswhuv1
Wklv lv dq h{huflvh zklfk Lvreho fduulhv rxw zlwk doo khu fodvvhv dqg kdv ehfrph d vwdqglqj
mrnh ryhu wkh odvw 58 ru vr |hduv1 Lw jlyhv wkh fodvv sduwlflsdqwv d vhw ri gdwd zklfk wkh| fdq
lpphgldwho| uhodwh wr/ vlqfh hdfk ri wkhp irupv d vdpsoh lq wkh gdwd vhw1 Wklv lv d yhu| idvw
dqg fkhds gdwd vhw/ wrr/ vlqfh prvw shrsoh nqrz krz wdoo wkh| duh1
4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
Sf SD SD .f .f .f . . .2 . .e .e
46 .e
.D .S .S .. .. .H .b .b Hf Hf H H.
47 48 49 4: 4; 4< 53 54 55 56 57 58
Lq wklv fdvh kdoi ri wkh fodvv lv vkruwhu wkdq +ru htxdo wr, 4:7 fp dqg kdoi wdoohu wkdq +ru
htxdo wr, wklv ydoxh1
Phdq Wkh whup phdq lv vwulfwo| dssolfdeoh wr dq| frpelqdwlrq ri wkh ydoxhv zklfk zhljkwv
doo ri wkh vdpsohv htxdoo|1 Wkhuh duh uhdoo| rqo| d frxsoh ri yduldwlrqv zklfk zh zloo
qhhg iru wklv errn=
vrphwlphv zulwwhq dv
y
x ?
x\
w
? }
'
Wkh idfw wkdw rxu phdqv +ri erwk w|shv, dqg wkh phgldq duh doprvw wkh vdph ydoxh vxjjhvwv
wkdw wkh vdpsoh phdvxuhphqwv olh v|pphwulfdoo| derxw wkh plggoh ri wkh gdwd1 Lw uhpdlqv wr
qg e| krz pxfk wkh ydoxhv ydu| durxqg wkdw plggoh1
} }7
Wdoo shrsoh zrxog kdyh srvlwlyh ghyldwlrqv/ zklovw vkruw shrsoh zrxog kdyh qhjdwlyh
ghyldwlrqv1 Wkh dyhudjh ri doo wkh ghyldwlrqv zrxog eh=
?
[
E} }7
? '
zklfk lv htxdo wr }hur1 Li |rx grq*w eholhyh wklv/ fdofxodwh lw1 Dojheudlfdoo|=
?
% ? ?
&
[ [ [
E} }7 ' } }7
? ' ? ' '
' d?7
} ?7
}o
?
' f
Li zh gr qrw zdqw wkh soxv dqg plqxv ghyldwlrqv wr fdqfho rxw/ zh kdyh wr hlwkhu wdnh
devroxwh ydoxhv ru vtxduh wkhp1 \rx fdq gr hlwkhu/ exw wkh odwwhu zloo eh pruh xvhixo wr
xv lq wkh orqj uxq1 Wkh yduldqfh/ wkhq/ lv fdofxodwhg e| vtxdulqj wkh ghyldwlrqv/ wkhq
dgglqj wkhp xs dqg wdnlqj wkh dyhudjh=
?
[
T ' E} }72
? '
Li |rx xvh d vsuhdgvkhhw ru frpsxwhu surjudp wr fdofxodwh wkh yduldqfh/ wklv irup lv
ehvw1 Li |rx duh grlqj wklv rq d kdqg fdofxodwru/ dq dowhuqdwlyh irup lv=
?
[ 2
T ' } }72
? '
Wkdw lv/ wdnh hdfk ydoxh lq wxuq dqg vtxduh lw1 Dyhudjh wkh vtxduhv ri wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv1
Vxewudfw wkh vtxduh ri wkh dyhudjh1 Wklv lv qrw dq dssur{lpdwlrq/ exw dq htxlydohqw
irupxod1 Lw lv ghulyhg e| h{sdqglqj rxw wkh eudfnhwv dqg wkhq uhjurxslqj wkh whupv=
?
[
T ' E} }72
? '
?
[ 2
' } 2} }7 n }72
? '
? ? ?
[ 2 [ [ 2
' } 27
}} n }7
? ' ? ' ? '
vr wkdw=
? ?
[ [
27
}} ' 27
} }}7 ' }72
} ' 27
? ' ? '
Vlploduo|=
? ?
[ 2 [
}7 ' }72 ' }72
? ' ? '
vr wkdw=
? ? ? ? ?
[ 2 [ [ 2 [ 2 2 2 [ 2
} 27
}} n }7 ' } 27
} n }7 ' } }72
? ' ? ' ? ' ? ' ? '
Iru wkh khljkwv ri WhfkYdo vwxghqwv lq 4<<:/ T lv htxdo wr 661:3 fp2 1 Dv d ghvfulswlyh
vwdwlvwlf wklv ohdyhv d olwwoh wr eh ghvluhg/ vlqfh lw lv d phdq vtxduhg ghyldwlrq dqg lv lq
xqlwv vtxduhg udwkhu wkdq wkh ruljlqdo vdpsoh xqlwv1 Wr jhw d ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlf zlwk
vrph phdqlqj/ zh pxvw vtxduh urrw wklv txdqwlw| s wr jhw d urrw phdq vtxduh ghyldwlrq
ru d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Iru rxu vdpsohv/ T lv htxdo wr 81; fp1 Zh pljkw lqwhusuhw
wklv dv wkh w|slfdo glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh dfwxdo khljkw ri dq| fodvv phpehu dqg wkh
dyhudjh khljkw ri wkh fodvv1
Li zh kdg pruh gdwd zh frxog surgxfh d klvwrjudp iru wkh ydoxhv1 Wkhuh duh sohqw| ri klvwrjudp
h{dpsohv iru wkh gdwd vhwv surylghg zlwk wklv errn1 Dw wklv srlqw zh zrxog mxvw olnh wr pdnh
d ihz frpphqwv1 Wkh iroorzlqj +Iljxuh 514, lv qrw d klvwrjudp exw d edu fkduw1
Wklv w|sh ri sorw fdq eh surgxfhg xvlqj prvw vsuhdgvkhhw sdfndjhv1 Krzhyhu/ lw lv qrw d
klvwrjudp judsk1 Wklv fkduw jlyhv wkh lpsuhvvlrq wkdw vdpsoh ydoxhv duh glvfuhwh qxpehuv/
vxfk dv 4:7 fp/ vkrzlqj 6 vdpsohv dw wkdw h{dfw ydoxh1 Zh nqrz wkdw khljkwv ri 4:7 fp uhdoo|
phdq wkdw wkh khljkw lv vrphzkhuh ehwzhhq 4:618 fp dqg 4:718 fp1 D klvwrjudp uh hfwv
wkh frqwlqxlw| ri wkh ydoxhv e| oolqj wkh zkroh lqwhuydo zlwk d eorfn zkrvh duhd uh hfwv wkh
qxpehu ri vdpsohv lq wkdw lqwhuydo1 Wkh khljkw ri wkh eorfnv wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv rq wkh judsk
lv qrw wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv lq wkh lqwhuydo exw wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv shu xqlw lqwhuydo1
Wklv lv looxvwudwhg lq ghwdlo lq wkh zrunhg h{dpsoh rq fdorulf ydoxhv iru wkh frdo gdwd odwhu
lq wklv fkdswhu1 Wkh ghflvlrq srlqw ehwzhhq zkhq wr xvh d er{ sorw dqg d klvwrjudp ehfrphv
phdqlqjixo lv durxqg 73 wr 83 vdpsohv1
zh rewdlq d phdvxuh ri vnhzqhvv ri wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv durxqg wkh phdq1 Wkh whup T D
vwdqgduglvhv wkh fdofxodwlrq vr wkdw lw lv qrw dhfwhg e| wkh ruljlqdo vdpsoh xqlwv1
Iru h{dpsoh/ li wkh vdpsoh gdwd lv v|pphwulf durxqg wkh dyhudjh ydoxh wkhq hdfk srvlwlyh
ghyldwlrq kdv d qhjdwlyh ghyldwlrq wr h{dfwo| edodqfh lw1 Li zh fxeh wkh ghyldwlrqv/ wkh qhjdwlyh
rqhv vwloo edodqfh rxw wkh srvlwlyh rqhv dqg wkh vnhzqhvv zloo eh }hur1 Lq wkh fdvh ri rxu khljkw
gdwd/ wkh vnhzqhvv lv fdofxodwhg wr eh 3159791
Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ li zh kdyh vdpsoh gdwd olnh wkdw riwhq hqfrxqwhuhg lq srooxwlrq vwxglhv
ru jhrorjlfdo dssolfdwlrqv/ zh whqg wr kdyh d orw ri ydoxhv foxvwhuhg xs ehorz wkh phdq ydoxh dqg
d orqj cwdlo* lqwr wkh kljk ydoxhv1 Wkh srvlwlyh ghyldwlrqv duh yhu| odujh frpsduhg wr lqglylgxdo
qhjdwlyh ghyldwlrqv1 Zkhq zh fxeh wkh ghyldwlrqv/ wkh srvlwlyh rqhv ehfrph hqruprxvo| odujh
dqg fdq qr orqjhu eh fdqfhoohg rxw e| wkh qhjdwlyh rqhv1 Vxfk gdwd lv vdlg wr eh srvlwlyho|
vnhzhg1
Lq frqwudvw/ gdwd zklfk whqgv wr kdyh d orw ri kljk ydoxhv zlwk d orqj wdlo lqwr wkh orzhu
ydoxhv zloo eh qhjdwlyho| vnhzhg1 Wklv vruw ri ehkdylrxu lv irxqg lq jhrorjlfdo dssolfdwlrqv lq
olphvwrqhv dqg vhglphqwdu| lurq ruhv/ iru h{dpsoh1
Dqrwkhu phdvxuh zklfk pd| suryh xvhixo lv fdofxodwhg e| udlvlqj wkh ghyldwlrqv wr wkh srzhu
7 ehiruh wdnlqj wkh dyhudjh1 Wklv vwdwlvwlf lv fdoohg wkh nxuwrvlv dqg fdq eh vwdqgduglvhg e|
glylglqj e| wkh vtxduh ri wkh yduldqfh=
?
[
E} }7e T 2
? '
Wklv vwdwlvwlf phdvxuhv wkh shdnhg0qhvv ri wkh gdwd ru wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri ydoxhv lq wkh
fhqwuh dv rssrvhg wr rxw lq wkh wdlov1 Iru rxu khljkw h{dpsoh/ wkh nxuwrvlv lv 61471
Rqh rwkhu vwdwlvwlf zklfk pd| suryh xvhixo exw rqo| lq wkh frqwh{w ri srvlwlyho| vnhzhg
gdwd lv wkh frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq1 Wklv lv vlpso| wkh udwlr ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq wr
wkh phdq ri wkh vdpsohv1 Zh zloo glvfxvv wklv pruh ixoo| zkhq frqvlghulqj wkh orjqrupdo
glvwulexwlrq dqg lwv yduldwlrqv1
s
T
}7
41 Wkh phdvxuhphqwv wkdw zh kdyh wdnhq rq rxu vdpsohv duh suhflvh ru uhsurgxfleoh1 Lq
sodlq whupv/ zh zloo dvvxph wkdw li zh wrrn h{dfwo| wkh vdph vdpsoh lq h{dfwo| wkh vdph
zd| dqg vxemhfwhg lw wr h{dfwo| wkh vdph dqdo|vlv/ zh zrxog jhw h{dfwo| wkh vdph uhvxow
djdlq1 Wklv lv/ ri frxuvh/ lpsrvvleoh ru/ dw ohdvw/ h{wuhpho| xqolnho|1 Zh zloo vhh odwhu
lq wkh errn zkdw lpsdfw wklv dvvxpswlrq kdv rq wkh hvwlpdwlrq whfkqltxhv zklfk duh
sursrvhg1
51 Wkh phdvxuhphqwv wkdw zh kdyh wdnhq rq rxu vdpsohv duh dffxudwh ru uhsuhvhqwdwlyh1
Wkdw lv/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkh phdvxuhphqwv zh kdyh wdnhq dfwxdoo| uh hfw wkh uhdo ydoxhv
dw wkrvh orfdwlrqv1 Vrph vdpsolqj phwkrgv pd| lqwurgxfh eldvvhv lq wkh ydoxhv uhfry0
huhg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ xvlqj d shufxvvlrq guloolqj whfkqltxh lq d khdy| plqhudo ghsrvlw zlwk
odujh fu|vwdo vwuxfwxuhv zloo jhqhudoo| uhvxow lq dq xqghuhvwlpdwlrq ri wkh plqhudo frq0
whqw1 Lq pdq| hqylurqphqwdo dssolfdwlrqv/ wkhuh lv d ghwhfwlrq olplw ehorz zklfk ydoxhv
fdqqrw eh dvvljqhg1 Fkhfnlqj wklv dvvxpswlrq lv gl!fxow dqg frvwo|1 Zh glvfxvv vrph
dssurdfkhv wr wklv sureohp odwhu lq wkh errn/ sduwlfxoduo| lq wkh vhfwlrq rq uhjuhvvlrq
whfkqltxhv1
61 Wkh vdpsohv zh kdyh wdnhq frqvwlwxwh d yhu| vpdoo sruwlrq ri d yhu| odujh +wkhruhwlfdoo|
lqqlwh, csrsxodwlrq* ri doo wkh vdpsohv zh frxog kdyh wdnhq1 Wklv lv suredeo| wkh prvw
uhdolvwlf dvvxpswlrq zh zloo pdnh1 Wkh uhdo wkuxvw ri wklv dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw wkh vdpsohv
Wkhvh irxu dvvxpswlrqv duh hvvhqwldo wr wkh xvh ri vwdwlvwlfdo hvwlpdwlrq whfkqltxhv1 Wkh uvw
wzr uhodwh wr rxu frqghqfh lq wkh ruljlqdo vdpsoh ydoxhv wkhpvhoyhv1 Dvvxpswlrqv 6 dqg 7
duh pdgh derxw krz wkh vdpsohv uhodwh wr wkh srsxodwlrq ri doo wkh vdpsohv zh frxog kdyh
wdnhq1
Lq whupv ri rxu khljkw h{dpsoh/ wkh dvvxpswlrqv erlo grzq wr=
41 Li wkh vdph vwxghqwv zhuh dvnhg iru wkhlu khljkwv djdlq/ wkh| zrxog jlyh wkh vdph dqvzhuv>
51 Wkh| dqvzhuhg wuxwkixoo| +qrw pdq| shrsoh olh derxw wkhlu khljkw,>
61 Wkhvh vwxghqwv frpsulvh d vpdoo vhw ri lqglylgxdov iurp wkh srsxodwlrq ri doo srvvleoh
WhfkYdo vwxghqwv sdvw/ suhvhqw dqg ixwxuh>
71 Wkh ghflvlrq wr wdnh wklv fodvv zdv qrw dhfwhg e| wkh khljkw ri wkh vwxghqw1 Vlqfh wklv lv
d frpsxovru| fodvv iru erwk ghjuhh frxuvhv/ lw lv xqolnho| wkdw wkh fodvv zrxog eh eldvvhg
lq uhjdug wr lqglylgxdo khljkw1
Iru wklv gdwd vhw/ zh fdq dffhsw wkdw wkh dvvxpswlrqv pljkw eh uhdolvwlf1
Zkloh wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv duh qhfhvvdu|/ wkh| duh qrw +xqiruwxqdwho|, vx!flhqw1 Zh pxvw
pdnh rqh pruh dvvxpswlrq ehiruh zh fdq vwduw wr pdnh lqihuhqfhv derxw xqnqrzq ydoxhv lq
wkh srsxodwlrq1 Ohw xv vxssrvh/ iru wkh prphqw/ wkdw zh frxog qg hyhu| lqglylgxdo lq wkh
srsxodwlrq ri WhfkYdo vwxghqwv dqg phdvxuh wkhlu khljkw1 Wklv srsxodwlrq pxvw uxq lqwr wkh
wkrxvdqgv/ dw ohdvw1 Li zh frxog wdnh wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv dqg frqvwuxfw d klvwrjudp iurp
wkhp/ zh fdq dvvxph lw zrxog orrn d orw ohvv oxps| wkdq wkh edu fkduw lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq1
Zlwk vr pdq| vdpsohv/ zh frxog exlog d klvwrjudp zlwk yhu| qduurz lqwhuydov dqg h{shfw wr
jhw d vprrwk vlpsoh vkdsh lq wkh judsk1 Wkh ch{wud* dvvxpswlrq wkdw zh kdyh wr pdnh ehiruh
zh fdq xvh wkh wkhru| lv zkdw wkh h{dfw vkdsh ri wklv klvwrjudp zrxog eh1
Lq wkh iroorzlqj fkdswhuv zh vkrz zkdw glhuhqfh lw pdnhv li zh dvvxph glhuhqw vkdshv
iru wkdw srsxodwlrq klvwrjudp1 Zh zloo glvfxvv fhuwdlq rswlrqv lq ghwdlo1 Wkh lqwhqwlrq lv
orzhvw 4<1<5
4vw txduwloh 551;3 +vdpsoh 58,
phgldq 318+57189.5718:,@571898
6ug txduwloh 59144 +vdpsoh :5,
kljkhvw 63179
phgldq 571898 PM
udqjh 43187 PM
lqwhu0txduwloh udqjh 6164 PM
bS
[
vnhzqhvv ' E} }7 T D ' 2ffe DbHfD ' f22Hf
bS ' bS
bS
[
nxuwrvlv ' E} }7e T 2 ' H2DDbD DbHf2 ' 2efeH
bS ' bS
Iru gdwd vxfk dv wklv/ zklfk lv phdvxuhg wr wzr ghflpdo sodfhv/ wkh frqfhsw ri d xqltxh prgdo
ydoxh lv frpsohwho| vsxulrxv1 Wr qg wkh prgh/ zh wxuq wr wkh klvwrjudp ri wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv1
Dv d jhqhudo uxoh ri wkxpe/ klvwrjudp lqwhuydov duh fkrvhq wr fryhu wkh vsuhdg ri wkh gdwd
ydoxhv1 Wkh qxpehu ri lqwhuydov qhhgv wr eh odujh hqrxjk wr jlyh d jrrg slfwxuh exw vpdoo
Iurp wklv klvwrjudp/ zh qg d prgdo +kljkhvw/ prvw vdpsohv, lqwhuydo ehwzhhq 561<5 dqg
571<5 PM1 Dv dq h{shulphqw/ zh uh0frqvwuxfwhg wkh klvwrjudp dw 318 PM lqwhuydov +vhh qh{w
sdjh,/ wr qg wkdw wkh prgdo lqwhuydo lv 571758 dqg 571<581 Qrwlfh krz wkh vkdsh ri wkh
klvwrjudp lv vwduwlqj wr euhdn xs qrz wkdw zh kdyh ihzhu vdpsohv shu lqwhuydo1
Wr wdnh wklv wr lwv h{wuhph/ zh dovr frqvwuxfwhg d klvwrjudp rq 314 PM lqwhuydov1 Wkh prgdo
lqwhuydo lv qrz ehwzhhq 57175 dqg 57185 PM1 Krzhyhu/ wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri vdpsohv lq wklv
lqwhuydo lv 71 Wklv jlyhv xv olwwoh frqghqfh lq wklv dv d uhdo uh hfwlrq ri wkh prvw olnho| ydoxh
iru wkh gdwd vhw1
Rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv=
vnhzqhvv f22Hf
nxuwrvlv 2efeH frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq 313<<6
orzhvw 5717
4vw txduwloh 63153
phgldq 318+6715.6716,@67158
6ug txduwloh 6<183
kljkhvw 7714
zklfk surgxfhv wkh iroorzlqj vwdwlvwlfv=
phgldq 67158
udqjh 4<1:
lqwhu0txduwloh udqjh <18
Iru wkh rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv zh qhhg wr fdofxodwh wkh iroorzlqj=
Df
[
} ' .2D2e (Ih
'
Df
[
}7 ' } ' eDf (Ih
Df '
Df
[
T ' E} }72 ' 22 (Ih2
Df '
s
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ' T ' e.f (Ih
Df
[
vnhzqhvv ' E} }7 T D ' DSbSSS 22D ' ff f2
Df ' Df
Df
[
nxuwrvlv ' E} }7e T 2 ' ebHDS..2. 222 ' 2f Hb
Df ' Df
Iurp wklv klvwrjudp/ zh qg d prgdo lqwhuydo ehwzhhq 67 dqg 69 (Ih1 Wr vxppdulvh/ zh
kdyh rewdlqhg wkh iroorzlqj ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv iurp wklv gdwd vhw=
Fhqwudo whqghqf|= Yduldelolw|=
prgh 6769 (Ih Udqjh 4<1:
phgldq 67158 lqwhu0txduwloh udqjh <16
phdq 6718 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq 71:
Rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv=
vnhzqhvv 313635
nxuwrvlv 5136;< frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq 3147
orzhvw 4357 iw
4vw txduwloh 487; iw
phgldq 4:<: iw
6ug txduwloh 5873 iw
kljkhvw 68:4 iw
phgldq 4:<: iw
udqjh 587: iw
lqwhu0txduwloh udqjh 43431:8 iw
Lw lv idluo| reylrxv wkdw zh uxq lqwr suhflvlrq sureohpv yhu| txlfno| zkhq fdofxodwlqj kljkhu
rughu vwdwlvwlfv iurp vxfk odujh qxpehuv1 Prvw frpsxwhu dssolfdwlrqv sduwlfxoduo| vsuhdg0
vkhhwv rqo| fduu| qxpehuv wr ; ru < vljqlfdqw jxuhv1 Dq|wklqj pruh wkdq wklv lv suredeo|
vsxulrxv1 Krzhyhu/ zh fdq vhh wkdw wklv gdwd lv dssduhqwo| voljkwo| pruh vnhzhg wkdq wkh frdo
ru lurq ydoxhv1 Wkh ydoxh iru wkh vnhzqhvv lv srvlwlyh ehfdxvh wkh pdmrulw| ri wkh vdpsohv
kdyh orzhu ydoxhv1
Wklv klvwrjudp orrnv olnh lw kdv wzr prghv= rqh dw durxqg 4;33 iw dqg d vhfrqgdu| prgh dw
durxqg 5833 iw1 Zh zloo orrn dw wklv lq forvhu ghwdlo odwhu lq wkh errn1 Wr vxppdulvh/ zh kdyh
rewdlqhg wkh iroorzlqj ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv iurp wklv gdwd vhw=
Rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv=
vnhzqhvv 31834:
nxuwrvlv 518655 frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq 316368
Rqh ri wkh pdmru lqglfdwruv ri vnhzqhvv lq d gdwd vhw lv d pdmru glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq wkh
wkuhh phdvxuhv ri fhqwudo whqghqf|1 Khuh wkh phgldq lv 43( orzhu wkdq wkh dyhudjh ydoxh1
Wkh ghidxow klvwrjudp zrxog kdyh durxqg 48 lqwhuydov/ fryhulqj d udqjh ri :/3;71 Wkh xvxdo
ghidxowv zrxog surgxfh d klvwrjudp vxfk dv wkdw rq wkh iroorzlqj sdjh=
Lw lv lpphgldwho| dssduhqw/ iru gdwd vxfk dv wkhvh/ wkdw wkh xvxdo ghidxowv duh qrw yhu| vhqvleoh1
H{shulphqwlqj zlwk qduurzhu lqwhuydov surgxfhv wkh iroorzlqj klvwrjudp1 Lw lv suhww| reylrxv
wkdw wklv gdwd zloo eh kljko| vnhzhg dqg yhu| shdnhg1 Zh fdq h{shfw d odujh srvlwlyh qxpehu
iru vnhzqhvv dqg/ srvvleo|/ d kljk ydoxh iru nxuwrvlv1 Wkh prgh lv yhu| orz qr pdwwhu krz
qduurz zh pdnh wkh lqwhuydov/ lw lv dozd|v lq wkh uvw lqwhuydo1
Wkh phgldq lv kljkhu dw 64< vfdoorsv1 Wkh dulwkphwlf phdq lv krz pdq| vfdoorsv zh zrxog
jhw li zh vkduhg wkhp doo rxw htxdoo| dprqjvw wkh 47; vdpsohv1 Zh kdyh rqh ydoxh dw :/3;71
Wkdw lv/ doprvw 7; vfdoorsv shu vdpsoh mxvw iurp wkdw rqh vdpsoh1 Wkh wrwdo ri doo wkh vfdoorsv
frxqwhg lv=
eH
[
} ' efSe2
'
Uhphpehulqj wkdw wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv +lq vrph vhqvh, wkh dyhudjh vl}h ri wkh ghyldwlrq
iurp wkh phdq/ wklv lv whoolqj xv wkdw wkh dyhudjh ghyldwlrq lv wkuhh wlphv wkh dyhudjh ydoxh1
Li zh fdqqrw kdyh qhjdwlyh ydoxhv/ wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh qhjdwlyh ghyldwlrqv pxvw eh ohvv wkdq
rqh0wklug ri wkh cdyhudjh* pdjqlwxgh ri wkh ghyldwlrqv1 Vr doo wkh uhdoo| elj rqhv pxvw eh
deryh wkh phdq1 Ehdulqj wklv lq plqg/ wkdw phdqv wkdw wkh gdwd pxvw eh srvlwlyho| vnhzhg1
Ri frxuvh/ wklv lv rqo| ydolg iru ydoxhv zklfk vwrs dw }hur1 Li zh kdg vdpsohv zklfk
frxog wdnh qhjdwlyh ydoxhv/ wklv vwdwlvwlf lv phdqlqjohvv1 Lw lv wkh frpelqdwlrq ri qrq0qhjdwlyh
dqg kljk frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq zklfk lpsolhv srvlwlyh vnhzqhvv1 Fdofxodwlqj vnhzqhvv dqg
nxuwrvlv/ zh jhw=
eH
[
E} }7 T D ' 2.S b2bSSe. .f.eD DD ' DD.
eH '
eH
[
E} }7e T 2 ' bfbS2SDeHbeSf .f.eD D2 ' H.H
eH '
Dv h{shfwhg/ wkhvh duh pxfk kljkhu wkdq lq dq| ri wkh rwkhu h{dpsohv zh kdyh frqvlghuhg1
Qrwh= Zh phqwlrqhg lq wkh Zroifdps h{dpsoh wkdw wkhvh fdofxodwlrqv uxq lqwr suhflvlrq
sureohpv zkhq wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv jhw odujh1 Wklv lv hyhq pruh hylghqw lq wklv dssolfdwlrq1
Wkhuh duh zd|v lq zklfk zh fdq uhgxfh wkh vl}h ri wkh qxpehuv zh duh ghdolqj zlwk1 Iru
51<1 H{huflvhv
Surgxfh ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv dqg klvwrjudpv ru er{ sorwv iru hdfk ri wkh iroorzlqj h{huflvhv1
41 vhdp wklfnqhvv
51 dvk frqwhqw
61 vxoskxu ydoxh
Zk| zrxog lw eh lqdssursuldwh wr gr wklv h{huflvh rq wkh hohydwlrq ri wkh frdo vhdpB
51 Wkh iroorzlqj wdeoh vkrzv wkh khljkwv ri wkh fodvv sduwlflsdqwv lq wkh srvwjudgxdwh
+Pdvwhu*v, frxuvh dw Zlwv Xqlyhuvlw| lq 4<<:1
41 jrog ydoxhv
51 uhhi wklfnqhvv
91 Wkh wdeoh ehorz vkrzv wkh wklfnqhvv ri uhhi lq fhqwlphwuhv iru vdpsohv wdnhq zlwklq d
srwhqwldo plqlqj duhd lq wkh Exvkyhog Sodwlqxp plqhudolvdwlrq1 Hvwlpdwhv ri wklfnqhvv
duh uhtxluhg iru sodqqlqj sxusrvhv dqg wrqqdjh fdofxodwlrqv1
719 613 718 716 918 4818
518 4714 513 4413 318 4713
418 818 618 718 918 318
513 518 618 5518 317 418
518 918 613 616 518 615
<13 4315 :13 4;18 918 713
315 :18 4318 5419 518 61;
:1 Vdpsohv zhuh wdnhq dorqj wzr idfhv ri d sodqqhg vwrslqj duhd zlwklq d Zlwv w|sh jrog
plqh1 Wkh iroorzlqj ydoxhv zhuh irxqg iru wkh dffxpxodwlrq +judghzlgwk, lq fpj2w=
;1 Wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv frpsulvh d vhw ri zlgwk ri uhhi ydoxhv lq d vxevhfwlrq ri d Zlwv
jrog plqh1 Uhhi zlgwk ydoxhv duh qhfhvvdu| iru fdofxodwlrq ri plqhdeoh wrqqdjhv dqg
vhqvlwlylw| wr plqlqj phwkrgv1
5819 6414 5;19 5519 641;
6415 5414 5613 5714 6318
5;1< 581< 641< 5<13 6815
5;19 6514 5919 6415 6414
5:19 5815 6413 5:17 5<1;
5<1< 6415 5;1; 551< 5<13
5713 5417 5719 4;19 5517
5518 591< 571: 5:16 561:
<1 Wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv zhuh wdnhq iurp d sodqqhg vwrslqj duhd zlwklq d Zlwv w|sh jrog
plqh1 Wkh jrog judghv +j2w, duh qhhghg iru sodqqlqj sxusrvhv1
441 Dq h{sorudwlrq surmhfw lq d Zlwv w|sh jrog uhhi kdv |lhoghg 4; eruhkrohv1 Wkh dffxpx0
odwlrq +judghzlgwk, ydoxhv iru hdfk eruhkroh duh vkrzq ehorz lq fpj2w1
451 Rqh ri wkh pdmru hfrqrplf idfwruv lq plqlqj d Phuhqvn| w|sh sodwlqxp uhhi lv wkh
wklfnqhvv ri wkh uhhi lwvhoi1 Wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv kdyh ehhq wdnhq iurp vxfk d uhhi1
Phdvxuhphqwv duh jlyhq lq fhqwlphwuhv1
461 Lq vrph ghsrvlwv wkh sd|delolw| ri wkh ruh lv ghwhuplqhg qrw e| judgh exw e| wkh ohyho
ri lpsxulwlhv irxqg lq wkh vdpsohv1 D vhw ri eruhkroh fruhv kdv ehhq dqdo|vhg iru d
fhuwdlq lpsxulw| dqg wkh uhvxowv duh olvwhg lq wkh wdeoh deryh1
471 D vhw ri vdpsohv kdyh ehhq wdnhq iurp eodvwkrohv guloohg rq d ehqfk lq d vhglphqwdu|
lurq ruh ghsrvlw1
491 Ghyhorsphqw vdpsohv lq d fxuuhqw surgxfwlrq duhd ri d edvh phwdo plqh surgxfhg wkh
iroorzlqj uhvxowv=
41853 :14:3 91733 :1785 4:1:99
313:5 81445 415;; 41<97 317;3
51793 314:9 31<83 71;<3 313:9
7147; 471633 :1545 51499 91493
<198; 41593 41;69 91;33 61439
4:1 D vhw ri eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq wkh qxpehu 7 vhdp rq d frdo surmhfw ohdvh lq
Psxpxodqjd1 Wkh fdorulf ydoxh +phjdmrxohv, kdv ehhq phdvxuhg lq hdfk1
54183 58153 58146 531:7 55179
57143 58147 54133 531:8 55185
56133 4:154 5618< 57137 5714<
581;8 561:5 57183 56173 5917;
58168 571<5 55146 5416; 58153
571<9 581;3 5913< 58176 58133
57183 561<4 59145 551<6 5914;
56173 551<9 56157 571;3 57169
4;1 D vhw ri vdpsohv kdyh ehhq froohfwhg iurp d wxqjvwhq ghsrvlw1 Ydoxhv duh jlyhq lq (Z
e| zhljkw1
55133 491;3 4:143 44143 47153
44193 46183 49173 46143 491<3
59133 48193 44183 44163 46156
4;14: 451<: ;1:: 81<6 8147
44186 451<: 46146 44156 91<6
441;: 4315: 441<: 43163 441<3
4<1 D vhw ri eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lqwr dq rog gxps dqg dvvd|hg iru Qlfnho frqwhqw1
Ydoxhv duh jlyhq lq (Ql e| zhljkw1
3169: 31687 31665 315:6 316;6
31664 3165; 315:6 3155: 31676
3169: 31688 315:3 316;< 315<5
31585 31685 31634 3158: 315;5
3158: 3165; 315;4 31576 31589
51 vdpsoh ydoxhv duh dffxudwh dqg uhsuhvhqw wkh wuxh ydoxh dw wkdw orfdwlrq
61 wkh vdpsohv wdnhq frqvwlwxwh d yhu| vpdoo sruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri srwhqwldo vdp0
sohv
71 wkh vdpsohv zhuh wdnhq udqgrpo| dqg lqghshqghqwo| iurp wkh srsxodwlrq
Lq vkruw/ zh kdyh d uhodwlyho| vpdoo vhw ri uholdeoh gdwd gudzq zlwkrxw suhmxglfh iurp d yhu|
odujh srsxodwlrq1 Zh zdqw wr xvh wkdw gdwd wr whoo xv zkdw zh frxog h{shfw li zh kdg wkh
zkroh ri wkh srsxodwlrq1 Ehwzhhq wkh nqrzq dqg wkh xqnqrzq/ wkhuh lv d jxoi ri ljqrudqfh1
Zh gr qrw nqrz zkdw jrhv rq lq wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq/ zh qhhg wr gudz lqihuhqfhv iurp wkh
gdwd wkdw zh gr kdyh derxw wkh gdwd zklfk zh gr qrw kdyh1
Wr gr wkdw/ zh uvw kdyh wr pdnh rqh pruh dvvxpswlrq1 Zh qhhg wr dvvxph zkdw wkh
vkdsh ri wkh srsxodwlrq klvwrjudp zrxog orrn olnh/ li rqo| zh frxog gudz lw1 Wkh pruh gdwd
zh kdyh/ wkh qduurzhu zh fdq pdnh wkh lqwhuydov lq wkh klvwrjudp1 Wkh pruh gdwd zh kdyh/
wkh vprrwkhu zh zrxog h{shfw wkdw klvwrjudp wr orrn1 Zh duh jrlqj wr dvvxph wkdw/ li zh kdg
wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq/ zh zrxog kdyh d vprrwk vlpsoh vkdsh iru wkh klvwrjudp ri wkdw gdwd1
Wkh klvwrjudp iru d zkroh srsxodwlrq lv nqrzq dv d suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq ru suredelolw|
ghqvlw| ixqfwlrq1 Lqvwhdg ri cqxpehu ri vdpsohv* lq hdfk klvwrjudp lqwhuydo/ zh sorw suredelolw|
ru wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq zklfk olhv lq d jlyhq lqwhuydo1 Ri frxuvh/ wkh lqwhuydov
duh vr vpdoo wkdw |rx fdqqrw vhh wkh mrlq/ vr wkh judsk orrnv olnh d vprrwk fxuyh dqg fdq eh
uhsuhvhqwhg e| d irupxod ru ixqfwlrq1 Wkhuh duh vrph pdwkhpdwlfdo uhvwulfwlrqv rq suredelolw|
ghqvlw| ixqfwlrqv1 Iru rqh wklqj/ lw fdqqrw jr qhjdwlyh wkhuh lv qr vxfk wklqj dv d qhjdwlyh
suredelolw|1 Vhfrqgo|/ wkh duhd xqghu wkh ixqfwlrq wkh wrwdo ri doo wkh srsxodwlrq pxvw dgg
xs wr 4 +ru 433(,/ vlqfh lw vkrxog lqfoxgh doo srvvlelolwlhv1 Pdq| glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrqv kdyh
vwudqjh orrnlqj frqvwdqwv lq wkh irupxod/ vlpso| wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh duhd xqghu wkh fxuyh lv 41
Lq vwdwlvwlfdo whupv/ wkh vlpsohvw cprgho* iru vxfk d glvwulexwlrq zrxog eh wkdw frpprqo|
uhihuuhg wr dv wkh Qrupdo ru Jdxvvldq glvwulexwlrq1
Wkhuh duh pdq| rwkhu glvwulexwlrq prghov1 Zh zloo glvfxvv vrph ri wkhvh lq odwhu fkdswhuv1 Wkh
Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq lv wkh prvw ghvludeoh prgho ehfdxvh lw kdv doo nlqgv ri xvhixo pdwkhpdwlfdo
surshuwlhv zklfk zh zloo xvh iru rxu hvwlpdwlrq phwkrgv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
lv wkh rqo| rqh zklfk lv dozd|v wkh vdph vkdsh1 Wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq lv vrphwlphv uhihuuhg
wr dv wkh Jdxvvldq glvwulexwlrq/ vlqfh lw zdv glvfryhuhg e| Nduo I Jdxvv d frxsoh ri kxqguhg
|hduv djr1 Jdxvv zdv orrnlqj iru d fxuyh zklfk hpxodwhg kxpdq huuru wkh exon ri wkh
glvwulexwlrq foxvwhuv durxqg wkh dyhudjh/ prvw ri wkh uhvw lv suhww| forvh wr wklv/ exw wkhuh lv
dozd|v wkh srvvlelolw| ri qglqj hqruprxv ydoxhv deryh ru ehorz wkh phdq1
Wkh irupxod iru wkh fxuyh lq wkh judsk vkrzq deryh lv=
+ ,
E} >2
s i T 4 } n4
j 2Z 2j2
zkhuh > uhsuhvhqwv wkh phdq/ phgldq dqg prgh ri wkh glvwulexwlrq prgho dqg j vwdqgv iru wkh
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Wkh glvwulexwlrq lv v|pphwulfdo durxqg lwv fhqwuh khqfh wkh phdq dqg
wkh phgldq duh wkh vdph1 Iru hyhu| qhjdwlyh ghyldwlrq wkhuh lv dq lghqwlfdo srvlwlyh ghyldwlrq
wr edodqfh lw1 Lq vkruw/ wkh phdq ydoxh +>, {hv wkh fhqwuh ri wkh glvwulexwlrq/ zklovw wkh
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq vfdohv wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr uhphpehu wkdw wkhvh wzr
sdudphwhuv duh/ hhfwlyho|/ lqghshqghqw ri rqh dqrwkhu1 Prylqj wkh glvwulexwlrq xs ru grzq
wkh d{lv grhv qrw fkdqjh wkh vfdoh ri wkh phdvxuhphqwv dqg ylfh yhuvd1
Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv wkh vfdoh ri wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv1 Lq d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq/ 9;(
ri wkh srsxodwlrq ydoxhv olh zlwklq rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh phdq ydoxh1 Mxvw ryhu <8(
ri wkh ydoxhv olh zlwklq wzr vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv1 Iru dq| jlyhq shufhqwdjh/ zh fdq ghqh wkh
lqwhuydo frqwdlqlqj wkdw shufhqwdjh dv d pxowlsoh ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Wdeoh 5 lq wkh
Wdeohv vhfwlrq ri wklv errn olvwv vrph ri wkh shufhqwdjh srlqwv zklfk zh pljkw qg xvhixo1
Wklv dqg vlplodu wdeohv iru Qrupdo glvwulexwlrqv whqg wr jlyh dqvzhuv iru rqh hqg ri wkh
glvwulexwlrq rqo|/ rq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw zh fdq ghulyh wkh rwkhu hqg iurp v|pphwu|1 Ohw xv
vd|/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkdw zh zdqw wr nqrz krz pdq| vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv hqfrpsdvv <3( ri wkh
srsxodwlrq1 Zh orrn iru 8( lq wkh xsshu cwdlo* dqg 8( lq wkh orzhu cwdlo*1 Wkh Wdeoh whoov xv
wkdw 8( lq wkh xsshu wdlo zrxog eh 41977< vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv deryh wkh phdq1 E| v|pphwu|/
dqg wklv zrxog eh wuxh iru dq| frpelqdwlrq ri phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq surylghg wkdw
wkh srsxodwlrq kdg d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Lw lv vrphwlphv xvhixo wr orrn dw d fxpxodwlyh
suredelolw| ixqfwlrq/ zklfk pruh forvho| looxvwudwhv Wdeoh 41 Lq d fxpxodwlyh glvwulexwlrq/ zh
orrn dw wkdw sursruwlrq ri wkh ydoxhv zklfk olh ehorz d jlyhq ydoxh1 Wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
surgxfhv dq V0vkdshg judsk zkhq ydoxh lv sorwwhg djdlqvw fxpxodwlyh sursruwlrq1
Suredelolw| sdshu lv frqvwuxfwhg lq vxfk d zd| wkdw d fxpxodwlyh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zrxog
dsshdu dv d vwudljkw olqh1 Lw lv hdvlhu wr mxgjh zkhwkhu d vhw ri srlqwv frqirup wr d vwudljkw
olqh/ wkdq wkh w ri d klvwrjudp wr wkh lghdo Qrupdo1 Wkh frqfhsw lv idluo| vwudljkwiruzdug1
Zh vshfli| d ydoxh/ qg rxw zkdw sursruwlrq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq zrxog olh ehorz wkdw ydoxh
dqg sorw rqh djdlqvw wkh rwkhu rq wkh judsk sdshu1 Ri frxuvh/ lq uhdolw| zh rqo| kdyh vdpsoh
gdwd1 Vr/ zh vshfli| ydoxhv dqg qg rxw zkdw sursruwlrq ri rxu vdpsohv olh ehorz wkdw ydoxh1
Zh fdq looxvwudwh wklv zlwk wkh WhfkYdo vwxghqw khljkwv1 Wkh ruljlqdo vdpsoh gdwd/ rughuhg
iurp vpdoohvw wr odujhvw/ zdv=
4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
Sf SD SD .f .f .f . . .2 . .e .e
46 .e
.D .S .S .. .. .H .b .b Hf Hf H H.
47 48 49 4: 4; 4< 53 54 55 56 57 58
Zh fdq vd| wkdw zh kdyh 4 vdpsoh ohvv wkdq 49318 fp uhphpehulqj wkdw wklv gdwd zdv
urxqghg r wr wkh qhduhvw fhqwlphwuh1 Rqh vdpsoh frpsulvhv 7( ri wkh vdpsohv +4 lq 58,1 Zh
kdyh wkuhh vdpsohv zlwk ydoxhv ohvv wkdq 49818 fp1 Wklv lv 45( 3145 ri wkh wrwdo gdwd1 Zh
fdq srvvleo| h{suhvv wklv ehwwhu dv d wdeoh=
\rx fdq fdofxodwh sursruwlrq udwkhu wkdq shufhqwdjh/ ghshqglqj rq zkdw nlqg ri suredelolw|
sdshu |rx zloo eh xvlqj1 Sorwwlqj wkh shufhqwdjhv djdlqvw wkh ydoxhv surgxfhv d suredelolw|
sorw1
Wkh vwudljkw olqh rq wklv sorw lv wkh shuihfw Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk wkh vdph phdq dqg vwdq0
gdug ghyldwlrq wkdw zh fdofxodwhg lq wkh suhylrxv fkdswhu1 Zh fdq sorw wklv olqh uhphpehulqj
wkh iroorzlqj=
83( ri wkh srsxodwlrq olhv ehorz wkh phdq wklv jlyhv xv rqh srlqw rq wkh olqh dw
4:715fp yhuvxv 3183 sursruwlrq>
9;( ri wkh srsxodwlrq olhv ehwzhhq wkh phdq plqxv rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq dqg wkh phdq
soxv rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Wkdw lv/ 49( ri wkh srsxodwlrq olhv ehorz +phdqvwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq, dqg ;7( olhv ehorz +phdq.vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq,1 Vr zh dfwxdoo| kdyh wkuhh
srlqwv rq d vwudljkw olqh dqg fdq gudz wkh zkroh lghdolvhg Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq rq wkh
judsk1 Frpsdulqj wklv zlwk wkh gdwd ydoxhv doorzv xv wr pdnh d ghflvlrq dv wr zkhwkhu
wkh vdpsoh gdwd orrn olnh wkh| frph iurp d Qrupdo srsxodwlrq1
Iru rxu khljkw h{dpsoh/ zh vhhp wr kdyh wkh fhqwuh ri wkh glvwulexwlrq derxw uljkw1 Krzhyhu/
wkh wdoo shrsoh duh qrw txlwh dv wdoo dv zh zrxog h{shfw zklovw wkh vkruw shrsoh duh dovr d
elw vkruwhu wkdq wkh lghdo1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ zh kdyh wr uhphpehu wkdw zh rqo| kdyh 58
lqglylgxdov iurp wklv yhu| odujh srsxodwlrq vr zh gr qrw h{shfw wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv wr olh h{dfwo|
rq wkh olqh1 Wkh pruh vdpsohv zh kdg/ wkh forvhu zh zrxog h{shfw wkhp wr frqirup wr wkh
lghdo olqh1
Qrwh= wkhuh lv qr }hur ru 4133 srlqw rq wkh suredelolw| vfdoh1 Wkh odvw srlqw lq rxu wdeoh lv
qrw sorwwhg rq wkh judsk1 Wklv vfdoh lv d wkhruhwlfdo rqh jhduhg wr wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
Rqh ri wkh qlfh pdwkhpdwlfdo surshuwlhv ri wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq lv wkdw dq| olqhdu frpel0
qdwlrq ri Qrupdo ydoxhv dovr iroorzv d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 D olqhdu frpelqdwlrq lv dq|wklqj
ri wkh irup=
zkhuh }E ghqrwhv vrph ydoxh zklfk kdv ehhq gudzq iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk phdq
>E dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq jE1 Surylghg wkdw wkh }E ydoxhv duh wdnhq udqgrpo| dqg lqgh0
shqghqwo|/ wkh dyhudjh ri wkh frpelqdwlrq zloo eh wkh vdph olqhdu frpelqdwlrq ri wkh dyhudjh
iru hdfk }E =
Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri d frpelqdwlrq ghshqgv khdylo| rq zkhwkhu wkh ydoxhv duh xquhodwhg
qrw mxvw lqghshqghqwo| wdnhq1 Dvvxplqj qr uhodwlrqvkls dprqjvw wkh ydoxhv/ wkh yduldqfh
ri wkh frpelqdwlrq lv=
[
?
}72D ' } ' d} n }2 n } n }e n n }2e n }2Do
2D ' 2D
' } n }2 n } n }e n n }2e n }2D
2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D
zklfk lv d vlpsoh olqhdu frpelqdwlrq ri Qrupdo vdpsohv1 Wkh phdq ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri
dyhudjhv wkh vdph olqhdu frpelqdwlrq ri wkh lqglylgxdo phdqv1 Doo ri wkhvh } frph iurp d
srsxodwlrq zlwk phdq > dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq j1 Xvlqj wkh wkhru| deryh/ wklv phdqv wkdw
wkh jurxs dyhudjhv frph iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk phdq=
>2D ' > n > n > n > n n > n > ' >
2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D
Wkdw lv/ wkh dyhudjh ri doo ri wkh jurxs dyhudjhv lv wkh vdph dv wkh dyhudjh ri doo wkh lqglylgxdov1
Wklv zrxog vhhp idluo| vhqvleoh/ surylghg zh nhhs wkh jurxsv doo wkh vdph vl}h1
Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh jurxs dyhudjhv fdq eh irxqg vlploduo|=
2
j22D ' 2
j n 2 j2 n 2 j2 n 2 j2 n n 2 j2 n 2 j2
2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D
2D 2 2
' j ' j
2D2 2D
Wkdw lv/ wkh yduldqfh ri wkh jurxs dyhudjh iru 58 lqglylgxdov lv rqh0wzhqw|iwk ri wkh ruljlqdo
yduldqfh iru lqglylgxdov1 Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq iru dq dyhudjh ri 58 lqglylgxdov lv rqh0iwk
ri wkh ruljlqdo vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Lq jhqhudo/ li zh dyhudjh jurxsv ri ? Qrupdo vdpsohv/ wkh
uhvxowlqj ydoxhv zloo frph iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk wkh vdph phdq dv wkh ruljlqdo dqg
d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq zklfk lv=
j" ' s j
?
zkhuh zh xvh j" dv d jhqhudo qrwdwlrq iru wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh vdpsoh dyhudjh durxqg
wkh wuxh srsxodwlrq phdq1 Rxu dyhudjhv/ wkhuhiruh/ kdyh d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq dv vkrzq lq
Iljxuh 618
Vr idu/ zh kdyh frqvlghuhg rqo| wkh wkhru|1 Ohw xv uhwxuq +iru d prphqw, wr wkh uhdo zruog1
Zh rqo| dfwxdoo| kdyh rqh jurxs dyhudjh wkh rqh iurp wkh 4<<: WhfkYdo fodvv1 Rxu jurxs
dyhudjh lv vlpso| rqh vlqjoh vdpsoh iurp wklv glvwulexwlrq1 Zh gr qrw nqrz zkhuh lq wkh
srsxodwlrq rxu sduwlfxodu dyhudjh olhv1 Krzhyhu/ zh nqrz wkdw 9;( ri wkh dyhudjhv olh zlwklq
rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh phdq/ vr zh frxog vd| wkdw zh zhuh 9;( frqghqw wkdw rxu
dyhudjh zdv rqh ri wkrvh1 Wkdw lv/ wkdw
zkhuh wkh c41<9* frphv iurp Wdeoh 51 Lq sodlqhu zrugv/ zh fdq vd| +wkhruhwlfdoo|, krz idu rxu
fdofxodwhg phdq lv olnho| wr eh iurp wkh wuxh ryhudoo srsxodwlrq phdq1
Wr gr wklv lq uhdolw|/ krzhyhu/ zh zloo uvw qhhg dq hvwlpdwh ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1
iru doo ri wkh lqglylgxdov lq wkh frpsohwh srsxodwlrq1 Wkh reylrxv hvwlpdwru iru wkh srsxodwlrq
yduldqfh zrxog eh=
[
?
2 9
j ' E} >2
? '
Wkh pdmru glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkhvh wzr lv wkdw }7 lv qrw wkh vdph dv > lw lv rqo| dq hvwlpdwh
ri lw1 Lq dgglwlrq/ }7 lv edvhg rq wkh vdph gdwd zh duh wu|lqj wr xvh wr hvwlpdwh j1 Dv d
doo ri wkhvh whupv duh frqvwdqw zlwk uhjdug wr wkh vxppdwlrq/ h{fhsw iru wkh } whupv1 Li zh
uhduudqjh wr rqo| vxp wkh elwv zh qhhg wr/ zh hqg xs zlwk=
[
?
Exw/ ri frxuvh=
[
?
} ' }7
? '
vr wkdw=
9
j2 T ' >2 }72 n E27 } 2>7 }
2 2 2
' > }7 2>7 } n 27
}
2 2
' > 2>7 } n }7
2
' E> }7
' } >2
E7
Wkdw lv/ wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh hvwlpdwru zh zdqw dqg wkh hvwlpdwru zh kdyh lv d srvlwlyh
jxuh T zloo whqg wr eh vpdoohu wkdq j21 Lq dq| vshflf fdvh/ wkh glhuhqfh zloo eh wkh
vtxduh ri wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh fdofxodwhg dyhudjh dqg wkh wuxh dyhudjh1 Iru wkh zkroh
srsxodwlrq/ wkh wkhruhwlfdo eldv zrxog eh wkh dyhudjh ri doo ri wkh vtxduhg ghyldwlrqv ehwzhhq
wkh fdofxodwhg dyhudjh dqg wkh wuxh phdq1 Wkdw lv/ wkh wrwdo eldv lv=
@eo@}e E7 } >2
[
?
?
r2 ' T ' E} }72
? ? '
zkhuh r2 lv qrz dq xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwru iru j2 / wkh wuxh yduldqfh ri wkh srsxodwlrq1
Wr vxppdulvh= ehfdxvh zh kdyh douhdg| xvhg wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkh vdpsohv wr hvwlpdwh
wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkh srsxodwlrq/ zh kdyh corvw* ri wkh ? slhfhv ri vdpsoh lqirupdwlrq zh
vwduwhg zlwk1 Lq frqvhtxhqfh/ zh pxvw glylgh wkh uhvxow e| ? udwkhu ?1 Zh zloo vhh/ odwhu
lq wkh errn/ wkdw hyhu| wlph zh xvh rxu gdwd wr hvwlpdwh d sdudphwhu iru wkh srsxodwlrq/ zh
zloo orvh 4 ghjuhh ri iuhhgrp1
D ' ?
Lq wkh Wdeohv vhfwlrq/ |rx zloo qg Wdeoh 6/ zklfk lv d wdeoh ghyrwhg wr wkh fxpxodwlyh 2
glvwulexwlrq1 Hdfk olqh lq wkh wdeoh uhsuhvhqwv shufhqwdjh srlqwv iru d 2 glvwulexwlrq zlwk
d vshflhg qxpehu ri ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp/ D1 Lw lv dqdorjrxv wr Wdeoh 5 iru wkh Qrupdo
glvwulexwlrq1 Lq rughu rqo| wr qhhg rqh wdeoh/ wklv wdeoh uhsuhvhqwv wkh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh udwlr
ehwzhhq wkh fdofxodwhg yduldqfh dqg wkh wuxh yduldqfh +pxowlsolhg e| wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp,1
Wr uhfds dqg uhwxuq wr rxu khljkw h{dpsoh/ zh kdyh dq hvwlpdwh iru wkh wuxh yduldqfh ri wkh
srsxodwlrq=
2 9 [
?
L dp <8( frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv ohvv wkdq wklv ydoxh1
dqg zh fdq eh <8( frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq +j, lv ohvv wkdq .H fp1
Li zh zdqwhg d frqghqfh lqwhuydo udwkhu wkdq d vlqjoh olplw/ zh zrxog vsolw rxu culvn* shu0
fhqwdjh ehwzhhq wkh wzr wdlov ri wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li zh zdqwhg d <8( frqghqfh
lqwhuydo/ zh zrxog orrn iru 518( deryh wkh xsshu olplw dqg 518( ehorz wkh orzhu olplw1 Iurp
Wdeoh 6/ zh jhw=
E? r2
2b.D 2
2f2D
j
2e D
2ef b S
j2
Uhduudqjlqj wkh whupv=
2e D 2e D
j2
b S 2ef
2e j2 S.bD
eS j H2
vr wkdw zh fdq eh <8( frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ j/ olhv ehwzhhq 719 dqg ;15
fp1
L fdq eh <8( frqghqw wkdw p| }7 olhv ehwzhhq > bS 1j? dqg > n bS 1j?
zkhuh wkh 41<9 frphv iurp Wdeoh 5 iru wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Qrz zh kdyh dq hvwlpdwh iru
j/ wkdw lv r1 Fdq zh vlpso| vxevwlwxwh r iru jB Xqiruwxqdwho|/ wklv grhvq*w zrun1 Ehfdxvh r
lv rqo| dq hvwlpdwh ri j/ wkhuh lv ohvv frqghqfh wkdq li zh kdg wkh wuxh ydoxh iru j1 Lq wkh
4<53v/ zulwlqj xqghu wkh svhxgrq|p ri cVwxghqw*/ Z V Jrvvhw irxqg wkdw sxwwlqj r lqvwhdg
ri j dfwxdoo| fkdqjhv wkh vsuhdg dqg vkdsh ri wkh glvwulexwlrq fkdqjlqj lw iurp wkh lghdo
Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq wr d Vwxghqw*v | glvwulexwlrq1 Hhfwlyho|=
} }7
|'
r
lv d Qrupdo txdqwlw| +} }7, glylghg e| vrphwklqj uhodwhg wr d 2 glvwulexwlrq +r,1 Wkh vkdsh
dqg vsuhdg ri wklv glvwulexwlrq ghshqgv rq +vxusulvh, wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dvvrfldwhg zlwk
wkh fdofxodwlrq ri r1 Wdeoh 7 lv wkh htxlydohqw ri Wdeoh 5 zkhq zh dgplw wkdw zh gr qrw nqrz
wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq exw rqo| kdyh dq hvwlpdwh ri lw1 Hdfk olqh lq wkh wdeoh uhihuv wr d
vshflhg qxpehu ri ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp/ D1 Lq rxu fdvh/ ri frxuvh/ D ' ? 1 Qrwh wkdw wkh
odvw olqh lq wkh wdeoh/ D ' 4/ lv lghqwlfdo wr wkh vdph hqwulhv lq Wdeoh 51
Ohw xv wdnh rxu khljkw h{dpsoh1 Zh kdyh hvwlpdwhg wkh phdq dv 4:715 fp dqg wkh vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq dv 81< fp1 Dojheudlfdoo|=
Iurp Wdeoh 7/ zh qg wkdw 518( ri d Vwxghqw*v | glvwulexwlrq olhv deryh 513971 Ehfdxvh ri
wkh v|pphwu|/ zh wkhq nqrz wkdw 518( ri wkh glvwulexwlrq olhv ehorz 513971 Wdeoh 7 lv olnh
Wdeoh 5/ lq wkdw lw whoov xv krz pdq| vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv +lq wklv fdvh krz pdq| r, deryh ru
ehorz wkh phdq ydoxh1 Frpsduh wklv wr wkh Wdeoh 5 ydoxh ri 41<91 Rxu frqghqfh lqwhuydo zloo
eh zlghu ehfdxvh zh dgplw wkdw zh duh qrw 433( frqghqw lq rxu hvwlpdwh ri wkh vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq1 Wkh vwdwhphqw deryh qrz ehfrphv=
s s
L fdq eh <8( frqghqw wkdw p| }7 olhv ehwzhhq > 2fSer* ? dqg > n 2fSer* ?
ru dojheudlfdoo|=
r r
> 2fSe s }7 > n 2fSe s
? ?
Wr vxppdulvh/ rxu ehvw jxhvv dw wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri vwxghqw khljkw lv 4:715
fp1 Zh fdq eh <8( frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh dyhudjh khljkw olhv ehwzhhq 4:41; dqg 4:919 fp1
zkhuh }S ghqrwhv wkh ydoxh ri wkh fxwr wr eh dssolhg1 Wr qg wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh Qrupdo
zklfk olhv ehorz wklv fxwr/ zh qhhg wr fdofxodwh wkh vwdqgduglvhg Qrupdo=
}S >9 Hf .e2
%' 9
' ' fb.H
j Db
Wkdw lv/ rxu fxwr lv doprvw rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq deryh wkh phdq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Iurp
Wdeoh 4 zh qg wkdw
% xE%
fb. fH ef
fbH fH SD
ru=
Xvh zklfkhyhu |rx qg prvw frpsuhkhqvleoh1 Wdeoh 4/ wkhuhiruh/ whoov xv wkdw 31;693 ri d
Qrupdo olhv ehorz 31<:;4 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv deryh wkh phdq1 Lq vlpsohu whupv/ 31;693 ri
rxu srsxodwlrq olhv ehorz rxu fxwr1 Rxu txhvwlrq/ krzhyhu/ zdv krz pxfk ri wkh srsxodwlrq
od| deryh wkh fxwr=
>9 lw lv idluo| reylrxv wkdw wkh dyhudjh diwhu wkh fxwr lv dssolhg ghshqgv rq zkdw wkh dyhudjh
zdv ehiruh lw zdv dssolhg$
j9 wkh eljjhu wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ wkh eljjhu wkh lpsdfw ri d fxwr ydoxh wkh pruh
yduldeoh wkh pdwhuldo/ wkh pruh lpsdfw vhohfwlqj d sursruwlrq ri lw zloo kdyh rq wkh
dyhudjh ydoxh1
wkh ohvv zh vhohfw/ wkh eljjhu wkh lpsdfw rq wkh dyhudjh ydoxh li zh rqo| frqvlghu wkh
wrs 58(/ wkh dyhudjh zloo eh pxfk kljkhu wkdq li zh wdnh wkh xsshu :8(1
qrw vr lqwxlwlyho| reylrxv/ shukdsv= li wkh fxwr olhv lq wkh plggoh ri wkh glvwulexwlrq +kljk
, wkh lpsdfw ri fkdqjlqj wkh fxwr voljkwo| zloo eh pxfk juhdwhu wkdq li wkh fxwr olhv
rxw lq rqh ri wkh cwdlov* ri wkh judsk1
Edfn wr rxu h{dpsoh= WhfkYdo vwxghqwv dw ru wdoohu wkdq 4;3 fp1 Soxjjlqj rxu ydoxhv lq wkh
irupxod deryh=
j9
>9S ' >9 n E%
Db
' .e2 n s i TEfD fb.H2
fSef 2 eDb2SDe
' .e2 n SDHD f bHb fSbH
' H e fp
Lq frqfoxvlrq zh fdq vd| wkdw 4917( ri wkh srwhqwldo WhfkYdo vwxghqwv duh dw ru wdoohu wkdq
4;3 fp dqg wkdw wkhvh vwxghqwv zloo dyhudjh 4;614 fp lq khljkw1
Qrwh= |rx kdyh d frxsoh ri txlfn fdofxodwlrq fkhfnv wr pdnh vxuh |rx duh jhwwlqj wkh uljkw
dqvzhuv1 Wkh E% whup fdqqrw eh eljjhu wkdq 316<;</ vlqfh wkh i T whup fdqqrw jhw eljjhu
wkdq 41 Vhfrqgo|/ wkh dyhudjh deryh fxwr kdv wr eh eljjhu wkdq wkh ruljlqdo dyhudjh$$ Li |rx
Vrphwlphv |rx gr qrw nqrz zkdw wkh hyhqwxdo fxwr ru vhohfwlrq fulwhulrq zloo eh1 Lq wkdw
fdvh/ |rx fdq fduu| rxw wklv fdofxodwlrq orwv ri wlphv iru glhuhqw fxwrv dqg surgxfh zkdw
plqhuv fdoo d judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyh1 Iru wklv h{dpsoh/ zh jhw wkh iroorzlqj wdeoh dqg judsk=
\hw dqrwkhu qrwh= wkhuh lv qrwklqj p|vwlfdo derxw wkh furvvryhu srlqw rq wklv judsk1 Lw
ghshqgv wrwdoo| rq zkdw vfdoh |rx fkrrvh iru |rxu d{hv$$
Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh kdyh frqvlghuhg wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq vdpsoh gdwd dqg srsxodwlrq zkhq
wkh srsxodwlrq iroorzv d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ wkh ehvw hvwlpdwru iru wkh phdq
ri wkh srsxodwlrq lv wkh phdq ri wkh vdpsohv1 Wkh ehvw hvwlpdwru iru wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
iru wkh srsxodwlrq lv d voljkwo| prglhg yhuvlrq ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq xvhg wr ghvfuleh
wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Ehfdxvh zh kdyh wr xvh wkh vdpsoh phdq wr dssur{lpdwh wkh srsxodwlrq
phdq/ zh kdyh wr dgmxvw rxu vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq fdofxodwlrq wr dffrxqw iru wkdw1
Kdylqj irxqg rxu hvwlpdwhv iru wkh srsxodwlrq sdudphwhuv/ rxu vhfrqg txhvwlrq zdv krz
uholdeoh duh wkrvh hvwlpdwhvB1 Zh irxqg wkdw zh frxog txdqwli| wkh dqvzhu xvlqj frqghqfh
lqwhuydov1 Wkhvh frqghqfh lqwhuydov duh ghulyhg e| wkh iroorzlqj surfhvv ri orjlf=
vxssrvh wkdw zh kdg wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq dqg frxog glylgh lw lqwr htxdo vl}h jurxsv ri
? vdpsohv
iru hdfk jurxs/ zh frxog fdofxodwh wkh vwdwlvwlf ri lqwhuhvw +h1j1 wkh dyhudjh,
Ehiruh zh ohdyh wklv fkdswhu/ zh pxvw phqwlrq wkh Fhqwudo Olplw Wkhruhp1 Dffruglqj wr wkh
FOW/ rxu ruljlqdo glvwulexwlrq grhv qrw kdyh wr eh Qrupdo wr xvh wkhvh frqghqfh lqwhuydov1
Qr pdwwhu zkdw wkh ruljlqdo glvwulexwlrq ri }/ li zh sxw hqrxjk vdpsohv lqwr wkh fdofxodwlrq
ri wkh dyhudjh wkhq }7 zloo kdyh d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq dqg zh fdq xvh Wdeohv 5/ 6 dqg 7 dv
dssursuldwh1
Wkh fdwfk lq wkh deryh vwdwhphqw lv wkh zrug hqrxjk1 Krz pdq| lv hqrxjkB Li |rx
vwduw zlwk d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq/ rqh lv hqrxjk1 Li |rx vwduw zlwk d xqlirup glvwulexwlrq/
45 lv hqrxjk lq idfw/ wklv lv krz vrph shrsoh +lqfoxglqj LF, jhqhudwh Qrupdo udqgrp
qxpehuv1 Li |rx vwduw zlwk d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq +vhh qh{w fkdswhu,/ |rx qhyhu kdyh
hqrxjk1111111111111111111111
Rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv=
vnhzqhvv f22Hf
nxuwrvlv 2efeH frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq 313<<6
Uhylhzlqj wkhvh=
Wkh udqjh lv durxqg 716 wlphv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq wkdw lv/ 5148 hlwkhu vlgh ri
wkh phdq1 Xvlqj Wdeoh 4/ zh qg wkdw 31<;75 ri d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq olhv ehorz
>.5148j1 Wkdw phdqv wkdw 31348; olhv deryh >.5148j dqg/ e| v|pphwu|/ 31348; olhv
ehorz >5148j1 Vr/ e| glhuhqfh doprvw <:( ri d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq olhv zlwklq 5148
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv ri wkh phdq1 Dv d jhqhudo uxoh ri wkxpe/ wkh udqjh vkrxog eh
vrphzkhuh ehwzhhq 7 dqg 9 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv ghshqglqj rq krz pdq| vdpsohv zh
kdyh1
Wkh lqwhutxduwloh udqjh iru wklv gdwd lv durxqg 4168 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv/ wkdw lv 319:8
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv hlwkhu vlgh ri wkh phdq1 Lq dq lghdo Qrupdo/ xvlqj Wdeoh 4/ zh qg
31:835 olhv ehorz >.319:8j1 Wkdw lv/ 83137( ri wkh glvwulexwlrq olhv ehwzhhq > fS.Dj1
Qrz/ ohw xv wxuq wr d suredelolw| sorw iru d vzliw dqg vlpsoh ylvxdo ghflvlrq1
Dv lqglfdwhg e| prvw ri wkh ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv/ wkh glvwulexwlrq lv suhww| forvh wr Qrupdo
hvshfldoo| frqvlghulqj wkdw zh rqo| kdyh <9 vdpsohv iurp d yhu| odujh srsxodwlrq1 Wkhuh
lv d dwwhqlqj r lq wkh orzhu wdlo/ zklfk lv suredeo| wkh fdxvh ri wkh orz nxuwrvlv jxuh1 Zh
zloo dffhsw wkh dvvxpswlrq ri Qrupdolw| dqg surfhhg wr hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq iurp zklfk wkhvh vdpsohv zhuh gudzq1
Lq vxppdu|/ rxu ehvw jxhvv dw wkh srsxodwlrq phdq lv 571957 PM dqg zh fdq eh <3(
frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh ydoxh olhv ehwzhhq 57153; dqg 581373 PM1
61 judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv= xvlqj wkh hvwlpdwhg phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ zh fdq
surgxfh vhohfwlrq fdofxodwlrqv dqg judsk wkhvh dv judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv1 Vlqfh rxu
ruljlqdo ydoxhv ydu| iurp doprvw 53 wr mxvw ryhu 63/ wklv zrxog vhhp olnh d vhqvleoh udqjh
ri fxwrv wr wu| lq wkh devhqfh ri dq| rwkhu lqghshqghqw fulwhuld1 Dffruglqj wr wkhru|/
wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq zklfk olhv deryh fxwr/ / zrxog eh jlyhq e|=
fxwr >9
%'
j9
' xE%
Vlqfh Wdeoh 4 rqo| jlyhv x ydoxhv iru srvlwlyh %*v/ li % lv qhjdwlyh zh zrxog xvh=
' xEm%m
wkdw lv/ wkh x ydoxh iru wkh devroxwh ydoxh ri %1 Wkh uhvxowv duh wdeohg ehorz dqg vkrzq
lq wkh judsk1
Rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv=
vnhzqhvv 313635
nxuwrvlv 5136;< frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq 3147
Uhylhzlqj wkhvh=
Wkh phdq dqg phgldq duh idluo| forvh wrjhwkhu/ zklovw wkh prgdo lqwhuydo lv durxqg wkh
vdph1 Lq wkh lghdo Qrupdo/ phdq/ phgldq dqg prgh duh lghqwlfdo1
Wkh lqwhutxduwloh udqjh iru wklv gdwd lv durxqg 41<; vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv/ wkdw lv 31<<
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv hlwkhu vlgh ri wkh phdq1 Lq dq lghdo Qrupdo/ xvlqj Wdeoh 4/ zh qg
31;6;< olhv ehorz >.31<<j1 Wkdw lv/ 9;( ri wkh glvwulexwlrq olhv ehwzhhq > fbbj1 Wklv
grhv qrw phvk wrr zhoo zlwk rqo| 83( ri wkh revhuyhg gdwd o|lqj ehwzhhq wkhvh olplwv1
Qrz/ ohw xv wxuq wr d suredelolw| sorw iru d vzliw dqg vlpsoh ylvxdo ghflvlrq1
Iljxuh 6144= suredelolw| sorw iru lurq ruh gdwd dvvxplqj Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
s
T ' e.f (Ih
T ' 22eS
? Df
T ' 22eS ' 22DSSf ' r2
? seb
r ' 22DSSf ' e.D (Ih ' j9
zkhuh j9 lv vkruwkdqg iru dq hvwlpdwh ri wkh srsxodwlrq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq j1 Rxu ehvw
hvwlpdwh iru wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh fdorulf ydoxhv lv/ wkhuhiruh/ e.D (Ih1
Wr sxw d frqghqfh lqwhuydo durxqg wklv/ zh qhhg wr xvh Wdeoh 6 zlwk D ' ? ' eb
ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Zh gr qrw kdyh vxfk d olqh lq rxu wdeoh/ vr zh pxvw lqwhusrodwh1
Iru wklv h{dpsoh/ zh zloo xvh d <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo=
2bD 2fD
D ' ef 59184 D ' ef 881:9
D ' Df 671:9 D ' Df 9:18
D ' eb 661<68 D ' eb 991659
vr wkdw=
E? r2
2bD 2fD
j2
eb e.D2
b D SS 2S
j2
Uhduudqjlqj wkh whupv=
eb e.D2 2 eb e.D2
j
SS 2S b D
SS.2 j2 2DH H
efH j D.
Lq vxppdu|/ rxu ehvw hvwlpdwh iru wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv e.D (Ih dqg zh
fdq eh <3( frqghqw wkdw wklv wuxh ydoxh olhv ehwzhhq 713; dqg 81:4 (Ih1
D ' ef 419;7
D ' Df 419:9
D ' eb 419:9;
vr wkdw=
r r
}7 |DcffD s > }7 n |DcffD s
? ?
e.D e.D
eDf S.SH s > eDf n S.SH s
Df Df
eDf 2SD > eDf n 2SD
H > DS
Lq vxppdu|/ rxu ehvw jxhvv dw wkh srsxodwlrq phdq lv 67183 (Ih dqg zh fdq eh <3(
frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh ydoxh olhv ehwzhhq H dqg DS (Ih1
61 judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv= xvlqj wkh hvwlpdwhg phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ zh fdq
surgxfh vhohfwlrq fdofxodwlrqv dqg judsk wkhvh dv judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv1 Vlqfh rxu
ruljlqdo ydoxhv ydu| iurp ryhu 57 wr mxvw ryhu 77/ wklv zrxog vhhp olnh d vhqvleoh udqjh ri
fxwrv wr wu| lq wkh devhqfh ri dq| rwkhu lqghshqghqw fulwhuld1 Dffruglqj wr wkhru|/
wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq zklfk olhv deryh fxwr/ / zrxog eh jlyhq e|=
fxwr >9 fxwr eDf
%' 9
'
j e.D
' xE%
Vlqfh Wdeoh 4 rqo| jlyhv x ydoxhv iru srvlwlyh %*v/ li % lv qhjdwlyh zh zrxog xvh=
' xEm%m
wkdw lv/ wkh x ydoxh iru wkh devroxwh ydoxh ri %1 Wkh uhvxowv duh wdeohg ehorz dqg vkrzq
lq wkh judsk1
Rwkhu vwdwlvwlfv=
vnhzqhvv 31834:
nxuwrvlv 518655 frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq 316368
Uhylhzlqj wkhvh=
Wkh phdq dqg phgldq duh txlwh glvvlplodu/ zklovw wkh prgdo lqwhuydo lv orzhu1 Lq wkh
lghdo Qrupdo/ phdq/ phgldq dqg prgh duh lghqwlfdo1
Wkh udqjh lv durxqg 715 wlphv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq wkdw lv/ 514 hlwkhu vlgh ri wkh
phdq1 Xvlqj Wdeoh 4/ zh qg wkdw 31<;5 ri d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq olhv ehorz >.514j1
Wkdw phdqv wkdw 3134; olhv deryh >.514j dqg/ e| v|pphwu|/ 3134; olhv ehorz >514j1
Vr/ e| glhuhqfh ryhu <9( ri d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq olhv zlwklq 514 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv
ri wkh phdq1 Dv d jhqhudo uxoh ri wkxpe/ wkh udqjh vkrxog eh vrphzkhuh ehwzhhq 7 dqg
9 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv ghshqglqj rq krz pdq| vdpsohv zh kdyh1
Wkh lqwhutxduwloh udqjh iru wklv gdwd lv durxqg 4196 vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv/ wkdw lv 31;48
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv hlwkhu vlgh ri wkh phdq1 Lq dq lghdo Qrupdo/ xvlqj Wdeoh 4/ zh qg
31:<58 olhv ehorz >.31;48j1 Wkdw lv/ 8;18( ri wkh glvwulexwlrq olhv ehwzhhq > fHDj1
Qrz/ ohw xv wxuq wr d suredelolw| sorw iru d vzliw dqg vlpsoh ylvxdo ghflvlrq1
Dv lqglfdwhg e| prvw ri wkh ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv/ wkh glvwulexwlrq lv suhww| forvh wr Qrupdo
hvshfldoo| frqvlghulqj wkdw zh rqo| kdyh ;8 vdpsohv iurp d yhu| odujh srsxodwlrq1 Wkhuh
lv d dwwhqlqj r lq wkh orzhu wdlo/ zklfk lv suredeo| wkh fdxvh ri wkh orz nxuwrvlv jxuh1 Zh
zloo dffhsw wkh dvvxpswlrq ri Qrupdolw| dqg surfhhg wr hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq iurp zklfk wkhvh vdpsohv zhuh gudzq1
41 hvwlpdwlrq ri vwdqgdug s ghyldwlrq= rxu cvdpsoh* vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq zdv 93:1: u|1
Wklv zdv fdofxodwhg iurp T zklfk zdv glylghg e| ?1 Zh qhhg r1 Vlqfh zh kdyh
s
douhdg| fdofxodwhg T / zh fdq rewdlq r zlwkrxw kdylqj wr jr edfn wkurxjk wkh zkroh
fdofxodwlrq djdlq=
s
T
' Sf.. u|
T
' Sb bHf
? HD
T ' Sb bHf ' . . S. ' r2
? He
s
r ' . . S. ' S u| ' j9
zkhuh j9 lv vkruwkdqg iru dq hvwlpdwh ri wkh srsxodwlrq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq j1 Rxu ehvw
hvwlpdwh iru wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh srwhqwlrphwulf ohyhov lv/ wkhuhiruh/ S
iw1 Wr sxw d frqghqfh lqwhuydo durxqg wklv/ zh qhhg wr xvh Wdeoh 6 zlwk D ' ? ' He
ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Zh gr qrw kdyh vxfk d olqh lq rxu wdeoh/ vr zh pxvw lqwhusrodwh1
Iru wklv h{dpsoh/ zh zloo xvh d <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo=
D 2bD D 2fD
;3 9316< ;3 4341<
<3 9<146 <3 44614
;7 961;;9 ;7 43916;
Lq vxppdu|/ rxu ehvw hvwlpdwh iru wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv 94416 dqg zh fdq eh
<3( frqghqw wkdw wklv wuxh ydoxh olhv ehwzhhq 9<519 dqg 8691:6 iw1
51 hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh phdq= rxu ehvw hvwlpdwh ri wkh phdq ri wkh Qrupdo srsxodwlrq
lv >9 ' }7 ' 2ff2 iw1 Xvlqj Wdeoh 7 zlwk ;7 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp +D,/ zh qg d <3(
frqghqfh lqwhuydo lv frqwdlqhg e| wkh Vwxghqw*v | ydoxh ri 41998;=
D |
Sf S.
2f SDH
He SSDH
vr wkdw=
r r
}7 |DcffD s > }7 n |D cffD s
? ?
S S
2ff2 SSDH s > 2ff2 n SSDH s
HD HD
2ff2 fD > 2ff2 n fD
HbH > 22.
Lq vxppdu|/ li zh dvvxph wkdw rxu gdwd fdph iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq/ rxu ehvw
jxhvv dw wkh srsxodwlrq phdq lv 533516 dqg zh fdq eh <3( frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh ydoxh
olhv ehwzhhq HbH dqg 22. iw1
61 judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv= xvlqj wkh hvwlpdwhg phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ zh fdq
surgxfh vhohfwlrq fdofxodwlrqv dqg judsk wkhvh dv judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv1 Vlqfh rxu
ruljlqdo ydoxhv ydu| iurp doprvw 4333 wr mxvw xqghu 7333/ wklv zrxog vhhp olnh d vhqvleoh
udqjh ri fxwrv wr wu| lq wkh devhqfh ri dq| rwkhu lqghshqghqw fulwhuld1 Dffruglqj wr
wkhru|/ wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq zklfk olhv deryh fxwr/ / zrxog eh jlyhq e|=
fxwr >9
% '
j9
' xEm%m
Iljxuh 6147= suredelolw| sorw iru vfdoors gdwd dvvxplqj d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
zkhuh j9 lv vkruwkdqg iru dq hvwlpdwh ri wkh srsxodwlrq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq j1 Rxu ehvw
hvwlpdwh iru wkh wuxh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh srwhqwlrphwulf ohyhov lv/ wkhuhiruh/ HefD1
Wr sxw d frqghqfh lqwhuydo durxqg wklv/ zh qhhg wr xvh Wdeoh 6 zlwk D ' ? ' e.
ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Zh gr qrw kdyh vxfk d olqh lq rxu wdeoh/ ehfdxvh lw vwrsv dw 4331
Iru ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp juhdwhu wkdq 433 zh qhhg hlwkhu wr frqvwuxfw dqrwkhu wdeohs ru wr
xvh d vkruwfxw1 Wkhru| whoov xv wkdw/ zkhq wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrpsjhw kljk/ wkhq 22
iroorzv dq dssur{lpdwlrq wr wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk phdq 2D dqg yduldqfh
htxdo wr 41 Wkdw lv=
s s
% ' 22 2D
vkrxog iroorz d vwdqgdug Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Li wklv lv vr/ zh fdq orrn xs Wdeoh 5
lqvwhdg ri Wdeoh 6/ wr jhw rxu shufhqwdjh srlqwv1 Iru wklv h{dpsoh/ zh zloo xvh d <3(
frqghqfh lqwhuydo=
Seeb % nSeeb
vr wkdw=
s s
Seeb 22 2D nSeeb
Qrz zh frxog vtxduh hyhu|wklqj rxw dqg jhw rxu wzr 2 ydoxhv iru wkh h{suhvvlrq=
E? r2
2bD 2fD
j2
ru zh fdq eh d olwwoh fohyhu dqg vkruw0flufxlw wkh surfhvv e| uhzulwlqj dv=
u
E? r2
De. 2 H.S
j2
s r
De. 2E? H.S
j
51 hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh phdq= rxu ehvw hvwlpdwh ri wkh phdq ri wkh Qrupdo srsxodwlrq
ri wrwdo vfdoors fdwfk lv >9 ' }7 ' 2.eS1 Wdeoh 7 grhv qrw jr xs wr ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp
D@47: vr zh zloo uhyhuw wr Wdeoh 51 Zh qg d <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo lv frqwdlqhg e|
wkh Vwxghqw*v | ydoxh ri 41977</ vr wkdw=
r r
}7 |cffD s > }7 n |cffD s
? ?
HefD HefD
2.eS Seeb s > 2.eS n Seeb s
eH eH
2.eS S > 2.eS n S
Sf > HH2
Lq vxppdu|/ rxu ehvw jxhvv dw wkh srsxodwlrq phdq lv 2.eS dqg zh fdq rq wkh dv0
vxpswlrq ri Qrupdolw| ru/ dw ohdvw/ wkdw wkh Fhqwudo Olplw wkhruhp krogv eh <3(
frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh ydoxh olhv ehwzhhq Sf dqg HH21
61 judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv= xvlqj wkh hvwlpdwhg phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ zh fdq
surgxfh vhohfwlrq fdofxodwlrqv dqg judsk wkhvh dv judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv1 Vlqfh rxu
ruljlqdo ydoxhv ydu| iurp doprvw }hur wr ryhu 5333/ wklv zrxog vhhp olnh d vhqvleoh udqjh
ri fxwrv wr wu| lq wkh devhqfh ri dq| rwkhu lqghshqghqw fulwhuld1 Dffruglqj wr wkhru|/
wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq zklfk olhv deryh fxwr/ / zrxog eh jlyhq e|=
fxwr >9
% '
j9
' xEm%m
61:1 H{huflvhv
Wu| hdfk ri wkh h{dpsohv lq wkh suhylrxv fkdswhu dqg=
+d, ghflgh li wkh gdwd lv olnho| wr kdyh ehhq gudzq iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq>
+g, rq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw lw kdv/ hvwlpdwh wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq iru wkdw Qrupdo
srsxodwlrq>
+f, jlyh frqghqfh lqwhuydov iru hdfk ri |rxu hvwlpdwhv>
+g, frpphqw rq krz uhdolvwlf wkhvh duh lq oljkw ri |rxu ghflvlrq lq +d,1
Rqh ri wkh pruh lqwxlwlyh zd|v wr mxgjh wkh dprxqw ri vnhzqhvv ri d vhw ri vdpsoh gdwd lv wr
fdofxodwh wkh frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq1 Wklv zdv phqwlrqhg eulh | lq Fkdswhu 5 dqg lv vlpso|
wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq dqg wkh dyhudjh ydoxh=
r
}7
Wklv vwdwlvwlf lv prvw xvhixo li wkh gdwd ydoxhv duh slqqhg wr d orzhu olplw1 Iru h{dpsoh/ pdq|
ri wkh phdvxuhphqwv zklfk zh pdnh fdq rqo| kdyh srvlwlyh ydoxhv1 Li zh duh ghdolqj zlwk
plqhudo judghv/ judlq vl}hv/ srooxwlrq ohyhov/ vrlo sK ru udlqidoo ohyhov +wr qdph exw d ihz, wkh
phdvxuhg ydoxhv fdq rqo| eh srvlwlyh ru }hur1
Qrz/ rxu lghdolvhg Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq fdq wdnh ydoxhv +wkhruhwlfdoo|, grzq wr plqxv
lqqlw|1 Wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq kdv
49( ri lwv ydoxhv ehorz wkh phdq plqxv rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq>
518( ri lwv ydoxhv ehorz wkh phdq plqxv wzr vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv>
31468( ri lwv ydoxhv ehorz wkh phdq plqxv wkuhh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv +vhh Wdeoh 4,
dqg vr rq1 Wkh suredelolw| ri jhwwlqj ydoxhv ixuwkhu dqg ixuwkhu iurp wkh phdq glplqlvkhv
udslgo| diwhu wkuhh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv exw qhyhu txlwh glvdsshduv1 Wklv phdqv wkdw/ iru d
Qrupdo prgho wr eh dw doo ihdvleoh iru wwlqj wr d vhw ri gdwd/ zh pxvw eh deoh wr w dw ohdvw
wkuhh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv lq ehwzhhq wkh phdq dqg }hur1 Wkh frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq lv vlpso|
wkh udwlr ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq wr wkh phdq1 Li wkh ydoxh ri wklv vwdwlvwlf jhwv kljkhu wkdq
derxw rqh0wklug/ zh fdqqrw jhw wkuhh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv ehwzhhq wkh phdq dqg }hur dqg
pxvw uhwklqn wkh Qrupdo dvvxpswlrq1
Lw lv zruwk hpskdvlvlqj wkdw d frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq ehorz rqh0wklug grhvq*w jxdudqwhh d
Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh fdoflxp h{dpsoh deryh kdv d frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq ri 313:58 exw lw
Vr/ zkdw gr zh gr li rxu glvwulexwlrq fdqqrw eh dssur{lpdwhg e| d QrupdoB Wkhuh duh pdq|
glhuhqw srvvlelolwlhv/ zklfk |rx fdq qg grfxphqwhg lq vwdwlvwlfv errnv1 Zh zloo rqo| orrn dw
d frxsoh wr jlyh |rx wkh lghd ri krz wklqjv zrun rxw lq wkh frqwh{w ri rxu cvsdwldo hvwlpdwlrq*
sureohp1 Li |rx kdyh vrphwklqj pruh frpsoh{/ wklv glvfxvvlrq zloo +krshixoo|, jlyh |rx vrph
srlqwhuv rq zkdw slwidoov wr zdwfk iru1
Lq rughu wr xvh prvw +wkhq, h{lvwlqj vwdwlvwlfdo phwkrgv/ lw zdv qhfhvvdu| wr kdyh d urxjko|
Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq iru |rxu vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Li |rxu klvwrjudp lv kljko| srvlwlyho| vnhzhg/ wkh
Qrupdo zloo qrw khos |rx1 Wkh wulfn/ wkhq/ lv wr shuvxdgh |rxu vdpsohv wr dfw Qrupdoo|1
vwduwhg dw }hur/
Dq lghdo Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq vwduwv dw plqxv lqqlw|/ lv v|pphwulf durxqg lwv phdq dqg wdlov
r suhww| idvw lq wkh gluhfwlrq ri soxv lqqlw|1 Ilqqh| dqg Vlfkho +dqg rwkhuv, fdph xs zlwk
wkh vlpsoh qrwlrq wkdw wklv orrnhg olnh d orjdulwkplf wudqvirup1 Li zh wdnh orjdulwkpv ri rxu
vdpsoh ydoxhv/ wkhq=
wkh orjdulwkp ri }hur lv plqxv lqqlw|= *L}E} ' 4 xvlqj dq| edvh ri orjdulwkpv
lq wkh orz ydoxhv/ wkh glylvlrqv rq d orjdulwkplf vfdoh duh uhodwlyho| idu dsduw
Lq pruh frorxuixo whupv/ d orjdulwkplf wudqvirup vwuhwfkhv rxw wkh orz hqg dqg vtxdvkhv xs
wkh kljk hqg1 Ri frxuvh/ wkdw grhv qrw jxdudqwhh wkdw zh hqg xs zlwk d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
rqfh zh wdnh orjdulwkpv1 Li zh gr qg wkdw wkh orjdulwkpv duh Qrupdo/ wkhq zh fdoo wkh
ruljlqdo glvwulexwlrq d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq1
Li |rx kdyh d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq wkhq wkh orjdulwkpv ri |rxu vdpsoh ydoxhv duh iurp d
Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Krz gr zh ghflgh li d vhw ri gdwd frphv iurp d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrqB
Zh wdnh orjdulwkpv dqg frqvwuxfw d suredelolw| sorw1 Ru |rx fdq ex| +ru sorw, orjdulwkplf
suredelolw| sdshu1 \rx fdq xvh dq| edvh iru wkh orjdulwkpv1 Xqwlo wkh 4<93v/ shrsoh whqghg wr
xvh orjdulwkpv wr wkh edvh 43/ ehfdxvh wdeohv zhuh dydlodeoh iru wkrvh1 Vlqfh wkhq/ zh whqg wr
xvh cqdwxudo* orjdulwkpv wr wkh edvh e/ ehfdxvh wkh pdwkhpdwlfv lv hdvlhu wkdw zd|1 Wkurxjkrxw
wklv errn zh zloo xvh *L}e wr ghqrwh qdwxudo orjdulwkpv1 Li |rx ihho pruh frpiruwdeoh zlwk *?/
ihho iuhh wr vfuleeoh ryhu wkh kdugfrs| +exw qrw wkh vfuhhq/ sohdvh$,1
Iru rxu h{dpsoh/ wkh zlgwk ri wkh jrog uhhi kdv dq hvwlpdwhg phdq ri 9917<; fp dqg dq
hvwlpdwhg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 831585 fp/ jlylqj d frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq ri 31:88:1 Vlqfh uhhi
zlgwkv fdqqrw/ e| ghqlwlrq/ eh ohvv wkdq }hur wklv lqglfdwhv d srvlwlyho| vnhzhg glvwulexwlrq1
Wkh suredelolw| sorw lq Iljxuh 714 vxssruwv wklv vxssrvlwlrq1 Li zh uhsorw wkh suredelolw| sorw
xvlqj wkh orjdulwkpv ri wkh ydoxhv +ru rq d orjdulwkplf vfdoh, zh jhw Iljxuh 7161
Wklv lv qrw dq lghdo vwudljkw olqh exw forvh hqrxjk iru rxu sxusrvhv1 Zh zloo dffhsw wkdw wkh
zlgwk ri wkh jrog uhhi lq wklv duhd iroorzv d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Wr hvwlpdwh wkh dyhudjh
uhhi zlgwk lq wkh zkroh surmhfw duhd/ zh fdofxodwh=
[
+ ' f.fb.
[
+2 ' e S.S22
zkhuh + lv wkh qdwxudo orjdulwkp ri wkh uhhi zlgwk/ } 1 Hvwlpdwlqj wkh phdq dqg fdofxodwlqj
wkh vdpsoh yduldqfh=
[
>W ' + ' f.fb. ' bS.f + *L}e fp,
? 2.
[ 2
T ' + E>W2 ' e S.S22 bS.f2 ' fe b + *L}e fp,2
? 2.
2 ?
r ' T ' feDSf + *L}e fp,2
?
r ' fS.D + *L}e fp,
Vr/ zh qrz kdyh rswlpdo hvwlpdwhv iru wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh orjdulwkp ri
wkh zlgwk ri wkh jrog uhhi1 Zh frxog sodfh frqghqfh lqwhuydov durxqg wkhvh/ gr suredelolw|
fdofxodwlrqv rq wkhvh dqg dsso| vhohfwlrq fulwhuld/ fxwr ydoxhv/ sd| olplwv ru zkdwhyhu |rx
zdqw wr fdoo wkhp wr wkh orjdulwkpv1
Wkh sureohp lv wkdw zh gr qrw uhdoo| fduh zkdw wkh phdq ri wkh orjdulwkpv lv1 Zh uhdoo|
zdqw wr nqrz zkdw wkh dyhudjh wklfnqhvv ri wkh uhhi lv1 Zh zdqw wr nqrz frqghqfh ohyhov iru
wkh dyhudjh wklfnqhvv1 Zh zdqw wr nqrz krz olnho| wkh uhhi zlgwk lv wr h{fhhg vrph ghvludeoh
fulwhulrq1 Doo ri wkhvh txhvwlrqv duh derxw wkh orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq ri wkh uhhi zlgwkv qrw
derxw wkh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq ri wkh orjdulwkp ri zlgwk1
Zh fdq hvwlpdwh wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh uljkw0kdqg glvwulexwlrq wkdw ri wkh orjdulwkpv1
Zkdw zh zdqw duh wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh ohiw0kdqg glvwulexwlrq/ wkh orjqrupdo1 Vlfkho dqg
Ilqqh| vshqw vrph wlph dqg hruw ghulylqj wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkhvh
wzr glvwulexwlrqv1 Vlqfh zh kdyh xvhg > dqg j iru wkh phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh
orjdulwkpv/ zh qhhg glhuhqw v|perov iru wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh orjqrupdo1 Dv wkhuh vhhpv wr
eh qr vwdqgdug qrwdwlrq/ zh zloo ghqh +wkh Juhhn ohwwhu |, dv wkh orjqrupdo phdq dqg /
+orzhu fdvh rphjd, dv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh orjqrupdo1 Wkh frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq ri
wkh orjqrupdo zrxog eh /* / zklfk lv d gluhfw phdvxuh ri wkh vnhzqhvv ri wkh glvwulexwlrq1
Lq wkhru|/ wkh iroorzlqj uhodwlrqvklsv h{lvw=
Wkh phgldq ri wkh orjqrupdo lv wkh dqwl0orj ri wkh phgldq ri wkh orjdulwkpv1 D vdpsoh
zkrvh orjdulwkp lv ehorz wkh phgldq orjdulwkp zloo kdyh lwv cudz* ydoxh orzhu wkdq wkh
Wkh prgh ri wkh orjqrupdo zloo eh orzhu wkdq wkh phgldq1 Vlqfh zh kdyh wr vtxdvk kdoi
ri wkh ydoxhv ehwzhhq wkh phgldq dqg }hur dqg vwuhwfk wkh rwkhu kdoi iurp wkh phgldq
wr soxv lqqlw|/ wkh cshdn* zloo eh wr wkh ohiw ri wkh phgldq1
Wkh dulwkphwlf phdq ri wkh cudz* ydoxhv zloo eh kljkhu wkdq wkh phgldq1 Uhphpehu wkdw
wkh dulwkphwlf phdq lv wkh fhqwuh ri judylw| ru edodqfh srlqw iru wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Lq d
v|pphwulf glvwulexwlrq/ zh kdyh d ydoxh wr wkh ohiw zklfk h{dfwo| edodqfhv d ydoxh wr wkh
uljkw1 Lq d srvlwlyho| vnhzhg glvwulexwlrq/ wkh ydoxhv wr wkh uljkw qhhg pruh wkdq rqh
ydoxh wr wkh ohiw iru edodqfh1 Wkh phdq zloo vkliw iurp wkh phgldq wrzdugv wkh orqj wdlo1
Lq d qhjdwlyho| vnhzhg glvwulexwlrq/ wkh uhyhuvh zrxog dsso|1 Iurp wkh pdwkhpdwlfv/
zh qg wkdw=
Wkdw lv/ zh kdyh wr dgg rqh0kdoi ri wkh orjdulwkplf yduldqfh wr wkh orjdulwkplf phdq
ehiruh zh dqwl0orj wr jhw wkh cudz* phdq1
Wkh yduldqfh ri wkh cudz* ydoxhv lv uhodwhg wr wkh yduldqfh ri wkh orjdulwkpv exw dovr
wr wkh phdq ydoxh ri wkh cudz* ydoxhv=
/2 ' 2 i T j2
Rqh pdmru lpsolfdwlrq ri wklv uhodwlrqvkls lv wkdw wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri d orjqrupdo
lv qrw lqghshqghqw ri wkh dyhudjh ydoxh/ exw gluhfwo| uhodwhg wr lw1 Lw lv qr orqjhu d
phdvxuh ri vsuhdg/ exw d phdvxuh ri vnhzqhvv1 Lw lv wkh orjdulwkplf vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
zklfk lv wkh wuxh phdvxuh ri vsuhdg1
Qrwh= Sohdvh uhphpehu wkdw wkhvh uhodwlrqvklsv rqo| krog iru qdwxudo orjdulwkpv1 Wklqjv jhw
pruh frpsolfdwhg li |rx xvh d glhuhqw edvh1
dqg wklv dfwxdoo| zrunv suhww| zhoo li |rx kdyh hqrxjk vdpsohv vd|/ pruh wkdq 731 Xq0
iruwxqdwho|/ dv Vlfkho glvfryhuhg/ wklv hvwlpdwru lv eldvvhg iru vpdoohu qxpehu ri vdpsohv1 Kh
Dv |rx fdq vhh/ wkh eldv fruuhfwlrq idfwru vlpso| wdnhv wkh sodfh ri wkh yduldqfh frpsrqhqw
lq wkh htxdwlrq1 Vlfkho fdoohg klv hvwlpdwru |1
Iru rxu uhhi zlgwk h{dpsoh/ wkh fdofxodwlrq zrxog jr dv iroorzv1 Xvlqj Wdeoh : zh qg ? ET
iurp=
? ' 2D ? ' f ? ' 2.
T ' fef 41553 41553 41553
T ' fDf 415;4 415;4 415;4
T ' fe b 41576;
Wkdw lv/ rxu cehvw* hvwlpdwru iru wkh dyhudjh uhhi zlgwk ryhu wkh surmhfw duhd lv 981:3< fp1
Wr qg d fhqwudo <3I frqghqfh lqwhuydo/ iru rxu uhhi zlgwkv/ zh xvh Wdeohv ;+e, dqg ;+h,1
Qrwh wkdw Vlfkho*v qrwdwlrq iru wkh ohyho ri frqghqfh lv wkh rssrvlwh iru fodvvlfdo vwdwlvwlfdo
wdeohv/ vxfk dv wkh 2 lq Wdeoh 61 Lqwhusrodwlqj ehwzhhq urzv iru T @317<64 dqg 5: vdpsohv/
zh rewdlq=
[ffD 58 63 5: [fbD 58 63 5:
Y@317 31;4: 31;64 Y@317 41669 415<6
Y@318 31:<8 31;44 Y@318 416<6 41676
Y@3176<4 31;3;7 31;565 31;476 Y@3176<4 4168;6 416458 416733
vr wkdw=
Wkdw lv/ rxu ehvw hvwlpdwh iru wkh dyhudjh uhhi zlgwk ryhu wkh duhd lv 981: fp zlwk <3(
frqghqfh wkdw wkh wuxh phdq olhv ehwzhhq 8618 dqg ;;13 fp1
51 yduldqfh ri orjdulwkpv/ T
61 dgglwlyh frqvwdqw/ q
D pruh fodvvlfdo vwdwlvwlfdo dssurdfk zrxog ghqh wkh wkuhh sdudphwhu orjqrupdo xvlqj wkh
sdudphwhuv=
61 dgglwlyh frqvwdqw/ q
Iljxuh 718 vkrzv wkh jdvd jrog judghv diwhu d frqvwdqw ri 3156 j2w kdv ehhq dgghg wr hdfk
vdpsoh ydoxh1 Wkh glhuhqfh lq w lv lpphgldwho| dssduhqw1
Iuhtxhqwo| dvnhg txhvwlrqv derxw wkh dgglwlyh frqvwdqw lqfoxgh wkh iroorzlqj=
Zhoo/ wkh edg qhzv lv wkdw lw kdv qr sk|vlfdo phdqlqj wkdw zh fdq dvfhuwdlq1 Lw lv/ edvlfdoo|/
mxvw dq ghylfh wr Qrupdolvh wkh orjdulwkpv vr wkdw zh fdq xvh Vlfkho*v wdeohv1 Wkh vl}h lv d
ghedwdeoh lvvxh1 Wkhuh duh ydulrxv cuxohv ri wkxpe*1 Wkh prvw frpprq vhhpv wr eh wkdw li
wkh dgglwlyh frqvwdqw vwduwv wr jhw wr wkh vdph rughu ri pdjqlwxgh dv wkh dyhudjh ydoxh/ zh
duh lq wurxeoh1 Zh zloo uhwxuq wr wklv txhvwlrq lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq1 Krz gr zh hvwlpdwh wkh
dgglwlyh frqvwdqwB Wklv lv wkh whglrxv sduw1 Lq vkruw/ |rx wu| orwv ri ydoxhv dqg fkrrvh wkh
ehvw rqh1
Wkhuh duh wzr pdlq fulwhuld iru zkdw irupv wkh cehvw dgglwlyh frqvwdqw*1 Vlfkho*v uhfrp0
phqgdwlrq lv wkdw |rx fkrrvh wkh q W zklfk surgxfhv d vnhzqhvv rq wkh orjdulwkpv forvhvw wr
}hur1 Wkdw lv/ |rx wu| pdq| glhuhqw dgglwlyh frqvwdqwv dqg wkh ehvw rqh lv zkhuh=
[
?
E+ +7
'
} + ' *L}e E} n f2 +2 } + ' *L}e E} n f2 +2
9177 41;<:9 619343 5189 413593 41385;
5;18< 616944 4415<9; 41<: 31:;;8 31954:
5198 4138:; 4144;< <184 515:95 814;46
4185 3188<9 316465 5137 31;4<; 319:53
4618; 519587 91;<5: 7:1<3 61;:6< 48133:4
;1;5 51535; 71;855 81<; 41;595 61667<
9;199 715658 4:1<474 8178 41:6:3 6134:3
3196 31483; 31355: 3186 315:77 313:86
915; 41;:66 6183<7 6193 41675< 41;366
537189 816553 5;16568 :1<5 513<;3 71734:
65183 617;;6 45149;5 61;3 416<6; 41<759
31<7 3148:3 31357: 3146 41354: 41376;
8144 419:85 51;397 :185 5137:: 714<63
61:6 416:95 41;<73
[ [ 2
T ' E+ >W 2 ' + E>W 2 ' bS.S + *L}e j2w,2
? ?
Xvlqj wkh surfhgxuh uhfrpphqghg e| Vlfkho/ wkh | hvwlpdwru iru wkh dyhudjh judgh zrxog eh=
| ' i TE>W ? ET
Wkdw lv/ rxu cehvw* hvwlpdwru iru wkh dyhudjh ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri orjqrupdo ydoxhv lv 4813<8
j2w1
Wr qg d orzhu <8I frqghqfh ohyho/ zh pxvw djdlq wxuq wr wdeohv1 Lqwhusrodwlqj ehwzhhq
urzv iru T @41<9:9 dqg 5: vdpsohv/ zh rewdlq [ffD@3193571 Wr rewdlq d orzhu <8I frqghqfh
ohyho zh pxowlso| wklv e| |/
[ffD | ' fSf2e DfbD ' bfbe j2w
Wkdw lv/ rxu ehvw hvwlpdwh ri wkh dyhudjh ri wkh orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq lv 4813<8 j2w zlwk
d orzhu <8I frqghqfh ohyho ri <13<7 j2w1 Zh xvhg dq dgglwlyh frqvwdqw/ vr wklv pxvw eh
vxewudfwhg iurp doo ri wkhvh qdo jxuhv=
W
' | q ' eHSD j2w
' xE%S
%S ' %S jW
Zh qg wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq zklfk lv olnho| wr olh deryh wklv qhz % ydoxh=
' xE%S
' xE%S
W W
S '
iru d wzr sdudphwhu orjqrupdo dqg
W
S ' E W
n qW q W
iru wkh wkuhh sdudphwhu orjqrupdo1 Dv ehiruh/ judskv fdq eh frqvwuxfwhg wr vkrz krz wkh
sursruwlrq idoov dqg wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ulvhv dv wkh fxwr lqfuhdvhv1 Wzr zrunhg h{dpsohv
iroorz wr looxvwudwh wkh fdofxodwlrqv1
wkh whup
/W
W
pd| eh uhfrjqlvhg dv wkh frh!flhqw ri yduldwlrq ri wkh xqwudqviruphg ydoxhv1 Dvvxplqj |rx
kdyh wkh sdudphwhuv >W dqg jW/ |rx pd| qrz surfhhg zlwk wkh fdofxodwlrqv=
Zh vkdoo looxvwudwh wkh vhohfwlrq surfhvv zlwk d sd| olplw ri 8 j2w1 Zh pxvw vwdqgduglvh rxu
fxwr ydoxh=
*L}e Efxwr.q >W *L}e ED n f2 .S e
%S ' ' ' ff.S2
jW e2be
Frqvxowlqj Wdeoh 4/ zh qg wkdw iru
% ' nf.S2
xE% ' D fe
Wkdw lv/ 86137I ri d Vwdqgdug Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq olhv ehorz .313:951 E| v|pphwu|/ 86137I
ri wkh glvwulexwlrq olhv deryh f13:95 zklfk lv wkh sursruwlrq + , zh uhtxluh1
Wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkh sursruwlrq deryh fxwr iru d wkuhh sdudphwhu orjqrupdo lv
irxqg e|=
W W
S ' E n q q
zkhuh lv wkh sursruwlrq ri d Vwdqgdug Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq deryh=
Iurp Wdeoh 4/ xEnDfDS ' fb b1 Wkhuhiruh wkh sursruwlrq deryh 418389 lv dovr 31<66<
dqg lv wkh ydoxh iru 1 Vxevwlwxwlqj lq wkh deryh htxdwlrq/ zh qg wkdw WS ' 2S Sb j2w1
Uhphpehu wkh vlpsoh uxoh khuh= li %S lv qhjdwlyh/ wkhq ' xE%S > li %S lv srvlwlyh/ wkhq
' xE%S 1 Vlploduo| iru %S 1
Lq vxppdu|/ wkhq/ zh pd| vd| wkdw/ dw d sd| olplw ri 8 j2w/ wkh cplqhdeoh* sursruwlrq ri
wkh ghsrvlw ru sd|delolw| lv 86137I zlwk dq dyhudjh judgh ru sd| ydoxh ri 59169<
j2w1
fdwfk olplw fdwfk vl}h olnholkrrg fdwfk olplw fdwfk vl}h olnholkrrg
W W
S S I S S I
433 :731;;66 5<19< 443 ::;135:; 5;138
453 ;4717496 59193 463 ;8314667 5815<
473 ;;8157;7 57143 483 <4<1;4<8 56136
493 <861;<:; 55137 4:3 <;:1854; 54147
4;3 43531:64; 53164 4<3 43861888< 4<188
533 43;91356; 4;1;6 543 444;148<7 4;14:
553 447<1<;95 4:188 563 44;4184<6 491<:
573 45451:;46 49176 583 45761:;78 481<5
593 45:71876: 48177 5:3 463813:57 471<<
5;3 466816;4 47189 5<3 469817;4; 47148
Iljxuh 7146= suredelolw| sorw zlwk ehvw w wkuhh sdudphwhu orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq
Iljxuh 7148= fdwfk olplw2sd|delolw| fxuyhv iru wkuhh sdudphwhu orjqrupdo prgho
Iljxuh 7149= vrlo rujdqlf pdwwhu gdwd lqfoxglqj rxwolhu/ orjdulwkplf vfdoh
Lw zrxog vhhp iurp wklv wdeoh wkdw wkh rxwolhu kdv olwwoh lpsdfw rq wkh Vlfkho*v orjqrupdo
hvwlpdwru1
} ' D @
Iljxuh 7153= wklfnqhvv ri wkh yhlq lq Jhhyru Wlq Plqh/ Vlppv Orgh
Iljxuh 7155= wzr frpsrqhqw prgho wwhg wr wklfnqhvv ri yhlq lq doo vdpsohv
Qrz/ wklv lv d k|gurwkhupdo plqhudolvdwlrq lq d judqlwh krvw urfn1 Lq sodlqhu whupv/ krw prowhq
plqhudo zhoohg xs wkurxjk d fudfn lq wkh judqlwh dv wkh odwwhu frrohg grzq idvwhu wkdq wkh
Wlq judghv= vlqfh wkh zkroh duhd zdv qrw plqhg rxw dw wkh gdwh ri wklv vwxg|/ zh uhvwulfw
wkh iroorzlqj glvfxvvlrq wr wkh vdpsohv lq wkh ghyhorsphqw gulyhv/ vlqfh wkh| duh pruh uhsuh0
vhqwdwlyh ri wkh zkroh duhd1 Dq dwwhpsw zdv pdgh wr w orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrqv wr wkh VqR2
frqwhqw ri wkh wlq uhihuuhg wr dv srxqgv ri eodfn wlq shu wrq ri ruh ru oev2wrq1 Wkh uhvxow
fdq eh vhhq lq Iljxuh 71581 Lw lv idluo| reylrxv wkdw wkh wlq lv qrw d vlpsoh orjqrupdo glvwulex0
wlrq1 Diwhu glvfxvvlrqv zlwk wkh Plqh shuvrqqho dqg wkh frqvxowlqj jhrorjlvw/ zh ghwhuplqhg
wkdw wklv vkdsh zdv fdxvhg e| wkh idfw wkdw wkhuh zhuh dfwxdoo| wkuhh k|gurwkhupdo cvxujhv*
frqwulexwlqj wr wkh qdo wlq ghsrvlwhg1 Ilwwlqj d wkuhh frpsrqhqw orjqrupdo prgho wr wkh
gdwd surgxfhv Iljxuhv 7159 +suredelolw| sorw, dqg 715: +klvwrjudp,1 Jhrorjlfdo vwxglhv zhuh
wkhq fduulhg rxw e| wkh Plqh wr ghwhuplqh zklfk ri wkh vwdwlvwlfdo frpsrqhqwv zdv uhodwhg wr
zklfk skdvh ri wkh plqhudolvdwlrq surfhvv1
7191 H{huflvhv
Ghwhuplqh zkhwkhu d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq zrxog eh dssursuldwh iru hdfk ri wkh iroorz0
lqj1 Li qhfhvvdu|/ hvwlpdwh wkh dgglwlyh frqvwdqw qhhghg wr Qrupdolvh wkh orjdulwkpv1 Li wkh
srsxodwlrq fdq uhdvrqdeo| eh h{shfwhg wr eh orjqrupdo/ hvwlpdwh wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkh
srsxodwlrq dqg surylgh d fhqwudo <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru wkh wuxh ydoxh1 Lq dgglwlrq/
fdofxodwh judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv iru |rxu srsxodwlrq prgho1
51 4: eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq dq h{sorudwlrq duhd ri wkh Phuhqvn| Uhhi1 Ydoxhv kdyh
ehhq ghwhuplqhg iru wrwdo SJP lq judpv shu wrqqh1 Wkhvh ydoxhv duh olvwhg ehorz1
61 Wkh wdeoh ehorz vkrzv wkh wklfnqhvv ri uhhi lq fhqwlphwuhv iru vdpsohv wdnhq zlwklq d
srwhqwldo plqlqj duhd lq wkh Exvkyhog Sodwlqxp plqhudolvdwlrq1 Hvwlpdwhv ri wklfnqhvv
duh uhtxluhg iru sodqqlqj sxusrvhv dqg wrqqdjh fdofxodwlrqv1
81 Wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv zhuh wdnhq iurp d sodqqhg vwrslqj duhd zlwklq d Zlwv w|sh jrog
plqh1 Wkh jrog judghv +jp2w, duh qhhghg iru sodqqlqj sxusrvhv1
55135 6418< 3168 71<9 4518:
9187 6153 771<9 <189 56154
44157 69163 7188 31<9
91 D vhw ri eodvwkroh vdpsohv kdyh ehhq wdnhq zlwklq dq rshq slw ehlqj plqhg iru fkurplxp1
6<15 7;16 6;13 7716
6519 8419 7<19 7317
691; 6<1; 7616 7<17
6415 6818 751< 6<1:
7<1< 7;18 6<14 7;17
:1 Dq h{sorudwlrq surmhfw lq d Zlwv w|sh jrog uhhi kdv |lhoghg 4; eruhkrohv1 Wkh dffxpx0
odwlrq +judghzlgwk, ydoxhv iru hdfk eruhkroh duh vkrzq ehorz lq fpj2w1
4<919 5917 57661< 444419
433715 98614 4<6419 46:415
:<713 8681; 4613 55951;
654813 <913 78713
87;14 94;1: 446<1:
;1 Wkh iroorzlqj dffxpxodwlrq ydoxhv zhuh rewdlqhg iurp eruhkroh lqwhuvhfwlrqv gxulqj wkh
surmhfw hydoxdwlrq vwdjh ri d qhz jrog plqh1
57: 5<5 7;6 58 4565
49: 9: 45;8 668 94
5334 679 48:< 786 64
87 4595 558 8;69 6
9; 5865 64 <48 ;44
959 5;4
<1 Wkh iroorzlqj frsshu judghv frph iurp d surmhfw lq Fhqwudo Diulfd1
4176 51:5 5137 51;9 418;
51:8 41;8 518; 6136 6168
51<7 51;: 6136 5146 613;
5158 5157 519; 51:8 6165
5186 5133 4193 616; 519;
51:6 41<4 517; 41<3 51<9
441 Wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv zhuh wdnhq iurp idfhv lq d w|slfdo Zlwv uhhi1 Phdvxuhphqwv duh
dffxpxodwlrq +judghzlgwk,1
451 D vhw ri eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq d ohdvh duhd lq wkh Hydqghu uhjlrq ri wkh Zlwv
edvlq1 Dffxpxodwlrq ydoxhv kdyh ehhq fdofxodwhg iru hdfk eruhkroh dqg duh h{suhvvhg lq
fhqwlphwuh judpv shu wrqqh +fpj2w,1
461 Wkh uhhi zlgwk lq d sduwlfxodu Zlwv plqh lv nqrzq wr eh h{wuhpho| yduldeoh1 D vhw ri
vdpsohv kdyh ehhq wdnhq dw duelwudu| orfdwlrqv1 Phdvxuhphqwv duh jlyhq lq fhqwlphwuhv1
471 Wkh iroorzlqj dffxpxodwlrq ydoxhv zhuh rewdlqhg iurp eruhkroh lqwhuvhfwlrqv gxulqj wkh
surmhfw hydoxdwlrq vwdjh ri d qhz jrog plqh1
s E} f
[
s E} '
}
Wkh uvw frqglwlrq deryh lpsolhv wkdw doo suredelolwlhv kdyh wr eh qrq0qhjdwlyh1 Wkh vhfrqg
frqglwlrq uhtxluhv wkdw wkh vxp ri wkh suredelolwlhv ryhu doo srvvleoh ydoxhv ri wkh udqgrp
yduldeoh htxdov 41 Iurp wkhvh wzr frqglwlrqv lw vkrxog eh idluo| reylrxv wkdw wkh wklug frq0
glwlrq ehorz qdwxudoo| iroorzv iurp wkh wzr deryh1 Wklv pdnhv jrrg lqwxlwlyh vhqvh vlqfh doo
suredelolwlhv pxvw idoo lq wkh udqjh iurp 3 wr 41
s E}
Wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri wkh udqgrp yduldeoh lv wkh phdq +ru dyhudjh, ri wkh glvfuhwh srsxodwlrq
dqg lv riwhq uhsuhvhqwhg e| wkh Juhhn ohwwhu > ru wkh qrwdwlrq .E}1 Wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri d
glvfuhwh udqgrp yduldeoh pd| eh fdofxodwhg dv jlyhq ehorz1
[
.E} ' > ' }sE}
}
Vxssrvh 53 fruhv duh wr eh wdnhq iurp d srwhqwldo jrog plqlqj duhd dqg hdfk fruh kdv d
suredelolw| ri vxffhvv ri R ' f1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw h{dfwo| 5 ri wkh 53 vdpsohv duh
irxqg wr eh vxffhvvhvB Xvlqj wkh deryh irupxod/ zh fdq fdofxodwh wklv dv vhhq ehorz1
2f 2 2f!2 2f-
EC ' 2 ' Eff E ff ' Eff2 EfbfH ' f2HD2
2 2-H-
Shukdsv d pruh uhohydqw txhvwlrq pljkw eh zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw dw ohdvw 5 vdpsohv duh
vxffhvvixo1 Lq wklv fdvh zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq
EC 2 ' EC ' 2 n EC ' n n EC ' 2f
Hyhq zlwk wulfnv olnh deryh/ wkh frpsxwdwlrq ri elqrpldo suredelolwlhv fdq riwhq eh wlph
frqvxplqj wr gr pdqxdoo|1 Iruwxqdwho| prghuq vsuhdgvkhhwv kdyh wkh fdsdelolw| wr fdofxodwh
pdq| ghvluhg vwdwlvwlfdo fdofxodwlrqv gluhfwo|1
Wkh judskv 814/ 815 dqg 816 vkrz ydulrxv elqrpldo glvwulexwlrqv iru ? ' D dqg wkuhh gli0
ihuhqw ydoxhv ri wkh suredelolw| ri vxffhvv R1 Judskv vxfk dv wkhvh fdq eh hdvlo| jhqhudwhg
zlwk vsuhdgvkhhwv1 Dv wkh suredelolw| ri vxffhvv R lqfuhdvhv/ wkh suredelolw| ri wkh qxpehu ri
vxffhvvhv rewdlqhg/ Cc dovr lqfuhdvhv1
Hdfk lqglylgxdo vdpsoh lq wkh ? vdpsohv iroorzv wkh Ehuqrxool glvwulexwlrq +zklfk lv htxlydohqw
wr wkh Elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq zlwk ? ' ,1 Lq wkh Ehuqrxool/ rqo| wzr srvvleoh rxwfrphv h{lvw
iru C +3 ru 4,1 oEC ' ru sE lv wkh suredelolw| ri vxffhvv R1 Zlwk rqo| wzr srvvleoh
rxwfrphv/ lw lv hdvlo| vhhq wkdw wkh fdvh ri qr vxffhvvhv
Iurp wkh jhqhudo irupxod iru wkh phdq jlyhq hduolhu wkh h{shfwhg ru phdq ydoxh lv
[
>' }sE} ' f E R n R ' R
}
iru hdfk Ehuqrxool vdpsoh1 Xvlqj wkh jhqhudo yduldqfh irupxod jlyhq hduolhu lw lv vkrzq ehorz
wkdw wkh yduldqfh ri wkh Ehuqrxool glvwulexwlrq lv RE R1
[
j2 ' E} >2 s E} ' Ef R2 E R n E R2R ' dR2 n RE RoE R ' RE R
}'fc
Vlqfh wkh elqrpldo vdpsoh lv edvhg rq ? lqghshqghqw Ehuqrxool rxwfrphv iCc C2c c C? j/
wkhq xvlqj edvlf vwdwlvwlfdo surfhgxuhv zh rewdlq wkh iroorzlqj iru wkh phdq dqg yduldqfh ri
wkh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq1 Nhhs lq plqg wkdw C ehorz uhsuhvhqwv wkh vxp ri doo wkh vxffhvvhv
lq wkh ? rxwfrphv1
Wkh deryh kdv dvvxphg wkdw wkh Elqrpldo sdudphwhu R wr eh nqrzq1 Li lw lv qrw nqrzq/ lw
fdq eh hvwlpdwhg iurp wkh dydlodeoh gdwd1 Wkh hvwlpdwh iroorzv zkhuh wkh R9 lpsolhv wkdw wklv
Wkh uhohydqw %k*2 lv vhohfwhg iurp d vwdqgdug qrupdo wdeoh vxfk wkdw wkhuh lv dq k*2 suredelolw|
ri d vwdqgdug qrupdo h{fhhglqj %k*21 Iru d wzr0vlghg <8( frqghqfh lqwhuydo/ k ' ffD/
k*2 ' ff2Dc dqg %k*2 ' bS1 Qrwh wkdw wkh frqghqfh ohyho dqg k vxp wr 4 +' bDI n ffD '
fbD n ffD,1 D <8( frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru R edvhg rq 69 vxffhvvhv rxw ri ? ' ff wuldov lv
jlyhq ehorz1
s
f S Ef S fSe*ff ' Ef 2c fefH
Wkh qdph elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq frphv iurp wkh idfw wkdw wkh ydoxhv ri KE}( ?c R iru
} ' fc c 2c c ? duh wkh vxffhvvlyh whupv ri wkh elqrpldo h{sdqvlrq ri dE R n Ro} 1
Wkh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq zdv ghulyhg e| Mdphv Ehuqrxool lq 4:46 dqg lv rqh ri wkh
roghvw vwdwlvwlfdo glvwulexwlrqv wr kdyh ehhq vwxglhg1 Elqrpldo frh!flhqwv zhuh vwxglhg
dw dq hduolhu gdwh e| Sdvfdo1
hd} ' & n o ?& R
' iru & ' fc c c ?
hd} ' &o & n E R
Sud} ' &o lqfuhdvhv wr d pd{lpxp ydoxh dw wkh lqwhjhu & vdwlvi|lqj
Li E? n R lv dq lqwhjhu/ wkh pd{lpxp ydoxh rffxuv dw erwk & ' E? n R dqg
& ' E? n R1
Doo zh qhhg wr gr lv pxowlso| wklv e| wkh suredelolw| ri d vxffhvv +R, rq wkh }| vdpsoh/ dqg
zh kdyh wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq ehorz1
9 } &
K E}( &c R ' R E R}!& c } ' &c & n c & n 2c
&
Dq lpsruwdqw qrwdwlrq lwhp pxvw eh srlqwhg rxw iru wklv vhfwlrq ri wkh errn1 Suhylrxvo| wkh
9 qrwdwlrq zdv xvhg iru hvwlpdwhv ri sdudphwhuv1 Krzhyhu/ lq wklv vhfwlrq/ erwk wkh qhjdwlyh
elqrpldo ^K9 E}( &c R` dqg jhrphwulf ^}9E}( R` xvh wkh 9 qrwdwlrq wr glvwlqjxlvk wkh glvwulexwlrqv1
Wkxv wkh 9 xvhg iru wkhvh wzr glvwulexwlrqv grhv qrw lpso| dq hvwlpdwh1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ gr qrw
frqixvh wkh }9 iru wkh jhrphwulf glvwulexwlrq zlwk }1
Vxssrvh wkhuh lv d suredelolw| ri vxffhvv R @ 3158 wkdw d jlyhq vdpsoh zloo frqwdlq dq
hqfrxudjlqj dprxqw ri jrog1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh 6ug hqfrxudjlqj vdpsoh rffxuv
h{dfwo| rq wkh 43wk vdpsoh wdnhqB Dsso|lqj wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq wklv suredelolw|
lv vhhq ehorz1
9 f b-
K Ef( c f2D ' f2D Ef.D. ' f2D Ef.D. ' ff.D
2-.-
Iruwxqdwho| d qhz vhw ri wdeohv lv qrw qhhghg iru wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq ^K9E}( &c R`1
Xvlqj wkh iroorzlqj uhodwlrqvkls/ rqh pd| ghwhuplqh wkh ghvluhg suredelolw| iurp wkh elqrpldo
glvwulexwlrq ^KE}( &c R` wdeohv1
&
K9 E}( &c R ' KE}( &c R
}
Wkh phdq dqg yduldqfh ri wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq duh jlyhq ehorz1
& 2 &
> ' dqg j '
R R R
Wkh jhrphwulf glvwulexwlrq lv d vshfldo fdvh ri wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo zlwk & ' 1 Lq wklv fdvh zh
duh dvnlqj zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| ri qglqj wkh uvw vxffhvv rq d jlyhq wuldo ru vdpsoh1 Nhhs lq
plqg wkdw vxffhvv lv ghqhg wr eh rqh ri wkh wzr srvvleoh rxwfrphv iurp hdfk elqdu| vdpsoh1
Vxssrvh wkhuh lv d 43( suredelolw| ri qglqj d ghwhfwdeoh olplw ri d jlyhq srooxwdqw iurp d
eruhkroh lq d hog1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh uvw vdpsoh vkrzlqj frqwdplqdwlrq rffxuv
rq wkh 7| eruhkrohB Dsso|lqj wkh jhrphwulf glvwulexwlrq zlwk } ' e/ zh jhw wkh iroorzlqj=
Ohiw lv d judsk ri wkh jhrphwulf glvwulexwlrq iru glhuhqw suredelolwlhv ri vxffhvv1 Wklv lv d
vshfldo fdvh ri wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo lq zklfk wkh wuldo qxpehu ri wkh uvw vxffhvv +l1h1/ & ' ,
lv ri lqwhuhvw1
Wkh qdph qhjdwlyh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq frphv iurp wkh idfw wkdw K9E}( &c R ydoxhv
iru } ' &c & n c & n 2/ 111 duh vxffhvvlyh whupv ri wkh h{sdqvlrq ri wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo
!&
!R
h{suhvvlrq R R 1
Wkh jhrphwulf glvwulexwlrq lv ghulyhg ehorz e| vhwwlqj & ' lq wkh qhjdwlyh elqrpldo
glvwulexwlrq1
9 }
K E}( & ' c R ' R E R}! ' ERE R}! ' RE R}! ' } 9E}( R
e!bb}
RE}( b ' c } ' fc c 2c
}-
Lq wklv htxdwlrq/ } lv wkh frxqw zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq +h1j1/ gldprqgv,1 Wkh phdq b fdq fkdqjh
dv wkh edvlv ri vxssruw fkdqjhv1 Li wkh dyhudjh qxpehu ri gldprqgv shu fxelf phwhu iroorzv d
Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq zlwk d phdq ri 8 wkhq zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| ri 6 gldprqgv lq d jlyhq
fxelf phwhuB Vxevwlwxwlqj } @ 6 dqg b @ 8 lqwr wkh Srlvvrq suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq jlyhv wkh
uhvxow vkrzq ehorz1
e!D D
RE ( D ' ' fef
-
Li rqh zdv lqwhuhvwhg lq wkh qxpehu ri gldprqgv iru d 53 fxelf phwhu vdpsoh/ wkhq b kdv wr
eh vhw wr 853 @ 433 vlqfh wkh phdq qxpehu ri gldprqgv iru d 53 fxelf phwhu vdpsoh zrxog
eh wzhqw| wlphv wkh phdq iru d rqh fxelf phwhu vdpsoh1
Ehorz duh vrph vdpsoh Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq sorwv iru glhuhqw ydoxhv ri b1 Lw lv hdv| wr vhh
wkdw dv b lqfuhdvhv/ wkh suredelolw| ri jhwwlqj d odujhu qxpehu ri frxqwv +}, jrhv xs1
Wkh Srlvvrq surylghv dq h{fhoohqw dssur{lpdwlrq iru wkh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq iru odujh ?
dqg vpdoo R1 Iru wklv dssur{lpdwlrq b lv vhw htxdo wr wkh surgxfw ri ? dqg R/ l1h1/ b ' ?R1
Zlwk prghuq vsuhdgvkhhwv wklv dssur{lpdwlrq qrw dv qhfhvvdu| dv lq wkh sdvw> krzhyhu/ li doo
rqh kdv lv d vhw ri vwdwlvwlfdo wdeohv/ wkhq wklv dssur{lpdwlrq fdq eh xvhixo1
Wkh phdqs> dqg yduldqfh j2 ri wkh Srlvvrq duh erwk htxdo wr b1 Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
j lv htxdo wr b1 Wklv fdq eh xvhg wr ghyhors d odujh vdpsoh frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru wkh phdq
b ri wkh Srlvvrq edvhg rq vdpsoh gdwd1 Dq dssur{lpdwh 433+ k,( frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru
b lv fuhdwhg dv iroorzv=
u
b9
b9 %k*2
?
S
?
zkhuh b9 '
? } lv dq hvwlpdwh ri b1 Wkh } duh wkh lqglylgxdo vdpsoh frxqwv1
'
Uxpruv sdvvhg grzq wkurxjk wkh djhv vdlg wkdw Srlvvrq sxeolvkhg wkh ghulydwlrq ri wklv
glvwulexwlrq lq 4;6:/ wr prgho wkh qxpehu ri vroglhuv nlfnhg wr ghdwk e| pxohv lq wkh
zduv rq wkh Uxvvldq iurqw1 Zkloh Srlvvrq glg sxeolvk wkh ghulydwlrq ri wklv glvwulexwlrq
lq 4;6:/ lw dsshduv wkdw Eruwnlhzlf} lq 4;<; sxeolvkhg dq duwlfoh dsso|lqj wkh Srlvvrq
glvwulexwlrq wr wkh qxpehu ri Suxvvldq Dup| Frus vroglhuv g|lqj iurp kruvh nlfnv shu
|hdu1 Eruwnlhzlf}*v gdwd pd| dovr eh irxqg lq Fodunh dqg Glvqh|/ sdjh 4;71 Li dq| ri
rxu uhdghuv nqrzv pruh derxw wklv/ sohdvh ohw xv nqrz1
hd} ' & n o b
'
hd} ' &o &n
Iurp wklv lw fdq eh vhhq wkdw Sud} ' &o lqfuhdvhv wr d pd{lpxp dw & ' b +wkhuh duh wzr
htxdo pd{lpxpv dw & ' b dqg & ' b li b lv dq lqwhjhu, dqg wkhuhdiwhu ghfuhdvhv1
Dv grfxphqwhg e| Vlfkho +4<:6, wklv hqfrpsdvvhv pdq| glvfuhwh glvwulexwlrqv dv vshfldo fdvhv
+h1j1/ Srlvvrq/ qhjdwlyh elqrpldo,1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ Vlfkho uhfrpphqgv wkh xvh ri ' 2 zklfk
uhvxowv lq wkh vlpsolhg pl{lqj glvwulexwlrq ehorz zlwk wkh fruuhvsrqglqj frpsrxqg Srlvvrq
E}1
u q s r
k w ! E k2 w
s Eb( ' ' i T k w b 2 i T b
2 2 Z w eb
u q s r Ekw*2}
2k
E} ' i T k w g}! Ekc iru } ' fc c 2c c dqg f w
Z }- 2
E} pd| eh uhsdudphwhul}hg iru hdvlhu hvwlpdwlrq e| vhwwlqj q ' kw*2 uhvxowlqj lq wkh
iroorzlqj1
u q s r q}
2k
E} ' i T k 2q*k g Ekc s Jo } ' fc c 2c c @?_ q : f
Z }- }! 2
Wkhuh duh wzr sdudphwhuv wr eh hvwlpdwhg iurp wkh revhuyhg gdwd1 Lw fdq eh k : f dqg
f w ru k : f dqg q : f1 Iru w ' f wkh glvwulexwlrq E} ehfrphv d Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq1
Wkh sdudphwhu q fkdudfwhul}hv wkh iuhtxhqflhv dw wkh vwduw ri wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Iru q wkh
glvwulexwlrq E} lv d uhyhuvh M0vkdshg fxuyh zkhuhdv iru q : d xqlprgdo glvwulexwlrq uhvxowv1
Xvlqj wkh uvw ri wkh wzr phwkrgv lq Vlfkho +4<:6,/ wkh revhuyhg sursruwlrq iru wkh eduuhq
Ef fdq dovr eh frpsxwhg dv wkh revhuyhg sursruwlrq ri eduuhq +} ' f, revhuydwlrqv/ l1h1/
qxpehu ri wkh ? revhuydwlrqv zlwk } ' f glylghg e| ?1
Wdeoh 814+e, surylghv vlplodu fdofxodwlrqv iru dq dvvxphg Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh rqo| Srlv0
vrq sdudphwhu lv b zklfk htxdov wkh }7 fdofxodwlrq jlyhq hduolhu dqg uhvxowv lq b @ 415;941 Zh
fdofxodwh wkh h{shfwhg qxpehu ri revhuydwlrqv dvvxplqj wkh Srlvvrq wv wkh gdwd1 Wkh qh{w
froxpq lv mxvw wkh suredelolw| ri jhwwlqj wkh } ydoxh iru wkh jlyhq urz wlphv wkh wrwdo qxpehu
ri revhuydwlrqv/ zklfk lv 6931 Wkh irxuwk froxpq froodsvhv wkh h{shfwhg iuhtxhqfhv iru } D
lqwr wkh ydoxh 619:;< vr wkdw doo fhoov xvhg lq wkh 2 dqdo|vlv kdyh h{shfwhg iuhtxhqflhv ri dw
ohdvw 61 Wkh qh{w froxpq froodsvhv wkh dfwxdo revhuydwlrqv wr pdwfk wkh h{shfwhg1 Wkh qdo
froxpq P frpsxwhv wkh lqglylgxdo frqwulexwlrqv wr wkh 2 dqg uhvxowv lq dq ryhudoo 2 ydoxh ri
6<6164 zlwk d yhu| vpdoo R0ydoxh ri :1:9f!He lqglfdwlqj wkdw wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv dvvxpswlrq
wkdw d Srlvvrq dghtxdwho| wv wklv gdwd vhw vkrxog eh uhmhfwhg1 Ylvxdoo| wklv fdq eh uhdglo|
vhhq lq Iljxuhv 819 dqg 81:1 Wkh Vlfkho frpsdulvrq lv ylvxdoo| forvh wr wkh revhuyhg frxqwv
zkloh wkh vwdqgdug Srlvvrq lv qrw1
Lq shuiruplqj erwk wkh Vlfkho*v frpsrxqg Srlvvrq dqg wkh vwdqgdug Srlvvrq jrrgqhvv ri
w whvwv/ erwk wkh h{shfwhg dqg revhuyhg frxqwv zhuh riwhq froodsvhg vr wkdw wkh h{shfwhg
iuhtxhqf| iru wkh froodsvhg ru frqvrolgdwhg fhoov lv dw ohdvw 61 Dv dq h{dpsoh/ wkh urz fruuh0
vsrqglqj wr } ' 2S xqghu wkh vwdqgdug Srlvvrq kdv d uhylvhg h{shfwhg ydoxh ri 619:;< dqg
Wkxv iru wklv gdwd vhw/ wkh Vlfkho glvwulexwlrq forvho| pdwfkhv wkh revhuyhg gdwd zkloh wkh vwdq0
gdug Srlvvrq grhv qrw surylgh dq dghtxdwh dssur{lpdwlrq wr wkh gdwd1 Wkh Vlfkho glvwulexwlrq
kdv wkh srvvlelolw| ri kdylqj d orqj wdlo xqolnh frpprq glvfuhwh glvwulexwlrqv1 Wklv doorzv lw
wr w gdwd vhwv wkdw suhylrxvo| frxog qrw eh zhoo uhsuhvhqwhg e| xvxdo glvfuhwh glvwulexwlrqv1
Lq Wdeoh 816/ wkh R0ydoxh ri 313333 vkrzv wkdw Vlfkho*v grhv qrw dghtxdwho| w wklv gdwd1 Wkh R0
ydoxh iru wkh Pl{hg Srlvvrq lv 315;4; lqglfdwlqj d uhdvrqdeoh w1 Iljxuhv 8145 dqg 8146 ixuwkhu
vxssruw wkh vwdwlvwlfv1 Lq wkh pl{hg Srlvvrq dqdo|vlv/ wkh gdwd zdv glylghg lqwr wzr sduwv vr
wkdw wkh b ydoxhv frxog eh ghwhuplqhg vhsdudwho| iru hdfk Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq k|srwkhvl}hg1
Wkh gdwd iru } @ 3 wr 43 zdv xvhg iru wkh uvw Srlvvrq w uhvxowlqj lq b ' 2SD1 Iru wkh
gdwd iru } / b2 ' 2D H1 Vlqfh 433 ri wkh 533 revhuydwlrqv kdg } ydoxhv ri 43 ru ohvv/ d
zhljkwlqj ri 3183 lv dssolhg wr hdfk glvwulexwlrq lq wkh froxpq Uhylvhg Pl{wxuh Srlvvrq1 Lq
wklv sduwlfxodu fdvh wklv lv d frpsrxqg Srlvvrq +lq wkh jhqhudo vhqvh/ qrw wr eh frqixvhg zlwk
Vlfkho*v zrun, zlwk d glvfuhwh pl{lqj +ru zhljkwlqj, ixqfwlrq dvvljqlqj 3183 wr hdfk Srlvvrq
glvwulexwlrq1
} Kr } Kr E} H{s Vlfkho Uhy1 H{s Uhy1 Rev Vlfkho 2
3 < 3 313783 <13333 <13333 < 31333
4 49 49 313:;8 4819<3< 4819<3< 49 31339
5 4< 6; 313;:: 4:18733 4:18733 4< 31455
6 5: ;4 313;5< 4918;64 4918;64 5: 91876
7 49 97 313:65 471979< 471979< 49 31458
8 45 93 313964 4519477 4519477 45 31363
9 4 9 313873 431:<;7 431:<;7 4 ;1;<4
: 3 3 313796 <15994 <15994 3 <1599
; 3 3 313733 :1<<;6 :1<<;6 3 :1<<;
< 3 3 31367; 91<866 91<866 3 91<86
43 3 3 313637 913;<3 913;<3 3 913;<
44 3 3 31359; 8169<7 8169<7 3 8169<
45 3 3 31356; 71:98: 71:98: 3 71:99
46 3 3 313546 715885 715885 3 71588
47 3 3 3134<4 61;534 61;534 3 61;53
48 3 3 3134:5 617798 617798 3 61779
49 4 49 313489 614567 614567 4 41777
4: 8 ;8 313475 51;756
4; 4 4; 313463 518<94 8176;7 9 3138;
4< 6 8: 31344< 516:<7
53 43 533 31343< 514;:: 7189:4 46 4818:4
54 8 438 313434 5134:5
55 : 487 3133<6 41;983 61;;55 45 491<:8
56 : 494 3133;9 41:5;8
57 9 477 3133;3 419389 616674 46 5;1355
58 : 4:8 3133:8 417<7:
59 8 463 3133:3 416<75
5: < 576 313398 41635; 714<4: 54 9:1733
5; < 585 313394 4154<9
5< 43 5<3 31338: 414768
63 6 <3 313387 413:6: 61769: 55 433159;
64 5 95 313383 4133<:
65 4 65 31337; 31<83;
66 8 498 313378 31;<97
67 3 3 313375 31;795 61:364 9 41758
68 4 68 313373 31:<<:
69 3 3 31336; 31:898
} Kr } Kr E} H{s Vlfkho Uhy1 H{s Uhy1 Rev Vlfkho 2
6: 3 3 313369 31:498
6; 4 6; 313367 319:<5
6< 3 3 313365 319777 618<95 5 31:3<
73 3 3 313364 319453
74 4 74 31335< 318;49
75 3 3 31335; 318866
76 3 3 313359 31859:
77 3 3 313358 31834;
78 4 78 313989 4614478 481;;<; 5 451475
533 5;36 4 533 533 2 ' 5<;1;76
R' 313333
}7 ' 471348 _s ' 5845
9Ef 31378
k' 618749:
q' 41:7676
w' 31<;786
diwhu hvw1 Ef ' 31378
E ' 313:;78
Wkh fxpxodwlyh glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq 8 Eb fdq eh frqwlqxrxv ru glvfuhwh1 Wkh suredelolw|
ghqvlw| ixqfwlrq +li frqwlqxrxv, ru suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq +li glvfuhwh, lv sEb1 Lq
Vlfkho*v frpsrxqg Srlvvrq fryhuhg hduolhu/ s Eb zdv d frqwlqxrxv ixqfwlrq1 Dq lqwhuhvwlqj
glvfuhwh dssolfdwlrq lv zkhq 8 Eb lv d glvfuhwh vwhs ixqfwlrq uhsuhvhqwlqj wzr ru pruh srsxod0
wlrqv zlwk vshflhg suredelolwlhv +vxfk dv wkh odvw h{dpsoh lq wkh deryh vhfwlrq,1 Wklv lv wkh
glvfuhwh dqdorj ri wkh pl{hg glvwulexwlrqv fryhuhg lq wkh errn iru qrupdo dqg orjqrupdo glv0
wulexwlrqv1 Iru h{dpsoh wkh| pd| eh 6 glvfuhwh srsxodwlrqv zlwk suredelolwlhv Rc R2c R hdfk
zlwk glhulqj phdqv ru h{shfwhg ydoxhv1 Wklv lv dovr vrphwlphv fdoohg d pl{hg Srlvvrq surfhvv
lq wkh vwdwlvwlfdo olwhudwxuh1 Wklv w|sh ri pl{hg glvfuhwh glvwulexwlrq pd| eh dssolfdeoh zkhq
wkhuh duh pxowlsoh vrxufhv ri wkh glvfuhwh yduldeoh ri lqwhuhvw1 Lq nlpehuolwh gldprqg plqlqj
wkhuh pd| kdyh ehhq pxowlsoh nlpehuolwh huxswlrqv ru vxevhtxhqw vhglphqwrorjlfdo dfwlrq wkdw
lpsdfwhg wkh nlpehuolwh lqvlgh wkh fudwhu wkdw zrxog uhvxow lq pl{hg srsxodwlrqv ^Wkxuvwrq/
Vlfkho uhsruwv wkdw w 31<: iru wkh pdulqh ghsrvlwv kh kdv vwxglhg lq Vrxwk Diulfd1
51 D eudqg qhz vrlo whvwlqj ghylfh zloo eh pdunhwhg e| FFWhfkvwhu wkdw surplvhv txlfnhu
dqg pruh dffxudwh vrlo dqdo|vlv dorqj exulhg rlo dqg jdv slsholqhv1 Lw zrxog whvw slsh
wr vrlo srwhqwldo/ vrlo sK/ prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ dqg kdyh d exlow lq JSV wr uhfrug wkh
orfdwlrq ri wkh gdwd froohfwlrq1 Wklv frxsohg zlwk lq0olqh lqvshfwlrqv e| sljjlqj ghylfhv
uxq wkurxjk wkh slsholqhv rq d shulrglf edvlv surplvhv wr lpsuryh wkh lqwhjulw| ri wkh
slsholqh1 Mrkqqlh Ehdyh/ FFWhfkvwhu vdohv uhs/ kdv hvwlpdwhg d 73( vxffhvv udwh rq
vdohv li kh fdq glvsod| wkh surgxfw wr wkh khdg hog hqjlqhhu iru d slsholqh1 Lq dqvzhulqj
wkh sureohpv ehorz |rx pxvw uvw ghwhuplqh wkh dssursuldwh vwdwlvwlfdo glvwulexwlrq1
Dvvxph wkdw wkh Ehdyh lv fruuhfw dqg wkdw wkh 73( udwh ri vxffhvv vwd|v frqvwdqw ryhu
wlph1
d, Ghwhuplqh wkh suredelolw| wkdw Mrkqqlh zloo kdyh klv uvw vdoh rq wkh irxuwk vdohv
slwfk kh jlyhv wr khdg hog hqjlqhhuv1
e, Li Pu1 Ehdyh pdnhv 43 vdohv slwfkhv ri wklv qhz g|qdplf surgxfw/ zkdw lv wkh
suredelolw| ri h{dfwo| 9 vdohvB
D gl!fxow sduw ri vroylqj sureohpv vxfk dv wklv lv wr ghwhuplqh wkh dssursuldwh vwdwlvwlfdo
glvwulexwlrq1 Iru sduw d/ wklv lv d jhrphwulf glvwulexwlrq vlqfh lw dvnv iru wkh suredelolw|
ri rewdlqlqj wkh uvw vxffhvv rq d jlyhq wuldo1 Lq wkh irupxod ehorz/ ohw } ' e/ R ' fef
wr jhw wkh uhvxow lqglfdwhg ehorz1
}9E}( R ' RE R}! c } ' c 2c c
}9 Ee( ef ' fefE fefe! ' ffHSe
Iru sduw e/ d elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq lv dssursuldwh vlqfh wkh rughu ri wkh 9 vxffhvvixo vdohv
lq wkh 43 dwwhpswv lv qrw lpsruwdqw1 Ohw } ' S/ ? ' f/ dqg R ' fef wr jhw wkh vroxwlrq
hlwkhu e| gluhfwo| vroylqj wkh irupxod ehorz ru e| orrnlqj lw xs lq wkh elqrpldo wdeoh lq
wkh dsshqgl{1
? }
KE}( ?c R ' R E R?!} c } ' fc c 2c c ?
}
f
KES( fc fef ' fefSE feff!S ' fD
S
Sduw f dovr lqyroyhv wkh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq1 Lq wklv fdvh zh qhhg wr vxp wkh suredelo0
lwlhv ri } ' 6/ 7/ dqg 8 xvlqj ? ' D dqg R ' fef1 Orrnlqj wkhvh xs lq wkh dsshqgl{/ zh
qg
E} ' E} ' n E} ' e n E} ' D ' f2 fe n ff.SH n fff2 ' f .e
61 Svhxgr0Vxuyh|/ Lqf1 kdv mxvw uhohdvhg lwv odwhvw qglqjv wkdw ;3( ri pdoh plqlqj hqjl0
qhhuv ryhu wkh djh ri 56 wkdw jroi zloo qrw vkrrw sdu lq d jlyhq urxqg1 \rxu frpsdq|/
Jrogexvwhuv/ kdv ehhq fkdoohqjhg e| GldprqgGxvw pdqdjhphqw wr whvw wkh juhhqv dw
lwv qhz frusrudwh frxuvh lq wkh rxwvnluwv ri Vwhoohqervfk1 Li dw ohdvw 5 ri |rxu wrs wkuhh
fudfn pdqdjhphqw whdp fdq vkrrw sdu/ GldprqgGxvw kdv surplvhg Jrogexvwhuv iuhh
|hdu orqj ehyhudjhv dw dq| ri wkh zlqhulhv zlwklq 73 np ri Vwhoohqervfk1 Dvvxplqj wklv
pdqdjhphqw whdp frqvlvwv ri doo pdohv dw ohdvw 56 |hduv rog/ zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| ri
zlqqlqj wklv judflrxv rhuB Li d pdwh ri |rxuv rhuhg |rx 83 wr 4 rggv rq wklv iru '43/
zrxog wklv eh zruwk frqvlghulqjB
Vroxwlrq= Wklv lv d elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq sureohp zlwk } ' 5 dqg 6/ ? ' / dqg R ' f2f
+vxffhvv khuh lv vkrrwlqj sdu,1 Xvlqj wkh dsshqgl{ ru pdqxdoo| vroylqj wklv uhvxowv lq
E} 2 ' E} ' 2 n E} ' ' ffbSf n fffHf ' ffe
Vlqfh wkh suredelolw| ri Jrogexvwhuv zlqqlqj wkh fkdoohqjh lv 4317( wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq
rq d '43 ehw zlwk 83 wr 4 rggv
' mf E ffe n Df mfEffe ' me fe
Wkxv lw zrxog eh zruwk wdnlqj wkh ehw1
d, Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh vhfrqg jdph kh sod|v lq lv wkh wklug jdph ri wkh
vhdvrqB
e, Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw kh zloo sod| lq qr pruh wkdq 5 jdphv rxw ri wkh uvw
vhyhq ri wkh vhdvrqB
Sduw e uhtxluhv wkh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq xvlqj } ' f/ 4/ dqg 5 zlwk ? ' . dqg R ' f1
Xvlqj wkh wdeoh lq wkh dsshqgl{/ dgg wkh suredelolwlhv ri 3 jdphv/ 4 jdph/ dqg 5 jdphv
wrjhwkhu/ l1h1/
E& jdphv 2 ' Ef n E n E2 ' ffH2e n f2e. n f .. ' fSe.2
81 Wkh qxpehu ri frqwdplqdqw vsloov rq wkh zhvw frdvw ri Fkloh lv 31; shu |hdu1
Wklv lv prghoohg zlwk d Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq zlwk b ' fH Iru sduw d/
E} : 2 ' E} 2
' i Ef n E n E2j
' e!fHE n fH n fH2*2
' ffe.e
Iru sduw e/
91 Dw wkh rlo shwurohxp kdss| krxu rq d w|slfdo Iulgd| qljkw/ wkh dyhudjh qxpehu ri
fxvwrphuv duulylqj dw wkh edu iru d uhiuhvklqj ehyhudjh rughu lv 415 shu plqxwh1
:1 Klvwrulfdo uhfrugv vkrz wkdw 41;( ri doo qhz plqlqj whfkqlfldqv txlw wkhlu mrev ehiruh
6 prqwkv duh frpsohwhg1 Xvlqj d Srlvvrq dssur{lpdwlrq wr wkh elqrpldo glvwulexwlrq/
zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw 6 ru ohvv plqlqj whfkqlfldqv ri wkh qh{w 533 kluhg txlw zlwklq
6 prqwkvB
Iru wkh Srlvvrq dssur{lpdwlrq/
81;1 H{huflvhv
41 Wkh Zrrodjrqj Erzohuv kdyh d uhfrug ri zlqqlqj 88( ri wkhlu fulfnhw pdwfkhv1 Zkdw
lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh| zloo zlq prvw ri wkh qh{w : jdphvB
61 Xvlqj d Srlvvrq dssur{lpdwlrq wr wkh elqrpldo/ ghwhuplqh wkh suredelolw| wkdw ohvv wkdq
6 shrsoh ri wkh 7333 lq GldprqgvU/ Lqf1 zloo frph wr zrun wrpruurz zlwk d khdgdfkh1
Wkh dyhudjh lv rqh khdgdfkh iru hyhu| ;33 hpsor|hhv1
71 SodwlqxpSoxv kdv dfflghqwv rq dq dyhudjh ri rqfh shu zhhn1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| ri
qr dfflghqwv lq wkh qh{w irxu zhhnvB
81 Wr pdlqwdlq klv hqylurqphqwdo fhuwlfdwlrq/ Eloo Vwxglrxv pxvw vfruh dw ohdvw 83( rq
dq hljkw txhvwlrq pxowlsoh fkrlfh h{dp1 Hdfk txhvwlrq kdv 6 srvvleoh dqvzhuv1 EV kdv
ghflghg wr xvh klv oxfn| glh wr ghwhuplqh wkh dqvzhu1 Li kh uroov 4 ru 5/ kh zloo fkrrvh
wkh uvw srvvleoh dqvzhu1 Li Eloo uroov d 6 ru 7/ kh zloo vhohfw wkh vhfrqg srvvleoh dqvzhu1
Ilqdoo| li Pu1 Vwxglrxv jhwv d 8 ru 9 rq wkh glh/ kh zloo vhohfw wkh wklug srvvleoh dqvzhu1
Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| ri Eloo sdvvlqj wkh h{dp zlwk klv wuxvwhg oxfn| glhB
91 Plqlqj vdihw| hqjlqhhuv hvwlpdwh wkdw 53( ri doo dfflghqwv duh gxh wr idwljxh1 Zkdw lv
wkh suredelolw| wkdw dw ohdvw 6 ri wkh qh{w 8 dfflghqwv duh gxh wr idwljxhB
:1 Sdvw h{shulhqfh kdv vkrzq wkdw 73( ri doo DjulExfnv hpsor|hhv ehfrph krvwloh diwhu
dwwhqglqj 6 ru pruh phhwlqjv shu gd|1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw h{dfwo| 9 ri wkh
qh{w 48 hpsor|hhv wkdw dwwhqg dw ohdvw 6 phhwlqjv lq d gd| zloo ehfrph krvwlohB
<1 KhooEhqw Pdqxidfwxuhuv fodlpv wkdw dw prvw 8( ri wkhlu EruhkrohVxsuhphv uhtxluh vhu0
ylfh ehiruh 4333 krxuv ri rshudwlrq1 \rxu TD pdqdjhu whvwhg 53 ri wkhvh ghylfhv dqg
irxqg wkdw 6 qhhghg vhuylfh sulru wr 4333 krxuv1 Krz gr |rx ihho derxw KhooEhqw*v
fodlpvB
431 FrlqWrvv Zlogfdwwhuv fodlp d 83( vxffhvv udwh1 Dvvxplqj wklv wr eh wuxh/ qg wkh
suredelolwlhv ri FrlqWrvv zrunlqj rq |rxu odqg zlwk wkh iroorzlqj uhvxowv=
441 Vdoo| Vwdwlvwlfv fodlpv wkdw vkh lv rqo| r wdujhw 8( ri wkh wlph rq jhwwlqj wkh fuxgh rlo
sulfhv zlwk d uhdvrqdeoh udqjh1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw Vdoo| lv r wdujhw iru wkh
vhfrqg wlph rq khu iwhhqwk iruhfdvw xvlqj
451 Fdoleudwlrq ri wkh QrqVwdwlrqdu|Sxps lv vxffhvvixo 63( ri wkh wlph1 Zkdw lv wkh
suredelolw| wkdw vxffhvvixo fdoleudwlrq zloo qrw rffxu xqwlo wkh vl{wk wu|B
461 XqnqrzqVh{Vsrxvh fodlpv wkdw wkh| fdq eh vfuhdphg dw e| wkhlu vsrxvh dqg wkhq
lpphgldwho| wrog nlqg zrugv dqg kdyh rqo| d 31334 suredelolw| ri jhwwlqj xsvhw1 Iulhqgv
dqg fr0zrunhuv kdyh vrog wlfnhwv iru d wruwxuh whvw lq zklfk wklv lqglylgxdo zloo eh
frqwlqxrxvo| h{srvhg wr wklv rq0r f|foh1 Ehwwlqj lv kljk rq erwk vlghv dv wr zkhwkhu wkh
XqnqrzqVh{Vsrxvh zloo orvh wkhlu surihvvhg frro dqg ehfrph xsvhw1 Iru wkh vfkhgxohg 6
krxu whvw ;33 rq0r f|fohv zloo eh shuiruphg1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wklv lqglylgxdo
zloo uhpdlq xqghu frqwuro iru wkhvh ;33 f|fohvB Gr |rx wklqn wklv shuvrq lv kxpdqB
471 GulyhXsFrqvxpdeohv surxgo| glvsod|v rq wkhlu wuxfn wkdw wkh suredelolw| ri jhwwlqj
irrg srlvrqlqj iurp wkhlu irrg lv rqo| 313345 shu shuvrq1 Xvlqj hlwkhu wkh Srlvvrq
dssur{lpdwlrq wr wkh elqrpldo ru wkh elqrpldo gluhfwo| ghwhuplqh wkh suredelolw| wkdw
qr pruh wkdq wzr ri wkh qh{w 4/333 glqqhuv zloo jhw irrg srlvrqlqj iurp wklv qh irrg1
481 EduIo|Lqf kdv hvwlpdwhg wkdw 7( ri doo hqylurqphqwdo zrunhuv zloo eh lqyroyhg zlwk d
fdu dfflghqw lq dq| |hdu1 Ghwhuplqh wkh suredelolw| wkdw rxw ri 483 zrunhuv
d, Ilyh zloo eh lqyroyhg lq dw ohdvw rqh fdu dfflghqw lq wkh qh{w |hdu1
e, Qr pruh wkdw wkuhh zloo eh lqyroyhg lq dw ohdvw rqh fdu dfflghqw lq wkh frplqj |hdu1
4:1 Lq dq dfuh ri zrrghg odqg/ wkhuh lv dq dyhudjh ri 3158 jrog irxu0ohdi foryhuv1 Zkdw lv
wkh suredelolw| ri dw prvw 4 jrog irxu0ohdi foryhu lq 5 dfuhv ri zrrghg odqgB
4;1 D frqwdplqdqw whvw kdv d 4( idovh qhjdwlyh udwh1 Vxssrvh < vlwhv duh frqwdplqdwhg1
Ilqg suredelolwlhv ri wkh iroorzlqj=
4<1 Lq vrxwkzhvw OrzhuVoreryld ;8( ri wkh srsxodwlrq kdv Uk0srvlwlyh eorrg1 Iru d frxsoh
iurp wklv srsxodwlrq jhwwlqj pduulhg zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw erwk duh Uk0qhjdwlyh
zklfk zrxog pdnh doo rvsulqj Uk0qhjdwlyhB
531 D qhz deryh jurxqg sodwlqxp vql!qj ghylfh fodlpv d ;3( fruuhfw udwh1 Zkdw lv wkh
suredelolw| ri wkh iroorzlqj iru wkh qh{w 8 lqghshqghqw sodwlqxp whvwvB
541 Rq d volgh ri VshfldoSoxv zdwhu wkh qxpehu ri edfwhuld [[[ kdyh ehhq irxqg wr iroorz
d Srlvvrq glvwulexwlrq zlwk d phdq ri wzr1 Wkh hqylurqphqwdo jxlgholqhv vshfli| d
pd{lpxp shuplvvleoh frxqw ri yh1 Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw d vlqjoh vdpsoh ri
VshfldoSoxv zloo idlo wklv whvwB
551 H1 Frol rxweuhdnv kdyh ehhq d frqfhuq lq Ehh dqgld zlwk rxweuhdnv dw wkh udwh ri 518
shu 433/333 lq d |hdu wlph shulrg1
d, Zkdw lv wkh suredelolw| ri qr pruh wkdq 8 fdvhv shu 433/333 lq d vlqjoh |hduB
e, Dssur{lpdwho| <8( ri wkh |hduo| H1 frol frxqwv idoo zlwklq zkdw udqjhB
Pruh uljrurxvo|/ lq vwdwlvwlfdo whupv/ zkdw zh qhhg wr dvn lv zkhwkhu vrphwklqj zklfk zh
wklqn zh duh vhhlqj lq wkh gdwd uhdoo| dssolhv wr wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq1 Iru h{dpsoh/ vxssrvh
zh wdnh d vhw ri vdpsohv1 Wkhq/ iru vrph uhdvrq/ zh wdnh dqrwkhu vhw ri vdpsohv1 Xqohvv zh
wdnh h{dfwo| wkh vdph lqglylgxdov erwk wlphv/ wkh wzr vhwv zloo eh glhuhqw1 Wkh| zloo kdyh
glhuhqw phdqv/ glhuhqw vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv dqg glhuhqw klvwrjudpv1 Krz elj fdq wkrvh
glhuhqfhv jhw ehiruh zh ehjlq wr txhvwlrq wkhpB
K|srwkhvlv whvwlqj jlyhv xv d iudphzrun iru d ghflvlrq pdnlqj surfhvv zlwk vrph phdvxuh
ri krz pxfk ulvn zh wdnh zkhq zh pdnh wkh ghflvlrq/ Wkh edvlf vwuxfwxuh iru whvwlqj lv dv
iroorzv=
61 Ilqg zkdw glvwulexwlrq wklv vwdwlvwlf zrxog iroorz li wkh k|srwkhvlv lv wuxh1 Wdeohv duh
dydlodeoh wr khos xv zlwk pdq| frpprq k|srwkhvhv>
71 Ilqdoo| zh frpsduh rxu vwdwlvwlf wr wkh ydoxh lq wkh wdeoh wr vhh krz wkh| frpsduh1
Li rxu vwdwlvwlf lv xqolnho| wr frph iurp wkh lghdo glvwulexwlrq/ rxu k|srwkhvlv lv xqolnho| wr eh
wuxh1 Wklv lv d jurvv ryhu0vlpsolfdwlrq/ ri frxuvh/ exw khosv wr vhw wkh vfhqh iru wkh +voljkwo|,
pruh uljrurxv glvfxvvlrq zklfk iroorzv1 Doo ri wkh whvwv glvfxvvhg lq wklv fkdswhu uho| rq wkh
xqghuo|lqj dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh srsxodwlrq+v, duh Qrupdo1
duh wkh ohyhov ri frqwdplqdwlrq lq wklv duhd kljkhu wkdq rwkhu duhdvB
lv wklv oderudwru| jlylqj eldvvhg vdpsoh uhvxowv frpsduhg wr dqrwkhuB
grhv wklv phwkrg ri vdpsolqj surgxfh kljkhu uhvxowv wkdw dqrwkhuB
dqg vr rq1 Lw kdv wr eh uhphpehuhg wkdw wkh txhvwlrqv duh dvnhg derxw wkh srsxodwlrq fkdudf0
whulvwlfv1 Zh nqrz wkdw rqh vhw ri vdpsohv kdv d kljkhu dyhudjh wkdq wkh rwkhu1 Wkh txhvwlrq
lv/ lv lw kljkhu vlpso| ehfdxvh ri udqgrp vhohfwlrq ri vdpsohv iurp wkh vdph srsxodwlrq ru lv
lw uhdoo| kljkhuB Wkh surfhgxuh ri k|srwkhvlv whvwv jlyhv xv d iudphzrun rq zklfk wr edvh
remhfwlyh ghflvlrqv derxw wkh vljqlfdqfh ri dq| glhuhqfhv1
MB G jQ ' j
Wkh uhohydqw vwdwlvwlf zklfk doorzv xv wr whvw wkh k|srwkhvlv lv wkh udwlr ri wkh wzr yduldqfhv
hvwlpdwhg iurp wkh vdpsoh vhwv=
rQ
8 '
r
Wklv vwdwlvwlf lv wkh udwlr ri wzr txdqwlwlhv/ hdfk ri zklfk lv uhodwhg wr d glvwulexwlrq zlwk
d sduwlfxodu qxpehu ri ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp D Q dqg D 1 Wkh glvwulexwlrq zklfk ghvfulehv wkh
udwlr ri wzr v lv dwwulexwhg wr Vqhghfru dqg uhihuuhg wr dv wkh 8 glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh rughu ri
wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp lv ylwdo/ dv dq I glvwulexwlrq zlwk D Q dqg D ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp grhv
qrw orrn wkh vdph dv rqh zlwk D dqg D Q ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1
Ehfdxvh wkh glvwulexwlrq kdv wzr sdudphwhuv dvvrfldwhg zlwk lw/ zh qhhg d frpsohwh wdeoh
iru hdfk R ydoxh1 Wr fxw grzq rq wkh qxpehu ri wdeohv uhtxluhg zh xvh vrph v|pphwu|
fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh 8 glvwulexwlrq1 Zh vhw xs wkh vwdwlvwlf vr wkdw wkh fdofxodwhg udwlr
lv juhdwhu wkdq 41 D Q duh wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh wrs olqh dqg D wkrvh
dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh erwwrp olqh lq wkh 8 udwlr vwdwlvwlf1 Wkh xsshu hqg ri wklv glvwulexwlrq lv
jQ ' j ' j
wkhq erwk rQ dqg r duh hvwlpdwhv ri wkh vdph vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Lw zrxog vhhp vhqvleoh/
wkhuhiruh/ wr frpelqh wkhvh hvwlpdwhv wr jhw d vlqjoh lpsuryhg hvwlpdwh rsrrohg ri j zklfk lv
edvhg rq doo wkh gdwd1 Wklv lv grqh e|=
Hdfk ri wkhvh }7v fdofxodwhg iurp wkh vdpsoh vhwv vkrxog iroorz d Vwxghqw*v | glvwulexwlrq zlwk
wkh fruuhvsrqglqj ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Iru hdfk phdq wkh uhohydqw glvwulexwlrq kdv d vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq htxdo wr wkh srsxodwlrq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq glylghg e| wkh vtxduh urrw ri wkh qxpehu
ri vdpsohv1 Wkdw lv=
}7Q frphv iurp d | glvwulexwlrq zlwk ?Q ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dqg d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
I
ri rQ * ?Q
wkh wzr srsxodwlrq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv duh wkh vdph/ lq zklfk fdvh
rgl ' rsrrohg n
?Q ?
ru
wkh qxpehuv ri vdpsohv lq wkh wzr gdwd vhwv duh wkh vdph
}Q }
|'
rgl
dqg wklv fdq eh frpsduhg wr rxu ghflvlrq ohyho iru uhmhfwlrq ru dffhswdqfh ri wkh k|srwkhvlv1
Qrwh= rxu ghflvlrq ohyho zloo eh lq xhqfhg e| zkhwkhu zh duh lqwhuhvwhg vlpso| lq glhuhqfh
lq zklfk fdvh erwk srvlwlyh dqg qhjdwlyh glhuhqfhv zloo eh vljqlfdqw ru zkhwkhu zh
kdyh d fohdu fxw lghd ri zklfk lv vxssrvhg wr eh wkh eljjhu ri wkh wzr1 Li/ iru h{dpsoh/ zh
duh frqfhuqhg derxw h{fhhglqj d suhylrxvo| revhuyhg ydoxh +dv lq srooxwlrq vwxglhv ru txdolw|
frqwuro, zh duh rqo| lqwhuhvwhg lq vljqlfdqfh ohyhov dw rqh cwdlo* ri wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Li zh
vlpso| zdqw wr nqrz zkhwkhu wkh| duh olnho| wr eh glhuhqw/ zh duh frqfhuqhg zlwk erwk
cwdlov* ri wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Wkxv/ d whvw zloo riwhq eh uhihuuhg wr dv d rqh wdlohg ru wzr
wdlohg whvw1 \rxu ulvn ohyhov pxvw eh prglhg ghshqglqj rq zkhwkhu lw lv doo dw rqh hqg ru
vsolw ehwzhhq wkh wzr1
41 Jurxs wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv lqwr klvwrjudp ru edu fkduw lqwhuydov wkh revhuyhg iuhtxhqflhv1
51 Xvlqj wkh wkhruhwlfdo prgho iru wkh glvwulexwlrq/ fdofxodwh krz pdq| vdpsohv zrxog olh
zlwklq hdfk lqwhuydo xqghu lghdo flufxpvwdqfh wkh h{shfwhg iuhtxhqflhv1
61 Fdofxodwh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg dqg wkh h{shfwhg dqg vtxduh wklv ydoxh1
Xqiruwxqdwho|/ wkh vxp ri wkhvh vtxduhv grhv qrw kdyh d hyhq li wkh k|srwkhvlv lv
wuxh1 Zh kdyh wr vwdqgduglvh wkh vtxduhg glhuhqfhv wr eh deoh wr xvh wkh =
Erevhuyhg h{shfwhg
h{shfwhg
Ehfdxvh wkh glhuhqfhv duh glylghg e| wkh h{shfwhg +wkhruhwlfdo, iuhtxhqf|/ wkhvh frp0
srqhqwv ri wkh fdofxodwlrq fdq eh hqruprxvo| h{djjhudwhg e| lqwhuydov zlwk yhu| vpdoo
h{shfwhg ydoxhv1 Lw lv xvxdo/ wkhuhiruh/ wr jurxs lqwhuydov vr wkdw d plqlpxp vl}h ri
h{shfwhg ydoxh lv rewdlqhg1 Wkhuh duh pdq| glhuhqw uhfrpphqgdwlrqv exw prvw vhhp
wr eh lq wkh udqjh 681
71 Li wkh k|srwkhvlv lv wuxh/ wkh vxp ri wkhvh whupv zloo iroorz d glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh
qxpehu ri ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh vwdwlvwlfv lv wkh qxpehu ri whupv
zklfk zhqw lqwr wkh vxp/ ohvv wkh qxpehu ri sdudphwhuv zklfk kdg wr eh hvwlpdwhg iru
wkh glvwulexwlrq prgho ohvv rqh ghjuhh ri iuhhgrp iru wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri vdpsohv lq wkh
dqdo|vlv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li zh zdqwhg wr whvw d vhw ri gdwd iru d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq/ zh
zrxog qhhg wr hvwlpdwh phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq iurp wkdw gdwd1 Rxu qdo ghjuhhv
ri iuhhgrp zrxog/ wkhuhiruh/ eh ? 1
Wkh jrrgqhvv ri w whvw dovr glhuv iurp prvw rwkhu k|srwkhvlv whvwlqj lq rqh yhu| lpsruwdqw
sduwlfxodu1 Lw lv rqh ri wkh yhu| ihz whvwv zkhuh zh zdqw wr eh csuryhg uljkw*1 Lq jhqhudo/ li
zh whvw rxu vdpsohv iru frqiruplw| wr d sduwlfxodu glvwulexwlrq/ zh zdqw wkhp wr frph iurp
wkdw glvwulexwlrq1 Zh gr qrw zdqw wr uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv1
j9} ' r} ' Db fp j9R} ' rR} ' .. fp
Zh vhw xs d k|srwkhvlv=
rR}
8 ' ' .f
r}
Qrz/ zh nqrz iurp suhylrxv zrun wkdw yduldqfhv ri Qrupdo gdwd iroorz glvwulexwlrqv1
Wkdw lv/ rR} frphv iurp d glvwulexwlrq zlwk D R} ' ?R} ' 21 Dovr/ r} frphv iurp
d glvwulexwlrq zlwk D } ' ?} ' 2e1 Wkh vwdwlvwlf zklfk zh fdofxodwh lv d udwlr ri
wkh wzr yduldqfhv1 Xqghu devroxwho| lghdo flufxpvwdqfhv wkdw lv/ li wkh wzr yduldqfhv j} dqg
jR} duh dfwxdoo| htxdo/ wklv udwlr vkrxog eh dssur{lpdwho| htxdo wr 41 Ri frxuvh/ zh rqo|
kdyh d olplwhg dprxqw ri gdwd vr lw zrq*w eh h{dfwo| htxdo wr 41 Li zh frxog gr wklv vruw ri
ch{shulphqw* pdq| wlphv/ zh zrxog surgxfh d glvwulexwlrq ri ydoxhv durxqg wkh phdq ydoxh ri
41 Wkh glvwulexwlrq zklfk ghvfulehv d udwlr ri wzr vdpsoh yduldqfhv +zkhq wkh uhdo yduldqfhv
duh htxdo, lv fdoohg dq 8 glvwulexwlrq1 Wr ghqh wkh uhohydqw vkdsh ri 8 glvwulexwlrq/ zh qhhg
wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp ri wkh qxphudwru +D Q , dqg wkdw ri wkh ghqrplqdwru +D ,1 Wkh wdeohv
vkrzlqj 8 glvwulexwlrq vwdwlvwlfv kdyh wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh cwrs olqh* lq
wkh udwlr dorqj wkh wrs ri wkh wdeoh dqg wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh cerwwrp
olqh* grzq wkh vlgh ri wkh wdeoh1
Lq vkruw/ li wkh k|srwkhvlv lv wuxh/ wklv vwdwlvwlf vkrxog iroorz dq 8 glvwulexwlrq zlwk
D Q@54 dqg D @57 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Dffruglqj wr Wdeoh 8+d, ri shufhqwdjh srlqwv ri wkh
8 glvwulexwlrq/ zh qhhg d vwdwlvwlf ri dw ohdvw 51366: ehiruh wkhuh lv dq| vwurqj hylghqfh ri
glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv1 Dw wkh 8( ohyho/ wkh fruuhvsrqglqj 8 ydoxh
lv 51366:1 Iurp wkhvh ydoxhv zh fdq vhh wkdw d ydoxh ri 41:36 lv zhoo zlwklq wkh h{shfwhg
8 glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh vwdwlvwlf zrxog vhhp wr vxssruw wkh k|srwkhvlv1 Wkhuhiruh/ zh pxvw
frqfoxgh wkdw wkh yduldqfhv duh wkh vdph1
} R} } }
| ' t
rsrrohg ?Q} n Q
?R}
Hff .e2
' t
SHf Q, n Q
' 2bH
Li wkh k|srwkhvlv lv wuxh/ wklv vwdwlvwlf vkrxog frph iurp d Vwxghqw*v | glvwulexwlrq zlwk
D ' 2e n 2 2 ' e ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Dffruglqj wr Wdeoh 7 ri wkh shufhqwdjh srlqwv ri
wkh | glvwulexwlrq/ d ydoxh ri 51<4; +ru deryh, rffxuv vrphzkhuh ehwzhhq 318 dqg 314I ri wkh
wlph1 Wkdw lv/ li wkh wzr phdqv zhuh uhdoo| htxdo/ dqg zh glg wklv whvw 4333 wlphv/ zh zrxog
h{shfw wr jhw d glhuhqfh wklv elj ohvv wkdq 8 wlphv1 Vr/ wkh uhpdlqlqj txhvwlrq lv/ zhuh zh
mxvw xqoxfn| dqg vwuxfn wzr vdpsohv zklfk duh yhu| xqxvxdo lq zklfk fdvh zh frxog vwloo
dffhsw wkdw wkh phdqv zhuh dfwxdoo| htxdo1 Ru vkrxog zh vd| wkdw wkh fkdqfh ri jhwwlqj d
ydoxh wklv elj lv vr vpdoo wkdw zh grq*w dfwxdoo| eholhyh wkh k|srwkhvlv wr eh wuxh1 Lq wklv fdvh/
li zh vd| wkdw wkh wzr phdqv duh uhdoo| vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw/ zh wdnh ohvv wkdq 318( fkdqfh
ri ehlqj zurqj1
Lw zrxog vhhp rqo| vhqvleoh wr uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv dw wkh 318( ohyho dqg wr frqfoxgh
wkdw wkh dyhudjh khljkw ri srvwjudgxdwh vwxghqwv lv dfwxdoo| juhdwhu wkdq wkdw ri xqghujudgxdwh
vwxghqwv1
vdpsohv iurp ghyhorsphqw gulyhv +wxqqhov, xvhg wr dffhvv wkh yhlq dqg
vdpsohv iurp plqhg rxw duhdv +vwrshv, iurp zklfk wkh wlq lv surgxfhg1
Rqh ri wkh prvw iuhtxhqwo| dvnhg txhvwlrqv gxulqj wkh olih ri d plqh lv grhv wkh surgxfwlrq
pdwfk wkh suhglfwlrqB1 Wkdw lv/ gr wkh vwrsh ydoxhv iroorz wkh vdph ehkdylrxu dv wkh vdpsohv
iurp wkh gulyhvB Dv dq h{huflvh/ zh glylghg wkh duhd lqwr 433 irrw vtxduhv dqg dyhudjhg doo wkh
yhlq wklfnqhvv ydoxhv lqvlgh hdfk vtxduh1 Lq wkh qdo dqdo|vlv/ wkhuh zhuh 454 cvwrslqj eorfnv*
zklfk kdg uhdvrqdeoh qxpehuv ri vdpsohv lq erwk gulyh dqg vwrsh1 Wkh dyhudjh yhlq wklfnqhvv
lq wkh ghyhorsphqw gulyhv ryhu wkhvh eorfnv lv 55197 lqfkhv zlwk d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri :1<:
lqfkhv1 Wkh uhohydqw vwdwlvwlfv iru vwrsh wklfnqhvvhv duh 5318; dqg 81:8 lqfkhv uhvshfwlyho|1
Wklv lv d glhuhqfh ri 5 lqfkhv rq wkh dyhudjh ydoxh dqg ryhu 5 lqfkhv lq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1
Li zh iroorzhg wkh fodvvlf wzr vdpsoh dssurdfk/ zh jhw wkh iroorzlqj uhvxowv1
rghy .b.
8 ' ' ' b2
rvwrsh D.D
61 Frqvxowlqj Wdeoh 8/ zh qg wkdw wkh 8( vljqlfdqfh srlqw iru D Q '453 dqg D '453
ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp lv r wkh sdjh1 Zh wkhuhiruh kdyh wr xvh D Q ' " dqg D '453/ zklfk
jlyhv xv d vljqlfdqfh ohyho ri 41587 dw 8( dqg 41643 dw 518(1
71 Zh kdyh wr uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv wkdw wkh wzr frph iurp glvwulexwlrqv zlwk wkh vdph
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Wkh ghyhorsphqw ydoxhv duh vljqlfdqwo| pruh yduldeoh wkdq wkh
vwrsh ydoxhv dw vrph R ydoxhv orzhu wkdq 313581
Lq qrupdo flufxpvwdqfh/ wklv uhmhfwlrq zrxog suhyhqw xv iurp xvlqj wkh vwdqgdug Vwxghqw*v |
whvw1 Krzhyhu/ zh kdyh wkh vdph qxpehu ri vdpsohv lq erwk vhwv/ vr zh fdq xvh wkh vwdqgdug
| whvw zlwk vrph fdxwlrq exw qrw zlwk d srrohg yduldqfh1 Udwkhu zh pxvw fdofxodwh=
}7ghy }7vwrsh
|'
re
zkhuh
rghy rvwrsh
re ' n ' f.bH
2 2
re ' fHb D
Ri frxuvh/ wkh zkroh ri wkh deryh fdofxodwlrq lv dfwxdoo| vsxulrxv ehfdxvh wklv lv d csdluhg*
vlwxdwlrq hdfk gulyh ydoxh lv gluhfwo| sdluhg zlwk d vwrsh ydoxh1 Zh wkhuhiruh irupxodwh rxu
txhvwlrqv dv iroorzv= li zh wdnh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh ghyhorsphqw dqg vwrsh ydoxh iru
wkh vdph eorfn/ lv wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkh glhuhqfhv }hurB
Wklv lv qrz d crqh vdpsoh* whvw ri wkh k|srwkhvlv KB G >gl ' f1 Zh fdofxodwh wkh phdq
dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh glhuhqfhv=
9171 H{huflvhv
41 Jrog ydoxhv lq d Zlwv0w|sh uhhi duh nqrzq wr eh orjqrupdo zlwk dq dgglwlyh frqvwdqw ri
315 j2w1 Vdpsohv iurp wkh vdph duhd zlwklq wkh plqh kdyh ehhq vhqw wr wzr glhuhqw dvvd|
oderudwrulhv iru hydoxdwlrq1 Lv wkhuh dq| hylghqfh wkdw wkh oderudwrulhv duh uhwxuqlqj
glhuhqw ydoxhv iru vlplodu vdpsohvB
Oderudwru| D Oderudwru| E
413;8 41538 414;; 414:3 41663 414;: 4155< 4156; 4156; 415:9
414<; 41484 41549 415;3 4154< 416;: 417:3 4176: 41695
71 Vdpsohv kdyh ehhq wdnhq dw udqgrp lq wzr glhuhqw duhdv ri d edvh phwdo ghsrvlw1 Lw lv
vxvshfwhg wkdw duhd 5 frqwdlqv vljqlfdqwo| kljkhu ydoxhv wkdq duhd 41 Lv wkhuh dq| hyl0
ghqfh wr vxssruw wklv dvvhuwlrqB H{sodlq lq ghwdlo wkh vwhsv zklfk |rx iroorz wr rewdlq
wklv frqfoxvlrq1
Duhd 4 Duhd 5
441;7 ;15; 8197 917< 46139 45175 491;: 53145 46174 4<179
:1:8 813< 91:6 <17< 45197 47189 4:168 4<1;4 5319< 48193
81 Gxulqj hydoxdwlrq ri dedqgrqhg frsshu2fredow gxpsv lq Fhqwudo Diulfd/ vdpsohv zhuh
vhqw wr wzr glhuhqw oderudwrulhv iru frpsdulvrq sxusrvhv1 Wkh iroorzlqj vxppdu|
vwdwlvwlfv zhuh fdofxodwhg iurp wkh wzr edwfkhv ri vdpsohv1 Lv wkhuh d vljqlfdqw glhuhqfh
ehwzhhq wkh dvvd|v iurp wkh wzr oderudwrulhvB Krz zrxog wkh dssursuldwh whvw glhu li
|rx zhuh wrog wkdw wkh wzr vhwv ri vdpsohv zhuh dfwxdoo| gxsolfdwh vsolwv iurp d vlqjoh
vhw ri 93 vdpsohvB
Ode 4 Ode 5
phdq ydoxh 3165;3 315<;3
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq 313997 313939
qxpehu ri vdpsohv 93 93
91 Zkhq vdpsohv duh wdnhq zlwklq dq dooxyldo gldprqg plqh/ rqh ri wkh pdmru hfrqrplf
yduldeohv lv wkh qxpehu ri vwrqhv irxqg zlwklq wkh vdpsoh1 Wzr glhuhqw duhdv zlwklq
d gldprqg plqh kdyh ehhq vdpsohg1 Wkhuh lv d eholhi wkdw wkh duhdv duh glhuhqw lq
fkdudfwhu1 Lv wkhuh dq| vwdwlvwlfdo hylghqfh lq vxssruw ri wklv eholhiB
Duhd 4= 9 6 3 4 ; Duhd 5= : 44 48 ; 47
5 : 3 4 7 < 45 47 48 43
li rqh yduldeoh lv d orw fkhdshu wr phdvxuh +ru pd| eh phdvxuhg pruh uholdeo|, wkhq zh
frxog suhglfw wkh rwkhu iurp lw>
li +vd|, jrog judgh lv kljko| uhodwhg wr uhhi zlgwk/ zh pd| frqwuro plqlqj pruh h!flhqwo|
e| revhuylqj wkh yduldwlrq lq uhhi zlgwk/ udwkhu wkdq zdlwlqj iru jrog dvvd|v>
li surgxfwlylw| zdv fkdqjlqj/ zh pljkw zlvk wr hvwdeolvk zklfk ri wkh pdq| srvvleoh
yduldeohv lq surgxfwlrq zdv dhfwlqj lw prvw1
Wkhuh duh wzr pdmru uhdvrqv +lq rxu suhvhqw frqwh{w, iru wu|lqj wr txdqwli| d uhodwlrqvkls=
41 Wr lghqwli| h{dfwo| zkdw w|sh ri uhodwlrqvkls h{lvwv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li wkh uhdfwlrq wr dq
hqylurqphqwdo idfwru lv gluhfwo| +olqhduo|, uhodwhg wr d fhuwdlq yduldeoh ru li lw fkdqjhv
h{srqhqwldoo|1
51 Wr suhglfw wkh ydoxh ri dq xqphdvxuhg yduldeoh e| nqrzq ydoxhv rq rwkhu uhodwhg phd0
vxuhg yduldeohv1
Erwk ri wkhvh zloo rffxs| d orw ri rxu dwwhqwlrq lq wkh fkdswhuv wr iroorz1
Qrz/ zh fdq vhh fohduo| wkdw prvw ri wkh srlqwv rq wkh judsk duh lq wkh vhfrqg dqg irxuwk
txdgudqwv1 Iru d vwurqj gluhfw uhodwlrqvkls/ wkh srlqwv zrxog eh prvwo| lq wkh uvw dqg wklug
txdgudqwv1 Lq judsk e/ wkhuh duh pruh srlqwv lq wkhvh wzr txdgudqwv wkdq lq wkh vhfrqg dqg
wklug1 Lq judsk f/ wkh srlqwv duh pruh ru ohvv htxdoo| glvwulexwhg ehwzhhq doo irxu txdgudqwv1
Dq| phdvxuh ri uhodwlrqvkls/ wkhq/ vkrxog uh hfw wklv ehkdylrxu1 Olvwlqj wkh txdgudqwv=
Wr vxppdulvh/ wkhq/ d vwurqj gluhfw uhodwlrqvkls jlyhv prvw sdluv hlwkhu +./., ru +/,/ zklovw
d vwurqj lqyhuvh uhodwlrqvkls jlyhv prvw sdluv +/., ru +./,1 Li zh wdnh wkh furvv surgxfw ri
wkh wzr cfr0ruglqdwhv* iru hdfk vdpsoh/ uvw dqg wklug txdgudqwv jlyh d srvlwlyh qxpehu/ zklovw
vhfrqg dqg irxuwk txdgudqwv jlyh d qhjdwlyh qxpehu1 Dyhudjlqj doo ri wkhvh furvv surgxfwv
whoov xv zkhuh wkh pdmrulw| ri wkh srlqwv duh=
?
[
E} }7Es s7
? '
Zh glylgh e| +? , ehfdxvh zh duh wu|lqj wr hvwlpdwh wkh cwuxh* srsxodwlrq ydoxh dqg zh
kdyh wr xvh E7}c s7 dv dq hvwlpdwh ri E>} c >s 1 Wklv vwdwlvwlf lv nqrzq dv d fryduldqfh d
cydu|lqj wrjhwkhu*1 Lw fdq dovr eh fdofxodwhg dv iroorzv=
# ? $
[
r}s ' }s7
} s ?7
? '
Zkhuh zh xvh r}s wr ghqrwh wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq } dqg s 1 Wklv lv d jhqhudolvdwlrq ri wkh
r zh xvhg iru vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq r2} frxog eh zulwwhq htxdoo| zhoo dv r}} / wkh fryduldqfh
ehwzhhq } dqg lwvhoi1 Iru wkh h{dpsohv jlyhq deryh/ wklv vwdwlvwlf lv=
Lw fdq eh vhhq wkdw wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg dvk frqwhqw lv odujh dqg qhjdwlyh1
Wkdw ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg vxoskxu lv pxfk vpdoohu dqg srvlwlyh1 Wklv lv dv h{shfwhg1
Krzhyhu/ wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg wklfnqhvv lv qrw pxfk glhuhqw iurp wkdw
ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg vxoskxu1 Dovr/ wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg hohydwlrq
lv rqo| kdoi wkh ydoxh ri wkh vwurqj FY2Dvk uhodwlrqvkls1 Grhv wklv phdq wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls
lv dv vwurqjB
Wkh pdmru sureohp zklfk uhpdlqv lv wkdw wkh fryduldqfh phdvxuh lv lq xhqfhg e| wkh xqlwv
lq zklfk wkh yduldeohv duh phdvxuhg1 Zh frxog udlvh wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg
wklfnqhvv wr 4915: vlpso| e| phdvxulqj wkh vhdp wklfnqhvv lq fhqwlphwuhv lqvwhdg ri phwuhv1
Zrxog wkdw phdq wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls lv vwurqjhuB Qr/ ri frxuvh qrw1 Zkdw zh qhhg ehiruh
zh fdq uhdoo| dvvhvv wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh uhodwlrqvkls lv d phdvxuh zklfk lv lqghshqghqw ri wkh
xqlwv lq zklfk lw lv phdvxuhg1 Lq hhfw/ zh qhhg wr cvwdqgduglvh* wkh yduldeohv wr kdyh wkh
vdph pdjqlwxgh ri vfdoh1 Wkh vlpsohvw zd| wr gr wklv lv wr glylgh wkurxjk e| wkh vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq1 Zh kdyh douhdg| wudqvodwhg wkh d{hv wr fhqwuh rq E7 }c s71 Li zh qrz vfdoh wkh d{hv
Wklv qhz vwdwlvwlf/ o/ lv nqrzq dv wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw dqg fdq rqo| wdnh ydoxhv ehwzhhq
4 dqg .41 D shuihfw gluhfw uhodwlrqvkls zrxog jlyh .41 D shuihfw lqyhuvh uhodwlrqvkls zrxog
jlyh 41 D shuihfw odfn ri uhodwlrqvkls zrxog jlyh 31 Lq sudfwlfh/ ri frxuvh/ wkh uhdo fruuhodwlrq
olhv vrphzkhuh zlwklq wklv udqjh1 Wkh wkuhh h{dpsohv deryh jlyh wkh iroorzlqj fruuhodwlrqv=
judsk fruuhodwlrq
d fbeb2
e 318;39
f 314764
g 31635<
Qrz lw fdq eh vhhq fohduo| wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg vxoskxu lv pxfk
vwurqjhu wkdq wkdw ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg wklfnqhvv1 Krzhyhu/ wkh odvw fruuhodwlrq lv qrw
h{dfwo| }hur1 Zh pxvw uhphpehu wkdw zh rqo| kdyh d uhodwlyho| ihz vdpsohv iurp wkh zkroh
srsxodwlrq1 Hyhq li wkh srsxodwlrq fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw +4, lv }hur/ zh gr qrw h{shfw d
fdofxodwhg vdpsoh vwdwlvwlf wr eh h{dfwo| wkdw ydoxh1 Zh pxvw ghwhuplqh zkhwkhu wkh ydoxh lv
vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur ehiruh zh fdq vwdwh wkdw wkhuh lv dfwxdoo| d uhodwlrqvkls1 Iru
wklv zh qhhg d k|srwkhvlv whvw1 Iroorzlqj wkh vdph surfhgxuh dv suhylrxvo| +vhh Fkdswhu 9,=
41 Vhw xs wkh k|srwkhvlv wkdw wkhuh lv qr uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh wzr yduldeohv1 Wkdw lv/
Mf G 4 ' f1 Lq zrugv/ li zh kdg doo srvvleoh vdpsohv zlwklq wkh srsxodwlrq/ wkh wuxh
fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw zrxog eh }hur1
61 Ilqg zkdw glvwulexwlrq lw zrxog iroorz li wkh k|srwkhvlv lv wuxh1 Wdeohv duh dydlodeoh wr
khos xv zlwk wklv/ vxfk dv Wdeoh 9 lq wkh Dsshqgl{ wr wklv errn1 Wkh gldjudp dw wkh wrs
ri wkh wdeoh vkrzv xv wkh glvwulexwlrq iurp zklfk o zrxog frph li 4 lv dfwxdoo| }hur1 Wkh
fdofxodwhg vwdwlvwlf o zloo ydu| durxqg wkh lghdo }hur ydoxh1 Krz pxfk lw ydulhv ghshqgv
rq krz pdq| vdpsohv zh kdyh ru/ udwkhu/ krz pdq| ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp zh kdyh1 Lq
rughu wr fdofxodwh o/ zh kdg wr wudqvodwh wkh d{hv wr +7 7 dqg wkhq vfdoh wkh d{hv wr
}c s,
+r} c rs ,1 Wkdw phdqv zh xvhg wzr sdudphwhuv hvwlpdwhg iurp wkh gdwd/ dqg wkxv orvw
wzr ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Wkh uhohydqw ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp/ wkhuhiruh/ duh D ' ? 21
71 Ilqdoo| zh frpsduh rxu vwdwlvwlf wr wkh ydoxh lq wkh wdeoh wr vhh krz wkh| frpsduh1
Iru wkh wkuhh fdvhv frqvlghuhg deryh/ zh kdg <9 vdpsohv lq hdfk fdvh1 Wkdw phdqv wkdw
D ' bS 2 ' be1 Orrnlqj dw Wdeoh 9/ zh vhh wkdw li 4 ' f/ zh kdyh d 8( fkdqfh wkdw o zrxog
f.f. o nf.f.
Wkdw lv/ d fdofxodwhg fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw zklfk lv eljjhu +lq pdjqlwxgh, wkdq 314:3: kdv d
43( fkdqfh ri rffxuulqj li wkhuh lv dfwxdoo| qr fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh wzr yduldeohv1 Dq o
ydoxh eljjhu wkdq 31535; kdv d 8( fkdqfh ri rffxuulqj li wkhuh lv qr uhdo fruuhodwlrq1 Ydoxhv
eljjhu wkdq 3156<9 frxog rffxu ohvv wkdq 5( ri wkh wlph1 D ydoxh eljjhu wkdq 31647; kdv ohvv
wkdq d 315( fkdqfh ri rffxuulqj rqh fkdqfh lq yh kxqguhg1
Wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg dvk frqwhqw lv 31<7<51 Wkh fkdqfh ri wklv rffxu0
ulqj li wkh wuxh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw zdv }hur lv yhu| yhu| vpdoo fhuwdlqo| ohvv wkdq 314(/
dffruglqj wr wkh wdeoh1 Li zh uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv/ zh duh pxfk ohvv wkdq 314( olnho| wr eh
zurqj1 Vlqfh wkh k|srwkhvlv lv cqr fruuhodwlrq*/ uhmhfwlqj lw phdqv zh kdyh ghflghg wkdw wkhuh
lv d fruuhodwlrq1
Wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg vxoskxu frqwhqw lv 318;391 Wklv lv vwloo vljql0
fdqwo| odujhu wkdq wkh 314( ydoxh ri 31647;1 Wkhuhiruh/ zh pxvw dovr uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv ri
qr fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg vxoskxu1 Wkhuh lv d vljqlfdqw uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq
wkhvh wzr yduldeohv1
Wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq fdorulf ydoxh dqg vhdp wklfnqhvv lv 3147641 Wklv lv zhoo zlwklq
wkh <3( frqghqfh olplwv txrwhg deryh + f.f,1 Wkdw lv/ zh duh txlwh olnho| wr jhw ydoxhv
olnh 314764 li wkh wuxh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw lv }hur1 Wkhuhiruh/ zh pxvw dffhsw wkh k|srwkhvlv
ri qr fruuhodwlrq1 Ri frxuvh/ lw lv vwloo srvvleoh wkdw zh duh zurqj1 Krzhyhu/ zh kdyh qr
hylghqfh wr vkrz wkdw zh duh zurqj vr zh pxvw wdnh wkh +lqfdofxodeoh, ulvn lq wklv fdvh1
s 9 ' Kf n K }
zkhuh s 9 ghqrwhv wkh hvwlpdwhg ydoxh iru wkh yduldeoh 8 dw d jlyhq ydoxh iru }1 Zh kdyh
douhdg| vwdwhg wkdw zh zdqw d olqh zklfk jrhv wkurxjk wkh fhqwuh ri judylw| ri wkh forxg ri
srlqwv rq wkh vfdwwhujudp wkdw lv/ wkurxjk wkh dyhudjhv +7 7 Xqiruwxqdwho|/ wklv vwloo
}c s,1
ohdyhv xv zlwk dq lqqlwh ydulhw| ri srvvleoh olqhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ wkh olqh=
s 9 ' s7
zrxog jr wkurxjk +7 } c s7, vlqfh lw lv krul}rqwdo iru doo ydoxhv ri }1 Wklv lv wkh htxlydohqw ri vd|lqj
wkh ehvw suhglfwlrq iru dq| ydoxh ri 8 lv vlpso| wkh hvwlpdwhg dyhudjh iru wkh srsxodwlrq1 Wkh
fruroodu| ri wklv lv wkdw wkhuh lv dfwxdoo| qr uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq 8 dqg }1 Iru dq| olqh zh
fkrrvh/ wkhuh zloo eh d glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh ydoxh suhglfwhg e| wkh olqh/ s 9/ dqg wkh dfwxdo
ydoxh/ s 1 Frqvlghu wkh judsk ehorz/ zklfk vkrzv d srvvleoh olqh dqg wkh dfwxdo vdpsoh ydoxhv1
Wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh hvwlpdwhg Dvk ydoxh dqg wkh dfwxdo Dvk ydoxh lv wkh yhuwlfdo
glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh olqh dqg wkh srlqw iru hdfk vdpsoh1 Qrwh wkdw lw lv qrw wkh vkruwhvw
glvwdqfh wr wkh olqh exw wkh yhuwlfdo glvwdqfh1 Wkh lpsolfdwlrq ri wklv lv wkdw wkh olqh iru
suhglfwlqj Dvk iurp FY zloo eh glhuhqw iurp wkh olqh suhglfwlqj FY iurp Dvk1 Wkh glhuhqfh
ehwzhhq wkh dfwxdo ydoxh dqg wkh hvwlpdwhg ydoxh lv jhqhudoo| whuphg wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru
ru uhvlgxdo1 Zh ghqh wkh ehvw w olqh dv wkh rqh zklfk plqlplvhv wkh uhvlgxdov1 Li zh
ghqrwh wkh uhvlgxdo ydoxh xvlqj wkh Juhhn ohwwhu h/ "/ wkhq=
s ' Kf n K } n "
zkhuh s vwdqgv iru wkh Dvk ydoxh ri vdpsoh / dqg } wkh fdorulf ydoxh iru wkh vdph vdpsoh1
Wxuqlqj wklv durxqg jlyhv xv=
" ' s Kf K }
ru
Wkxv/ iru dq| jlyhq olqh/ zh fdq fdofxodwh wkh uhvlgxdo ydoxh iru hdfk vdpsoh dqg vhh krz wkh
uhvlgxdov ehkdyh1 Vlqfh zh duh krslqj wr suhglfw rwkhu ydoxhv/ zh dvvxph zh duh ghdolqj zlwk
s7 ' Kf n K}7
Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkh dyhudjh huuru +uhvlgxdo, ydoxh zloo eh }hur li zh pdnh wkh olqh jr wkurxjk
}c s7,1 Wkdw lv/ zh zloo irufh 7" wr eh }hur/ ehfdxvh zh nqrz wkdw zh qhhg
wkh dyhudjh ydoxhv +7
>" wr eh }hur1 Zkhq wkh phdq huuru lv }hur/ zh vd| wkdw wkh hvwlpdwru lv xqeldvvhg1
Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh huuruv/ j" / phdvxuhv wkh vsuhdg ru pdjqlwxgh ri wkh huuruv
durxqg wkh }hur ydoxh1 Vlqfh zh fdqqrw qg wkh ydoxh ri wkh srsxodwlrq sdudphwhu/ zh qhhg
wr hvwlpdwh lw iurp wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Iru dq| duelwudu| ydoxhv ri Kf dqg K/ wkh yduldqfh ri
wkh huuruv zrxog eh=
?
[
r2" ' E" >" 2
? '
?
[ 2
' "
? '
vlqfh wkh phdq huuru lv h{shfwhg wr eh }hur1 Zh zloo ghqh wkh ehvw w olqh dv wkdw olqh zklfk
plqlplvhv wkh yduldqfh ri wkh huuruv1 Wkh idfwru ? fdq kdyh qr lq xhqfh lq wkh plqlplvdwlrq/
vlqfh lw lv frqvwdqw iru rxu vdpsoh vhw1 Wkhuhiruh/ zh dfwxdoo| plqlplvh wkh vxp ri wkh vtxduhg
huuruv=
?
[
7 ' "2
'
?
[
' Es Kf K } 2
'
}c s7,=
Wkh uvw htxdwlrq lv rqh zh kdyh douhdg| vhhq1 Lw vlpso| vd|v wkdw wkh olqh jrhv wkurxjk +7
Kf n K}7 ' s7
S
Li zh pxowlso| wklv uvw htxdwlrq e| ?7
} +ru } / zklfk lv wkh vdph wklqj, dqg vxewudfw lw
iurp wkh vhfrqg htxdwlrq/ zh jhw=
?
[ ?
[ [?
Kf } n K 2 2
} ?Kf}7 ?K}7 ' }s7
} s ?7
' ' '
# ?
$ ?
[ [
K }2 ?7
}2 ' }s7
} s ?7
' '
Wkdw lv/ wkh rswlpxp ydoxh iru wkh vorsh ri wkh Ohdvw Vtxduhv uhjuhvvlrq olqh lv vlpso| wkh
fryduldqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr yduldeohv glylghg e| wkh yduldqfh ri wkh rqh zh xvh iru suhglfwlrq1
Wkh lqwhufhsw ri wkh olqh lv irxqg iurp wkh nqrzohgjh wkdw wkh olqh pxvw sdvv wkurxjk +7} c s7,=
Kf ' s7 K }7
Qrwh wkdw wkh yduldqfh lv glylghg e| ?2 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp/ ehfdxvh erwk vorsh dqg lqwhufhsw
duh hvwlpdwhg iurp wkh vdpsoh gdwd1 Lw vkrxog dovr eh qrwhg wkdw ehfdxvh wzr frh!flhqwv kdyh
ehhq hvwlpdwhg wr jhw wkh vwudljkw olqh jhwwlqj frqghqfh olplwv rq suhglfwhg ydoxhv lv qrw dv
vlpsoh dv mxvw wdnlqj Seebr" 1 Frqghqfh olplwv duh d frpelqdwlrq ri=
41 wkh uhpdlqlqj +uhvlgxdo, yduldqfh>
51 wkh xqfhuwdlqw| rq wkh hvwlpdwhg vorsh ri wkh olqh +Kf,>
61 wkh xqfhuwdlqw| rq wkh lqwhufhsw iru wkh olqh +K,>
71 wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dvvrfldwhg zlwk wklv hvwlpdwlrq +? 2,1
Ghwdlov rq krz wr hydoxdwh frqghqfh iru Ohdvw Vtxduhv uhjuhvvlrq fdofxodwlrqv fdq eh
irxqg lq prvw edvlf vwdwlvwlfv wh{w errnv1
dqg
zkhuh K9f dqg K9 duh hvwlpdwhv ri wkh lqwhufhsw dqg vorsh ri wkh vwudljkw olqh/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Lw
pljkw eh zruwk qrwlqj wkdw=
[ [
"2 ' E} K9f K9s 2
' H2fffSbf (Dvk2
[
j2" ' "2
E? 2
' fH.2 eH (Dvk2
j" ' fb e (Dvk
Frpsdulqj wklv wr rs ' 2bD (Dvk vkrzv wkdw wkh suhglfwlrq vkrxog eh d ydvw lpsuryhphqw
ryhu vlpso| dvvxplqj wkdw
vlqfh doprvw wzr0wklugv ri wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv ch{sodlqhg* e| wkh vwudljkw olqh uhodwlrqvkls1
Lw lv dovr zruwk qrwlqj wkdw wkh htxdwlrq wr suhglfw fdorulf ydoxh iurp dvk ydoxh zrxog eh=
r} 2eDH
K9 ' o' Efbeb2 ' f.bfS PM shu (Dvk
rs 2bD
K9f ' 2eS2e n f.bfS Sbe ' HfH PM
zklfk lv qrw txlwh wkh vdph olqh dv ehiruh1 Lq idfw/ wkh frvlqh ri wkh dqjoh ehwzhhq wkh wzr
olqhv lv wkh vdph dv wkh fdofxodwhg fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw/ o1 Wkh forvhu o lv wr 4 +ru 4, wkh
forvhu wkh wzr olqhv zloo eh wr rqh dqrwkhu1
Frpsdulqj wklv wr rs ' fDH (Vxoskxu vkrzv wkdw wkh suhglfwlrq zloo qrw d yhu| juhdw
lpsuryhphqw ryhu vlpso| dvvxplqj wkdw
Iljxuh :17= ohdvw vtxduhv uhjuhvvlrq olqhv iru vxoskxu dqg fdorulf ydoxh
Lw lv hylghqw iurp wklv sorw wkdw zh qhhg wr Qrupdolvh wkh gdwd ehiruh wkh judsk lv jrlqj wr
pdnh dq| vhqvh dw doo1 Zh nqrz wkdw wkh uhhi zlgwkv duh orjqrupdo dqg wkdw wkh jrog judghv
uhtxluh dq dgglwlyh frqvwdqw ri 3156 wr pdnh wkhp orjqrupdo1 Wudqviruplqj wr *L}e +zlgwk,
dqg *L}e +judgh.3156, zh surgxfh d qhz judsk/ zklfk lv vkrzq lq Iljxuh :191
Rq wkh edvlv ri wklv judsk zh fdq vhh wkdw wkhuh vhhpv wr eh qr uhodwlrqvkls ri dq| nlqg
ehwzhhq wkh wzr yduldeohv1 Zh pd| suhihu wr eholhyh wkdw wkhuh lv d uhodwlrqvkls vr wkdw zh
pd| fdofxodwh wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw dqg dvfhuwdlq zkhwkhu lw lv vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp
}hur1
Wkh hvwlpdwh ri wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw +o, lv fdofxodwhg dv iroorzv=
fryduldqfh
o '
r} rs
[ E} }7 Es s7
'
? r} rs
S 7
} s ?7
}s
'
E? r} rs
zkhuh= } ghqrwhv wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh jrog judgh +soxv 3156,> 8 lv wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh uhhi
zlgwk> }7 dqg 8 wkh dulwkphwlf phdq ri hdfk +uhvshfwlyho|,> dqg r} dqg rs wkh uhvshfwlyh
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv1 ? lv wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv xvhg lq wkh dqdo|vlv1
Zh wdnh orjdulwkpv ri wkh wzr phdvxuhphqwv1 Gudzlqj d vfdwwhujudp vkrzv wkdw wkhuh
dsshduv wr eh d vljqlfdqw gluhfw uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh wzr phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkh
fdofxodwlrqv jlyh=
}7 ' e
r} ' 2ffH
s7 ' . H
rs ' DHfe
o ' fHe D
zkhuh 8 ghqrwhv wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh qxpehu ri vfdoorsv eljjhu wkdq :3 pp dqg }
wkh qxpehu ri vpdoohu vfdoorsv1 Wkh fdofxodwlrqv vxjjhvw d yhu| vljqlfdqw fruuhodwlrq
vr wkdw
zkhuh } dqg 8 duh wkh orjdulwkpv ri odujh dqg vpdoo vfdoors frxqwv uhvshfwlyho|1 Li
zh wdnh d qhz vdpsoh dqg rqo| phdvxuh wkh qxpehu ri odujh vfdoorsv/ zh fdq suhglfw
wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh qxpehu ri vpdoo vfdoorsv iurp wklv htxdwlrq1 Wkh hvwlpdwh zloo eh
xqeldvvhg rq dyhudjh wkdw lv/ vrphwlphv zh zloo hvwlpdwh wrr kljk dqg vrphwlphv zh
zloo hvwlpdwh wrr orz/ exw wkh kljkv dqg orzv zloo fdqfho rxw wr jlyh xv wkh uljkw dqvzhu
rq dyhudjh1 Krzhyhu/ wklv lv qrw wuxh li zh cdqwl0orj* wkh hvwlpdwh wr jhw dq hvwlpdwh ri
wkh dfwxdo qxpehu ri vpdoo vfdoorsv1 Zk| vkrxog wklv ehB
Frqvlghu wkh olqh zh kdyh wwhg wr rswlplvh wkh hvwlpdwlrq1 Lw uxqv wkurxjk +s7c }7, wr
nhhs wkh hvwlpdwhv xqeldvvhg1 Wklv lv wkh dyhudjh ri wkh orjdulwkplf ydoxhv1 Dv zh vdz
lq Fkdswhu 7/ wkh phdq ri wkh orjdulwkpv lv wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh phgldq ri wkh dfwxdo
ydoxhv1 Vr/ iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri dfwxdo ydoxhv/ wklv olqh uxqv wkurxjk wkh phgldq
srlqw1 Wkhuh lv qr jxdudqwhh wkdw lw zloo uxq wkurxjk wkh phdq srlqw +fhqwuh ri judylw|,
iru wkh xqwudqviruphg frxqwv1 Wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh cedfnwudqvirup* lv xqeldvvhg zh qhhg
wkh suhglfwhg fxuyh wr jr wkurxjk wkh phdq ri wkh xqwudqviruphg ydoxhv1
Frqvlghu dovr wkh ryhu0hvwlpdwhv dqg xqghu0hvwlpdwhv1 Ydoxhv zklfk duh wrr odujh/ zkhq
dqwl0orjjhg/ zloo ehfrph h{srqhqwldoo| odujhu1 Ydoxhv zklfk duh wrr vpdoo lq wkh hvwl0
pdwhg orjdulwkpv zloo ehfrph h{srqhqwldoo| vpdoohu dqg fdqqrw jr ehorz }hur1 Ehfdxvh
ri wklv/ wkh ryhu0hvwlpdwhv dqg xqghu0hvwlpdwhv zloo qr orqjhu fdqfho rxw zkhq edfn0
wudqviruphg1 Dv d frqvhtxhqfh zh fdqqrw mxvw zulwh=
dqg h{shfw wkh dqvzhuv wr eh xqeldvvhg +xqiruwxqdwho|$,1 Li zh dvvxph wkdw wkh orjd0
ulwkpv kdyh d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq/ wkhq zh kdyh dvvxphg wkdw wkh ruljlqdo vdpsoh ydoxhv
kdg d orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Li wklv lv mxvwlhg/ zh fdq xvh wkh orjqrupdo wkhru| wr
jlyh xv d cwkhruhwlfdo* edfnwudqvirup zklfk zloo hqvxuh wkdw rxu hvwlpdwhv duh xqeldvvhg
lq wkh xqwudqviruphg ydoxhv1
Li zh jhw fohyhu dqg uhphpehu wkdw } lv wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh qxpehu ri vfdoorsv eljjhu
wkdq :3 pp dqg dovr uhphpehu wkh pdwkhpdwlfdo uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq orjdulwkpv dqg
h{srqhqwldov/ zh nqrz wkdw=
ghshqglqj rq zkhwkhu |rx suhihu *L}e ru *? +orj qdwxudo, dqg &:.f vwdqgv iru frxqw ri
vfdoorsv juhdwhu wkdq :3 pp1 Wkhq=
dv
fSHe
&9 .f ' fbbf&: .f
zklfk zloo jlyh xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwhv iru wkh vpdoohu vfdoors frxqw1 Frpsduh wklv wr vlpso|
dqwl0orjjlqj wkh ohdvw vtxduhv vroxwlrq rq wkh orjdulwkpv1 Wkh wwhg olqh zdv=
Zh vdz lq Fkdswhu 7 wkdw wkh vfdoors ydoxhv duh qrw h{dfwo| orjqrupdo1 Zkhq d wkhr0
uhwlfdo glvwulexwlrq prgho fdqqrw eh wwhg wr d gdwd vhw ru zh gr qrw zlvk wr iru rwkhu
uhdvrqv zh fdq xvh d glvwulexwlrq iuhh ru qrq0sdudphwulf dssurdfk1 Prvw edvlf
vwdwlvwlfv errnv kdyh vhfwlrqv rq qrq0sdudphwulf vwdwlvwlfv/ sduwlfxoduo| iru k|srwkhvlv
Dv zh fdq vhh/ doo sureohpv zlwk huudwlf h{wuhph ydoxhv kdyh ehhq uhpryhg e| fduu|lqj
rxw wkh wudqvirup1 Wkh kljkhvw vdpsoh ydoxh lv rqo| 4 pruh wkdq wkh qh{w kljkhvw1
Vwdwlvwlfdo dqdo|vhv fduulhg rxw zlwk wklv wudqvirup duh jhqhudoo| yhu| vwdeoh dqg lqiru0
pdwlyh1 Pdq| glhuhqw dqdo|vhv fdq eh lpsuryhg e| xvlqj d udqn wudqvirup1 Sduwlfxodu
h{dpsohv zloo eh vkrzq lq Fkdswhu 451
Iru rxu cuhodwlrqvkls* dssolfdwlrq/ zh zloo qhhg wr dsso| d udqn wudqvirup wr erwk vfdo0
orsv juhdwhu wkdq :3 pp dqg vfdoorsv vpdoohu wkdq :3 pp1 Rxu vfdwwhujudp zloo/ wkhq/
looxvwudwh zkhwkhu wkh vdpsohv duh udqnhg lq wkh vdph rughu iru erwk phdvxuhphqwv dqg
khos xv ghflgh rq d uhodwlrqvkls1 Wkh judsk lv vkrzq lq Iljxuh :1;1
Ehfdxvh erwk ri wkh yduldeohv duh udqn wudqvirupv/ wkh vwdwlvwlfv iru erwk yduldeohv zloo
eh wkh vdph1 Lq Iljxuh :1; wkh udqnv kdyh ehhq vwdqgduglvhg wr 433( lq erwk fdvhv1
Wkh phdq ydoxh lv/ e| ghqlwlrq 83 dqg wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv 5;1::1 Zh fdq frqyhuw
wklv edfn lqwr dfwxdo udqn e| pxowlso|lqj e| wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv.41 Wkh phdq lv=
Df
EeH n ' .eD
ff
dqg wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq zrxog eh 751;: udqnv1 Zh qg wkdw vwdqgduglvlqj wr 433(
pdnhv lw hdvlhu wr lqwhusuhw wkh uhvxowv/ vlqfh |rx gr qrw kdyh wr uhphpehu krz pdq|
vdpsohv |rx vwduwhg zlwk1 Wklv lv qrw d jhqhudo sudfwlfh1
Wkh fdofxodwhg fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw lq wklv fdvh lv 31<33</ zklfk lv h{wuhpho| kljk dqg
uljkw r Wdeoh 91 Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ wkh fruuhodwlrq vhhpv wr eh ehwwhu lq wkh wdlov wkdq lq wkh
fhqwuh ri wkh udqn ydoxhv1 Yhu| kljk ydoxhv jr zlwk yhu| kljk ydoxhv1 Prghudwh ydoxhv
vhhp wr eh pruh pl{hg1 Wkh orzhvw vdpsohv vhhp wr olh rq dq devroxwh olqh wkhvh duh
wkh vdpsohv zkhuh qr vfdoorsv ri dq| nlqg zhuh irxqg vr wkdw erwk phdvxuhphqwv duh
}hur1 Wkhuh duh ydulrxv glhuhqw vxjjhvwlrqv dv wr zkdw kdsshqv zkhq zh kdyh cwlhv* lq
wkh ydoxhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ 58 ri wkh vdpsohv vkrz }hur vfdoorsv lq wkh :3 pp vl}h udqjh1
Krz gr zh udqn wkhvhB Rqh sudfwlfdo vxjjhvwlrq lv qrw wr xvh udqn wudqvirupv zkhuh
|rx kdyh odujh qxpehuv ri cwlhv*1 Iru wkh sxusrvh ri wklv looxvwudwlrq udqnv duh dvvljqhg
udqgrpo| dprqjvw wlhv1
Wklv w|sh ri fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw lv riwhq uhihuuhg wr dv Vshdupdq*v udqn fruuhodwlrq1
Kdylqj ghwhuplqhg wkdw wkhuh lv d uhodwlrqvkls dprqjvw wkh udqnv/ rqh pljkw zlvk wr qg
d suhglfwlyh uhodwlrqvkls iru rqh yduldeoh iurp wkh rwkhu1 Wkh sureohp zklfk uhpdlqv
lv wkdw zh duh zrunlqj zlwk wudqviruphg ydoxhv1 Iru d qhz vdpsoh/ zkhuh zh phdvxuhg
+vd|, vfdoorsv juhdwhu wkdq :3 pp/ zh zrxog qhhg wr=
+d, qg wkh htxlydohqw udqnlqj ri wkh qhz vdpsoh lq wkh ::3 pp vfdoors frxqwv
+e, hvwlpdwh wkh :3 pp vfdoors frxqw +dv d udqn,
+f, edfnwudqvirup wkh udqn lqwr wkh htxlydohqw :3 pp vfdoors frxqw ydoxh
Iljxuh :1<= dyhudjhv ri 433 irrw eorfnv/ Jhhyru Wlq Plqh 4<:9
Lq prvw ri wkh Zlwv0w|sh jrog plqhv lq Vrxwk Diulfd/ wkh jhqhudo phwkrg ri hvwlpdwlqj wkh
ydoxh zlwklq d vwrslqj eorfn lv wr dyhudjh fkls vdpsohv wdnhq iurp wkh zrunlqj idfh1 Lq vrph
plqhv/ wklv lv prglhg e| wdnlqj wkh lpphgldwh sdvw idfh ydoxhv lq dgglwlrq wr wkh fxuuhqw idfh1
Zkdwhyhu wkh fdvh/ wkh hvwlpdwh iru wkh vwrsh ydoxh frqvlvwv ri dyhudjlqj ydoxhv phdvxuhg rq
durxqg 4345 nlorjudpv ri vdpsoh pdwhuldo1 Zh nqrz iurp suhylrxv zrun wkdw dyhudjlqj d
qxpehu ri vdpsohv surgxfhv ydoxhv iurp d qhz srsxodwlrq glvwulexwlrq zlwk d vpdoohu vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq wkdq wkh ruljlqdo fkls vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Wkh ryhudoo phdq ri wkh glvwulexwlrqv uhpdlqv
wkh vdph1
Li zh qg wkh frh!flhqwv/ iKf c Kc K2 j/ wkhq wkh huuru ri hvwlpdwlrq iru hdfk vxoskxu ydoxh lv
wkh cwuxh* ydoxh ri d vdpsoh ohvv wkh ydoxh suhglfwhg e| wkh htxdwlrq=
Wkh vxpv ri furvv surgxfwv dqg vtxduhg ydoxhv fdq eh fdofxodwhg xvlqj dq| vsuhdgvkhhw
sdfndjh ru vxlwdeoh frpsxwhu vriwzduh1 Wkhvh htxdwlrqv fdq dovr eh h{suhvvhg dv iroorzv=
zkhuh= rTcr ghqrwhv wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq FY dqg Dvk> rTc7,Ro wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq
FY dqg Vxoskxu> rrc7,Ro wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq Dvk dqg Vxoskxu> r2T dqg r2r duh wkh
yduldqfhv ri FY dqg Dvk ydoxhv uhvshfwlyho|1 Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh ydoxhv iru rxu h{dpsoh=
Vroylqj wkhvh htxdwlrqv zloo jlyh xv wkh cehvw* hvwlpdwhv iru wkh frh!flhqwv ri wkh uhodwlrqvkls/
Kf/ K dqg K2 1
Wklv zd| ri zulwlqj wkh htxdwlrqv doorzv wkh jhqhudo irup wr eh vhhq pruh fohduo|1 Wkh
dgglwlrq ri dqrwkhu yduldeoh wr wkh htxdwlrq zrxog eh dffrpsolvkhg vlpso| e| dgglqj dqrwkhu
whup wr hdfk htxdwlrq dqg d vlqjoh h{wud htxdwlrq iru wkh dgghg frh!flhqw/ K 1 Pruh whupv
zkhuh= rc ghqrwhv wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq yduldeohv dqg > r2 lv wkh yduldqfh ri wkh ydoxhv
ri wkh wk yduldeoh> rcf lv wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq wkh wk yduldeoh dqg wkh yduldeoh wr eh
suhglfwhg1 Wklv pdwul{ od|rxw lv vroyhg xvlqj vwdqgdug phwkrgv dqg wkh Kf whup lv irxqg
xvlqj wkh frqglwlrq wkdw wkh htxdwlrq pxvw jr wkurxjk doo ri wkh uhohydqw phdqv1
Iru rxu h{dpsoh frdo surmhfw/ zh qg wkdw rqfh wkh htxdwlrqv kdyh ehhq vhw xs dqg vroyhg/
zh kdyh=
wr khos xv suhglfw wkh vxoskxu ydoxh zkhq FY dqg Dvk duh nqrzq1 Li zh wdnh wkh <9 vdpsohv
zklfk zh kdyh/ zh fdq fdofxodwh wkh vxp ri vtxduhg cuhvlgxdov* iurp wklv suhglfwhg sodqdu
uhodwlrqvkls=
?
[ [?
2
" ' EVxoskxu Kf KFY K2 Dvk 2
' '
' eeb
Wr whvw wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri wklv htxdwlrq dv d suhglfwru ri vxoskxu ydoxh/ zh frpsduh lw zlwk
wkh edvlf vlpsohvw suhglfwru/ zklfk zrxog vlpso| eh=
Wkh cqxoo k|srwkhvlv* lv wkdw zh zrxog eh mxvw dv zhoo dvvxplqj wkdw wkh vxoskxu ydoxh ydulhv
udqgrpo| durxqg wkh phdq ohyho ri vxoskxu1 Wklv lv d k|srwkhvlv whvwlqj vlwxdwlrq1 Lw lv
srvvleoh wr fdofxodwh d pxowlsoh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw dqg whvw zkhwkhu wklv lv vljqlfdqw1
Krzhyhu/ wklv whvw lv rqo| ydolg iru vwudljkw olqh uhodwlrqvklsv1 Zh qg lw pruh xvhixo dqg
pruh jhqhudoo| dssolfdeoh wr od| wkh fdofxodwlrq rxw lq d wudglwlrqdo Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh
wdeoh=
Vrxufh Vxp ri Vtxduhv ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp Phdq Vtxduh 8 udwlr
Uhjuhvvlrq e| glhuhqfh
S 2 & UhjVV2Uhjgi -e}oerrJ?7
Uhvlgxdo S " ? & UhvVV2Uhvgi -er_@,7
Wrwdo 7
Es s 2 ?
zkhuh & lv wkh qxpehu ri K frh!flhqwv zklfk zhuh hvwlpdwhg lq wkh uhjuhvvlrq surfhvv1 Wkh
cuhvlgxdo* ru udqgrp yduldqfh lv fdofxodwhg iurp ? vdpsohv diwhu hvwlpdwhg & frh!flhqwv iurp
Dffruglqj wr Wdeoh 8+e,/ dw D ' 2 dqg D 2 ' b / ydoxhv eljjhu wkdq 61;8< rqo| rffxu 518(
ri wkh wlph1 D ydoxh dv elj dv 5<1:< zrxog rffxu yhu| vhogrp li wkhuh zdv qr uhodwlrqvkls1
Wkhuhiruh/ zh uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv dqg vd| wkdw wkhuh lv d uhodwlrqvkls1 Rq wkh hylghqfh ri
wklv dqdo|vlv/ zh kdyh wr eholhyh wkdw=
lv d ehwwhu zd| wr suhglfw wkh vxoskxu ydoxh wkdq mxvw wdnlqj wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri 4137<
(Vxoskxu1 Wkh uhodwlrqvkls fdq eh looxvwudwhg ylvxdoo| dv d wkuhh glphqvlrqdo sodqh ru frqwrxu
pds1
Rqsd pruh shvvlplvwlf qrwh/ zh pd| vwdwh wkdw wkh uhpdlqlqj huuru kdv d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
ri ffDS ' f2D(V/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkh suhglfwlyh htxdwlrq vwloo ohdyhv d orw wr eh ghvluhg$
Lq d vlqjoh odujh vfdoh dqdo|vlv/ wkh hqwluh sdvw plqlqj vdpsolqj lv xvhg wr ghwhuplqh wkh
fryduldqfhv ehwzhhq eorfnv ri jurxqg lq ydulrxv frqjxudwlrqv1 Rqfh wklv lv dfklhyhg/ wkh
hvwlpdwlrq ri d vwrsh sdqho ehfrphv vlpsoh d pxowl0yduldeoh olqhdu uhjuhvvlrq v|vwhp zkhuh
wkh glhuhqw cyduldeohv* duh eorfnv ri jurxqg zlwk klvwrulfdo vdpsolqj zklfk fdq eh xvhg wr
hvwlpdwh wkh fxuuhqw eorfn1 Wkh htxdwlrqv orrn mxvw olnh wkrvh lq wkh suhylrxv h{dpsoh=
5 2 65 6 5 6
r rc2 rc rc& K rcf
9 r2c
9 r22 r2c r2c& :9
:9 K2 : 9
: 9 r2cf :
:
9 r c
9 r c2 r2 r c& :9
:9 K :'9
: 9 r cf :
:
7 87 8 7 8
r&c r&c2 r&c r2& K& r&cf
Wr vlpsoli| wkh fdofxodwlrqv dqg fxw grzq wkh dprxqw ri zrun qhfhvvdu|/ Nuljh hyroyhg d
whpsodwh zklfk frxog eh odlg ryhu wkh plqhg rxw duhdv1 Wkh whpsodwh lv odlg ryhu dq duhd
wkdw frqwdlqv klvwrulf vdpsolqj lqirupdwlrq1 Doo vdpsohv zlwklq hdfk eorfn rxwolqhg rq wkh
whpsodwh duh dyhudjhg dqg vwruhg1 Wkh whpsodwh lv wkhq pryhg +voljkwo|B,1 Wklv surylghv
qhz ydoxhv iru hdfk ri wkh eorfnv1 Wklv surfhvv lv uhshdwhg xqwlo doo ri wkh klvwrulfdo vdpsolqj
kdv ehhq xvhg1 Zh qrz kdyh vhwv ri ydoxhv iru hdfk ri wkh eorfnv rxwolqhg lq wkh whpsodwh1
Ohw xv wdnh/ iru h{dpsoh/ eorfnv G4 dqg D41 Iru dq| vlqjoh srvlwlrq ri wkh whpsodwh/ zh zloo
kdyh d ydoxh lq G4 dqg d ydoxh lq D41 Wklv olvw ri sdluhg ydoxhv fdq eh xvhg wr hvwlpdwh wkh
fryduldqfh ehwzhhq eorfnv lq wkh uhodwlyh vl}h dqg srvlwlrq ri G4 dqg D41 Zh fdq lqfuhdvh wkh
qxpehu ri sdluv dydlodeoh li zh dvvxph wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq G4 dqg D4 lv wkh vdph
dv wkdw ehwzhhq G: dqg D61 Li zh dgg lq G7 zlwk D5 dqg G43 zlwk D7/ wkh qxpehu ri sdluv
zloo eh juhdwo| lqfuhdvh dqg khqfh wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh fryduldqfh zloo eh pruh uholdeoh1
Wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq doo srvvleoh frqjxudwlrqv ri eorfnv +dqg wkh uhohydqw yduldqfhv,
fdq doo eh fdofxodwhg dw wkh vdph wlph li wkh frpsxwhu surjudp lv zulwwhq h!flhqwo|1 Wkh
yduldqfhv dqg fryduldqfhv fdq wkhq eh wdexodwhg1
Zkhq d vwrsh hvwlpdwh lv uhtxluhg/ wkh whpsodwh vkrxog eh odlg ryhu wkh vxuurxqglqj duhd1
Doo vdpsohv zlwklq hdfk eorfn vkrxog eh dyhudjhg1 Wkh uhjuhvvlrq htxdwlrqv duh vhw xs xvlqj
wkh wdexodwhg ydoxhv iru yduldqfhv dqg fryduldqfhv1 Wkhvh htxdwlrqv duh vroyhg iru wkh K
frh!flhqwv1 Wkh dyhudjh ydoxhv lq wkh eorfnv duh pxowlsolhg e| wkh fruuhvsrqglqj K ydoxh wr
jlyh +krshixoo|, d ehwwhu hvwlpdwh ri wkh vwrsh ydoxh wkdq fdq eh rewdlqhg e| vlpso| xvlqj
wkh dyhudjh ri rqh ru wzr qhljkerxulqj idfhv1
Qrz/ dowkrxjk wklv vhhpv wr eh d pruh frpsoh{ uhodwlrqvkls/ lw lv qrw uhdoo|1 Lw lv +dojh0
eudlfdoo|, lghqwlfdo wr wkh Vxoskxu djdlqvw FY dqg Dvk sureohp h{fhsw wkdw lq wklv fdvh zh
kdyh hohydwlrq djdlqvw FY dqg djdlqvw wkh vtxduh ri FY1 Li zh wdnh wkh htxdwlrqv lq vxevhfwlrq
:1614 dqg uhsodfh cVxoskxu* zlwk chohydwlrq* dqg Dvk zlwk FY2 zh jhw=
[ [ [
?Kf n K FY n K2 FY2 ' hohydwlrq
[ [ [ [
Kf FY n K FY2 n K2 FY ' FY hohydwlrq
[ [ [ [
Kf FY2 n K FY n K2 FYe ' FY2 hohydwlrq
zklfk fdq eh sorwwhg rq wkh judsk ri hohydwlrq yhuvxv fdorulf ydoxh/ zklfk lv vkrzq ehorz1
Iljxuh :145= fxuyhg olqh wwhg ehwzhhq hohydwlrq dqg fdorulf ydoxh
Dffruglqj wr Wdeoh 8+e,/ dq 8 ydoxh zlwk 5 dqg <6 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp zloo rqo| wdnh d ydoxh
deryh 8 zlwk d 518( suredelolw|1 Wkdw lv/ li zh glg wklv h{huflvh 73 wlphv dqg wkhuh uhdoo| zdv
qr uhodwlrqvkls/ rqh ri wkrvh wlphv zh zrxog jhw d ydoxh deryh 81 Zh zrxog kdyh wr gr d orw
pruh wkdq 73 wr jhw d ydoxh dv kljk dv 4316<1 Vr rxu ghflvlrq lv edvhg rq wklv= glg zh mxvw jhw
+xq,oxfn| dqg gudz wkh 4 lq krzhyhu pdq| ru lv wkhuh uhdoo| d uhodwlrqvklsB Iru wkh vdnh ri
vdqlw|/ zh zloo uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv dqg ghflgh wkdw xvlqj wklv olqh dv d suhglfwru ri hohydwlrq
lv pxfk pruh vhqvleoh wkdq mxvw xvlqj wkh dyhudjh hohydwlrq ryhu wkh vwxg| duhd1
Ri frxuvh/ wklv udwkhu ehjv wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhu d vwudljkw olqh zrxog qrw kdyh ehhq
mxvw dv hhfwlyh1 Wkh ehvw ohdvw vtxduhv vwudljkw olqh wr suhglfw hohydwlrq iurp fdorulf ydoxh
zrxog eh=
e,e@|J? ' SSS2 fDf T
Iroorzlqj wkh vdph surfhgxuh wr jhw dq Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh wdeoh surgxfhv=
Vrxufh Vxp ri Vtxduhv ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp Phdq Vtxduh 8 udwlr
Vwudljkw olqh 4581:568 4581:568 ;154
Uhvlgxdo 476<18547 be 4816474
Wrwdo 48981577< bD
Djdlq zh kdyh wr dffhsw wkdw wkh vwudljkw olqh uhjuhvvlrq jlyhv ehwwhu suhglfwlrq wkdq mxvw
xvlqj wkh ryhudoo dyhudjh1 Vr/ krz gr zh ghflgh ehwzhhq wkh wzr= vwudljkw olqh +vlpsohu, ru
fxuyhg olqh +orrnv ehwwhu,B Edvlfdoo| e| dgdswlqj wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh zlwk d qhz cqxoo
k|srwkhvlv1 Rxu qhz k|srwkhvlv lv=
wkh dssduhqw glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh fxuyh dqg wkh vwudljkw olqh
lv vlpso| udqgrp huuru pdvtxhudglqj dv d uhodwlrqvkls
Lq fdofxodwlrq whupv/ wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh uhgxfwlrq lq uhvlgxdo yduldqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr olqhv
lv vlpso| ryhu0wwlqj ri wkh udqgrp uhvlgxdov1 D qhz Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh +ru lqvhuw d olqh lq
wkh rog rqh, zrxog orrn olnh wklv=
ru/ shukdsv/
ru hyhq
} ' Kf n Kf n K2t n K f2 n Kef t n KDt2 n KSf n K.f2 t n KH f t2 n Kbt n "
Wkhvh vxuidfhv duh= Olqhdu d frqvwdqw gls lq vrph vlqjoh gluhfwlrq> Txdgudwlf d erzo
ru grph vkdsh/ dqwlfolqh ru v|qfolqh> Fxelf vdggoh srlqw/ shukdsv odujh vfdoh iroglqj1
Uhphpehu wkdw wklv lv wr eh wkh jhqhudo vkdsh ri wkh vxuidfh ryhu wkh zkroh vwxg| duhd1 Wkh
uhvlgxdo huuruv/ " / vkrxog eh Qrupdoo| glvwulexwhg li doo jrhv zhoo dqg zh kdyh uhpryhg wkh
wuhqg hqwluho|1 Wklv lv/ ri frxuvh/ qrw dozd|v wkh fdvh1
Wkhvh wkuhh htxdwlrqv fdq eh wwhg wr wkh gdwd e| wkh phwkrg ri Ohdvw Vtxduhv/ h{dfwo|
dv zlwk dq| rwkhu pxowl0yduldeoh htxdwlrq1 Wkh frdo hohydwlrq ydoxhv surgxfhg wkh iroorzlqj
wwhg htxdwlrqv=
zkhuh }9 zrxog eh wkh suhglfwhg ch{shfwhg* ydoxh iru wkh hohydwlrq iru jlyhq f dqg t fr0
ruglqdwhv1
Wkh uhvlgxdo yduldwlrq dv glvfxvvhg deryh lv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq zkdw wkh wuhqg vd|v lv
wkhuh +wkh htxdwlrq, dqg zkdw wkh dfwxdo ydoxh zdv1 Lq hdfk fdvh/ zh fkrvh d vxuidfh zklfk
pdgh wkh uhvlgxdo yduldwlrq dv vpdoo dv srvvleoh1 D wudglwlrqdo phwkrg xvhg e| jhrorjlvwv
wr ghflgh ehwzhhq wkh vxuidfhv lv vlpso| wr fdofxodwh wkh vxp ri wkh vtxduhg uhvlgxdov dqg
frpsduh wklv dv d shufhqwdjh ri wkh ruljlqdo yduldwlrq1
Shufhqwdjh ri Wrwdo Vxp Ri Vtxduhv=
Olqhdu Frpsrqhqw :614;
Txdgudwlf Frpsrqhqw ;51;5
Fxelf Frpsrqhqw ;<1:<
Wklv lv qrw d whuuleo| remhfwlyh phwkrg ri mxgjlqj zkhwkhu d vxuidfh wv wkh vdpsoh gdwd
zhoo ru qrw1 D pruh irupdo phwkrg xvhg e| vwdwlvwlfldqv wr mxgjh wkh vxlwdelolw| ri d Ohdvw
Vtxduhv w lv wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh1 Wklv dqdo|vlv uhtxluhv wkdw wkh uhvlgxdov vkrxog eh
lqghshqghqw ri rqh dqrwkhu1 Wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh lv d zd| ri jhwwlqj dq lqwxlwlyh ihho
iru zklfk vxuidfh +li dq|, pd| eh ehvw hyhq li wkh uhvlgxdo huuruv duh qrw wuxo| lqghshqghqw
ri rqh dqrwkhu1 Iurp wkh hohydwlrq ydoxhv lq wkh frdo surmhfw gdwd zh jhw=
Wkh deryh wdeoh lv dq h{dpsoh ri wkh vwdqgdug vwdwlvwlfdo dqdo|vlv fduulhg rxw zkhq frqvlghulqj
d Olqhdu Uhjuhvvlrq htxdwlrq dqg lwv w wr wkh vdpsoh gdwd1 Zh vkdoo glvfxvv wklv wdeoh lq
lqwxlwlyh whupv1 Wkrvh pruh dffxvwrphg wr pdwkhpdwlfdo h{sodqdwlrqv duh uhihuuhg wr wkh
fodvvlfdo vwdwlvwlfdo olwhudwxuh1 Ehdu lq plqg wkdw zkdw zh duh dqdo|vlqj lv yduldwlrq ehwzhhq
wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv duh wkh| glhuhqw vlpso| ehfdxvh ri udqgrp xfwxdwlrqv ru ehfdxvh vrph
Wkh uvw frpsduhv wkh wwlqj ri d txdgudwlf vxuidfh zlwk lwv vl{ frh!flhqwv zlwk dvvxplqj
wkdw wkhuh lv qr wuhqg rqo| wkh ryhudoo dyhudjh ydoxh1 Lq wklv fdvh wkh 8 udwlr jxuh lv HS.D
lqglfdwlqj wkdw d yhu| vljqlfdqw sursruwlrq ri wkh ruljlqdo yduldwlrq fdq eh h{sodlqhg e|
d txdgudwlf wuhqg vxuidfh1 Wklv jxuh lv orzhu wkdq wkh olqhdu 8 vwdwlvwlf/ sduwo| ehfdxvh zh
kdyh kdg wr fdofxodwh pruh frh!flhqwv1 Krzhyhu/ lw pljkw eh ehfdxvh wkh txdgudwlf lv qrw d
orw ehwwhu wkdq wkh olqhdu vxuidfh1 Wr frpsduh wkhvh gluhfwo| zh surgxfh wkh vhfrqg jxuh1
Wklv lv d phdvxuhphqw ri krz pxfk pruh yduldwlrq lv h{sodlqhg e| wkh txdgudwlf wkdq zdv
douhdg| h{sodlqhg e| wkh olqhdu1 Lq vkruw/ wkh dprxqw ri h{wud yduldwlrq h{sodlqhg e| wkh
lqfoxvlrq ri wkuhh h{wud frh!flhqwv l1h1 wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh uhvlgxdo vxp ri vtxduhv
ohiw diwhu wwlqj wkh Olqhdu dqg wkdw ohiw diwhu wwlqj wkh Txdgudwlf1 Wkh 8 vwdwlvwlf fdofxodwhg
iru wklv gdwd zdv SH2 zlwk 6 dqg <3 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp s Wkdw lv/ wkh h{wud frh!flhqwv lq wkh
txdgudwlf wuhqg duh h{sodlqlqj voljkwo| ryhu irxu wlphv + SH2, dv pxfk yduldwlrq1 Wklv vhhpv
wr eh vljqlfdqw dw wkh 518( ohyho zkhq frpsduhg wr wkh Wdeoh 8+e, ydoxh ri 615;81
Wkh odvw glylvlrq lq wkh wdeoh vkrzv vlplodu vwdwlvwlfv iru wkh fxelf vxuidfh1 Frpsdulqj wkh
fxelf vxuidfh zlwk qr wuhqg dw doo jlyhv dq 8 vwdwlvwlf ri Hef zklfk zrxog dsshdu wr eh
vljqlfdqw1 Frpsdulqj wkh fxelf vxuidfh zlwk wkh txdgudwlf/ krzhyhu/ jlyhv eS.1 Frpsdulqj
wklv wr wkh Wdeoh 8+e, ydoxh zlwk D ' e dqg D 2 ' HS/ zh qg wkh ydoxh 51<8<1 Wkxv/ lq wklv
fdvh/ wkh fxelf wuhqg vxuidfh lv vljqlfdqwo| ehwwhu wkdq wkh txdgudwlf1 Lw pd| yhu| zhoo eh
wkdw d txduwlf vxuidfh zrxog eh hyhq ehwwhu/ exw wkh deryh vkrxog eh vx!flhqw wr jlyh |rx dq
lghd ri wkh surfhvv1
Rqh ri wkh prvw xvhixo ihdwxuhv ri wklv dqdo|vlv lv wkh delolw| wr xvh wkh wwhg htxdwlrqv wr
surgxfh cpdsv* ri wkh wuhqg lq ydoxhv ryhu wkh ghsrvlw ru vwxg| duhd1 Zh vlpso| od| d julg ri
csrlqwv* ryhu wkh duhd dqg hydoxdwh wkh htxdwlrq iru wkh uhohydqw f dqg t fr0ruglqdwhv1 Wkh
vnhwfk pdsv lq Iljxuhv :146/ :147 dqg :148 vkrz wkh wkuhh wuhqg vxuidfhv glvfxvvhg deryh1
:171 H{huflvhv
Lqyhvwljdwh wkh uhodwlrqvklsv dqg wkh srvvlelolwlhv ri suhglfwlrq iru wkh iroorzlqj h{dpsohv1
Wuhqg vxuidfh dqdo|vlv lv dydlodeoh lq wkh dffrpsdq|lqj ghpr vriwzduh1 Wkh wuhqg vxuidfh
urxwlqhv fdq dovr eh dgdswhg wr fduu| rxw pxowl0yduldeoh uhjuhvvlrq/ dowkrxjk wklv lv qrw uhdoo|
uhfrpphqghg dv d uhjxodu ihdwxuh1 Wkhuh duh pdq| zlgho| dydlodeoh vwdwlvwlfv sdfndjhv zklfk
surylgh uhjuhvvlrq phwkrgv1
41 Wu| doo wkh frpelqdwlrqv lq wkh frdo gdwd vhw wkdw kdyh qrw ehhq glvfxvvhg1
51 Wkh wdeoh ehorz vkrzv wzr phdvxuhg yduldeohv zklfk duh h{shfwhg wr eh uhodwhg wr rqh
dqrwkhu1 Ghvfuleh wkh w|sh ri uhodwlrqvkls zklfk h{lvwv ehwzhhq wkhvh yduldeohv1 Glvfxvv
krz |rx pljkw txdqwli| wklv uhodwlrqvkls dqg krz |rx pljkw whvw lwv vljqlfdqfh1
71 Rqh ri wkh srwhqwldo sureohpv lq hydoxdwlqj wkh uhvhuyhv ri d plqhudo vdqgv ghsrvlw lv wkh
dffxudwh hvwdeolvkphqw ri wkh lq vlwx ghqvlw| ri wkh pdwhuldo ehlqj plqhg +wrqqhv2p ,1
Li d uhodwlrqvkls fdq eh irxqg ehwzhhq wkh khdy| plqhudo frqwhqw ri wkh vdqg dqg lwv
ghqvlw|/ d pruh dffxudwh uhvhuyh fdq eh rewdlqhg1 Jlyhq wkh lqirupdwlrq lq wkh wdeoh
ehorz/ vkrz zkhwkhu ru qrw wkh ghqvlw| ri d vdpsoh fdq eh suhglfwhg iurp lwv khdy|
plqhudo frqwhqw1
Vdqg I Khdy| Vdqg I Khdy|
Ghqvlw| Plqhudo Ghqvlw| Plqhudo
41:5 4415 41:8 4916
41;: 6<15 41<3 6415
41:5 4619 419< ;18
41:< <18 4167 91<
4197 ;14 419; :16
4179 5915 41:: 751:
41:5 4;19 41:4 591<
418< 4516 419< 915
4195 4814 4194 :13
4186 4;19 4193 4614
417: 814 4197 4915
41:; 716 41<4 551;
4193 816 4194 <1:
41;5 ;19 41:3 318
41:3 716 4188 318
91 Vwxg| wkh Vfdoors gdwd iru wuhqg1 Zk| zrq*w vwdqgdug wuhqg vxuidfh dqdo|vlv zrun zlwk
wklv gdwdB Zkdw frxog |rx gr wr pdnh xvh ri wuhqg vwxglhv lq wklv fdvhB
Vhyhudo eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg/ doo dw wkh vdph dqjoh/ rq d uhjxodu 433 irrw julg1 Wkh
uhvxowlqj ydoxhv duh vkrzq lq wkh eruhkroh od|rxw1 Qrwlfh wkdw vrph ri wkh eruhkrohv kdyh qrw
+|hwB, ehhq guloohg1 Zlwklq wkh whupv ri rxu ruljlqdo txhvwlrq/ zh pljkw dvn zkdw zrxog eh
wkh ydoxh dw wkh lqglfdwhg orfdwlrq zkhuh qr eruhkroh kdv ehhq guloohgB1
Lq rxu vwdwlvwlfdo dqdo|vhv lq suhylrxv fkdswhuv zh kdyh/ wdflwo|/ dvvxphg wkdw wkh phdvxuhg
ydoxhv duh gudzq udqgrpo| iurp vrph lghdolvhg srsxodwlrq ri doo srvvleoh vdpsohv1 Lw zdv
wkdw srsxodwlrq lq zklfk zh zhuh lqwhuhvwhg1 Qr uhihuhqfh zdv pdgh wr orfdwlrq1 Zh kdyh
wr dphqg rxu edvlf dvvxpswlrqv li zh uhghqh rxu sureohp wr uhihu wr d sduwlfxodu srwhqwldo
phdvxuhphqw udwkhu wkdq wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq1 Wkh uvw wzr dvvxpswlrqv duh uhwdlqhg=
vdpsoh ydoxhv duh phdvxuhg dffxudwho| dqg uhsuhvhqw wkh wuxh ydoxh dw wkdw orfdwlrq1
wkhvh vdpsohv frqvwlwxwh d yhu| vpdoo sduw ri d odujh krprjhqhrxv srsxodwlrq ri doo
srvvleoh vdpsohv>
wkhvh vdpsohv zhuh jdwkhuhg udqgrpo| dqg lqghshqghqwo| iurp wkdw odujh srsxodwlrq1
Iru rxu uhghqhg sureohp zh qhhg wr uhsodfh wkhvh odvw wzr dvvxpswlrqv zlwk wkh iroorzlqj=
Wkh vdpsohv duh froohfwhg iurp d sk|vlfdoo| frqwlqxrxv/ krprjhqhrxv srsxodwlrq ri doo
srvvleoh vdpsohv1 Lq vlpsohu whupv/ wkh skhqrphqrq zh kdyh phdvxuhg dw wkh vdpsoh
orfdwlrqv dovr h{lvwv dw doo wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrqv zlwklq wkh vwxg| duhd zlwk qr
vxgghq fkdqjhv lq fkdudfwhulvwlf1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li zh zhuh ghdolqj zlwk d frdo vhdp/
zh dvvxph wkdw wkh frdo vhdp lv suhvhqw dw doo srwhqwldo guloolqj vlwhv zlwklq wkh vwxg|
duhd dqg wkdw wkhuh duh qr idxowv/ zdvkrxwv ru exuqw duhdv zlwklq wkdw duhd1 Dv dqrwkhu
h{dpsoh/ li zh duh frxqwlqj zhhgv lq d hog/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkhuh duh qr duhdv zkhuh/
vd|/ wkh iduphu kdv vsuhdg h{wud zhhgnloohu dqg qr vljqlfdqw fkdqjhv lq vrlo w|sh zklfk
pljkw dhfw zhhg jurzwk1
Wkh ydoxhv dw xqvdpsohg orfdwlrqv duh uhodwhg wr wkh ydoxhv dw wkh vdpsohg orfdwlrqv1 Li
wkhuh lv qr uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq vdpsohv dqg xqvdpsohg ydoxhv/ wkhq zh duh edfn wr rxu
cudqgrp* frqfhsw dqg wkh ehvw hvwlpdwh iru dq xqnqrzq ydoxh +A , zrxog eh wkh dyhudjh
zkhuh=
Ri frxuvh/ zh grq*w kdyh > dqg j/ vr zh zrxog kdyh wr vxevwlwxwh }7 dqg r dv hvwlpdwhv1
Zh kdyh vhhq/ lq Fkdswhu 6/ wkdw uhsodflqj j e| r phdqv wkdw wkh 41977< +iurp Wdeoh
5, kdv wr eh uhsodfhg e| wkh uhohydqw ydoxh iurp Wdeoh 7 ri Vwxghqw*v | glvwulexwlrq1
Rxu hvwlpdwh }7 zdv surgxfhg iurp 7: vdpsohv/ vr +suhvxpdeo|, wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp
dvvrfldwhg zlwk wklv hvwlpdwh duh D ' eS1 Fkhfnlqj Wdeoh 7/ zh qg wkdw
D |
ef SHe
Df S.S
eS S.b2
}7 S.b2r A }7 S.b2r
Se S.b2 . A Se S.b2 .
f2 A e2S
Wkdw lv/ zh fdq eh <3( fhuwdlq wkdw wkh wuxh ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq olhv ehwzhhq
6315 (Ih dqg 7519 (Ih1 Ri frxuvh/ wkh zkroh gdwd vhw rqo| udqjhv ehwzhhq 5; dqg 77
(Ih/ vr wklv lv d suhww| vdih vwdwhphqw1
Lq vxppdu|/ wkhq/ li wkh ydoxhv duh frpsohwho| udqgrp/ rxu xqnqrzq ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg
orfdwlrq lv vlpso| dqrwkhu qxpehu gudzq dw udqgrp iurp wkh srsxodwlrq ri doo srvvleoh vdp0
sohv1 Li wkhuh lv vrph uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq vdpsoh ydoxhv dqg xqvdpsohg ydoxhv zklfk ghshqgv
rq orfdwlrq/ zh rxjkw wr eh deoh wr gr ehwwhu wkdq vlpso| xvlqj wkh ryhudoo phdq dqg jhwwlqj
yhu| zlgh frqghqfh lqwhuydov1
Orrnlqj dw wkh sorw ri wkh eruhkroh ydoxhv lq rxu h{dpsoh gdwd vhw/ zh fdq vhh wkdw wkhuh lv
vrph vruw ri cfrqwlqxlw|* lq wkh ydoxhv1 Prvw ri wkh vdpsohv lq wkh plggoh ri wkh duhd duh lq wkh
plg 63v/ vkdglqj wr wkh 73v wrzdugv wkh qruwkzhvw dqg wkh 53v wrzdugv wkh vrxwkhdvw1 Wkh
srlqw zh kdyh lqglfdwhg zkhuh zh zdqw wr hvwlpdwh wkh ydoxh lv wrzdugv wkh qruwkzhvw
fruqhu1 Rq wkh edvlv ri dssduhqw frqwlqxlw| lq ydoxhv/ zh zrxog h{shfw wklv eruhkroh wr kdyh
d ydoxh lq wkh kljk 63v ru orz 73v1 Li zh kdg vhohfwhg d srlqw lq wkh vrxwk iru rxu dwwhqwlrq/
zh zrxog h{shfw d ydoxh lq wkh orz 63v ru kljk 53v1
Rxu hvwlpdwru iru wkh xqnqrzq ydoxh/ A / zloo eh vrph vruw ri frpelqdwlrq ri wkh qhljkerxu0
lqj vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Ohw xv frqvlghu wkh vlpsohvw ri doo frpelqdwlrqv wkh olqhdu frpelqdwlrq ru
zhljkwhg dyhudjh1 Zh wdnh wkh orfdo vdpsohv zkhuh zh kdyh ydoxhv dqg frpelqh wkrvh vdpsoh
ydoxhv zlwk zhljkwlqj idfwruv lq xhqfhg e| krz forvh wkh| duh wr wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1
Wkdw lv=
zkhuh 6 lv wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv zh zdqw wr lqfoxgh lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq dqg wkh } wkh ydoxhv
ri wkrvh vdpsohv1 Wkh duh wkh czhljkwv* zklfk duh dwwdfkhg wr hdfk vdpsoh1
Xvlqj wkh deryh h{dpsoh/ ohw xv krph lq rq wkh duhd durxqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq ri
lqwhuhvw1
Iru wklv looxvwudwlrq/ zh zloo frqvlghu wkh vhyhq vdpsohv vxuurxqglqj wkh xqvdpsohg julg qrgh1
Wkh hvwlpdwh iru wkh xqnqrzq ydoxh ehfrphv=
zkhuh wkh vkrxog eh fkrvhq dffruglqj wr krz forvh hdfk vdpsoh lv wr A Vdpsohv 4/ 6/ 8
dqg : duh 474 ihhw iurp wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1 Vdpsohv 5/ 7 dqg 9 duh 433 ihhw iurp A 1
Lqwxlwlyho|/ zhljkwv 5/ 7 dqg 9 vkrxog eh juhdwhu wkdq zhljkwv 4/ 6/ 8 dqg :1 Wkh rqo| txhvwlrq
lv/ krz pxfk juhdwhuB
Lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wkdw zh kdyh qr gluhfw phdvxuh ri krz cforvh* wzr orfdwlrqv duh1 Zh fdq
phdvxuh wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkhp exw qrw wkh forvhqhvv1 Zh zloo/ wkhuhiruh/ kdyh wr dvvxph
wkdw forvhqhvv lv vrph lqyhuvh ixqfwlrq ri glvwdqfh1 Iru h{dpsoh/ zh frxog vxssrvh wkdw=
'
_
wkdw lv/ wkh zhljkwlqj lv lqyhuvho| sursruwlrqdo wr wkh glvwdqfh iurp wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1
Iru rxu h{dpsoh/ wklv zrxog surgxfh d zhljkw ri 3134 iru vdpsohv 5/7 dqg 9 dqg d zhljkw ri
3133:3:4 iru wkh gldjrqdo vdpsohv1 Wkh uhvxowlqj hvwlpdwru zrxog eh=
A 9 ' fff.f. Eef n . n . n ee n ff Ee n . n e2 ' 2f (Ih shu irrw
Wklv grhv qrw pdnh d orw ri vhqvh1 Zh zdqwhg d ydoxh lq (Ih dqg zh kdyh d ydoxh lq (Ih shu
irrw1 Zh h{shfwhg dq hvwlpdwh ehwzhhq 6: dqg 77 (Ih dqg zh kdyh dq hvwlpdwh ri mxvw ryhu
5131 Reylrxvo| zh duh grlqj vrphwklqj zurqj khuh1 Wkh sureohp lv lq wkh glvwdqfh xqlwv1 Zh
qhhg wr uhpryh wkh xqlwv ri glvwdqfh wr jhw zhljkwv zklfk duh sxuh qxpehuv1 Zh dovr qhhg
wr gr wklv lq d zd| zklfk jlyhv xv d vhqvleoh dqvzhu1
Wkh vlpsohvw zd| wr gr wklv lv wr fkrrvh d vhw ri zhljkwv zklfk dgg xs wr 41 Dw wkh prphqw
rxu zhljkwv dgg xs wr 313845461 Li doo ri wkh vdpsohv kdg d ydoxh ri 6: (Ih/ rxu hvwlpdwru
zrxog eh 31384546 ri 6: (Ih1 Li doo rxu vdpsohv kdg d ydoxh ri 6: (Ih/ vxuho| rxu hvwlpdwru
vkrxog eh 6: (IhB Wkh rqo| zd| wr jxdudqwhh wklv lv wr fkrrvh zhljkwv zklfk dgg xs wr 41
Wr fdofxodwh zhljkwv zklfk dgg xs wr 4 lv suhww| vwudljkwiruzdug= qg rxw zkdw wkh| gr dgg
xs wr dqg wkhq glylgh hdfk rqh e| wkdw qxpehu1 Rxu hvwlpdwru iru wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq lv
6<19 (Ih/ li zh xvh lqyhuvh glvwdqfh hvwlpdwlrq1
Iljxuh ;18= Lqyhuvh glvwdqfh vtxduhg hvwlpdwlrq zlwk vhdufk udglxv 565 ihhw
61 Krz pdq| vdpsohv vkrxog zh lqfoxgh lq wkh hvwlpdwlrqB Lq wkh suhylrxv fkdswhuv rq
vwdwlvwlfdo dqdo|vhv/ zh kdyh vhhq wkdw wkh pruh vdpsohv zh xvh wkh ehwwhu rxu hvwlpdwru
ehfrphv1 Lv wklv wuxh lq lqyhuvh glvwdqfh w|sh hvwlpdwlrqB Zhoo/ qr1 Wkh pruh vdpsohv
zh lqfoxgh wkh wklqqhu zh kdyh wr vsuhdg wkh dydlodeoh zhljkw1 Uhphpehu wkdw wkh
zhljkwv kdyh wr dgg xs wr rqh/ vr li |rx lqfoxgh pruh vdpsohv wkh zhljkw iru wkrvh kdv
wr frph r wkh forvhu vdpsohv1 Ri frxuvh/ |rx fdq frpshqvdwh iru wklv e| fkdqjlqj wkh
srzhu ri wkh ixqfwlrq |rx xvh1
71 Krz gr zh frpshqvdwh iru luuhjxoduo| vsdfhg ru kljko| foxvwhuhg vdpsolqjB Lq wkh vlpsoh
h{dpsoh deryh/ zh kdyh d julg ri vdpsohv1 Lq rwkhu dssolfdwlrqv vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkh
Zroifdps gdwd zh kdyh vljqlfdqw luuhjxodulwlhv dqg foxvwhulqj lq vdpsoh orfdwlrqv1
Lw lv qdwxudo iru d fdwwoh udqfkhu wr vlqn d qhz zdwhu zhoo lqwr dq dtxlihu zkhuh kh kdv
kdg jrrg suhvvxuh lq wkh sdvw1 Lw lv doprvw lqhylwdeoh lq plqlqj wkdw d jhrorjlvw zloo
vfkhgxoh pruh vdpsolqj lq wkh ulfk duhdv wkdq lq wkh srru rqhv1 Lw lv gl!fxow wr rewdlq
d exgjhw iurp d surmhfw pdqdjhu wr vlqn krohv lq wkh czdvwh* sxuho| wr edodqfh |rxu
vwdwlvwlfv1
81 Krz idu vkrxog zh jr wr lqfoxgh vdpsohv lq rxu hvwlpdwlrq surfhvvB Wklv lv qrw wkh
vdph txhvwlrq dv lq 6 deryh1 Wklv lv d txhvwlrq derxw wkh frqwlqxlw| ri wkh skhqrphqrq
zh duh vwxg|lqj1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li |rx kdyh d frdo vhdp/ |rx pljkw eholhyh wkdw wkhuh lv d
uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq txdolw| ri frdo dw vdpsohv pruh wkdq d nlorphwuh dsduw1 Li |rx kdyh
d jrog uhhi/ rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ |rx zloo eh oxfn| li wkhuh lv dq| uhodwlrqvkls pruh wkdq
433 phwuhv dzd|1 Udlqidoo lv d suhww| frqwlqxrxv skhqrphqrq/ hvshfldoo| ryhu rfhdqv/
exw qrw dw wkh vdph vfdoh ryhu prxqwdlqrxv whuudlq1
91 Vkrxog zh krqrxu wkh vdpsoh ydoxhvB Suhvxpdeo| zh duh qrw +lq wkh uhdo zruog, jrlqj
wr gr doo wkhvh fdofxodwlrqv e| kdqg1 Li zh zlvk wr surgxfh d pds/ zh xvxdoo| od| d
julg ri qrghv ryhu wkh duhd dqg hvwlpdwh wkh ydoxh dw hdfk julg qrgh1 Wkh frqwrxuv duh
wkhq surgxfhg rq wkh edvlv ri wkh julgghg ydoxhv1 D frpsxwhu surjudp ru vsuhdgvkhhw
dssolfdwlrq fdq eh xvhg wr surgxfh wkh julg qrgh hvwlpdwhv1 Krzhyhu/ dw vrph ri wkrvh
qrghv zh zloo douhdg| nqrz wkh ydoxh ehfdxvh zh zloo kdyh d vdpsoh wkhuh1 Zkdw kdsshqv
zkhq _ ehfrphv }hurB Qrqh ri wkh _ w|sh ixqfwlrqv fdq eh fdofxodwhg li _ lv }hur1 Wkh
h{srqhqwldo dqg - _ w|sh ixqfwlrqv fdq eh/ exw zloo qrw jlyh doo ri wkh zhljkw wr
wkh vdpsoh dw wkdw srlqw1 Zh kdyh wr pdnh d vshfldo fdvh iru wkh fdofxodwlrq dw wkh
vdpsoh orfdwlrqv1 Vr zh kdyh wr dqvzhu wklv txhvwlrq1 Rq wkh edvlv ri rxu ixqgdphqwdo
dvvxpswlrqv suhflvh dqg dffxudwh vdpsolqj wkh dqvzhu kdv wr eh |hv1 Zh uhwxuq
wr wklv sureohp lq wkh qh{w ihz fkdswhuv dqg vhh zkdw d surirxqg lpsdfw lw fdq kdyh rq
rxu uhvxowv dqg rxu shufhswlrq ri rxu frqghqfh lq wkh qdo hvwlpdwhv1
surylghg wkdw wkh zhljkwv vxp wr 4 dqg doo ri wkh vdpsohv frph iurp wkh vdph Qrupdo
srsxodwlrq1 Wkh yduldqfh ri A 9 lv jlyhq e|=
h{sdqglqj rxw wkh vtxduh ri wkh eudfnhw surgxfhv d wdeoh ri whupv dv iroorzv=
pxowlso|lqj wkurxjk=
Wklv kruuhqgrxv olvw ri whupv kdv wr eh dyhudjhg ryhu wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq1 Zh fdq
vlpsoli| wklv d elw e| uhphpehulqj wkdw wkh dyhudjh ri doo wkh }v lv > dqg wkdw wkh zhljkwv
dgg xs wr 41 Wklv phdqv wkdw=
dqg
vr wkdw
iru zklfk wkh srsxodwlrq dyhudjh pxvw eh irxqg1 Xvlqj dqrwkhu dojheudlf wulfn/ zh frxog
vkrz wkdw vxp ri doo wkh whupv i j lv dovr 41 Wu| lw li |rx gr qrw eholhyh xv1 Li wklv
lv wuxh wkhq
6 [
[ 6
2
> ' >2
' '
lv wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq } dqg } / vr doo ri wkhvh whupv pxvw eh fryduldqfhv ehwzhhq
hdfk sdlu ri vdpsohv/ j 1 Zkhq ' / ri frxuvh/ wkh fryduldqfh lv htxdo wr wkh yduldqfh
ri wkh } ydoxhv/ j2} 1 Vr zh fdq zulwh wkh yduldqfh ri wkh hvwlpdwru A 9 dv
6 [
[ 6
2
jA 9 ' j
' '
\rx pd| eh zrqghulqj zk| wklv lv vr pxfk pruh frpsolfdwhg wkdq lq Fkdswhu 6/ zkhuh
zh irxqg wkh frqghqfh lqwhuydov iru wkh dulwkphwlf phdq xvlqj }71 Wzr uhdvrqv=
zklfk lv wkh uhvxow zh kdg lq Fkdswhu 6 iru hvwlpdwlqj > iurp wkh vdpsoh phdq/ }71
Lq wklv fdvh/ zh ghqlwho| gr qrw zdqw wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv wr eh xqfruuhodwhg/ vr wkh
fryduldqfh whupv pxvw eh qrq0}hur1 Li zh zdqw wr hydoxdwh krz uholdeoh rxu hvwlpdwh lv
wr sxw frqghqfh olplwv urxqg lw zh duh jrlqj wr kdyh wr eh deoh wr fdofxodwh wkh
fryduldqfhv ehwzhhq sdluv ri vdpsohv1 Zh kdyh dvvxphg wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq
wkh vdpsohv lv d ixqfwlrq ri glvwdqfh1 Zh qrz nqrz zkdw nlqg ri uhodwlrqvkls lw lv wkdw
lqwhuhvwv xv wkh fryduldqfh1 Doo ri wkh deryh dojheudlf j|pqdvwlfv kdyh vhuyhg wr
h{sodlq wr xv wkdw wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq wzr vdpsohv d jlyhq glvwdqfh dsduw vkrxog
ghshqg rqo| rq wkdw glvwdqfh +dqg srvvleo| wkh gluhfwlrq,1 Wklv vrxqgv uhpdundeo| olnh
Nuljh*v edvlf dvvxpswlrq iru klv zhljkwhg dyhudjh whpsodwh dssurdfk/ zklfk zh glvfxvvhg
lq Fkdswhu :1 Zh zloo uhwxuq wr wklv lq wkh qh{w fkdswhu1
;1 Zk| lv rxu qdo pds wrr vprrwkB D zhljkwhg dyhudjh hvwlpdwru fdqqrw surgxfh ydoxhv
zklfk duh odujhu wkdq wkh odujhvw vlqjoh vdpsoh ydoxh ru vpdoohu wkdq wkh vpdoohvw
vdpsoh ydoxh1 Zh nqrz iurp Fkdswhu 6 wkdw pdnlqj dyhudjhv ri vdpsoh ydoxhv uhgxfhv
wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh dqvzhuv1 Wklv phdqv wkdw zhljkwhg dyhudjh hvwlpdwhv
pxvw/ e| ghqlwlrq/ kdyh d vpdoohu udqjh ri srvvleoh ydoxhv wkdw wkh dfwxdo lqglylgxdo
ydoxhv iurp wkh srsxodwlrq1 Wklv lv dqrwkhu lqvwdqfh ri zkdw Nuljh fdoohg wkh uhjuhvvlrq
hhfw edfn lq wkh 4<83v1 Iru pdsslqj sxusrvhv/ zh jhw wkh rssrvlwh hhfw wr wkdw zkhq
sodqqlqj plqlqj eorfnv= d zhljkwhg dyhudjh zloo whqg wr xqghu0hvwlpdwh kljk ydoxhv
dqg ryhu0hvwlpdwh orz ydoxhv zkhq xvhg wr suhglfw ydoxhv dw csrlqw* orfdwlrqv1 Nuljh*v
uhjuhvvlrq hhfw zdv glvfxvvhg eulh | lq Fkdswhu : dqg zloo eh glvfxvvhg lq pruh ghwdlo
lq Fkdswhu 441 Vlpxodwlrq lv rqh zd| ri txdqwli|lqj mxvw krz vprrwk wkh suhglfwhg
pdsv duh1
<1 Zkdw kdsshqv li rxu vdpsoh gdwd lv qrw QrupdoB Zh kdyh vhhq lq Fkdswhu 7 wkdw xvlqj
dulwkphwlf phdq fdofxodwlrqv zlwk kljko| vnhzhg gdwd fdq surgxfh vhulrxvo| huurqhrxv
uhvxowv1 Lv lw/ wkhuhiruh/ dw doo vhqvleoh wr xvh d zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri vdpsoh ydoxhv li wkh
gdwd lv iurp d kljko| vnhzhg glvwulexwlrq zkhwkhu srvlwlyho| ru qhjdwlyho| vnhzhgB Zh
zloo glvfxvv wklv sureohp dw juhdwhu ohqjwk lq Fkdswhu 451
431 Zkdw kdsshqv li wkhuh lv d vwurqj wuhqg lq wkh ydoxhvB Lq wklv frqwh{w/ d wuhqg ru
guliw lv wdnhq wr phdq d frqvlvwhqw fkdqjh lq wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri wkh skhqrphqrq
dv zh pryh dfurvv wkh vwxg| duhd1 Wklv lv d wuhqg dv glvfxvvhg lq wkh suhylrxv fkdswhu1
D zhljkwhg dyhudjh hvwlpdwru zloo rqo| eh hhfwlyh lq wkh suhvhqfh ri wuhqg li=
441 Krz gr zh hvwlpdwh dyhudjh ydoxhv ryhu duhdv ru yroxphvB Wklv srlqw lv rqo| pdgh khuh
wr vxjjhvw lwv uhohydqfh wr rxu ruljlqdo sureohp1 Lq plqlqj dssolfdwlrqv/ lq sduwlfxodu/
ydoxhv duh jhqhudoo| uhtxluhg iru plqlqj eorfnv ru vwrslqj duhdv1 Uduho| lv d plqh sodqqhg
rq wkh edvlv ri csrlqw* ydoxhv1 Dyhudjh ydoxhv ryhu dq duhd ru yroxph fdq eh surgxfhg e|
hvwlpdwlqj d julg ri srlqw ydoxhv zlwklq wkh duhd dqg dyhudjlqj wkh uhvxowlqj hvwlpdwhv1
Zh zloo vhh lq Fkdswhu 44 wkdw wkhuh duh vlpsohu dqg txlfnhu phwkrgv wr rewdlq d gluhfw
hvwlpdwh iru wkh dyhudjh ryhu d yroxph ru duhd1
Iru wklv looxvwudwlrq zh zlvk wr hvwlpdwh wkh julg srlqw zklfk kdv qrw ehhq guloohg dqg lv
odehoohg A 1 Zh kdyh 8 srlqwv lq wkh lpphgldwh qhljkerxukrrg1 Zh pljkw zdqw wr lqfoxgh wkh
vdpsoh 633 phwuhv wr wkh hdvw dqg wkdw 633 phwuhv wr wkh qruwk wr oo lq wkh jdsv1
A 9 ' 2DDfD PM
vdpsoh _ *_2 } }
4 545 3133335557< 314584 58195 6153839
5 483 31333377777 3157<< 58194 916<<<7
6 483 31333377777 3157<< 591;3 919<:65
7 545 3133335557< 314584 561:9 51<:56;
8 633 31333344444 313958 56187 417:458
9 545 3133335557< 314584 541;9 51:679<
: 633 31333344444 313958 56174 4179645
vxpv= 313334::;9 413334 571<77 PM
Wklv pds lv lqwxlwlyho| xqdsshdolqj1 Lw orrnv ulglfxorxv1 Wkh ryhuodsslqj ri wkh vhdufk cflufohv*
fdq eh vhhq fohduo| dv zh pryh dfurvv dqg grzq wkh julg ri hvwlpdwhg srlqwv1
D vroxwlrq wr wklv zrxog eh wr zlghq wkh vhdufk udglxv1 Iljxuh ;143 vkrzv wkh uhvxow zkhq
zh xvh d vhdufk udglxv ri 583 phwuhv1 Wkh prrq fudwhu hhfw vhhpv wr kdyh glvdsshduhg/ exw
vr kdv prvw ri wkh yduldwlrq lq wkh gdwd1 Zh fdq vhh fohduo| zkhuh wkh dojrulwkp lv vwuxjjolqj
wr krqrxu lqglylgxdo gdwd srlqwv zklfk duh txlwh lqfrqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh gudfrqldq zhljkwhg
dyhudjh lq wkh vdph duhd1
Iurp wkh vxeolph wr wkh hyhq pruh ulglfxorxv/ zh uhgxfhg wkh vhdufk udglxv wr 433 phwuhv
+iru uhdvrqv zklfk zloo ehfrph sodlq lq wkh qh{w fkdswhu,1 Iljxuh ;144 vkrzv wkh glvdvwurxv
uhvxow ri wkdw h{huflvh1
Lw zrxog vhhp/ edvlfdoo|/ wkdw lqyhuvh glvwdqfh vtxduhg lv qrw wkh prvw hhfwlyh zd| wr
pds wklv sduwlfxodu vhw ri vdpsoh gdwd1 Zh frxog vshqg pdq| kdss| krxuv wu|lqj glhuhqw
glvwdqfh ixqfwlrqv dqg vhdufk udgll1
Iljxuh ;144= lurq ruh/ lqyhuvh glvwdqfh vtxduhg/ vhdufk udglxv 433 phwuhv
Wkh srlqw ri lqwhuhvw lq wklv looxvwudwlrq lv dw orqjlwxgh :519/ odwlwxgh 6<1;1 Glvwdqfhv duh
fdofxodwhg e| S|wkdjrudv* wkhruhp1
Wkh hvwlpdwhg ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq lv doprvw 4/386 vfdoorsv lq wrwdo1 Qrwlfh wkdw
ryhu kdoi ri wklv ydoxh frphv iurp d vlqjoh vdpsoh qxpehu 91 Wklv vdpsoh lv wkh forvhvw/ exw
lw dovr kdv d yhu| kljk ydoxh dw doprvw wzlfh wkdw ri wkh qh{w kljkhvw vdpsoh ydoxh lq wklv duhd
;148 Lqyhuvh glvwdqfh zlwk dq lvrwurslf vhdufk udglxv ghvljqhg wr slfn xs dq dyhudjh ri 53
vdpsohv>
;149 Lqyhuvh glvwdqfh zlwk wkh vdph vhdufk udglxv lq wkh qruwkzhvw gluhfwlrq dqg rqh0txduwhu
ri wkh glvwdqfh lq wkh qruwkhdvw gluhfwlrq1 Zhljkwv duh vfdohg e| wkh uhodwlyh dqlvrwurs|1
Rq d qrwh ri fdxwlrq/ pdq| pdsslqj sdfndjhv rhu dojrulwkpv zlwk dqlvrwurslf vhdufk hoolsvhv1
Pdnh vxuh wkdw wkh sdfndjh dfwxdoo| fkdqjhv wkh zhljkwlqj idfwruv zlwk gluhfwlrq wrr1 Vrph
sdfndjhv xvh dq dqlvrwurslf vhdufk exw vwloo zhljkw d vdpsoh/ vd|/ 83 p dzd| wkh vdph lq doo
gluhfwlrqv1
;181 H{huflvhv
41 Hvwlpdwh dq| rqh ri wkh plvvlqj eruhkroh julg qrghv lq wkh frdo surmhfw gdwd iru=
41 fdorulf ydoxh
51 wklfnqhvv
61 hohydwlrq
71 vxoskxu ydoxh
51 Hvwlpdwh dq| fkrvhq orfdwlrq lq wkh jrog surmhfw duhd xvlqj wkh jdvd gdwd vhw1 Frpphqw
rq wkh vhqvlelolw| ri |rxu hvwlpdwhv1
61 Xvlqj wkh yhoyhw ohdi gdwd/ zklfk lv vdpsohg rq d julg/ uhpryh dq| gdwd srlqw dqg
hvwlpdwh wkh ydoxh iurp lwv qhljkerxulqj vdpsohv1 Krz forvh glg |rx jhwB
71 Dffxpxodwlrq ydoxhv +fpj2w, duh dydlodeoh dw yh orfdwlrqv zlwklq d vwxg| duhd1 Wkh
wdeoh ehorz vkrzv wkh orfdwlrqv dqg ydoxh ri hdfk ri wkh yh vdpsohv1 Hvwlpdwh wkh
ydoxh dw wkh orfdwlrq ~58 p+f,/ 498 p+t ,j1
Iljxuh ;149= lqyhuvh glvwdqfh lqwhusrodwlrq/ xvlqj dqlvrwurslf vhdufk dqg zhljkwlqj
idfwruv
f t Wklfnqhvv ri
fr0ruglqdwh fr0ruglqdwh frdo vhdp
+p, +p, +p,
9:< 44:8 61<
89; 576 917
;9< 674 81;
498< 467: 918
47;; 6;7 815
91 Irxu eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq d sduwlfxodu duhd zlwklq d pxowl0plqhudo vxosklgh
ghsrvlw1 Wkh wdeoh ehorz olvwv wkh vloyhu ydoxhv hqfrxqwhuhg lq wkhvh eruhkrohv/ lq nj2wrq1
Lw lv uhtxluhg wr hvwlpdwh wkh vloyhu ydoxh dw wkh orfdwlrq i:83/533j
f t Ydoxh
9651:3 4<6197 64153
9;4156 ;51;< 6<1<6
<4<148 484133 481;3
:6;175 46<1:< 4:71<9
:1 Eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq d vhglphqwdu| lurq ruh ghsrvlw1 Zh zlvk wr hvwlpdwh wkh
olnho| ydoxh dw dq +dv |hw, xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq dw f@583/ t @4831
f t (Ih
5;8 443 6816
593 448 6615
668 4:3 5:17
573 4;8 6315
658 4<8 661<
5<3 563 6<1<
<1 Ydoxhv lq d }lqf ghsrvlw lq Qdpleld kdyh ehhq vkrzq wr eh orjqrupdoo| glvwulexwhg1
Hvwlpdwh wkh ydoxh dw wkh orfdwlrq f@533/ t @5331 Frpphqw rq wkh xvhixoqhvv ri d
zhljkwhg dyhudjh hvwlpdwru lq wkh frqwh{w ri vnhzhg gdwd1
f t (]q
538 543 41;
543 548 515
4;8 4:3 81;
573 4;8 ;19
558 4<8 <19
553 563 914
431 D w|slfdo Zlwv jrog uhhi kdv d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zkhq zh frqvlghu wkh orjdulwkp ri
dffxpxodwlrq ydoxh1 Zh qhhg wr qg dq hvwlpdwru iru wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh dffxpxodwlrq
dw wkh orfdwlrq f@4<33/ t @;333 xvlqj wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv1
f t fpj2w
4;94 :<;7 99:
4;<; :<3< <486
4<8< ;3<5 7858
4<9: :<3: 648
534: :<;6 9:;
Krz zrxog |rx jhw dq hvwlpdwh ri wkh dffxpxodwlrq ydoxh dw wklv orfdwlrqB
6
[
'
'
wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh uhvxowlqj hvwlpdwru lv xqeldvvhg1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq
nqrzq dqg xqnqrzq ydoxhv ghshqgv rq wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkhlu orfdwlrqv dqg/ srvvleo|/
wkh gluhfwlrq ehwzhhq wkhp1 Zh xvhg d vlpsoh vlpxodwhg h{dpsoh wr looxvwudwh krz dq lq0
yhuvh glvwdqfh hvwlpdwru lv surgxfhg dqg glvfxvvhg wkh txhvwlrqv zklfk durvh zkhq vxfk dq
hvwlpdwru zdv frqvlghuhg1 Zh surgxfhg d olvw ri 44 vxfk txhvwlrqv/ doo ri zklfk duh lpsruwdqw
exw vrph pruh lpphgldwho| uhohydqw1
Lq prvw ri wkh suhylrxv fkdswhuv lq wklv errn/ zh kdyh surgxfhg hvwlpdwhv iru xqnqrzq
srsxodwlrq sdudphwhuv ri rqh nlqg ru dqrwkhu1 Lq doprvw doo ri wkrvh fdvhv zh kdyh ehhq
deoh wr txdqwli| krz cuholdeoh* wkh hvwlpdwh lv dv d uh hfwlrq ri zkdw lv dfwxdoo| jrlqj rq lq
wkh srsxodwlrq1 Zh kdyh vhhq wkdw lw lv qrw hqrxjk wr surgxfh dq hvwlpdwh zh pxvw dovr
surylgh frqghqfh ohyhov wr dwwdfk wr wkh hvwlpdwlrq surfhvv1 Li zh fdq dqvzhu txhvwlrq : lq
rxu olvw krz uholdeoh lv wkh hvwlpdwh zkhq zh kdyh lwB wkhq zh frxog dqvzhu pdq| ri wkh
txhvwlrqv srvhg lq Fkdswhu ;1 Iru h{dpsoh/ zh frxog qg wkh frqghqfh olplwv iru vlpsoh
lqyhuvh glvwdqfh dqg frpsduh wkhp wr wkrvh iru lqyhuvh glvwdqfh vtxduhg1 Suhvxpdeo|/ wkh
ehwwhu hvwlpdwlrq phwkrg zrxog eh wkh rqh zklfk jlyhv wkh cqduurzhvw* frqghqfh lqwhuydov1
Zh kdyh vhhq lq Fkdswhu ; wkdw wkh surgxfwlrq ri frqghqfh lqwhuydov lq d qrq0wulyldo
sureohp zkhq zh kdyh uhodwlrqvklsv ehwzhhq wkh nqrzq dqg wkh xqnqrzq ydoxhv1 Wkh vwdq0
gdug ghyldwlrq iru wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru ru vwdqgdug huuru dv lw lv riwhq fdoohg lv d
ixqfwlrq ri doo ri wkh furvv0fryduldqfh ydoxhv ehwzhhq hyhu| sdlu ri vdpsohv1 Rxu sureohp lv
wzrirog=
krz gr zh hvwlpdwh wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq d nqrzq vdpsoh dqg wkh xqnqrzq ydoxhB
Zh qhhg wr qg dq hvwlpdwh iru wkh ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq rq wkh julg1 ]rrplqj lq
rq wkh sureohp zh zrxog suredeo| xvh wkh forvhvw vhyhq vdpsohv wr surgxfh vxfk dq hvwlpdwh1
wkh huuru zh pdnh lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq lv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh hvwlpdwru dqg wkh
dfwxdo ydoxh
wklv lv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq d zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh vdpsohv dqg wkh dfwxdo ydoxh
wklv lv wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh lqglylgxdo glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg wkh
xqnqrzq ydoxh
Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkh huuru rq d zhljkwhg dyhudjh lv vlpso| wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh lqglylgxdo
huuruv1 Li zh fdq txdqwli| rqh ri wkhvh vlpsoh glhuhqfhv/ zh fdq edj wkh orw1
Ohw xv frqvlghu mxvw wkh uvw vdpsoh dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1 Wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq
wkhvh wzr lv=
} A
Iurp wkhvh vdpsohv zh frxog fdofxodwh wkh dyhudjh glhuhqfh dqg hvwlpdwh wkh vwdqgdug gh0
yldwlrq ri wkh glhuhqfhv=
[
}7gl ' E} }
ec.
zkhuh ec. lv wkh qxpehu ri sdluv irxqg dw d glvwdqfh ri 474 ihhw lq wkh QH gluhfwlrq dqg
} }
lv wkh glhuhqfh lq ydoxh ehwzhhq wkh wzr vdpsohv irxqg lq hdfk sdlu1 Zh zrxog hvwlpdwh wkh
yduldqfh ri wkh glhuhqfhv xvlqj
[
r2gl ' E} } }7gl 2
ec.
Wkdw lv/ li rxu vdpsohv doo frph iurp wkh vdph xqghuo|lqj srsxodwlrq wkh wuxh +srsxodwlrq,
dyhudjh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq dq| wzr vdpsohv lv }hur/ e| ghqlwlrq1 >gl zloo rqo| eh qrq0}hur li
wkh ch{shfwhg* ydoxh ri wkh vdpsohv fkdqjhv iurp sodfh wr sodfh lq wkh vwxg| duhd1 Iru h{dpsoh/
li wkhuh zhuh d wuhqg ru cguliw* lq ydoxhv ryhu wkh duhd/ wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh zrxog fkdqjh dqg
wkh phdq glhuhqfh zrxog qrw +qhfhvvdulo|, eh }hur1 Rq wkh dvvxpswlrq ri qr wuhqg/ }7gl lv
dq hvwlpdwh ri }hur1 Vhhpv d elw ri d zdvwh ri wlph wr dfwxdoo| fdofxodwh dq hvwlpdwh iru }hur$
Li zh dffhsw wkh dvvxpswlrq ri qr wuhqg iru wkh prphqw/ wkhq
>gl ' f
dqg
[
r2gl ' E} } >gl 2
ec.
[
' E} } 2
ec.
Zklfk lv vlpso| wkh dyhudjh ri wkh vtxduhv ri wkh glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv1
Qrwlfh wkdw zh gr qrw orvh wkh xvxdo 4 ghjuhh ri iuhhgrp/ ehfdxvh zh duh qrw hvwlpdwlqj wkh
phdq iurp wkh vdpsohv1 Zh zloo vhh odwhu lq wklv fkdswhu +fi1 Zroifdps dtxlihu vhfwlrq, zkdw
kdsshqv zkhq rxu dvvxpswlrq rq qr wuhqg lv zurqj1
Iru wkh glvwdqfh dqg gluhfwlrq lq txhvwlrq/ zh zrxog jhw=
; 2 n E S H2 n E H D2 n E . e 2 n E H .2 <
A
A E D . A
A
A
A nE . S2 n Ee e22 n E . e22 n E S D2 n E D D2 A A
A
A
A
A 2 2 2 2 2 A
A
A
? nEe2 ef n E D b n E D H n E D . n E b b A @
r2ec. ' nE H b2 n E . .2 n E e S2 n E f 2 n E b .2
A A
A
A
A nE . e2 n E S .2 n E S2 n Ee S2 n E . ef2 A A
A
A
A 2 2 2 2 2 A
A
A
A nE S n E 2 D n E2b 2b n E H n E D e A
A
= 2 >
nE f 2H
; <
? 22 n 22 n 2 n S2 n 2 n 2 n 2 n D2 n 2 n f2 @
' n22 n e2 n 2 n 22 n f2 n 2 n f2 n 22 n 2 n 22
= >
ne2 n 2 n 2 n D2 n 2 n 2 n 2 n f2 n D2 n 2 n 22
2e
' ' ...e
vr wkdw
Wr vxppdulvh= wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wzr ydoxhv zklfk kdyh orfdwlrqv 474 ihhw dsduw lq
d qruwkhdvw2vrxwkzhvw gluhfwlrq frphv iurp d srsxodwlrq ri vlplodu glhuhqfhv zlwk d wuxh
zkhuh |f2Dc lv wkh Vwxghqw | ydoxh uhdg iurp wdeoh 7 zlwk 64 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Qrz } ' ef/
vr
dqg rxu <8( frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru wkh wuxh ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq zrxog eh ehwzhhq
6716 dqg 781: (Ih1
Zh uhshdw wklv fdofxodwlrq iru dv pdq| glhuhqw ydoxhv ri dv wkh vdpsoh gdwd zloo vxssruw1
Wkh uhvxowv fdq eh wdexodwhg ru glvsod|hg lq d judsk1 Ehiruh zh gr wkdw/ krzhyhu/ d olwwoh
klvwrulfdo edfnjurxqg1 Wklv w|sh ri dssurdfk zdv lqyhvwljdwhg e| pdq| glhuhqw zrunhuv lq
zlgho| glhuhqw hogv ri dssolfdwlrq iurp Jdqglq lq Uxvvld vwxg|lqj phwhrurorj| wr Pdwìuq
lq Vzhghq dsso|lqj vlplodu phwkrgv wr iruhvwu| sureohpv1 Wkhuh lv d jrrg sdshu e| Qrho
Fuhvvlh +4<<3/ Pdwkhpdwlfdo Jhrorj|, zklfk glvfxvvhv wkh ruljlqv ri wkh whfkqltxhv zklfk zh
zloo fryhu lq wkh uhvw ri wklv errn1
Zh zloo vhh lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq rqh ri wkh uhdvrqv wklv zdv sursrvhg1 Jhqhudoo|/ xvlqj kdoi wkh
yduldqfh lqvwhdg ri wkh zkroh yduldqfh vlpsolhv wkh pdwkhpdwlfv d olwwoh1 Lw lv +lqwxlwlyho|,
pruh sohdvlqj wr kdyh vrph whupv zklfk duh 5 wkdq wr kdyh orwv ri whupv zklfk duh 3181
Wklv vhpl0yduldqfh lv fdofxodwhg iru hdfk gluhfwlrq dqg hdfk glvwdqfh dqg wkh uhvxowv duh
wdexodwhg iru rxu h{dpsoh lq Wdeoh <141
Lq Fkdswhu ;/ zh vdz wkdw wkh ydoxhv ri wkh vdpsohv lq wklv vlpsolvwlf h{dpsoh ydu| pxfk
idvwhu lq wkh qruwk2vrxwk gluhfwlrq wkdq wkh| gr lq wkh hdvw2zhvw gluhfwlrq1 Zh qrz kdyh d
txdqwlwdwlyh phdvxuh ri wkdw lq d vhpl0yduldqfh ri 8168 (Ih2 qruwk2vrxwk dqg rqo| 4179 (Ih2
lq wkh hdvw2zhvw gluhfwlrq1 Wklv lv dq lqglfdwlrq ri krz dqlvrwurslf wkh frqwlqxlw| lv1 Lq wkh
surfhvv ri wu|lqj wr dqvzhu txhvwlrq :/ zh vhhp wr kdyh frph xs zlwk wkh ehjlqqlqjv ri dq
dqvzhu wr txhvwlrq 51
Wklv lv d yhu| vpdoo dqg uhjxodu h{dpsoh dqg douhdg| zh kdyh d idluo| frpsoh{ wdeoh ri
uhvxowv wr lqwhusuhw1 Pdwkhurq vxjjhvwhg wkdw wkh hdvlhvw zd| wr lqwhusuhw wkh uhvxowv zdv wr
sorw wkhp dv d judsk zlwk wkh vhpl0yduldqfh rq wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv dqg wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh
vdpsohv rq wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv1 Wkh xqlwv ri wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv zloo eh wkh vtxduh ri zkdwhyhu
xqlwv |rxu ruljlqdo gdwd srvvhvv1 Gluhfwlrqv duh lqglfdwhg e| glhuhqw v|perov ru glhuhqw
frorxuv1 Ehfdxvh zh dvvxph suhflvh dqg dffxudwh vdpsolqj +vlf,/ zh kdyh dq dgghg srlqw
rq rxu judsk dw }hur rq erwk d{hv1 Wkdw lv/ wkhuh lv qr glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wzr vdpsohv dw
wkh vdph orfdwlrq1 Vlqfh wklv lv d judsk ri wkh vhpl0yduldqfh lw lv jhqhudoo| uhihuuhg wr dv d
vhpl0ydulrjudp1 Lq uhfhqw wlphv/ zlwk wkh vsuhdg ri jhrvwdwlvwlfv/ dxwkruv lqfuhdvlqjo| uhihu
Ef ' f
E ' f n R zkhq : f
Ef ' f
E ' f n Rk zkhq : f
dqg f k 2
zkhuh lv djdlq wkh ydoxh rq wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp d{lv dqg wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr
srlqwv ri lqwhuhvw1 Dgghg wr wkh sdudphwhu R uhsuhvhqwlqj wkh vorsh ri wkh olqh dqg f wkh
qxjjhw hhfw rq wkh d{lv/ zh kdyh lqwurgxfhg k iru wkh srzhu wr zklfk glvwdqfh lv udlvhg1
Iru pdwkhpdwlfdo uhdvrqv/ wklv srzhu fdq rqo| wdnh ydoxhv lq wkh udqjh f k 21 Wkh
dffrpsdq|lqj gldjudp vkrzv wzr jhqhudolvhg olqhdu prghov zlwk k ' fD dqg k ' D iru
looxvwudwlrq1
Ef ' f q r
E ' f n 2 @ 2 @ zkhq f @
E ' f n zkhq : @
zkhuh lv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp dqg wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr srlqwv ri lqwhuhvw1 Wkh
sdudphwhu @ uhsuhvhqwv wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp1 Zh jhqhudoo| lqwhusuhw
wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh dv wkdw glvwdqfh eh|rqg zklfk sdluv ri vdpsoh ydoxhv duh xquhodwhg1
lv wkh vloo ri wkh Vskhulfdo frpsrqhqw dqg f wkh qxjjhw hhfw rq wkh d{lv1 \rx zloo qrwh
wkdw wkh qdo khljkw ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho lv f n 1
Xqolnh wkh suhylrxv wzr prghov/ wkhuh duh prglfdwlrqv zklfk |rx fdq pdnh wr wkh vwdqgdug
Vskhulfdo prgho1 Wkhuh duh riwhq fdvhv zkhuh wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp judsk uhdfkhv d ghqlwh vloo*
exw grhv qrw txlwh pdwfk wkh vkdsh ri d vlqjoh Vskhulfdo prgho1 Lq wklv fdvh |rx pd| pl{
Vskhulfdo frpsrqhqwv zlwk glhuhqw udqjhv ri lq xhqfh dqg2ru vloo ydoxhv lq rughu wr dfklhyh
wkh fruuhfw vkdsh1 Uhphpehu wkdw/ li |rx kdyh +vd|, wkuhh frpsrqhqw Vskhulfdov/ wkh qdo
khljkw ri wkh judsk zloo eh f n n 2 n 1
Wkh irupxod iru vxfk d prgho lv vlpso| wkh frpelqdwlrq ri ruglqdu| Vskhulfdo prghov/
uhphpehulqj wr vwrs hdfk rqh dv lw uhdfkhv lwv udqjh ri lq xhqfh=
Ef ' f q r q r
E ' f n 2 @ 2 @ n 2 2 @2 2 @ zkhq f @
q r 2
E ' f n n 2 2 @2 2 @ zkhq @ @2
2
E ' f n n 2 zkhq : @2
Ef ' f
E ' f n i TE @ zkhq : f
zkhuh lv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp dqg wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr srlqwv ri lqwhuhvw1 Wkh
sdudphwhu @ uhsuhvhqwv wkh vr0fdoohg udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp/ wkh vloo ri
wkh H{srqhqwldo frpsrqhqw dqg f wkh qxjjhw hhfw rq wkh d{lv1 \rx zloo qrwh wkdw wkh
Wkh irupxod iru wklv fxuyh lv vlplodu wr wkdw iru d fxpxodwlyh Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq khqfh
wkh qdph Jdxvvldq lw grhv qrw lpso| wkdw wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv pxvw eh Qrupdo=
Ef ' f q r
2
E ' f n i TE @2 zkhq : f
zkhuh lv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp dqg wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr srlqwv ri lqwhuhvw1 Wkh
sdudphwhu @ uhsuhvhqwv wkh vr0fdoohg udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp/ wkh vloo
ri wkh Jdxvvldq frpsrqhqw dqg f wkh qxjjhw hhfw rq wkh d{lv1 \rx zloo qrwh wkdw wkh
dv|pswrwlf khljkw ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho lv f n 1 \rx pd| dovr qrwh wkdw/ dowkrxjk
sdudphwhu @ lv uhihuuhg wr dv wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh/ lw lv qrw srvvleoh wr lqwhusuhw lv lq wkh
vdph zd| dv iru wkh Vskhulfdo prgho1 Wklv glvwdqfh @ lv qrw wkh glvwdqfh dw zklfk vdpsohv
ehfrph lqghshqghqw ri rqhs dqrwkhu1 Lq idfw/ wkh Jdxvvldq prgho uhdfkhv derxw wzr0wklugv
ri lwv khljkw dw d glvwdqfh @/ dqg pxvw jr wr irxu ru yh wlphv wklv glvwdqfh wr frph forvh
wr lwv dv|pswrwlf vloo1
zkhuh lv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp dqg wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr srlqwv ri lqwhuhvw1 Wkh
sdudphwhu @ uhsuhvhqwv wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp/ wkh vloo ri wkh Vskhulfdo
frpsrqhqw1 Wkh sdudphwhu 1 lv wkh f|foh lqwhuydo +glvwdqfh,/ l uhsuhvhqwv wkh vr0fdoohg ghfd|
ru gdpslqj sdudphwhu ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp/ es wkh vloo ri wkh Kroh Hhfw frpsrqhqw dqg f
wkh qxjjhw hhfw rq wkh d{lv1 \rx zloo qrwh wkdw wkh dv|pswrwlf khljkw ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho lv f n n es 1
dqg vxp wkh whupv1 Wklv lv dqdorjrxv wr exw qrw wkh vdph dv wkh 2 jrrgqhvv ri w whvw/
hyhq doorzlqj iru wkh zhljkwlqj e| wkh qxpehu ri sdluv1 Wklv vwdwlvwlf doorzv eljjhu ghyldwlrqv
ehwzhhq wkh h{shulphqwdo dqg prgho vhpl0ydulrjudp dv wkh prgho ehfrphv kljkhu1 Lw ghpdqgv
forvhu wwlqj dw wkh orzhu ohyhov xvxdoo| wkh orzhu glvwdqfhv wkdq dw kljkhu rqhv1 Lw dovr
ghpdqgv ehwwhu wwlqj zkhuh |rx kdyh pruh sdluv ri vdpsohv lq d srlqw1 Wkh w lv gluhfwo|
zhljkwhg e| wkh qxpehu ri sdluv ri vdpsohv1
Lq wkh dffrpsdq|lqj vriwzduh/ |rx zloo qg wkdw wklv vwdwlvwlf kdv ehhq prglhg voljkwo|1
Wkh dfwxdo pdjqlwxgh ri wkh vwdwlvwlf ghshqgv rq wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri sdluv ri vdpsohv irxqg
gxulqj wkh fdofxodwlrq1 Qrz/ qrw doo vdpsohv duh sdluhg wkh vdph qxpehu ri wlphv lq doo
glhuhqw gluhfwlrqv1 Wklv phdqv wkdw d Fuhvvlh vwdwlvwlf ri d fhuwdlq vl}h lq rqh gluhfwlrq lv qrw
qhfhvvdulo| htxlydohqw wr wkh vdph ydoxh lq dqrwkhu gluhfwlrq1 Wr dgmxvw iru wklv/ zh vxjjhvw d
prglfdwlrq wr uhpryh wkh vfdolqj e| wrwdo qxpehu ri sdluv1 Vlpso|=
2
[ 9E E
S
E
glylglqj wkurxjk e| wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri sdluv ri vdpsohv lq wkdw sduwlfxodu vhpl0ydulrjudp
w1
Wkhuh grhv qrw vhhp wr eh dq| lqglfdwlrq lq wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo olwhudwxuh wkdw pljkw eh
pruh dssursuldwh khuh/ vlqfh zh kdyh wr xvh }7 ru vrph rwkhu hvwlpdwru wr hvwlpdwh wkh srs0
xodwlrq dyhudjh/ >1 Wklv vkruwfrplqj lq wkh olwhudwxuh kdv ehhq srlqwhg rxw udwkhu irufhixoo|
e| Gu Mdq Phunv lq vrph prghudwho| lqwhpshudwh duwlfohv1
Ef ' f
Wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh qxjjhw hhfw wkhq ehfrphv rqh ri wkh sk|vlfdo qdwxuh ri wkh skh0
qrphqrq ehlqj phdvxuhg1 Wkh whup qxjjhw hhfw +ru qxjjhw yduldqfh, zdv frlqhg rq wkh
edvlv ri wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri jrog plqhudolvdwlrq1 Qr pdwwhu krz forvh wkh vdpsohv jhw/ wkhuh
zloo eh odujh glhuhqfhv lq ydoxh ehwzhhq wkh vdpsohv ehfdxvh ri wkh cqxjjhw|* rffxuuhqfh ri
wkh jrog1 Zh kdyh wr jhw grzq wr wkh vfdoh ri d jrog qxjjhw wr kdyh ydoxhv zklfk duh wkh vdph1
Dq| ixuwkhu dsduw wkdq wkh vl}h ri d qxjjhw dqg rqh vdpsoh lv lqvlgh d qxjjhw dqg zklovw wkh
rwkhu lv rxwvlgh dqg wkh ydoxhv duh yhu| glhuhqw1
Li zh dffhsw wkdw wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp wdnhv wkh ydoxh }hur dw }hur glvwdqfh/ wkhq wkh qxjjhw
hhfw uhsuhvhqwv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wzr vdpsohv uljkw qh{w wr rqh dqrwkhu frqwljxrxv
txdgudwv/ wzr kdoyhv ri d eruhkroh fruh/ vk vzlpplqj wrjhwkhu dqg vr rq1 Li zh gr qrw dffhsw
}hur dw }hur wkhq zkdw zh duh edvlfdoo| vd|lqj lv wkdw zh gr qrw eholhyh wkh gdwd ydoxhv1 Li
wkh qxjjhw hhfw lv wuhdwhg dv dq lqwhufhsw rq wkh d{lv/ vr wkdw
Ef ' f
wklv lpsolhv wkdw wzr vdpsohv wdnhq dw wkh vdph orfdwlrq frxog kdyh d yduldqfh ehwzhhq wkhp
ri 2f 1 Zh zloo vhh lq wkh qh{w fkdswhu wkh lpsdfw wkdw wkhvh wzr glhuhqw dvvxpswlrqv kdyh
rq rxu dqdo|vlv1
Hpeduudvvlqj txhvwlrq wr dvn |rxu vriwzduh yhqgru= zkdw grhv |rxu sdfndjh gr zlwk
wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp dw }hur glvwdqfhB Vrph vriwzduh doorzv wkh xvhu wr w d vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho exw wkhq xvhv wkh fryduldqfh ixqfwlrq iru wkh hvwlpdwlrq surfhvv1 \rx fdq od| jrrg
rggv wkdw/ li |rxu sdfndjh grhv wklv/ wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho grhv qrw jr wkurxjk }hur dw
}hur glvwdqfh1
Zh looxvwudwh vrph ri wkh sureohpv zlwk wwlqj vhpl0ydulrjudp prghov zlwk d vlpsoh h{dpsoh
zklfk dsshduhg lq Sudfwlfdo Jhrvwdwlvwlfv 4<:<1 D wxqqho zdv gulyhq krul}rqwdoo| lqwr d edvh
phwdo vxosklgh ghsrvlw lq Vrxwkhuq Diulfd1 Vdpsohv zhuh fklsshg iurp wkh zdoov ri wkh gulyh
Iljxuh <1;= vskhulfdo prgho iru vloyhu ydoxhv/ Fuhvvlh vwdwlvwlf 314685
Iljxuhv <1:/ <1; dqg <1< vkrz wwhg prghov ri wkh h{srqhqwldo/ vskhulfdo dqg sdgglqjwrq pl{
ydulhw|1 Lq doo wkuhh fdvhv wkhuh duh vrph ghvludeoh dqg vrph qrw vr ghvludeoh fkdudfwhulvwlfv1
Iljxuh <1<= sdgglqjwrq pl{ prgho iru vloyhu ydoxhv/ Fuhvvlh vwdwlvwlf 31477<
9 E
483 31;6:6
933 7165:3
zkhuh f lv wkh qxjjhw hhfw/ R wkh vorsh ri wkh fxuyh dqg k wkh srzhu iru wkh glvwdqfh1
Ehfdxvh ri pdwkhpdwlfdo uhvwulfwlrqv/ k pxvw kdyh d ydoxh ehwzhhq }hur dqg 51 Iurp rxu
h{shulphqwdo srlqwv/ zh qhhg=
Lq rxu fdvh zh kdyh dq dssduhqw }hur qxjjhw hhfw/ exw zh zloo ohdyh lw lq khuh iru jhqhudolw|1
Li zh uhzulwh wklv dv=
Zh hvwlpdwh rxu qxjjhw hhfw lq wklv fdvh wr eh }hur1 Wklv uhgxfhv wkh htxdwlrqv wr=
Wkhvh ydoxhv fdq eh vxevwlwxwhg edfn lqwr wkh prgho htxdwlrq wr jlyh xv d cprgho* ydoxh iru
hdfk h{shulphqwdo srlqw rq wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp judsk1 Wkh Fuhvvlh jrrgqhvv ri w vwdwlvwlf
f ' f
R ' fffS
k ' 2D
Wkh qdo Fuhvvlh fdofxodwlrq lv vkrzq lq Wdeoh <17 dqg wkh wwhg prgho dorqj zlwk wkh h{shu0
lphqwdo vhpl0ydulrjudp lq Iljxuh <1441
Iljxuh <148= H{shulphqwdo vhpl0ydulrjudpv iru srwhqwlrphwulf ohyho/ Zroifdps gdwd +vkdghg,
[ uhsuhvhqwv wkh uvw fr0ruglqdwh +ohiw0uljkw rq pdsv,/ dqg \ wkh vhfrqg +erwwrp0wrs,1 Lw lv
gl!fxow wr mxgjh iurp wkh frh!flhqwv olvwhg deryh/ mxvw zklfk ri wkhvh vxuidfhv pljkw ehvw
ghvfuleh wkh Zroifdps gdwd1 Wkh uhvlgxdo yduldwlrq lv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq zkdw wkh wuhqg
vd|v lv wkhuh +wkh htxdwlrq, dqg zkdw wkh dfwxdo ydoxh zdv1 Zh xvxdoo| fkrrvh d vxuidfh zklfk
pdnhv wkh uhvlgxdo yduldwlrq dv vpdoo dv srvvleoh1 D wudglwlrqdo phwkrg xvhg e| jhrorjlvwv
vlqfh wkh plg 4<83*v lv vlpso| wr fdofxodwh wkh vxp ri wkh vtxduhg uhvlgxdov dqg frpsduh wklv
dv d shufhqwdjh ri wkh ruljlqdo yduldwlrq1
D pruh irupdo phwkrg xvhg e| vwdwlvwlfldqv wr mxgjh wkh vxlwdelolw| ri d Ohdvw Vtxduhv w
lv wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh1 Wklv dqdo|vlv uhtxluhv wkdw wkh uhvlgxdov vkrxog eh lqghshqghqw
Wkh qdo froxpq lv wkh lpsruwdqw rqh1 Xqghu vwdwlvwlfdo dvvxpswlrqv ri Qrupdolw| dqg lqgh0
shqghqfh/ wkh vwdwlvwlfv vkrzq lq wklv odvw froxpq zrxog iroorz wkh 8 glvwulexwlrq1 Wdeohv 8+d,
dqg +e, ri 8 glvwulexwlrq vwdwlvwlfv dw ydulrxv ohyhov ri vljqlfdqfh duh jlyhq lq wklv errn1
Wkh uvw lwhp lq wkh odvw froxpq lq wkh wdeoh lv d ydoxh ri 66;1:91 Wklv vwdwlvwlf frpsduhv wkh
yduldwlrq rq wkh ruljlqdo vhw ri vdpsoh gdwd zlwk wkdw ohiw diwhu wwlqj d olqhdu +sodqdu, vxu0
idfh1 Orrnhg dw yhu| vlpsolvwlfdoo| zh pljkw vd| wkdw wwlqj d olqhdu wuhqg vxuidfh kdv uhgxfhg
wkh yduldwlrq dprqjvw wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv e| d idfwru ri ryhu 6331 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ d vlpsoh
vxuidfh ghvfulehg e| wzr frh!flhqwv h{sodlqv d vljqlfdqw sursruwlrq ri wkh yduldelolw| lq
wkh ruljlqdo vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Wkhvh wzr frh!flhqwv duh wkh rqhv vkrzq lq wkh htxdwlrq deryh
pxowlso|lqj wkh whupv [ dqg \ lq wkh olqhdu htxdwlrq1
Qrz/ zkhq |rx orrn dw wkh qh{w glylvlrq lq wkh wdeoh wkhuh duh wzr jxuhv lq wkh uljkw
kdqg froxpq1 Wkh uvw frpsduhv wkh wwlqj ri d txdgudwlf vxuidfh zlwk lwv yh frh!flhqwv
zlwk dvvxplqj wkdw wkhuh lv qr wuhqg1 Lq wklv fdvh wkh jxuh lv 4981<7 lqglfdwlqj wkdw d yhu|
vljqlfdqw sursruwlrq ri wkh ruljlqdo yduldwlrq fdq eh h{sodlqhg e| d txdgudwlf wuhqg vxuidfh1
Wklv jxuh lv orzhu wkdq wkh olqhdu 8 vwdwlvwlf/ sduwo| ehfdxvh zh kdyh kdg wr fdofxodwh pruh
frh!flhqwv1 Krzhyhu/ lw pljkw eh ehfdxvh wkh txdgudwlf lv qrw d orw ehwwhu wkdq wkh olqhdu
vxuidfh1 Wr frpsduh wkhvh gluhfwo| zh surgxfh wkh vhfrqg jxuh1 Wklv lv d phdvxuhphqw
ri krz pxfk pruh yduldwlrq lv h{sodlqhg e| wkh txdgudwlf wkdq zdv douhdg| h{sodlqhg e|
wkh olqhdu1 Lq vkruw/ wkh dprxqw ri h{wud yduldwlrq h{sodlqhg e| wkh lqfoxvlrq ri wkuhh h{wud
+d, wkh yduldwlrq h{sodlqhg e| wkh h{wud whupv lq wkh wuhqg htxdwlrq zlwk
+e, wkh yduldwlrq uhpdlqlqj diwhu wkh wuhqg kdv ehhq uhpryhg1
Wkdw lv/ wkh h{wud frh!flhqwv lq wkh txdgudwlf wuhqg duh h{sodlqlqj vl{ wlphv wkh uhpdlqlqj
+uhvlgxdo, yduldwlrq1 Wklv zrxog vhhp wr eh vljqlfdqw1
Wkh odvw glylvlrq lq wkh wdeoh vkrzv vlplodu vwdwlvwlfv iru wkh fxelf vxuidfh1 Frpsdulqj
wkh fxelf vxuidfh zlwk qr wuhqg dw doo jlyhv dq 8 vwdwlvwlf ri 433135 zklfk zrxog dsshdu wr
eh vljqlfdqw1 Frpsdulqj wkh fxelf vxuidfh zlwk wkh txdgudwlf/ krzhyhu/ jlyhv 51781 Li rxu
uhvlgxdov zhuh lqghshqghqw ri rqh dqrwkhu zh frxog frpsduh wklv jxuh wr wkh 8 wdeohv 8+d,
dqg 8+e, zlwk 7 dqg :8 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Wkhvh wdeohv zrxog vkrz xv wkdw d ydoxh ri 5178
frxog eh hqfrxqwhuhg sxuho| e| fkdqfh hyhq li wkhuh zdv qr wuhqg1 Wklv lv zkdw lv phdqw
e| wkh vwdwlvwlfldqv* skudvh qrw vljqlfdqw1 Wkxv zh kdyh qr uhdo hylghqfh wkdw wkh fxelf
vxuidfh lv dfwxdoo| dq| ehwwhu wkdq wkh txdgudwlf1
Dqrwkhu lqwxlwlyh phdvxuh/ srsxodu zlwk jhrorjlvwv/ lv vlpso| wr udwlr wkh vxp ri vtxduhv
h{sodlqhg e| d wuhqg vxuidfh zlwk wkh wrwdo vxp ri vtxduhv ehiruh d vxuidfh lv wwhg1 Wkhvh
vwdwlvwlfv vkrxog eh xvhg zlwk fdxwlrq1 Lw lv srvvleoh wr surgxfh d frpsohwho| udqgrp vhw ri gdwd
zklfk zloo vkrz lpsuhvvlyh shufhqwdjhv h{sodlqhg1 Wklv fdq ohdg wr vsxulrxv frqfoxvlrqv1
Qrqh ri wkhvh fulwhuld zloo jlyh |rx d kdug0dqg0idvw remhfwlyh ghflvlrq idfwru dv wr zklfk vxuidfh
lv wkh ehvw ri wkh wkuhh wwhg1 Lw lv dozd|v srvvleoh wkdw d glhuhqw vw|oh ru rughu ri wuhqg lv
9
}SKS ' 2eb. .DSeDf n fSS2t f2 SDef 2 n f SbHfft fbebSt 2
nEb.Df n 2HH.ft n eDfbff 2 t DHb.ft 2 f!e
9
zkhuh f dqg t duh wkh fr0ruglqdwhv ri d vshflhg srlqw dqg }|oe?_ ghqrwhv wkh ydoxh suhglfwhg
e| wkh wuhqg htxdwlrq dw wkdw orfdwlrq1
Qrwh wkdw wkh cfrqwrxuv* lq Iljxuh <149 vkrz dv vwudljkw olqhv/ dv zrxog eh h{shfwhg zlwk
d olqhdu htxdwlrq1 Qrwh dovr wkdw wkh qhjdwlyh frh!flhqwv iru f dqg t duh uh hfwhg lq d gurs
lq ydoxh wr wkh qruwk dqg wr wkh hdvw1 \rx fdq dovr vhh wkh glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh ruljlqdo
vdpsoh ydoxhv dqg wkh orfdo wuhqg iru hdfk gdwd srlqw1 Wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh cuhvlgxdov* fdq
eh mxgjhg e| wkh glhuhqfh lq frorxu dqg vkdglqj ehwzhhq frqwrxuv dqg srvwhg gdwd1 Yhu|
ihz ri wkh gdwd srlqwv vkrz uhvlgxdov pruh wkdq rqh frqwrxu ohyho rxw1
Zkhq zh orrn dw wkh txdgudwlf sorw lq Iljxuh <14:/ |rx fdq vhh wkh lqfuhdvlqj frpsoh{lw|
ri wkh vxuidfh wwhg1 Wkh sorw ri wkh fxelf vxuidfh lq Iljxuh <14; vkrzv wkdw wkhuh lv olwwoh
ylvxdo glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wklv dqg wkh txdgudwlf1 Wklv ehduv rxw wkh qglqjv lq wkh DQRYD
wdeoh/ zklfk vxjjhvw wkdw wkh lpsuryhphqw lq dgglqj wkh h{wud 7 frh!flhqwv uhtxluhg e| wkh
fxelf htxdwlrq lv pdujlqdo1
Wkh +suredeo|, prvw xvhixo whvw wr vhh li zh kdyh uhpryhg doo ri wkh qhfhvvdu| wuhqg lv wr
fdofxodwh wkh uhvlgxdo ydoxhv +Iljxuh <14<,=
9
5^@_o@|S ' } }^@_o@|S
9
5SKS ' } }SKS
dqg wkhq uh0fdofxodwh wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp1 Li qr vljqlfdqw wuhqg lq wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo vhqvh
uhpdlqv/ wkh sduderolf ehkdylrxu rq wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp zrxog kdyh glvdsshduhg1 Wkh
vdph irxu gluhfwlrqdo vhpl0ydulrjudpv dv ehiruh zhuh fdofxodwhg rq +d, wkh uhvlgxdov iurp wkh
txdgudwlf wuhqg +Iljxuh <153, dqg +e, wkh uhvlgxdov iurp wkh fxelf wuhqg +Iljxuh <154,1
431 H{huflvhv
Lqwhusuhw dqg w d prgho wr wkh iroorzlqj h{dpsohv=
41 Wkh yhoyhw ohdi gdwd lv odlg rxw lq d julg sdwwhuq1 xvh wklv gdwd wr fdofxodwh h{shulphqwdo
vhpl0ydulrjudpv/ lqwhusuhw dqg prgho wkhp1
51 Iru dq| ri wkh rwkhu irxu yduldeohv rq wkh frdo gdwd vhw/ frqvwuxfw dqg lqwhusuhw vhpl0
ydulrjudp prghov1
61 Frqvlghu wkh vfdoors gdwd dqg wkh frqfoxvlrqv derxw wkh glvwulexwlrq ri ydoxhv zklfk
zhuh glvfxvvhg lq Fkdswhuv 7 dqg :1 Frqvwuxfw h{shulphqwdo vhpl0ydulrjudpv rq=
Krul}rqwdo Yhuwlfdo
Glvwdqfh -+k, Q+k, Glvwdqfh -+k, Q+k,
54 314;86 4:: 6 31446< 6:;:
8: 314<47 657; 9 31545; 657:
436 315853 43744 < 3159;5 5;3;
486 316838 47388 45 3166;4 5679
536 3179;; 69746 48 3174:4 4<44
57; 3183<5 669:7 4; 317<<4 4836
633 31::<7 63558 54 3187;< 446:
67< 31::97 64<;7 57 318:73 ;7;
734 31;33: 6:;<6 5: 3188<7 954
77< 31;;8: 73763 63 318669 757
7<< 31<<46 6:<48 66 3183;< 5:8
87< 413443 669;3 69 317;7: 4<3
935 31<;99 69<<6 6< 318749 466
984 31<<;< 6:69; 75 319565 ;6
:34 31<<9; 67959 78 31;358 84
:84 31;:<: 64949 7; 31;393 64
;33 31;684 5:4<: 84 318987 47
;7< 31:<55 5<<6: 87 4149<5 7
;<: 31;5:; 5:9;4
<84 31:34 5865;
4333 31:78< 59663
vdpsoh ydoxhv zhuh phdvxuhg dffxudwho| dqg zhuh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh ri wkh dfwxdo ydoxh dw
wkdw orfdwlrq
wkh orfdwlrqv/ dw zklfk zh zlvk wr hvwlpdwh ydoxhv/ h{lvw dv sduw ri d sk|vlfdoo| frqwlqxrxv
dqg uhdvrqdeo| krprjhqhrxv cvxuidfh* ri srwhqwldo vdpsohv
wkh ydoxhv dw wkrvh orfdwlrqv duh uhodwhg wr rqh dqrwkhu lq d zd| zklfk lv ghshqghqw rq
wkh glvwdqfh +dqg srvvleo| wkh uhodwlyh gluhfwlrq, ehwzhhq wkhlu orfdwlrqv
Wklv vhw ri dvvxpswlrqv ohdg xv wr wkh frqfhsw ri d zhljkwhg dyhudjh ru colqhdu* hvwlpdwru/
zkhuh qhljkerxulqj vdpsohv duh frpelqhg wr surylgh dq hvwlpdwhg ydoxh iru wkh xqvdpsohg or0
fdwlrq1 Li zh ghqrwh wkh phdvxuhg vdpsoh ydoxhv dv } dv xvxdo dqg wkh ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg
orfdwlrq dv A / wkhq d zhljkwhg dyhudjh hvwlpdwru ri A zrxog eh zulwwhq dv=
zkhuh 6 lv wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv zh zdqw wr lqfoxgh lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq dqg wkh duh wkh
czhljkwv* zklfk duh dwwdfkhg wr hdfk vdpsoh1 Zh dovr irxqg wkdw/ wr surgxfh d vhqvleoh dqg
xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwh=
[
6
'
'
wkdw lv/ wkh zhljkwlqj idfwruv pxvw vxp wr 41 Xvlqj wklv dssurdfk/ zh surgxfhg d fodvv ri
hvwlpdwruv nqrzq jhqhulfdoo| dv lqyhuvh glvwdqfh hvwlpdwlrq phwkrgv1 Wkhvh duh vlpsoh dqg
vwudljkwiruzdug +li whglrxv, wr fdofxodwh dqg duh lqwxlwlyho| dwwudfwlyh1 Wr eh ohvv srpsrxv/
wkh| pdnh vhqvh1 Krzhyhu/ wkh| dovr ohdg wr d zkroh orw pruh txhvwlrqv/ 44 ri zklfk zhuh
olvwhg lq Fkdswhu ;1
Lq Fkdswhu </ zh vhw rxw wr dqvzhu mxvw rqh ri wkrvh txhvwlrqv txhvwlrq := Krz uholdeoh
lv wkh hvwlpdwh zkhq zh kdyh lwB1 Lq wkh frxuvh ri Fkdswhu </ zh ghyhorshg dqvzhuv wr vhyhudo
ri wkh rwkhu txhvwlrqv/ yl}=
81 Krz idu vkrxog zh jr wr lqfoxgh vdpsohv lq rxu hvwlpdwlrq surfhvvB Li rxu vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho kdv d cvloo* wkhq zh kdyh jrqh vrph zd| wr dqvzhulqj wklv txhvwlrq1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li
rxu prgho lv Vskhulfdo/ wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh lv reylrxvo| wkh pd{lpxp glvwdqfh zklfk
zrxog vhqvleo| eh frqvlghuhg dv d cvhdufk udglxv*1 Eh|rqg wklv glvwdqfh/ vdpsoh ydoxhv
ehfrph xquhodwhg ru/ dw ohdvw/ kdyh uhdfkhg vrph edfnjurxqg wkuhvkrog ri uhodwlrqvkls
zklfk grhv qrw fkdqjh1 Li zh kdyh dq h{srqhqwldo prgho/ wkh srvlwlrq lv qrw vr fohdu fxw1
Wkh h{srqhqwldo uhdfkhv <;( ri lwv vloo ydoxh dw durxqg wkuhh wlphv wkh cglvwdqfh vfdolqj
sdudphwhu* vrphwlphv uhihuuhg wr lq jhrvwdwlvwlfdo
s olwhudwxuh dv wkh cudqjh ri lq xhqfh*1
Iru d Jdxvvldq/ wkh htxlydohqw srlqw lv dw wlphv wkh glvwdqfh vfdolqj sdudphwhu1 Iru
d kroh hhfw prgho/ lw lv vhqvleoh wr vwrs orrnlqj iru vdpsohv ehiruh |rx uhdfk wkh shdn
ri wkh uvw f|foh1 Wklv lv/ jhqhudoo|/ suhww| xquhdolvwlf lq sudfwlfh1
Vhpl0ydulrjudp prghov zklfk kdyh qr vloo kdyh qr fohdufxw dqvzhu wr wklv txhvwlrq1
91 Vkrxog zh krqrxu wkh vdpsoh ydoxhvB Zh kdyh qrw/ dv |hw/ dqvzhuhg wklv txhvwlrq1 Krz0
hyhu/ zh kdyh ghqhg krz zh lqglfdwh rxu ghflvlrq wr wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho1 Li zh
Ef ' f
zh duh/ hhfwlyho|/ iruflqj rxu prgho wr dffhsw wkh vdpsoh ydoxh dv dffxudwho| uhsuhvhq0
wdwlyh ri wkh cwuxh* ydoxh dw wkdw orfdwlrq1 Li zh eholhyh dv vrph jhrvwdwlvwlfldqv gr
wkdw wkh qxjjhw hhfw rq rxu prgho lv d phdvxuh ri wkh huuru pdgh gxulqj wkh vdpsolqj
surfhvv/ wkhq=
Ef ' f
dqg wkh qxjjhw cyduldqfh* ri 2f lv vhhq dv d phdvxuh ri wkh xquholdelolw| ri rxu vdpsoh
ydoxhv1
D pruh uhdolvwlf shuvshfwlyh +shukdsv, zrxog eh wr dvvxph wkdw vrph ri wkh qxjjhw
hhfw lv gxh wr vdpsolqj huuru dqg vrph lv gxh wr wkh lqkhuhqw yduldelolw| ri wkh surfhvv
zklfk surgxfhg wkh vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Wklv lv fhuwdlqo| wuxh lq jhrorjlfdo dssolfdwlrqv dqg
kdv ehhq ghprqvwudwhg lq srooxwlrq vwxglhv vxfk dv frqwdplqdwhg jurxqgzdwhu1 Wkh
sklorvrsklfdo glvwlqfwlrq khuh lv ehwzhhq wzr vdpsohv dw h{dfwo| wkh vdph orfdwlrq dqg
wzr vdpsohv uljkw qh{w wr rqh dqrwkhu1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq jrog plqhudolvdwlrq/ li |rx
wdnh wzr frqwljxrxv vdpsohv wkh ydoxhv fdq eh glhuhqw e| rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh qr
pdwwhu krz dffxudwh/ suhflvh ru wljkwo| frqwuroohg wkh vdpsolqj surfhvv1 Rqh ri wkh
juhdwhvw sureohp lq ghwhuplqlqj zklfk vfkrro ri wkrxjkw lv dssursuldwh olhv lq wkh idfw
wkdw/ prvwo|/ lw lv sk|vlfdoo| lpsrvvleoh wr wdnh wzr vdpsohv dw h{dfwo| wkh vdph orfdwlrq1
Rqfh |rx kdyh fklsshg d vdpsoh r wkh jrog uhhi lw mxvw lv qrw wkhuh dq| pruh1 Uhsolfdwh
vdpsolqj/ lq wkh vwdwlvwlfdo vhqvh/ lv qrw srvvleoh iru wkh pdmrulw| ri vsdwldo vdpsolqj1
Lq uhdolw|/ wkhq/ zh vkrxog suredeo| xvh=
zkhuh R lv vrph sursruwlrq ri wkh wrwdo qxjjhw hhfw1 Zh vkdoo vhh/ odwhu lq wklv fkdswhu/
zkdw lpsdfw wklv ghflvlrq kdv rq rxu qdo hvwlpdwlrq phwkrgv dqg lwv uhvxowv1
<1 Zkdw kdsshqv li rxu vdpsoh gdwd lv qrw QrupdoB Wkh vkruw dqvzhu wr wklv txhvwlrq +vr
idu, lv pdnh lw Qrupdo1 Wklv lv d txhvwlrq zklfk zloo eh ghdow zlwk lq pruh ghwdlo lq
Fkdswhu 451
431 Zkdw kdsshqv li wkhuh lv d vwurqj wuhqg lq wkh ydoxhvB Zh kdyh vhhq/ looxvwudwhg e|
wkh Zroifdps gdwd/ wkdw zh fdq lghqwli| zkhq d wuhqg ru guliw lv vwurqj hqrxjk wr
lqwhuihuh zlwk rxu vhpl0ydulrjudp prghoolqj1 Lq wkh fdvh ri wkh Zroifdps gdwd/ zh
vroyhg wklv sureohp e| uhprylqj d eurdg vfdoh txdgudwlf wuhqg vxuidfh1 Zh zloo glvfxvv
wklv sureohp lq udwkhu pruh ghwdlo lq Fkdswhu 451 Iru wkh uhpdlqghu ri wklv fkdswhu dqg
wkh qh{w/ zh zloo dvvxph wkdw dq| wuhqg suhvhqw kdv ehhq uhpryhg ehiruh zh surgxfh
wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho1
Wklv olvw ri dfklhyhphqwv lv txlwh lpsuhvvlyh li zh irujhw wkdw zh dfwxdoo| vhw rxw wr dqvzhu
txhvwlrq :1
n 2 n n e n D '
Zh fdq glvsod| rxu sureohp judsklfdoo| zlwk wkh sduwlfxodu vdpsoh ydoxhv +ohiw, ru pruh
jhqhudoo| xvlqj } +uljkw,1
Lq wklv fdvh/ A W ' } ' 2HS PM1 Wkh zhljkw dggv xs wr 4/ vr wkh
hvwlpdwru vkrxog eh xqeldvvhg1 Pd|eh zh vkrxog mxvw fkhfn wkdw/ dorqj zlwk rxu dwwhpsw wr
dqvzhu txhvwlrq :1 Zh zlvk wr hydoxdwh wkh olnho| huuru ri hvwlpdwlrq dvvrfldwhg zlwk wklv
surfhvv/ vr wkdw zh fdq surgxfh d frqghqfh lqwhuydo wr jr zlwk rxu hvwlpdwh1 Zh ghqh
hvwlpdwlrq huuru dv=
" ' AW A
vlqfh zh kdyh mxvw vkrzq wkdw zh eholhyh >" lv htxdo wr }hur1 H{sdqglqj wklv d elw zh jhw=
Wkdw lv/ wkh yduldqfh ri wkh huuru pdgh lq wklv hvwlpdwlrq lv wkh dyhudjh ri wkh vtxduhg
glhuhqfh lq ydoxh ehwzhhq sdluv ri srwhqwldo vdpsohv zlwk wkh vdph uhodwlyh srvlwlrq dv }
dqg A 1 Wkdw lv/ wkh dyhudjh vtxduhg glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wzr srwhqwldo vdpsohv 545 phwuhv
dsduw1 Uhphpehu wkdw zh duh qrw mxvw frqvlghulqj wkh vdpsohv zh gr kdyh khuh exw wkh zkroh
srsxodwlrq ri doo srvvleoh vdpsohv dqg doo srvvleoh sdluv ri vdpsohv1 Ri frxuvh/ zh gr qrw
kdyh doo ri wkh srvvleoh vdpsohv/ vr zh fdqqrw fdofxodwh wklv yduldqfh1
Krzhyhu/ zh gr kdyh d wkhruhwlfdo prgho iru lw ru/ udwkhu/ iru kdoi ri lw1 Zh kdyh d
vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho/ zklfk fdq eh h{suhvvhg dv=
E ' . E} } 2
2
zkhuh } dqg } duh wkh ydoxhv ri dq| wzr vdpsohv d glvwdqfh dsduw1 Pdwfklqj wklv zlwk rxu
uhtxluhphqwv deryh jlyhv xv=
Vhh Wdeoh <17 iru wklv jxuh1 Vr wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru lq wklv fdvh kdv d yduldqfh=
Diwhu doo wkdw pdwkhpdwlfv zh kdyh wkh uhvxowv dv iroorzv= li zh xvh rqo|
vdpsoh 4 wr hvwlpdwh wkh xqnqrzq ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrqv/ zh zloo kdyh dq hvwlpdwru
ri 541;9 PM1 Wklv hvwlpdwh zloo eh xqeldvvhg li rxu dvvxpswlrq ri cqr wuhqg* lv mxvwlhg1 Wkh
huuru pdgh lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq surfhvv zloo iroorz d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk d phdq ri }hur dqg
d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 4194 PM1 Wr dyrlg frqixvlrq/ wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq
huuru lv riwhq uhihuuhg wr dv d vwdqgdug huuru1
Zh fdq vd|/ wkhq/ wkdw rxu hvwlpdwh zloo eh zlwklq 41977< vwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv ri wkh cwuxh*
ydoxh ri A zlwk d frqghqfh ri <3(/ zkhuh wkh 41977< zdv dftxluhg iurp wdeoh 5 lq wkh xvxdo
pdqqhu1 Zh fdq eh <3( frqghqw wkdw=
A Seebj" AW A n Seebj"
Mxjjolqj wklv durxqg lq wkh vdph zd| wkdw zh glg lq Fkdswhu 6/ zh qg wkdw=
A W Seebj" A A W n Seebj"
2HS Seeb S A 2HS n Seeb S
b2 A 2eD
Zh fdq eh <3( frqghqw wkdw wkh wuxh ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq olhv ehwzhhq 4<154
dqg 57184 PM1
Txhvwlrq= zkdw vruw ri frqghqfh lqwhuydo zrxog |rx jhw li |rx xvhg vdpsoh 5 lqvwhdg ri
vdpsoh 4B
n '
Qrz/ rxu hvwlpdwru lv vwloo d olqhdu frpelqdwlrq ri wklqjv zh eholhyh wr eh Qrupdo/ vr wkh
hvwlpdwru dqg wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru zloo dovr eh Qrupdo1 Wkh phdq ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru zloo
eh=
xvlqj wkh idfw wkdw wkh dyhudjh ri 78( ri d exqfk ri ydoxhv lv +xvxdoo|, 78( ri wkh dyhudjh
ri wkh exqfk ri ydoxhv1 Wu| lw rq d vsuhdgvkhhw li |rx qhhg frqylqflqj1 Ri frxuvh/ } / } dqg
A duh +zh eholhyh, doo vdpsohv iurp wkh vdph Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk phdq >1 Wklv phdqv
wkdw=
Uhphpehu wkdw .ij lv mxvw vkruw0kdqg iru wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ryhu wkh srsxodwlrq1 Vlqfh n
' / wkh deryh djdlq uhgxfhv wr }hur1 Wkdw lv/ rxu hvwlpdwlrq huuruv zloo dyhudjh }hur dqg
rxu hvwlpdwru eh xqeldvvhg surylghg wkdw rxu ruljlqdo vdpsohv doo frph iurp wkh glvwulexwlrqv
zlwk wkh vdph phdq dqg wkdw wkhuh lv +e| ghqlwlrq, qr wuhqg1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh
ehfrphv=
Xqiruwxqdwho| zh fdqqrw gr wkh vlpsoh vhsdudwlrq wulfn zlwk wkhvh whupv zh kdyh wr pxowlso|
rxw wkh eudfnhwv uvw1 Ehdulqj lq plqg wkdw zh frxog xvh wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho wr jlyh xv
ydoxhv wr sxw lqwr wkh suhylrxv fdofxodwlrqv/ zh uhdoo| zdqw wr jhw wklv h{suhvvlrq grzq lqwr
whupv zklfk lqyroyh wkh vtxduh ri glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq wzr cvdpsoh* ydoxhv1 Zlwk wklv lq plqg/
zh uhduudqjh wkh whupv dv iroorzv=
Wklv qrz ehjlqv wr orrn olnh vrphwklqj wkdw fdq uhodwh wr wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp1 Vtxdulqj rxw
wkh eudfnhw surgxfhv=
Wklv lv ehfrplqj d olwwoh lqyroyhg/ vr ohw xv frqvlghu wkh whupv vhsdudwho|1 Wkh uvw whup lv=
zkhuh E}c A lv d qhz qrwdwlrq lqwurgxfhg wr vwdqg iru wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ydoxh dw wkh
glvwdqfh ehwzhhq vdpsoh 4 dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1 Uhphpehu wkdw wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho lv wkh wkhruhwlfdo phdvxuh iru rqh kdoi ri wkh dyhudjh vtxduhg glhuhqfh ehwzhhq ydoxhv
dw dq| jlyhq glvwdqfh1 Lq rxu h{dpsoh/ E} c A lv wkh vdph dv zulwlqj E221
Lq wkh vdph zd|/ wkh vhfrqg whup ehfrphv=
. E d} A o2 ' 2 . E} A 2
' 2 2E} c A
zkhuh
lv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ydoxh iru wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq vdpsoh 6 dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1
Wkrvh whupv duh suhww| vwudljkwiruzdug1 Wkh gl!fxow rqh lv wkh wklug whup +dv zh kdyh zulwwhq
wkh htxdwlrq, wkh furvv surgxfw=
vlqfh wkh zhljkwv dqg wkh c5* duh vlpsoh qxpehuv/ wkh dyhudjh zh qhhg lv vlpso| wkh cdyhudjh
ryhu wkh zkroh srsxodwlrq* ri whupv zklfk orrn olnh=
E} A E} A
Qrz/ wklv orrnv uhpdundeo| olnh d fryduldqfh w|sh fdofxodwlrq1 Xqiruwxqdwho| zh kdyh qhlwkhu
vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho qru fryduldqfh ixqfwlrq iru wkh furvv surgxfw ri wzr glhuhqfhv/ rqo|
iru glhuhqfhv vtxduhg1 Zlwk d olwwoh elw ri uhduudqjlqj/ krzhyhu/ zh fdq mxjjoh wkhvh whupv
lqwr vrphwklqj zh fdq kdqgoh1 Li |rx duh +e| qrz, frqghqw lq rxu uhvxowv dqg gr qrw ihho wkh
2A } n A 2
}2 2A } n A 2 ' E} A 2
Vlploduo|/
2} A n A 2
lv doprvw
Exw/ ri frxuvh/ zh fdqqrw jr dgglqj lq whupv mxvw ehfdxvh lw lv frqyhqlhqw1 Li zh dgg wkhp lq
zh kdyh wr wdnh wkhp dzd| djdlq1 Wr edodqfh rxu htxdwlrq wkhq/ zh qhhg wr zulwh=
2}} 2A } n A 2 2}A n A 2
' }2 n 2} } }2 n }2 2A } n A 2 n }2 2} A n A 2
zklfk uhgxfhv wr
E} A 2 n E} A 2 E} } 2
dqg
. E} A 2 n E} A 2 E} } 2
' . E} A 2 n . E} A 2 . E} } 2
' 2E} c A n 2E} c A 2E}c }
wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq wkh uvw vdpsoh dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq
zklfk lv d suhww| vkruw dqvzhu wr d yhu| orqj surfhvv1 Sxoolqj doo wkh elwv wrjhwkhu/ zh
vxppdulvh rxu qglqjv1
Zh xvh erwk vdpsoh 4 dqg vdpsoh 6 lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh xqnqrzq ydoxh A 1 Rxu hvwlpdwru
lv=
A W ' } n }
zkhuh
n '
zklfk lv wkh vdph zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh ydulrjudp ydoxhv +wzlfh wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp, eh0
wzhhq= vdpsoh 4 dqg A > vdpsoh 6 dqg A ( plqxv wkh ydulrjudp ehwzhhq wkh wzr vdpsohv
pxowlsolhg e| wkh zhljkwv iru erwk vdpsohv1 Wkhuh lv txlwh d qlfh sdwwhuq lq wklv htxdwlrq/ lq
wkdw zkhuhyhu d vdpsoh dsshduv lwv dvvrfldwhg zhljkw dovr dsshduv1
Wkh uvw qhhg/ khuh/ lv wr fkrrvh wkh zhljkwv iru wkh wzr vdpsohv1 Zh zloo uhwxuq/ odwhu lq wkh
fkdswhu/ wr krz ehvw wr fkrrvh wkh zhljkwv1 Iru wkh prphqw zh zloo fkrrvh duelwudu| zhljkwv ri
3178 iru vdpsoh 4 dqg 3188 iru vdpsoh 61 Wklv lv qrw dv duelwudu| dv lw orrnv/ vlqfh wklv fkrlfh
jlyhv dssur{lpdwho| 53( ohvv zhljkw wr vdpsoh 41 \rx pd| uhphpehu iurp wkh suhylrxv
h{huflvh wkdw vdpsoh 6 jlyhv xv frqghqfh lqwhuydov 53( qduurzhu wkdq wkdw dvvrfldwhg zlwk
vdpsoh 41
Wkh huuru dvvrfldwhg zlwk wklv hvwlpdwru kdv d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk wkhruhwlfdo phdq }hur
dqg wkhruhwlfdo yduldqfh=
zklfk lv 58( orzhu wkdq zkhq zh mxvw xvhg vdpsoh 6 dqg doprvw 73( orzhu wkdq mxvw xvlqj
vdpsoh 41 Rxu <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru wkh cwuxh* ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq lv qrz
ehwzhhq 55164 dqg 58185 PM1
41 li |rx xvh d forvhu vdpsoh |rx jhw pruh frqghqfh lq |rxu hvwlpdwh
51 li |rx xvh wzr vdpsohv |rx kdyh pruh frqghqfh wkdq li |rx mxvw xvh rqh1
Rqh kdv wr txhvwlrq zkhwkhu zh qhhghg doo wklv dojheud wr dfwxdoo| frph wr wkhvh frqfoxvlrqv1
Ohw xv wdnh dq h{dpsoh zkrvh uhvxow pd| eh d olwwoh ohvv lqwxlwlyho| reylrxv1
Rqfh djdlq/ zh kdyh wzr vdpsohv rqh ri zklfk lv 545 phwuhv iurp A dqg rqh
ri zklfk lv 483 phwuhv iurp A 1 Rxu hvwlpdwru zloo eh ri wkh irup=
A W ' 2 }2 n }
zkhuh
2 n '
Surylghg wkdw wkhuh lv qr wuhqg ru rwkhu cqrq0vwdwlrqdulw|* suhvhqw/ wkh dyhudjh hvwlpdwlrq
huuru zloo eh }hur dqg wkh yduldqfh ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru fdq eh fdofxodwhg e|=
zklfk lv wkh vdph zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh ydulrjudp ydoxhv +wzlfh wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp, ehwzhhq
vdpsoh 5 dqg A / vdpsoh 6 dqg A plqxv wkh ydulrjudp ehwzhhq wkh wzr vdpsohv pxowlsolhg e|
wkh zhljkwv iru erwk vdpsohv1
dqg li zh xvh 2 ' feD dqg ' fDD dv ehiruh/ wklv ehfrphv=
zklfk lv yluwxdoo| lghqwlfdo wr zkdw zh jhw zkhq zh rqo| xvhg vdpsoh 6 wr hvwlpdwh A 1 Wkh
rqo| wklqj zklfk fkdqjhg lq wkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru zdv wkh
H{huflvhv iru uhdghu= li |rx zdqw wr cuhlqirufh* wklv vhfwlrq wu| doo frpelqdwlrqv ri wzr
vdpsohv wr hvwlpdwh A dqg qg rxw zklfk jlyhv wkh ehvw hvwlpdwru1
A W ' } n 2}2 n }
zkhuh
n 2 n '
Zlwkrxw zrunlqj wkurxjk doo wkh dojheud/ lw vkrxog eh idluo| reylrxv wkdw zh zloo kdyh whupv
lqyroylqj=
\rx fdq vhh/ wr vrph h{whqw/ krz wkh dgghg whupv duh lqwurgxfhg1 Zh qg lw hdvlhu +dqg pruh
uljrurxv, wr zulwh rxw wkh htxdwlrq dv iroorzv=
41 e| od|lqj rxw doo wkh lqwhu0vdpsoh sdluv lq d wdeoh/ |rx pdnh vxuh |rx gr qrw corvh* dq|
lq wkh surfhvv>
51 wklv lv d orw vlpsohu wr jhqhudolvh wr pruh vdpsohv1
Vxssrvh rxu qh{w vwhs zrxog eh wr frqvlghu doo yh vdpsohv lq wklv h{dpsoh1 E| od|lqj wkh
htxdwlrq rxw wklv zd|/ zh fdq vhh wkdw zh rqo| qhhg wr dgg wzr whupv wr wkh wrs olqh
2eE}ec A dqg 2D E}Dc A 1 Lqvlgh wkh elj eudfnhw zh zrxog qhhg wr dgg wzr whupv wr
hdfk urz dqg dqrwkhu wzr urzv1 Wkh whupv duh vlpso| wkh zhljkwv iru wkdw urz dqg froxpq
pxowlsolhg e| wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq wkh vdpsoh iru wkdw urz dqg wkh vdpsoh iru wkdw
froxpq1 Wkrvh ri |rx zkr duh frpiruwdeoh zlwk pdwulfhv zloo douhdg| eh dpd}hg e| wkh
vlpsolflw| ri wklv htxdwlrq1
Ehiruh zh ohds r lqwr wkh zlgh eoxh |rqghu ri hyhu lqfuhdvlqj vdpsoh qxpehuv/ ohw xv uvw
vroyh wklv wkuhh vdpsoh sureohp1 Zh qhhg wr ghqh zhljkwv iru hdfk vdpsoh1 Zh kdyh wkuhh/
wzr dw 545 phwuhv dqg rqh dw 483 phwuhv1 Zh zloo xvh dq duelwudu| vhw ri zhljkwv dv iroorzv=
' f
2 ' f
' fe
zlwk dq h{shfwhg dyhudjh huuru ri }hur lq wkh devhqfh ri wuhqg dqg dq hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh ri=
Uhphpehulqj wkdw=
iru wkh fdorulf ydoxh lq wkh frdo h{dpsoh/ zh uhgxfh wklv wr=
vr wkdw
s
j" ' b ' fDD PM
zklfk lv pdujlqdoo| zruvh wkdq zkhq zh xvhg vdpsohv 4 dqg 6 wrjhwkhu1 Rxu frqfoxvlrq kdv
wr eh wkdw/ li zh xvh wkhvh vdpsohv zlwk wkhvh zhljkwv/ pruh vdpsohv lv qrw ehwwhu1
Lw lv ehfrplqj reylrxv wkdw zh duh qrw pdnlqj wkh ehvw ri rxu vdpsoh lqirupdwlrq1 Vlqfh
wkh rqo| wklqj zh fdq fkdqjh lq wkh vwdqgdug huuru fdofxodwlrq lv wkh zhljkwlqj idfwruv/ lw
zrxog vhhp suxghqw wr wxuq rxu dwwhqwlrq wr wklv pdwwhu ehiruh zh wu| dq| pruh frpsolfdwhg
h{dpsohv1
zkhuh= } duh wkh phdvxuhg ydoxhv dw hdfk vdpsoh vlwh > duh wkh zhljkwv dffrughg wr hdfk
vdpsoh> 6 lv wkh qxpehu ri vdpsohv wr eh lqfoxghg lq wkh hvwlpdwlrq dqg A W lv rxu hvwlpdwru
ri wkh xqnqrzq ydoxh/ A / dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1 Zh kdyh vhhq ixuwkhu uhdvrqv zk| zh
'
'
Xqghu wkhvh frqglwlrqv/ zh qg wkdw zh fdq ghulyh wkh yduldqfh ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq huuru
riwhq vkruwhqhg wr hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh dv iroorzv=
Orrnlqj dw lw hlwkhu zd|/ wkh frqghqfh zh fdq kdyh lq rxu hvwlpdwru ghshqgv rq=
wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg wkh xqnqrzq ydoxh wr eh hvwlpdwhg>
wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq hyhu| srvvleoh sdlu ri vdpsohv +lqfoxglqj hdfk zlwk lwvhoi,>
Lq zrunlqj rxw wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh/ zh olwhudoo| pdnh hyhu| sdlu ri orfdwlrqv dqg lqfoxgh
lw vrphzkhuh lq wkh htxdwlrq1 Wklv lqfoxghv wdnlqj hdfk vdpsoh zlwk lwvhoi dqg wdnlqj wkh
xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq zlwk lwvhoi1 Zh kdyh/ wkhuhiruh/ txlwh d ihz whupv zklfk lqfoxgh wkh
h{suhvvlrq Ef1 Wr eh suhflvh/ zh kdyh iurp wkh deryh=
[
6
[
6
2
E} c } EAc A ' E n 2Ef
' '
Lq wklv h{dpsoh/ ri frxuvh/ Ef lv }hur/ ehfdxvh zh kdyh d }hur qxjjhw hhfw rq rxu vhpl0
ydulrjudp prgho1 Odwhu lq wkh fkdswhu zh zloo glvfxvv dq h{dpsoh zkhuh wkh qxjjhw hhfw lv
qrq0}hur dqg h{dplqh wkh hhfw wklv fdq kdyh rq wkh uhvxowlqj hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1
A W ' } n 2}2 n }
zkhuh
n 2 n '
surylghg wkdw wkh zhljkwv dgg xs wr 4 dqg wkhuh lv qr wuhqg1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh zdv=
Vxevwlwxwlqj lq wkh glvwdqfhv dqg vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho iru wkh fdorulf ydoxhv=
Xvlqj wkh dssursuldwh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho iru wkh fdorulf ydoxh lq wkh frdo h{dpsoh=
Wklv lv/ dw odvw/ d idluo| vlpsoh h{suhvvlrq zklfk lv ghwhuplqhg e| wkh orfdwlrq ri wkh vdpsohv/
wkh orfdwlrq ri wkh xqvdpsohg vlwh dqg wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq dq| wzr orfdwlrqv1 Doo ri
wkrvh whupv lq wkh htxdwlrqv duh vlpso| qxpehuv zklfk fdq eh uhdg r ru fdofxodwhg iurp wkh
vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho1 Wkh rqo| cyduldeoh* txdqwlwlhv lq wklv h{suhvvlrq duh wkh zhljkwv zklfk
zh fkrrvh wr jlyh wr hdfk vdpsoh1
Vr/ zh fdq vhh/ wkdw wkh frqghqfh zh zloo kdyh lq rxu hvwlpdwru lv glfwdwhg e| wkh zhljkwv
zh fkrrvh1 Qrz/ zh frxog wu| pdq| glhuhqw vhwv ri zhljkwv dqg fdofxodwh wkh hvwlpdwlrq
yduldqfh iru hdfk vhw1 Zh frxog/ iru h{dpsoh/ fkrrvh glhuhqw glvwdqfh zhljkwlqj ixqfwlrqv
dqg frpsduh wr vhh zklfk rqh jlyhv xv wkh ehvw dqvzhu1 Ri frxuvh/ lq wklv frqwh{w/ wkh
orjlfdo ghqlwlrq ri ehvw lv wkh rqh zklfk jlyhv xv wkh qduurzhvw frqghqfh lqwhuydov wkh
rqh zlwk wkh vpdoohvw hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1 Wzr gudzedfnv wr wkdw dssurdfk= lw lv dq dzixo
orw ri zrun dqg wkhuh lv qr jxdudqwhh wkdw zh kdyh dfwxdoo| wulhg wkh wuxo| rswlpdo dqvzhu1
Zh fdq qg wkh ehvw ri wkh vhw zh wu|/ exw wkhuh pd| eh dqrwkhu vhw ri zhljkwv rxw wkhuh
zklfk zrxog gr hyhq ehwwhu1 Pdwkhurq*v dssurdfk wr wklv zdv vlpsoh1 Zh zdqw wkh plqlpxp
ydoxh ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh zhljkwv fkrvhq1
Krz gr zh qg wkh plqlpxp ri d ixqfwlrqB Zh glhuhqwldwh lw dqg vhw wkh glhuhqwldo wr }hur
dqg krsh lw lv qrw d pd{lpxp$
Olih lv qrw txlwh wkdw vlpsoh/ vlqfh zh kdyh wkuhh zhljkwv wr ghwhuplqh dqg pxvw/ wkhuhiruh/
vhw wkuhh glhuhqwldov wr }hur vlpxowdqhrxvo|1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wkh glhuhqwldwlrq lv qrw
h{dfwo| dq rqhurxv wdvn li zh ehdu lq plqg wkdw zkhq zh duh frqvlghulqj wkh glhuhqwldo iru
wkhq 2 dqg duh wuhdwhg olnh {hg qxpehuv1 Iurp
zh jhw=
Yj2"
' 2DbfS bbDe2 eDb 2 ' f
Y
Yj2"
' 2DbfS bbDe S.bH ' f
Y2
Yj2"
' S.bH eDb 2 S.bH2 ' f
Y
Uhzulwlqj dqg wlg|lqj xs d elw=
Xvlqj dq| rqh ri wkh hduolhu htxdwlrqv zh qg wkdw/ iru h{dpsoh=
Wkhvh uhvxowv duh vrphzkdw glvwxuelqj1 Iru d vwduw/ rqh ri wkhp lv qhjdwlyh1 Iru d qlvk/ wkh|
gr qrw dgg xs wr 4 exw 31<7771 Qrz/ zh glg qrw lqvlvw wkdw rxu zhljkwv vkrxog eh srvlwlyh/
zh rqo| vdlg zh zdqwhg wkhp wr dgg xs wr 41 Zh fdq lqwhusuhw d qhjdwlyh zhljkw dv ehlqj
wrog wkdw wkh v|vwhp mxvw grhv qrw zdqw wr xvh wkdw vdpsoh1 Jlyhq wkdw lqfoxglqj wklv vdpsoh
lq suhylrxv fdofxodwlrqv whqghg wr pdnh pdwwhuv zruvh/ wklv vhhpv wr eh d vxssruw wr rxu
suhylrxv lqwxlwlyh ihholqj wkdw wklv vdpsoh grhv qrw jlyh xv dq| h{wud lqirupdwlrq derxw A 1
Krzhyhu/ zh vkrxog eh vrphzkdw frqfhuqhg e| wkh idfw wkdw wkh zhljkwv gr qrw dgg xs
wr rqh1 Wklv zrxog phdq wkdw wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri rxu hvwlpdwlrq huuru zrxog eh=
AW ' } n >
' '
iru ' c 2c 61 Hdfk htxdwlrq pd| dovr eh zulwwhq rxw lq ghwdlo dv=
E} c } n 2 E} c }2 n E} c } n n 6E} c }6 ' E} c A
Qrwh= lw lv zruwk srlqwlqj rxw/ dw wklv srlqw/ wkdw wklv lv zkhuh wkh pdwkhpdwlfdo uhvwulfwlrqv
frph lq iru wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho1 Lw lv qhfhvvdu| iru wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho wr eh
frqglwlrqdoo| srvlwlyh ghqlwh wr jxdudqwhh wkdw wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh deryh lv srvlwlyh1
zkhuh jc uhsuhvhqwv wkh wkhruhwlfdo fryduldqfh ehwzhhq vdpsohv dqg dqg jcA uhsuhvhqwv
wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq vdpsoh dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1 Lq wklv irup/ wkh whup jc lv
wkh fryduldqfh ehwzhhq d vdpsoh dqg lwvhoi1 Li zh eholhyh rxu vdpsoh ydoxhv
Ef ' f
dqg/ wkhuhiruh/
jc ' j2
Ef ' f
jc ' j2 f
Dv lqglfdwhg ehiruh/ zh zloo uhwxuq wr wklv txhvwlrq xvlqj dq looxvwudwlyh h{dpsoh zlwk d qrq0
}hur qxjjhw hhfw lq vhfwlrq 4317161
?E?
2
li zh zdqwhg wr jhw slfn| derxw lw +Fuhvvlh/ shuvrqdo frppxqlfdwlrq,1 Lq wkh frdo surmhfw
h{dpsoh/ zh vwduwhg zlwk <9 vdpsohv1 Wkh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp dssolfdeoh wr wklv hvwlpdwru
zrxog/ e| wklv dujxphqw/ kdyh 7/893 ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Vlqfh Wdeoh 7 rqo| jrhv xs wr 453
ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp ehiruh uhyhuwlqj wr Wdeoh 5/ zh fdq suredeo| xvh wkh Qrupdo wkhru| zlwkrxw
wrr pxfk ihdu ri lqdffxudf|1
zkhuh wkh wkuhh zhljkwv zhuh 316;;8/ 313956 dqg 3194;5 uhvshfwlyho|1 Wklv vhw ri zhljkwv
pdnhv vrph vruw ri vhqvh lqwxlwlyho|1 Wkh juhdwhvw sursruwlrq ri wkh zhljkw +doprvw wzr0
wklugv, lv rq wkh forvhvw vdpsoh1 Vdpsoh 4/ zklfk lv ixuwkhu dzd| exw lq d wrwdoo| glhuhqw
gluhfwlrq jhwv d zhljkw ryhu 93( ri wkh zhljkw jlyhq wr vdpsoh 61 Vdpsoh 5/ zklfk dsshduv
wr eh zruvh wkdq xvhohvv lq wklv fdvh lv dfwxdoo| jhwwlqj d vpdoo/ exw qhjdwlyh/ zhljkw1 Wklv
hvwlpdwru vkrxog/ wkhruhwlfdoo|/ kdyh wkh vpdoohvw srvvleoh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh dqg/ khqfh/
wkh qduurzhvw frqghqfh edqg ri dq| olqhdu hvwlpdwru xvlqj wkhvh vdpsohv1
Krzhyhu/ hyhq li zh sxw wkh txhvwlrq ri d qhjdwlyh zhljkw dvlgh/ wkhuh uhpdlqv rqh hqru0
prxv sureohp1 Wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh hvwlpdwru uhpdlqv xqeldvvhg zh kdyh kdg wr lqwurgxfh d
sursruwlrq ri wkh srsxodwlrq phdq wr pdnh xs wkh vkruwidoo lq wkh zhljkwv1 Qrz/ zh kdyh wr
vd| wkdw/ li zh nqhz zkdw wkh srsxodwlrq phdq zdv/ zh zrxog qrw eh zulwlqj wh{w errnv rq
vlqfh wklv wdnhv qr dffrxqw ri wkh huuru pdgh lq hvwlpdwlqj wkh srsxodwlrq phdq1 Wkhuh duh
ydulrxv vfkrrov ri wkrxjkw rq krz zh prgli| wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh wr uh hfw wkh xqfhuwdlqw|
rq wkh phdq hvwlpdwh1 Wkhuh duh dovr ydulrxv vfkrrov ri wkrxjkw rq krz zh dfwxdoo| jhw dq
hvwlpdwh ri wkh srsxodwlrq phdq dqg zkhwkhu lw vkrxog eh cjoredo* ru corfdo*1 Lq d wh{w errn
olnh wklv/ zh gr qrw zlvk wr ehfrph hqphvkhg lq wkh rqjrlqj frqwuryhuvlhv dqg rslqlrqv
vxuurxqglqj vlpsoh nuljlqj1 Hvshfldoo| vlqfh wkhuh lv d pxfk vlpsohu zd| durxqg wkh sureohp1
zkhuh
n 2 n n n 6 '
Zh zdqwhg wr qg wkh plqlpxp ri wklv ixqfwlrq dqg ghflghg wkh hdvlhvw zd| wr gr wkdw zdv wr
glhuhqwldwh/ vhw wkh glhuhqwldo wr }hur dqg dvvxph zh kdg d plqlpxp dqg qrw d pd{lpxp1
Lq idfw/ |rx fdq csuryh* dojheudlfdoo| wkdw lw zloo eh d plqlpxp1 Wklv jdyh xv 6 htxdwlrqv wr
vroyh iru 6 zhljkwv1 Wkh sureohp lv wkdw wkhuh duh dfwxdoo| 6 n htxdwlrqv/ ehfdxvh zh dovr
zdqw=
[
6
'
'
Qrz/ vroylqj 6 n htxdwlrqv zkhq |rx rqo| kdyh 6 xqnqrzqv lv suhww| pxfk lpsrvvleoh
h{fhsw xqghu sdwkrorjlfdo flufxpvwdqfhv1 Li |rx kdyh 6 n htxdwlrqv |rx uhdoo| qhhg wr kdyh
6 n xqnqrzqv wr vroyh iru1 Zh qhhg wr lqwurgxfh dqrwkhu xqnqrzq1 Wklv lv d vlplodu w|sh
ri wulfn wr wkh rqh zh glg zkhq frpsohwlqj wkh vtxduh wr jhw vrphwklqj zh frxog dfwxdoo|
fdofxodwh1 Wkhuh lv d pdwkhpdwlfdo whfkqltxh fdoohg wkh phwkrg ri Odjudqjldq pxowlsolhuv
zklfk |rx zloo qg lq dq| Fdofxoxv 434 wh{w errn1 Lw jlyhv xv d zd| ri plqlplvlqj +ru
pd{lplvlqj, d ixqfwlrq vxemhfw wr d olqhdu frqvwudlqw1 Zh lqwurgxfh dqrwkhu xqnqrzq idfwru
lq vxfk d zd| wkdw lw frqwulexwhv qrwklqj wr rxu ixqfwlrq wr eh plqlplvhg1
Orrn fduhixoo| dw wkh iroorzlqj ixqfwlrq dqg vhh li |rx djuhh wkdw lw lv h{dfwo| wkh vdph dv
2
j" =
S
j2" n b E
\rxu uhdfwlrq vkrxog eh/ |hv lw lv surylghg wkh zhljkwv dgg xs wr 41 Li lw lvq*w jr edfn dqg
uhdg wkh odvw frxsoh ri vhfwlrqv djdlq1
Wkh whup b wkh Juhhn ohwwhu odpegd lv dq xqnqrzq txdqwlw|1 Zkdwhyhu lwv ydoxh/ wkh
vhfrqg whup lv }hur vr orqj dv zh pdnh wkh zhljkwv dgg xs wr 41 Wr pdnh wkh uhvxowv vlpsohu/
zh dfwxdoo| plqlplvh wkh ixqfwlrq=
S
j2" 2b E
exw wklv lv suhww| dfdghplf1 Iroorzlqj wkh vdph sulqflsoh dv ehiruh zh glhuhqwldwh wklv
ixqfwlrq e| hdfk zhljkw lq wxuq wr jhw htxdwlrqv zklfk pxvw eh vroyhg vlpxowdqhrxvo|1 Wkhvh
htxdwlrqv zloo orrn h{dfwo| dv ehiruh/ h{fhsw wkdw wkhuh zloo eh d b lq hdfk rqh1 Ohw xv orrn
dw dq| rqh htxdwlrq lq ghwdlo=
Y
' 2E} c A 2 i E} c } n 2 E} c }2 n E} c } n n 6E} c }6j 2b ' f
Y
ru
S
'
zklfk lv h{dfwo| zkdw zh zdqw1 Wklv surfhvv lv fdoohg ruglqdu| nuljlqj ru/ dv Pdwkhurq
fdoohg lw ruljlqdoo|/ nuljhdjh ruglqdluh1
Zrun rxw doo ri wkh glvwdqfhv ehwzhhq doo ri |rxu sdluv ri vdpsohv +ohiw0kdqg vlgh, dqg doo
wkh glvwdqfhv ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq +uljkw0kdqg vlgh,1 Soxj wkhvh
lqwr |rxu vhpl0ydulrjudp htxdwlrq wr jhw wkh whupv1 Vroyh wkh htxdwlrqv wr jhw wkh zhljkwv
ic 2c c 6j dqg b1 Xvh wkh zhljkwv wr jlyh |rx wkh ehvw olqhdu xqeldvvhg hvwl0
pdwru vrphwlphv nqrzq dv ceoxh*1
Zh fdq dovr zrun rxw wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh iru wkh hvwlpdwru wr surylgh frqghqfh lqwhuydov
rq rxu hvwlpdwhg ydoxh1 Rqh ri wkh qlfh wklqjv derxw wklv v|vwhp lv wkdw zh fdq xvh |hw
dqrwkhu dojheudlf wulfn wr vlpsoli| wkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1 Zlwk d txlfn
li |rx xvhg b lq wkh htxdwlrqv +ru ylfh yhuvd,1 Wkh whupv jcA ghqrwh wkh fryduldqfh ixqfwlrq
ydoxh ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1
Vxevwlwxwlqj doo ri wkh glvwdqfhv ehwzhhq doo ri wkh sdluv ri vdpsohv +ohiw kdqg vlgh, dqg doo
wkh glvwdqfhv ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq +uljkw kdqg vlgh,=
Vroylqj wkh htxdwlrqv wr jhw wkh zhljkwv ic 2c j dqg b/ zh jhw=
' fe S
2 ' ffDD
' fS .b
b ' ffSSH
dqg d <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo rq wkh cwuxh* ydoxh ri A ri 57139 418< wkdw lv iurp 5517: wr
58198 PM1
Wklv lv d pdujlqdoo| kljkhu hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh wkdq wkdw jlyhq e| vlpsoh nuljlqj1 Krzhyhu/
lw uhtxluhv qr nqrzohgjh ri wkh wuxh srsxodwlrq phdq wr fdofxodwh wklv hvwlpdwh1 Li zh xvh wkh
vhpl0ydulrjudp irup/ zh gr qrw qhhg wr nqrz wkh srsxodwlrq vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq hlwkhu ru
hyhq dvvxph wkdw lw lv frqvwdqw ryhu wkh vwxg| duhd1
A W ' f2DfD 2HS n ffHe 2DS2 n f2bf. 2DS n f2bf. 2SHf n ffHe 2 .S
' 2eHS PM
vr wkdw jJ& '31;4 PM1 Rxu ehvw olqhdu xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwh iru wkh ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg
orfdwlrq edvhg rq 8 vdpsohv lv 571;9 PM1 Wkh vwdqgdug huuru jlyhv xv <3( frqghqfh ri
ehlqj zlwklq 4166 PM ri wkh wuxh ydoxh/ vr wkdw rxu frqghqfh lqwhuydo iru wkh ydoxh ri A lv
ehwzhhq 56186 dqg 5914< PM1
Ef ' f
qr pdwwhu zkdw vl}h wkh qxjjhw hhfw lv1 Zh lqwhusuhw wkh qxjjhw hhfw dv ehlqj wkh hvvhqwldo
glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wzr vdpsohv wdnhq yhu| forvh wrjhwkhu exw qrw dw h{dfwo| wkh vdph orfdwlrq1
Hhfwlyho|/ zh kdyh d glvfrqwlqxlw| dw wkh ruljlq ri rxu vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho/ zkhuh zh irufh
lw wr jr wkurxjk }hur dw }hur glvwdqfh1
Zh zloo wdnh d vpdoo h{dpsoh wr ghprqvwudwh wkh lpsdfw ri wkh ydoxh ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho dw }hur1 Zh kdyh vhohfwhg d srlqw wr eh hvwlpdwhg dw if ' fc t ' bfj dqg fkrvhq
yh vxuurxqglqj vdpsohv iru wkh looxvwudwlrq1
Qrz/ vxssrvh zh glg qrw eholhyh wkh gdwd ydoxhv zhuh suhflvh dqg dffxudwh1 Pdq| sudfwlwlrqhuv
ri jhrvwdwlvwlfv +dqg pdq| frpsxwhu sdfndjhv, doorz wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho wr lqwhuvhfw
wkh d{lv dw wkh qxjjhw hhfw/ vr wkdw=
Ef ' f
Zkdw glhuhqfh grhv wklv pdnh wr rxu nuljlqj v|vwhp dqg wkh uhvxowv iurp lwB Wkh htxdwlrqv
duh doprvw lghqwlfdo/ zlwk rqo| wkh gldjrqdo hohphqwv fkdqjlqj=
' f2f.. 2 ' fHfe ' fD2f. e ' fS22 D ' ff. b ' HbS
Qrwlfh wkh pdvvlyh vkliw lq zhljkwlqj wrzdugv wkh forvhvw vdpsoh1 Qrwlfh dovr wkh hqruprxv
fkdqjh lq wkh odjudqjldq pxowlsolhu1 Uhphpehu wkdw wklv ydoxh lv d edodqfh ehwzhhq wkh
h!flhqf| ri wkh vdpsohv lq hvwlpdwlqj A dqg wkh foxvwhulqj +ru qrw, ri wkh gdwd1 Wklv ydoxh
lv dgghg wr wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh/ vr d odujh qhjdwlyh jxuh lv h{wuhpho| ghvludeoh1
Wkh nuljlqj yduldqfh lv=
jlylqj d nuljlqj vwdqgdug huuru ri ;419 ihhw1 Wklv lv 88( ri wkh nuljlqj vwdqgdug huuru rewdlqhg
zkhq zh wuxvw rxu gdwd lpsolflwo|1 Wkh hvwlpdwhg ydoxh dw wkh xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq lv qrz :61;
ihhw deryh wkh orfdo wuhqg ydoxh1
Wkhvh uhvxowv duh wrwdoo| frxqwhu lqwxlwlyh1 Li zh wuxvw rxu vdpsoh ydoxhv/ zh kdyh ohvv frq0
ghqfh lq rxu hvwlpdwru wkdq li zh gr qrw wuxvw rxu vdpsoh ydoxhv1 Wklv mxvw grhv qrw pdnh
vhqvh1 Zkhwkhu zh vhw Ef ' f ru Ef ' f/ wkh nuljlqj v|vwhp zloo krqrxu wkh gdwd1 Exw/
whoolqj wkh nuljlqj v|vwhp wkdw wkh vdpsohg ydoxh lv lq huuru uhvxowv lq vljqlfdqwo| qduurzhu
frqghqfh lqwhuydov1
Wklv lv d qrqvhqvlfdo uhvxow dqg fdqqrw eh dffhswhg lq dq| uhdo dssolfdwlrq1 Wkhuh duh wzr
srvvleoh vroxwlrqv zklfk duh vlpsoh wr lpsohphqw=
41 Irufh wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho wr jr wkurxjk }hur dw }hur glvwdqfh1 Li |rxu vriwzduh xvhv
wkh qxjjhw hhfw dw }hur glvwdqfh/ lqwurgxfh dqrwkhu frpsrqhqw wr |rxu vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho1 Lqvwhdg ri d qxjjhw hhfw ri f / jlyh |rxu vriwzduh d qxjjhw hhfw ri 3 dqg dq
h{wud Vskhulfdo frpsrqhqw zlwk d yhu| vkruw udqjh ri lq xhqfh dqg wkh vloo f1 Li |rx
gr qrw nqrz zkdw |rxu vriwzduh grhv/ wu| wklv dqg vhh li lw pdnhv d glhuhqfh wr |rxu
dqvzhuv1
51 Fduu| rxw |rxu nuljlqj zlwk wkh qxjjhw hhfw dw }hur glvwdqfh1 Wkhq dfnqrzohgjh wkdw
|rx gr qrw wuxvw |rxu gdwd dqg dgg 2f wr doo ri |rxu nuljlqj yduldqfhv1 Lq rxu h{dpsoh
deryh/ wklv zrxog errvw wkh nuljlqj yduldqfh xs wr 63988 iw2 dqg surgxfh d nuljlqj
vwdqgdug huuru ri 4:814 iw1 Wklv lv qrz doprvw 53( kljkhu wkdq wkh fdvh zkhuh zh wuxvw
wkh gdwd/ zklfk pdnhv d orw pruh vhqvh1
Qrwh= dsduw iurp wklv glvfxvvlrq/ doo nuljlqj fduulhg rxw lq wklv wh{w errn lv fduulhg rxw zlwk
Ef ' f1
41 Uhpryh d vdpsoh iurp wkh gdwd vhw1 Wklv ydoxh lv qr orqjhu frqvlghuhg wr eh d } exw lv
qrz d A 1
51 Xvlqj wkh uhpdlqlqj vdpsohv/ surgxfh dq hvwlpdwru/ AWdqg lwv dvvrfldwhg vwdqgdug huuru/
j"c 1 Dq| ri wkh nuljlqj whfkqltxhv ru hyhq lqyhuvh glvwdqfh fdq eh xvhg iru wklv surfhvv/
vr orqj dv wkh vwdqgdug huuru lv fdofxodwhg edvhg rq wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho1
Lq wkhru|/ li rxu vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho lv fruuhfw dqg wkh nuljlqj lv fduulhg rxw fruuhfwo|/
wklv lv rqh vdpsoh iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk d }hur phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
j"c 1
Wkhuh duh glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq sudfwlwlrqhuv dv wr zkdw lv grqh zlwk wkh qdo olvw ri " ydoxhv1
Vrph sudfwlwlrqhuv frpsduh wkh dyhudjh ri "2 zlwk wkh dyhudjh ri j2ec / suhvxpdeo| lq vrph
iru hdfk vdpsoh1 Wklv % lv qrz d vwdqgduglvhg vwdwlvwlf zklfk vkrxog li doo kdv jrqh zhoo
frph iurp d glvwulexwlrq zlwk d phdq ri }hur dqg d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 41 Wkdw lv/ doo ri
wkh % vkrxog frph iurp wkh vdph srsxodwlrq1 Wkh phdq ri wkdw srsxodwlrq fdq eh hvwlpdwhg
e| %7 dqg wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq e| r% zkhuh=
[
?
%
7 ' %
? '2
[
r2% ' 72
E% %
?
Li wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho dqg nuljlqj whfkqltxh duh dssursuldwh/ wklv phdq dqg vwdqgdug
ghyldwlrq vkrxog eh dssur{lpdwho| htxdo wr }hur dqg 4 uhvshfwlyho|1 Dv dq h{dpsoh/ d vhpl0
ydulrjudp zdv fdofxodwhg iurp wkh rujdqlfv gdwd vhw1 Wkh prgho wwhg wr wklv vhpl0ydulrjudp
zdv Vskhulfdo zlwk d qxjjhw hhfw ri 418 +j2nj,2 / d udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri 453 phwuhv dqg d
vloo rq wkh Vskhulfdo frpsrqhqw ri : +j2nj,21 Wkh prglhg Fuhvvlh vwdwlvwlf iru wklv w zdv
31368</ lqglfdwlqj jrrg djuhhphqw1 D furvv ydolgdwlrq h{huflvh surgxfhg dq dyhudjh vwdwlvwlf
ri 03133;; zlwk dq hvwlpdwhg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 4138941
rujdqlfv gdwd= suredelolw| sorw ri vwdqgduglvhg huuruv iurp furvv ydolgdwlrq h{huflvh
Qrwh= wkh iroorzlqj zdv irxqg lq d frqvxowdqw*v uhsruw= Wkh furvv ydolgdwlrq h{huflvh zdv
vrphzkdw ohvv wkdq vdwlvidfwru|1 Krzhyhu/ wklv lv ri olwwoh frqfhuq/ vlqfh nuljlqj dozd|v surylghv
wkh ehvw olqhdu xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwru1 Eh zduqhg1
rujdqlfv gdwd= dfwxdo vdpsoh ydoxh yhuvxv vwdqgduglvhg furvv ydolgdwlrq vwdwlvwlf
f t
fr0ruglqdwh fr0ruglqdwh Dffxpxodwlrq
+p, +p, +fpj2w,
5714 4;71; 47:9
431; 4:814 4735
4<13 4:41< 4697
6;19 48;18 4:68
691: 4831< 4;98
51 Wkh wklfnqhvv ri d sduwlfxodu frdo vhdp lv nqrzq wr iroorz dq h{srqhqwldo w|sh vhpl0
ydulrjudp prgho zlwk qxjjhw hhfw +f , 314p2 / glvwdqfh vfdolqj sdudphwhu +@, 4:83
phwuhv dqg d vloo rq wkh h{srqhqwldo frpsrqhqw +, ri 317p2 1 Surgxfh dq hvwlpdwh
ri wkh wklfnqhvv ri wklv vhdp dw wkh orfdwlrq f@4433/ t @;83 dqg lwv fruuhvsrqglqj
hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1
f t Wklfnqhvv ri
fr0ruglqdwh fr0ruglqdwh frdo vhdp
+p, +p, +p,
9:< 44:8 61<
89; 576 917
;9< 674 81;
498< 467: 918
47;; 6;7 815
61 Irxu eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq d sduwlfxodu duhd zlwklq d pxowl0plqhudo vxosklgh
ghsrvlw1 Wkh wdeoh ehorz olvwv wkh vloyhu ydoxhv hqfrxqwhuhg lq wkhvh eruhkrohv/ lq nj2wrq1
Iurp wkh ixoo guloolqj fdpsdljq/ lw kdv ehhq hvwdeolvkhg wkdw wkh vloyhu ydoxhv kdyh d
Vskhulfdo vhpl0ydulrjudp zlwk=
Lw lv uhtxluhg wr hvwlpdwh wkh vloyhu ydoxh dw wkh orfdwlrq i:83/533j Vhw xs wkh htxdwlrqv
qhfhvvdu| wr surgxfh wkh Ehvw Olqhdu Xqeldvvhg Hvwlpdwru dw wklv orfdwlrq1 Vwdwh krz
f t Ydoxh
9651:3 4<6197 64153
9;4156 ;51;< 6<1<6
<4<148 484133 481;3
:6;175 46<1:< 4:71<9
71 Lw lv wudglwlrqdo lq uhhi0w|sh plqhv wr hvwlpdwh wkh vwrsh ydoxh e| vlpso| dyhudjlqj wkh
cidfh* vdpsohv1 Lq vrph fdvhv wzr suhylrxv cidfhv* duh xvhg1 Wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv zhuh
froohfwhg lq d sodwlqxp uhhi1 Suhylrxv dqdo|vlv kdv vkrzq wkdw sodwlqxp judghv lq wklv
uhhi whqg wr iroorz d Vskhulfdo prgho/ zlwk qxjjhw hhfw 316 +j2w,2 / udqjh ri lq xhqfh
458 phwuhv dqg d vloo rq wkh Vskhulfdo frpsrqhqw ri 319 +j2w,21 Li wkh vwrsh fhqwuh lv dw
f@7955</ t @66:88/ zkdw frqghqfh fdq zh kdyh wkdw wkh dulwkphwlf phdq ri wkhvh
vdpsohv uh hfwv wkh judgh dw wkdw srlqwB
f t
fr0ruglqdwh fr0ruglqdwh Judgh
+p, +p, +j2w SJP,
79547 66:78 ;16<
79547 66:83 441::
79547 66:88 4315
79547 66:93 461;6
79547 66:98 46135
7953< 66:78 44187
7953< 66:83 ;16;
7953< 66:88 451:5
7953< 66:93 531:7
7953< 66:98 461<<
81 Eruhkrohv kdyh ehhq guloohg lq d vhglphqwdu| lurq ruh ghsrvlw1 Lw kdv ehhq ghwhuplqhg
wkdw wkhvh ydoxhv iroorz d vhpl0ydulrjudp zlwk qr qxjjhw hhfw/ d udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri
583 phwuhv dqg d vloo ri 58 (Ih21 Zh zlvk wr hvwlpdwh wkh olnho| ydoxh dw dq +dv |hw,
xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq dw f@583/ t @4831 Vhw xs wkh htxdwlrqv qhfhvvdu| wr surgxfh wkh
Ehvw Olqhdu Xqeldvvhg Hvwlpdwru dw wklv orfdwlrq1 Vwdwh krz |rx zrxog surgxfh wkh
hvwlpdwru +WW dqg lwv dvvrfldwhg vwdqgdug huuru +jJ& 1
f t (Ih
5;8 443 6816
593 448 6615
668 4:3 5:17
573 4;8 6315
658 4<8 661<
5<3 563 6<1<
f t (]q
538 543 41;
543 548 515
4;8 4:3 81;
573 4;8 ;19
558 4<8 <19
553 563 914
;1 D w|slfdo Zlwv jrog uhhi kdv d Vskhulfdo vhpl0ydulrjudp zlwk d qxjjhw hhfw ri 316/ d
udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri 458 phwuhv dqg d wrwdo vloo ri 31< zkhq fdofxodwhg rq wkh orjdulwkp ri
dffxpxodwlrq ydoxh1 Vhw xs wkh ruglqdu| nuljlqj v|vwhp wr qg wkh ehvw olqhdu xqeldvvhg
hvwlpdwru iru wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh dffxpxodwlrq dw wkh orfdwlrq f@4<33/ t @;333 xvlqj
wkh iroorzlqj vdpsohv1
f t fpj2w
4;94 :<;7 99:
4;<; :<3< <486
4<8< ;3<5 7858
4<9: :<3: 648
534: :<;6 9:;
Iru wkh exon ri wklv fkdswhu/ zh zloo looxvwudwh rxu glvfxvvlrq zlwk wkh lurq ruh gdwd iurp Sdjh
<8 lq Sudfwlfdo Jhrvwdwlvwlfv 4<:<1 Lq vhfwlrq 61915/ zh irxqg wkdw wkhvh vdpsohv dsshduhg wr
frph iurp d Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq zlwk phdq 67183 (Ih dqg dq hvwlpdwhg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
ri 71:8 (Ih1 Wkh dssolfdwlrq ri jhrvwdwlvwlfdo hvwlpdwlrq wr xqvdpsohg orfdwlrqv zdv fryhuhg
lq vhfwlrq 4317151 Dq h{shulphqwdo vhpl0ydulrjudp zdv fdofxodwhg dqg d Vskhulfdo prgho wwhg
zlwk qr qxjjhw hhfw/ d udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri 453 phwuhv dqg d vloo ri 57 (Ih21 Li zh vtxduh
urrw wkh vloo ydoxh/ zh jhw 71<3 (Ih/ zklfk lv d olwwoh kljkhu wkdq rxu vwdwlvwlfdoo| hvwlpdwhg
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 71:8 (Ih1
Ehdu lq plqg wkdw wkhvh duh wzr glhuhqw hvwlpdwhv ri wkh vdph txdqwlw| wkh srsxodwlrq
vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq dqg duh edvhg rq wzr glhuhqw vhwv ri dvvxpswlrqv1 Wkh vtxduh urrw ri
wkh vloo lv suredeo| d ehwwhu hvwlpdwh iru j wkdq r lv/ vlqfh wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh vloo ydoxh grhv
qrw ghshqg rq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw vdpsohv zhuh wdnhq udqgrpo| dqg lqghshqghqwo|1
Rqh ri wkh wklqjv zklfk glvwlqjxlvkhv Pdwkhurq*v zrun iurp doprvw doo rwkhu zrunhuv lq
wkh hog eduulqj Nuljh klpvhoi lv wkdw kh h{whqghg klv frqvlghudwlrqv wr ghdolqj zlwk
dyhudjh ydoxhv ryhu duhdv dqg yroxphv1 Lq plqlqj/ lq sduwlfxodu/ zh duh frqfhuqhg rq d gd| wr
gd| edvlv zlwk duhdv dqg yroxphv1 Wkhuh duh qrw wrr pdq| plqhv lq wkh zruog zkr surgxfh
ruh e| kdqg slfnlqj urfnv ru fklsslqj iurp wkh h{srvhg idfh ri wkh plqhudolvdwlrq1 Jhqhudoo|/
plqlqj lv sodqqhg dqg h{hfxwhg lq whupv ri cvwrshv* plqlqj duhdv dqg yroxphv ru lq whupv
ri plqlqj eorfnv1 Wkh whup cvwrsh* lv xvxdoo| jlyhq wr plqlqj duhdv zlwklq xqghujurxqg ckdug
urfn* phwdoolihurxv plqhv1 Lq frdo/ plqlqj surfhhgv e| orqjzdoov ru e| currp dqg sloodu* sodqv1
Rshq fdvw plqhv +rshq slwv, duh sodqqhg zlwk plqlqj eorfnv zklfk duh jhqhudoo|/ exw qrw
dozd|v/ ri vlplodu vl}h1
Wkh txhvwlrq zklfk Pdwkhurq dgguhvvhg zdv krz gr zh hvwlpdwh dqg surgxfh frqghqfh
rq wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ryhu d plqlqj eorfnB1 Wklv lv qrw d wulyldo txhvwlrq lq wkh frqwh{w ri
plqh sodqqlqj1 Frqvlghu/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkh judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyh1 Dffruglqj wr rxu fdofxodwlrqv
lq vhfwlrq 61915/ ;6( ri rxu duhd od| deryh d fxwr ri 63 (Ih dqg wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wklv
csd|deoh* pdwhuldo zdv 681<9 (Ih1 Wkh duhd xqghu vwxg| fryhuv d vtxduh 733 phwuhv rq d
vlgh1 Li zh sodq wr plqh wklv duhd lq 53 phwuh eorfnv/ krz pdq| ri wkrvh 733 eorfnv zloo eh
Iljxuh 4414= wzr uhsuhvhqwdwlyh eorfnv lq lurq ruh +sdjh <8, vwxg| duhd
Lq Iljxuh 4414 zh vhh wzr w|slfdo fdvhv zklfk looxvwudwh rxu sureohp1 Rq wkh ohiw/ zh vhh
d eorfn zklfk lv/ ryhudoo/ sd|deoh1 Rq dyhudjh/ wklv eorfn kdv d ydoxh ri doprvw 6518 (Ih1
Krzhyhu/ zh fdq vhh fohduo| wkdw wkhuh duh duhdv zlwklq wkh eorfn zklfk olh ehorz 63 (Ih1 Li zh
fkrrvh wr plqh wklv eorfn ehfdxvh wkh dyhudjh lv deryh fxwr zh zloo lqfoxgh pdwhuldo zklfk
lv ehorz wkdw fxwr1 Lq wkh eorfn rq wkh uljkw/ zh vhh d eorfn zkrvh ydoxh lv rqo| 5;1; (Ih rq
dyhudjh1 Wklv eorfn zrxog qrw eh plqhg ehfdxvh lwv dyhudjh lv ehorz 63 (Ih1 Krzhyhu/ wkhuh
lv sd|deoh pdwhuldo zlwklq wkh eorfn zklfk zloo eh ohiw ehklqg1 Wkh ryhudoo hhfw ri vhohfwlqj
rq eorfn dyhudjhv lv wkdw zh zloo/ jhqhudoo|/ hqg xs vhohfwlqj d kljkhu sursruwlrq dv csd|deoh*
exw wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri wkdw lqfuhdvhg sursruwlrq zloo eh frpphqvxudwho| orzhu wkdq li zh
frxog dfklhyh shuihfw vhohfwlrq1
Rqfh zh vwduw dyhudjlqj ydoxhv ryhu duhdv ru yroxphv/ zh fkdqjh wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri rxu
ghqhg sureohp1 Dyhudjh ydoxhv duh qrw dv yduldeoh dv vlqjoh csrlqw* ydoxhv1 Pdwkhurq gxeehg
wklv wkh yroxph2yduldqfh hhfw1 Zh kdyh douhdg| vhhq hylghqfh ri wklv sureohp lq Nuljh*v
uhjuhvvlrq hhfw lq vhfwlrq :15161 Lq wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo olwhudwxuh/ wklv hhfw kdv ehhq jlyhq
pdq| qdphv1 Suredeo| wkh prvw zlgho| vsuhdg lv wkh frqglwlrqdo eldv1
Wkh duhd fdq eh frqvlghuhg wr eh d orw ri srwhqwldo vdpsoh vlwhv1 Hdfk csrlqw* zlwklq wkh duhd
+ru yroxph, kdv d ydoxh zklfk zh gr qrw nqrz ehfdxvh zh kdyh qrw vdpsohg lw1 Zh zdqw
wr ghulyh wkh yduldelolw| dprqjvw doo wkhvh srwhqwldo vdpsoh ydoxhv/ zlwkrxw kdylqj wr jr lq
dqg dfwxdoo| wdnh wkhp doo1 Wkh txdqwlw| zh qhhg lv wkh yduldwlrq ehwzhhq wkh ydoxhv wkh
glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq doo ri wkhvh lqglylgxdo ydoxhv1 Wklv lv wkh yduldwlrq zh uhpryh zkhq zh
dyhudjh wkhp doo1
Qrz/ zh fdqqrw fdofxodwh wkh glhuhqfhv/ ehfdxvh zh gr qrw kdyh wkh dfwxdo ydoxhv1 Krz0
hyhu/ zh gr kdyh d prgho iru wkh glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq dq| wzr orfdwlrqv/ surylghg zh fdq
fdofxodwh wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkhp +dqg/ zkhuh uhohydqw/ wkh gluhfwlrq,1 Wkdw prgho iru
glhuhqfhv lv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ixqfwlrq1 Zh fdq xvh wkh irupxod iru wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp
prgho wr surylgh wkh ch{shfwhg* glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh ydoxhv dw dq| wzr vshflhg orfdwlrqv
zlwklq wkh eorfn1
Li zh zrun rxw wklv glvwdqfh/ zh fdq jhw wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh glhuhqfh lq ydoxh iurp E1
7Ec
Zkhuh vwdqgv iru wkh duhd ru yroxph ryhu zklfk zh zlvk wr dyhudjh wkh ydoxhv1 Lq pruh
idploldu qrwdwlrq/ |rx pd| uhfrjql}h wklv dv=
7EAc A
zkhuh A lv qrz wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ryhu wkh duhd/ qrw wkh vlqjoh ydoxh dw dq xqvdpsohg orfdwlrq1
Prvw jhrvwdwlvwlfv errnv surylgh wdeohv dqg fkduwv wr khos xv fdofxodwh wkhvh ydoxhv iru lghdolvhg
fdvhv1 Lq wklv errn/ zh surylgh Wdeohv 45 dqg 46 iru wkh Vskhulfdo prgho/ vroho| iru wklv
looxvwudwlrq1 Lq sudfwlfh/ wklv w|sh ri fdofxodwlrq lv kdqgohg e| vriwzduh1 Lw lv/ shukdsv/
dssursuldwh dw wklv vwdjh wr glvfxvv wkh olplwdwlrqv ri fdofxodwlqj wklv dqg rwkhu dyhudjh vhpl0
ydulrjudp ydoxhv dw wklv srlqw lq wkh wh{w1
Zh kdyh vwdwhg wkdw wkh 7 EAc A txdqwlw| lv wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq hyhu|
srvvleoh sdlu ri srlqwv zlwklq wkh duhd +ru yroxph,1 Ri frxuvh/ lq wkhru|/ wkhuh duh d frxqwdeo|
lqqlwh qxpehu ri csrlqwv* lq dq| duhd1 Frpsxwhuv duh qrw whuuleo| kdss| zlwk lqqlwh qxpehuv
ri dq|wklqj frxqwdeoh ru qrw1 Vr/ lq sudfwlfh/ zh gr qrw xvh doo ri wkh srlqwv/ rqo| d
uhsuhvhqwdwlyh vxevhw1 Wklv/ lq wkh qdwxuh ri wklqjv/ udlvhv |hw dqrwkhu txhvwlrq1 Krz pdq|
srlqwv duh hqrxjk wr eh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh ri d zkroh duhdB Vwxglhv gdwlqj edfn wr 4<:8 +Fodun/
uvw hyhu Jhrvwdw Frqjuhvv,/ vkrz wkdw zh fdq jhw zlwklq 4( ri wkh fruuhfw dyhudjh vhpl0
ydulrjudp ydoxh zlwk 97 srlqwv uhjdugohvv ri wkh vl}h ri wkh duhd1 Wklv pd| vrxqg d olwwoh
vwudqjh/ exw lw zrunv1 Li zh xvh 433 srlqwv wr uhsuhvhqw dq duhd/ zh fdq jhw ehwwhu wkdq 318(
dffxudf| rq wkh 7 EAc A whupv1 Wklv surfhvv ri uhsuhvhqwlqj wkh duhd +ru yroxph, e| d qlwh
qxpehu ri srlqwv kdv ehfrph nqrzq lq wkh jhrvwdwlvwlfdo zruog dv glvfuhwlvdwlrq1
Wkh lpsruwdqw fulwhuld lq glvfuhwlvdwlrq duh wr nhhs doo ri |rxu srlqwv lqvlgh wkh duhd +qrw
rq wkh hgjh, dqg wr kdyh wkh vdph qxpehu ri srlqwv lq doo gluhfwlrqv wkdw lv/ kdyh dq ; e|
; ru 43 e| 43 julg/ hyhq li wkdw phdqv wkh vsdflqj lv glhuhqw lq wkh wzr gluhfwlrqv1
zklfk phdqv zh fdq jhw wkh yduldqfh ehwzhhq wkh eorfn dyhudjhv e|=
Wkh Sdjh <8 gdwd zdv irxqg wr kdyh d Vskhulfdo vhpl0ydulrjudp/ qr qxjjhw hhfw/ udqjh ri
lq xhqfh 453 phwuhv dqg d vloo ri 57 (Ih2 1 Zh zloo wdnh wklv vloo dv wkh ehvw hvwlpdwh iru
rxu srsxodwlrq yduldqfh/ j21 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh csrlqw* ydoxhv lq wklv duhd kdyh d Qrupdo
glvwulexwlrq zlwk phdq 67183 (Ih dqg d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 71<3 (Ih1 Ohw xv dvvxph d
sodqqlqj eorfn ri 83 phwuhv rq d vlgh1
Wkh zlwklq eorfn yduldwlrq lv fdofxodwhg e| hydoxdwlqj wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq doo
srvvleoh sdluv ri srlqwv zlwklq wklv 83 phwuh vtxduh1 Iruwxqdwho| iru xv/ vrphrqh zrunhg rxw
wkh wkhruhwlfdo irupxod iru wklv txdqwlw| rqo| iru uhfwdqjxodu eorfnv wkrxjk1 Wdeoh 45 olvwv
ydoxhv iru d ixqfwlrq fdoohg 8 E,c K1 Wklv ixqfwlrq lv wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp ydoxh zlwklq
d uhfwdqjxodu eorfn1 Wdeoh 45 lv vwdqgduglvhg lq d vlplodu zd| wr Qrupdo glvwulexwlrq wdeohv1
Wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh dqg wkh vloo ri wkh Vskhulfdo vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho duh vwdqgduglvhg wr
4/ vr wkdw zh rqo| qhhg rqh wdeoh wr vhuyh iru doo srvvleoh Vskhulfdo prghov1
Li |rx uhphpehu wkh Vskhulfdo irupxod=
iru f @
2@ 2@
|rx zloo uhdolvh wkdw hyhu|zkhuh wkh glvwdqfh +, dsshduv/ lw lv glylghg e| wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh
+@,1 Li zh vlpso| glylgh doo ri rxu glvwdqfh e| wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh/ zh vwdqgduglvh wr d udqjh
ri 4 cxqlw*1 Lq Wdeoh 45/ wkhuhiruh/
K
'
@
,
u '
@
Li/ dv lq rxu h{dpsoh/ zh kdyh d 83 e| 83 eorfn zlwk d udqjh ri lq xhqfh/ zh qhhg=
K Df
' ' ' feS.
@ 2f
, Df
u ' ' ' feS.
@ 2f
\rx pd| qrwh wkdw wkh 8 Euc wdeoh lv v|pphwulfdo/ vr lw grhvq*w pdwwhu zklfk zd| urxqg
|rx uhdg lw1
Qrwh= li |rx kdyh dq dqlvrwurslf vlwxdwlrq/ |rx qhhg wr doljq wkh eorfnv zlwk wkh d{hv ri wkh
dqlvrwurs| wr xvh wkhvh wdeohv1 Rwkhuzlvh/ xvh d frpsxwhu1
Qrz/ wklv ydoxh lv uhodwlyh wr d vloo ri 4/ vr zh qhhg wr pxowlso| lw e| wkh vloo ri rxu Vskhulfdo
frpsrqhqw lq wklv fdvh 57 (Ih2=
soxv wkh qxjjhw hhfw li lw zdv qrq0}hur1 Zh kdyh d zlwklq eorfn yduldqfh ri :195 (Ih2 jlylqj
xv d wkhruhwlfdo vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri ydoxhv lqvlgh wkh eorfn ri 51:9 (Ih1 Wkh yduldqfh ri
eorfn dyhudjhv wkh ehwzhhq eorfn yduldqfh lv/ wkhruhwlfdoo|=
Wu| wklv rqh= vkrz wkdw d 53 phwuh eorfn zrxog jlyh d zlwklq eorfn yduldqfh ri 61479 (Ih2
dqg d ehwzhhq eorfn vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 718: (Ih1
Zh kdyh frqfoxghg wkdw csrlqw* ydoxhv ruljlqdo vdpsohv kdyh d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 71<3
(Ih zklovw 83 phwuh vtxduh eorfnv kdyh d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri 7138 (Ih1 Wkh eorfnv dqg
srlqw vdpsohv zloo/ ri frxuvh/ kdyh wkh vdph dyhudjh ydoxh1 Zh fdqqrw fkdqjh wkh dyhudjh
ydoxh ryhu d ghsrvlw e| fkdqjlqj wkh vl}h ri wkh xqlw xqiruwxqdwho|1 Wkh wzr glvwulexwlrqv
zloo orrn olnh wklv=
Wkh uhvxowv duh vkrzq lq Iljxuh 44151 Iurp wklv judsk zh fdq vhh wkh cfrqglwlrqdo eldv*
txlwh fohduo|1 Iru fxwr ydoxhv ehorz wkh phdq/ wkh wrqqdjh lv kljkhu dqg wkh dyhudjh judgh
orzhu1 Iru fxwrv deryh wkh phdq/ wkh wrqqdjh vhohfwhg lv orzhu wkdq wkdw vxjjhvwhg e| srlqw
vdpsolqj1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkh dyhudjh judgh ri wkh uhfryhuhg pdwhuldo lv dovr orzhu1 Wklv phdqv
wkdw/ iru kljk fxwrv/ zh plqh ohvv wrqqdjh dqg orzhu judgh uhvxowlqj lq ohvv phwdo ryhudoo1
Lq pdq| plqhv/ wklv hhfw lv txdqwlhg dv d Plqh Fdoo Idfwru1
Iljxuh 4415= frpsdulvrq ri judgh2wrqqdjh fxuyhv iru vdpsohv dqg 83 phwuh eorfnv
Lw vkrxog eh idluo| reylrxv wkdw wkh fxuyhv zloo fkdqjh zlwk wkh vl}h dqg vkdsh ri wkh sursrvhg
plqlqj eorfn1 Wkh odujhu wkh eorfn/ wkh pruh lpsdfw rq wkh fxuyhv1 Wkh frqglwlrqdo eldv lv d
idfw ri olih dqg fdqqrw eh ljqruhg zlwk lpsxqlw| zkhq sodqqlqj d ixwxuh surmhfw1
Dyhudjhv zhuh dovr fdofxodwhg ryhu 83 irrw eorfnv ru sdqhov1 Wkh ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv iurp
wkhvh wkuhh gdwd vhwv duh vkrzq lq wkh wdeoh1
Wkhuh duh plqru glhuhqfhv lq wkh revhuyhg dyhudjh ydoxh fdxvhg prvwo| e| sdqhov zlwk ihz
lqwhulru vdpsohv dhfwlqj wkh ryhudoo uhvxowv1 Lq vslwh ri wklv/ lw fdq eh vhhq fohduo| wkdw wkh
Ilj 4417+d,= ruljlqdo Jhhyru vdpsohv/ wlq judgh Ilj 4417+e,= 433 irrw sdqho dyhudjhv/ wlq judgh
Vlqfh wkh ydoxhv duh kljko| vnhzhg/ lw pdnhv pruh vhqvh wr fdofxodwh dqg prgho wkh vhpl0
ydulrjudp rq wkh orjdulwkpv ri wkh ydoxhv1 Wklv dssurdfk lv glvfxvvhg lq pruh ghwdlo lq
vhfwlrq 4515161 Wkh h{shulphqwdo dqg prgho vhpl0ydulrjudp iru wkh orjdulwkp ri doo qrq0}hur
judgh ydoxhv lq wkh Jhhyru gdwd vhw lv vkrzq dv Iljxuh 44181
Iljxuh 4418= h{shulphqwdo dqg prgho vhpl0ydulrjudp iru orjdulwkp ri judgh/ Jhhyru Wlq
Plqh
Wkh wwhg prgho kdv d qxjjhw hhfw ri 3188 E*L}e (VqR22 dqg wzr Vskhulfdo frpsrqhqwv1
Wkh udqjhv ri lq xhqfh duh 53 dqg 483 ihhw zlwk vloov ri 317:8 E*L}e (VqR2 2 dqg 31758
dulwkphwlf phdq ri wkh orjdulwkpv ri judgh iru doo ri wkh vdpsohv zlwklq wkh eorfn
+dyhudjh orjdulwkp,
Wr frpsduh wkhvh gluhfwo| zh wkhq wrrn wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh dyhudjh judgh iru hdfk eorfn1
Zh qrz kdyh wzr jxuhv iru hdfk eorfn wkh dyhudjh ri wkh orjdulwkpv dqg wkh orjdulwkp ri
wkh dyhudjh1 D vfdwwhusorw zrxog vkrz wkdw wkhvh wzr jxuhv duh doprvw shuihfwo| fruuhodwhg
exw qrw wkh vdph1 Shukdsv d ehwwhu looxvwudwlrq lv wr vkrz |rx wkh klvwrjudp ri wkh wzr vhwv
ri qxpehuv1
Wkh eorfn dyhudjhv/ zkhq orjjhg/ kdyh dq dyhudjh ydoxh ri 61:639 +orje VqR2 ,1 Li zh wdnh
orjdulwkpv ri doo ri wkh ruljlqdo vdpsolqj dqg pdnh eorfn dyhudjhv ri wkh orjdulwkpv/ wkhvh
eorfnv wkhq dyhudjh 615445 +orje VqR2,1 Wklv lv h{dfwo| dqdorjrxv wr wkh vwdqgdug orjqrupdo
uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh phdq ri wkh orjdulwkpv +wkh phgldq, dqg wkh phdq ri wkh orjqrupdo
ydoxhv +vhh vhfwlrq 71414, Lw lv hdv| wr vhh wkh glhuhqfh lq wkh lpsdfw ri xvlqj wkh vdph fxwr
ydoxh rq hdfk ri wkhvh klvwrjudpv1
Iljxuh 441: vkrzv wkh frpsdulvrq ehwzhhq wkh wzr wkhruhwlfdo judgh2wrqqdjh fdofxodwlrqv1
Wkh glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq wkh h{shfwhg dyhudjh judgh dqg wkh uhfryhuhg judghv lv doduplqj1
Hyhq wkh ydvw lqfuhdvh lq wrqqdjh zloo qrw frpshqvdwh iru wkh pdmru glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq
h{shfwhg frvwv dqg h{shfwhg uhyhqxhv1 Lw lv wklv cfrqglwlrqdo eldv* wkdw zh glvfxvvhg lq vhfwlrq
:1516 xqghu wkh khdglqj ri uhjuhvvlrq hhfw1 Lw lv wklv vdph idfwru wkdw ohdgv wr idoolqj Plqh
Fdoo Idfwruv zkhq fxwrv duh udlvhg zlwkrxw uhjdug wr uhjuhvvlrq fruuhfwlrqv1
Lq jhqhudo/ wkh pruh vnhzhg wkh glvwulexwlrq dqg wkh kljkhu wkh qxjjhw hhfw rq wkh vhpl0
ydulrjudp prgho/ wkh zruvh wkh frqglwlrqdo eldv zloo dsshdu1 Lw lv lpshudwlyh wkdw vhohfwlrq
fdofxodwlrqv duh fduulhg rxw zlwk wkh vl}h dqg vkdsh ri wkh vhohfwlrq xqlw dv dq lqwhjudo sduw
ri wkh surfhvv1
41 hvwlpdwh d julg ri srlqwv ryhu wkh duhd/ vxshulpsrvh rxu vhohfwhg vkdsh dqg wkhq dyhudjh
doo ri wkh srlqwv lqvlgh wkh duhd1
51 gluhfwo| hvwlpdwh wkh dyhudjh ryhu wkh duhd e| prgli|lqj wkh nuljlqj htxdwlrqv1
Wkhuh duh wzr pdmru dgydqwdjhv wr wkh vhfrqg dssurdfk= +d, |rx rqo| kdyh wr vroyh rqh vhw
ri nuljlqj htxdwlrqv dqg +e, wkh vwdqgdug huuru jlyhq e| wkh nuljlqj v|vwhp uhihuv wr wkdw
dyhudjh ydoxh1 Gluhfw nuljlqj ri duhdv dqg yroxphv ohdgv wr frqghqfh ohyhov rq wkh qdo
hvwlpdwhv zklfk fdqqrw eh irxqg iurp d cjulg lqwhuvhfwlrq* dssurdfk1 Lq plqlqj dssolfdwlrqv/
Ohw xv frqvlghu wkh nuljlqj v|vwhp ghyhorshg lq Fkdswhu 43 dqg vhh krz lw zrxog fkdqjh zlwk
wkh gluhfw hvwlpdwlrq ri dq duhd ru yroxph1 Wkh ruglqdu| nuljlqj htxdwlrqv zhuh=
Qrz/ vxssrvh wkdw A lv wkh dyhudjh ryhu dq duhd/ krz zloo wkhvh whupv fkdqjhB
Iru wkh culjkw kdqg vlgh* ri rxu htxdwlrqv dqg iru wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh zh uhtxluh wkh
vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg wkh corfdwlrq* dw zklfk wkh ydoxh lv xqnqrzq1 Wkh
corfdwlrq* lv qrz dq duhd ru yroxph1 Ohw xv frqvlghu rqh vdpsoh zlwk wkh sdqho wr eh hvwlpdwhg1
Lw wxuqv rxw wkdw wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq d srlqw dqg dq duhd lv vlpso| wkh dyhudjh ri doo
wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp ydoxhv ehwzhhq wkh vlqjoh srlqw dqg hyhu| srlqw lq wkh duhd1 Dv ehiruh/
7 E} c A
wr jr rq wkh uljkw kdqg vlgh ri wkh htxdwlrqv dqg wr vxevwlwxwh lqwr wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1
Wklv odwwhu zloo hqg xs ehlqj=
Qrwlfh/ sduwlfxoduo| wkh 7EAc A whup1 Wklv zdv d olwwoh ghulvru| lq Fkdswhu 43 exw frphv lqwr
lwv rzq zlwk d yhqjhdqfh dw wklv srlqw1 Wkh odujhu wkh eorfn ehlqj hvwlpdwhg/ wkh odujhu wklv
whup zloo eh1 Wklv whup lv vxewudfwhg iurp wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh1 Zkdw wklv phdqv lq sodlq
zrugv lv wkdw wkh hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh iru dq duhd zloo eh orzhu wkdq wkdw iru +vd|, wkh fhqwudo
srlqw lq wkdw duhd1 Lq +Eulwlvk, Hqjolvk/ wklv vd|v \rx fdq hvwlpdwh wkh dyhudjh ryhu dq duhd
zlwk idu pruh frqghqfh wkdq |rx fdq vd| cvdpsoh khuh dqg |rx zloo jhw A 9 *1
Qrwh= rqfh |rx jhw wkh kdqj ri wklv/ |rx fdq vhh wkdw |rx fdq kdqgoh odujh vdpsohv +ru foxvwhuv
ri vdpsohv, lq d vlplodu zd|1 Lqvwhdg ri fdofxodwlqj E} c } li |rxu vdpsohv duh pruh wkdq
rqh csrlqw*/ |rx vlpso| fdofxodwh 7E} c } dqg uhdg wklv whup dv wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp
ehwzhhq doo wkh srlqwv lq vdpsoh dqg doo wkh srlqwv lq vdpsoh 1 \rxu nuljlqj htxdwlrqv zloo
orrn doprvw lghqwlfdo h{fhsw wkdw hyhu| zloo eh d 7 1
Wkh wdeohv lqfoxghg khuh fryhu wkh frpprqo| xvhg dx{loldu| ixqfwlrqv=
Dv d yhu| eulhi h{dpsoh rq wkh xvh ri dx{loldu| ixqfwlrqv/ zh vhohfw d vlqjoh 83 phwuh vtxduh
sdqho zlwk wkh Sdjh <8 vwxg| duhd1 Wklv eorfn frqwdlqv wzr lqwhuqdo vdpsohv/ zklfk zh zloo
xvh wr hvwlpdwh wkh eorfn dyhudjh1
Iru wkh nuljlqj htxdwlrqv/ zh zloo qhhg wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq hdfk vdpsoh dqg
wkh eorfn1 Wkh dx{loldu| ixqfwlrq ME,c K fdq eh irxqg xvlqj Wdeoh 48 vlqfh zh kdyh d Vskhulfdo
prgho1 Wkh vwdqgdug ixqfwlrq jlyhv wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp iru d srlqw rq wkh fruqhu ri wkh
eorfn1 Zh qhhg wr vsolw wkh sdqho xs lqwr irxu vhfwlrqv dqg uhfrpelqh wkh dx{loldu| ixqfwlrqv
wr jhw wkh ryhudoo dyhudjh1 Wkdw lv/ wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp ehwzhhq wkh srlqw vdpsoh dqg
wkh zkroh sdqho zloo eh wkh dyhudjh vhpl0ydulrjudp iru hdfk ri wkh irxu frpsrqhqw sdqhov
uhfrpelqhg lq sursruwlrq1
Wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho iru wkh Sdjh <8 gdwd lv Vskhulfdo/ udqjh 453 phwuhv/ vloo 57 (Ih2 1
zklfk zrunv rxw dw 3157:<1 Pxowlso|lqj wklv e| wkh vloo ri 57 (Ih2 / zh jhw=
7 E} c A ' DbebS
zklfk zrunv rxw dw 3163561 Pxowlso|lqj wklv e| wkh vloo ri 57 (Ih2 / zh jhw=
7 E}2 c A ' .2DD.
Wkdw lv=
surgxflqj d nuljlqj vwdqgdug huuru ri 41<4 (Ih dqg d <3( frqghqfh lqwhuydo rq wkh wuxh
eorfn dyhudjh ri 6<1;; wr 7914; (Ih zklfk lv idluo| zlgh1 Krzhyhu/ jlyhq wkdw zh rqo| kdyh
wzr vdpsohv lq d wrwdo ri 5/833 p2/ pd|eh wklv lv qrw vxusulvlqj1
Iljxuh 441<= nuljlqj vwdqgdug huuruv iru 83 phwuh sdqhov/ Sdjh <8 gdwd
Iljxuh 44143= sro|jrqdo duhd hvwlpdwhg xvlqj txdgudwlf uhvlgxdov/ Zroifdps dtxlihu
Jhrvwdwlvwlfldqv gr lw RN
dqg Vwdqirug Xqlyhuvlw| eurxjkw rqh rxw vkruwo| diwhu wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri clqglfdwru nuljlqj*
zklfk uhdg=
zlwk d udwkhu ihwfklqj slfwxuh ri d gxfn lq klnlqj jhdu1 Rxu rzq prghvw frqwulexwlrq wr
wklv surolihudwlrq zdv Pxowlyduldeoh Xqlyhuvdo Fr0Nuljlqj +zrun lw rxw,1 Li wkhuh lv hqrxjk
ghpdqg dprqjvw |rx/ wkh uhdghuvkls/ zh zloo lqfoxgh wklv lq d vhfrqg yroxph dorqj zlwk vxfk
xvhixo whfkqltxhv dv jhrvwdwlvwlfdo vlpxodwlrq dqg pd|eh hyhq qrq0olqhdu jhrvwdwlvwlfv1
Iru wkh prphqw zh zloo glvfxvv wkh iroorzlqj=
looxvwudwhg frslrxvo| zlwk wkh gdwd vhwv zklfk zh kdyh vwxglhg wkurxjkrxw wkh uhvw ri wkh errn1
} ' Kf n K f n K2t n 5
li wkh wuhqg zdv ri d txdgudwlf irup dqg vr rq1 Wkh 5 ydoxh khuh uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghwuhqghg
uhvlgxdo ydoxh1 Reylrxvo|/ wkh frpsoh{lw| ri wkh wuhqg htxdwlrq zrxog eh glfwdwhg e| wkh
frpsoh{lw| ri wkh zd| wkh ch{shfwhg* ydoxhv fkdqjh ryhu wkh vwxg| duhd1
Qrz/ ohw xv frqvlghu rxu zhljkwhg dyhudjh hvwlpdwru=
zkhuh
n 2 n n n 6 '
Li zh sxw wklv lq frqwh{w zlwk wkh idfw wkdw hdfk } frqwdlqv d wuhqg frpsrqhqw/ rxu hvwlpdwru
fdq eh h{suhvvhg dv iroorzv=
S S S S S
} ' Kf n K f n K2 t n 5
li zh kdg d vlpsoh olqhdu w|sh wuhqg1 Uhphpehu wkdw wkh K duh wkh frh!flhqwv ri wkh wuhqg
htxdwlrq wkdw lv/ vlpso| qxpehuv ghwhuplqhg e| wkh irup ri wkh ryhudoo wuhqg1 Wklv phdqv
wkdw wkh| duh frqvwdqwv dqg fdq eh wdnhq rxwvlgh wkh vxppdwlrq vljq=
S S S S S
A 9 ' } ' Kf n K f n K2 t n 5
Uhphpehulqj dovr wkdw wkh zhljkwv dgg xs wr 4/ wklv uhgxfhv ixuwkhu wr=
S S S S
A 9 ' } ' Kf n K f n K2 t n 5
A ' Kf n K fA n K2 tA n 5A
Frpsduh A zlwk A 91 Erwk frqwdlq wkh frqvwdqw whup Kf / vr wkdw lv fdwhuhg iru1 Li zh kdyh
uhpryhg doo ri wkh wuhqg/ wkh whup
S
5
zloo eh dq xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwru ri 5A surylghg wkh zhljkwv dgg xs wr 41 Wkh rqo| uhdo sureohp
lv wkh pdlq wuhqg whupv1 Zh qhhg wr hqvxuh wkdw wkhvh edodqfh rxw/ lq rughu wr hqvxuh wkdw
A 9 lv vwloo dq xqeldvvhg hvwlpdwru iru A 1 Wkdw lv/ zh kdyh wr pdwfk=
S S
K f n K2 t zlwk K fA n K2 tA
Wkh vlpsohvw zd| zrxog vhhp wr eh wr pdwfk hdfk ri wkh whupv lq wxuq1 Wkdw lv=
S
f ' fA
S
t ' tA
n 2 n n n 6 '
f n 2 f2 n f n n 6 f6 ' fA
t n 2t2 n t n n 6t6 ' tA
Zkhq zh kdg rqh frqglwlrq rq rxu hvwlpdwlrq yduldqfh/ zh lqwurgxfhg d odjudqjldq pxowlsolhu
wr jhw wkh h{wud htxdwlrq dqg dq h{wud xqnqrzq lqwr wkh v|vwhp1 Zh vlpso| jhqhudolvh
wkdw dssurdfk khuh1 Rxu ruljlqdo b qrz ehfrphv bf dqg zh lqwurgxfh wzr qhz bv wr frsh
zlwk wkh wzr qhz frqglwlrqv1 Li zh kdg pruh whupv lq wkh wuhqg/ zh zrxog kdyh pruh bv1 Zh
plqlplvh=
S S S
j2" 2bf E 2b E f fA 2b2 E t tA
e| doo ri wkh zhljkwv dqg hdfk ri wkh bv lq wxuq1 Wklv zloo jlyh xv E6 n htxdwlrqv iru d
olqhdu wuhqg +lq wzr glphqvlrqv,/ E6 n S iru d wzr glphqvlrqdo txdgudwlf/ E6 n f iru d
wkuhh glphqvlrqdo txdgudwlf dqg vr rq1 Li wkh wuhqg jhwv wrr frpsoh{/ zh zloo dgg vr pdq|
frqglwlrqv wr wkh hvwlpdwru wkhuh zloo eh qr urrp wr dfwxdoo| surgxfh d orfdo hvwlpdwh$ Lw
vkrxog eh dovr eruqh lq plqg wkdw/ wkh pruh frqglwlrqv zh sxw xsrq rxu hvwlpdwh/ wkh pruh
vxe0rswlpdo wkh uhvxow zloo eh1
Wr uhwxuq wr rxu plqlplvdwlrq1 Ehiruh |rx +ghdu uhdghu, vwduw jhwwlqj qhuyrxv derxw
frpsolfdwhg fdofxoxv/ ohw xv mxvw srlqw rxw wkdw wklv lv lghqwlfdo wr wkh ruglqdu| nuljlqj fdvh
h{fhsw iru wkh h{wud frqglwlrqv1 Zkhq zh glhuhqwldwh hdfk ri wkh h{wud whupv/ doo ri wkh elwv
zloo glvdsshdu h{fhsw wkh rqhv gluhfwo| uhodwhg wr wkdw sduwlfxodu zhljkw1 Wkh qhz nuljlqj
htxdwlrqv/ zloo orrn uhpdundeo| vlplodu wr wkh rog rqhv1 Ehdu lq plqg/ zh duh fxuuhqwo|
dvvxplqj d olqhdu wuhqg1
Lq idfw/ ruglqdu| nuljlqj lv dfwxdoo| d vshfldo fdvh ri wklv zlwk d frqvwdqw xqfkdqjlqj wuhqg1
Pdwkhurq fdoohg wklv xqlyhuvdo nuljlqj lq klv ruljlqdo Wkhru| ri Uhjlrqdolvhg Yduldeohv1 Wkh
vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho lq wkh nuljlqj htxdwlrqv lv/ ri frxuvh/ wkh rqh ghulyhg iurp wkh uhvlgxdov
iurp wkh wuhqg1
Iljxuh 4515= Zroifdps/ vhdufk udglxv :8/ nuljlqj zlwk orfdo olqhdu wuhqg
Lw zrxog eh dgydqwdjhrxv li zh frxog gurs wkh rughu ri wkh wuhqg qhhghg wr nuljh wkh julg
srlqwv dw wkh vfdoh ri dq duhd zlwk d :8 ploh udglxv1 Uhphpehu wkdw wkh ixoo txdgudwlf vxuidfh
zdv wwhg wr dq duhd 583 e| 4;3 plohv1 Vxuho| d olqhdu vxuidfh zrxog eh vx!flhqw rq d vpdoohu
vfdoh1 Zh xvh furvv ydolgdwlrq wr khos xv pdnh wklv ghflvlrq1 D furvv ydolgdwlrq h{huflvh zlwk
wkh vdph vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho dqg olqhdu wuhqg frqvwudlqwv zdv fduulhg rxw1 Lq wklv fdvh zh
rqo| vroyh E6 n htxdwlrqv hdfk wlph1 Wkh dyhudjh dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq +zlwk ? ,
ri wkh furvv ydolgdwlrq vwdwlvwlfv zhuh irxqg wr eh 313563 dqg 41446: uhvshfwlyho|1 Wklv lv
doprvw lghqwlfdo wr wkh vwdwlvwlfv rewdlqhg zkhq xvlqj d orfdo txdgudwlf w dqg xvh ihzhu h{wud
htxdwlrqv1
D qhz nuljhg pds zdv surgxfhg dqg lv vkrzq lq Iljxuh 45151 Lw lv lpphgldwho| dssduhqw
wkdw wklv pds lv pruh vwdeoh dqg +suredeo|, pruh uhdolvwlf hvshfldoo| durxqg wkh hgjhv1 Wkh
wuhqg frpsrqhqw hqvxuhv wkdw/ li ydoxhv duh ulvlqj wrzdugv wkh hgjhv ri wkh pds/ wkh| nhhs
ulvlqj dqg gr qrw ohyho r dv wkh| zrxog zlwk ruglqdu| nuljlqj ru lqyhuvh glvwdqfh lqwhusrodwlrq1
Wkh vwdqgdug huuruv iru wklv pds duh vkrzq lq Iljxuh 45161 Wkhvh vwdqgdug huuruv frqwdlq
wkh uholdelolw| phdvxuh iru wkh orfdo wuhqg wwlqj dv zhoo dv wkdw iru wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh
cvwdwlrqdu|* uhvlgxdo frpsrqhqw1
Xqlyhuvdo nuljlqj fdq dovr eh xvhg wr hvwlpdwh ydoxhv ryhu duhdv dqg yroxphv dv glvfxvvhg
lq Fkdswhu 441 Wkh pdmru idfwru wr eh uhphpehuhg khuh lv wkdw zh kdyh wr frqvwuxfw dq
dyhudjh iru wkh wuhqg ryhu wkh ghvluhg duhd +ru yroxph, dv zhoo dv wkh dyhudjhv iru wkh vhpl0
ydulrjudp ydoxhv1 Wkh wuhqg whupv fA dqg tA kdyh wr eh uhsodfhg e| wkh dyhudjh ri doo ri wkh
fr0ruglqdwhv zlwklq wkh duhd wr eh hvwlpdwhg1 Zlwk olqhdu wuhqgv vxfk dv wklv/ wkh uhtxlvlwh
jxuhv duh vlpso| wkh fhqwuh ri judylw| ri wkh duhd f 7A c t7A 1 Zlwk kljkhu rughu wuhqgv/ wkh
dyhudjhv iru hdfk whup pxvw eh fdofxodwhg ryhu wkh duhd wr eh hvwlpdwhg1 Wklv lv dqrwkhu jrrg
uhdvrq wr nhhs wkh rughu ri wkh wuhqg vxuidfh grzq1
zkhuh j2 uhsuhvhqwv wkh wrwdo vloo ru csrlqw* yduldqfh1 Wkh yduldqfh ri wkh hvwlpdwruv lv=
[
?
[
?
2 2
jA 9 ' j E} c }
' '
wkdw lv/ wkh wrwdo yduldqfh ohvv wkh yduldqfh ri ydoxhv dprqjvw wkh vdpsohv lq wkh zhljkwhg
dyhudjh hvwlpdwru1 Lq hlwkhu fdvh/ doo ri wkh uhtxluhg whupv duh surgxfhg lq vhwwlqj xs dqg
vroylqj wkh uhohydqw nuljlqj htxdwlrqv1 Qr h{wud frpsxwdwlrq lv uhtxluhg rwkhu wkdq wkh dfwxdo
edfnwudqvirupdwlrq1
Frqghqfh ohyhov rq wkh hvwlpdwh fdq eh xvhg eh uhihuulqj wr Vlfkho*v wkhru| +vhh Fkdswhu
7,/ zkhuh wkh frqghqfh idfwruv duh surgxfhg xvlqj wkh wkhruhwlfdo irupxod=
2
[R ' i T j Rj&
2 &
Lw orrnv olnh zh fdq dghtxdwho| uhsurgxfh wkh dyhudjh wlq judgh/ exw zh duh vwloo sodjxhg
vrphzkdw e| wkh uhjuhvvlrq hhfw1 Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh hvwlpdwhv lv vwloo pxfk
vpdoohu wkdq wkh wuxh csrlqw* vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ vr zh zloo whqg wr xqghu0hvwlpdwh kljk ydoxhv
dqg ryhu0hvwlpdwh orz ydoxhv li zh xvh orjqrupdo nuljlqj dv d pdsslqj wrro1
Iljxuh 451;= srvw sorw ri cvdpsohv* gdwd vhw iurp UVD jrog plqh
Wklv duhd zdv glylghg lqwr 433 phwuh vtxduh eorfnv ri jurxqg1 Wkh vdpsohv lq wkh 8 phwuhv
dorqj rqh vlgh ri wkh eorfn zhuh fodvvlhg dv wkh cidfh* vdpsolqj1 Vwdqgdug hvwlpdwlrq surfh0
gxuh lq pdq| UVD jrog plqhv lv vwloo wr xvh wkh dyhudjh ri dydlodeoh idfh vdpsohv wr hvwlpdwh
wkh frqwhqw ri wkh eorfn1 Wkh judsk ehorz vkrzv d frpsdulvrq ehwzhhq wkh idfh ydoxh dqg
wkh eorfn ydoxh ryhu wklv vwxg| duhd1
ifc fj li erwk vdpsohv duh ehorz wkh glvfulplqdwru ydoxh/ jlylqj d glhuhqfh ri }hur
ic j li erwk vdpsohv duh deryh wkh cfxwr*/ jlylqj d glhuhqfh ri }hur
Wkh fdofxodwhg judsk zloo eh wkh dyhudjh ri wkhvh glhuhqfhv dqg uhsuhvhqwv wkh suhglfwdelolw|
ri ehlqj deryh ru ehorz wkh cfxwr* ri 73 yhoyhwohdi zhhgv shu txdgudw wkdw lv/ krz zhoo zh
fdq suhglfw zkhwkhu zh duh lq wkh pdlq +yduldeoh, srsxodwlrq ru wkh kljk ydoxh ohvv yduldeoh
duhdv1
Lw lv suredeo| zruwk vd|lqj wkdw wkh vloo rq dq lqglfdwru vhpl0ydulrjudp lv qrw uhdoo| d
phdvxuh ri yduldelolw| lq dq| devroxwh whupv1 Lw lv/ udwkhu/ d uh hfwlrq ri wkh sursruwlrqdo
vsolw ehwzhhq wkh deryh dqg ehorz srsxodwlrqv1 Wkh kljkhvw lqglfdwru vhpl0ydulrjudp zloo
+wkhruhwlfdoo|, eh wkh rqh frqvwuxfwhg rq wkh phgldq ydoxh zkhuh 83( ri wkh vdpsohv ehfrph
c3* dqg 83( ehfrph c4* dqg zh kdyh/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh pd{lpxp qxpehu ri glhuhqfhv1
Wkh uhdo dvvhvvphqw ri krz suhglfwdeoh wkh lqglfdwruv duh lv wkh udwlr ri vloo wr qxjjhw hhfw
dqg wkh ohqjwk ri wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh1 Lq wklv h{dpsoh/ wkh qxjjhw hhfw lv 63( ri wkh wrwdo
khljkw ri wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkhuh zloo eh vrph xqfhuwdlqw| dw vkruw
glvwdqfhv derxw zkhwkhu zh vwd| lq wkh vdph srsxodwlrq ru qrw1 Jlyhq wkdw xqfhuwdlqw|/ zh
fdq wkhq kdyh vrph frqghqfh lq frqwlqxlw| xs wr durxqg 88 phwuhv1
Iljxuh 45144 vkrzv wkh nuljhg pds ri wkh lqglfdwru ydoxhv1 Wklv pds fdq eh ydulrxvo|
lqwhusuhwhg1 Wkh prvw frpprq zd| lv wr uhdg wkh suhglfwhg ydoxhv dv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh
xqnqrzq ydoxh lv deryh wkh fxwr ydoxh1 Zlwk wklv lqwhusuhwdwlrq lq plqg/ zh fdq orrn dw
Iljxuh 45144 dqg vhh wkdw wkhuh lv d }rqh lq wkh vrxwk0hdvw zklfk lv doprvw jxdudqwhhg wr krog
pruh wkdq 73 yhoyhwohdi zhhgv shu txdgudw1 Wklv duhd vkrxog suredeo| eh vwxglhg lq ghwdlo
ru/ shukdsv/ mxvw vsud|hg udwkhu pruh khdylo| wkdq wkh uhvw ri wkh hog$
Iurp Iljxuh 45144/ zh fdq mxgjh zkhuh wkh cderyh 73* srsxodwlrq lv suhgrplqdqw1 Lq wkh
ruljlqdo dqdo|vlv/ zh dovr vdz d euhdn ehwzhhq wkh txdgudwv zlwk dqg zlwkrxw revhuydeoh
yhoyhwohdi zhhgv1 Zh uhshdwhg wkh deryh surfhgxuh iru d cglvfulplqdwru ydoxh* ri 4 zhhg shu
txdgudw1 Iljxuh 45145 vkrzv wkh vhpl0ydulrjudp dqg Iljxuh 45146 wkh nuljhg pds iru zkdw lv/
hvvhqwldoo|/ wkh suhvhqfh ri yhoyhwohdi zhhgv1 Zh vhh wkh vdph vruw ri frqwlqxlw| dw wklv fxwr/
zlwk d qxjjhw hhfw ri 63( ri wkh wrwdo vloo khljkw1 Wkh frqwlqxlw| lv ehwwhu/ krzhyhu/ dw 98
phwuhv1 Rqh rwkhu frpsolfdwlrq vkrzv xs rq wkh h{shulphqwdo vhpl0ydulrjudp1
Wkhuh vhhpv wr eh pxfk ehwwhu frqwlqxlw| lq wkh qruwk2vrxwk gluhfwlrq wkdq lq dq| rwkhu
gluhfwlrq frqvlghuhg1 Iru wkh sxusrvhv ri wklv eulhi looxvwudwlrq/ zh ljqruhg wklv skhqrphqrq1
Krzhyhu/ li |rx orrn dw Iljxuh 45146/ |rx zloo vhh wkdw wkhuh lv ghqlwho| vrph vwuxfwxuh lq
wklv duhd wkdw dhfwv wkh jurzwk ri wkh zhhgv1
Wkh hdvwhuq kdoi ri wklv hog lv doprvw wrwdoo| lqihvwhg zlwk zhhgv wkh suredelolw| ri zhhg
suhvhqfh lv ryhu 31;8 iru doprvw doo ri wkh culjkw kdqg vlgh* ri wkh pds1 Rq wkh zhvwhuq vlgh/
wkh olnho| lqflghqfh ri zhhg lv pxfk orzhu zlwk dq doprvw wrwdo devhqfh lq wkh fhqwudo zhvwhuq
duhd1
Lw lv dovr qrz txlwh reylrxv wkdw wkhuh lv vrph frqwuro rq wkh zhhg srsxodwlrq zklfk uxqv
qruwk2vrxwk zlwklq wkh hog1 Ixuwkhu vwxg| lq wklv duhd zrxog eh dlphg dw lghqwli|lqj wkh
frqwurov rq wklv qruwk2vrxwk vwuxfwxuh dqg rq wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh zhvwhuq dqg hdvwhuq
kdoyhv ri wkh hog1
Qrwh= Lqglfdwru frglqj fdq dovr eh h{wuhpho| xvhixo zkhq ghdolqj zlwk qrq0txdqwlwdwlyh
ru fdwhjrulfdo yduldeohv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li |rx zdqwhg wr nqrz zkhwkhu odqg xvdjh dhfwhg d
sduwlfxodu yduldeoh/ |rx frxog frgh d vshflf odqg xvh dv c4* dqg doo ri wkh rwkhuv dv c3* dqg
vhh zkdw vruw ri vhpl0ydulrjudp |rx jhw1 Lq jhrorjlfdo dssolfdwlrqv/ rqh fdq xvh lqglfdwruv iru
plqhudolvdwlrq w|shv/ krvw urfn w|shv dqg vr rq1
Udqnlqj wkh wrwdo vfdoorsv fdxjkw/ zh qg wkdw wkhuh lv d vwurqj wuhqg lq wkh ydoxhv1 D
vwdqgdug wuhqg vxuidfh dqdo|vlv +vhh vhfwlrq :1616, surgxfhv dq Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh wdeoh
zklfk lv vkrzq ehorz1
Lw lv idluo| reylrxv iurp wklv wdeoh wkdw wkh wuhqg lq wkh ydoxhv lv yhu| vwurqj dqg/ shukdsv/
pruh frpsoh{ wkdq wkh fxelf htxdwlrq uh hfwv1 Krzhyhu/ vlqfh wkh vriwzduh rqo| jrhv xs wr
fxelf/ ohw xv jr zlwk wkh rz iru wklv looxvwudwlrq1
Iljxuh 45149= vfdoorsv/ h{shulphqwdo dqg prgho vhpl0ydulrjudpv iru uhvlgxdov ri udqn
wudqvirup iurp fxelf vxuidfh
Vlqfh zh kdyh d vwurqj wuhqg ri fxelf irup/ zh dovr fkhfnhg wkh furvv ydolgdwlrq xvlqj d
txdgudwlf wuhqg dqg rewdlqhg d phdq dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq rq wkh huuru vwdwlvwlf ri 3134<9
dqg 31<<3: uhvshfwlyho|1 Vrphzkdw hqfrxudjhg e| wklv/ zh gursshg wkh orfdo wuhqg lq wkh
nuljlqj wr d olqhdu h{suhvvlrq1 Wklv jdyh huuru vwdwlvwlfv zlwk dyhudjh dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq
htxdo wr 31344: dqg 41367 uhvshfwlyho|1
Iru frpsdulvrq/ zh xvhg xqlyhuvdo nuljlqj zlwk wzr vhwv ri frqglwlrqv=
41 fxelf wuhqg dqg d vhdufk udglxv ri 319/ pxfk odujhu wkdq wkh udqjh ri lq xhqfh ri 315:8>
Wkh uhvxowv duh vkrzq dv Iljxuhv 4514: dqg 4514;1 Wkh ylvxdo glhuhqfh lv lpsuhvvlyh1 Lw lv
reylrxv wkdw wkh orzhu rughu wuhqg hyhq zlwk d vkruwhu vhdufk udglxv lv idu pruh vwdeoh
wkdq wu|lqj wr w d kljkhu rughu fxelf vxuidfh orfdoo| ryhu hdfk julg srlqw1
Wkh vwdqgdug huuruv iru wkh wzr pdsv duh yluwxdoo| lghqwlfdo1 Xvh wkh dffrpsdq|lqj
vriwzduh wr yhuli| wklv1 Iljxuh 4514< vkrzv wkh qdo vwdqgdug huuruv iru nuljlqj xvlqj wkh udqn
xqlirup +shufhqwloh, wudqvirupdwlrq/ wkh Vskhulfdo vhpl0ydulrjudp prgho iru wkh uhvlgxdov dqg
wkh olqhdu wuhqg orfdoo|1
Iljxuh 4514;= vfdoorsv/ nuljlqj uhvxowv iru udqn wudqvirup zlwk olqhdu wuhqg
46161 Vfhswlfv
Sklols/ J1P1 dqg Zdwvrq/ G1I1/ Pdwkhurqldq jhrvwdwlvwlfv 0 Txr ydglvB/ 4<;9/ Pdwkhpdwlfdo
Jhrorj|/ 4;/ ss1 <6044:1 57 sdjhv rq zkdw d frqghqfh wulfn jhrvwdwlvwlfv lv1 Odwhu frslhv ri
Pdwk Jhro frqwdlq ylwulrolf ohwwhuv lq uhvsrqvh wr wkh Sklols dqg Zdwvrq +xquhihuhhg, duwlfoh1
Vkxuw}/ U1 I1/ 4<;8/ Ohwwhu wr wkh Hglwru1 Mrxuqdo ri wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Dvvrfldwlrq iru
Pdwkhpdwlfdo Jhrorj|/ 4:/ ss1 ;940;9;1 \rx fdq dovr qg Ere lq wkh 4<;9 DSFRP surfhhg0
lqjv/ zkhuh kh dqg Dqguh Mrxuqho doprvw fdph wr eorzv gxulqj txhvwlrq wlph1
Phunv/ Mdq/ Hyhu| sxeolfdwlrq lq plqlqj vrph wlph ehwzhhq 4<<5 dqg 4<<7$$$$ Fkhfn
Hqjlqhhulqj dqg Plqlqj Mrxuqdo wkurxjk wr wkh Qruwkhuq Plqhu qhzvsdshuv iru Jhrvwdwlvwlfv
ru yrrgrr vwdwlvwlfv1
% E % E % E % E % E % E
Df fffff Df Seeb f HHfH 2f 2fD . f 2 2S ff fbf2
eD f2D. eH SSeS 2b HbD. b 2f.eb fb 2 SDS ffb 2e
ef f2D eS SHeb 2H bf H 2fbSb fH 2efHb ffH DDb
D f HD ee .fSf 2. b2SH . 22f f. 2eD. ff. be.
f fD2ee e2 .2.b 2S be S 2eee fS 2D2 ffS 2 Hb
2D fS.eD ef .Df. 2D bSff D 2.f fD 2D.DH ffD 2bfD
2f fHeS H ..ee 2e b..e e 2b. fe 2SD2 ff .bf
D f Se S .bb 2 bbDe 222S2 f 2.e.H fffD HbfS
f 2HS e H2Df 22 2fe 2 22D. f2 2H.H2 fff e2Seb
D Seeb 2 HD22 2 2f D 22bfe f fbf2 ffffD ee.2
Wdeoh 61 Shufhqwdjh srlqwv ri wkh 2 glvwulexwlrq
D ' 2 e D S . H f 2 2e "
D2 ' Se bbD 2D. 22eS 2 f2 2 ef 2 SH 2 Hb 2eb 2e b 2eb 2De
2 HD bff bS b2D b f b b D b . bef be beD bDf
f bDD2 b2.. b. bf Hbe HHH. HHeD H.HS H.eD HS b HD2S
e ..fb Sbee SDb S HH S2DS SS Sfbe Sfe DbSe Db2 D..e DS2H
D SSfH D.HS Defb Db2 DfDf ebDf eH.S eHH e. D eS.H eD2. e SD
S DbH. De e.D. eD e e H. e2He e2f. ee. efSf efff He SSb
. DDb e. . e e. e2f b.2 HSS .H. .2S S . D.D ef 2 f
H D H eeDb efSS H H SH. DH Dff e H e. 2He D 2b2H
b D. e2DS HS S eH2 .e 2b 2 f . f. 2bff 2.f.
f ebSD ef .fH e.H 2S 2. D f.2 2b.H 2b 2. . 2D H
eHee bH2 DH. D. 2fe fbD f2 2beH 2HDe 2.HH 2Sfb 2efe
2 e.e. HHD ebf 2Db fS 2bbS 2b 2Heb 2.D 2SH. 2DfD 22bS
eSS. HfS e .b f2D 2bD 2H 2 2.S. 2S. 2Sfe 2e2f 22fS
e eSff . b ee 2 2bDH 2HeH 2.Se 2Sbb 2Sf2 2D e 2 eb 2
D eDe SH2 2H. fDS 2bf 2.bf 2.f. 2Se 2Dee 2e.D 22HH 2fSS
S eebe S e 2 b ff. 2HD2 2.e 2SD. 2Db 2ebe 2e2D 22 D 2ff
. eeD Db2 b. 2bSD 2Hf 2Sbb 2Se 2DeH 2eDf 2 H 2bf bSf
H eee DDD Sf 2b2H 2.. 2SS 2D.. 2Df 2e2 2 e2 2Df b.
b e H D22 2. 2HbD 2.ef 2S2H 2Dee 2e.. 2 .H 2 fH 2e H.H
2f e D eb fbH 2HSS 2. 2Dbb 2De 2ee. 2 eH 22.H 2fH2 He
2 e 2D eS. f.2 2Hef 2SHD 2D. 2eHH 2e2f 2 2 22Df 2fDe H2
22 e f ee feb 2H. 2SS 2Deb 2eSe 2 b. 22b. 222S 2f2H .H
2 e2.b e22 f2H 2.bS 2Sef 2D2H 2ee2 2 .D 22.D 22fe 2ffD .D.
2e e2Sf ef ffb 2..S 2S2 2DfH 2e2 2 DD 22DD 2H bHe .
2D e2e2 HD 2bb 2.Db 2Sf 2ebf 2efD 2 . 22 S 2SD bSe .
2S e22D Sb 2b.D 2.e 2DH. 2e.e 2 HH 2 2 222f 2eH beS Sb
2. e2f De 2bSf 2.2H 2D.2 2eDb 2 . 2 fD 22fe 2 2 b f S.2
2H ebS ef 2be. 2.e 2DDH 2eeD 2 Db 22b 2bf 2H bD SDe
2b eH 2H 2b e 2.f 2DeD 2e 2 2 eS 22.H 2.. 2fe bf S H
f e. S 2b22 2Sbf 2D e 2e2 2 e 22SS 2SD 2fb2 HH. S22
2 eeb 2bD 2bf 2SSH 2D2 2 bb 2 22ee 2e2 2f.f HSe Dbe
e e f 2.S 2HH 2SDf 2ebe 2 Hf 22be 222D 22 2fDf He DSb
S e 2Db 2HSS 2S e 2e.. 2 Se 22.. 22fb 2fS 2f H2e De.
H efbH 2eD 2HD2 2Sb 2eS 2 eb 22S2 2be 2fb 2f. HfH D2.
ef efHD 2 2 2H b 2SfS 2eeb 2 S 22eb 2Hf 2f.. 2ff .b Dfb
Sf eff Df 2.DH 2D2D 2 SH 22De 2S. 2fb. bb b. .ff Hb
2f b2f f.2 2SHf 2ee. 22bf 2.D 2fH. 2fS bf H e SfH 2De
" He 2bbS 2SfD 2 .2 22e 2fbb 2ff b H H .D2 D. fff
Wdeoh 8+e,= 518 shu fhqw srlqwv ri 8 glvwulexwlrq
D ' 2 e D S . H f 2 2e "
D 2' Se.H .bbD HSe2 HbbS b2H b . beH2 bDS. bSHS b.S. bb.2 fH
2 HD bff b. b2D b f b b S b . bef be beS bDf
.ee Sfe Dee Df eHH e. eS2 eDe ee2 e e e2 bf
e 222 fSD bb.b bSfD b Se bb. bf.e HbHf HHee H.D HD H2D.
D ff He e ..Se . HH .eS Sb.H SHD S.D. SSb SD2D S2.H SfD
S HH .2Sf SDbb S22. DbHH DH2f DSbD DSff DeS D SS D. eHeb
. Hf. SDe2 DHbf DD2 D2HD Db ebbD eHbb e.S eSSS eeD ee2
H .D. SfDb DeS DfD eH. eSD2 eD2b ee e2bD e2ff be. S.f
b .2fb D.D Df.H e.H eeHe e 2f eb. ef2 bSe HSH Se
f Sb . DeDS eH2S eeSH e2 S ef.2 bDf HDD .. S2 SD fHf
S.2e D2DS eS f e2.D efee HH .Db SSe D2S e f . 2HH
2 SDDe DfbS ee.e e2 Hb .2H Sf. D2 .e 2.. fb 2.2D
See ebSD e e. bbS .S. Sfe eH HH 2Df D 2Hb 2DbD
e S2bH eHD. e2e2 Hb2 SS Df Hf 2HD e. fDf 2.Hb 2eH.
D S2ff e.SD eD Hfe D.S eD 2b bb fSf 2bS 2.f 2 bD
S SD eSH. ef.. .2b Df2 e 2b 2D 2bHS 2HHb 2S2D 2 S
. Sfe2 eSb ef SSD e H 2.. DS fS 2b22 2H2D 2DSf 22e.
H Db.H eDSf bDe SfH H2 22 ff ffD 2HSS 2.Sb 2Df 2H.
b Db22 eDfH bf DDb .2 fD 2bDS 2H. 2.2f 2eD2 2
2f DH. eeS HDb DD 2Hb 2H ff. 2b 2..e 2S.S 2efH 2fHD
2 DH2. ee2f Hb e.D 2Df fbf 2bSb 2H.e 2. D 2S . 2 SH 2fe2
22 D.HS e H .H eef 2D fDD 2b e 2H b 2.ff 2Sf2 2 2ff
2 D.Df e eb .Df efH H f2 2bf2 2HfH 2SSH 2D.f 22bb bSH
2e D.. e b .2 .b DD 2bbD 2H.e 2..b 2Sef 2De 22Sb b D
2D DSHS e2b Sbe D 2b 2bSb 2HeH 2.D 2S 2DD 22e2 bfS
2S DSDb e2SD S.f 2b fD 2beD 2H2e 2.2b 2Dbf 2eb 22. H.H
2. DS e2e2 Se. f. fH 2b2 2Hf2 2.f. 2DSH 2eSb 2bD HD
2H DSf e22 S2S 2HS fS 2bf 2.H2 2SH. 2De. 2eeH 2.e H2b
2b DDHH e2f Sf. 2S. fee 2HHe 2.S 2SSb 2D2b 2e f 2De Hf.
f DDSH eH2 DHb 2Df f2S 2HS. 2.eS 2SD 2D 2e2 2 S .H.
2 DD eeb DD. 2H 2bbD 2H S 2.D 2S2f 2eHf 2 H 2f .Df
e Debb e2f D2b b 2bSH 2HfH 2SHH 2Db 2eD 2 D 2f.D ..
S De. efbe DfD S. 2bee 2.HD 2SSe 2DSb 2e2b 2 2b 2feb SH.
H DeeS ef. eH eD 2b2 2.S 2Se 2DeH 2ef. 2 f. 2f2. SS
ef De2e efD eS 2S 2bfe 2.ee 2S2e 2D2b 2 HH 22HH 2ff. S .
Sf D2HS b2D e ffH 2.HS 2S2. 2Df. 2e2 22.f 2Sb HH2 eH2
2f DD2 HfD 22. 2Hbe 2S.e 2DD 2 bD 22bb 2D. 2fDD .Sf f
" Df2e SHb S 2.HS 2DS. 2efH 22HH 2b2 2feH beD Sef fff
Wdeoh 9= shufhqwdjh srlqwv ri wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw o zkhq 4 ' f
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45 46
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343
3137 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353
3139 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363
313; 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374
3143 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384
3145 41394 41394 41394 41394 41394 41394 41394 41395 41395
3147 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5
3149 413;5 413;5 413;5 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6
314; 413<6 413<6 413<6 413<6 413<6 413<6 413<6 413<6 413<6
3153 41436 41437 41437 41437 41437 41437 41437 41437 41437
3163 4148; 4148; 4148< 4148< 4148< 41493 41493 41493 41493
3173 41547 41548 41549 41549 4154: 4154: 4154: 4154; 4154;
3183 415:5 415:6 415:8 415:9 415:9 415:: 415:; 415:; 415:;
3193 41665 41667 41669 4166: 4166< 4166< 41673 41674 41674
31:3 416<6 416<: 416<< 41734 41736 41737 41739 4173: 4173:
31;3 4178: 41795 41798 4179; 417:3 417:5 417:6 417:8 417:9
31<3 41856 4185< 41866 4186: 41873 41875 41877 41879 4187:
4133 418<4 418<; 41937 4193; 41945 41948 4194; 41953 41955
4143 41994 419:3 419:: 419;5 419;: 419<4 419<7 419<: 419<<
4153 41:66 41:77 41:85 41:8< 41:98 41:9< 41::6 41::: 41:;3
4163 41;3: 41;53 41;64 41;6< 41;79 41;84 41;89 41;93 41;97
4173 41;;7 41<33 41<45 41<55 41<63 41<69 41<75 41<7: 41<84
4183 41<96 41<;4 41<<9 5133: 5134: 51358 51365 5136: 51375
4193 51377 51399 513;6 513<9 5143: 51449 51457 51464 5146:
41:3 5145; 51486 514:5 514;; 51534 51545 51554 5155< 51569
41;3 51547 51576 51598 515;6 515<; 51643 51654 51663 5166;
41<3 51636 51669 51694 516;5 516<< 51746 51758 51769 51778
5133 516<8 51764 51793 517;7 51836 5184< 51866 51878 51889
5153 518;9 51965 5199< 519<; 51:56 51:77 51:95 51::: 51:<4
5173 51:;; 51;79 51;<4 51<5; 51<8< 51<;9 6133; 6135; 61378
5193 61336 613:6 6145< 614:7 61546 61578 615:6 615<; 61653
51;3 6155< 61647 616;5 6176: 617;7 61857 6188< 618;< 61949
6133 6179< 618:3 61984 61:4; 61::8 61;57 61;99 61<35 61<68
Wdeoh : +frqwlqxhg,=
Vlfkho*v idfwru ? ET iru hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343 41343
3137 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353 41353
3139 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363 41363
313; 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374 41374
3143 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384 41384
3145 41395 41395 41395 41395 41395 41395 41395 41395
3147 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5 413:5
3149 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6 413;6
314; 413<6 413<7 413<7 413<7 413<7 413<7 413<7 413<7
3153 41437 41437 41437 41438 41438 41438 41438 41438
3163 41493 41493 41493 41494 41494 41494 41494 41494
3173 4154; 4154; 4154; 4154< 41553 41553 41553 41553
3183 415:; 415:< 415:< 415;3 415;4 415;4 415;5 415;5
3193 41674 41675 41675 41677 41678 41679 41679 4167:
31:3 4173: 4173; 4173; 41744 41745 41746 41747 41747
31;3 417:9 417:: 417:; 417;3 417;5 417;7 417;8 417;8
31<3 4187: 4187< 41883 41887 41888 4188: 4188; 4188<
4133 41955 41956 41958 41963 41967 41967 41969 4196:
4143 419<< 41:34 41:36 41:43 41:47 41:4: 41:49 41:4;
4153 41:;3 41:;5 41:;8 41:<6 41:<; 41;35 41;37 41;35
4163 41;97 41;9: 41;:3 41;;3 41;;9 41;<3 41;<7 41;<9
4173 41<84 41<88 41<8; 41<:3 41<:; 41<;6 41<;: 41<<3
4183 51375 5137: 51383 51398 513:7 513;3 513;8 513;;
4193 5146: 51475 5147: 51496 514:7 514;4 514;: 514<4
41:3 51569 51575 5157: 51599 515:; 515;: 515<6 515<;
41;3 5166; 51678 51685 516:8 516;: 516<: 51738 51744
41<3 51778 51786 51793 517;: 51834 51846 51854 5185;
5133 51889 51898 518:6 51937 51957 51966 51976 51984
5153 51:<4 51;36 51;46 51;86 51;:< 51;<: 51<36 51<45
5173 61378 61394 613:6 61457 6148: 614;3 614<: 614<;
5193 61653 6166< 61689 6174; 61793 617;< 61844 6185;
51;3 61949 6196< 61993 61:73 61:;< 61;59 61;86 61;:7
6133 61<68 61<97 61<<3 713;; 7147: 714<5 71559 71585
Wdeoh ;+d,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [f2DET ( ? iru orzhu <:18(
frqghqfh rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 31;:: 31;<5 31<36 31<43 31<49 31<54 31<58 31<5<
3137 31;64 31;84 31;98 31;:9 31;;7 31;<4 31;<9 31<34
3139 31:<: 31;54 31;6; 31;83 31;93 31;9; 31;:7 31;;3
313; 31::3 31:<: 31;48 31;5< 31;73 31;7< 31;89 31;95
3143 31:7: 31::9 31:<9 31;44 31;55 31;65 31;73 31;7:
3145 31:59 31:8: 31::; 31:<7 31;3: 31;4: 31;59 31;66
3147 31:3: 31:73 31:96 31:;3 31:<6 31;37 31;46 31;54
3149 319<4 31:58 31:7; 31:99 31:;3 31:<5 31;34 31;3<
314; 319:8 31:43 31:68 31:86 31:9; 31:;3 31:<3 31:<<
3153 31994 319<: 31:56 31:75 31:8: 31:9< 31:;3 31:;<
3163 31933 31974 3199< 319<4 31:3< 31:56 31:68 31:78
3173 31886 318<9 3195: 31983 3199< 319;8 319<; 31:3<
3183 31846 3188; 318<4 31948 31968 31985 31999 319:;
3193 317;3 31859 3188< 318;8 31939 31956 3196: 31983
31:3 31784 317<: 31864 3188; 318:< 318<: 31945 31958
31;3 31758 317:5 31839 31866 31888 318:6 318;< 31935
31<3 31735 3177< 317;7 31844 31866 31884 3189: 318;4
4133 316;4 3175; 31796 317<3 31845 31864 3187: 31894
4143 31696 3173< 31777 317:4 317<6 31845 3185< 31876
4153 31679 316<5 31759 31787 317:9 317<8 31844 31859
4163 31664 316:9 31743 3176: 31793 317:< 317<8 31843
4173 3164: 31695 316<8 31755 31777 31796 317;3 317<7
4183 31637 3167; 316;5 3173; 31763 3177< 31798 317;3
4193 315<5 31669 3169< 316<8 3174: 31768 31785 31799
41:3 315;5 31657 3168: 316;6 31737 31756 3176< 31786
41;3 315:5 31647 31678 316:4 316<5 31744 3175: 31774
41<3 31596 31637 31668 31693 316;4 316<< 31748 31763
5133 31587 315<8 31658 31683 316:4 316;< 31738 3174<
5153 31573 315:; 3163; 31664 31685 3169< 316;7 316<;
5173 3155: 31597 315<5 31648 31668 31684 31699 316;3
5193 31549 31585 315:< 31634 3164< 31669 31683 31696
51;3 3153: 31574 3159: 315;; 31639 31654 31668 3167;
6133 314<< 31565 31589 315:9 315<6 3163; 31655 31667
Wdeoh ;+d, frqwlqxhg= Vlfkho*v idfwru [f2D ET ( ? iru orzhu <:18(
frqghqfh rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 31<65 31<67 31<69 31<78 31<84 31<88 31<8; 31<94
3137 31<38 31<3; 31<44 31<56 31<64 31<69 31<74 31<78
3139 31;;7 31;;< 31;<5 31<39 31<49 31<56 31<5; 31<65
313; 31;9; 31;:5 31;:: 31;<5 31<36 31<44 31<4: 31<55
3143 31;86 31;8; 31;96 31;;3 31;<5 31<34 31<3: 31<46
3145 31;73 31;78 31;83 31;9< 31;;5 31;<4 31;<< 31<38
3147 31;5; 31;67 31;6< 31;8< 31;:6 31;;6 31;<4 31;<:
3149 31;4: 31;56 31;5< 31;83 31;97 31;:8 31;;6 31;<3
314; 31;39 31;46 31;4< 31;74 31;89 31;9; 31;:9 31;;6
3153 31:<: 31;36 31;3< 31;66 31;7< 31;93 31;:3 31;::
3163 31:87 31:95 31:9< 31:<: 31;48 31;5< 31;73 31;83
3173 31:4< 31:5; 31:69 31:99 31:;: 31;36 31;49 31;59
3183 319;< 319<; 31:3: 31:73 31:95 31:;3 31:<6 31;37
3193 31995 319:5 319;4 31:48 31:73 31:8; 31::6 31:;8
31:3 3196: 3197: 3198: 319<6 31:4< 31:6; 31:87 31:9:
31;3 31947 31958 31968 319:6 31:33 31:53 31:6: 31:83
31<3 318<6 31937 31947 31987 319;4 31:36 31:53 31:67
4133 318:7 318;8 318<8 31969 31997 319;9 31:37 31:4<
4143 31889 3189: 318:: 3194; 3197; 319:4 319;< 31:37
4153 3186< 31883 31894 31935 31965 31989 319:7 319<3
4163 31855 31867 31878 318;: 3194; 31974 31994 319::
4173 3183: 3184< 31863 318:5 31936 3195; 3197: 31997
4183 317<6 31838 31849 3188; 318<3 31947 31968 31984
4193 317:< 317<4 31835 31878 318:: 31935 31955 3196<
41:3 31799 317:; 317;< 31865 31897 318<3 31943 3195;
41;3 31787 31799 317:: 31853 31885 318:; 318<< 3194:
41<3 31775 31787 31798 3183; 31874 3189: 318;; 31939
5133 31764 31776 31787 317<: 31863 31888 318:: 318<8
5153 31744 31755 31766 317:9 3183; 31868 31889 318:8
5173 316<5 31736 31747 31789 317;< 31848 3186: 31889
5193 316:8 316;9 316<9 3176; 317:3 317<: 3184< 3186;
51;3 3168< 316:3 316;3 31754 31786 317:< 31834 31854
6133 31678 31689 31698 31739 3176: 31796 317;8 31837
Wdeoh ;+e,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [fDET ( ? iru orzhu <8(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 31;<; 31<43 31<4; 31<57 31<5< 31<66 31<69 31<6<
3137 31;8< 31;:8 31;;9 31;<8 31<34 31<3: 31<44 31<48
3139 31;64 31;7< 31;96 31;:6 31;;4 31;;: 31;<5 31;<:
313; 31;3: 31;5; 31;76 31;87 31;96 31;:4 31;:: 31;;5
3143 31:;; 31;43 31;59 31;6< 31;7; 31;8: 31;96 31;9<
3145 31::3 31:<7 31;45 31;58 31;68 31;77 31;84 31;8:
3147 31:87 31:;3 31:<; 31;45 31;56 31;65 31;73 31;79
3149 31:6< 31:99 31:;8 31;33 31;45 31;55 31;63 31;6:
314; 31:59 31:87 31::7 31:;< 31;34 31;45 31;53 31;5:
3153 31:47 31:75 31:96 31::< 31:<5 31;35 31;44 31;4<
3163 31994 319<6 31:4: 31:68 31:83 31:95 31::5 31:;4
3173 3194< 31987 319;3 319<< 31:48 31:5; 31:6< 31:7<
3183 318;8 31954 3197; 3199; 319;8 319<< 31:44 31:55
3193 31888 318<5 31953 31974 3198< 319:7 319;: 319<:
31:3 3185< 3189: 318<8 3194: 31968 31984 31997 319:8
31;3 31839 31877 318:6 318<8 31947 31963 31976 31988
31<3 317;8 31856 31885 318:8 318<7 31943 31957 31969
4133 31799 31838 31867 3188: 318:9 318<5 31939 3194<
4143 3177< 317;; 3184: 31873 3188< 318:8 318<3 31935
4153 31767 317:5 31834 31857 31876 31893 318:7 318;:
4163 31753 3178; 317;9 3183< 3185< 31878 3188< 318:5
4173 3173: 31777 317:6 317<9 31848 31864 31879 3188;
4183 316<9 31765 31793 317;6 31835 3184; 31866 31879
4193 316;8 31754 3177< 317:4 317<3 31839 31854 31866
41:3 316:9 31744 3176; 31793 317:< 317<8 3183< 31855
41;3 3169: 31734 3175; 31783 3179; 317;7 317<; 31844
41<3 3168< 316<6 3174< 31773 3178; 317:7 317;; 31833
5133 31685 316;7 31743 31764 3177< 31797 317:; 317<3
5153 3166< 316:3 316<7 31747 31764 31779 31793 317:5
5173 3165; 3168: 316;3 31733 31749 31764 31777 31788
5193 3164< 3167: 3169< 316;: 31736 31749 3175< 31773
51;3 31646 3166; 3168< 316:9 316<4 31737 31749 3175:
6133 3163: 31664 31683 31699 316;3 316<5 31737 31747
Wdeoh ;+e,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [fDET ( ? iru orzhu <8(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 31<75 31<77 31<79 31<86 31<8; 31<94 31<97 31<99
3137 31<4< 31<55 31<57 31<67 31<74 31<79 31<83 31<86
3139 31<34 31<38 31<3; 31<53 31<5; 31<67 31<6; 31<75
313; 31;;: 31;<4 31;<7 31<3; 31<4: 31<57 31<5< 31<66
3143 31;:7 31;:; 31;;5 31;<: 31<3; 31<48 31<54 31<59
3145 31;96 31;9; 31;:5 31;;; 31;<< 31<3: 31<47 31<4<
3147 31;85 31;8: 31;95 31;:< 31;<4 31<33 31<3: 31<45
3149 31;76 31;7; 31;86 31;:4 31;;7 31;<6 31<33 31<39
314; 31;67 31;6< 31;78 31;97 31;:: 31;;: 31;<7 31<33
3153 31;58 31;64 31;69 31;8: 31;:3 31;;4 31;;; 31;<8
3163 31:;< 31:<8 31;35 31;58 31;74 31;87 31;96 31;:4
3173 31:8; 31:99 31::5 31:<< 31;4: 31;64 31;75 31;84
3183 31:64 31:6< 31:7: 31::8 31:<8 31;44 31;55 31;65
3193 31:3: 31:49 31:57 31:87 31::9 31:<5 31;38 31;48
31:3 319;9 319<8 31:36 31:68 31:8: 31::8 31:;; 31;33
31;3 31998 319:8 319;6 31:4: 31:73 31:8; 31::6 31:;8
31<3 3197: 3198: 31998 31:33 31:57 31:76 31:8; 31::4
4133 31963 31973 3197< 319;7 31:3< 31:5< 31:77 31:8:
4143 31946 31956 31966 3199< 319<8 31:48 31:64 31:78
4153 318<; 3193; 3194; 31988 319;4 31:35 31:4< 31:66
4163 318;7 318<7 31936 31974 3199; 319;< 31:39 31:54
4173 318:3 318;3 318<3 3195; 31988 319:: 319<8 31:3<
4183 3188: 3189: 318:: 31948 31976 31998 319;6 319<;
4193 31878 31888 31898 31936 31965 31987 319:5 319;;
41:3 31866 31877 31886 318<5 31954 31976 31995 319::
41;3 31855 31866 31875 318;4 31943 31966 31984 3199:
41<3 31845 31855 31865 318:4 31933 31956 31975 3198;
5133 31835 31845 31854 31893 318<3 31946 31965 3197;
5153 317;6 317<6 31836 31874 318:4 318<7 31947 31963
5173 31799 317:9 317;8 31857 31886 318:: 318<9 31946
5193 31784 31793 317:3 3183: 31869 31893 318;3 318<:
51;3 3176: 31779 31788 317<5 31854 31877 31897 318;5
6133 31757 31766 31775 317:; 31839 31863 31883 3189:
Wdeoh ;+f,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [f ET ( ? iru orzhu <3(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 31<4< 31<5; 31<68 31<6< 31<76 31<7: 31<7< 31<84
3137 31;;; 31<33 31<3< 31<49 31<54 31<58 31<5< 31<65
3139 31;98 31;;3 31;<3 31;<; 31<38 31<43 31<47 31<4;
313; 31;7: 31;96 31;:8 31;;7 31;<4 31;<: 31<34 31<39
3143 31;64 31;7< 31;94 31;:4 31;:< 31;;8 31;<4 31;<8
3145 31;4: 31;69 31;7< 31;93 31;9; 31;:8 31;;4 31;;9
3147 31;37 31;57 31;6; 31;7< 31;8; 31;99 31;:5 31;::
3149 31:<5 31;46 31;5; 31;73 31;7< 31;8: 31;96 31;9<
314; 31:;4 31;36 31;4< 31;64 31;74 31;7< 31;89 31;95
3153 31::4 31:<7 31;43 31;56 31;66 31;74 31;7; 31;88
3163 31:5< 31:87 31::6 31:;: 31:<< 31;3; 31;4: 31;57
3173 319<8 31:55 31:75 31:8; 31::4 31:;4 31:<4 31:<<
3183 31999 319<8 31:49 31:66 31:7: 31:8; 31:9; 31::9
3193 31975 319:5 319<6 31:44 31:58 31:6: 31:7: 31:89
31:3 31954 31984 319:6 319<4 31:39 31:4; 31:5< 31:6;
31;3 31935 31965 31988 319:6 319;; 31:34 31:45 31:55
31<3 318;8 31949 3196< 3198: 319:5 319;8 319<: 31:39
4133 318:4 31934 31957 31975 3198; 319:4 319;5 319<5
4143 3188: 318;: 31943 3195; 31977 3198: 3199< 319:<
4153 31878 318:8 318<: 31949 31964 31977 31989 31999
4163 31868 31896 318;9 31937 3194< 31965 31977 31988
4173 31858 31886 318:8 318<6 3193; 31955 31966 31976
4183 31849 31877 31898 318;6 318<; 31944 31956 31966
4193 3183< 31868 31889 318:7 318;< 31934 31946 31956
41:3 31835 3185; 3187; 31898 318;3 318<5 31937 31947
41;3 317<9 31854 31874 3188: 318:4 318;7 318<8 31938
41<3 317<4 31848 31867 31883 31897 318:9 318;: 318<:
5133 317;9 3183< 3185: 31876 31889 3189; 318:< 318;<
5153 317:< 31833 31849 31864 31877 31888 31898 318:7
5173 317:8 317<6 3183; 31854 31865 31876 31886 31895
5193 317:6 317;; 31834 31845 31856 31866 31875 31883
51;3 317:5 317;8 317<9 31839 31848 31857 31865 31873
6133 317:7 317;6 317<5 31834 3183< 3184: 31857 31864
Wdeoh ;+f, frqwlqxhg= Vlfkho*v idfwru [f ET ( ? iru orzhu <3(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 31<86 31<88 31<8: 31<96 31<99 31<9< 31<:5 31<:6
3137 31<68 31<6: 31<6< 31<7; 31<86 31<8: 31<93 31<95
3139 31<54 31<57 31<5: 31<69 31<76 31<7: 31<84 31<87
313; 31<3< 31<46 31<49 31<5: 31<67 31<6< 31<77 31<7:
3143 31;<< 31<36 31<39 31<4; 31<59 31<65 31<6: 31<74
3145 31;<3 31;<7 31;<: 31<44 31<4< 31<59 31<64 31<68
3147 31;;5 31;;9 31;<3 31<37 31<46 31<53 31<59 31<63
3149 31;:7 31;:; 31;;5 31;<: 31<3: 31<48 31<54 31<58
314; 31;9: 31;:4 31;:9 31;<4 31<35 31<43 31<49 31<54
3153 31;93 31;98 31;9< 31;;8 31;<9 31<38 31<44 31<49
3163 31;63 31;69 31;74 31;93 31;:6 31;;6 31;<4 31;<:
3173 31;38 31;45 31;4: 31;6< 31;87 31;98 31;:7 31;;4
3183 31:;7 31:<3 31:<: 31;53 31;69 31;7< 31;8; 31;99
3193 31:97 31::4 31::; 31;36 31;53 31;67 31;77 31;86
31:3 31:7: 31:87 31:94 31:;: 31;38 31;53 31;64 31;73
31;3 31:63 31:6; 31:78 31::5 31:<5 31;3: 31;4; 31;5;
31<3 31:48 31:56 31:63 31:8< 31::< 31:<7 31;3: 31;4:
4133 31:34 31:3< 31:4: 31:79 31:99 31:;5 31:<8 31;39
4143 319;; 319<9 31:37 31:66 31:88 31::4 31:;8 31:<9
4153 319:8 319;7 319<4 31:55 31:77 31:94 31::7 31:;9
4163 31997 319:5 319;3 31:44 31:66 31:83 31:97 31::9
4173 31986 31994 3199< 31:33 31:56 31:73 31:88 31:9:
4183 31975 31984 3198< 319<3 31:46 31:64 31:79 31:8;
4193 31965 31974 3197< 319;3 31:36 31:55 31:6: 31:7<
41:3 31956 31964 3196< 319:4 319<7 31:46 31:5; 31:74
41;3 31947 31956 31963 31995 319;9 31:37 31:53 31:66
41<3 31939 31947 31955 31986 319:: 319<9 31:45 31:58
5133 318<; 31939 31947 31978 3199< 319;; 31:37 31:4:
5153 318;6 318<4 318<< 31963 31987 319:6 319;< 31:36
5173 318:3 318:; 318;8 31948 3196< 3198< 319:8 319;<
5193 3188; 31899 318:6 31935 31959 31978 31994 319:9
51;3 3187; 31888 31894 318<3 31946 31966 3197< 31996
6133 3186; 31878 31884 318:< 31935 31954 3196: 31984
Wdeoh ;+g,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [bfET ( ? iru xsshu <3(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 41496 41467 41448 41435 413<5 413;8 413:< 413:7
3137 41575 414<: 4149< 4147< 41468 41456 41447 4143:
3139 4163: 4157< 41546 414;; 4149< 41488 41476 41466
313; 4169: 415<9 41585 41555 414<< 414;5 4149; 4148:
3143 41756 41673 415;; 41586 4155: 4153: 414<5 414:<
3145 417:9 416;5 41656 415;6 41587 41565 41547 414<<
3147 4185; 41755 41689 41645 415:< 41587 41568 4154;
3149 418:< 41794 416;< 41673 41637 415:9 41588 4156:
314; 41963 41833 41753 4169: 4165; 415<; 415:7 41588
3153 419;3 4186; 41785 416<6 41684 4164< 415<6 415:6
3163 41<64 41:59 41937 41855 41797 41753 416;8 4168:
3173 514<6 41<4: 41:89 41983 418:8 4184; 417:7 4176;
3183 517:6 5144; 41<47 41:;4 419;: 4194: 41896 4184<
3193 51::: 51664 513:< 41<49 41;36 41:4; 41986 41934
31:3 6143< 5188< 51586 5138; 41<56 41;56 41:79 419;8
31;3 617:8 51;39 5176< 5153; 5137< 41<65 41;76 41::5
31<3 61;:; 613:6 5196; 5169: 514;5 5137: 41<77 41;95
4133 71658 61696 51;85 51869 51655 5149: 5137< 41<8:
4143 71;4< 619:< 613;5 51:4: 517:4 515<7 51493 51388
4153 8169< 71357 61663 51<43 5195; 5175: 515:9 5148;
4163 81<:; 71733 618<: 61449 51:<9 5189< 516<; 51599
4173 91989 71;44 61;;8 61669 51<:7 51:4; 5185: 516;3
4183 :1743 81593 714<; 618:6 61498 51;:: 51997 517<<
4193 ;157; 81:85 71868 61;5: 6169: 61378 51;3: 51958
41:3 <14;4 915<4 71<34 71433 618;6 61557 51<8< 51:8:
41;3 43154< 91;;3 815<: 716<6 61;47 61746 61453 51;<9
41<3 4416:6 :1859 81:59 71:3; 71393 61948 615<3 61376
5133 45198; ;1566 914<3 81379 71657 61;5< 617:3 614<;
5153 4819:: <1;8: :1574 81;35 71<39 715<< 61;96 61868
5173 4<1746 441;3; ;17:: 919:: 818:5 71;65 71637 61<44
5193 571366 471485 <1<64 :19<5 91668 81769 71;34 71663
51;3 5<1:75 491<9; 441977 ;1;9< :1543 91455 81693 71:<<
6133 691:<3 531683 461995 431569 ;1546 91<34 81<<3 81657
Wdeoh ;+g, frqwlqxhg= Vlfkho*v idfwru [bfET ( ? iru xsshu <3(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 4139< 41399 41396 41384 41377 41373 41369 41366
3137 41433 413<8 413<3 413:7 41397 4138: 41385 4137;
3139 41459 4144< 41446 413<5 413;3 413:4 41397 4138<
313; 4147; 41473 41466 4143; 413<6 413;6 413:8 4139<
3143 4149; 4148< 41484 41456 41439 413<7 413;8 413:<
3145 414;: 414:9 4149; 41469 4144: 41437 413<7 413;:
3147 41538 414<6 414;7 4147< 4145; 41447 41436 413<8
3149 41555 41543 414<< 41494 4146; 41456 41444 41435
314; 4156< 41558 41547 414:6 4147; 41465 4144< 41443
3153 41588 41574 4155; 414;8 4148; 41473 4145: 4144:
3163 41666 41647 415<: 4156< 41537 414;3 41496 4147<
3173 4173; 416;7 41695 415<3 41579 4154: 414<9 414:<
3183 417;6 41786 4175: 4166< 415;; 41586 4155; 4153;
3193 4188; 41855 417<5 416;< 4165< 415;; 4158< 4156:
31:3 41968 418<7 4188; 4176< 416:3 41657 415<3 41598
31;3 41:47 41999 41959 417<3 41744 4168< 41655 415<6
31<3 41:<9 41:75 419<9 41875 41786 416<8 41686 41654
4133 41;;5 41;53 41:9; 418<8 417<9 41764 416;8 41683
4143 41<:3 41<34 41;75 4197< 41873 4179; 4174: 416:<
4153 51396 41<;8 41<53 41:38 418;8 41839 41783 4173;
4163 51493 513:6 51334 41:96 41963 41878 417;7 4176;
4173 51595 51498 513;8 41;56 419:; 418;7 4184; 4179<
4183 5169; 51594 514:5 41;;8 41:59 41958 41886 41833
4193 517;3 51695 51597 41<7< 41::9 41999 418;< 41864
41:3 518<: 5179: 51693 51349 41;5; 41:3< 41958 41897
41;3 51:53 518:; 51793 513;7 41;;4 41:86 41996 418<:
41<3 51;7< 519<6 51898 51489 41<69 41:<; 41:34 41963
5133 51<;9 51;48 519:7 51563 41<<6 41;77 41:74 41998
5153 615;3 613:9 51<3< 516;: 51445 41<74 41;56 41:6:
5173 61939 61697 6149: 51889 5156< 51376 41<43 41;45
5193 61<9; 619;5 61784 51:73 516:8 51485 51334 41;<4
51;3 716:4 71368 61:96 51<6; 51854 5159; 513<: 41<:7
6133 71;4< 71757 7143: 61486 519:: 516<4 51533 51395
Wdeoh ;+h,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [bD ET ( ? iru xsshu <8(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 41576 414<7 41497 41477 4145< 4144: 4143; 41434
3137 41697 415;; 41575 41544 414;< 414:5 4148; 4147:
3139 4179: 4169: 4163: 4159: 4156; 41549 414<< 414;7
313; 41896 4176< 41699 4164: 415;5 41588 41568 4154;
3143 41986 4183: 41754 41697 41656 415<5 4159; 4157;
3145 41:75 418:5 417:7 4173; 41695 4165: 415<< 415::
3147 41;5< 41969 41858 41784 416<< 41693 4165< 41638
3149 41<48 419<< 418:7 417<6 41768 416<5 4168< 41664
314; 51334 41:94 41957 41867 417:4 41757 416;: 4168:
3153 513;; 41;56 419:5 418:8 41839 41788 41748 416;6
3163 51869 51469 41<48 41::8 419:: 41938 4187< 41838
3173 61357 51799 51498 41<:: 41;7< 41:87 419;5 41958
3183 6189< 51;55 51763 514;< 51359 41<3: 41;4: 41:7:
3193 714;5 61545 51:47 51746 51544 51399 41<8: 41;:5
31:3 71;:< 61975 61355 51985 5173; 51567 51436 51334
31;3 819:7 7144< 6168: 51<43 5194: 51743 51589 5146:
31<3 918;5 71983 61:57 614;< 51;75 518<; 5174; 515;3
4133 :1954 81575 7145: 617<3 613;5 51:<; 518<3 51763
4143 ;1;46 81<36 7189; 61;4; 61674 61345 51::5 518;<
4153 4314:< 91976 81388 714:7 61953 61574 51<99 51:8:
4163 441:7: :17:4 818<3 71895 61<54 617;9 614:6 51<69
4173 461879 ;16<< 914;4 71<;7 7157: 61:83 616<6 61458
4183 481944 <176< 91;65 81778 718<< 71366 6195< 6165:
4193 4:1<;3 431938 :1884 81<7< 71<;3 7166: 61;;4 61875
41:3 5319<< 441<44 ;1678 917<; 816<5 71997 71484 61::4
41;3 561;4; 4616:: <1555 :13<; 81;6< 81349 7176< 71347
41<3 5:16<8 481354 4314<4 :1:87 91657 816<8 71:7; 715:7
5133 6417<9 491;98 441595 ;17:5 91;7< 81;36 813:< 71884
5153 7418;4 541584 461:86 431448 ;136: 91:4; 81;48 81496
5173 871;3: 591:9: 491:<< 4513;4 <1769 :1:;4 91995 81;93
5193 :51455 661:34 531855 471769 4413;9 <134< :196: 91989
51;3 <71:85 751743 5813:6 4:158: 461365 431793 ;1:94 :189:
6133 45715:4 861674 631969 53196< 48165< 451474 43138; ;193;
Wdeoh ;+h, frqwlqxhg= Vlfkho*v idfwru [bDET ( ? iru xsshu <8(
frqghqfh ohyho rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 413<8 413;< 413;8 4139< 4138< 41386 4137; 41377
3137 4146; 41463 41456 41433 413;9 413:9 4139< 41397
3139 414:6 41496 41487 41458 4143: 413<8 413;9 413:<
313; 41537 414<5 414;5 41479 41458 41444 41433 413<5
3143 41565 4154; 4153: 41499 41475 41459 41447 41437
3145 4158< 41576 41563 414;8 4148; 4146< 41459 41448
3147 415;7 4159: 41586 41535 414:6 41485 4146; 41459
3149 4163< 415<3 415:7 4154< 414;: 41498 4147< 41469
314; 41666 41646 415<8 41569 41533 414:: 4148< 41479
3153 4168: 41667 41649 41585 41547 414;; 414:3 41488
3163 4179< 4176< 41746 4165: 415:9 41575 4154; 414<<
3173 418:< 41874 4183; 416<< 41669 415<6 41596 41573
3183 419<3 41975 41935 417:3 416<6 41676 4163: 415;3
3193 41;36 41:79 419<; 41874 41784 416<5 41683 4164<
31:3 41<53 41;86 41:<: 41946 4183< 41775 416<7 4168;
31;3 51375 41<97 41;<< 419;: 4189; 417<5 4176: 416<9
31<3 5149< 513:< 51338 41:96 4195< 41875 417;4 41769
4133 51636 51534 51448 41;74 419<3 418<7 41859 417:9
4143 51777 5165; 51564 41<55 41:87 4197: 418:5 41849
4153 518<6 51794 51685 51339 41;4< 41:34 4194< 4188:
4163 51:84 51935 517;3 513<7 41;;: 41:8: 41999 41933
4173 51<4: 51:83 51947 514;8 41<8: 41;47 41:48 41976
4183 613<6 51<3: 51:87 515:< 5135< 41;:6 41:99 419;:
4193 615;3 613:5 51<36 516:; 51437 41<67 41;4: 41:65
41:3 617:< 6157: 6138< 517;4 514;5 41<<: 41;:4 41::;
41;3 619;< 61765 61558 518;< 51595 51395 41<58 41;59
41<3 61<46 6195; 616<< 51:34 51679 5145< 41<;5 41;:8
5133 71483 61;69 618;6 51;4< 51765 514<; 51373 41<58
5153 719:5 715;< 61<;6 613:3 51949 51677 51494 51363
5173 81595 71:<< 71764 61678 51;48 51833 515<4 51474
5193 81<63 816:5 71<64 6197: 61363 5199; 5175; 5158;
51;3 919;< 9134< 817<6 61<:< 61596 51;7; 518:8 516;6
6133 :1883 91:7; 91455 71676 61849 61374 51:65 51848
Wdeoh ;+i ,= Vlfkho*v idfwru [b.DET ( ? iru xsshu <:18(
frqghqfh rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 8 9 : ; < 43 44 45
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 41669 41594 4154: 414;; 41499 41484 4146; 4145;
3137 41845 416<5 41656 415:; 41579 41555 41536 414;;
3139 41998 41837 41746 41686 41644 415;3 41589 41569
313; 41;43 4193; 417<8 41755 416:4 41666 41636 415;3
3143 41<83 41:3: 418:5 417;9 41759 416;5 4167: 41653
3145 513;< 41;37 4197: 4187; 417:< 4175; 416;< 4168;
3147 5155: 41;<< 41:53 4193; 41863 417:6 4175< 416<8
3149 5169: 41<<6 41:<5 4199: 418;3 4184: 4179< 41763
314; 5183; 513;; 41;97 41:58 41963 41893 4183: 41798
3153 51984 514;6 41<69 41:;6 419:< 41936 41878 417<<
3163 61753 519:: 51633 513:6 41<54 41;45 41:63 41999
3173 71636 6154; 519;: 516:8 514:3 51357 41<49 41;65
3183 81669 61;56 6143< 519<; 51765 51579 5143; 51335
3193 91888 7183; 618:7 6137; 51:46 517;3 51643 514:<
31:3 :1<<< 815;< 713<4 61763 61348 51:63 51857 51699
31;3 <1:49 914;5 7199< 61;83 61676 61333 51:85 51897
31<3 441:8; :153: 81648 71646 61:34 615<3 51<<9 51::8
4133 4714<3 ;16;6 91375 71;58 713<4 61937 6158; 61333
4143 4:13;9 <1:69 91;8; 816<4 7184; 61<78 61874 61575
4153 531869 4415<5 :1::: 9134< 71<;9 71648 61;78 61833
4163 571977 4613;6 ;1;46 91:48 81833 71:4: 714:7 61::;
4173 5<1867 481479 <1<;3 :17;; 91397 81488 71863 713:9
4183 681685 4:1854 4415<9 ;167; 919;7 81966 71<48 716<:
4193 7515:5 531589 451:;3 <1636 :1698 91486 81665 71:76
41:3 8317<9 561739 471788 431699 ;1448 91:54 81:;7 81448
41;3 931598 5:1365 491678 44187; ;1<74 :1674 915:7 8184:
41<3 :41;93 64153: 4;17:; 451;96 <1;83 ;134; 91;38 81<83
5133 ;81948 691344 531;;8 47165: 431;84 ;1:8: :16;4 9174:
5153 4541563 7:1<33 59199; 4:1::4 46149; 43177; ;19;9 :1799
5173 4:4144; 961956 671366 55136< 481<;6 45179< 431558 ;19<3
5193 5731:;: ;716<3 76173< 5:1665 4<1736 471;;8 451374 43144<
51;3 66:1::9 4441::; 88166< 661;<7 561894 4:1::9 4714;: 441:;<
6133 7:516;3 47:1;7: :31844 75135< 5;1949 54156: 491:57 461:76
Wdeoh ;+i, frqwlqxhg= Vlfkho*v idfwru [b.DET ( ? iru xsshu <:18(
frqghqfh rq wkh phdq ri d orjqrupdo srsxodwlrq
?' 46 47 48 53 58 63 68 73
T ' 3133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
3135 41453 41446 4143: 413;9 413:7 41398 4138< 41387
3137 414:8 41498 41489 41458 41439 413<7 413;8 413:;
3139 41553 4153: 414<8 41489 41466 4144: 41439 413<:
313; 41593 41577 41563 414;7 41489 4146: 41457 41446
3143 415<; 415:< 41596 4153< 414:: 41489 41473 4145;
3145 41666 41644 415<6 41565 414<: 414:6 41489 41475
3147 41699 41676 41656 41588 41548 414;< 414:3 41489
3149 416<< 416:6 41684 415:: 41567 41538 414;7 4149;
314; 41764 41735 416:; 415<; 41584 41553 414<: 414;3
3153 41795 41764 41738 4164; 4159; 41567 41543 414<5
3163 41947 418:4 41868 41749 4167; 41636 415:4 4157:
3173 41:97 41:3< 41995 41843 41757 4169; 4165< 415<<
3183 41<4: 41;7; 41:<4 41937 41833 41765 416;8 4167<
3193 513:9 41<<5 41<56 419<< 418:8 417<9 41773 416<;
31:3 51575 51475 51393 41:<9 41985 41893 417<9 4177;
31;3 5174; 51633 51536 41;<9 41:63 41958 41886 417<;
31<3 51937 51799 51687 51333 41;44 419<5 41943 4187<
4133 51;34 51975 51845 5143; 41;<7 41:94 4199< 41934
4143 61344 51;5< 519;3 51553 41<;3 41;64 41:5< 41987
4153 61569 6135: 51;8: 5166; 5139< 41<37 41:<4 41:3;
4163 617:8 6156: 61379 51794 51495 41<:< 41;87 41:96
4173 61:65 61795 61578 518<3 5158; 51389 41<4< 41;53
4183 71339 61:35 6178; 51:59 5168< 5146: 41<;: 41;:<
4193 71633 61<8: 619;6 51;9; 51796 51553 5138: 41<6<
41:3 71949 71563 61<57 6134: 518:5 51639 5145< 51334
41;3 71<87 71855 714:< 614:8 519;9 516<9 51536 51398
41<3 8164; 71;67 71785 61673 51;38 517;< 515;3 51464
5133 81:3; 8149; 71:75 61847 51<5< 518;9 51693 514<<
5153 918:; 81<3: 816;6 61;<4 614<7 51:<4 5185; 51675
5173 :18;7 91:87 91445 71643 617;7 61346 51:3; 517<7
5193 ;1:7: :1:5: 91<76 71::8 61;35 61587 51<35 5198:
51;3 4313<8 ;1;79 :1;<5 815<6 71483 61848 61444 51;64
6133 44198: 431465 ;1<:8 81;:4 71865 61:<; 61668 6134:
Table 9 Binomial probabilities
p
n g .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
1 0 0.9500 0.9000 0.8500 0.8000 0.7500 0.7000 0.6500 0.6000 0.5500 0.5000
1 0.0500 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 0.2500 0.3000 0.3500 0.4000 0.4500 0.5000
2 0 0.9025 0.8100 0.7225 0.6400 0.5625 0.4900 0.4225 0.3600 0.3025 0.2500
1 0.0950 0.1800 0.2550 0.3200 0.3750 0.4200 0.4550 0.4800 0.4950 0.5000
2 0.0025 0.0100 0.0225 0.0400 0.0625 0.0900 0.1225 0.1600 0.2025 0.2500
3 0 0.8574 0.7290 0.6141 0.5120 0.4219 0.3430 0.2746 0.2160 0.1664 0.1250
1 0.1354 0.2430 0.3251 0.3840 0.4219 0.4410 0.4436 0.4320 0.4084 0.3750
2 0.0071 0.0270 0.0574 0.0960 0.1406 0.1890 0.2389 0.2880 0.3341 0.3750
3 0.0001 0.0010 0.0034 0.0080 0.0156 0.0270 0.0429 0.0640 0.0911 0.1250
4 0 0.8145 0.6561 0.5220 0.4096 0.3164 0.2401 0.1785 0.1296 0.0915 0.0625
1 0.1715 0.2916 0.3685 0.4096 0.4219 0.4116 0.3845 0.3456 0.2995 0.2500
2 0.0135 0.0486 0.0975 0.1536 0.2109 0.2646 0.3105 0.3456 0.3675 0.3750
3 0.0005 0.0036 0.0115 0.0256 0.0469 0.0756 0.1115 0.1536 0.2005 0.2500
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0039 0.0081 0.0150 0.0256 0.0410 0.0625
5 0 0.7738 0.5905 0.4437 0.3277 0.2373 0.1681 0.1160 0.0778 0.0503 0.0313
1 0.2036 0.3281 0.3915 0.4096 0.3955 0.3602 0.3124 0.2592 0.2059 0.1563
2 0.0214 0.0729 0.1382 0.2048 0.2637 0.3087 0.3364 0.3456 0.3369 0.3125
3 0.0011 0.0081 0.0244 0.0512 0.0879 0.1323 0.1811 0.2304 0.2757 0.3125
4 0.0000 0.0005 0.0022 0.0064 0.0146 0.0284 0.0488 0.0768 0.1128 0.1563
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010 0.0024 0.0053 0.0102 0.0185 0.0313
6 0 0.7351 0.5314 0.3771 0.2621 0.1780 0.1176 0.0754 0.0467 0.0277 0.0156
1 0.2321 0.3543 0.3993 0.3932 0.3560 0.3025 0.2437 0.1866 0.1359 0.0938
2 0.0305 0.0984 0.1762 0.2458 0.2966 0.3241 0.3280 0.3110 0.2780 0.2344
3 0.0021 0.0146 0.0415 0.0819 0.1318 0.1852 0.2355 0.2765 0.3032 0.3125
4 0.0001 0.0012 0.0055 0.0154 0.0330 0.0595 0.0951 0.1382 0.1861 0.2344
5 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0015 0.0044 0.0102 0.0205 0.0369 0.0609 0.0938
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0007 0.0018 0.0041 0.0083 0.0156
7 0 0.6983 0.4783 0.3206 0.2097 0.1335 0.0824 0.0490 0.0280 0.0152 0.0078
1 0.2573 0.3720 0.3960 0.3670 0.3115 0.2471 0.1848 0.1306 0.0872 0.0547
2 0.0406 0.1240 0.2097 0.2753 0.3115 0.3177 0.2985 0.2613 0.2140 0.1641
3 0.0036 0.0230 0.0617 0.1147 0.1730 0.2269 0.2679 0.2903 0.2918 0.2734
4 0.0002 0.0026 0.0109 0.0287 0.0577 0.0972 0.1442 0.1935 0.2388 0.2734
5 0.0000 0.0002 0.0012 0.0043 0.0115 0.0250 0.0466 0.0774 0.1172 0.1641
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0013 0.0036 0.0084 0.0172 0.0320 0.0547
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0006 0.0016 0.0037 0.0078
8 0 0.6634 0.4305 0.2725 0.1678 0.1001 0.0576 0.0319 0.0168 0.0084 0.0039
1 0.2793 0.3826 0.3847 0.3355 0.2670 0.1977 0.1373 0.0896 0.0548 0.0313
2 0.0515 0.1488 0.2376 0.2936 0.3115 0.2965 0.2587 0.2090 0.1569 0.1094
3 0.0054 0.0331 0.0839 0.1468 0.2076 0.2541 0.2786 0.2787 0.2568 0.2188
4 0.0004 0.0046 0.0185 0.0459 0.0865 0.1361 0.1875 0.2322 0.2627 0.2734
5 0.0000 0.0004 0.0026 0.0092 0.0231 0.0467 0.0808 0.1239 0.1719 0.2188
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0011 0.0038 0.0100 0.0217 0.0413 0.0703 0.1094
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0012 0.0033 0.0079 0.0164 0.0313
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0007 0.0017 0.0039
Table 9 Binomial probabilities
p
n g .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
9 0 0.6302 0.3874 0.2316 0.1342 0.0751 0.0404 0.0207 0.0101 0.0046 0.0020
1 0.2985 0.3874 0.3679 0.3020 0.2253 0.1556 0.1004 0.0605 0.0339 0.0176
2 0.0629 0.1722 0.2597 0.3020 0.3003 0.2668 0.2162 0.1612 0.1110 0.0703
3 0.0077 0.0446 0.1069 0.1762 0.2336 0.2668 0.2716 0.2508 0.2119 0.1641
4 0.0006 0.0074 0.0283 0.0661 0.1168 0.1715 0.2194 0.2508 0.2600 0.2461
5 0.0000 0.0008 0.0050 0.0165 0.0389 0.0735 0.1181 0.1672 0.2128 0.2461
6 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0028 0.0087 0.0210 0.0424 0.0743 0.1160 0.1641
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0012 0.0039 0.0098 0.0212 0.0407 0.0703
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0013 0.0035 0.0083 0.0176
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0008 0.0020
10 0 0.5987 0.3487 0.1969 0.1074 0.0563 0.0282 0.0135 0.0060 0.0025 0.0010
1 0.3151 0.3874 0.3474 0.2684 0.1877 0.1211 0.0725 0.0403 0.0207 0.0098
2 0.0746 0.1937 0.2759 0.3020 0.2816 0.2335 0.1757 0.1209 0.0763 0.0439
3 0.0105 0.0574 0.1298 0.2013 0.2503 0.2668 0.2522 0.2150 0.1665 0.1172
4 0.0010 0.0112 0.0401 0.0881 0.1460 0.2001 0.2377 0.2508 0.2384 0.2051
5 0.0001 0.0015 0.0085 0.0264 0.0584 0.1029 0.1536 0.2007 0.2340 0.2461
6 0.0000 0.0001 0.0012 0.0055 0.0162 0.0368 0.0689 0.1115 0.1596 0.2051
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0008 0.0031 0.0090 0.0212 0.0425 0.0746 0.1172
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0014 0.0043 0.0106 0.0229 0.0439
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0042 0.0098
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010
11 0 0.5688 0.3138 0.1673 0.0859 0.0422 0.0198 0.0088 0.0036 0.0014 0.0005
1 0.3293 0.3835 0.3248 0.2362 0.1549 0.0932 0.0518 0.0266 0.0125 0.0054
2 0.0867 0.2131 0.2866 0.2953 0.2581 0.1998 0.1395 0.0887 0.0513 0.0269
3 0.0137 0.0710 0.1517 0.2215 0.2581 0.2568 0.2254 0.1774 0.1259 0.0806
4 0.0014 0.0158 0.0536 0.1107 0.1721 0.2201 0.2428 0.2365 0.2060 0.1611
5 0.0001 0.0025 0.0132 0.0388 0.0803 0.1321 0.1830 0.2207 0.2360 0.2256
6 0.0000 0.0003 0.0023 0.0097 0.0268 0.0566 0.0985 0.1471 0.1931 0.2256
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0017 0.0064 0.0173 0.0379 0.0701 0.1128 0.1611
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0011 0.0037 0.0102 0.0234 0.0462 0.0806
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0018 0.0052 0.0126 0.0269
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0007 0.0021 0.0054
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0005
12 0 0.5404 0.2824 0.1422 0.0687 0.0317 0.0138 0.0057 0.0022 0.0008 0.0002
1 0.3413 0.3766 0.3012 0.2062 0.1267 0.0712 0.0368 0.0174 0.0075 0.0029
2 0.0988 0.2301 0.2924 0.2835 0.2323 0.1678 0.1088 0.0639 0.0339 0.0161
3 0.0173 0.0852 0.1720 0.2362 0.2581 0.2397 0.1954 0.1419 0.0923 0.0537
4 0.0021 0.0213 0.0683 0.1329 0.1936 0.2311 0.2367 0.2128 0.1700 0.1208
5 0.0002 0.0038 0.0193 0.0532 0.1032 0.1585 0.2039 0.2270 0.2225 0.1934
6 0.0000 0.0005 0.0040 0.0155 0.0401 0.0792 0.1281 0.1766 0.2124 0.2256
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0033 0.0115 0.0291 0.0591 0.1009 0.1489 0.1934
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0024 0.0078 0.0199 0.0420 0.0762 0.1208
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0015 0.0048 0.0125 0.0277 0.0537
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0008 0.0025 0.0068 0.0161
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010 0.0029
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002
Table 9 Binomial probabilities
p
n g .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
13 0 0.5133 0.2542 0.1209 0.0550 0.0238 0.0097 0.0037 0.0013 0.0004 0.0001
1 0.3512 0.3672 0.2774 0.1787 0.1029 0.0540 0.0259 0.0113 0.0045 0.0016
2 0.1109 0.2448 0.2937 0.2680 0.2059 0.1388 0.0836 0.0453 0.0220 0.0095
3 0.0214 0.0997 0.1900 0.2457 0.2517 0.2181 0.1651 0.1107 0.0660 0.0349
4 0.0028 0.0277 0.0838 0.1535 0.2097 0.2337 0.2222 0.1845 0.1350 0.0873
5 0.0003 0.0055 0.0266 0.0691 0.1258 0.1803 0.2154 0.2214 0.1989 0.1571
6 0.0000 0.0008 0.0063 0.0230 0.0559 0.1030 0.1546 0.1968 0.2169 0.2095
7 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0058 0.0186 0.0442 0.0833 0.1312 0.1775 0.2095
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0047 0.0142 0.0336 0.0656 0.1089 0.1571
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0009 0.0034 0.0101 0.0243 0.0495 0.0873
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0022 0.0065 0.0162 0.0349
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0012 0.0036 0.0095
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016
13 0 0.5133 0.2542 0.1209 0.0550 0.0238 0.0097 0.0037 0.0013 0.0004 0.0001
1 0.3512 0.3672 0.2774 0.1787 0.1029 0.0540 0.0259 0.0113 0.0045 0.0016
2 0.1109 0.2448 0.2937 0.2680 0.2059 0.1388 0.0836 0.0453 0.0220 0.0095
3 0.0214 0.0997 0.1900 0.2457 0.2517 0.2181 0.1651 0.1107 0.0660 0.0349
4 0.0028 0.0277 0.0838 0.1535 0.2097 0.2337 0.2222 0.1845 0.1350 0.0873
5 0.0003 0.0055 0.0266 0.0691 0.1258 0.1803 0.2154 0.2214 0.1989 0.1571
6 0.0000 0.0008 0.0063 0.0230 0.0559 0.1030 0.1546 0.1968 0.2169 0.2095
7 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0058 0.0186 0.0442 0.0833 0.1312 0.1775 0.2095
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0047 0.0142 0.0336 0.0656 0.1089 0.1571
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0009 0.0034 0.0101 0.0243 0.0495 0.0873
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0022 0.0065 0.0162 0.0349
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0012 0.0036 0.0095
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
14 0 0.4877 0.2288 0.1028 0.0440 0.0178 0.0068 0.0024 0.0008 0.0002 0.0001
1 0.3593 0.3559 0.2539 0.1539 0.0832 0.0407 0.0181 0.0073 0.0027 0.0009
2 0.1229 0.2570 0.2912 0.2501 0.1802 0.1134 0.0634 0.0317 0.0141 0.0056
3 0.0259 0.1142 0.2056 0.2501 0.2402 0.1943 0.1366 0.0845 0.0462 0.0222
4 0.0037 0.0349 0.0998 0.1720 0.2202 0.2290 0.2022 0.1549 0.1040 0.0611
5 0.0004 0.0078 0.0352 0.0860 0.1468 0.1963 0.2178 0.2066 0.1701 0.1222
6 0.0000 0.0013 0.0093 0.0322 0.0734 0.1262 0.1759 0.2066 0.2088 0.1833
7 0.0000 0.0002 0.0019 0.0092 0.0280 0.0618 0.1082 0.1574 0.1952 0.2095
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0020 0.0082 0.0232 0.0510 0.0918 0.1398 0.1833
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0018 0.0066 0.0183 0.0408 0.0762 0.1222
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0014 0.0049 0.0136 0.0312 0.0611
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0010 0.0033 0.0093 0.0222
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0019 0.0056
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0009
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
Table 9 Binomial probabilities
p
n g .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
15 0 0.4633 0.2059 0.0874 0.0352 0.0134 0.0047 0.0016 0.0005 0.0001 0.0000
1 0.3658 0.3432 0.2312 0.1319 0.0668 0.0305 0.0126 0.0047 0.0016 0.0005
2 0.1348 0.2669 0.2856 0.2309 0.1559 0.0916 0.0476 0.0219 0.0090 0.0032
3 0.0307 0.1285 0.2184 0.2501 0.2252 0.1700 0.1110 0.0634 0.0318 0.0139
4 0.0049 0.0428 0.1156 0.1876 0.2252 0.2186 0.1792 0.1268 0.0780 0.0417
5 0.0006 0.0105 0.0449 0.1032 0.1651 0.2061 0.2123 0.1859 0.1404 0.0916
6 0.0000 0.0019 0.0132 0.0430 0.0917 0.1472 0.1906 0.2066 0.1914 0.1527
7 0.0000 0.0003 0.0030 0.0138 0.0393 0.0811 0.1319 0.1771 0.2013 0.1964
8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 0.0035 0.0131 0.0348 0.0710 0.1181 0.1647 0.1964
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0007 0.0034 0.0116 0.0298 0.0612 0.1048 0.1527
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0007 0.0030 0.0096 0.0245 0.0515 0.0916
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0024 0.0074 0.0191 0.0417
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0016 0.0052 0.0139
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010 0.0032
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
16 0 0.4401 0.1853 0.0743 0.0281 0.0100 0.0033 0.0010 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000
1 0.3706 0.3294 0.2097 0.1126 0.0535 0.0228 0.0087 0.0030 0.0009 0.0002
2 0.1463 0.2745 0.2775 0.2111 0.1336 0.0732 0.0353 0.0150 0.0056 0.0018
3 0.0359 0.1423 0.2285 0.2463 0.2079 0.1465 0.0888 0.0468 0.0215 0.0085
4 0.0061 0.0514 0.1311 0.2001 0.2252 0.2040 0.1553 0.1014 0.0572 0.0278
5 0.0008 0.0137 0.0555 0.1201 0.1802 0.2099 0.2008 0.1623 0.1123 0.0667
6 0.0001 0.0028 0.0180 0.0550 0.1101 0.1649 0.1982 0.1983 0.1684 0.1222
7 0.0000 0.0004 0.0045 0.0197 0.0524 0.1010 0.1524 0.1889 0.1969 0.1746
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0009 0.0055 0.0197 0.0487 0.0923 0.1417 0.1812 0.1964
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0012 0.0058 0.0185 0.0442 0.0840 0.1318 0.1746
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0014 0.0056 0.0167 0.0392 0.0755 0.1222
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0013 0.0049 0.0142 0.0337 0.0667
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0011 0.0040 0.0115 0.0278
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0008 0.0029 0.0085
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0018
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
17 0 0.4181 0.1668 0.0631 0.0225 0.0075 0.0023 0.0007 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000
1 0.3741 0.3150 0.1893 0.0957 0.0426 0.0169 0.0060 0.0019 0.0005 0.0001
2 0.1575 0.2800 0.2673 0.1914 0.1136 0.0581 0.0260 0.0102 0.0035 0.0010
3 0.0415 0.1556 0.2359 0.2393 0.1893 0.1245 0.0701 0.0341 0.0144 0.0052
4 0.0076 0.0605 0.1457 0.2093 0.2209 0.1868 0.1320 0.0796 0.0411 0.0182
5 0.0010 0.0175 0.0668 0.1361 0.1914 0.2081 0.1849 0.1379 0.0875 0.0472
6 0.0001 0.0039 0.0236 0.0680 0.1276 0.1784 0.1991 0.1839 0.1432 0.0944
7 0.0000 0.0007 0.0065 0.0267 0.0668 0.1201 0.1685 0.1927 0.1841 0.1484
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0014 0.0084 0.0279 0.0644 0.1134 0.1606 0.1883 0.1855
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0021 0.0093 0.0276 0.0611 0.1070 0.1540 0.1855
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0025 0.0095 0.0263 0.0571 0.1008 0.1484
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0026 0.0090 0.0242 0.0525 0.0944
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0024 0.0081 0.0215 0.0472
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0021 0.0068 0.0182
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0016 0.0052
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Table 9 Binomial probabilities
p
n g .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
18 0 0.3972 0.1501 0.0536 0.0180 0.0056 0.0016 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
1 0.3763 0.3002 0.1704 0.0811 0.0338 0.0126 0.0042 0.0012 0.0003 0.0001
2 0.1683 0.2835 0.2556 0.1723 0.0958 0.0458 0.0190 0.0069 0.0022 0.0006
3 0.0473 0.1680 0.2406 0.2297 0.1704 0.1046 0.0547 0.0246 0.0095 0.0031
4 0.0093 0.0700 0.1592 0.2153 0.2130 0.1681 0.1104 0.0614 0.0291 0.0117
5 0.0014 0.0218 0.0787 0.1507 0.1988 0.2017 0.1664 0.1146 0.0666 0.0327
6 0.0002 0.0052 0.0301 0.0816 0.1436 0.1873 0.1941 0.1655 0.1181 0.0708
7 0.0000 0.0010 0.0091 0.0350 0.0820 0.1376 0.1792 0.1892 0.1657 0.1214
8 0.0000 0.0002 0.0022 0.0120 0.0376 0.0811 0.1327 0.1734 0.1864 0.1669
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0033 0.0139 0.0386 0.0794 0.1284 0.1694 0.1855
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0008 0.0042 0.0149 0.0385 0.0771 0.1248 0.1669
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0010 0.0046 0.0151 0.0374 0.0742 0.1214
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0012 0.0047 0.0145 0.0354 0.0708
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0012 0.0045 0.0134 0.0327
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0011 0.0039 0.0117
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0009 0.0031
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
19 0 0.3774 0.1351 0.0456 0.0144 0.0042 0.0011 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
1 0.3774 0.2852 0.1529 0.0685 0.0268 0.0093 0.0029 0.0008 0.0002 0.0000
2 0.1787 0.2852 0.2428 0.1540 0.0803 0.0358 0.0138 0.0046 0.0013 0.0003
3 0.0533 0.1796 0.2428 0.2182 0.1517 0.0869 0.0422 0.0175 0.0062 0.0018
4 0.0112 0.0798 0.1714 0.2182 0.2023 0.1491 0.0909 0.0467 0.0203 0.0074
5 0.0018 0.0266 0.0907 0.1636 0.2023 0.1916 0.1468 0.0933 0.0497 0.0222
6 0.0002 0.0069 0.0374 0.0955 0.1574 0.1916 0.1844 0.1451 0.0949 0.0518
7 0.0000 0.0014 0.0122 0.0443 0.0974 0.1525 0.1844 0.1797 0.1443 0.0961
8 0.0000 0.0002 0.0032 0.0166 0.0487 0.0981 0.1489 0.1797 0.1771 0.1442
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0007 0.0051 0.0198 0.0514 0.0980 0.1464 0.1771 0.1762
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0013 0.0066 0.0220 0.0528 0.0976 0.1449 0.1762
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0018 0.0077 0.0233 0.0532 0.0970 0.1442
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0022 0.0083 0.0237 0.0529 0.0961
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0024 0.0085 0.0233 0.0518
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0006 0.0024 0.0082 0.0222
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0022 0.0074
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0018
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
19 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Table 9 Binomial probabilities
p
n g .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
20 0 0.3585 0.1216 0.0388 0.0115 0.0032 0.0008 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1 0.3774 0.2702 0.1368 0.0576 0.0211 0.0068 0.0020 0.0005 0.0001 0.0000
2 0.1887 0.2852 0.2293 0.1369 0.0669 0.0278 0.0100 0.0031 0.0008 0.0002
3 0.0596 0.1901 0.2428 0.2054 0.1339 0.0716 0.0323 0.0123 0.0040 0.0011
4 0.0133 0.0898 0.1821 0.2182 0.1897 0.1304 0.0738 0.0350 0.0139 0.0046
5 0.0022 0.0319 0.1028 0.1746 0.2023 0.1789 0.1272 0.0746 0.0365 0.0148
6 0.0003 0.0089 0.0454 0.1091 0.1686 0.1916 0.1712 0.1244 0.0746 0.0370
7 0.0000 0.0020 0.0160 0.0545 0.1124 0.1643 0.1844 0.1659 0.1221 0.0739
8 0.0000 0.0004 0.0046 0.0222 0.0609 0.1144 0.1614 0.1797 0.1623 0.1201
9 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0074 0.0271 0.0654 0.1158 0.1597 0.1771 0.1602
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0020 0.0099 0.0308 0.0686 0.1171 0.1593 0.1762
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 0.0030 0.0120 0.0336 0.0710 0.1185 0.1602
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0008 0.0039 0.0136 0.0355 0.0727 0.1201
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0010 0.0045 0.0146 0.0366 0.0739
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0012 0.0049 0.0150 0.0370
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0013 0.0049 0.0148
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0013 0.0046
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0011
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
19 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
20 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Table 10 Poisson Probabilities
λ
g 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066 0.3679
1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3595 0.3659 0.3679
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647 0.1839
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494 0.0613
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111 0.0153
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020 0.0031
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0005
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
λ
g 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4
0 0.0450 0.0408 0.0369 0.0334 0.0302 0.0273 0.0247 0.0224 0.0202 0.0183
1 0.1397 0.1304 0.1217 0.1135 0.1057 0.0984 0.0915 0.0850 0.0789 0.0733
2 0.2165 0.2087 0.2008 0.1929 0.1850 0.1771 0.1692 0.1615 0.1539 0.1465
3 0.2237 0.2226 0.2209 0.2186 0.2158 0.2125 0.2087 0.2046 0.2001 0.1954
4 0.1733 0.1781 0.1823 0.1858 0.1888 0.1912 0.1931 0.1944 0.1951 0.1954
5 0.1075 0.1140 0.1203 0.1264 0.1322 0.1377 0.1429 0.1477 0.1522 0.1563
6 0.0555 0.0608 0.0662 0.0716 0.0771 0.0826 0.0881 0.0936 0.0989 0.1042
7 0.0246 0.0278 0.0312 0.0348 0.0385 0.0425 0.0466 0.0508 0.0551 0.0595
8 0.0095 0.0111 0.0129 0.0148 0.0169 0.0191 0.0215 0.0241 0.0269 0.0298
9 0.0033 0.0040 0.0047 0.0056 0.0066 0.0076 0.0089 0.0102 0.0116 0.0132
10 0.0010 0.0013 0.0016 0.0019 0.0023 0.0028 0.0033 0.0039 0.0045 0.0053
11 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0007 0.0009 0.0011 0.0013 0.0016 0.0019
12 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
λ
g 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6
0 0.0061 0.0055 0.0050 0.0045 0.0041 0.0037 0.0033 0.0030 0.0027 0.0025
1 0.0311 0.0287 0.0265 0.0244 0.0225 0.0207 0.0191 0.0176 0.0162 0.0149
2 0.0793 0.0746 0.0701 0.0659 0.0618 0.0580 0.0544 0.0509 0.0477 0.0446
3 0.1348 0.1293 0.1239 0.1185 0.1133 0.1082 0.1033 0.0985 0.0938 0.0892
4 0.1719 0.1681 0.1641 0.1600 0.1558 0.1515 0.1472 0.1428 0.1383 0.1339
5 0.1753 0.1748 0.1740 0.1728 0.1714 0.1697 0.1678 0.1656 0.1632 0.1606
6 0.1490 0.1515 0.1537 0.1555 0.1571 0.1584 0.1594 0.1601 0.1605 0.1606
7 0.1086 0.1125 0.1163 0.1200 0.1234 0.1267 0.1298 0.1326 0.1353 0.1377
8 0.0692 0.0731 0.0771 0.0810 0.0849 0.0887 0.0925 0.0962 0.0998 0.1033
9 0.0392 0.0423 0.0454 0.0486 0.0519 0.0552 0.0586 0.0620 0.0654 0.0688
10 0.0200 0.0220 0.0241 0.0262 0.0285 0.0309 0.0334 0.0359 0.0386 0.0413
11 0.0093 0.0104 0.0116 0.0129 0.0143 0.0157 0.0173 0.0190 0.0207 0.0225
12 0.0039 0.0045 0.0051 0.0058 0.0065 0.0073 0.0082 0.0092 0.0102 0.0113
13 0.0015 0.0018 0.0021 0.0024 0.0028 0.0032 0.0036 0.0041 0.0046 0.0052
14 0.0006 0.0007 0.0008 0.0009 0.0011 0.0013 0.0015 0.0017 0.0019 0.0022
15 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0007 0.0008 0.0009
16 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
λ
g 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8
0 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
1 0.0059 0.0054 0.0049 0.0045 0.0041 0.0038 0.0035 0.0032 0.0029 0.0027
2 0.0208 0.0194 0.0180 0.0167 0.0156 0.0145 0.0134 0.0125 0.0116 0.0107
3 0.0492 0.0464 0.0438 0.0413 0.0389 0.0366 0.0345 0.0324 0.0305 0.0286
4 0.0874 0.0836 0.0799 0.0764 0.0729 0.0696 0.0663 0.0632 0.0602 0.0573
5 0.1241 0.1204 0.1167 0.1130 0.1094 0.1057 0.1021 0.0986 0.0951 0.0916
6 0.1468 0.1445 0.1420 0.1394 0.1367 0.1339 0.1311 0.1282 0.1252 0.1221
7 0.1489 0.1486 0.1481 0.1474 0.1465 0.1454 0.1442 0.1428 0.1413 0.1396
8 0.1321 0.1337 0.1351 0.1363 0.1373 0.1381 0.1388 0.1392 0.1395 0.1396
9 0.1042 0.1070 0.1096 0.1121 0.1144 0.1167 0.1187 0.1207 0.1224 0.1241
10 0.0740 0.0770 0.0800 0.0829 0.0858 0.0887 0.0914 0.0941 0.0967 0.0993
11 0.0478 0.0504 0.0531 0.0558 0.0585 0.0613 0.0640 0.0667 0.0695 0.0722
12 0.0283 0.0303 0.0323 0.0344 0.0366 0.0388 0.0411 0.0434 0.0457 0.0481
13 0.0154 0.0168 0.0181 0.0196 0.0211 0.0227 0.0243 0.0260 0.0278 0.0296
14 0.0078 0.0086 0.0095 0.0104 0.0113 0.0123 0.0134 0.0145 0.0157 0.0169
15 0.0037 0.0041 0.0046 0.0051 0.0057 0.0062 0.0069 0.0075 0.0083 0.0090
16 0.0016 0.0019 0.0021 0.0024 0.0026 0.0030 0.0033 0.0037 0.0041 0.0045
17 0.0007 0.0008 0.0009 0.0010 0.0012 0.0013 0.0015 0.0017 0.0019 0.0021
18 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0007 0.0008 0.0009
19 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004
20 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002
21 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001
Table 10 Poisson Probabilities
λ
g 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1 0.0011 0.0005 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
2 0.0050 0.0023 0.0010 0.0004 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 0.0150 0.0076 0.0037 0.0018 0.0008 0.0004 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
4 0.0337 0.0189 0.0102 0.0053 0.0027 0.0013 0.0006 0.0003 0.0001 0.0001
5 0.0607 0.0378 0.0224 0.0127 0.0070 0.0037 0.0019 0.0010 0.0005 0.0002
6 0.0911 0.0631 0.0411 0.0255 0.0152 0.0087 0.0048 0.0026 0.0014 0.0007
7 0.1171 0.0901 0.0646 0.0437 0.0281 0.0174 0.0104 0.0060 0.0034 0.0019
8 0.1318 0.1126 0.0888 0.0655 0.0457 0.0304 0.0194 0.0120 0.0072 0.0042
9 0.1318 0.1251 0.1085 0.0874 0.0661 0.0473 0.0324 0.0213 0.0135 0.0083
10 0.1186 0.1251 0.1194 0.1048 0.0859 0.0663 0.0486 0.0341 0.0230 0.0150
11 0.0970 0.1137 0.1194 0.1144 0.1015 0.0844 0.0663 0.0496 0.0355 0.0245
12 0.0728 0.0948 0.1094 0.1144 0.1099 0.0984 0.0829 0.0661 0.0504 0.0368
13 0.0504 0.0729 0.0926 0.1056 0.1099 0.1060 0.0956 0.0814 0.0658 0.0509
14 0.0324 0.0521 0.0728 0.0905 0.1021 0.1060 0.1024 0.0930 0.0800 0.0655
15 0.0194 0.0347 0.0534 0.0724 0.0885 0.0989 0.1024 0.0992 0.0906 0.0786
16 0.0109 0.0217 0.0367 0.0543 0.0719 0.0866 0.0960 0.0992 0.0963 0.0884
17 0.0058 0.0128 0.0237 0.0383 0.0550 0.0713 0.0847 0.0934 0.0963 0.0936
18 0.0029 0.0071 0.0145 0.0255 0.0397 0.0554 0.0706 0.0830 0.0909 0.0936
19 0.0014 0.0037 0.0084 0.0161 0.0272 0.0409 0.0557 0.0699 0.0814 0.0887
20 0.0006 0.0019 0.0046 0.0097 0.0177 0.0286 0.0418 0.0559 0.0692 0.0798
21 0.0003 0.0009 0.0024 0.0055 0.0109 0.0191 0.0299 0.0426 0.0560 0.0684
22 0.0001 0.0004 0.0012 0.0030 0.0065 0.0121 0.0204 0.0310 0.0433 0.0560
23 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006 0.0016 0.0037 0.0074 0.0133 0.0216 0.0320 0.0438
24 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0008 0.0020 0.0043 0.0083 0.0144 0.0226 0.0328
25 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0010 0.0024 0.0050 0.0092 0.0154 0.0237
26 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0005 0.0013 0.0029 0.0057 0.0101 0.0164
27 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0007 0.0016 0.0034 0.0063 0.0109
28 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0009 0.0019 0.0038 0.0070
29 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0011 0.0023 0.0044
30 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0006 0.0013 0.0026
31 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0015
32 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 0.0009
33 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0005
34 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002
35 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
36 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
37 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Wdeoh 44= Uhjxodulvhg vhpl0ydulrjudp , E iru Vskhulfdo prgho
zlwk udqjh @ dqg vloo 413 iru ydulrxv glvwdqfhv
*u
@*u f 2f f ef Df Sf .f Hf bf ff
Df ff 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D 2D
ff eDf DDf DDf DDf DDf DDf DDf DDf DDf DDf
Df eS S.H SH SH SH SH SH SH SH SH
2ff e2 .2H .DS .DS .DS .DS .DS .DS .DS .DS
2Df DD .. Hf2 Hf Hf Hf Hf Hf Hf Hf
ff f. SSb H22 H D H D H D H D H D H D H D
Df 2Sb Sf H2 HDH HDH HDH HDH HDH HDH HDH
eff 2 b DDD ..H HSH H.S H.S H.S H.S H.S H.S
eDf 2D Df. . HS HHb HHb HHb HHb HHb HHb
Dff be eSe SHS H S HbS bff bff bff bff bff
DDf .H e2H Se2 Hf2 Hbf bfb bfb bfb bfb bfb
Sff S bS Sf .Se H.2 be b. b. b. b.
SDf D SH DSe .2S HeD bfb b2 b2 b2 b2
.ff e ee D f Sbf He HbD b2S b2b b2b b2b
.Df 2 2 Dff SDD .H2 H.e b2 b b b
Hff 2e fe e.2 S2 .D Heb b2 b S b H b H
HDf . 2H. ee. Db .2f H22 Hbe b be be
bff f 2.2 e2D DSS Sbf .be H.e b2e be beD
bDf fe 2DH efe De SS .S. HD bf be be.
fff fbb 2eS HS D. S S .e H2. Hb2 b beb
Wdeoh 45= Dx{loldu| ixqfwlrq 8 Euc iru Vskhulfdo prgho
zlwk udqjh 413 dqg vloo 413
u 2 e D S . H b f
f f.H 2f SD 2 2DS ff e2 H e22 eD.
2f 2f DD bS 2 . 2Hf 2 S2 ef e H e.
f SD bS 2 2.f fb eb H. e2e eSf eb
ef 2 2 . 2.f fD e2 .b eD eD eHe DS
Df 2DS 2Hf fb e2 .S e eeD e.b D De
Sf ff 2 eb .b e ee e.S Df. D H DSS
.f e2 S2 H. eD eeD e.S DfS D S DSD Db
Hf H ef e2e eD e.b Df. D S DSe Db SS
bf e22 e H eSf eHe D D H DSD Db SS Sef
ff eD. e. eb DS De DSS Db SS Sef SS2
2f D2f D e DD D.2 Db SS S H SSf SH2 .f
ef D.2 DHe Sff SH S . SD. S.. Sb. .S .
Sf Se S2D S b SDD S. Sb .fb .2. .ee .Sf
Hf SDf SDb S.2 SH. .f .b . S .D2 .S. .H2
2ff S.b SHH .ff . .2H .e .DH .. .H. Hff
2Df . D .e .D2 .S ..D .HH Hff H H2e H D
ff ..D .H .Hb .bb Hfb H2f H f He HD HSf
Df Hfe Hf H. H2D H e He HD2 HS H.f H.H
eff H2. H 2 H H HeD HD HS H.f H.H HHD Hb2
Dff HSf HSe HSb H.e HH HH. Hbe bf bf. b
u 2 e S H 2f 2D f D ef Df
f D2f D.2 Se SDf S.b . D ..D Hfe H2. HSf
2f D e DHe S2D SDb SHH .e .H Hf H 2 HSe
f DD Sff S b S.2 .ff .D2 .Hb H. H H HSb
ef D.2 SH SDD SH. . .S .bb H2D HeD H.e
Df Db S . S. .f .2H ..D Hfb H e HD HH
Sf SS SD. Sb .b .e .HH H2f He HS HH.
.f S H S.. .fb . S .DH Hff H f HD2 H.f Hbe
Hf SSf Sb. .2. .D2 .. H He HS H.H bf
bf SH2 .S .ee .S. .H. H2e HD H.f HHD bf.
ff .f . .Sf .H2 Hff H D HSf H.H Hb2 b
2f . S .Se .HH Hf. H2 HDe H.S Hb2 bfD b2
ef .Se .bf H H2H He2 H.f Hbf bfe bD b
Sf .HH H H2b HeD HDH HH bf be b2e b H
Hf Hf. H2H HeD HDb H. Hbe bf b2 b bee
2ff H2 He2 HDH H. HH2 bf b. b2H b S beH
2Df HDe H.f HH Hbe bf b2f b 2 be beH bD.
ff H.S Hbf bf bf b. b 2 be2 bDf bDD bSe
Df Hb2 bfe be b2 b2H be bDf bDS bS bSb
eff bfD bD b2e b b S beH bDD bS bSS b.2
Dff b2 b b H bee beH bD. bSe bSb b.2 b..
Wdeoh 46= Dx{loldu| ixqfwlrq 8 Euc uc iru Vskhulfdo prgho
zlwk udqjh 413 dqg vloo 413
u 14 15 16 17 18 19 1: 1; 1< 413
143 13<< 1469 14:; 1555 1599 163< 1683 16<3 175; 1797
153 149; 14<9 1564 159< 163; 167: 16;8 1756 178; 17<4
163 156< 1595 15<4 1657 168; 16<7 175< 1796 17<9 185:
173 1644 165< 1686 16;5 1746 1778 17:9 183; 186; 1899
183 16;3 16<8 1749 1774 179; 17<: 1859 1887 18;4 193:
193 1778 178< 17:: 17<< 1856 187< 18:7 1933 1957 197;
1:3 183: 184< 1868 1887 18:9 18<; 1955 1977 1999 19;:
1;3 1898 18:7 18;; 1939 1958 1978 1999 19;9 1:38 1:57
1<3 1949 1958 196: 1985 199< 19;: 1:39 1:57 1:74 1:8:
4133 1995 199< 19;3 19<7 1:3< 1:58 1:74 1:8: 1::5 1:;9
4153 1:68 1:74 1:83 1:93 1::5 1:;8 1:<: 1;43 1;55 1;66
4173 1:;< 1:<7 1;33 1;3< 1;4; 1;5; 1;6< 1;7< 1;8; 1;9:
4193 1;5; 1;65 1;6; 1;78 1;85 1;94 1;9< 1;:: 1;;8 1;<5
41;3 1;8; 1;94 1;99 1;:5 1;:; 1;;8 1;<5 1;<< 1<38 1<44
5133 1;;3 1;;6 1;;: 1;<5 1;<: 1<36 1<3< 1<48 1<53 1<58
5183 1<4; 1<53 1<56 1<59 1<63 1<67 1<6; 1<75 1<79 1<7<
6133 1<73 1<74 1<77 1<79 1<7< 1<85 1<88 1<8; 1<93 1<96
6183 1<87 1<88 1<8: 1<8< 1<94 1<96 1<99 1<9; 1<:3 1<:5
7133 1<96 1<97 1<98 1<9: 1<9< 1<:3 1<:5 1<:7 1<:9 1<::
8133 1<:7 1<:8 1<:9 1<:; 1<:< 1<;3 1<;4 1<;6 1<;7 1<;8
u 415 417 419 41; 513 518 613 618 713 813
143 1859 18:: 194< 1986 19;6 1:6; 1::: 1;3: 1;5< 1;94
153 1883 18<; 196; 19:4 19<< 1:84 1:;< 1;49 1;6: 1;9;
163 18;4 1959 1996 19<6 1:4< 1:9; 1;36 1;5< 1;7< 1;::
173 1949 198: 19<4 1:4< 1:75 1:;: 1;4< 1;76 1;94 1;;:
183 1985 19;< 1:53 1:78 1:9: 1;3; 1;69 1;8; 1;:7 1;<;
193 19;; 1:55 1:7< 1::5 1:<4 1;5; 1;87 1;:6 1;;: 1<3<
1:3 1:56 1:86 1::: 1:<; 1;48 1;7: 1;:3 1;;: 1<33 1<4<
1;3 1:89 1:;5 1;37 1;55 1;6: 1;98 1;;9 1<34 1<45 1<5<
1<3 1:;8 1;3< 1;5; 1;76 1;8: 1;;5 1<33 1<46 1<56 1<6:
4133 1;44 1;65 1;7< 1;95 1;:7 1;<9 1<45 1<56 1<65 1<78
4153 1;86 1;9< 1;;5 1;<6 1<35 1<4< 1<64 1<73 1<7: 1<8:
4173 1;;6 1;<9 1<39 1<48 1<55 1<69 1<78 1<85 1<8; 1<99
4193 1<38 1<48 1<57 1<64 1<6: 1<7; 1<89 1<94 1<99 1<:5
41;3 1<55 1<63 1<6: 1<76 1<7; 1<8: 1<96 1<9; 1<:5 1<::
5133 1<67 1<74 1<7: 1<85 1<89 1<97 1<9< 1<:6 1<:9 1<;4
5183 1<88 1<93 1<97 1<9: 1<:3 1<:8 1<:< 1<;5 1<;7 1<;:
6133 1<9: 1<:4 1<:7 1<:9 1<:; 1<;5 1<;8 1<;: 1<;; 1<<4
6183 1<:8 1<:; 1<;3 1<;5 1<;6 1<;9 1<;; 1<<3 1<<4 1<<6
7133 1<;3 1<;5 1<;7 1<;9 1<;: 1<;< 1<<4 1<<5 1<<6 1<<7
8133 1<;: 1<;; 1<;< 1<<3 1<<4 1<<6 1<<7 1<<8 1<<8 1<<9
Wdeoh 47= Dx{loldu| ixqfwlrq Euc iru Vskhulfdo prgho
zlwk udqjh 413 dqg vloo 413
u 14 15 16 17 18 19 1: 1; 1< 413
143 13<; 1469 14:; 1555 1599 163< 1683 16<3 175; 1797
153 1497 14<7 155< 159; 163: 1679 16;8 1755 178; 17<4
163 1566 158: 15;; 1654 1689 16<5 175: 1795 17<8 1859
173 1635 1655 167; 16:; 173< 1774 17:7 1838 1868 1897
183 169; 16;8 173; 1767 1795 17<5 1854 1883 18:: 1936
193 1763 1778 1799 17;< 1848 1874 189; 18<7 194< 1975
1:3 17;; 1835 1853 1874 1897 18;; 1945 1969 198; 19;3
1;3 1875 1887 18:3 18;< 1943 1964 1986 19:7 19<8 1:47
1<3 18;< 1933 1947 1965 1983 19:3 19;< 1:3; 1:5: 1:77
4133 195< 196< 1986 199; 19;8 1:36 1:53 1:6: 1:87 1:9<
4153 19<4 19<< 1:44 1:56 1:6: 1:85 1:9: 1:;4 1:<8 1;3;
4173 1:68 1:75 1:85 1:96 1::8 1:;; 1;33 1;45 1;57 1;68
4193 1:9; 1::8 1:;6 1:<6 1;36 1;47 1;58 1;69 1;79 1;89
41;3 1:<7 1;33 1;3: 1;49 1;58 1;68 1;78 1;87 1;96 1;:5
5133 1;48 1;53 1;59 1;67 1;75 1;84 1;93 1;9< 1;:: 1;;8
5183 1;85 1;89 1;94 1;9: 1;:7 1;;4 1;;; 1;<8 1<35 1<3;
6133 1;:9 1;;3 1;;7 1;;< 1;<8 1<34 1<3: 1<45 1<4; 1<56
6183 1;<7 1;<: 1<34 1<38 1<43 1<48 1<53 1<58 1<63 1<67
7133 1<3: 1<43 1<46 1<4: 1<54 1<59 1<63 1<67 1<6; 1<75
8133 1<59 1<5; 1<64 1<67 1<6: 1<74 1<77 1<7: 1<84 1<87
u 415 417 419 41; 513 518 613 618 713 813
143 1859 18:: 194< 1986 19;6 1:6; 1::: 1;3: 1;5< 1;94
153 1883 18<; 196; 19:4 19<; 1:84 1:;; 1;49 1;6: 1;9;
163 18;3 1958 1995 19<6 1:4< 1:9; 1;36 1;5; 1;7; 1;::
173 1947 1988 19;< 1:4; 1:74 1:;: 1;4< 1;75 1;94 1;;:
183 197< 19;: 1:4; 1:76 1:98 1;39 1;68 1;8: 1;:6 1;<:
193 19;7 1:4; 1:79 1:9< 1:;; 1;58 1;85 1;:4 1;;9 1<3:
1:3 1:4: 1:7: 1::5 1:<6 1;44 1;77 1;9: 1;;8 1;<; 1<4:
1;3 1:7: 1::7 1:<: 1;48 1;64 1;94 1;;4 1;<: 1<3< 1<59
1<3 1::7 1:<; 1;4; 1;68 1;7< 1;:8 1;<7 1<3; 1<4< 1<67
4133 1:<9 1;4; 1;69 1;84 1;97 1;;; 1<38 1<4: 1<5: 1<74
4153 1;63 1;7; 1;97 1;:9 1;;9 1<39 1<53 1<64 1<6< 1<83
4173 1;87 1;:3 1;;6 1;<7 1<36 1<53 1<65 1<74 1<7; 1<8;
4193 1;:6 1;;9 1;<; 1<3: 1<48 1<63 1<73 1<7; 1<87 1<96
41;3 1;;: 1;<< 1<3< 1<4: 1<57 1<6; 1<7: 1<87 1<8< 1<9:
5133 1;<; 1<3< 1<4; 1<59 1<65 1<77 1<85 1<8< 1<96 1<:3
5183 1<4; 1<5: 1<67 1<73 1<79 1<88 1<95 1<9: 1<:4 1<:9
6133 1<65 1<6< 1<78 1<83 1<88 1<96 1<9; 1<:5 1<:9 1<;3
6183 1<75 1<7; 1<86 1<8: 1<94 1<9; 1<:6 1<:9 1<:< 1<;6
7133 1<7< 1<88 1<8< 1<96 1<99 1<:5 1<:9 1<:< 1<;5 1<;8
8133 1<8< 1<97 1<9: 1<:3 1<:6 1<:; 1<;4 1<;6 1<;8 1<;;
Wdeoh 48= Dx{loldu| ixqfwlrq KEO/E iru Vskhulfdo prgho
zlwk udqjh 413 dqg vloo 413
u 14 15 16 17 18 19 1: 1; 1< 413
143 1447 14:: 1576 1643 16:7 1769 17<7 1879 18<6 1966
153 14:: 155: 15;8 1679 1739 1797 184; 189; 1946 1984
163 1576 15;8 1669 16<3 1778 17<< 1883 18<: 196< 19:7
173 1643 1679 16<3 176< 17;< 186< 18;9 195< 199; 1:34
183 16:7 1739 1778 17;< 1868 18;3 1956 1996 19<; 1:5;
193 1769 1797 17<< 186< 18;3 1954 1993 19<: 1:5; 1:88
1:3 17<7 184; 1883 18;9 1956 1993 19<9 1:5< 1:8: 1:;4
1;3 1879 189; 18<: 195< 1996 19<: 1:5< 1:8; 1:;6 1;38
1<3 18<6 1946 196< 199; 19<; 1:5; 1:8: 1:;6 1;39 1;59
4133 1966 1984 19:7 1:34 1:5; 1:88 1:;4 1;38 1;59 1;76
4153 19<7 1:3< 1:5< 1:84 1::7 1:<9 1;4; 1;6: 1;88 1;9<
4173 1:6; 1:84 1:9: 1:;9 1;39 1;58 1;77 1;94 1;:8 1;;;
4193 1::4 1:;5 1:<: 1;46 1;63 1;7: 1;96 1;:; 1;<4 1<35
41;3 1:<9 1;39 1;4< 1;67 1;7< 1;97 1;:< 1;<5 1<36 1<46
5133 1;4: 1;59 1;6: 1;83 1;97 1;:; 1;<4 1<35 1<46 1<54
5183 1;86 1;93 1;:3 1;;3 1;<4 1<35 1<46 1<55 1<63 1<6:
6133 1;:; 1;;7 1;<4 1<33 1<3< 1<4; 1<5: 1<68 1<75 1<7;
6183 1;<8 1<33 1<3: 1<47 1<55 1<63 1<6; 1<77 1<83 1<88
7133 1<3; 1<46 1<4< 1<58 1<65 1<6< 1<78 1<84 1<89 1<94
8133 1<5: 1<63 1<68 1<73 1<79 1<84 1<89 1<94 1<98 1<9<
u 415 417 419 41; 513 518 613 618 713 813
143 19<7 1:6; 1::4 1:<9 1;4: 1;86 1;:; 1;<8 1<3; 1<5:
153 1:3< 1:84 1:;5 1;39 1;59 1;93 1;;7 1<33 1<46 1<63
163 1:5< 1:9: 1:<: 1;4< 1;6: 1;:3 1;<4 1<3: 1<4< 1<68
173 1:84 1:;9 1;46 1;67 1;83 1;;3 1<33 1<47 1<58 1<73
183 1::7 1;39 1;63 1;7< 1;97 1;<4 1<3< 1<55 1<65 1<79
193 1:<9 1;58 1;7: 1;97 1;:; 1<35 1<4; 1<63 1<6< 1<84
1:3 1;4; 1;77 1;96 1;:< 1;<4 1<46 1<5: 1<6; 1<78 1<89
1;3 1;6: 1;94 1;:; 1;<5 1<35 1<55 1<68 1<77 1<84 1<94
1<3 1;88 1;:8 1;<4 1<36 1<46 1<63 1<75 1<83 1<89 1<98
4133 1;9< 1;;; 1<35 1<46 1<54 1<6: 1<7; 1<88 1<94 1<9<
4153 1;<4 1<3: 1<4; 1<5: 1<68 1<7; 1<89 1<96 1<9: 1<:7
4173 1<3: 1<53 1<63 1<6; 1<77 1<88 1<96 1<9; 1<:5 1<:;
4193 1<4; 1<63 1<6< 1<78 1<84 1<94 1<9: 1<:5 1<:8 1<;3
41;3 1<5: 1<6; 1<78 1<85 1<89 1<98 1<:4 1<:8 1<:; 1<;6
5133 1<68 1<77 1<84 1<89 1<94 1<9< 1<:7 1<:; 1<;3 1<;7
5183 1<7; 1<88 1<94 1<98 1<9< 1<:8 1<:< 1<;5 1<;7 1<;:
6133 1<89 1<96 1<9: 1<:4 1<:7 1<:< 1<;6 1<;8 1<;: 1<<3
6183 1<96 1<9; 1<:5 1<:8 1<:; 1<;5 1<;8 1<;: 1<;< 1<<4
7133 1<9: 1<:5 1<:8 1<:; 1<;3 1<;7 1<;: 1<;< 1<<3 1<<5
8133 1<:7 1<:; 1<;3 1<;6 1<;7 1<;: 1<<3 1<<4 1<<5 1<<7
Wdeoh 49=1 Dx{loldu| ixqfwlrq EO/E iru Vskhulfdo prgho
zlwk udqjh 413 dqg vloo 413
u 14 15 16 17 18 19 1: 1; 1< 413
138 13<7 1465 14:8 154< 1596 1639 167; 16;; 1759 1794
143 1494 14;; 1556 1594 1633 1673 16:< 1749 1785 17;9
148 1564 1585 15;3 1645 167: 16;6 174< 1786 17;9 184;
153 1635 164; 1674 169< 1733 1765 1797 17<8 1859 1888
158 16:5 16;8 1737 175; 1788 17;6 1845 1874 189; 18<7
163 1773 1784 179: 17;; 1844 1869 1895 18;; 1946 1969
168 183: 1849 185< 187: 189; 18<3 1945 1968 198: 19:;
173 18:4 18:; 18<3 1938 1956 1975 1995 19;6 1:35 1:54
178 1965 196; 197; 1994 19:: 19<6 1:44 1:5< 1:79 1:95
183 19;< 19<8 1:36 1:48 1:5; 1:75 1:8; 1::6 1:;: 1;34
188 1:76 1:7; 1:88 1:98 1::9 1:;< 1;35 1;47 1;5: 1;6;
193 1:<6 1:<: 1;36 1;44 1;54 1;64 1;75 1;86 1;96 1;:5
198 1;6< 1;75 1;7: 1;87 1;95 1;:3 1;:< 1;;; 1;<9 1<36
1:3 1;:< 1;;5 1;;9 1;<5 1;<; 1<38 1<45 1<4< 1<58 1<63
1:8 1<48 1<4: 1<53 1<58 1<63 1<68 1<73 1<78 1<7< 1<86
1;3 1<78 1<79 1<7< 1<85 1<89 1<93 1<96 1<99 1<9< 1<:4
1;8 1<9; 1<:3 1<:4 1<:7 1<:9 1<:; 1<;4 1<;5 1<;7 1<;8
1<3 1<;9 1<;: 1<;; 1<;< 1<<3 1<<4 1<<5 1<<6 1<<7 1<<7
1<8 1<<9 1<<: 1<<: 1<<; 1<<; 1<<; 1<<; 1<<< 1<<< 1<<<
4133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
u 415 417 419 41; 513 518 613 618 713 813
138 1857 18:8 194: 1985 19;4 1:6: 1::: 1;39 1;5; 1;94
143 1878 18<7 1967 199: 19<8 1:7; 1:;9 1;47 1;69 1;9:
148 18:6 194< 1989 19;: 1:47 1:97 1:<< 1;58 1;79 1;:8
153 1938 197; 19;5 1:44 1:68 1:;5 1;47 1;6; 1;8: 1;;7
158 1974 19:< 1:44 1:6: 1:8< 1;34 1;64 1;86 1;:3 1;<7
163 19:; 1:45 1:74 1:97 1:;7 1;55 1;7; 1;9; 1;;6 1<38
168 1:48 1:79 1::4 1:<5 1;3< 1;76 1;99 1;;7 1;<: 1<4:
173 1:86 1:;3 1;34 1;53 1;68 1;97 1;;7 1;<< 1<44 1<5;
178 1:<3 1;45 1;64 1;7: 1;93 1;;7 1<35 1<48 1<57 1<6<
183 1;58 1;77 1;93 1;:5 1;;6 1<37 1<4; 1<5< 1<6: 1<7<
188 1;8; 1;:6 1;;9 1;<: 1<39 1<55 1<67 1<76 1<7< 1<8<
193 1;;; 1<34 1<44 1<4< 1<59 1<6< 1<7; 1<88 1<93 1<9;
198 1<48 1<58 1<66 1<6< 1<77 1<87 1<94 1<99 1<:3 1<:9
1:3 1<6< 1<79 1<85 1<89 1<93 1<9: 1<:5 1<:9 1<:< 1<;6
1:8 1<8< 1<97 1<9; 1<:4 1<:7 1<:; 1<;5 1<;7 1<;9 1<;<
1;3 1<:8 1<:; 1<;4 1<;6 1<;7 1<;: 1<;< 1<<4 1<<5 1<<6
1;8 1<;: 1<;< 1<<3 1<<4 1<<5 1<<6 1<<7 1<<8 1<<9 1<<:
1<3 1<<8 1<<9 1<<9 1<<: 1<<: 1<<: 1<<; 1<<; 1<<; 1<<<
1<8 1<<< 1<<< 1<<< 1<<< 1<<< 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
4133 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333 41333
Chapter2.dat
Soil Organic Matter values in a research field near North Platte, Nebraska, USA.
East (meters) North (meters) Soil Org Matter (g/kg)
3 180 13.8
3 156 12.8
3 132 9.7
3 108 10
3 84 10.5
3 60 14.8
3 36 10.1
3 12 9.5
12 180 12.8
12 156 14.7
12 132 13.1
12 108 12
12 84 11.5
12 60 11.2
12 36 10.7
12 12 10.5
21 180 11.2
21 156 11.2
21 132 12.3
21 108 13.1
21 84 12.8
21 60 12.7
21 36 12
21 12 9.5
30 180 10.7
30 156 10.7
30 132 10.6
30 108 12
30 84 15
30 60 13
30 36 15.2
30 12 10
39 180 13.4
39 156 12.4
39 132 12.7
39 108 6.5
39 84 12.3
39 60 12.8
39 36 13.8
39 12 11.2
48 180 12.3
48 156 11.9
48 132 12.7
48 108 13.2
48 84 10.5
48 60 12.3
48 36 14.4
48 12 10.5
57 180 13.1
57 156 12
57 132 12
57 108 14.6
57 84 12.8
Organics.dat
Soil Organic Matter values in a research field near North Platte, Nebraska, USA.
East (meters) North (meters) Soil Org Matter (g/kg)
57 60 14.8
57 36 15.2
57 12 12
66 180 12.4
66 156 14.8
66 132 14.6
66 108 15.4
66 84 12.8
66 60 15.6
66 36 17.6
66 12 12
75 180 12.8
75 156 13.2
75 132 15.8
75 108 13.6
75 84 14.4
75 60 14.6
75 36 14.6
75 12 11.6
84 180 17.6
84 156 16.8
84 132 14.4
84 108 14.2
84 84 15.2
84 60 17.6
84 36 15.2
84 12 13.6
93 180 17
93 156 16.8
93 132 18.8
93 108 20.1
93 84 18
93 60 14.4
93 36 12.7
93 12 11.5
102 180 14.4
102 156 14.8
102 132 16.4
102 108 17.6
102 84 20.1
102 60 15.6
102 36 12.6
102 12 11.2
111 180 16.8
111 156 17.6
111 132 11.6
111 108 16.8
111 84 18.4
111 60 15.4
111 36 14.8
111 12 11.1
Page95.dat
Scallop data were collected during 1990 off the east coast of North America.
STRATA designator Sample no. per year latitude longitude Tot scallops caught < 70 mm > 70 mm
6350 1 40.55 71.55 0 0 0
6350 2 40.46667 71.51667 0 0 0
6350 3 40.51667 71.71667 0 0 0
6350 4 40.38333 71.85 1 0 1
6350 5 40.31667 71.78333 0 0 0
6350 6 40.26667 71.88333 0 0 0
6310 7 40.13333 72.08333 2 1 1
6310 8 40.06667 72.16667 0 0 0
6310 9 40.1 72.31667 7 3 4
6310 10 40.01667 72.4 13 6 7
6310 11 39.9 72.56667 530 286 244
6310 12 39.81667 72.48333 2750 2278 472
6310 13 39.85 72.58333 2060 1496 564
6310 14 39.81667 72.68333 1016 382 634
6310 15 39.76667 72.73333 1206 808 398
6310 16 39.68333 72.61667 30 25 5
6280 17 39.58333 72.65 110 59 51
6280 18 39.5 72.53333 0 0 0
6280 19 39.43333 72.63333 0 0 0
6280 20 39.46667 72.66667 722 271 451
6280 21 39.43333 72.73333 41 12 29
6280 22 39.4 72.8 39 10 29
6280 23 39.31667 72.73333 0 0 0
6280 24 39.33333 72.85 94 10 84
6280 25 39.26667 72.81667 7 0 7
6280 26 39.21667 72.78333 0 0 0
6240 27 38.96667 72.98333 0 0 0
6240 28 38.86667 73.18333 33 6 27
6240 30 38.76667 73.18333 0 0 0
6240 31 38.65 73.25 0 0 0
6240 32 38.6 73.38333 1 0 1
6230 101 38.68333 73.61667 344 79 265
6230 102 38.65 73.53333 942 326 616
6230 103 38.73333 73.51667 758 150 608
6220 104 38.76667 73.6 83 14 69
6220 105 38.81667 73.7 60 32 28
6220 106 38.93333 73.51667 27 13 14
6230 107 38.88333 73.43333 119 15 104
6230 108 38.85 73.35 482 165 317
6230 109 38.93333 73.28333 151 65 86
6220 110 39.01667 73.48333 20 4 16
6220 111 39.15 73.55 16 8 8
6220 112 39.13333 73.45 26 6 20
6220 113 39.23333 73.31667 18 6 12
6220 114 39.3 73.31667 30 3 27
6230 115 39.33333 73.21667 55 7 48
6230 116 39.21667 73.13333 86 18 68
6230 117 39.13333 73.15 1336 880 456
6230 118 39.1 73.18333 239 58 181
6230 119 39.01667 73.15 459 110 349
6230 120 39.06667 73.08333 229 62 167
Scallops.dat
Scallop data were collected during 1990 off the east coast of North America.
STRATA designator Sample no. per year latitude longitude Tot scallops caught < 70 mm > 70 mm
6230 121 39.18333 73.1 105 62 43
6230 122 39.28333 72.98333 557 251 306
6230 123 39.31667 72.93333 5056 2896 2160
6270 124 39.38333 72.91667 2500 1740 760
6230 126 39.38333 73.11667 264 74 190
6260 128 39.51667 73.11667 10 2 8
6250 129 39.51667 73.15 8 6 2
6260 130 39.65 73.06667 28 1 27
6270 131 39.65 72.98333 46 13 33
6270 132 39.55 72.96667 370 173 197
6270 133 39.6 72.88333 316 66 250
6270 134 39.51667 72.88333 970 482 488
6270 135 39.48333 72.85 476 224 252
6270 136 39.5 72.73333 7084 4487 2597
6270 137 39.55 72.8 3246 2316 930
6270 138 39.63333 72.76667 322 216 106
6270 139 39.71667 72.85 0 0 0
6270 140 39.8 72.95 0 0 0
6270 141 39.71667 73 16 4 12
6260 142 39.71667 73.05 17 5 12
6260 143 39.76667 73.11667 15 5 10
6270 144 39.81667 73.06667 17 1 16
6260 146 39.88333 73.25 41 15 26
6260 148 39.93333 73.28333 4 0 4
6260 149 39.9 73.35 139 29 110
6270 150 39.98333 73.35 0 0 0
6260 151 40.01667 73.28333 5 2 3
6260 152 40.03333 73.36667 3 1 2
6260 153 40 73.45 21 6 15
6270 154 40.05 73.48333 0 0 0
6260 155 40.11667 73.56667 14 9 5
6250 156 40.15 73.55 4 1 3
6270 157 40.13333 73.61667 0 0 0
6260 158 40.16667 73.66667 1 0 1
6250 159 40.21667 73.55 0 0 0
6290 160 40.15 73.28333 9 0 9
6300 161 39.98333 73.05 13 1 12
6270 162 39.9 73.11667 3 0 3
6310 163 39.85 72.98333 3 0 3
6300 164 39.9 72.91667 114 33 81
6300 165 39.85 72.78333 471 202 269
6310 166 39.98333 72.58333 842 556 286
6300 167 39.98333 72.75 326 254 72
6300 168 39.98333 72.81667 52 23 29
6300 170 40.1 72.91667 22 3 19
6300 171 40.18333 72.85 21 10 11
6300 172 40.1 72.81667 26 4 22
6310 173 40.06667 72.51667 91 33 58
6310 174 40.15 72.55 70 44 26
6310 175 40.18333 72.45 35 1 34
6310 176 40.21667 72.51667 42 12 30
Scallops.dat
Scallop data were collected during 1990 off the east coast of North America.
STRATA designator Sample no. per year latitude longitude Tot scallops caught < 70 mm > 70 mm
6310 177 40.23333 72.68333 42 11 31
6300 178 40.31667 72.61667 20 2 18
6300 179 40.4 72.68333 17 8 9
6290 180 40.51667 72.68333 25 6 19
6290 181 40.55 72.48333 19 8 11
6290 182 40.45 72.53333 20 11 9
6300 183 40.46667 72.46667 41 29 12
6300 184 40.4 72.41667 46 23 23
6300 185 40.31667 72.43333 30 2 28
6310 186 40.31667 72.35 21 8 13
6310 187 40.23333 72.35 37 6 31
6310 188 40.18333 72.3 290 210 80
6310 189 40.23333 72.18333 207 72 135
6340 190 40.91667 71.76667 297 128 169
6340 191 40.86667 71.8 46 7 39
6330 192 40.86667 71.85 23 7 16
6330 193 40.9 71.95 1 0 1
6330 194 40.85 72.06667 9 0 9
6330 195 40.81667 72.18333 20 4 16
6330 196 40.81667 72.3 0 0 0
6330 197 40.81667 72.38333 0 0 0
6330 198 40.78333 72.35 33 31 2
6330 199 40.66667 72.38333 28 15 13
6290 200 40.58333 72.38333 159 126 33
6340 201 40.61667 72.31667 62 45 17
6340 202 40.56667 72.25 76 11 65
6340 204 40.56667 72.18333 106 20 86
6350 205 40.53333 72.18333 71 17 54
6300 206 40.5 72.31667 50 13 37
6310 207 40.43333 72.28333 68 14 54
6310 208 40.35 72.25 24 7 17
6310 209 40.31667 72.15 26 4 22
6350 210 40.36667 72.1 11 1 10
6350 211 40.45 71.96667 3 3 0
6350 212 40.56667 71.98333 26 5 21
6340 213 40.6 72.01667 34 7 27
6340 214 40.6 72.13333 75 32 43
6340 215 40.65 72.16667 143 87 56
6340 216 40.65 72.08333 62 25 37
6340 217 40.7 72.05 31 20 11
6330 218 40.73333 72.05 230 160 70
6340 219 40.71667 71.98333 8 1 7
6340 220 40.66667 71.83333 114 35 79
6340 221 40.73333 71.88333 8 3 5
6330 222 40.76667 71.91667 8 0 8
6340 224 40.75 71.83333 38 8 30
velvetlf.dat
Potentiometric Levels (feet) for Wolfcamp Aquifer -- New Mexico and Texas
Easting (X) Northing (Y) Potentiometric Level
42.8 127.6 1464
-27.4 90.8 2553
-1.2 84.9 2158
-18.6 76.5 2455
96.5 64.6 1756
108.6 82.9 1702
88.4 56.5 1805
90 39.3 1797
93.2 33.1 1714
97.6 56.3 1466
90.6 35.1 1729
92.6 41.8 1638
99.5 59.2 1736
-24.1 184.8 1476
-26.1 114.1 2200
56.3 26.8 1999
73 18.9 1680
80.3 12.6 1806
80.2 14.6 1682
68.8 107.8 1306
76.4 96 1722
64.5 110.4 1437
43.4 53.6 1828
39.1 62 2118
112.8 45.5 1725
54.3 147.8 1606
6.1 48.3 2648
-3.8 40.4 2560
-2.2 29.9 2544
-2.4 33.8 2386
-2.2 33.7 2400
63.2 79.5 1757
-10.8 175.1 1402
-19 171.9 1364
-38.6 158.5 1735
83.1 159.1 1376
-21.8 15 2729
-23.6 9.4 2766
-20.1 22.1 2736
-16.6 17.3 2432
29.9 175.1 1024
100.9 23 1611
101.3 23 1548
103.3 20.3 1591
-14.3 31.3 2540
-18.1 30.2 2352
-18.1 29.5 2528
-9.9 38.1 2575
-12.2 39.1 2468
11.7 18.7 2646
Wolfcamp.dat
Potentiometric Levels (feet) for Wolfcamp Aquifer -- New Mexico and Texas
Easting (X) Northing (Y) Potentiometric Level
61.7 32.5 1739
69.6 33.8 1674
66.7 33.9 1868
-36.7 150.9 1865
-19.6 137.8 1777
-21.3 131.8 1579
-22.4 137.1 1771
21.1 139.3 1408
7.7 126.8 1527
-8.3 107.8 2003
56.7 171.3 1386
59 164.5 1089
69 177.2 1384
70.9 161.4 1030
73 163 1092
59.7 170.1 1161
61.9 174.3 1415
63.7 173.9 1231
5.6 79.1 2300
18.2 77.4 2238
85.7 139.8 1038
105.1 132 1332
-101.6 10.7 3510
-145.2 28 3490
-74 88 2594
-94.5 86.6 2650
-88.8 76.7 2533
-120.3 80.8 3571
-86 54.4 2811
-72.8 43.1 2728
-100.2 42.9 3136
-78.8 40.8 2553
-83.7 46.5 2798
-95.6 35.8 2691
-87.6 29.4 2946
Index
A 19,53,297,
170,174,179, iron ore (Page 95)
analysis of variance 279,295,312
235,334 organics 5,92,286
anisotropy 192,215,248 samples (data set) 4,327
areas 295 5,23,62,88,
auxiliary functions 308 scallops
162,201,333
B velvetlf 6,88,329
bar chart 12 4,21,59,200,
blocks 302 wolfcamp 232,249,281,
box plot 11 313,318
C 41,50,
degrees of freedom
CD 6 151,287
Central Limit Theorem 50 discrete data 14
clustered sampling 192 discretisation 298
coefficient of variation 13,67 distribution
confidence interval Bernoulli 104
193,251,265, Binomial 104
for estimates Compound Poisson 113
274,307
for mean 44,49 Exponential 111
standard deviation 41,50 Gaussian 31
on regression 156 Geometric 109
correlation coefficient 151,165 67,215,
lognormal
150,207,257, 304,323
covariance mixed Poisson 123
270,276
Cressie 223,271 Negative Binomial 109
cross validation 284 Normal 31,287
cross cross validation 290 Poisson 112
cutoff 45 Snedecor’s 138
Student’s 44
D distributions
data, ordered 34,165 test for fit of 140
data sets: discrete 103
4,16,50,147, mixtures of 86
coal 156,168,228, distribution free 164,333
248,277
E
copper 4 estimate unknown value 190
dioxin 5 estimate, mean 37,73
gasa 4,75,159 estimate, standard deviation 41
4,94,144,167, estimation error 153,209
geevor estimation variance 265,269
290,302,322
Index
F matrices 275
Finney 69 maximum likelihood 76
G mean 8,32,73
geometric mean 9,72 median 8,32,73
45,80,295, Merks 224
grade/tonnage curves Mine Call factor 168,301
301
Griffith 117 mode 8,32,73
H N
histogram (not) 12 natural logarithms 72
homogeneous 186 nearest neighbour 233
honour data 192 non-parametric 164,333
hypothesis testing 135 nugget effect 224,270,281
I O
independent 15,31 objective 1
inference 14 open pit 295
inverse distance 190,208,247 open cast 295
J P
jack-knifing 285 panels 302
Journel 329 pay limit 80
pay value 81
K payability 84
Krige 141,295 population 14,49
kriging predicting a value 152
direct 306 probability density function 31
indicator 329 probability distribution 31
lognormal 320 probability paper 34
ordinary 272,274,315 proportonal effect 320
rank uniform 333
simple 269,271,315 R
universal 315 random 15,31
kurtosis 13,33 range 9
range, interquartile 9
L rank transform 164,215
lagrangian multiplier 273,318 143,195,
least squares 77,224 regression effect
296,306
location of sample 188 relationships 147,210
logarithmic transform 70 Rendu 80
lower tail 32 representative 14,31,185
M reproducible 14,31,185
mapping methods 188 153,239,
residual
213,267,272, 281,314
Matheron risk 50
295,317
Index
S
sample data 7 single sample 135
scatter plot 147 standard deviations 138
scattergram 147 two sample 137
selection calculations 45,82 176,235,281,
semi-variogram trend surface
314,315,334
experimental 212,248,295
U
model 216,248,295
unbiassed 154,269
relative 322
uniform transform 164
sensitivity 285
upper tail 32
Sichel 71,118
skewness 13,33,69,320 V
software 6 variance 10,75
standard deviation 11,32 variogram 213
standard error 269 variance, between block 298
stope 295 variance, within block 298
study area 2 volume/variance 296
support 295 W
T 188,207,247,
weighted average
test(s) 264,272
chi-squared 2 142,223 weights, negative 268
correlation 151 weights, optimal 264
means 137
Practical Geostatistics was written by Isobel Clark and
published in 1979 by Elsevier Applied Science when
few books were available to assist a teacher of geostatistics.
“It is obviously written by an experienced teacher who well knows the value of worked
examples and self-teaching exercises” British Book News, 1980
“La présentation est claire, succinte, les développements mathématiques sont réduits à leur
strict minimum. L’ouvrage s’adresse à un public non spécialisé.” Annales de la Société
Géologique de Belgique, 1982
“Some readers may find the text rather too chatty............” Bulletin of the Institute of
Mathematics and its Applications 1981
This is that future book. Jointly authored by Isobel Clark and Bill Harper, Practical
Geostatistics 2000 shows how the kriging techniques of geostatistics evolve logically
from basic statistical concepts and interpolation methods such as trend surface analysis
and inverse distance weighting.
This book is not intended for specialist mathematicians or statisticians, but for those
students and professionals to whom geostatistics is one useful tool on the workbench.
Our proposed audience includes anyone who needs to produce estimates or predictions of
quantitative values at locations where samples have not been or cannot be taken.
No prior knowledge of statistics is assumed, although the reader needs to be comfortable
with basic algebra and a little calculus. It helps if you know how to solve small sets of
simultaneous equations. All chapters include fully worked examples. Most include a list
of exercises for the reader to practice on. A separate volume of answers to the exercises
is also available. Data sets are listed and can be downloaded — along with the software —
from the Web.
c