MAD

α
Quarter Demand 0.157862 Absolute Error
1 180 175 5
2 168 175.7893 7.789309
3 159 174.5597 15.55968
4 175 172.1034 2.896602
5 190 172.5607 17.43934
6 205 175.3137 29.68634
7 180 180 1.074E-08
8 182 180 2
Forecast. 9 ? 180.3157 10.04641

MSE
α
Quarter Demand 0.155898 Sqaured Error
1 180 175 25
2 168 175.7795 60.52049
3 159 174.5667 242.3216
4 175 172.1399 8.180393
5 190 172.5858 303.256
6 205 175.3006 882.0541
7 180 179.9307 0.004804
8 182 179.9415 4.237433
Forecast. 9 ? 180.2624 190.6968

MAPE
α
Quarter Demand 0.157862 Absolute Error/Actual
1 180 175 0.027778
2 168 175.7893 0.046365
3 159 174.5597 0.09786
4 175 172.1034 0.016552
5 190 172.5607 0.091786
6 205 175.3137 0.144811
7 180 180 1.714E-09
8 182 180 0.010989
Forecast. 9 ? 180.3157 0.054518
 α 0.2 β 0.4
Trendless Smoothed Smoothed
Actual Smoothed
Month Smoothed Forecast Including
Demand
Average Average, Ft
Trend, Tt
Trend, FITt Ch
1 12 11 11 2 13 40
35
2 17 11.2 12.8 1.92 14.72
30
3 20 12.36 15.176 2.1024 17.2784
25
4 19 13.888 17.82272 2.320128 20.142848
20
5 24 14.9104 19.9142784 2.2287002 22.14297856 15
6 21 16.72832 22.5143828 2.3772619 24.89164472 10
7 31 17.582656 24.1133158 2.0659303 26.17924608 5
8 28 20.2661248 27.1433969 2.4515906 29.59498747 0
0 2 4
9 36 21.8128998 29.27599 2.3239916 31.59998159
10 24.6503199 32.4799853 2.6759931 35.15597836 Actual Demand
Smoothed Forecast Averag
Smoothed Including Trend,

Period Period (x) Demand (y) Forecast (y) error (y-ŷ)

2001 1 74 67.25 6.75
Chart Title
2002 2 79 77.7857143 1.2142857 160
2003 3 80 88.3214286 -8.3214286 140
2004 4 90 98.8571429 -8.8571429 120
2005 5 105 109.392857 -4.3928571 100
2006 6 142 119.928571 22.071429
80
2007 7 122 130.464286 -8.4642857
60
2008 8 141
40

Intercept 56.71429 56.7142857 20

Slope (tren 10.53571 10.5357143 0
0 1 2 3 4 5

Least Squre Fitting (Assume Linear Regression) Demand (y) Forecas

y=intercept+slope(x)
 Chart Title

2 4 6 8 10 12

Actual Demand Trendless Smoothed Average

Smoothed Forecast Average, Ft Smoothed Trend, Tt
Smoothed Including Trend, FITt

Chart Title

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Demand (y) Forecast (y)

 Avg of Avgs 94 DeseasonalTrended
Period Time (x) Demand (y) Average Ratio Smoohted Unadjusted (ŷ)
Year 1_Jan 1 80 90 0.957446809 83.55556 85.859976967352
Year 1_Feb 2 70 80 0.85106383 82.25 86.3251211406462
Year 1_Mar 3 80 85 0.904255319 88.47059 86.7902653139404
Year 1_Apr 4 90 100 1.063829787 84.6 87.2554094872345
Year 1_May 5 113 123 1.308510638 86.35772 87.7205536605287
Year 1_Jun 6 110 115 1.223404255 89.91304 88.1856978338229
Year 1_Jul 7 100 105 1.117021277 89.52381 88.6508420071171
Year 1_Aug 8 88 100 1.063829787 82.72 89.1159861804112
Year 1_Sept 9 85 90 0.957446809 88.77778 89.5811303537054
Year 1_Oct 10 77 80 0.85106383 90.475 90.0462745269996
Year 1_Nov 11 75 80 0.85106383 88.125 90.5114187002937
Year 1_Dec 12 82 80 0.85106383 96.35 90.9765628735879
Year 2_Jan 13 85 0.957446809 88.77778 91.4417070468821
Year 2_Feb 14 85 0.85106383 99.875 91.9068512201762
Year 2_Mar 15 93 0.904255319 102.8471 92.3719953934704
Year 2_Apr 16 95 1.063829787 89.3 92.8371395667646
Year 2_May 17 125 1.308510638 95.52846 93.3022837400587
Year 2_Jun 18 115 1.223404255 94 93.7674279133529
Year 2_Jul 19 102 1.117021277 91.31429 94.2325720866471
Year 2_Aug 20 102 1.063829787 95.88 94.6977162599413
Year 2_Sept 21 90 0.957446809 94 95.1628604332354
Year 2_Oct 22 78 0.85106383 91.65 95.6280046065296
Year 2_Nov 23 82 0.85106383 96.35 96.0931487798238
Year 2_Dec 24 78 0.85106383 91.65 96.5582929531179
Year 3_Jan 25 105 0.957446809 109.6667 97.0234371264121
Year 3_Feb 26 85 0.85106383 99.875 97.4885812997063
Year 3_Mar 27 82 0.904255319 90.68235 97.9537254730004
Year 3_Apr 28 115 1.063829787 108.1 98.4188696462946
Year 3_May 29 131 1.308510638 100.1138 98.8840138195888
Year 3_Jun 30 120 1.223404255 98.08696 99.3491579928829
Year 3_Jul 31 113 1.117021277 101.1619 99.8143021661771
Year 3_Aug 32 110 1.063829787 103.4 100.279446339471
Year 3_Sept 33 95 0.957446809 99.22222 100.744590512765
Year 3_Oct 34 85 0.85106383 99.875 101.20973468606
Year 3_Nov 35 83 0.85106383 97.525 101.674878859354
Year 3_Dec 36 80 0.85106383 94 102.140023032648
Year 4_Jan 37 0.957446809 102.605167205942
Year 4_Feb 38 0.85106383 103.070311379236
Year 4_Mar 39 0.904255319 103.53545555253
Year 4_Apr 40 1.063829787 104.000599725825
Year 4_May 41 1.308510638 104.465743899119
Year 4_Jun 42 1.223404255 104.930888072413
Year 4_Jul 43 1.117021277 105.396032245707
Year 4_Aug 44 1.063829787 105.861176419001
Year 4_Sept 45 0.957446809 106.326320592295
Year 4_Oct 46 0.85106383 106.79146476559
Year 4_Nov 47 0.85106383 107.256608938884
Year 4_Dec 48 0.85106383 107.721753112178
Intercept 85.39483
Slope 0.465144
Seasonalized
Adjusted
82.2063609262
73.4681882048
Chart Title
78.4805590605 160
92.8249037098 140
114.783277662 120
107.886757988 100
99.0248767101 80
94.8042406175 60
85.7691673599 40
76.635127257 20
77.0309946385 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
77.4268620201
87.5505705768 Column C Column D Column E
78.2185967831 Column F Column G Column H
83.5278681749
98.7629144327
122.087030851
114.71547032
105.259787969
100.74225134
91.1133770105
81.3855358353
81.7814032169
82.1772705984
92.8947802274
82.9690053615
88.5751772894
104.700925156
129.390784041
121.544182651
111.494699228
106.680262063
96.4575866612
86.1359444137
86.5318117952
86.9276791767
98.238989878
87.7194139398
93.6224864039
110.638935879
136.69453723
128.372894982
117.729610487
112.618272786
101.801796312
90.886352992
91.2822203735
91.678087755
60