Risk Management
Risk Management
INTRODUCTION
Effective corporate governance cannot be attained without the organization mastering the art of risk management. And risk
management is recognized as one of the most important competencies needed by the board of directors of modern organization,
large as well as small and medium sized business firm.
The levels of risk faced by business firms have increased because of the fast-growing sophistication of organization, globalization,
modern technology and impact of corporate scandals. In addition therefore compliance with legal requirements, top management
should consider adequate knowledge of risk management.
Risk management is the process of measuring or assessing risk and developing strategies to manage it. Risk management is a
systematic approach of identifying, analyzing and controlling areas or events with a potential for causing unwanted change. Risk
management is the act or practice of controlling risk. It includes risk planning, assessing risk areas, developing risk handling options,
monitoring risks to determine how risks have changed and documenting overall risk management program.
As defined in the International Organization of Standardization (ISO 31000), Risk Management is the identification, assessment, and
prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize monitor and control the
probability and/or impact of unfortunate events and to maximize the realization of opportunities.
It is through risk management that risks to any specific program are assessed and systemically managed to reduce risk to an
acceptable level. Risks can come from uncertainty in financial markets, project failures, legal liabilities, credit risks accidents, natural
causes and disasters as well as deliberate attack from adversary or events of uncertain or unpredictable root-cause.
The International Organization of Standardization (ISO) identifies the basic principles of risk management.
According to Standard ISO 31000 “Risk management - Principles and Guidelines on Implementation,” the process of risk
management consists of several steps as follows:
2. Identification of potential risks. Risk identification can start with analysis of the source of the problem or with the analysis of
the problem itself. Common risk identification methods are:
a. Objective-based risk
b. Scenario-based risk
c. Taxonomy-based risk
d. Common-risk checking
e. Risk charting
3. Risk assessment. Once risks have been identified, their potential severity of impact and probability of occurrence must be
assessed. The assessment process is critical to make the best educated decisions in prioritizing the implementation of the risk
management plan.
In practice, the process of assessing overall risks can be difficult and balancing resources to mitigate between risks and with
high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high loss but lower probability of occurrence can often be
mishandled. Ideal risk management should minimize spending of manpower or other resources at the same time minimizing
the negative effect of risks.
For the most part, the performance of assessment methods should consist of the following elements:
1. identification, characterization, and assessment of threats
2. assessment of the vulnerability of critical assets to specific threats
3. determination of the risk (i.e. the expected likelihood and consequences of specific types of attacks on specific assets)
4. identification of ways to reduce those risks
5. prioritization of risk reduction measures based on strategy.
Although a single risk premium must compensate the investor for all the uncertainty associated with the investment, numerous
factors may contribute to investment uncertainty. The factors usually considered with respect to investment are
• Business risk
• Financial risk
• Liquidity risk
• Default risk
• Interest rate risk
• Management risk
• Purchasing power risk
BUSINESS RISK
Business risk refers to the uncertainty about the rate of return caused by the nature of the business. The most frequently
discussed causes of business risk are uncertainty about the firm’s sales and operating expenses. Clearly, the firm’s sales are not
guaranteed and will fluctuate as the economy fluctuates or the nature of the industry changes. A firm’s income is also related
to its operating expenses. If all operating expenses are variable, then sales volatility will be passed directly to operating income.
Most firms, however, have some fixed operating expenses (for example, depreciation, rent, salaries). These fixed expenses
cause the operating income to be more volatile than sales. Business risk is related to sales volatility as well as the operating
leverage f the firm caused by fixed operating expenses.
DEFAULT RISK
Default risk is related to the probability that some or all of the initial investment will not returned. The degree of default risk is
closely related to the financial condition of the company issuing the security and the security’s rank in claims on assets in the
event of default or bankruptcy. For example, if a bankruptcy occurs, creditors, including bondholders have a claim on assets
prior to the claim of ordinary equity shareholders.
FINANCIAL RISK
The firm’s capital structure or sources of financing determine financial risk. If the firm is all equity financed, then any variability
in operating income passed directly to net income on equal percentage basis. If the firm is partially financed by debt that
requires fixed interest payments or by preferred share that requires fixed preferred dividend payments, then these fixed
charges introduce financial leverage. This leverage causes net income to vary more than operating income. The introduction of
financial leverage causes the firm’s lenders and its stockholders to view their income streams as having additional uncertainty.
As a result financial leverage, both investment groups, would increase the risk premiums that they require for investing in the
firm.
LIQUIDITY RISK
Liquidity risk is associated with the uncertainty created by the inability to sell investment quickly for cash. An investor assumes
that the investment can be sold at the expected price when future consumption is planned. As the investor considers the sale
of the investment, he or she faces two uncertainties: (1) What price will be received? (2) How long it will take to sell the
assets? An example of an illiquid asset is a house in a market with an abundance of homes relative to the number of potential
buyers. This investment may not sell for several months or even years. Of course, if the price is reduced sufficiently, the real
estate will sell, but the investor must make a selling price concession in order for the transaction to occur.
In contrast, a government Treasury bill can be sold almost immediately with very little concession on selling price. Such an
investment can be converted to cash almost at will and for a price very close to the price the investor expected.
The liquidity risk for ordinary equity shares is more complex. Because they are traded on organized and active markets,
ordinary equity shares can be sold quickly. Some ordinary equity shares, however, have greater liquidity risk than others due to
a thin market. The thin market results in a large price spread (the difference between the bid price buyers are willing to pay and
the ask price sellers are willing to accept). A large spread increases the cost of trading to the investor and thus represents
liquidity risk. Investors considering the purchases of illiquid investments – ones that have no ready market or require price
concessions – will demand a rate of return that compensates for the liquidity risk.
MANAGEMENT RISK
Decisions made by a firm’s management and BODs materially affect the risk faced by investors. Areas affected by these
decisions range from product innovation and production methods (business risk) and financing (financial risk) to acquisitions.
For example, acquisition or acquisition-defense decisions made by the management of such firms materially affected the risk of
the holders of their companies’ securities.
A. Market Risk
• Product Risk
o Complexity
o Obsolescence
o Research and Development
o Packaging
o Delivery of Warranties
• Competitor Risk
o Pricing Strategy
o Market Share
o Market Strategy
B. Operation Risk
• Process Stoppage
• Health and Safety
• After Sales Service Failure
• Environmental
• Technological Obsolescence
• Integrity
o Management Fraud
o Employee Fraud
o Illegal Acts
C. Financial Risk
• Interest Volatility
• Foreign Currency
• Liquidity
• Derivative
• Viability
D. Business Risk
• Regulatory Change
• Reputation
• Political
• Regulatory and Legal
• Shareholder Relation
• Credit Rating
• Capital Availability
• Business Interruption
ISO 3100 also suggests that once risks have been identified and assessed, techniques to manage the risks should be applied. These
techniques can fall into one or more of these categories:
• Avoidance
• Reduction
• Sharing
• Retention
1. Risk Avoidance
This includes performing an activity that could carry risk. An example would be not buying a property or business in order not
to take on the legal liability that comes with it. Avoiding risks, however, also means losing out on the potential gain that
accepting (retaining) the risk may have allowed. Not entering a business to avoid the risk of loss also avoids the possibility of
earning profits.
2. Risk Reduction
Risk reduction or optimization involves reducing the severity of the loss or the likelihood of the loss from occurring. Optimizing
risks means finding a balance between the negative risks and benefit of the operation or activity; and between risk reduction
and effort applied. Outsourcing could be an example of risk reduction if the outsourcer can demonstrate higher capability of
managing or reducing risks.
3. Risk Sharing
Risk sharing means sharing with another party the burden of loss or the benefit of gain, from a risk, and the measures to reduce
a risk.
4. Risk Retention
Risk retention involves accepting the loss or benefit a gain from a risk when it occurs. Self Insurance falls in this category. All
risks that not avoided are transferred or retained by default. Also, any amount of potential loss over amount insured is retained
risk. This is acceptable if the Chance of a very large loss is small or if the cost to insure for greater coverage involves a
substantial amount that could hinder the goals of the organization.
As applied to corporate finance, risk management is the technique for measuring monitoring and controlling and financial or
operational risk on a firm’s balance sheet.
The Basel II framework breaks risks into market risk (price risk) credit risk and operational risk and also specifies methods for
calculating capital requirements for each of these components.
Oversight Activities:
Define goals and objectives, roles and Set management policy, establish context, set
responsibilities, common language and oversight limits and tolerance, etc.
Step 2: Develop/Design Action Plans: Ensure that all available tools and
Reduce, avoid, retain, transfer, exploit methodologies are used
SEC Code of Governance Recommendations 2.11 and corresponding explanation provide the following:
“The Board should oversee that a sound enterprise risk management (ERM) framework is in place to effectively
identify, monitor, assess and manage key business risks. The risk management framework should guide the Board
in identifying units/business lines and enterprise-level risk exposures, as well as the effectiveness of risk
management strategies.
Risk management policy is part and parcel of a corporation’s corporate strategy. The Board is responsible for
defining the company’s level of risk tolerance and providing oversight over its risk management policies and
procedures.”
Principle 12 which deals with strengthening The Internal Control System and Enterprise Risk Management Framework states that
“To ensure the integrity, transparency and proper governance in the conduct of its affairs, the company should
have a strong and effective internal control system and enterprise risk management framework.”
The Board should oversee that sound enterprise risk management (ERM) framework is in place effectively identify, monitor,
assess and manage key business risks. The risk management framework should guide the Board in identifying units/business lines
and enterprise-level risk exposures, as well as the effectiveness of risk management strategies.
Subject to a corporation’s size, risk profile and complexity of operations, the Board should establish a separate Board Risk Oversight
Committee (BROC) that should be responsible for the oversight of company’s Enterprise Risk Management system to ensure its
functionality and effectiveness. The BROC should be composed of at least three members, the majority of whom should be
independent directors, including the Chairman. The Chairman should not be the Chairman of the Board or any other committee. At
least one member of the committee must have relevant thorough knowledge and experience on risk and risk management.
Subject to its size, risk profile and complexity of operations, the company should have separate risk management function to
identify, assess and monitor key risk exposures.
To enhance management’s competence in their oversight role on risk management the following steps may be followed:
• The risk organizational structure should include formal charters, levels of authorization reporting lines and job description.
Practical Guidelines in Managing and Reducing Enterprise-wide Risk inherent in business activity is best achieved by applying the
principles and techniques appropriate to the situation.
The willingness and readiness to take personal and financial risks is a defining characteristic of the entrepreneurial decision-maker.
In late 90’s, a study commissioned by an internationally-known accounting firm found that while in commissioned by an
internationally-known accounting firm found that while in continental Europe strategies focus on avoiding and hedging risk, Anglo-
American companies view risk as an opportunity and accept risk management as necessary to achieving their goals. In 2017, this
relative attitude to risk among European and US companies remain broadly the same, the result of long-standing cultural
experiences and history as well as recent events.
Successful businessmen and decision-makers make sure that the risks resulting from their decisions are measured, understood and
as far as possible eliminated. They also go beyond the direct financial perspective and actively manage risk as it affects the whole
organization.
Accepting that risks exist is a starting point for the other actions needed, but the most important is to create the right climate for risk
management. People need to understand why control systems are needed: this requires communication and leadership skills so
that standards and expectation are set and clearly understood.
Identification of significant risks both within and outside the organization is crucial and allows to make informed decisions. This
makes it easier to avoid unnecessary surprises. Example of significant risks might be the loss of a major customer, the failure of a
key supplier or the appearance of a significant competitor.
Consider the human factor into account. People behave differently and inconsistently when making decisions involving risk. They
may exuberant or diffident, over confident or overly concerned. They simply overlook the issue of risk.
Risk surrounds and continues to be with us. A former British prime minister once said “To be alive at all involves some risks.” When
identifying risks it helps to define the categories into which they fall. This allows for a more structured analysis and reduces the
chances of a risk being overlooked. Some of the most common areas of risk affecting business are shown in Table 12.1
As earlier mentioned, the usual first step is to determine the nature and extent of the risks the business will accept. This involves
assessing the likelihood of risks becoming reality and the effect they would have if they did. Only when this is understood can
measures be taken to minimize the incidence and impact of such risks.
There is also an opportunity cost associated with risk; avoiding a risk may mean avoiding a potentially big opportunity. People can
be too cautious and risk averse even though they are often at their best when facing the pressure of risk deciding to take a more
audacious approach. Sometimes the greatest risk is to do nothing.
Once risks are identified they can be rank according to their potential impact and the likelihood of them occurring. This helps to
highlight not only where things might go wrong and what their impact would be, but also how, why and where these catalysts might
be triggered. The five most significant types of risk catalysts are as follows:
• Technology.
New hardware, software or system configurations can trigger risks, as can new demands or existing information systems
an technology. In early 2010, Metro Manila Development Authority Chair introduced a congestion change for traffic using
the center of the city; the greatest threat to the scheme’s success (and his tenure as chair) was posed by the used of new
technology. It worked and the scheme was widely seen as a success.
• Organizational Change.
Risks are triggered by, for example, new management structures or reporting lines, new strategies and commercial
agreements (including mergers, agency or distribution agreements).
• Processes.
New products, markets and acquisitions all cause change and can trigger risks. The disastrous launch of “New Coke” by
Coca-Cola was an even bigger risk that anyone at the company had realized, it outraged American who felt angry that the
iconic US product was being changed. The Coca-Cola eventually turned the situation to its advantage shows that risk can
managed and controlled, but such success is rare.
• People.
Hiring new employees, losing key people, poor succession planning, or weak people management can all create
dislocation, but the main danger is behavior: everything from laziness to fraud, exhaustion and simple human error can
trigger this risk.
• External Factors.
Changes to regulation and political, economic or social developments can all affect strategic decisions by bringing to the
surface risks that may have lain hidden. The economic disruption caused by the sudden spread of the SARS epidemic from
China to the rest of Asia in 2003 highlight this risk.
The stages of managing the enterprise-wide risk inherent in decisions are simple.
• First, assess and analyze the risks resulting from a decision by systematically identifying and quantifying them.
• Third, in parallel with the second stage, take action to manage control and monitor the risks.
It is more difficult to assess the risks inherent in a business decision than to identify them. Risks that lead to frequent losses,
such as an increasing incidence of employee-related problems or difficulties with suppliers, can often be solved using past
experience. Unusual or infrequent losses are harder to qualify Risks with little likelihood of occurring in the next five years
are not important to a company focused on meeting shareholders’ shorter-term expectations. Thus, it is sensible to quantify
the potential consequences of identified risks and then define courses of action to remove or mitigate them.
Each category of risk can be mapped in terms of both likely frequency and potential impact, with the potential consequences
being ranked on scale ranging from inconvenient to catastrophic. (see Figure 12.1)
Risk should be actively managed and given a high priority across the whole organization. Risk Management procedures and
techniques should be well documented, clearly communicated, regularly reviewed and monitored. To successfully manage
risks, you have to know what they are, what factors affect them and their potential impact.
If you plot the ability to control a risk against its potential impact, as shows in Figure12.1, you can decide on actions either to
exercise greater control over the risk or to mitigate its potential impact. Risk falling into the top-right require urgent action,
but those in the bottom-right quadrant (total/significant control, major/critical impact should not be ignored because
complacency, mistakes and a lack of control can turn the risk into a reality.
No Control
Weak Control
Significant Control
Total Control
Minor Significant Major Critical
POTENTIAL IMPACT
Once the inherent risks in a decision are understood, the priority is to exercise control. All employees must be aware that
unnecessary risk-taking is unacceptable. They should understand that what the risks are, where they lie and their role in
controlling them To achieve this, share information, prepare and communicate clear guidelines, and establish control
procedures and risk measurement systems.
Start by reducing or eliminating those risks that result only in costs: the non-training risks. These can be thought of a the fixed
costs of risk and might include property damage risks, legal and contractual liabilities and business interruption risks. Reducing
these risks can be achieved through quality assurance programs, environmental control processes, enforcing health and safety
regulation, installing accident prevention and emergency equipment and training people to use it, and taking security measures
to prevent crime, sabotage, espionage, and threats to people and systems. Reducing a risk may also mean that the cost of
insuring it goes down.
Risks can be reduced or mitigated by sharing them. For example, acceptable agreements from vendors are essential to reducing
risk, Joint ventures, licensing and agency agreements can be also be used to mitigate risk. To reduce the chances of things going
wrong, focus on the quality of what people do – doing the right things right reduces risks and costs.
Risk management relies on accurate, timely information. Management information systems should provide details of the likely
areas of risk, and the information needed to control the risks. The information must reach the right people at the right time so
that they can investigate and take corrective action.
Recognizing the need to management risk is not enough. The ethos of an organization should recognize and reward behavior
that manages risk. This requires a commitment by senior managers and the resources (including training) to match. Too often,
control systems are seen only as an additional overhead and not as something that can add value by ensuring the effective use of
assets, the avoidance of waste and the success of key decisions.
Everyone accepts that taking risk is needed to keep ahead of the competition. Consequently, employees need to understand
better what the risks are, to share responsibility for the risks being taken and to see as an opportunity, not a threat.
Understanding how organizations manage risk effectively it is important, but managing risk is only one possible strategy.
Another approach is to look for ways to use the risk to achieve success by adding value or outstripping competitors - or both. To
do this, organization need to stop taking the fun out of risk by controlling it in ways that are perceived as bureaucratic and
stifling. Risk is both desirable and necessary. It provides opportunities to learn and develop and compels people to improve and
effectively meet the challenge of change.
The following questions when answered truthfully and positively will assist managers in deciding how to manage the risks that
confront the business enterprise.
• Where are the greatest areas of risk relating to the most significant strategic decisions?
• What level of risk is acceptable for the company to bear?
• What are the potentially, disclosing events that could inflict the greatest damage on your organization?
• What is the overall level of exposure to risk? Has this been assessed and is it being actively monitored?
• What are the cost and benefits of operating effective risk management controls?
• What review procedures are in place to monitor risks?
• Do employees resent risk, or are they encouraged to view certain risks as opportunities?
Finance is the lifeblood of a business, heavily influencing strategies and decisions at every level.
Managers find it difficult to get to grips with financial issues and, as the 2008 global financial crisis revealed, many lost touch with
basic financial ground rules.
Profitability, cash flow, long-term shareholders value and risk all need to be considered when setting and reviewing strategy. This
section provides practical guidance about financial decisions and explains how to:
1. improve profitability
2. avoid pitfalls in making financial decisions;
3. reduce financial risk.
• Improving Profitability
Entrepreneurial flair and financial rigour are much about attitude as skill. Nonetheless, certain skill will ensure are focused on
commercial success.
A. Variance Analysis
Interpreting the differences between actual and planned performance is crucial. Variance analysis is used to monitor and
manage the results of past decisions, assess the current situation and highlight solutions.
Common causes of variances include inefficiency, poor or flawed planning (for example, relying on historically inaccurate
information), poor communication, interdependence between departments and random factors. Every business should use
variance analysis but in a practical and pragmatic and cost-effective way.
Other barriers include capital requirements, access to distribution channels, factors independent of scale (such as technology or
location) and regulatory requirements. When markets are difficult or costly for competitors to enter and relatively easy and
affordable to leave, firms can achieve high, stable returns, while still being able to leave for other opportunities. Consider
where the barriers to entry lie for your market sector, how vulnerable you are to new entrants, and whether you can
strengthen and entrench your market position.
C. Break-Even Analysis
The break- even point is when sales cover costs, where neither a profit nor a loss is made. It is calculated by dividing the costs
of the project by the gross profit at specific dates, making sure to allow for overhead costs. Break-even analysis (cost-volume-
profit or CVP analysis) is used to decide whether to continue developing a product, alter the price, provide or adjust a discount,
or change suppliers to reduce costs. It is also helps in managing the sales mix, cost structure and production capacity, as well as
in forecasting and budgeting.
D. Controlling Costs
To control costs:
• Focus on the big items of expenditures - Categories cost into major or peripheral items. Often, undue emphasis is given to
the 80% of activities accounting for 20% of costs.
• Be cost aware - Casualness is the enemy of cost control. While focusing on major items of expenditure it may also be
possible to cut cost of peripheral items. Costs can be reduced over the medium to long term by managers’ attitudes to cost
control and the effects of expenses on cash flow.
• Maintain a balance between cost and quality - Getting the best value means achieving a balance between the price paid
and the quality received.
• Use budgets for dynamic financial management - Budge early so financial requirements are known as soon as possible.
Consider the best time-period for the budget – normally a year but it to rolling budgets, getting managers to forecast the
next 18 months every quarter. Budgets provide a starting point for cash flow forecasts and revenue, and they also play an
essential role in monitoring costs and revenues.
• Develop a positive aṄtude to budgeting - People need to understand, accept and use the budget, feeling sense of
ownership and responsibility for developing, monitoring and controlling it.
• Eliminate waste - Japanese companies have directed much of their cost-management efforts towards waste elimination.
They achieve this by using techniques such as process analysis, mapping and re-engineering.
• Focus decision-making on the most profitable areas. Concentrating on products and services with the best margin will
protect or enhance profitability. This might involve redirecting sales and advertising activities.
• Decide how to treat the least profitable products. This often drift, with dwindling profitability. Turn around a poor performer
(by reducing costs, raising prices, altering discount or changing the product) or abandon it to prevent drain on resources
and reputation. The shelf-life and appeal of product must be considered when deciding to continue or discontinue it.
• Make sure new products enhance overall profitability. New product development often focuses on market need or the
production process, with insufficient regard to cost, price, sales volume and overall profitability, which are inextricably
linked.
• Manage development and production decisions. The amount spent on research, as well as priorities and methods used,
affect profitability. Too little expenditure may increase costs in the long-term
• Set the buying policy. For example, should there be a small number of preferred suppliers or a bidding system among a
wider number of potential supplier? Also, consider techniques for controlling delivery charges, monitoring exchanges rates,
improving quality control, reducing inventory and improving production lead times.
• Consider how to create greater value from existing customers and products to enhance profitability.
Ask:
➢ How can customer loyalty (and repeat purchasing) be enhanced?
➢ How can the sales proposition be made more competitive relative to the opposition?
➢ How can existing markets, sales channels, products, brand reputation and other resources be adapted to exploit new
markets and new opportunities?
➢ How can sales expenses be reduced?
➢ How can effectiveness of marketing activities be increased?
• Consider how to increase profitability by managing people. Successful leadership is prerequisite for profitability. People
need to be motivated and supported, and this implies rewarding them fairly for their work, training and developing them,
providing clear sense of direction, and focusing on the needs of the team, the task and the individual.
There are many techniques for assessing the likely profitability of an investment. One of the most used is to apply discounted cash
flows in evaluating capital investment programs.
• Avoiding PiValls
Many manager needs have financial responsibilities and their decisions will often be influenced by or have an
impact on other parts of the business. The following principles will help avoid flawed financial decision-making.
Reduce Financial Risk Positive replies to the following questions would assist top management to manage
financial risk:
o Are the most effective and relevant performance measures in place to monitor and assess the effectiveness of financial
decisions?
o Have analyzed key business ratios recently?
o Is there a positive attitude to budgets and budgeting?
o Does decision-making focus on the most profitable products and services, or is it preoccupied with peripheral issues?
o What are the least profitable parts of the organizations? How will they improved?
o Are market and customer decisions focused on improving profitability?
o How efficiently is cash managed?