PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS: STUDY GUIDE
1. Definition of Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. It ranges from 0 (impossible
event) to 1 (certain event).
If an event A occurs in "favorable outcomes" and the total number of equally likely outcomes is "n", then:
Number of favorable outcomes
P (A) =
Total number of outcomes
2. Approaches to Probability
a. Classical Approach
• Based on assumptions that all outcomes are equally likely.
• Formula: P (A) = m
n
• m = number of favorable outcomes
• n = total number of possible outcomes
• Example: Tossing a fair coin, getting heads = 1/2
b. Empirical (Statistical) Approach
• Based on actual experiments or historical data.
• Formula: P (A) = Number of times event A occurred
Total number of trials
• More useful when outcomes are not equally likely.
c. Axiomatic Approach
• Introduced by Kolmogorov. Based on set theory.
• A probability function P must satisfy:
• P (A) ≥ 0
• P (S) = 1 , where S is the sample space
• For disjoint events A and B (A \u2229 B = \u2205): P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
3. Addition Theorem of Probability
• For any two events A and B:
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
• If A and B are mutually exclusive:
1
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
Example: If P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, P(A \u2229 B) = 0.2
P (A ∪ B) = 0.4 + 0.5 − 0.2 = 0.7
4. Multiplication Theorem of Probability
• For any two events A and B:
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) ⋅ P (B∣A) = P (B) ⋅ P (A∣B)
• If A and B are independent:
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) ⋅ P (B)
Example: If P(A) = 0.6 and P(B|A) = 0.5,
P (A ∩ B) = 0.6 ⋅ 0.5 = 0.3
5. Bayes' Theorem (Inverse Probability)
Used to find the probability of an event occurring given the probability of another related event.
P (Ai ) ⋅ P (B∣Ai )
P (Ai ∣B) = n
∑j=1 P (Aj ) ⋅ P (B∣Aj )
• Useful in medical diagnosis, spam filtering, etc.
Example: Suppose a disease affects 1% of a population. A test detects the disease 99% of the time if
present, but gives a false positive 5% of the time. Calculate the probability that a person who tests positive
actually has the disease using Bayes' Theorem.
6. Properties of Probability (with Proofs)
1. P(A) \u2265 0 for any event A.
2. Proof: Probability is defined as a ratio of favorable outcomes; can never be negative.
3. P(S) = 1
4. Proof: The sample space S includes all possible outcomes. Since something must happen, P (S) =
n
n =1
2
5. If A and B are disjoint (mutually exclusive), then: P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
6. Proof: Since A \u2229 B = \u2205, then P (A ∩ B) = 0 , so by addition theorem: P (A ∪ B) =
P (A) + P (B)
7. P(A') = 1 - P(A)
8. Proof: A' is the complement of A. Since A and A' cover the sample space: P (A) + P (A′ ) =1⇒
′
P (A ) = 1 − P (A)
7. Examples
1. Classical Probability Example:
2. A die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a number less than 4?
3. Total outcomes = 6 (1 to 6), Favorable = 3 (1, 2, 3)
3
4. P = 6 = 0.5
5. Empirical Probability Example:
6. A coin was tossed 100 times and heads appeared 45 times.
45
7. P (Heads) = 100 = 0.45
8. Bayes' Theorem Example (Simple):
9. A bag contains 2 red and 3 blue balls. One ball is drawn and found to be red. What is the probability
it was drawn from Bag A (if there are multiple bags with different compositions)? (Detailed numerical
Bayes problems are often given.)
Let me know if you'd like me to add practice questions or a revision sheet for quick review!
