Problem Solving and Data Analysis (continue)

Survey, observational studies, and experiments

1. Survey and sampling method

- A sample provides information about a population without having to survey the entire group.
- A good sample is representative and random.
- We can draw conclusions about only the population from which the random sample was selected.
- For the question “largest population that can be generalized” ⇒ always choose the answer that consists of
the part after the phrase “selected from” in the question.

Question 1.
A random sample of 100 sample female teachers was selected from all the female teachers in a school district.
Each of the teachers selected was asked a survey question about an upcoming city ballot proposal. Of those
surveyed, 42% responded yes to the question. What is the largest population to which the results of the survey
can be generalized?
A.​ All adults in the city
B.​ All adults in the city who are female
C.​ All teachers in the school district
D.​ All teachers in the school district who are female

Question 2.
To determine the mean number of children per household in a community, Tabitha surveyed 20 families at a
playground. For the 20 families surveyed, the mean number of children per household is 2.4. Which of the
following statements must be true?
A.​ The mean number of children per household in the community is 2.4.
B.​ A determination about the mean number of children per household in the community should not be
made because the sample size is too small.
C.​ The sampling method is flawed and may produce a biased estimate of the mean number of children per
household in the community.
D.​ The sampling method is not flawed and is likely to produce an unbiased estimate of the mean number of
children per household in the community.

Question 3.
A researcher conducted a survey to determine whether people in a certain large town prefer watching sports on
television to attending the sporting event. The researcher asked 117 people who visited a local restaurant on a
Saturday, and 7 people refused to respond. Which of the following factors makes it least likely that a reliable
conclusion can be drawn about the sports-watching preferences of all people in the town?
A.​ Sample size
B.​ Population size
C.​ The number of people who refused to respond
D.​ Where the survey was given

Question 4.
The members of a city council wanted to assess the opinions of all city residents about converting an open field
into a dog park. The council surveyed a sample of 500 city residents who own dogs. The survey showed that the
majority of those sampled were in favor of the dog park. Which of the following is true about the city’s
council’s survey?
A.​ It shows that the majority of city residents are in favor of the dog park
 B.​ The survey sample should have included more residents who are dog owners.
C.​ The survey sample should have consisted entirely of residents who do not own dogs.
D.​ The survey sample is biased because it is not representative of all city residents.

Question 5.
At a large college, of the students working toward a degree in English, 250 were selected at random and asked
how many books on average they read each month. The results of this survey can be best generalized to which
of tire following populations?
A.​ All students at the same large college
B.​ Any sample of 250 students at the same large college
C.​ All students working toward a degree in English at any college
D.​ All students working toward a degree in English at the same large college

Question 6.
A survey was given to a random sample of 300 high school students in California. The results of this survey
should be representative of which of the following population?
A.​ All high school students in the United States
B.​ All high school students in California
C.​ All students in California
D.​ All students in the United States

Question 7.
Near the end of a US cable news show, the host invited viewers to respond to a poll on the show’s website that
asked, “Do you support the new federal policy discussed during the show?” At the end of the show, the host
reported that 28% responded “Yes,” and 70% responded “No.” Which of the following best explains why the
results are unlikely to represent the sentiments of the population of the United States?
A.​ The percentages do not add up to 100%, so any possible conclusions from the poll are invalid.
B.​ Those who responded to the poll were not a random sample of the population of the United States.
C.​ There were not 50% “Yes” responses and 50% “No” responses.
D.​ The show did not allow viewers enough time to respond to the poll.

Question 8.
In Spring 2014, three separate studies on the fitness level of tenth graders were conducted in the city of
Mistwick. In each study, every student in a group of tenth graders took the same fitness test and received a score
on it. The participants for the studies for the studies were selected as follows:
●​ For Study I, 100 tenth graders were selected at random from all tenth graders in Mistwick.
●​ For Study II, 200 tenth graders were selected at random from all tenth graders in Mistwick.
●​ For Study III, 300 tenth graders from Mistwick volunteered to participate.
●​ No tenth grader participated in more than one of the three studies
The results of which of the studies can appropriately be generalized to all tenth graders in Mistwick in Sprin
2015?
A.​ Study III only
B.​ Studies I and II only
C.​ Studies II and III only
D.​ Studies I, II, and III
Question 9.
A political scientist wants to predict how the residents of New Jersey will react to a new bill proposed in the
state senate. Which of the following study designs is most likely to provide reliable results for the political
scientists?
A.​ Mailing a questionnaire to each of 200 randomly selected residents of New Jersey.
B.​ Surveying a group of 300 randomly selected New Jersey residents.
C.​ Interviewing a group of students randomly selected from a large public university in New Jersey.
D.​ Surveying a group of 1,500 randomly selected US residents.

Question 10.
One hundred park-district members will be selected to participate in a survey about selecting a new park-district
coordinator. Which of the following methods of choosing the 100 members would result in a random sample of
members of the park district?
A.​ Obtain a numbered list of all park-district members. Use a random number generator to select 100
members from the list. Give the survey to those 100 members.
B.​ Obtain a list of all park-district members sorted alphabetically. Give the survey to the first 100 members
on the list.
C.​ Tell all park-district members that volunteers are needed to take the survey. Give the survey to the first
100 members who volunteer.
D.​ Obtain a list of all park-district members who are attending an upcoming event. Give the survey to the
first 100 members on the list.

2. Observational studies and experiments

- Observational studies vs. Controlled experiments
●​ Correlation means there is a relationship or pattern between the values of two variables.
●​ Causation means that one event causes another event to occur.
- A control group is needed to establish a causal relationship.
- A control group is a set of participants or subjects who do not receive the experimental treatment or
intervention being studied

Question 1.
To determine if age and gender are related to pet ownership at his school, Mark selected a random sample of 50
male 14- to 15-year-old students from the school and a random sample of 60 female 17- to 18-year-old students
from the school. For each student, he recorded the student’s age, gender, and whether the student owned a pet.
Which of the following provides the best explanation for why Mark cannot draw a valid conclusion from this
study?
A.​ The sample sizes are too small.
B.​ The two samples are not of equal size.
C.​ Mark will be unable to tell whether a difference in pet ownership is related to age because the two age
groups are two close in age.
D.​ Mark will be unable to tell whether a difference in pet ownership is related to gender because of the
difference in age. Similarly, he will be unable to tell whether a difference in pet ownership is related to age.
Question 2.
In a study of 24 adults and 8 adolescents, all participants took an 8-week mindfulness seminar. After the
seminar concluded, the participants reported improvement in stress-related symptoms. Based on the study,
which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion?
A.​ Participation in a mindfulness seminar improves stress-related symptoms but only in the participants of
this study.
B.​ Participation in a mindfulness seminar improves stress-related symptoms in all adults and adolescents.
C.​ Participation in a mindfulness seminar improves stress-related symptoms in adults but not in adolescents
because the sample size for adolescents is too small.
D.​ No conclusion can be drawn from the study about the causal relationship between participation in a
mindfulness seminar and stress-related symptoms because everyone in the study took the seminar.

Question 3.
A study was conducted to determine if a new treatment is successful in treating insomnia. 500 participants were
selected at random from a large population of people with insomnia. Half of the participants were randomly
assigned to receive the treatment, and the other half did not receive the treatment. The resulting data showed
that participants who received the treatment slept significantly better than those who did not. Based on the
design and results of the study, which of the following is an appropriate conclusion?
A.​ The new treatment is likely to improve the sleep of anyone who undergoes it.
B.​ The new treatment is better than all other available treatments in improving the sleep of people with
insomnia.
C.​ The treatment is likely to improve the sleep of people with insomnia.
D.​ None of the conclusions are appropriate.

Question 4.
To determine if cooking with olive oil reduces the risk of heartburn for men, researchers interviewed a random
sample of 5,500 men who had no history of heartburn. Study participants were identified as either regular or
occasional olive oil users. Five years later, researchers interviewed the men again. They found that the
proportion of men who experienced frequent heartburn was significantly lower for men identified as regular
olive oil users. Which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion of the study?
A.​ Olive oil use causes a reduction in the risk of heartburn for men and women.
B.​ Olive oil use causes a reduction in the risk of heartburn for men but not necessarily for women.
C.​ There is an association between olive oil use and the risk of heartburn for men and women, but it is not
necessarily a cause-and-effect relationship.
D.​ There is an association between olive oil use and the risk of heartburn for men, but it is not necessarily a
cause-and-effect relationship, and the association may not exist for women.

Question 5.
Researchers in Australia carried out an experiment to determine if the color of a coffee mug affects how people
rate the flavor intensity of the coffee.
Volunteers were randomly assigned to taste coffee in mugs that differed only by color, some white and some
clear. The same type of coffee was used in both mugs. The researchers concluded that the mean flavor intensity
rating was significantly higher for those who drank coffee in a white mug than for those who drank coffee in a
clear mug. Based on this study, which of the following statements is correct?
A.​ The color of the mug was the cause of the difference in mean intensity rating for these volunteers, and
this conclusion can be generalized to all coffee drinkers.
 B.​ The color of the mug was the cause of the difference in mean intensity rating for these volunteers, but it
is not reasonable to generalize this conclusion to all coffee drinkers.
C.​ It is not reasonable to conclude that the color of the mug was the cause of the difference in mean
intensity rating for these volunteers.
D.​ It is not possible to draw any conclusion from this experiment because volunteers were used.

Question 6.
For a study, a group of chipmunks will be selected from a habitat consisting of 220 chipmunks, and a group of
prairie dogs will be selected from a habitat consisting of 190 prairie dogs. Some of the chipmunks and prairie
dogs will be in a treatment group, and some of the chipmunks and prairie dogs will be in a control group. Which
of the following is necessary for this study to attempt to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between two
variables?
A.​ The number of chipmunks in the treatment group is equal to the number of prairie dogs in the treatment
group, and the number of chipmunks in the control group is equal to the number of prairie dogs in the
control group.
B.​ The chipmunks and the prairie dogs are randomly assigned to the treatment and control groups.
C.​ The chipmunks and the prairie dogs are randomly selected from their respective habitats.
D.​ The average age of the chipmunks in the treatment group is equal to the average age of the prairie dogs
in the treatment group, and the average age of the chipmunks in the control group is equal to the average
age of the prairie dogs in the control group.

Question 7.
The effectiveness of a mineral supplement in the soil on the growth of a particular species of plant is being
studied. A botanist planted 1,000 seeds in a greenhouse so that the growing conditions for all seeds would be as
identical as possible. The seeds were obtained from two 500-seed packages. The seeds from one package were
planted in soil that had the supplement added, and the seeds from the second package were planted in soil that
did not have the supplement added. How should the experiment be changed to allow the researcher to conclude
whether the supplement has an effect on plant growth?
A.​ One of the packages of seeds should be planted outdoors rather than in a greenhouse.
B.​ Half of the seeds from each package should be randomly assigned to each soil type.
C.​ All 1,000 seeds should receive the supplement.
D.​ No changes to the experiment are needed;
3. Inference from sample statistics and margin of error
𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 × 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 = 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 ± 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
The larger a sample size is, the smaller the margin of error will be.

Question 1.
Angel Cruz 483

Terry Smith 320

The table shows the results of a poll. A total of 803 voters selected at random were asked which candidate they
would vote for in the upcoming election. According to the poll, if 6,424 people vote in the election, by how
many voters would Angel Cruz be expected to win?
A.​ 163 C.​ 3,864
B.​ 1,304 D.​ 5,621

Question 2.
From a population of 50,000 people, 1,000 were chosen at random and surveyed about a proposed piece of
legislation. Based on the survey, it is estimated that 35% of people in the population support the legislation,
with an associated margin of error of 3%. Based on these results, which of following is a plausible value for the
total number of people in the population who support the proposed legislation?
A.​ 350 C.​ 16,750
B.​ 650 D.​ 31,750

Question 3.
To estimate the proportion of a population that has a certain characteristic, a random sample was selected from
the population. Based on the sample, it is estimated that the proportion of the population that has the
characteristic is 0.49, with an associated margin of error of 0.04. Based on this estimate and margin of error,
which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion about the proportion of the population that has the
characteristic?
A.​ It is plausible that the proportion is between 0.45 and 0.53.
B.​ It is plausible that the proportion is less than 0.45
C.​ The proportion is exactly 0.49.
D.​ It is plausible that the proportion is greater than 0.53.

Question 4.
A biologist selected a sample of adult female Kamer blue butterflies at random from a local population. The
mean forewing length of the butterflies in the sample is 1.5 centimeters. The margin of error associated with this
estimate for the population mean is 1 centimeter. If the biologist wants an estimate that has a smaller margin of
error associated with it and can be generalized to the entire local population, which of the following changes
should be made when the study is repeated?
A.​ Using a different tool to measure the butterflies
B.​ Measuring the butterflies at two different times of the day and comparing the results.
C.​ Selecting and measuring only the butterflies that look the smallest.
D.​ Selecting and measuring a larger random sample of butterflies.
Question 5.
An ecologist selected a random sample of 30 prairie dogs from a colony and found that the mean mass of prairie
dogs in the sample was 0.94 kilograms (kg) with an associated margin of error of 0.12 kg. Which of the
following is the best interpretation of the ecologist’s findings?
A.​ All prairie dogs in the sample have a mass between 0.82 kg and 1.06 kg.
B.​ Most prairie dogs in the colony have a mass between 0.82 kg and 1.06 kg.
C.​ Any mass between 0.82 kg and 1.06 kg is a plausible value for the mean mass of the prairie dogs in the
sample.
D.​ Any mass between 0.82 kg and 1.06 kg is a plausible value for the mean mass of the prairie dogs in the
colony.

Question 6.
A polling agency wanted to test whether a ballot measure would pass with greater than 50% yes vote. The
agency sampled 1,000 registered voters selected at random, and 50.6% of the voters favored the ballot measure.
The margin of error associated with this poll was ± 3%. Based on the poll’s results, which of the following
statements must be true?
A.​ The percentage of voters who will vote yes for the ballot measure is 50.6%.
B.​ The ballot measure will pass with more yes votes than no votes, but the percentage of votes it will
receive cannot be predicted.
C.​ The ballot measure will pass with at least 53.6% of the vote.
D.​ The poll’s results do not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the ballot measure will pass.

Question 7.
An analysis of a random sample of a type of laptop computer battery estimated that the mean working time was
4.7 hours with a margin of error of 0.7 hours. Which of the following is the most appropriate conclusion based
on this analysis?
A.​ This type of laptop computer battery has a mean working time of at least 4.7 hours.
B.​ This type of laptop computer battery has a mean working time of at least 5.7 hours.
C.​ This type of laptop computer battery has a mean working time of between 4.0 hours and 5.4 hours.
D.​ This type of laptop computer battery has a mean working time of between 0.0 and 0.7 hours.

Question 8.
A high school student council surveyed students to determine interest in an after-school computer coding
course. 100 students were selected at random from all students in the school. 47% expressed interest in the
course. Based on the margin of error, the student council expects that between 41$ and 53% of all students
would express interest in the course. What is the margin of error?
A. 47% B. 12% C. 6% D. 0%

Question 9.
A study conducted by a mobile phone company found that the average battery life of a random sample of its
phones is 4.6 hours, with an associated margin of error of 0.5 hours. The study was then repeated with a much
larger sample size, with the mean and margin of error of the new sample being calculated in the same way as
the original study. Which of the following is most likely true?
A.​ The margin of error from the new study is larger than the margin of error from the original study.
B.​ The margin of error from the new study is smaller than the margin of error from the original study.
C.​ The mean from the new study is larger than the mean from the original study.
D.​ The mean from the new study is smaller than the mean from the original study.